Gerald Meerschaert

Angelo is extremely confident in Jacob Malkoun, calling Gerald Meerschaert washed and stating he has no chance. He criticizes Meerschaert's poor takedown defense and chin, and believes Malkoun's wrestling will dominate. He even threatens to ban anyone who picks Meerschaert by submission.

Cody picks Malkoun by TKO, noting Meerschaert's recent knockout losses and Malkoun's improved striking. He believes Malkoun will finish him early, possibly in the first round.

Connor agrees with Zane, calling Malkoun a smart technician who uses his jab and single-leg effectively. He notes that Meerschaert is a slow, aging fighter who relied on opponents being bad, and now faces a composed fighter who won't make those mistakes. He sees it as a clear win for Malkoun.

Daniel Vreeland picks Jacob Malkoun to knock out Gerald Meerschaert in the first round. He believes Malkoun's high pace and power will overwhelm Meerschaert, who he thinks is past his prime and likely to cover up when hit.

Malkoun is a massive favorite with an implied probability of 92%, but the odds offer no value. He is a solid MMA grappler with better wrestling, striking, cardio, and home advantage. Meerschaert is old, missed weight, and only has a Hail Mary submission path. The over 1.5 rounds at 1.64 is interesting because Malkoun is a decision eater and Meerschaert is tough, but not super confident due to Meerschaert's decline.

Lucrative James picks Jacob Malkoun to win via TKO. He believes Malkoun is a much better fighter and that Meerschaert is washed up. He notes Malkoun's wrestling and improved striking should be enough to finish Meerschaert, though he is not super confident on the method.

The host expects Malkoun to run through Meerschaert, citing Malkoun's superior BJJ, youth, and striking. He thinks Malkoun will get a TKO or submission inside the distance, as Meerschaert is on a four-fight losing streak and his durability is fading. The host does not like betting minus 1000 but expects a finish.

Paul picks Malkoun, citing his improved boxing and wrestling. He believes Malkoun will knock out Meerschaert, who has been knocked out repeatedly in the first round.

The MMA Guru picks Jacob Malkoun, noting he is a -1100 favorite but thinks the odds are too high. He praises Malkoun's skills and recent performances, while criticizing Gerald Meerschaert's recent losses and age. He acknowledges Meerschaert's submission threat but believes Malkoun is too good.

Angelo picks Kyle Daukaus, noting that Gerald Meerschaert has poor takedown accuracy and hasn't taken anyone down in three fights. Daukaus is a good grappler with length and solid takedown defense. Angelo is confident but questions the -325 odds, suggesting Daukaus' last win was against a distracted opponent.

Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus, noting his improved striking and power since being cut from the UFC. He criticizes Gerald Meerschaert's chin as 'dust' and his recent poor performances, including gassing out badly. Brady believes Daukaus is the better grappler and striker at this point and predicts a first-round knockout, referencing Daukaus's own claim that he will knock out Meerschaert.

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Meerschaert is on a losing streak and has been knocked out multiple times. He points out that Daukaus is bigger and has better striking. Cody thinks Daukaus will finish the fight inside the distance, possibly by TKO in the first round. He is confident in the pick.

Connor also picks Daukaus, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Meerschaert has lost a step and that Daukaus showed aggression and certainty in his last fight. However, he warns that Daukaus might get overly ambitious and get submitted, but overall trusts Daukaus to win.

Daniel believes Daukaus is on a resurgence with newfound confidence and power, as shown in his knockout of Michelle Pereira. He expects Daukaus to feast on an aging Meerschaert, who has been finished in recent fights. He predicts a first-round knockout for Daukaus.

Lucrative James picks Kyle Daukaus to win, stating that Gerald Meerschaert is washed and Daukaus has better striking and grappling. He notes Daukaus' resurgence after a first-round KO in his return fight, and believes his takedown defense and top control will neutralize Meerschaert's submission threats. He predicts a finish or clear decision for Daukaus.

Daukaus is a better and younger version of Meerschaert. He can win whichever way he chooses, whether by knockout or submission. He wins inside the distance.

Paul picks Daukaus, citing his size, striking, and submission defense. He notes that Meerschaert has poor durability and has been knocked out frequently. Paul believes Daukaus will win by TKO, possibly in the first round. He also mentions that Daukaus has looked good on the regional scene and is a big middleweight.

The Guru picks Kyle Daukaus to win by TKO in round two. He notes that Gerald Meerschaert is on a three-fight losing streak and aging, while Daukaus is coming into his prime with improved striking and grappling. Daukaus' clinch work and power should be too much for Meerschaert, who may no longer have the craftiness to pull off a submission.

Angelo notes Oleksiejczuk is a pure striker with power and fast hands, while Meerschaert is a grappler with questionable chin and takedown accuracy. He thinks it's easier for Oleksiejczuk to stay on the feet and land strikes than for Meerschaert to get the fight to the ground. He leans Oleksiejczuk but says he should not be a -225 favorite in such a tricky matchup.

Big Brady picks Michał Oleksiejczuk to win by first-round knockout. He notes Oleksiejczuk is a phenomenal striker with bodywork, volume, and power, while Meerschaert is at a massive striking disadvantage. However, he acknowledges the grappling danger: Meerschaert has 30 submission wins and Oleksiejczuk has been submitted six times. He thinks Oleksiejczuk can keep the fight standing and knock out Meerschaert, especially if he has improved his takedown defense. He mentions Oleksiejczuk's ability to get back up when taken down.

The host believes Oleksiejczuk's improvements from training with the fighting nerds will carry over, though it may result in a more measured approach. He expects Oleksiejczuk to wear Meerschaert down with striking and secure a finish in the third round.

Angelo notes Brad Tavares has fought everyone and has solid striking and 80% takedown defense, while Gerald Meerschaert is a good grappler but sucks on the feet and gets hit a lot. He warns that taking Meerschaert down is dangerous, but Tavares has the fight IQ to avoid that. Angelo picks Tavares but thinks the odds are high for a guy with only one win in three years, and suggests a 'win inside the distance' prop might be a sharp play.

Big Brady picks the underdog Gerald Meerschaert, citing Brad Tavares's decline after the Dricus du Plessis fight and poor recent performances. He believes Meerschaert has underrated striking and a huge grappling advantage, and expects him to submit Tavares in the second round.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Meerschaert. He emphasizes that Tavares is a neutralizer who no longer believes in his own power and doesn't follow up on damage. Connor notes that Meerschaert has become craftier on the feet and that Tavares's defensive shell will be his downfall. He calls the matchup terrible matchmaking but sees Meerschaert as the logical winner.

Tavares is clearly diminishing at 1-4 in his last five fights. Meerschaert can push a pace and get the grappling going in the first and second rounds, leading to a classic Meerschaert submission in round two or three.

The Guru picks Brad Tavares, emphasizing his takedown defense and ability to keep the fight standing. He thinks Meerschaert's body kicks and takedown attempts will be slow and predictable, and Tavares will be snappier on the feet. He expects a decision win for Tavares, though notes Meerschaert comes alive in the third round.

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder as the next evolution of Gerald Meerschaert: high-level BJJ with much better takedowns. He notes de Ridder uses his length well and can hang with anyone on the ground. He expects a high-level grappling fight and thinks the UFC matched him up this way on purpose. He will probably bet on de Ridder.

Big Brady goes back and forth but ultimately picks Meerschaert, citing de Ridder's poor cardio and striking. He expects de Ridder to come out strong but fade, allowing Meerschaert to take over in the later rounds. He predicts a third-round submission for Meerschaert.

Cody highlights de Ridder's elite grappling credentials, including a draw with Andre Galvao and a competitive loss to Tye Ruotolo. He believes de Ridder's judo and BJJ black belt will neutralize Meerschaert's submission game, and his striking is good enough to win on the feet. Cody expects de Ridder to pass this barometer test and win, possibly by knockout or decision.

Connor also picks Meerschaert, agreeing that de Ridder's striking is terrible and that Meerschaert can piece him up. He notes the size difference but thinks Meerschaert's boxing will prevail. He also comments that the odds are too wide in favor of de Ridder.

Daniel Vreeland picks Gerald Meerschaert as a dog, citing concerns about Reinier de Ridder's stamina and recent performances, including a knockout loss and a quit job. He notes Meerschaert's durability, awkward striking, and record for most submissions in UFC middleweight history. Vreeland expects a late finish if de Ridder doesn't get an early submission.

Lucrative James picks Reinier de Ridder to win, but is hesitant due to the wide odds. He notes that de Ridder is a one-dimensional grappler with poor striking, while Meerschaert is a submission specialist who could catch him. He believes de Ridder's wrestling and size advantage should allow him to dictate where the fight goes, but acknowledges that Meerschaert is dangerous off his back and could pull off a submission. He also mentions considering a bet on Meerschaert due to the value.

De Ridder's ability to take the back will be key. As his grappling wears on Meerschaert, he should open up a submission or ground-and-pound opportunity and get a finish in his UFC debut.

Paul is not excited about laying -278 on a UFC debutant, but acknowledges de Ridder's experience in big fights and his grappling advantage. He notes that Meerschaert struggles when opponents don't gas and have comparable grappling. Paul thinks de Ridder can win on points or by taking Meerschaert down and controlling him.

The Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his jiu-jitsu advantage and ability to avoid being fraud-checked in grappling. He worries about de Ridder's stand-up but believes his clinch knees and body work will be key. He predicts de Ridder finishes Meerschaert with knees to the body in the second or third round, surviving any guillotine danger.

Angelo picks Gerald Meerschaert as an underdog, acknowledging his chinny reputation but noting his improved takedowns in his last fight. He thinks Meerschaert's grappling is the best it's looked and that if he can take Shahbazyan down, he'll be in trouble. He mentions that Shahbazyan is a 3-to-1 favorite which seems crazy, and that Apex cards are ripe for upsets. He also suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Meerschaert.

Cody picks Meerschaert because he thinks Shahbazyan is a front-runner who fades if he doesn't finish early. He notes Meerschaert has good BJJ, cardio, and a comeback ability. He believes if Shahbazyan doesn't knock him out in the first round, Meerschaert will take over and submit him. He also mentions that Shahbazyan has been stopped by wrestlers and grapplers before.

Daniel Vreeland picks Gerald Meerschaert for the upset, noting Shahbazyan is a front-runner who fades after the first round. He believes if Shahbazyan doesn't get a first-round KO, Meerschaert will take over with submissions or ground-and-pound. He acknowledges the risk of Shahbazyan winning early.

JP picks Shahbazyan by KO, noting his losses were to elite competition and he has looked great lately. He thinks Meerschaert is old, slow, and his standup is not good. Brevin agrees, adding that Meerschaert is reckless and has been taking bad punishment recently, including a one-punch KO loss to Chimaev. Shahbazyan is bigger, younger, and has good wrestling to stuff takedowns.

Paul leans towards Shahbazyan by KO but doesn't like the price. He thinks Shahbazyan has the power to finish Meerschaert early, but notes that Meerschaert is durable and could survive. He prefers to bet live or take a prop on Shahbazyan by KO rather than the moneyline. He also mentions that Meerschaert's chin is suspect.

Angelo notes that Meerschaert is a very good grappler always live for a submission, though he has a questionable chin and poor takedown accuracy. Barberena is a fun brawler who doesn't use his wrestling and has been taken down 18 times in his last three fights. Angelo thinks the more likely outcome is Meerschaert gets a takedown and snatches a submission, but warns he cannot be trusted as a 2-to-1 favorite.

Big Brady picks Gerald Meerschaert to win by second-round submission. He notes Barberena's poor takedown defense and submission losses, and expects Meerschaert to get the fight to the mat and submit him. He is wary of Meerschaert's chin but thinks Barberena's recent form is too poor.

Cody picks Gerald Meerschaert, emphasizing the size advantage. He notes Barberena is undersized at middleweight, having ballooned to 240 lbs and struggled to make 170. He points out Barberena was taken down 13 times in his last fight and lacks the power to hurt Meerschaert. He sees Meerschaert's size and grappling as decisive.

Lucrative James picks Gerald Meerschaert to win by submission, likely in round two or three. He believes Barberena is on a downward trajectory and lacks the power to knock out Meerschaert. He notes that Barberena has a significant grappling disadvantage and that Meerschaert is opportunistic with submissions. He mentions that he won't play the moneyline but might bet on a round prop.

The host is surprised Meerschaert is a big favorite, as he believes Barberena has good enough defensive grappling to deal with Meerschaert's less-than-average wrestling. He notes Barberena has shown improvements in getting back to his feet and letting his hands go, and expects Barberena to have the striking advantage, leading to a knockout in the third round as Meerschaert fails on his grappling attempts.

Paul also picks Meerschaert but with hesitation. He acknowledges Barberena's toughness and grit, but notes Meerschaert's inconsistency and tendency to lose rounds before pulling off a finish. He warns that this could be a 'pie in the sky' situation where Meerschaert's flaws are overlooked. Still, he expects Meerschaert to win due to size.

Angelo picks Andre Petroski, trusting his wrestling and power, but leaves him out of the safety parlay due to Gerald Meerschaert's submission threat. He notes that Meerschaert has poor takedown defense and a suspect chin, but could pull off a Hail Mary submission. He has Petroski in a parlay with Natália Silva at -133.

Big Brady picks Gerald Meerschaert as a big underdog to win by third-round submission, acknowledging Petroski could knock him out early. He notes Meerschaert has 27 submission wins and is dangerous when opponents tire. Brady worries about Petroski's cardio, as he slows in the second and third rounds, and believes Meerschaert can capitalize on mistakes.

Cody thinks Petroski's wrestling and physical strength will overwhelm Meerschaert, who has a poor chin and is coming off a knockout loss. He expects a finish, but notes Petroski's gas tank could be an issue if the fight goes long.

Daniel Levi picks Andre Petroski, noting that he has been improving and showed better pacing in his last fight. He acknowledges that Meerschaert is live to catch Petroski with a submission, especially since Petroski has been guillotined before. Levi is not comfortable laying the price and prefers props, playing Petroski KO in round 1 and Meerschaert submission in rounds 2-3.

Lucrative James leans towards Gerald Meerschaert as an underdog, noting that Andre Petroski tends to gas out in the second round before recovering in the third, leaving openings for submissions. He acknowledges the risk of Petroski finishing early but sees value in Meerschaert's patented round 2-3 submission. He suggests a live bet after round one.

Petroski is the stronger wrestler with power and cardio improvements. He should take Meerschaert down and control him, likely finishing in the first two rounds. Meerschaert has durability issues and struggles when pressured early. The moneyline is a bit wide, but the fight not going to decision is a solid play.

Angelo picks Joe Pyfer but is hesitant to bet because Pyfer is green and Gerald Meerschaert has defied odds before. He notes that Pyfer has good wrestling and enough Jiu-Jitsu to avoid submissions, and is the better striker. However, he is cautious because Meerschaert's chin has held up recently, and he doesn't want to risk a similar outcome to the Bruno Silva fight.

Big Brady picks Joe Pyfer to win by knockout, citing Pyfer's power and patience, and Meerschaert's questionable chin and striking defense. He notes that Meerschaert has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He predicts a second-round KO, but acknowledges Meerschaert's history of pulling off upsets as a dog.

Cody also picks Pyfer. He thinks Pyfer will be too much early, with better striking and wrestling. He notes Meerschaert often comes back after losing the first round, but Pyfer's cardio should prevent that. Cody suggests live betting Meerschaert after round 1 if Pyfer doesn't finish, as Meerschaert's value increases. He acknowledges Meerschaert's submission threat but believes Pyfer can avoid it.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Meerschaert. He emphasizes that Meerschaert has beaten better competition and that Pyfer's wins are not as impressive. Connor also notes that Meerschaert's experience and ability to handle adversity give him the edge.

Jacob is confident in Joe Pyfer, noting that he went into the breakdown looking for reasons to pick Meerschaert but came out with Pyfer as one of his more confident picks. He highlights that Pyfer throws straight, fast shots down the middle, which is exactly how Khamzat Chimaev knocked out Meerschaert. He believes Pyfer can knock him out, but warns that Pyfer can get over-aggressive and headhunt, which could allow Meerschaert to time a takedown.

Meerschaert is a veteran submission specialist with 9 UFC submissions, often winning as an underdog. He uses body kicks to set up takedowns and has crushing top pressure. Pyfer has hype but was submitted by a striker early in his career and hasn't faced a grappler of Meerschaert's level. I expect Pyfer to come out fast, but Meerschaert will weather the storm and find a submission in round 2 or 3.

Paul picks Pyfer, citing his youth, athleticism, and power. He notes Pyfer has a wrestling background and should be able to take Meerschaert down and avoid submissions. Paul believes Pyfer's power could knock Meerschaert out early, as Meerschaert has been knocked out before. He acknowledges Meerschaert's experience and submission threat but thinks Pyfer's cardio and strength will carry him.

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer to win by 30-27 decision. He expects Pyfer to have a power advantage on the feet, causing Meerschaert to shoot predictable takedowns that Pyfer will stuff. He sees Pyfer landing better shots, sprawling on takedowns, and taking back position to control rounds. He does not predict a first-round KO despite Pyfer's danger, instead expecting a dominant decision.

Angelo is extremely confident in Bruno Silva, citing his striking, BJJ, and toughness. He notes Meerschaert's only path is to get beaten up and pull off a submission, but Silva has solid BJJ to defend. Angelo has a 2-unit moneyline bet and will use Silva in knockout kings.

Big Brady picks Bruno Silva to win by first-round knockout. He calls Silva a black belt in ground and pound with tremendous power. Meerschaert is slow, hittable, and unlikely to get the fight to the mat. Silva's submission defense has improved, and Brady sees this as a terrible matchup for Meerschaert. He expects Silva to put him out cold in the first round.

Cody picks Bruno Silva by KO, calling him a murderous power puncher. He notes Meerschaert's chin has been compromised and that Silva carries power through all three rounds. Cody doubts Meerschaert can take Silva down early, as he was out-wrestled by Dustin Stoltzfus.

Daniel Levi picks Bruno Silva, citing Silva's devastating power, durability, and improved takedown defense. He notes that Silva went three hard rounds with Alex Pereira and has knockout wins over Alexander Shlemenko and Artem Frolov. Levi believes Silva's power and pressure will be too much for Meerschaert, and he predicts a first-round knockout. He acknowledges Meerschaert's submission threat but thinks Silva will avoid it.

The host picks Bruno Silva, expecting an early finish. He mentions that Meerschaert could be dangerous if it goes to the ground, but he would rather take violence in that spot. He includes Silva in his totals parlay under 1.5 rounds.

Paul picks Bruno Silva by knockout, noting Silva's power and ability to keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Meerschaert's submission threat but thinks Silva's wrestling defense is adequate. Paul warns that Meerschaert is the king of snatching submissions after getting beaten up.

Angelo picks Jotko, emphasizing his speed, athleticism, and high-volume striking. He notes Jotko's 83% takedown defense and believes he is smart enough not to grapple with Meerschaert, unlike previous opponents who made that mistake. He expects Jotko to stick and move, lighting up Meerschaert on the feet.

Big Brady picks Jotko despite being a self-proclaimed hater, citing Jotko's elite takedown defense and fight IQ. He expects Jotko to keep the fight standing, outpoint Meerschaert, and win a boring decision. He acknowledges Meerschaert's danger but thinks Jotko's style is a bad matchup.

Cody picks Jotko, believing his style stifles Meerschaert. He notes Jotko's solid takedown defense and cardio, and that Meerschaert's wins often come against opponents who gas. Cody thinks Jotko can even take Meerschaert down and control him, as Meerschaert's takedown defense is poor. He references Jotko's training at American Top Team and his experience against grapplers like Misha Cirkunov.

Daniel Levi leans toward Gerald Meerschaert as the underdog. He notes Meerschaert's opportunistic submission game and deceptive striking, while describing Jotko as a European point fighter who avoids risks. Levi questions if Jotko will give Meerschaert a finishing opportunity and mentions that Jotko was reportedly injured in his last loss. He sides with the dog in a fight he sees as close.

The host picks Jotko, citing his superior striking, movement, and takedown defense. He notes Meerschaert relies on opponents' mistakes and cardio issues, but Jotko is disciplined and won't gas. Jotko's lateral movement and jab will keep him safe, and he has good BJJ to avoid submissions. He expects Jotko to win a decision, as he is not a finisher.

Paul leans towards Jotko but is hesitant to bet at -165. He thinks Jotko should win by staying on the feet and avoiding grappling, but notes Jotko's low volume leads to close decisions. Paul acknowledges Meerschaert's submission danger but believes Jotko's takedown defense and cardio will be enough. He doesn't plan to bet it himself.

Angelo picks Gerald Meerschaert because he is dangerous on the ground and has proven he can survive being stunned. He notes that Meerschaert's chin looked better in his last fight, but Stoltzfus has legitimate power. Angelo thinks Meerschaert will avoid the KO, get the fight to the ground, and win by submission. However, he acknowledges a Stoltzfus KO is very live.

Big Brady picks Gerald Meerschaert, citing his superior experience, striking improvements, and dangerous ground game (94% finish rate, 76% submission rate). He is not sold on Stoltzfus, who was out-struck by Kyle Daukaus and slowed down against Rodolfo Vieira. He expects Meerschaert to get a late submission.

Cody is confident in Meerschaert, noting his experience, BJJ, and better striking and wrestling than Stoltzfus. He points out that Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and has been submitted by lower-level opponents. Cody thinks Meerschaert can win wherever the fight goes, though he warns about Meerschaert's chin. He considers -235 a fair price.

Daniel Levi leans toward Gerald Meerschaert but is not comfortable laying -230. He respects Meerschaert's submission record and veteran savvy, but notes that Meerschaert typically wins as an underdog. Levi thinks Stoltzfus is no slouch and has faced tough competition, but believes Meerschaert's experience and ground game will be the difference. He expects a competitive fight where Meerschaert eventually finds a submission or wins a decision, but advises passing the bet or taking the dog.

Jacob picks Dustin Stoltzfus, believing he will dominate the fight. He thinks Meerschaert's takedowns are sloppy and that Stoltzfus will defend them and win the striking exchanges. Jacob notes that Stoltzfus outstruck Rodolfo Vieira 2-1 before being submitted, and that Meerschaert's chin is questionable. He expects Stoltzfus to knock Meerschaert out.

The host leans towards Meerschaert inside the distance at even money. He notes that Meerschaert is hittable but has great submissions, and Stoltzfus is not UFC quality. However, he is not passionate due to Meerschaert's inconsistency.

Paul agrees with Meerschaert, noting his submission record and cardio. He thinks Stoltzfus hasn't shown anything in the UFC to get excited about. Paul doesn't love laying -235 but sees Meerschaert as the clear better fighter.

Angelo picks Muradov, citing his clean boxing, takedown defense, and ability to survive on the ground. He notes Meerschaert lacks offensive wrestling and relies on others to take him down. He spent the 9300 on Muradov in DraftKings and thinks he's worth it.

Cody picks Muradov, citing his speed advantage and technical boxing. He notes that Muradov has shown finishing ability in later rounds, which is good if Meerschaert survives early. Cody thinks Meerschaert is chinny and will get knocked out. He prefers Muradov inside the distance and likes the over 1.5 rounds as a bet.

Jacob picks Muradov, calling Meerschaert a poor man's Michael Chiesa without the wrestling. He believes Muradov will run through Meerschaert and get a TKO/KO. He has Muradov in his lineup and thinks 9300 is good value.

Lock picks Muradov to win inside the distance, believing his speed and striking will be too much for Meerschaert. He notes Muradov is a big favorite and expects a finish, though he's unsure of the round. Lock likes round props for Muradov (round 2 +450, round 3 +900) rather than method of victory due to juiced lines. He acknowledges Meerschaert's size and clinch potential but thinks Muradov's speed is the difference.

Paul picks Muradov, agreeing that Meerschaert is chinny and that Muradov's boxing will find the chin. He notes that Muradov has finished fights in the third round, showing cardio and power. Paul thinks Meerschaert's only path is submission, but he doesn't see it happening. He says Muradov by knockout is -175 and inside the distance is -200.

Big Brady picks Gerald Meerschaert to win by submission. He notes that Fabiński is a wrestler who will likely get takedowns but leaves himself in bad positions, and Meerschaert is a submission machine with 22-23 submissions. He believes Meerschaert's striking is better and that Fabiński's four losses include three by submission. He expects Meerschaert to find a submission off his back or after a sweep. He suggests betting the submission prop as the most likely outcome.

Cody is a Fabiński fan and thinks his wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Meerschaert's submissions often come against tired opponents, and Fabiński has good takedown defense and can avoid submissions. He expects Fabiński to take Meerschaert down and control him for a decision. He admits it's an emotional bet.

Daniel Levi picks Gerald Meerschaert, acknowledging that Bartosz Fabiński will likely control the fight with takedowns but will leave his neck open for submissions. Levi notes that Meerschaert is a serious black belt with many submissions, but his recent performances have been poor and he may be past his prime. He expects Meerschaert to catch Fabiński in a guillotine or similar submission, but admits it could go either way.

Manpreet leans toward Meerschaert by submission, noting that Fabiński has been submitted in two of his last three fights by grapplers. He believes Meerschaert's BJJ black belt and experience give him a chance to catch Fabiński in a submission, especially as Fabiński's takedown-heavy style leaves him vulnerable. He recommends a half-unit sprinkle on the submission prop.

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev, believing he is the better striker and can take Meerschaert down. He notes Meerschaert has poor takedown defense and has been knocked out and submitted multiple times. He predicts a first-round finish via ground and pound, though he acknowledges Meerschaert's experience and BJJ black belt as a concern.

The host is very confident in Khamzat Chimaev's wrestling and aggression, expecting him to take Gerald Meerschaert down and finish with ground-and-pound. He notes Meerschaert's poor takedown defense and tendency to pull guard, while Chimaev has shown no weaknesses. He recommends betting the under 1.5 rounds at -120 as the safest play, predicting a first-round TKO.

Big Brady leans toward Ian Heinisch, believing the matchup favors him stylistically. He thinks Heinisch can close the distance, land takedowns, and avoid Meerschaert's BJJ. He notes Meerschaert's reach advantage and improved striking but feels Heinisch's wrestling and pressure will earn a close decision. He acknowledges Meerschaert is underrated.

Daniel finds it hard to cap Meerschaert because he often wins despite looking slow and unathletic. He sees this as a 50/50 fight and leans toward Meerschaert as the dog, citing his veteran savvy, jiu-jitsu black belt, and ability to capitalize on mistakes. He acknowledges Heinisch's cardio and will but thinks Meerschaert can snatch a submission or win a decision.

Ian Heinisch has great cardio and submission defense, which should help him avoid Gerald Meerschaert's submissions. Heinisch has the speed advantage and should be able to get in and out. However, his output has been a concern in past fights. If he lets his hands go, he can outpace Meerschaert. The pick is Heinisch, but not confident enough to bet.

Daniel picks Deron Winn to win a decision, citing his power, takedowns, and boxing. He notes that Winn needs to be careful of Meerschaert's submissions and body kicks, especially in later rounds. He believes Winn will come out hard, win the first round, and edge out a 29-28 decision if he doesn't get caught.

Meerschaert has a massive size and reach advantage (77.5 vs 71 inches). Winn's wrestling is his only path, but Meerschaert has submissions from all positions. If Winn doesn't get a first-round KO, Meerschaert will submit him, likely in the third round. The host likes the plus money and plans a 1-unit bet.