UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates

Angelo picks Carlos Prates because he believes Prates is the better striker, which is key against a primarily striking opponent like Ian Garry. He notes that Garry may try to wrestle, but Prates has better takedown defense than MVP and won't be helpless on the ground. He acknowledges the risk but is confident in Prates' power and range control.

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates, citing the Fighting Nerds' undefeated record and Prates' power and accuracy. He criticizes Ian Garry's striking defense, noting he backs up with his chin up. He expects Prates to land a big shot and knock out Garry, predicting a second-round knockout.

Connor picks Garry because he believes Garry can exploit Prates' weaknesses: Prates has a wide stance, struggles moving backwards, and defaults to clinching when pressured. Garry can use his reach to pressure, wrestle with authority, and neutralize Prates' game. Connor thinks Garry's ability to make fights ugly and suffocating will lead to a grinding win, even if uninspired.

The host leans Garry slightly, citing his better discipline and technical game. He notes Prates is dangerous and has finished all UFC fights, but Garry is the most technically sound opponent he's faced. Garry's five-round experience and ability to mix striking with grappling should lead to a decision win.

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Prates to win by TKO in round two. He believes Prates has better finishing potential and composure, while Garry is nervous early and has a tendency to throw low kicks in elbow distance, leaving him open. He notes Garry's short reach for his height and that Prates has good balance and takedown defense. He expects Prates to hurt Garry in round one and finish him in round two.

Zane picks Prates despite acknowledging Garry's advantages, because he expects Garry to be passive and fight on the back foot, which gives Prates room to work. Zane notes Prates has a great eye for defensive openings and can pick up on Garry's timing issues. He also mentions Prates' finishing ability and the fact that Garry has been less aggressive recently, but admits Prates has never fought five rounds and could gas.

Angelo picks Zhang Mingyang, believing his power and grappling will be too much for an aging Anthony Smith. He notes that Mingyang is a grappler at core with great takedowns, and that Smith's grappling is not a threat. He is slightly nervous because Mingyang is untested, but he has him in a parlay.

Big Brady picks Zhang Mingyang, citing Anthony Smith's decline and poor reaction to punches. He expects Zhang's power to land a big shot and finish Smith early. He notes Smith has been counted out before but still favors Zhang by first-round knockout.

Connor picks Zhang because he believes Anthony Smith is a head case who has been declining and reverting to his old, losing ways. Smith's recent fights show him getting discouraged easily and running out of ideas. Zhang is a durable brawler who can soak up damage and extend exchanges, and Smith's current mental state makes him vulnerable to Zhang's pressure and power.

The host leans Mingyang with low confidence, noting that if Mingyang doesn't get a first-round KO, Smith could take over late or get a submission. He expects Mingyang to find a shot, put Smith on wobbly legs, and finish with ground and pound in the first round.

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Mingyang to win by TKO in the first round. He is very high on Mingyang, calling him a real deal prospect with knockout power and sharp technique. He criticizes Anthony Smith's predictable style, emotional state (crying on walkout), and lack of a serious mindset. He believes Mingyang will overwhelm Smith early.

Zane picks Zhang, noting that even the worst version of Anthony Smith has the tools to beat Zhang, but Smith's emotional struggles and tendency to shut down make him unreliable. Zhang is fearless, powerful, and will fight without hesitation, which is a bad matchup for the current version of Smith. Zane also mentions that Smith's recent performances show him getting discouraged and losing focus.

Angelo picks David Onama, citing his activity and pressure against a inactive Giga Chikadze. He notes that Giga is one-dimensional and has been out for two years, while Onama is a kickboxer who should stay busy and win. The odds have moved from -150 to -183 in Onama's favor.

Big Brady leans toward David Onama, assuming he will grapple. He notes Giga Chikadze's takedown defense is poor and he has been controlled on the ground before. If Onama strikes, he favors Chikadze. He predicts Onama will get takedowns, wear on Chikadze, and find a submission in the second round.

Connor picks Chikadze because he has a significant spatial advantage over Onama, who struggles at range and needs to brawl to be effective. Chikadze's movement and ability to keep distance will make it hard for Onama to force the kind of fight he needs. Connor also notes that Chikadze is a dangerous striker who can hurt Onama, as seen in Onama's previous fights where he got hurt but survived.

The host expects Onama to meet Chikadze's jab with bigger power, mix in grappling, and land more damage over 15 minutes to win on the scorecards.

The MMA Guru picks Giga Chikadze as an underdog. He believes Chikadze is a better striker and underrated, citing his close fight with Arnold Allen. He criticizes Onama's low fight IQ, poor training habits, and vulnerability to pressure. He expects Chikadze to win by TKO, as Onama has been dropped by lesser opponents.

Zane picks Chikadze, agreeing with Connor that Chikadze's spatial advantage and ability to keep Onama at range will be key. Onama's only path to victory is to brawl, but Chikadze won't let him get close. Zane also notes that Onama has been hurt in almost every fight and Chikadze is a very dangerous striker who can finish him early. However, if Onama survives the early onslaught, he could win round three.

Angelo picks Michel Pereira, believing his athleticism and power will overwhelm Abusupiyan Magomedov. He notes that Abus is hittable and Pereira hits hard, and that Pereira should replicate Bruno Ferreira's success but without letting up. He is more confident now than in his initial breakdown, though he cautions about Pereira's cardio.

Big Brady picks Michel Pereira, dismissing his loss to Anthony Hernandez as irrelevant since Hernandez would do the same to Magomedov. He criticizes Magomedov's poor cardio and durability, noting he slows down after the first round. He expects Pereira to win by knockout, possibly in the second round.

Connor picks Pereira because he is a much more evolved and athletic fighter compared to Magomedov, who has a limited game based on a one-two and top control. Pereira has shown growth and patience, and his speed and power will be too much for Magomedov's robotic striking. Connor notes that Magomedov's wins have aged poorly and he has been exposed by any decent fighter.

The host likes Pereira's explosivity, athleticism, and power to shut down Magomedov's grappling, and expects Pereira to force a break and get a second or third round TKO.

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov as an underdog. He criticizes Pereira's cardio and lack of MMA training, saying he gasses if he doesn't finish early. He notes Magomedov's improvements in grappling and cardio, and his reach advantage. He expects Magomedov to weather Pereira's early storm and win a decision, possibly chopping up Pereira's leg.

Zane picks Pereira, emphasizing that Magomedov's game is one-dimensional and relies on size and pressure. Once a fighter is good enough to test him, Magomedov falls apart. Pereira has the speed and skill to counter Magomedov's takedowns and striking. Zane also notes that Magomedov's losses have aged well but his wins have not, and he is essentially a 'quadruple A' fighter.

Angelo picks Randy Brown, citing his youth, speed, technical striking, and high fight IQ. He notes that Nicolas Dalby relies on cardio and weird breathing, but Brown should piece him up and avoid danger. The only concern is a rogue judge who might appreciate Dalby's pressure, but Brown is the cleaner fighter.

Big Brady picks Randy Brown, citing his youth, reach advantage, and the big cage favoring his range striking. He expects Brown to pick Dalby apart over three rounds and win a decision. He notes Brown often makes fights closer than expected, but still favors him.

Connor picks Dalby because of his relentless pressure and drive to win rounds, contrasting with Randy Brown's inconsistency and tendency to lose focus. Dalby's multi-layered pressure, durability, and strength will make the fight miserable for Brown, who often gets cornered and loses. Connor notes that Brown has all the tools but lacks the discipline to use them consistently.

The host believes Dalby's reliance on his hardware will deteriorate at age 40, allowing Brown to showcase flaws and batter Dalby from distance for a decision win.

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown, citing his improved savvy in three-round fights and ability to handle Dalby's pressure. He notes Brown's reach advantage and that Dalby's head kick won't work on a taller opponent. He expects Brown to win by decision or late TKO, as Dalby is older and has more wear and tear.

Zane picks Dalby, agreeing that Dalby's relentless pressure and ability to make fights ugly will overwhelm Brown, who is prone to making poor decisions and getting cornered. Zane points out that Brown's loss to Brian Battle is a blueprint for how Dalby can win. Dalby may not have the tools to dominate, but his drive and consistency will earn him rounds.

Angelo is very confident in Ikram Aliskerov, expecting him to dominate with wrestling and pressure. He notes that Aliskerov's loss to Robert Whittaker was a quality loss and that he has strong takedowns and top control. André Muniz is a BJJ specialist who gets beaten up when facing wrestlers who aren't afraid of his jiu-jitsu.

Big Brady is confident in Ikram Aliskerov, questioning André Muniz's heart, cardio, and durability. He notes Muniz has been finished in all six losses, five by KO. He expects Aliskerov's power to end the fight early, predicting a first-round knockout.

Connor picks Aliskerov because he believes Aliskerov's striking power and finishing ability will catch Muniz, who has terrible striking defense. Muniz's wild overhands and crashing style leave him open to clean shots. Connor notes that Aliskerov has shown he can knock out opponents with one good strike, as seen against Phil Hawes and Warlley Alves. However, if Muniz makes it a grappling battle, Aliskerov could gas.

The host believes Aliskerov's wrestling will shut down Muniz's jiu-jitsu, keeping the fight standing where Aliskerov will find a big shot as Muniz slows down in the second or third round.

The MMA Guru picks Ikram Aliskerov to win by TKO in round two. He considers Aliskerov a much better fighter, slicker and more dynamic than Muniz. He notes Muniz's takedowns are obvious and slow, and expects Aliskerov to shut down grappling early and land clean shots. He references Aliskerov's short-notice loss to Whittaker as not indicative of his level.

Zane picks Muniz as the more proven quantity, noting that Aliskerov is still an unknown with a prospect game at age 32. Muniz's aggressive grappling and submission skills could overwhelm Aliskerov if the fight goes to the ground. Zane also mentions that Aliskerov's gas tank is questionable and he has been submitted before (Kimura losses). However, Muniz's striking is terrible and he could get knocked out.

Angelo picks Matt Schnell, calling him the better fighter despite his compromised chin. He notes that Schnell is a solid striker with good BJJ, while Jimmy Flick is a one-dimensional grappler with terrible striking stats (5.43 significant strikes absorbed per minute). He compares the choice to cat poop vs. dog poop, but concludes Schnell is the real fighter.

Big Brady picks Jimmy Flick, citing Matt Schnell's poor chin, takedown defense, and submission defense. He notes Schnell has been submitted three times and has no knockout power. He expects Flick to get a takedown and submit Schnell, predicting a first-round submission. He is shocked Schnell is a -300 favorite.

The host got Flick at plus 200 and believes his unorthodox grappling and jiu-jitsu will allow him to catch Schnell in a submission, despite Flick's absent striking game.

The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Flick as an underdog, despite acknowledging Schnell is technically better. He cannot trust Schnell's chin, as he gets knocked out too often at flyweight. He thinks Flick can make it a dirty fight and has submission ability. He admits his pick is based on a weird feeling and Schnell's chinny reputation.

Big Brady picks Evan Elder, emphasizing his full camp, experience against better competition, and striking advantage. He notes Gauge Young is taking the fight on short notice and making his UFC debut, which favors Elder. He predicts a competitive decision win for Elder, though he feels the line is a bit wide.

The host notes Young is slicker with hands but believes Elder's power and physicality will keep Young muzzled, leading to a decision win for Elder.

The MMA Guru picks Evan Elder to win by TKO in the second or third round. He notes Elder's toughness, ability to come back from being hurt, and pressure fighting. He believes Gauge Young stepping in on short notice is a disadvantage, and Elder's grinding style will be too much. He references Elder's performance against Nazim Sadykhov.

Angelo picks John Castañeda, believing his pressure wrestling will neutralize Chris Gutierrez's leg kicks. He notes that Gutierrez was taken down by Quang Le and that Castañeda's Division 2 wrestling and forward pressure will keep the fight in close range, preventing Gutierrez from planting and kicking. He is waiting for better plus money odds.

Big Brady leans toward Chris Gutierrez, citing his leg kicks and better striking, but expects a close fight typical of Gutierrez. He notes Gutierrez often wins on thin margins and predicts a competitive decision. He expresses low interest in the fight and mentions the line at -140 makes sense.

The host expects Gutierrez to stop takedowns, use calf kicks to slow Castañeda, and then land hands when Castañeda blitzes recklessly, leading to a decision win.

The MMA Guru picks Chris Gutierrez, but with hesitation. He likes Gutierrez's low kicks and movement, and notes Castañeda's lack of urgency and flat-footedness. However, he questions Gutierrez's ability to dominate and expects a very close decision. He mentions the big cage favors Gutierrez's movement.

Angelo picks Da'Mon Blackshear, citing his athleticism, speed, power, and ability to mix striking and grappling. He notes that Alateng Heili struggles to combine his skills, and that Blackshear's technical boxing and clean takedowns should prevail. He has Blackshear in a parlay with Joselyne Edwards.

Big Brady is confident in Da'Mon Blackshear, highlighting his superior grappling and Alateng Heili's low volume and lack of wrestling. He expects Blackshear to get the fight to the ground and submit Heili, noting a massive skill gap on the mat. He predicts a second-round submission.

The host acknowledges Heili's wrestling could cause issues but believes Blackshear's striking power and BJJ black belt will keep him safe and allow him to grind out a decision win.

The MMA Guru picks Da'Mon Blackshear to win by finish in the first two rounds. He cites Blackshear's reach advantage (5.5 inches), activity, and ability to dictate range. He notes Heili is not a pressure fighter and fights once a year, which hurts his development. He expects Blackshear to hurt Heili and finish via TKO or submission.

Angelo picks Malcolm Wellmaker but with low confidence, noting that Wellmaker is an untested UFC debutant with power and accuracy, while Cameron Saaiman has volume and experience. He mentions that if the fight were in Las Vegas, he'd be more confident in Wellmaker due to judging preferences for finishing ability.

Big Brady leans toward Malcolm Wellmaker, impressed by his composure and power despite limited pro experience. He notes Cameron Saaiman's hittability (51% striking defense) and questions the quality of his wins. He predicts Wellmaker will land a clean shot and win by second-round knockout, though he acknowledges Saaiman's losses are to good competition.

The host leans Wellmaker as the superior striker, noting he is hittable but has good durability and defensive grappling, and expects him to snipe Saaiman from distance and win by knockout.

The MMA Guru picks Malcolm Wellmaker, but his reasoning is heavily influenced by a personal grievance: Cameron Saaiman missed a scheduled interview, leading the Guru to speculate that disaster has struck Saaiman's camp. He acknowledges Saaiman is more well-rounded but likes Wellmaker's counter punching and finishing potential. He calls the fight a 50/50.

Angelo is very confident in Jaqueline Amorim, calling her a high-level grappler with power in her hands. He contrasts her serious approach with Polyana Viana's lack of career dedication, comparing it to Danni Barbosa vs. Belb. He notes the odds are moving quickly and expects Amorim to be a huge favorite by fight night.

Big Brady is very confident in Jaqueline Amorim, citing her high-level BJJ and Polyana Viana's poor takedown defense (38%). He expects Amorim to take Viana down and submit her quickly, noting Viana's vulnerability on the ground as seen in past fights. He predicts a first-round submission.

The host believes Amorim is significantly better than Viana, expecting her to get the fight to the ground easily and eventually sink in a submission.

The MMA Guru picks Jaqueline Amorim, believing she takes her career more seriously than Viana. He notes Amorim's submission skills and cheating incident against Demopoulos, but still favors her. He expects a finish, as Viana is not fully committed to fighting. He criticizes Viana's dedication and says Amorim trains harder.

Angelo picks Roberto Romero, citing his forward pressure, grappling, and toughness. He notes that Romero dropped David Onama early in his last fight and has a gritty demeanor. He is waiting for better odds before placing a bet, as Romero is a slight favorite.

Big Brady leans toward Roberto Romero, emphasizing his doggedness and urgency compared to Timmy Cuamba's lack of finishing instinct. He notes Romero's impressive short-notice debut against David Onama, where he had early success but faded. He criticizes Cuamba for sparring-like performances and lack of urgency, predicting a close decision win for Romero.

The host picks Cuamba based on his speed and athleticism advantage, expecting him to land better shots from distance and use wrestling at opportune moments to secure a decision win.

The MMA Guru picks Roberto Romero, impressed by his debut against David Onama where he hurt Onama early and showed pressure. He notes Cuamba has lost both UFC fights and didn't look good. He expects a gritty decision win for Romero, likely 29-28, as Romero leads the dance and is hard to finish.

Angelo picks Joselyne Edwards because she is the better fighter overall, with superior kickboxing, range management, and improving takedown defense. He notes that Chelsea Chandler is enormous and strong but slow and lumbering, and he doubts she can simply overpower Joselyn. He mentions that Joselyn was -190, then -210, now -220, and he has her in a parlay.

Big Brady is confident in Joselyne Edwards, citing her striking advantage and Chelsea Chandler's tendency to be a punching bag. He notes Edwards' takedown defense has improved, though she has been taken down in the past. He expects Edwards to stuff takedowns and win a decision, as Chandler is not a threat on the feet.

The host acknowledges Chandler's physicality but believes Edwards' technical advantages will allow her to land combinations and head kicks from distance, leading to a decision win.

The MMA Guru picks Joselyne Edwards, citing her technical striking, reach advantage, and experience with 20 pro fights compared to Chandler's 9. He notes Edwards' counter-wrestling and range management, and expects her to outstrike Chandler to a 29-28 decision. He mentions that judges are increasingly scoring damage over grappling, which favors Edwards.