vs
-850 +600
UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Aug 24, 2024 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho Next Fight
Age 26
Height 6' 0"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 6' 3"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Michael Morales
5.68 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.26 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
1.04 TD Avg
41.0% TD Acc.
89.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Neil Magny
3.4 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
2.44 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
2.17 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Michael Morales
Moneyline
FanDuel -850
KO/TKO
FanDuel +220
Submission
FanDuel +650
Decision
FanDuel -105
Neil Magny
Moneyline
Caesars +600
KO/TKO
BetRivers +2500
Submission
DraftKings +3000
Decision
FanDuel +950
Michael Morales - Fight History
WIN vs Sean Brady
KO R1 3:27 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Brady 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Michael Morales 1 24 of 52 46% 24 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Brady 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Michael Morales 1 24 of 52 46% 24 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Brady 8 of 22 36% 5 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 7 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Morales 24 of 52 46% 24 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 1 21 of 47 0 of 1 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Brady 8 of 22 36% 5 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 7 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Morales 24 of 52 46% 24 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 1 21 of 47 0 of 1 3 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean Brady vs. Michael Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-142), Morales (+120)

Round 1
Blake Grice is the referee. Brady circles on the outside, probing with leg kicks. Morales flicks out a couple jabs. Morales continues to throw that jab and he’s gradually starting to find the range on it. Brady leaps in with a hook. Brady lands a hard low kick. Moraes rocks Brady with a right hand, and he tees off with a series of impactful punches during an ensuing barrage. Brady looks like he’s on wobby legs, but he’s able to eventually shove Morales off of him for a brief reset. Morales steps in with an uppercut. The long jab remains effective for Morales, who is brimming with confidence. Brady gets clipped with another right hand and Morales pressures forward with heavy punches. Brady is in survival mode so far, and he’s been unable to close distance to impose his grappling. Morales goes back to the jab, then clips Brady with a right hand over the top. Three more punches connect and Brady goes down. Morales drops a few hammerfists before Grice steps in to save a reeling Brady. The Ecuardorian’s undefeated run continues in impressive fashion, and he might have solidified his claim for a future welterweight title shot.

The Official Result
Michael Morales def. Sean Brady via TKO (Punches) R1 3:27
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Angelo picks Sean Brady, believing his relentless wrestling and pressure will stifle Michael Morales, who needs space to strike. He notes Brady's takedowns and control are elite, and Morales doesn't wrestle often despite his credentials. He hopes the line tightens and plans to bet on Brady.

"Brady's going to be the pick. I'm hoping this line continues to tighten... I like Shawn Brady here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Big Brady picks Michael Morales as a slight underdog, struggling with this fight. He acknowledges Sean Brady's elite wrestling and grappling but notes that if Brady can't get takedowns, he is vulnerable to getting knocked out, as seen in the Belal Muhammad fight. Brady believes Morales hits harder than Muhammad and has a size advantage, making him tough to take down early. He predicts Morales will stuff takedowns and knock out Brady in the first round.

first round knockout
"I'll go Morales by first round knockout here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Cody picks Morales despite acknowledging Brady's superior grappling. He highlights Morales's size, youth, reach advantage, and improving takedown defense. He notes that Brady's striking defense is poor and that Morales has power and unorthodox striking. Cody believes Morales can either knock Brady out or win a decision by outworking him on the feet.

"Morales may knock him out. But even if he doesn't, I think he can win just two of the three rounds and get a get a decision on the scorecards."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Connor picks Brady, citing his well-rounded game, strong wrestling, and improved striking composure. He notes that Morales is a raw athlete with no real game plan, relying on physical gifts. However, he flags a major X-factor: Morales has a 79-inch reach, which could cause Brady striking issues he hasn't faced before.

Odds: Brady opened -135, still -135; Morales opened +115, still +115.
"I'm still picking Sean Brady. Yeah, but I am saying there is actually a huge x factor here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Daniel is torn but leans toward Morales as a slight underdog. He acknowledges Brady's impressive recent form and top control, but notes Morales' freak athleticism, underrated takedown defense, and ability to power out of bad spots. He sees the fight as 50-50 and likes the plus money on Morales.

"I think I gotta go with the dog odds of Michael Morales here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Lucrative James picks Sean Brady to win, but with low confidence. He believes Morales' athleticism and power will be dangerous early, but Brady's superior grappling and cardio will take over in later rounds. He notes Morales' massive weight cut may affect his gas tank, while Brady has proven he can go five rounds. He expects Brady to survive the early striking exchanges and then dominate on the ground, possibly securing a submission or decision.

"I'm going to pick Shawn Brady in this fight. The level of competition for Shawn Brady has been higher, has been better."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Morales' freak athleticism, power, strength, and speed come through. He stops takedowns or works back to his feet, lands bigger shots on the feet, and gets a knockout victory.

knockout victory
"I expect the freak athleticism, power, strength, and speed of Morales to come through for him. ... I think he'll land bigger, better shots, which should lead to an eventual knockout victory for Morales."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Morales is getting better and that Brady's grappling might not work against a bigger, younger opponent. He mentions that Morales's career trajectory is upward and that he looks like a problem for the division. Paul thinks the first exchange will reveal how effective Brady's wrestling is, but he leans towards Morales.

"Morales is the pick for me as well for a pretty much all the things that you highlighted."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Sean Brady

The Guru picks Sean Brady to win, likely by submission or decision. He highlights Brady's superior grappling and physicality, which should overwhelm Morales, who has shown vulnerability to takedowns. Brady's dominant win over Leon Edwards is a key reference. The Guru acknowledges Morales' power but believes Brady's pressure and clinch work will be decisive.

"I'm gonna go with Shawn Brady. I think Brady's going to either win by submission or it'll be a close decision win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Brady. He emphasizes Brady's rock-solid wrestling and improved striking, and notes that Morales has never faced a high-level wrestler. He acknowledges the reach advantage but believes Brady's strength and experience will prevail.

Same odds commentary.
"I'm picking Sean Brady right there with you. But, you know, and I'll be really impressed with Michael Morales, if he can win this fight..."
WIN vs Gilbert Burns
KO R1 3:39 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Michael Morales 2 33 of 56 58% 35 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Michael Morales 2 33 of 56 58% 35 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 5 of 18 27% 4 of 13 0 of 3 1 of 2 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Morales 33 of 56 58% 31 of 52 0 of 0 2 of 4 25 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 5 of 18 27% 4 of 13 0 of 3 1 of 2 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Morales 33 of 56 58% 31 of 52 0 of 0 2 of 4 25 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 9
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-850), Burns (+575)

Round 1
In keeping with the theme of fights that promise action and intensity, the main event should be just what the doctor ordered. Former title challenger Burns (22-8, 15-8 UFC) may have his best days behind him, but “Durinho” is still as dangerous at it comes at 170 pounds. To keep himself in top contention, he will need to deflate the momentum of Morales (17-0, 5-0 UFC), who would like nothing more than to have a breakout performance at the expense of the vaunted grappler. Referee Herb Dean brings these two to the center of the cage to issue final instructions, and they stoically bump fists to seal the cage and make things official. It’s time for some action. It is Morales who claims the center of the Monster Logo on the floor, while Burns circles around him. Burns circles away from the power side of the Ecuadorian, and he lets loose a low kick that slaps loudly. When Morales retaliates with a calf kick, it is a thudding sound. Burns leaps forward to strike, and Morales dances out of the way and punches him around the back of the ear. Burns launches a kick up high, and Morales parries and lobs a jab back. Burns throws a fastball of a right hand that is well off the mark, but his check left hook does catch the chin. Morales lines up a heavy right hand that back off Burns, and he gets clipped by the older man. Burns marches him down looping hooks, and Morales rolls with the punches and jabs his way forward. Burns counters and takes a few more jabs on the nose, and he absorbs a thumping kick on his calf. Morales connects with a crisp uppercut, shaking up the grappler and forcing him to shoot for a takedown. Morales is dragged to his seat for a moment, and Burns wraps his arms around him as Morales stands. Burns leans in close and tight, but Morales pushes him back and unloads with power punches. Morales knocks Burns back to the wall courtesy of a clubbing right hand, and his onslaught slowly breaks Burns down and puts him on the ground.
Dean calls for Burns to fight back, and Burns answers by ducking under and grabbing his foe's legs awkwardly for some kind of desperation takedown. Morales steps over it, allows Burns to stand and lays into him with a blistering salvo of bombarding fists that puts “Durinho” down for the count again. This time, as Dean observes that Burns’ face is bleeding and he is in a bad way, he waves the fight off.
Burns sits up, but he does not protest, knowing that the day is not his. Morales has just passed the biggest test of his career with flying colors, destroying a durable top talent in the first round and not looking back. When Burns gets back to his feet, he needs a minute to recover, but he embraces the man who ran through him like no one has at 170 pounds. The 25-year-old handles the huge moment with poise, dedicating the victory to his mother and thanking her for her advice while declaring that he is ready for the next challenge, whatever that may be. Morales says he is healthy and ready to go, so with any luck, he will be back in the cage at least one more time this year. When he fights next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Michael Morales def. Gilbert Burns R1 3:39 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales confidently, citing that Morales is a better wrestler, striker, bigger, faster, stronger, and younger than Gilbert Burns. He notes that Burns is on the wrong side of 35 and coming off a loss to Sean Brady where his grappling was neutralized. Angelo questions what game plan Burns could have, as Morales is a national wrestling champion and Burns was just knocked out. He is shocked Morales is only -600 and expects the line to close at -1000.

Angelo is shocked Morales is only -600, expects line to close at -1000.
"Mic Morales is the pick. He's a better wrestler, a better striker. He's bigger. He's faster. He's stronger. He's younger."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Big Brady picks Michael Morales, citing Burns' age (38), three-fight skid, and declining durability. He notes Morales is a much better striker with volume and power, and expects him to find Burns' chin. He predicts a second-round knockout.

Morales by KO, round 2
"I like Morales. I like him quite a bit. ... I'll take Michael Morales to win this fight. And I think he's going to find the chin of Gilbert Burns. And I think he finds it within the first probably …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michael Morales

The host thinks Morales is a huge favorite but not justified given Burns' strength of schedule; Burns' three-fight losing streak came against top competition. He gives Burns the benefit of the doubt as a championship gatekeeper but worries if Burns can't dictate pace or get takedowns, his cardio fades and Morales can take over and knock him out. He picks Morales to win by knockout, but notes minus 800 is tough to get behind. He also leans under 3.5 rounds.

Morales by KO; under 3.5 rounds; odds comment: minus 800 tough to get behind
"I think the Ecuadorian improves his record to 18 and 0 by knocking out Gilbert Burns."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michael Morales

The Guru picks Michael Morales, calling him a crazy natural athlete who controls distance well and switches stances. He thinks Burns is past his prime and lacks the grit to engage, citing the Sean Brady fight where Burns didn't let his hands go. He believes the five-round fight benefits Morales' picking style and predicts a decision win (49-46). He notes the -850 odds are insane and thinks Morales is not that good, but still picks him.

Morales by decision (49-46); odds comment: -850 is insane
"I'm going to go with Michael Morales here over Gilbert Burns."
CANCEL vs Gilbert Burns
WIN vs Neil Magny
TKO (punches) R1 4:39 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Aug 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Morales 0 5 of 11 45% 13 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:05
Neil Magny 1 34 of 40 85% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Morales 0 5 of 11 45% 13 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:05
Neil Magny 1 34 of 40 85% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Morales 5 of 11 45% 1 of 7 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1
Neil Magny 34 of 40 85% 30 of 35 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Morales 5 of 11 45% 1 of 7 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1
Neil Magny 34 of 40 85% 30 of 35 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 35
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales confidently, calling himself a 'big Michael Morales guy.' He highlights Morales' national championships in freestyle wrestling and Muay Thai, his fantastic footwork, and his clean takedowns. He believes Morales is better than Magny everywhere and will win with accurate striking and takedowns. He notes Magny's age and recent comeback win but thinks Morales is the superior fighter.

"I think Morales is better than Magny literally everywhere literally everywhere I can't think of a single aspect in MMA where Neil Magny is better"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Cody picks Morales because he is a young, talented prospect with a judo background and power. He thinks Morales will outwork Magny and possibly get a finish. He notes that Magny has looked slow and flat-footed in recent fights and has been outworked by lesser fighters. He believes Morales' cardio is good and he won't fade like some prospects.

Michael Morales by decision
"sign me up for Michael Morales but at 850 at 850 we got to be talking about this thing like it is a slam dunk Surefire thing"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Michael Morales, arguing that Morales thrives in the clinch where Magny often beats opponents. He notes Morales' improving hands and wrestling background, and believes he will beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish.

finish
"I think is going to actually beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Brevin picks Magny as a big underdog, citing his experience against top competition, his size and reach advantage, and his grappling edge. He thinks Morales is overhyped and will get fraud-checked. He notes Magny is a gatekeeper who often wins these matchups. JP disagrees, picking Morales, calling Magny a 40-year-old gatekeeper who goes to decision and has shown his ceiling. JP thinks Morales is better and younger.

Magny by submission (potential)
"I'm gonna take another big Underdog here give me Neil Magny wow give me Neil Magny to get done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Paul takes a small shot on Magny at +600 because he thinks the line is too wide. He notes that Morales has looked good but has dropped rounds and hasn't faced a veteran like Magny. He thinks Magny's cardio and clinch work could give Morales problems if the fight goes deep. He admits Morales likely wins but the price is worth a small bet.

"I took a small poke on Neil magn at plus 600 um it's not going to kill me either way"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales because he believes Neil Magny is past his prime at 37 and does not check low kicks. He notes Morales is young (25), talented, and has good wins over Jake Matthews and Max Griffin. He expects Morales to attack the low kicks and stuff takedowns, winning on the feet.

"I'm going to go with Michael Morales um he beat Jake Matthews I think that's a decent win Max Griffin a decent win"
WIN vs Jake Matthews
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Morales 0 84 of 208 40% 84 of 208 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Jake Matthews 0 57 of 149 38% 57 of 149 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Morales 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jake Matthews 0 14 of 40 35% 14 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Morales 0 36 of 77 46% 36 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jake Matthews 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Michael Morales 0 22 of 58 37% 22 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jake Matthews 0 25 of 63 39% 25 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Morales 84 of 208 40% 45 of 157 12 of 17 27 of 34 80 of 197 4 of 11 0 of 0
Jake Matthews 57 of 149 38% 33 of 109 17 of 24 7 of 16 54 of 146 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Morales 26 of 73 35% 12 of 54 3 of 5 11 of 14 26 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jake Matthews 14 of 40 35% 7 of 26 6 of 11 1 of 3 13 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Michael Morales 36 of 77 46% 20 of 58 7 of 10 9 of 9 32 of 68 4 of 9 0 of 0
Jake Matthews 18 of 46 39% 13 of 37 3 of 3 2 of 6 18 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Morales 22 of 58 37% 13 of 45 2 of 2 7 of 11 22 of 56 0 of 2 0 of 0
Jake Matthews 25 of 63 39% 13 of 46 8 of 10 4 of 7 23 of 61 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jake Matthews vs. Michael Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-270), Matthews (+230)

Round 1
The winner of this co-main event may earn a place in the top 15 at welterweight. It could be undefeated 23-year-old wunderkind Morales (15-0, 3-0 UFC), or former wunderkind-turned-veteran Matthews (19-6, 12-6 UFC). Referee Herb Dean will know which one it is first, and he is confident this will be all above board. The 170ers calmly slap fists, and Morales snaps out a jab. Matthews does the same, as they use it as a rangefinder. Morales scores an inside leg kick that lands with a thump, and he just misses with a left hook. Morales bounces off the fence with a Superman punch that Matthews bats away, and Matthews backs him off with a right hand. Morales rebounds with a right of his own, and he slips in a jab to break up a combination that buzzes his hair. Matthews digs to the body as he eats a leg kick, and Morales’ jab has already reddened Matthews’ face up a bit. Matthews overswings and stumbles, and Morales lets him up so that he can stick the jab in his face. Morales connects with a slapping kick, and Matthews unloads with an overhand left that surprises his foe. Morales fires back with a right hand down the pipe, and Matthews staggers but does not fall down. The two reset and start trading calf kicks one after the other, and Matthews breaks the chain with a swatting left to the body. Morales sits down on a leg kick, and Matthews jabs him of his feet. Morales climbs back up and is quick to engage with a one-two, and he kicks out Matthews’ leg to drop Matthews to a knee. Matthews returns to his feet and blocks a trio of punched aimed at his mug. Morales plants a one-two on the jaw, and he looks to follow it with a flying knee but is caught in midair and hurled down to the mat. Morales springs back up as Matthews raises his eyebrows, and Matthews swings a right hand and gets jabbed back. Morales peppers the lead leg and comes up short with a jumping switch kick, and again Matthews raises his eyebrows. The Aussie surges forward with a left and a right, and Morales tanks them right on the chin and shrugs them off. Morales leaps at him with a flying knee, and he lands to attempt a takedown. Morales attempts one more Superman punch off the cage, and the tense round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales

Round 2
The welterweights bump their fists together before trading them. They feint leg kicks, and Morales jumps forward with a right hand. When Matthews attempts to respond, Morales digs his shin in the calf. Morales whiffs on a counter when Matthews pops him, and jumps forward with a stomp kick to the knee. Morales gets his jab going again, disrupting the overhand right from “The Celtic Kid,” and he stings Matthews with a long and powerful series of uppercuts. Matthews shakes his head when he escapes, and he chips at Morales’ calf and wings a right hand that comes up short. Matthews has a one-two bounce off gloves, and Morales answers him with a thudding kick to the calf that is showing some damage. Matthews paws out his own jab, and they both throw hands and catch the other. Morales shakes his arms out, and he turns to dodge the worst of a one-two coming at his face. Morales gets off a few inside kicks, and he jabs as Matthews kicks him back. Morales ducks a looping right hand and hops away from darting offense so he can counter with sharp strikes. Morales slips and rips with a right hand, and he does eat a right hand on the way out after landing a few strikes of his own. Morales peppers out the jab and eats a right hand for his effort, and he answers a few strikes with a Superman punch. Matthews digs to the body, and Morales rifles back a quick and dangerous right hand that snaps the head back. Matthews keeps a stiff upper lip as he eats a few jabs on the nose, and he swats out a left hook and keeps his guard up as Morales springs into action. Morales jump with a knee, a body kick, and he releases a long series of punches and a high kick at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales

Round 3
There is a final tap of the gloves to start off the last round, and Matthews strikes first with a kick from either leg. Morales shuts down a punch by working the lead leg, and Matthews beats him to the punch with a few additional strikes. Matthews fires off a one-two, and a leg kick that follows slams right into the 23-year-old’s cup. Morales groans as Dean calls time, and it does not take long before Morales signals he is ready to go. Just 30 seconds elapse before the fight resumes, and Matthews wants to take advantage of the discomfort by crowding his adversary with looping punches. Morales strafes away and counters, and he settles down and prods out a jab. Morales shakes his hands out and starts doing the Ali Shuffle, and he leaps into action with a knee that flies past the Australian. Matthews lunges with two punches, and Morales slides just to the side and counters with a right hand. Morales drives a kick to the calf, and Matthews stumbles. He kicks the same spot, and Matthews catches his leg and tries to take Morales down. Morales recovers his balance and swats away a jumping front kick. Matthews attempts a one-two, and Morales parries him with ease. When Matthews jabs the body, Morales kicks him on the inside of the leg. The unbeaten fighter continues working the leg on both sides, and he stays out of range from the power punches hurled back his direction. Morales lands a right hand after evading Matthews’, and Morales throws two punches and a body kick that strikes the peninsula south of the equator. Matthews groans from the foul, and Dean pauses the fight for a few seconds before Matthews waves them back on. Matthews charges with a pair of punches, and Morales steps to the side and releases two kicks with the same leg in rapid succession. Morales drives a shovel uppercut that brushes the beard, and Matthews goes after him and puts hands on his opponent. Morales throws back, keeping composed and still barely breaking a sweat after nearly 15 minutes of activity. Matthews tries to corner him and lay into him, and Morales pushes him away and snipes him with an uppercut. With 15 seconds to go, the Ecuadorian attempts a takedown, and Matthews shuts it down and lets his hands go. They brawl it out to end the fight, with a jump knee by Morales mixed in during the final slugfest. They hear the final bell, and hug it out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales (30-27 Morales)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales (30-27 Morales)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales (30-27 Morales)

The Official Result
Michael Morales def. Jake Matthews via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo is very confident in Michael Morales, calling him an incredible prospect with wrestling and Muay Thai credentials. He notes Morales has cardio and finishes fights. He thinks -255 feels like a discount and that Morales can be parlayed. He expects Morales to dominate.

Odds comment: minus 255 feels like a discount; can be parlayed
"Michael Morales is the very confident pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Michael Morales

Big Brady thinks Matthews' wins are against low-level competition and that Morales has a massive reach advantage (7 inches), higher volume, and power. He notes Matthews gets knocked down often, as in the Semelsberger fight. He predicts Morales wins by decision, citing the reach, volume, and strength as key differences.

"I'm going to take Morales to win this fight by decision I think the power the reach the size is going to be the difference here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Cody picks Michael Morales confidently, citing his youth, physical strength, and 92% takedown defense. He notes that Jake Matthews struggles against decent competition, has low striking volume, and poor durability. Morales has a 6-inch reach advantage and can win by knockout or decision. Cody expects Morales to out-strike Matthews and stuff takedowns, leading to a win.

"Morales should be the Victor so that that is the pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Michael Morales

Morales is a physical specimen with power and takedown defense. Matthews is inconsistent and may struggle to take Morales down, forcing him to strike where Morales has the advantage. Morales is faster and stronger, and will likely land a knockout in the first or second round.

win inside the distance
"I still believe Morales gets his hand raised and I think he does it inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Morales' reach advantage and ability to keep the fight at range. He mentions Morales' judo background and confidence on the ground. Paul thinks the line is a bit wide but expects Morales to show improvements and win.

"I'm with you Michael Morales minus 310 for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales over Jake Matthews, predicting a decision win with Matthews getting knocked down in key moments. He criticizes Matthews as a boxer with a double leg who doesn't surprise opponents. He notes Morales' reach, power, and dynamism as the difference, and compares Matthews' performance to a Matt Semelsberger-like showing.

decision 30-27, Matthews knocked down
"I'm going to go Michael Morales... I think the reach difference, the power difference, the dynamic difference... is going to be the difference here."
WIN vs Max Griffin
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Morales 0 36 of 102 35% 39 of 105 0 of 8 0% 0 0 2:10
Max Griffin 0 72 of 164 43% 73 of 165 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Morales 0 11 of 26 42% 13 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:14
Max Griffin 0 15 of 40 37% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Michael Morales 0 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Max Griffin 0 31 of 70 44% 31 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Michael Morales 0 10 of 38 26% 11 of 39 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:51
Max Griffin 0 26 of 54 48% 27 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Morales 36 of 102 35% 28 of 93 4 of 4 4 of 5 35 of 99 1 of 3 0 of 0
Max Griffin 72 of 164 43% 59 of 145 5 of 8 8 of 11 68 of 159 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Morales 11 of 26 42% 8 of 22 1 of 1 2 of 3 11 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0
Max Griffin 15 of 40 37% 9 of 31 3 of 4 3 of 5 13 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Michael Morales 15 of 38 39% 10 of 33 3 of 3 2 of 2 14 of 36 1 of 2 0 of 0
Max Griffin 31 of 70 44% 30 of 67 1 of 2 0 of 1 29 of 67 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Michael Morales 10 of 38 26% 10 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Max Griffin 26 of 54 48% 20 of 47 1 of 2 5 of 5 26 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Max Griffin vs. Michael Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-240), Griffin (+200)

Round 1
Welterweights take center stage in the “featured fight of the night” slot, as Griffin (19-9, 7-7 UFC) has clawed his way back towards a .500 record courtesy of four wins in his last five appearances. While the last 14 fights for Griffin have been 50/50, the same cannot be said about opponent Morales (14-0, 2-0 UFC), who is a perfect 14 up and none down. The two are 14 years apart, and referee Kerry Hatley stands guard for the battle of 14s. There is no glove touch, and Griffin is active early on moving from side to side and staying on the outside. “Pain” causes some early pain with low kicks, and he is met with sharp jabs from the unbeaten youngster. Morales reaches his foe with a looping one-two, and he backs off when Griffin kicks the inside of his calf. They both snap out jabs, but Morales’ is faster and prods the nose. Griffin swings and misses, with Morales dancing out of the way of the punches but not the follow-up leg kick. Griffin charges with a stream of punches, and Morales bends over to avoid them and leaps at his man with a jump knee. There is a reset period, and Morales then attacks again with a flying knee that claps off the cup of the American. Griffin waves Hatley off, and he surges into action with a takedown attempt. Morales turns him around and separates, but Griffin is on him and his left hand has developed some swelling on Morales’ right eye. Griffin presses his weight on his opponent, and he gets kneed in the face by the younger man. Morales shakes Griffin off to get away, and he leaps at his opponent with a Superman punch. Morales lands and comes out swinging, and Griffin backs him into the fence with a clubbing right hand. Morales jumps with another kick, and his foot once more bounces into Griffin’s cup. Hatley does not recognize it, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Morales claims the center of the cage and flashes out his jab. Griffin lunges in with a long left hand, and he backs away when Morales jumps at him with a kick. Morales tags Griffin with three punches, and Griffin shakes it out and gets staggered by a right hand. Morales charges into action, throwing so hard he almost falls over, and he rocks Griffin with another overhand right. Griffin sits down on a counter right, but Morales walks through it and is now in stalking mode. Griffin sticks him with a right but eats one right back, and his chin is durable and his counters effective enough to slow Morales down for a moment. Griffin gathers his thoughts and absorbs a jab, and he skirts out of the way when Morales tries to bust him in the chops. Morales flicks out a few jabs to open a cut under Griffin’s left eye, and he stays composed and walks through a body kick to aim a right over the top. Morales lands two more jabs, and Griffin looks for an overhand right and backs away when Morales charges. Griffin lets loose with a leg kick, and he ducks a huge right hand that blows past his hair. Morales swings so hard that Griffin is able to duck it, change levels and go for a takedown. Morales shuts down the attempt and circles away, thanks in part to a kimura threat of his own. Morales pops his foe again with a few jabs, and he resets with a minute left in the round. Griffin blitzes but misses, and Morales nods at him and makes him backpedal. Morales tags Griffin with a Superman punch, and as he pours it on, a knee from up close bumps into Griffin’s cup and forces a 30-second pause. Griffin gets jabbed when they restart, and he throws a simultaneous head kick that is easily blocked. Morales jabs into a high kick, and he raises his arm in the air with a few seconds left in the round to lure Griffin into a slugfest. Morales gets off a few more shots before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales

Round 3
Five minutes remain, and it could be tied up going into this last round. They proceed to throw big hands, and Morales eats a left hook and nods. Morales pushes out a jab, and he slides away when Griffin throws a haymaker. Griffin misses with a head kick and attacks a takedown, and he gets nailed with a flying knee. Griffin bounces off the fence and the two gets back to striking range. Griffin tries to close in on his opponent, and he crashes right into Morales’ hip and bounces off the fence. Griffin manages to grab Morales from behind while the Ecuadorian leans against the cage, and he turns around and goes after a double. Lifting the unbeaten fighter off the ground, he dumps Morales down for a second. Morales hits a quick switch to move around and grab hold of Griffin’s back, before they split up. Morales jabs when he gets back to a safe berth, and Griffin responds with an overhand right. Griffin dings Morales with a left and presses him into the clinch, and there is no takedown to be found. Morales stands him up with a few punches after they break, and he jumps with a knee that crashes right into Griffin’s head. Griffin gets kicked low a few times to shake up his balance, and he tries to time a jab with a right hook. Morales leans back to dodge a sweeping left hook, and he takes a deep breath with a minute left. Morales ushers Griffin aside when Griffin charges recklessly, and he tries another jump knee that misses the mark. Griffin walks his foe down, and he chambers a big right hand and connects with it. The impact leads to a clinch, and he gets thrown to the mat by the unbeaten fighter for emphasis. Morales tries to get off some ground-and-pound, but the fight comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)

The Official Result
Michael Morales def. Max Griffin via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales, highlighting his credentials as a freestyle wrestling and Muay Thai national champion. He notes Morales's footwork, forward pressure, and clean takedowns. He believes Morales's offensive wrestling will be the difference, though Max Griffin is a live underdog. He mentions the moneyline is already juiced and will wait for props.

waiting for props
"I do think Morales is going to get this done I think the offensive wrestling is going to be the difference here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Big Brady picks Michael Morales to win by decision. He is high on Morales but cautions against the -240 line, noting Max Griffin is a tough veteran who has only been finished once. He thinks the fight will be close and could go to decision, where the UFC's preference for the undefeated prospect may favor Morales. He also notes Morales has multiple paths to win, including a finish or a close decision.

"give me Michael Morales to win this fight and Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Cody likes Morales' youth, power, and wrestling background. He notes Morales' wins over Trevin Giles and Adam Fugit show finishing ability. He acknowledges Griffin is a seasoned veteran but points out Griffin's low volume and lack of recent finishes. Cody thinks Morales' power and pressure will be too much, but he will watch the live market in case Griffin teaches him a lesson.

"I lean Morales but minus 250 like it's kind of the price tag that indicates he's going to knock him out and finish them pretty easily"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Daniel leans Morales due to his athleticism, youth, and potential improvements after a year off, but calls it a 'dog or pass' at -240. He acknowledges Griffin's experience, durability, and knockdown power, and notes Morales' defensive flaws (gets hit clean). He compares the situation to Jamahal Hill's loss to Paul Craig, suggesting a setback wouldn't ruin Morales' future. He is not confident enough to bet, as Griffin's plus-205 price is tempting.

dog or pass situation; Morales minus 240, Griffin plus 205
"I'm gonna lean towards the favorite but it's like clearly dog or pass I think"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

James briefly mentions this fight in response to a chat question, stating he sees Michael Morales knocking Max Griffin out. He does not elaborate further, but the statement is clear and confident.

"I just see Michael Morales knocking Max Griffin out."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Paul thinks the market is about right. He notes Griffin was taken down three times by Tim Means and that Morales can mix in wrestling. He sees Morales as a high-potential prospect and is not willing to bet against him against an aging Griffin. Paul believes Morales will win, possibly by using his wrestling.

"Morales will be the pick for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

The Guru picks Michael Morales, despite some sloppy moments in his last fight against Adam Fugitt. He notes Morales's youth (24), reach advantage, and consistency, while Max Griffin is hit-or-miss and older. He believes Morales's talent is above Griffin's level and predicts a win, possibly a finish.

"I am gonna have to go with Michael Morales here on talent I think he's way above Max Griffin"
WIN vs Adam Fugitt
TKO (punches) R3 1:09 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Morales 2 83 of 151 54% 89 of 157 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Adam Fugitt 0 64 of 113 56% 70 of 120 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Morales 0 26 of 50 52% 29 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Adam Fugitt 0 25 of 42 59% 30 of 48 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:31
2 Michael Morales 0 32 of 70 45% 34 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Adam Fugitt 0 32 of 58 55% 33 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:08
3 Michael Morales 2 25 of 31 80% 26 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Adam Fugitt 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Morales 83 of 151 54% 74 of 140 7 of 9 2 of 2 64 of 127 12 of 17 7 of 7
Adam Fugitt 64 of 113 56% 32 of 74 20 of 26 12 of 13 58 of 99 6 of 10 0 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Morales 26 of 50 52% 20 of 43 5 of 6 1 of 1 22 of 46 3 of 3 1 of 1
Adam Fugitt 25 of 42 59% 10 of 25 8 of 9 7 of 8 24 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 4
2 Michael Morales 32 of 70 45% 29 of 66 2 of 3 1 of 1 28 of 63 4 of 7 0 of 0
Adam Fugitt 32 of 58 55% 15 of 36 12 of 17 5 of 5 28 of 50 4 of 8 0 of 0
3 Michael Morales 25 of 31 80% 25 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 18 5 of 7 6 of 6
Adam Fugitt 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Big Brady picks Michael Morales to win by first-round knockout. He is very high on Morales, citing his physical strength, offensive wrestling, takedown defense, and power. He notes Fugitt is on short notice and outmatched. He acknowledges Morales is hittable but believes he runs through Fugitt.

"give me morales to win give me morales to win by first round knockout i think it gets it done here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Cody picks Morales, describing him as a promising young fighter with a judo brown belt, BJJ brown belt, and national wrestling team experience. He notes that Fugitt is a short-notice replacement who shouldn't be in the UFC. He thinks Morales will take him out inside the distance, likely by TKO/KO, because Fugitt is not durable. He also mentions that Morales is strong, physical, and improving quickly.

Morales inside the distance by TKO/KO
"i think morales has got him snuffed out i like the kid i like the kid... i would think morales inside the distance specifically by tko or ko"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Daniel is high on Morales, calling him a very talented prospect with wrestling, knockout power, and size. He notes the massive speed and athleticism advantage over Fugitt. He warns about Morales' maturity after receiving a $50k bonus, but thinks as long as he stays focused, he will win. He predicts a knockout, saying Fugitt is too slow. He calls the -600 line justified but does not bet due to the price.

Predicts Morales by knockout
"I'm gonna go Michael Morales by knockout here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Adam Fugitt

Preet took a shot on the over 1.5 rounds at -103, banking on Fugitt's durability and ability to make it a clinchy, grinding fight. He acknowledges Morales should win but sees value on Fugitt's side, noting his wrestling background and pressure. He may also place a half-unit on Fugitt's moneyline if it reaches +500.

over 1.5 rounds -103
"i took a shot on the over one and a half at minus 103"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Paul also picks Morales, agreeing that Fugitt is a short-notice replacement who shouldn't be in the UFC. He notes that Morales is young, strong, and has a promising future. He thinks Morales will win, possibly inside the distance, but the price is steep. He also mentions that the over/under is 1.5 rounds with juice to the under.

"yeah we were both picking morales it's just you know you have to pay the price to pay uh to play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Michael Morales

The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales by submission (d'arce choke) in round two. He expects Fugitt to have some early success with takedowns and clinch work, but Morales will find his timing in round two, land big shots, stuff a takedown, and cinch the choke. The Guru notes Morales' ability to compose himself after early adversity.

submission in round 2
"second round submission i think he gets a dash choke over adam future here"
WIN vs Trevin Giles
TKO (punches) R1 4:06 · UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Jan 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Morales 1 26 of 42 61% 28 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:05
Trevin Giles 0 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Morales 1 26 of 42 61% 28 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:05
Trevin Giles 0 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Morales 26 of 42 61% 23 of 39 0 of 0 3 of 3 12 of 24 0 of 0 14 of 18
Trevin Giles 8 of 15 53% 3 of 10 1 of 1 4 of 4 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Morales 26 of 42 61% 23 of 39 0 of 0 3 of 3 12 of 24 0 of 0 14 of 18
Trevin Giles 8 of 15 53% 3 of 10 1 of 1 4 of 4 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales, calling him a killer with national championships in wrestling and Muay Thai. He notes Morales' footwork and jab, and believes he is better everywhere except pace. He sees Trevin Giles as a good measuring stick but expects Morales to win.

"i think morales is going to win this fight i think he's better everywhere except the actual pace and my only concern is that trevin may just march forward stay in morales face which could give him a hard time …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Big Brady picks Michael Morales to win a close decision, citing his volume, reach advantage, and well-rounded game. He heavily criticizes Trevin Giles for poor fight IQ, cardio, and low volume, and notes Giles is cutting to 170 which is a concern. He acknowledges Giles has a grappling advantage but doesn't trust him to fight smart. He expects Morales to outpoint Giles in a close fight.

Morales by decision; mentions Giles cutting weight and poor fight IQ
"i'm gonna take michael morales to win a decision here but i think it's gonna be very very close"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

Cody picks Trevin Giles as an underdog, citing Giles' experience against higher-level competition and his well-rounded skills. He notes that Giles has fought at 205 and 185, and moving to 170 may benefit him. Cody acknowledges Giles' cardio issues and past submissions, but believes his boxing and grappling are superior to Morales'. He sees this as a dog-or-pass situation.

"I would say this is a dog or pass situation... I'm going to go with the underdog Trevin Giles here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Daniel Levi picks Michael Morales but admits he is hesitant and will not bet the fight. He acknowledges the classic spot where an unproven prospect faces a grizzled vet at dog money, which often goes the vet's way. However, his gut tells him Morales is the more talented fighter and will get it done. Levi notes that Giles has a history of making mistakes and getting choked out, but also that Morales could suffer from debut nerves. He compares it to the Ignacio vs Makdessi fight where the better fighter didn't win.

No bet; straight pick only
"my gut was telling me morales is going to get this one done but my gout also told me that ignacio would beat macdessey"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

The host is skeptical of Morales being a favorite given his unproven competition. He notes that Giles is a tested veteran with fast hands and good movement, and that Morales has not faced anyone like Giles. He thinks Giles can use his jab and movement to discourage Morales and win a decision. However, he admits he is not a big Giles fan and may not bet it, but his prediction is Giles by decision.

Giles by decision
"i'm actually leaning giles on the spot i'm not a big jobs guy myself so i don't think i'll actually be placing a bet on it but in terms of a prediction it's hard to pick against a guy that's …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Paul picks Michael Morales, noting his youth (22) and wrestling from the contender series. He acknowledges that Morales' striking is a work in progress but believes his ceiling is higher. Paul is not a fan of Trevin Giles, citing his underwhelming UFC run and cardio issues. However, he is not highly confident and suggests this fight could be passed.

"I'm going with the kid 22 years old... I've never been a Trevin Giles guy and I won't be today."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michael Morales

The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales, praising his stand-up, grappling, and all-around skills. He notes Giles' recent KO loss and poor performance against James Krause on short notice. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision, with Morales schooling Giles on the feet for three rounds.

"i'm going to go with michael morales 3027 unanimous decision winning every single round on the feet"
Neil Magny - Fight History
LOSS vs Yaroslav Amosov
Submission R1 3:14 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 5 of 11 45% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yaroslav Amosov 0 9 of 19 47% 13 of 27 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 5 of 11 45% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yaroslav Amosov 0 9 of 19 47% 13 of 27 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 5 of 11 45% 2 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yaroslav Amosov 9 of 19 47% 3 of 12 0 of 0 6 of 7 8 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 5 of 11 45% 2 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yaroslav Amosov 9 of 19 47% 3 of 12 0 of 0 6 of 7 8 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Yaroslav Amosov vs. Neil Magny
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Amosov (-400); Magny (+300)

Round 1
Your guess is as good as ours as to what the deal was today with this welterweight pairing. Once buried on the prelims, it now headlines them in open defiance of a rumor swirling that Magny was forced out of the fight. Still very much on the card, grizzled veteran and proud trap fight setter Magny (31-13, 23-12 UFC) may be the biggest underdog on the card despite being on his first win streak since 2022. The reason for the odds discrepancy is because he is facing once-beaten former Bellator king Amosov (28-1, 0-0 UFC), who had a de facto tune-up fight in March against Curtis Millender on the regionals before bouncing into the UFC. Grappling is likely about to be the name of the game for the next 15 minutes or fewer, and referee Herb Dean will oversee the proceedings. There is no sign of a glove touch between the two.
Magny leads the dance with a leg kick, and Amosov throws one back that is checked. Magny jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and he dodges to avoid a looping counter. Magny sticks and moves, and he leans as a head kick grazes the side of his melon. Magny’s jab puts him too close to the wrestler, who grabs hold of him and tries to perform a double from behind. He chains it into a single, and Magny breaks out of it all and pops Amosov with a jab and a knee. They tie up, and Amosov looks for a short shot but takes a few more knees. The clinch leads to Amosov going for a single, and Magny falls to his back as Amosov establishes half guard. Amosov wraps his left arm around the head, possibly setting up an arm-triangle choke while simultaneously looking to pass guard with his legs. Magny controls his foe’s left arm to thwart a submission coming together, as well as a guard pass.
Amosov nails his foe with a short left, and he climbs up and over to grab hold of an anaconda choke while skipping straight past mount. The Ukrainian rolls through it to hold on in a nearly north-south posture, and the submission is now ironclad. Magny pushes off on his adversary’s ankle, arm and anything else he can grab hold of, hoping to get some space and save himself, to no avail.
Before he goes out on his shield, Magny taps out on Amosov’s posterior. Just like that, “Dynamo” has passed his first UFC test with flying colors, putting away a longtime veteran in just a couple minutes. On the microphone, Amosov introduces himself to his new company, saying “hi” to the other men at 170 pounds that he can dance with soon.

The Official Result
Yaroslav Amosov def. Neil Magny R1 3:14 via Submission (Anaconda Choke)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Yaroslav Amosov

Cody picks Amosov, citing his elite takedown defense and striking. He acknowledges Magny's experience and cardio but thinks Amosov's skills will prevail. He expects Amosov to win the first two rounds and possibly finish.

"Give me Amosov here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Yaroslav Amosov

Connor also picks Amosov, but notes that Amosov has cut back on his striking and become more grappling-focused, which could be a problem against certain opponents. However, he believes Magny is a good matchup for Amosov's style. He foresees a dominant win but warns that Amosov may struggle against fighters like Ian Garry who can stuff takedowns.

"I think this will be a good fight for him. I foresee him having a dreadful fight with ian gary... but I'm glad he's here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Yaroslav Amosov

Lucrative James picks Yaroslav Amosov confidently, highlighting his elite wrestling and submission skills. He notes Neil Magny's history of being submitted and outgrappled, and believes Amosov will pass the 'Neil Magny test' with a submission. He projects Amosov as a -300 favorite.

"I'm actually going to go out there and pick Yarislav Amos to submit him, you know, to finish what Jake Matthews started."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Paul leans toward Magny as a live dog, citing too many question marks with Amosov's activity and motivation. He thinks Magny's experience and cardio could pay off if Amosov fades, but is not confident enough to lay the price. He suggests live betting Magny.

"Dog or pass. Neil Magny at plus 300 is never... Live bet him after the first round and you get a better price."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Yaroslav Amosov

Zane picks Amosov confidently, predicting a dominant grappling performance. He notes that Magny is bad off his back and that Amosov's wrestling and top pressure will be too much. He compares it to Magny's losses against strong wrestlers like Gilbert Burns and RDA. He expects Amosov to get a takedown early and transition to a submission.

Odds: Amosov opened -500, now -400; Magny opened +375, now +300. Zane is okay with the odds.
"I do think he's gonna run shop on the Omegne. I think this is actually the kind of fight where this is gonna look a lot more like Neil Magni versus Gilbert Burns."
WIN vs Jake Matthews
Submission R3 3:08 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jake Matthews 0 18 of 44 40% 28 of 54 0 of 1 0% 3 1 4:43
Neil Magny 0 31 of 57 54% 73 of 103 3 of 5 60% 1 0 2:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jake Matthews 0 9 of 20 45% 10 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:22
Neil Magny 0 18 of 32 56% 24 of 38 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:08
2 Jake Matthews 0 7 of 16 43% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:53
Neil Magny 0 7 of 14 50% 22 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Jake Matthews 0 2 of 8 25% 4 of 10 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:28
Neil Magny 0 6 of 11 54% 27 of 36 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jake Matthews 18 of 44 40% 11 of 36 4 of 4 3 of 4 15 of 37 2 of 4 1 of 3
Neil Magny 31 of 57 54% 28 of 52 1 of 2 2 of 3 29 of 52 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jake Matthews 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 3 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
Neil Magny 18 of 32 56% 16 of 30 0 of 0 2 of 2 18 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jake Matthews 7 of 16 43% 5 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 3
Neil Magny 7 of 14 50% 7 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 1 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jake Matthews 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0
Neil Magny 6 of 11 54% 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jake Matthews vs. Neil Magny
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-475); Magny (+350)

Round 1
Two of the most experienced welterweights in the company wage battle as the main card rolls on, with betting lines a lot wider than most would expect. A substantial favorite of -400 or above, the younger Matthews (22-7, 15-7 UFC) is on his first three-fight win streak in five years. On the other side of the coin, the 38-year-old Magny (30-13, 23-12 UFC) has dropped two of three, all knockouts. The respectful gentlemen will not likely need any refs to keep things clean, but they nevertheless will be joined by referee Jim Perdios. A cordial fist bump is exchanged.
The two swat at one another early with single distant strikes, and Matthews have wider arcs on them but are less accurate. Magny bounces off the cage wall to let go with a low kick, and he is knocked back from a right hand. Magny recovers and flicks out his jab, and he takes a strong calf kick that gives him pause. Magny’s jab bounces off the forehead, and he pushes off the face and his finger grazes the eye. Perdios tells them to be careful, and they carry on.
Matthews chips at the front leg, and Magny spurs into action with a long flurry of punches that largely miss the mark. “The Haitian Sensation” goes after a takedown, and Matthews stops it in its tracks and backs Magny off with a clubbing right hand. Matthews digs a left to the liver and two rights to the head, and he lets Magny unload on him so he can counter back. Magny stays behind his jab, and when Matthews closes in, Magny ties him up. Matthews gets free, and Magny shoots in deep for a double. Matthews tries to defend with a guillotine on the way down, and Magny fights the hand to alleviate the pressure. Magny cannot fight off the choke, and Matthews rolls him over to full mount with one arm holding tight. Matthews squeezes with all his weight, and Magny relaxes and his right arm starts to fall to the side. Perdios waves the fight off right at the bell for a technical submission while saying, “he’s out,” and Magny immediately shouts “No” several times as he stands back up to declare that he is not out. Despite that Perdios called off the fight, he goes back on his decision and says that the fight is still on and that the round is over. This is extremely confusing, as Perdios came into contact with the fighters a moment before the horn sounded, so by definition it should go down as a tech sub or possibly a no contest due to a premature stoppage. Magny catches a serious break here, and he goes back to his corner mad as can be.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matthews

Round 2
We have reached Round 2 despite the stoppage-non-stoppage. Magny appears fine again, and Matthews lays into him with early offense. The punches and elbows from Matthews lead to a takedown from him, and he drags the grizzled veteran to the floor. From there, Matthews starts to impose his grappling game, comfortably shifting from position to position. “The Celtic Kid” relocates himself into a mounted triangle, with Perdios watching on closely. Magny hangs on tight, not giving up even in a bad, bad way. Magny manages to break out of the sub, but he still finds himself on his back absorbing strikes when not dealing with a submission attempt, setup or trap. Matthews softens up the midsection and moves to half guard, and he hunts for an arm-triangle choke at the same time. The dueling actions allow Magny to get out of the choke and wrap up his opponent. Matthews rides out the remainder of the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matthews

Round 3
The elder statesman presses the action to start the final round, and he strikes his way into a trip attempt. Matthews remains upright without issue, and he pushes Magny back to reset. Magny tackles his man to the canvas, and Matthews clings to a guillotine choke like before. With the choke in, Matthews uses his feet to walk across the cage wall and flip himself over, but Magny frees himself before getting mounted. Both stand up, and Magny knees the Aussie in the body a few times. Magny presses Matthews down to knee him in the face in the clinch, and he does work with body shots. Matthews busts out of the clinch and retreats, and Magny chases after him and hurts him with a combination of punches. Magny strikes his way into securing a takedown, and he steps into full mount. Matthews scrambles and turns over to get Magny off of him, and he counters with a single as Magny stands up. Magny lifts Matthews up during a takedown and was going to perform a pro wrestling move but spiking is illegal so he thinks twice.
Using his long arms, Magny laces them beneath Matthews’ armpits and under the throat with a surprise brabo choke. Matthews does not panic, even though he has taken some shots and may be fading. As Magny exerts heavy chest pressure with the choke tight as a drum, Matthews has no way out. Before long, he taps out, and Magny has staged the incredible comeback that would only be shocking if it was not Neil “Expletive Deleted” Magny.
Think back to Magny vs. Hector Lombard, or when he snared Daniel Rodriguez in a choke. For the latter, that was the last time Magny landed a submission—and it was a brabo choke then, too. The victor walks back to his corner grinning from ear to ear, even as the crowd does not like it. The story on this match may not be done here, depending on if there is an official review or appeal of the actions in the first round. For the time being, Magny has done it again, pulling off a third-round victory after taking a beating. Matthews is the first fighter repping Oceania tonight to come up short, with their record currently 7-1 with three more to go tonight.

The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Jake Matthews R3 3:08 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Angelo picks Jake Matthews, the biggest favorite on the card, citing his well-rounded skills and high level of competition. He believes Matthews will avoid Magny's clinch game and use takedowns and busy hands to win. He notes that Magny struggles against younger, faster fighters and that Matthews is not stupid enough to engage in a clinch battle.

"Jake Matthews is the pick. That's why he's a five to one favorite here. He was a six to1 favorite, so it did tighten a little bit, but I don't think that's a reflection of people losing confidence as much …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Big Brady picks Jake Matthews to win by second-round submission. He believes Matthews has finally put it together and is well-rounded with good boxing, wrestling, and BJJ. He thinks Magny is on the decline and has been submitted in six of his UFC losses.

second round submission
"Give me Jake Matthews. Give me Jake Matthews by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Cody picks Matthews, noting he has finally become consistent and is putting his skills together. He believes Matthews is a better striker than Magny now and can defend takedowns, forcing a striking match where Matthews should outland Magny. He also cites the hometown advantage and Magny's recent struggles against leg kicks and younger fighters.

"I got Jake Matthews at this line. He's the biggest favorite on the card, right?"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Connor also picks Matthews, agreeing that Magny's jab-dependent pressure game has faded. He notes that Magny's recent wins have come against opponents who fell apart, and that Matthews's improved combination punching and wrestling could exploit Magny's vulnerabilities. Connor is cautious because Matthews has a history of reverting to a bad back-foot boxing style, but he thinks Matthews's recent performances show he has moved past that.

"I think I'll go with Matthews."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

James picks Jake Matthews confidently, stating he is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, and power. He notes Matthews is in his prime at 31 and on the best run of his career, while Magny is an aging veteran with a poor ground game. He expects Matthews to take Magny down at will and possibly finish, but predicts a clear decision (30-27 or 29-28) as most likely.

"Jake Matthews is pretty confident pick here for me."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

James confidently picks Jake Matthews, noting he is the biggest favorite on the card. He predicts a finish, possibly by arm triangle, as Magny is older and has been finished recently. He believes Matthews is in his prime and should win easily.

by submission (arm triangle) or inside the distance
"I'm actually going to predict the finish here now."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

The host expects Matthews to take a grapple-heavy approach like his last fight. He acknowledges Magny could have an advantage if the fight goes into deeper water, but thinks Matthews will do enough in the first 10-12 minutes to win on the scorecards.

"I'm expecting Matthews to take another grapple heavy approach just like he did last time around against Chitty and Jakuani. I think he might meet some resistance here and should this fight go into deeper water, it could start to …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

The Guru picks Jake Matthews, believing his well-rounded game and experience against long fighters like Neil Magny will pay off. He notes Matthews' recent submission win and thinks he can replicate that success. He predicts a TKO via low kicks and follow-up shots, calling it a coming-out party.

TKO via low kicks
"I'm going to go with Jake Matthews getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Zane picks Matthews, citing his recent improvements in combination punching and assertiveness. He notes that Magny looks vulnerable on the feet now and has lost his ability to put pressure with his jab. Zane thinks Matthews's wrestling and willingness to mix it up could be key, as Magny has historically struggled against wrestlers. He acknowledges that Matthews's past struggles are a concern, but believes the current version of Matthews is better.

"I think I'll go with Matthews."
KO/TKO R2 4:39 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 42 of 67 62% 80 of 113 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:19
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 20 of 42 47% 42 of 69 1 of 5 20% 0 0 4:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 17 of 36 47% 29 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 18 of 36 50% 24 of 42 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:03
2 Neil Magny 0 25 of 31 80% 51 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:03
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 2 of 6 33% 18 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 42 of 67 62% 38 of 61 4 of 4 0 of 2 19 of 43 3 of 3 20 of 21
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 20 of 42 47% 5 of 24 4 of 5 11 of 13 17 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 17 of 36 47% 13 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 2 16 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 18 of 36 50% 5 of 20 4 of 5 9 of 11 15 of 32 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Neil Magny 25 of 31 80% 25 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 21
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Connor picks Zaleski, noting that Magny has looked increasingly hurtable and gun-shy, while Zaleski still has power and violence in his game. He acknowledges both fighters may be declining, but Zaleski's underlying physicality and scrambling ability give him the edge. Connor doubts Magny can replicate his past comeback wins.

"I got to pick Zaleski at that point."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Zane also picks Zaleski, pointing out that Magny's recent performances show a decline in output and durability. He notes that Zaleski has historically struggled against rangy strikers, but Magny's current form may not pose that threat. Zane believes Zaleski's wrestling and scrambling will be too much for Magny to handle.

"I mean, Zaleski's just more dangerous competitive wrestler and scrambler."
CANCEL vs Gunnar Nelson
LOSS vs Carlos Prates
KO (punch) R1 4:50 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Prates 0 10 of 20 50% 23 of 33 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:31
Neil Magny 2 12 of 21 57% 13 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Prates 0 10 of 20 50% 23 of 33 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:31
Neil Magny 2 12 of 21 57% 13 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Prates 10 of 20 50% 7 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
Neil Magny 12 of 21 57% 9 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 3 10 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Prates 10 of 20 50% 7 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
Neil Magny 12 of 21 57% 9 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 3 10 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-650), Magny (+470)

Round 1
Ever the “trap fight” connoisseur, Magny (29-12, 22-11 UFC) would like nothing more than to derail the quick rise of power-punching Prates (20-6, 3-0 UFC). The durable New Yorker by way of Colorado may be susceptible to getting blitzed early, but he also has the unearthly ability to outlast opponents and turn on the jets. Ask Hector Lombard, Mike Malott or Daniel Rodriguez, to name but a few. With five rounds to get things done, it could be a lot of fun until what could be a dramatic end. Referee Mark Smith is in it for the long haul, and he brings the welterweights to the center of the cage to bump fists. They do not bump fists. It’s on with the show. Magny strides into the middle of the Octagon to get going, where he uses his length with low kicks and jabs to surprise the Brazilian with a sudden level change. Magny goes after a single-leg takedown, pressing Prates to the cage but falling to his back. Magny lands on his back and closes his guard, with Prates posturing up for a second before Magny wraps him up again. Prates looks for one big right hand when he finds space, and Magny boxes his ears and tries to keep him tight. Prates works his way out of the grappling and stands back up, and he launches a leg kick only to have to deal with three lunging punches flying back his way. Magny come up close and elbows his opponent, looking for a trip and letting it go to chase Prates while dinging him with a right hand. Magny drops down for a single, and Prates hops out of danger and finds himself dealing with a second attempt as soon as he spins around. Magny lifts the limb up, and Prates’ balance is immaculate as he not only stays on his feet but lowers his leg back down. Prates gets off a single knee with his back to the wall, and Magny hangs on until Prates explodes out. Magny jabs from afar, and he leans to avoid a looping left hand. Prates has his left hand chambered, and he stops a double-leg entry and kicks Magny’s rear leg. Prates whips a left to Magny’s chest, and he knocks Magny down with a fierce short right hand. Magny is told to stand back up, and Prates walks him down, swarming him with punches. Magny bounces off the cage wall, kicking out with front kicks to keep distance before selling out for a single. Prates defends it, frees his trapped arm and walks Magny down. Magny snipes him from a long way out, with his reaching limbs effectively keeping “The Nightmare” at bay…until they don’t.
Prates unloads a monstrous left hand that does not even connect flush but buzzes the top of the veteran’s head. This is all it takes, with Prates apparently possessing “dim mak” as Magny falls to his face, unconscious. Prates walks off, knowing his work here is done, and everyone in the Apex is stunned as they may not have seen the mighty sleep-inducing blow.
“Breakthrough Fighter of the Year” may be well and truly sewn up, with Prates making his promotional debut in 2024 and scoring four knockouts, none greater than his annihilation of tricky vet Magny. The perennial contender comes to as Smith tends to him, and Prates dons the trademark Fighting Nerds glasses to celebrate his terrific handiwork. The Brazilian calls his shot, with very specific plans in mind: Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 312 in Australia. If this is too big of a gap, dispatching the UFC’s #15 Magny and moving on to a top-five adversary, he is reasonable and suggests he and Geoff Neal would engage in a wild one. No matter what the heavy-handed rising fighter gets next, we will be here for it—just like we will be ready for UFC 309 next week. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Neil Magny R1 4:50 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Angelo picks Carlos Prates despite Neil Magny's vast experience. He believes Prates is too accurate with good footwork to be caught in a takedown. He notes Prates' power and finishing streak (9-fight KO streak). He thinks Magny would need to wrestle without getting hit, which is unlikely. He expects Prates to make it 10 KOs in a row.

"Carlos prattes is the pick the odds do seem to be long gone though maybe they'll start to correct themselves"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Big Brady is confident in Prates, citing his speed, power, and range. He believes Magny is on the decline and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Prates will land a knockout in the second round.

Prates by KO/TKO, round 2
"I'll say second round for Carlos press there by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Cody agrees Prates is the favorite but warns about the wide money line. He notes Prates' unique style and finishing ability, but also points out that Magny has a grappling and cardio advantage if the fight goes past two rounds. Cody suggests a live bet on Magny if Prates doesn't finish early, but ultimately picks Prates.

Prates by KO, under 2.5 rounds, live bet on Magny if fight goes past two rounds
"Carlos Prates by knockout the under two and a half and yet the guy's been smoking darts and breaking hearts."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Magny's recent performances show a decline in activity and that Prates is smart enough to kick the legs and avoid Magny's clinch. He thinks Magny's only path is if Prates makes a mistake, but he doesn't see that happening. Connor is confident Prates will win, likely by knockout.

"I think I will actually be surprised here if Neil Magny does not get knocked out."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Carlos Prates to win by knockout, citing Prates' calf kicks and Muay Thai as key weapons against Neil Magny. He notes that Magny's reach advantage won't be an issue because Prates is a big welterweight who can fight at range and in the clinch. Vreeland expects a finish, possibly in round four, referencing the Santiago Ponzinibbio fight where Magny was finished late. He also mentions Prates' jiu-jitsu black belt but predicts a KO.

Prates by KO (-300), Prates round 1 (+200), round 2 (+350), round 3 (+450), round 4 (+900), under 2.5 rounds (-215)
"I am gonna pick Carlos Prates to come out here and put Neil Magny as another member of his highlight reel, it's going to be a 16th knockout in my opinion."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win by KO, noting that Neil Magny's best days are behind him and that Prates has a strong win streak. He acknowledges that Prates has shown some vulnerabilities, such as being wobbled and dropping rounds, but believes Prates will eventually land a kill shot. He also mentions that Magny does well against southpaws, which could make the fight closer early, but ultimately expects Prates to finish him.

by KO
"Carlos pratez via KO is the final prediction"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carlos Prates

Prates is a -750 favorite and the perfect fighter to cause Neil Magny issues. He will use leg kicks to slow Magny down, then open up with combinations to find a big shot and finish him in the second or third round.

wins inside distance, round 2-3, odds -750
"prates finding himself as a minus 750 favor going into this matchup and it completely makes sense as he is the perfect architect of fighter that causes Neil Magny issues look for a lot of light kicks from proess to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Paul believes Prates is an absolute sniper with devastating power, as shown by knocking out Jin Jin Leang Lee. He thinks Neil Magny's only path is wrestling, but if he can't get takedowns, his striking won't scare Prates. Paul sees a knockout as almost inevitable and recommends the under 2.5 rounds or Prates by KO prop.

Prates by KO, under 2.5 rounds
"Carlos Prates by knockout seems like it's almost inevitable."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

The Guru picks Carlos Prates to win by TKO, citing Prates' Muay Thai style, low kicks, and finishing ability. He notes Neil Magny's poor leg kick defense and recent TKO loss two and a half months ago, suggesting Magny is vulnerable. He expects Prates to chew up Magny's leg early and finish with body shots in round two or late round one.

TKO win, low kicks, body shots finish, round 2 or late round 1
"I'm going to go with Carlos prattes getting this one done with prattes people are say are you Gary couldn't finish nil magnet dude mag Gary doesn't have power like that"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Zane is very high on Prates, calling him his favorite striker in MMA. He praises Prates' understanding of range, active defense, and ability to cut off opponents' offense. He believes Prates will outclass Magny, who has become inactive and is vulnerable to leg kicks and pressure. Zane expects a knockout.

"I'm picking Pratas very confidently here."
LOSS vs Michael Morales
TKO (punches) R1 4:39 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Aug 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Morales 0 5 of 11 45% 13 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:05
Neil Magny 1 34 of 40 85% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Morales 0 5 of 11 45% 13 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:05
Neil Magny 1 34 of 40 85% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Morales 5 of 11 45% 1 of 7 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1
Neil Magny 34 of 40 85% 30 of 35 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Morales 5 of 11 45% 1 of 7 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1
Neil Magny 34 of 40 85% 30 of 35 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 35
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales confidently, calling himself a 'big Michael Morales guy.' He highlights Morales' national championships in freestyle wrestling and Muay Thai, his fantastic footwork, and his clean takedowns. He believes Morales is better than Magny everywhere and will win with accurate striking and takedowns. He notes Magny's age and recent comeback win but thinks Morales is the superior fighter.

"I think Morales is better than Magny literally everywhere literally everywhere I can't think of a single aspect in MMA where Neil Magny is better"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Cody picks Morales because he is a young, talented prospect with a judo background and power. He thinks Morales will outwork Magny and possibly get a finish. He notes that Magny has looked slow and flat-footed in recent fights and has been outworked by lesser fighters. He believes Morales' cardio is good and he won't fade like some prospects.

Michael Morales by decision
"sign me up for Michael Morales but at 850 at 850 we got to be talking about this thing like it is a slam dunk Surefire thing"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Michael Morales, arguing that Morales thrives in the clinch where Magny often beats opponents. He notes Morales' improving hands and wrestling background, and believes he will beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish.

finish
"I think is going to actually beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Brevin picks Magny as a big underdog, citing his experience against top competition, his size and reach advantage, and his grappling edge. He thinks Morales is overhyped and will get fraud-checked. He notes Magny is a gatekeeper who often wins these matchups. JP disagrees, picking Morales, calling Magny a 40-year-old gatekeeper who goes to decision and has shown his ceiling. JP thinks Morales is better and younger.

Magny by submission (potential)
"I'm gonna take another big Underdog here give me Neil Magny wow give me Neil Magny to get done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Paul takes a small shot on Magny at +600 because he thinks the line is too wide. He notes that Morales has looked good but has dropped rounds and hasn't faced a veteran like Magny. He thinks Magny's cardio and clinch work could give Morales problems if the fight goes deep. He admits Morales likely wins but the price is worth a small bet.

"I took a small poke on Neil magn at plus 600 um it's not going to kill me either way"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales because he believes Neil Magny is past his prime at 37 and does not check low kicks. He notes Morales is young (25), talented, and has good wins over Jake Matthews and Max Griffin. He expects Morales to attack the low kicks and stuff takedowns, winning on the feet.

"I'm going to go with Michael Morales um he beat Jake Matthews I think that's a decent win Max Griffin a decent win"
WIN vs Mike Malott
TKO (punches) R3 4:45 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 57 of 102 55% 110 of 159 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:47
Mike Malott 0 45 of 67 67% 100 of 128 4 of 6 66% 0 0 6:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 5 of 25 20% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Mike Malott 0 20 of 31 64% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Neil Magny 0 6 of 15 40% 18 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 21 of 30 70% 67 of 79 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:08
3 Neil Magny 0 46 of 62 74% 80 of 98 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Mike Malott 0 4 of 6 66% 13 of 18 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 57 of 102 55% 52 of 95 3 of 3 2 of 4 13 of 44 0 of 2 44 of 56
Mike Malott 45 of 67 67% 19 of 40 4 of 4 22 of 23 30 of 49 0 of 0 15 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 5 of 25 20% 4 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 3 5 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Malott 20 of 31 64% 2 of 13 1 of 1 17 of 17 20 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Neil Magny 6 of 15 40% 4 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Malott 21 of 30 70% 14 of 22 3 of 3 4 of 5 9 of 17 0 of 0 12 of 13
3 Neil Magny 46 of 62 74% 44 of 60 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 44 of 56
Mike Malott 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-340), Magny (+270)

Round 1
With Malott looking to show he is a Top 15 fighter, and Magny aiming to prove that he can do more than man the velvet rope for that category even at age 36, only one is likely to get his wish. Kevin Macdonald is the referee. Both fighters are in orthodox stance, and Malott lands a front kick to Magny’s lead leg immediately. Magny comes forward behind a high guard and Malott goes back to the lead leg with another push kick. Moments later, he hits Magny with a calf kick to that leg, then another. A strategy appears to be emerging. Malott steps in behind an overhand right, and Magny meets him, grabbing a clinch. Malott immediately shoves him off. Malott surges forward with a pair of big looping hooks. They fall short but succeed in backing Magny straight to the fence. Malott throws a lightning-fast head kick, but Magny just as quickly steps inside and takes the clinch again. Malott drives Magny to the fence and pummels his way out of the position, moving away from the cage and forcing Magny to follow. Malott goes back to the leg kicks, all aimed at the lead left leg of Magny. Malott is now getting Magny to bite on hip feints, indicating the effect the kicks have had so far. Malott lands a glancing low kick at the 10-second clapper, the last offense of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 2
Magny throws a low kick to open the round, which Malott checks. Magny stalks forward and Malott gives ground, then plants and catches Magny with a clean two-punch combination that stings. Malott lands an inside kick to the lead leg, followed by a body kick on the other side. Magny comes crashing forward, but Malott uses a body lock to take him down, landing in full guard. Magny works to create some space to escape, but Malott more or less lets him up. Malott closes the distance again and uses a body lock and trip to dump the taller man to the floor at the base of the fence. Malott is in a sort of loose half guard, hovering over Magny, and when he dives in with an elbow strike, Magny locks down his right leg. Malott gets a few shots in from half guard, then stands over Magny. Magny throws a upkick and Malott jumps right back onto him, moving to mount. Magny spins to put his feet against the fence, looking to use the cage to bridge and escape, but Malott scoots him away from the cage and stays in mount, throwing methodical, heavy elbows and forearms. Malott isolates Magny’s left arm, perhaps considering a submission, but at the 10-second clapper gives up on it and throws strikes until the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 3
Malott throws a leg kick and backs Magny up with punches, then changes levels and more or less bowls him over for a fast takedown, landing in mount. Magny wraps his arms around Malott, keeping him from posturing up and doing major damage, then bucks and returns to his feet. Malott follows him across the cage and launches himself at his hips, scoring another easy takedown. Magny gets to full guard, then grapevines the legs, trying to keep Malott from going anywhere. Malott throws some short strikes before standing up out of guard and dives back in, but ends up in full guard again. Magny stands and Malott grabs a guillotine, pulling guard as he does, but Magny pops his head out and ends up on top, where he starts throwing punches with some urgency. Malott is suddenly looking exhausted and Magny is all over him. Malott turns to his side, but otherwise offers no real defense as Magny continues throwing a stream of unblocked punches with both hands. There’s less than 30 seconds left. Referee Macdonald is looking on closely, and as motivated as he might be to avoid any possibility of a quick stoppage, after at least two dozen unanswered blows, he interposes himself for the TKO with just 15 seconds left on the clock. What a comeback by the ageless, indefatigable Neil Magny.

The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Mike Malott R3 4:45 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Angelo picks Malott, viewing this as a showcase for the Canadian prospect. He acknowledges Magny's experience and toughness but notes Magny has looked declining in recent fights. He warns against overexposure on Malott since this is his toughest opponent, but plans to have some action on him.

Will have some action on Malott; avoid overexposure
"this has to be a Mike mot pick this is the matchup in Canada for a reason"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Big Brady is very confident in Malott, calling it a setup fight. He notes Malott is dangerous everywhere with 100% finish rate, while Magny is 36, has taken damage, and has been submitted six times. He expects Malott to get a takedown and submit Magny in the first round.

first round submission
"give be Mike mot to win this fight by first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Cody is confident Malott wins, citing his size, strength, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Malott's quick finishes but acknowledges Magny's durability and cardio. He suggests Malott by decision as a prop because Magny is tough to finish.

Malott by decision at +400 to +450
"Mot definitely the pick... the prop is a little tricky... maybe mot by decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Daniel Vreeland picks Mike Malott to win but is hesitant due to Malott's unproven ceiling and Magny's veteran tactics. He acknowledges Malott's dangerous finishing ability and guillotine series, but worries about Magny's clinch game and length. He notes Magny has been fading but has also been a tough fade historically. He passes on betting the -400 line.

"I'm going to pick Mike mot to continuous streak and show out"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Vreeland picks Magny as a dog, citing the massive step up in competition for Malott. He notes Magny's size, reach advantage, and ability to impose his game plan. Vreeland questions Malott's path to victory, doubting he can outwrestle Magny or overcome the reach disadvantage on the feet. He sees value in the plus money.

plus 310 dog money
"I am going dog that's going to surprise you probably right Neil Magny I had a feeling you Neil Magny big step up like this is this is a real big step up from lot unless Magny is totally from …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Fox also picks Magny, agreeing with Vreeland on the step up in competition. He notes Magny's reach advantage and good wrestling defense. Fox doesn't see a clear path for Malott, as Magny is a tall fighter who knows how to use his reach. He likes the dog money.

plus 310 dog money
"I don't really like the pass to Victory here from a lot do you think he's like gonna out wrestle Neil Magny like mag's got pretty good wrestling right like he he's at least defensively seems like he's got good …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Magny vs Malott.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mike Malott

I fully expect Malott to play with Magny on the feet, eventually drag the fight to the ground, and strangle him with a submission. Malott's grappling advantage is huge, and Magny has historically struggled against strong grapplers. The -365 line is a bit wide for a prospect against a veteran, but I think the fight will look like a cakewalk for Malott. I'm looking for a first-round submission.

submission victory, first round finish
"I fully expect Mike mot to play with Magny on the feet a little bit eventually drag this fight to the ground and strangle Neo Magny on route to a submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Paul agrees Malott wins but won't bet the -400 moneyline. He thinks Malott has the power and grappling advantage but Magny is durable and has gone the distance with top guys. He considers Malott by decision as a possible prop.

Malott by decision (mentioned as a possibility)
"I think mot wins... there's no way I touch the minus 400."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mike Malott

The MMA Guru picks Mike Malott, citing Magny's age and recent KO loss to Ian Garry. He trusts Malott's pressure and leg kicks, and predicts a submission via arm triangle in round two. He also mentions Magny's personal issues (custody battle) as a potential distraction.

submission, round 2
"I'm going to go with Mike Mallet I was going I was honestly hedging the idea of picking Neil Magny here"
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–24) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ian Machado Garry 0 27 of 66 40% 51 of 93 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:10
Neil Magny 0 91 of 150 60% 111 of 171 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ian Machado Garry 0 8 of 24 33% 22 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Neil Magny 0 20 of 32 62% 33 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
2 Ian Machado Garry 0 11 of 27 40% 15 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:05
Neil Magny 0 31 of 53 58% 35 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Ian Machado Garry 0 8 of 15 53% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Neil Magny 0 40 of 65 61% 43 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ian Machado Garry 27 of 66 40% 10 of 41 7 of 11 10 of 14 25 of 61 2 of 5 0 of 0
Neil Magny 91 of 150 60% 32 of 90 16 of 17 43 of 43 84 of 140 4 of 5 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ian Machado Garry 8 of 24 33% 3 of 15 1 of 2 4 of 7 7 of 21 1 of 3 0 of 0
Neil Magny 20 of 32 62% 5 of 17 4 of 4 11 of 11 19 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 1
2 Ian Machado Garry 11 of 27 40% 5 of 20 3 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 0
Neil Magny 31 of 53 58% 9 of 30 6 of 7 16 of 16 28 of 49 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Ian Machado Garry 8 of 15 53% 2 of 6 3 of 5 3 of 4 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Neil Magny 40 of 65 61% 18 of 43 6 of 6 16 of 16 37 of 61 0 of 0 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Angelo is confident in Ian Garry, believing his striking speed and timing will keep Neil Magny at range and prevent him from using his grappling. He notes that Magny is stepping up on short notice and that Garry has shown he can overcome adversity, as in the Song Kenan fight. He expects a clear decision win similar to Garry's win over Darian Weeks.

"Ian Gary is going to be the pick and I think this is going to look like when Ian beat Darian weeks... very confident in Ian especially with Neil magni stepping up on short notice."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Big Brady picks Ian Garry to win by third-round knockout, citing Garry's size, cardio, and power advantage. He notes Magny has been finished in 8 of 10 losses and struggled against Phil Rowe. Brady worries about Garry's striking defense but believes Magny lacks the power to exploit it.

win by KO, round 3
"give me Ian Gary to win this fight I'll take Ian Gary to win by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Cody acknowledges Garry's talent but notes his past struggles and poor takedown defense. He thinks Magny could pose problems with wrestling, but Magny looked washed in his last fight. He expects Garry to win, likely by decision, but doesn't love the -400 line. He suggests Garry may not add much value to parlays.

under 57.5 significant strikes for Garry; inside the distance possible but not confident
"I would take Gary now minus 400 again it's just not a money line that I love inside the distance if magnes completely washed sure inside the distance"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Daniel Levi is sold on Ian Machado Garry, calling him one of the best prospects in the welterweight division. He notes that Garry has good takedown defense, a solid get-up game, and has gone five rounds. Levi believes Garry will not fall into the trap of clinching with Magny, as other prospects have, because of his range management and footwork. He acknowledges the price is trash at -500 but still likes Garry to win.

Price is trash but Garry wins; minus 500 is too high but still a pick
"I've been sold since day one... the price is trash but I like Ian Gary in the spot"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Lucrative James picks Ian Garry to dominate, citing the 11-year age difference, Magny's short notice, and Magny's tendency to get finished when he loses. He believes Garry has a good chance of finishing Magny, though he notes Garry is more of a point striker. He prefers the finish prop over decision.

Ian Garry inside distance (plus 600)
"I honestly think Gary's gonna dominate this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Garry is the sharper striker and should land clean shots down the pipe. Magny struggles against technical strikers and has been finished before. Garry's ability to avoid the cage and pivot off will prevent Magny from grinding him. Expect a knockout finish, making the KO prop at even money a strong play.

Garry by KO
"I'd rather take a shot on that because if he's going to look that minus 400 in my opinion it's going to be with him getting his hand raised by finish in the spot I don't think it comes by …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

The MMA Guru picks Ian Garry over Neil Magny. He notes Garry's rapid improvement, judo background, and takedown defense. He thinks Garry will pick at range, chop at the legs, and possibly finish early. He also mentions Magny taking the fight on short notice and at 170 lbs, which favors Garry. He predicts a first-round KO after leg kicks.

round one KO after leg kicks
"I think he smokes Neil Magnum round one after chewing up his leg for about three minutes"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales confidently, calling himself a 'big Michael Morales guy.' He highlights Morales' national championships in freestyle wrestling and Muay Thai, his fantastic footwork, and his clean takedowns. He believes Morales is better than Magny everywhere and will win with accurate striking and takedowns. He notes Magny's age and recent comeback win but thinks Morales is the superior fighter.

"I think Morales is better than Magny literally everywhere literally everywhere I can't think of a single aspect in MMA where Neil Magny is better"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Cody picks Morales because he is a young, talented prospect with a judo background and power. He thinks Morales will outwork Magny and possibly get a finish. He notes that Magny has looked slow and flat-footed in recent fights and has been outworked by lesser fighters. He believes Morales' cardio is good and he won't fade like some prospects.

Michael Morales by decision
"sign me up for Michael Morales but at 850 at 850 we got to be talking about this thing like it is a slam dunk Surefire thing"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Michael Morales, arguing that Morales thrives in the clinch where Magny often beats opponents. He notes Morales' improving hands and wrestling background, and believes he will beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish.

finish
"I think is going to actually beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Brevin picks Magny as a big underdog, citing his experience against top competition, his size and reach advantage, and his grappling edge. He thinks Morales is overhyped and will get fraud-checked. He notes Magny is a gatekeeper who often wins these matchups. JP disagrees, picking Morales, calling Magny a 40-year-old gatekeeper who goes to decision and has shown his ceiling. JP thinks Morales is better and younger.

Magny by submission (potential)
"I'm gonna take another big Underdog here give me Neil Magny wow give me Neil Magny to get done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Paul takes a small shot on Magny at +600 because he thinks the line is too wide. He notes that Morales has looked good but has dropped rounds and hasn't faced a veteran like Magny. He thinks Magny's cardio and clinch work could give Morales problems if the fight goes deep. He admits Morales likely wins but the price is worth a small bet.

"I took a small poke on Neil magn at plus 600 um it's not going to kill me either way"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales because he believes Neil Magny is past his prime at 37 and does not check low kicks. He notes Morales is young (25), talented, and has good wins over Jake Matthews and Max Griffin. He expects Morales to attack the low kicks and stuff takedowns, winning on the feet.

"I'm going to go with Michael Morales um he beat Jake Matthews I think that's a decent win Max Griffin a decent win"
Comments (1)
BR
brian 8 months, 2 weeks ago

Nice legkick. Magny grabbed against the fence for a bit. Spread leg defense from Morales. Spinning elbow from from that. Dropped magny. Followed with diving punch, a bit more gnp. Morales back to feet, leg kick magny. Goes back to the ground gnp. Nice hip floats on chest. GNP. Magny turns and gets flattened. Punches ensue. Tko