Ian Machado Garry

Angelo picks Ian Garry over Belal Muhammad. He argues that if Garry can defend takedowns, he wins easily due to superior striking, length, speed, and power. Muhammad's only path is wrestling, but he has no Plan B. Garry showed adjustments in his loss to Shavkat, while Muhammad is one-dimensional. Angelo acknowledges the fight is competitive but favors Garry.

Big Brady picks Ian Machado Garry by decision, criticizing Belal Muhammad's fight IQ and game plan. He believes Muhammad will try to strike instead of wrestle, leading to a clear decision loss. He notes Muhammad's tools but doubts his execution.

Cody picks Ian Garry confidently, noting that Belal Muhammad's wins are aging poorly and that Garry is younger, bigger, and has better takedown defense. He believes Garry can outpoint Muhammad and stuff takedowns, similar to how Michael Morales beat Brady. Cody warns against falling into the trap of hating on Belal, but ultimately sees Garry's advantages.

Connor picks Garry, citing his size, reach, and athleticism as key advantages over Muhammad. He notes that Muhammad's wins have come against smaller opponents and that Garry's improved striking and clinch work from the Prochazka fight give him confidence. Connor acknowledges Muhammad's tactical skill but doubts his physicality at the elite level.

Lucrative James picks Ian Garry, citing his superior striking, youth (27 vs 37), and recent grappling improvements shown against Shavkat Rakhmonov. He believes Belal's only path is wrestling, but Garry's takedown defense and scrambling have improved. He notes the 10-year age gap and Garry's momentum. He predicts a decision win for Garry.

Garry is a slick striker with high fight IQ and takedown defense. Muhammad relies on grappling pressure but may struggle to get takedowns. Garry should out-strike him and win a decision, possibly with a late finish.

Paul picks Ian Garry, having added him to parlays early. He believes Garry's length, footwork, and takedown defense will be too much for Belal, who is at the end of his career. Paul notes that Belal's wins are aging poorly and that Garry's striking and ring IQ are superior.

The MMA Guru picks Ian Garry over Belal Muhammad, believing Garry's striking and takedown defense will be too much. He notes Garry's performances against Shavkat and MVP. He predicts a third-round TKO, with Garry calling out Makhachev afterward.

Angelo picks Carlos Prates because he believes Prates is the better striker, which is key against a primarily striking opponent like Ian Garry. He notes that Garry may try to wrestle, but Prates has better takedown defense than MVP and won't be helpless on the ground. He acknowledges the risk but is confident in Prates' power and range control.

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates, citing the Fighting Nerds' undefeated record and Prates' power and accuracy. He criticizes Ian Garry's striking defense, noting he backs up with his chin up. He expects Prates to land a big shot and knock out Garry, predicting a second-round knockout.

Connor picks Garry because he believes Garry can exploit Prates' weaknesses: Prates has a wide stance, struggles moving backwards, and defaults to clinching when pressured. Garry can use his reach to pressure, wrestle with authority, and neutralize Prates' game. Connor thinks Garry's ability to make fights ugly and suffocating will lead to a grinding win, even if uninspired.

The host leans Garry slightly, citing his better discipline and technical game. He notes Prates is dangerous and has finished all UFC fights, but Garry is the most technically sound opponent he's faced. Garry's five-round experience and ability to mix striking with grappling should lead to a decision win.

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Prates to win by TKO in round two. He believes Prates has better finishing potential and composure, while Garry is nervous early and has a tendency to throw low kicks in elbow distance, leaving him open. He notes Garry's short reach for his height and that Prates has good balance and takedown defense. He expects Prates to hurt Garry in round one and finish him in round two.

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov but is nervous. He notes Shavkat has more ways to win (KO, submission) and is dangerous everywhere, but his takedowns are not great (1 for 5 against Wonderboy) and he hasn't fought meaningful time. Ian Garry accepted this fight on short notice, which suggests he knows something. Angelo is leaning Shavkat but may just watch and enjoy.

Cody picks Rakhmonov, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and wins over tough opponents. He notes Rakhmonov's takedown accuracy is low but he finds the neck when needed. He has concerns about Rakhmonov's striking lulls and Garry's potential in a kickboxing match, but still favors Rakhmonov.

Connor believes Shavkat's clinch game and pressure will be decisive. He notes that Shavkat has terrible striking defense but is durable and confident, and that his ability to get into the clinch and break opponents down is reminiscent of Khabib. Connor thinks Garry will have success at range early but will eventually give ground and get caught in clinches, leading to a finish. He also mentions the training partner dynamic, where Shavkat got the better of Garry on the ground.

Daniel believes Rakhmonov's clinch work and physicality will be too much for Garry. He notes Garry's vulnerability after being dropped by Keenan Song and questions his vegan diet's effect on muscle mass. He expects Rakhmonov to close distance methodically and hand Garry his first loss.

Daniel Vreeland picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, citing that the Michael Venom Page fight showed the ceiling of Ian Garry's striking. He argues that Garry's grappling ace won't work against Rakhmonov, who has superior wrestling and submission skills. Vreeland notes Rakhmonov's striking is good enough to hang with Garry, and his finishing upside is all on his side, especially in a five-round fight where it gets worse for Garry.

Jeff Fox agrees with Rakhmonov, noting that the MVP fight was not encouraging for Garry and that this is a massive step up. He questions Garry's path to victory, suggesting a decision is possible but would mean 15 minutes of danger. Fox points out that the finishing upside is all on Rakhmonov, especially in a five-round fight, making it even worse for Garry.

Lucrative James picks Ian Garry as a significant underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight. He believes Garry's slick striking, body work, and BJJ will be enough to outpoint Rakhmonov. He notes Garry's durability is underrated and that the former sparring partner dynamic adds volatility. He trusts Garry's cardio and toughness to persevere.

Although the line is wide in favor of Rakhmonov, Gary could provide resistance with his technical striking and walk Rakhmonov into some shots. However, the ultimate difference maker will be Rakhmonov's aggressiveness, which will wear down Gary and lead to a finish within rounds three or four.

Paul picks Rakhmonov, emphasizing his finishing ability and superior competition. He criticizes Garry's hype and close fights, noting his takedown defense and cardio concerns. He thinks Rakhmonov's grappling will be the difference, but acknowledges the line is too heavy to bet heavily.

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat, but acknowledges Ian Garry's solid chance. He thinks Garry will be winning early, but Shavkat will crack him in the third or fourth round, leading to a momentum shift. He notes Garry is more likely to break (leg, hand, body shot) and that Shavkat's pressure and clinch work will be decisive. He predicts a TKO win against the cage in the late third or fourth round.

Cody picks Garry, emphasizing his youth, grappling advantage, and cardio. He notes that Page is 37 and has shown takedown defense issues, while Garry is a judo black belt with improving wrestling. Cody believes Garry will use leg kicks and clinch work to neutralize Page's movement, and that he can win a decision or possibly get a submission. He also mentions that Page's win over Kevin Holland was unimpressive and that Garry has the skills to implement a game plan.

Daniel took MVP at plus 125 for two units, his first time picking against Garry. He believes MVP's speed and unorthodox style can fluster Garry, and that Garry's wrestling advantage is mitigated by MVP's improved takedown defense. He acknowledges the age difference (11 years) but sees MVP as an anomaly. He is worried about Garry's top control but is letting it ride.

Daniel Vreeland picks Ian Garry because he believes Garry is smart enough to not let Michael Page fight his fight. He notes that Page's best performances come against opponents who are 'a little nuts' and willing to engage in chaos, but Garry is disciplined and won't be lured out of his game plan. Vreeland expects Garry to crowd Page, press him against the cage, and possibly mix in grappling to neutralize Page's striking range. He also points out that Garry has better grappling stats and is younger and more active.

Jeff Fox picks Ian Garry, stating that Garry has proven he knows how to stay safe and use range and distance better than Page. He notes that Page did not look impressive in his win over Kevin Holland and didn't put his foot on the gas, which could get him in trouble against Garry. Fox believes Garry is a very good deal at minus 137.

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

The host is confident in Garry, emphasizing his superior grappling. He believes Garry will exploit Page's takedown defense and use his wrestling to take the fight to the mat, where he can control or submit Page. He notes Garry is not outmatched on the feet and expects the line to move to -160 or -170 by fight time. He also mentions a submission prop at +900 as a sprinkle.

Paul picks Page by knockout, admitting he is betting with his heart because he dislikes Garry. He acknowledges that Garry has a grappling advantage but believes Page's power and flashy striking can end the fight at any moment. Paul notes that Page looked good against Kevin Holland and that Garry has been rocked before. He also mentions that Page is a plus-500 underdog by knockout, which offers value.

Angelo picks Ian Garry, citing his superior striking, hand speed, and footwork. He notes Garry is hittable but believes he can control range and avoid Neal's power. He plans to bet Geoff Neal inside the distance decision no action, as Neal is durable and has finishing upside. He is rooting for Neal but thinks Garry wins.

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal as a dog to win by second-round knockout. He notes Gary's poor striking defense (53%) and history of getting dropped, while Neal has heavy hands (nicknamed 'Hands of Steel'). He acknowledges Gary is likely winning minutes but believes Neal's power gives him a live chance to land a big shot. He mentions Neal's past health issues but thinks if he's healthy, he can knock Gary out.

Cody picks Garry, emphasizing his speed and range management. He notes Neal is a one-dimensional boxer who struggles with lateral movement, as seen against Wonderboy. He expects Garry to use his jab and footwork to outpoint Neal, though he acknowledges Neal's power. He dislikes Garry's persona but believes he wins on volume.

Daniel Vreeland picks Ian Machado Garry, citing his cleaner technical striking, better distance management, and superior striking defense. He notes Garry's leg kick heavy game plan against Magny (43/43 leg kicks) and believes Neal's hot-and-cold form since his near-death experience makes him unreliable. He also mentions Garry's takedown defense and five-round experience.

Neal is a deadly combination striker with power. He can close the pocket and exchange with Garry, opening a knockout opportunity. Garry relies on length and reach, but Neal's experience and technical advantages lead to a second-round KO.

Paul picks Garry despite wanting him to lose due to his persona. He notes Garry's length, technical striking, and ability to stay at range. He thinks Neal is one-dimensional and struggles with mobile strikers, as seen in the Wonderboy fight. He expects Garry to outpoint Neal with volume and lateral movement, though he acknowledges Neal's power threat.

Angelo is confident in Ian Garry, believing his striking speed and timing will keep Neil Magny at range and prevent him from using his grappling. He notes that Magny is stepping up on short notice and that Garry has shown he can overcome adversity, as in the Song Kenan fight. He expects a clear decision win similar to Garry's win over Darian Weeks.

Big Brady picks Ian Garry to win by third-round knockout, citing Garry's size, cardio, and power advantage. He notes Magny has been finished in 8 of 10 losses and struggled against Phil Rowe. Brady worries about Garry's striking defense but believes Magny lacks the power to exploit it.

Cody acknowledges Garry's talent but notes his past struggles and poor takedown defense. He thinks Magny could pose problems with wrestling, but Magny looked washed in his last fight. He expects Garry to win, likely by decision, but doesn't love the -400 line. He suggests Garry may not add much value to parlays.

Daniel Levi is sold on Ian Machado Garry, calling him one of the best prospects in the welterweight division. He notes that Garry has good takedown defense, a solid get-up game, and has gone five rounds. Levi believes Garry will not fall into the trap of clinching with Magny, as other prospects have, because of his range management and footwork. He acknowledges the price is trash at -500 but still likes Garry to win.

Lucrative James picks Ian Garry to dominate, citing the 11-year age difference, Magny's short notice, and Magny's tendency to get finished when he loses. He believes Garry has a good chance of finishing Magny, though he notes Garry is more of a point striker. He prefers the finish prop over decision.

Garry is the sharper striker and should land clean shots down the pipe. Magny struggles against technical strikers and has been finished before. Garry's ability to avoid the cage and pivot off will prevent Magny from grinding him. Expect a knockout finish, making the KO prop at even money a strong play.

Angelo picks Daniel Rodriguez with low confidence, calling him a great striker especially when not worried about takedowns. He notes Ian Garry is hittable and keeps his head straight up. He says Rodriguez will be the best striker Garry has faced and that Garry may not recover from being tagged like he did against Kanaan. He is not betting on this fight.

Big Brady thinks this fight is closer than the odds suggest. He notes Garry's striking defense is a liability, citing past fights where he got hit clean. Brady believes Rodriguez has the durability and volume to make it competitive, and expects a 15-minute striking fight that goes to decision. He picks the dog Rodriguez to pull off the upset, but acknowledges the UFC likely wants Garry to win and corrupt judges may favor him. He calls laying -300 on Garry 'whack'.

Cody picks Rodriguez as a value underdog, despite low confidence. He notes Rodriguez's experience and volume, but acknowledges Garry's speed and potential. He thinks Rodriguez could expose Garry's defensive flaws, but is not confident enough to bet heavily. He calls it a 'value pick' and places it at the bottom of his confidence list.

Connor picks Garry, emphasizing his fast start and ability to build momentum. He notes that Garry's low kicks will be a problem for Rodriguez, who hasn't faced good kickers. He thinks Rodriguez will have moments and may hurt Garry, but Garry's consistency and movement will earn him the win. He also mentions Garry's jab and straight punches as key tools.

Daniel Levi picks Ian Machado Garry, praising his confidence, striking volume, and well-rounded game. He notes that Garry has landed over 100 significant strikes in multiple fights and has knockdowns in three of his four UFC bouts. Levi believes Garry's speed and reach will be key, as Rodriguez does not have a reach or height advantage. He acknowledges Garry was dropped in his last fight but attributes that to facing a heavy hitter in Song Kenan, and notes that Rodriguez has also been dropped. Levi sees Garry winning a competitive fight, possibly even becoming the first to knock out Rodriguez.

Garry is the better striker, using distance, kicks, and a one-two down the pipe to pick apart Rodriguez. He is 11 years younger and trains at Kill Cliff FC. He may also look to take the fight to the ground to avoid Rodriguez's power. The fight will resemble Garry's win over Gabe Green, with Garry landing more consistently and winning by decision. Rodriguez is a tough test but Garry's youth and skill should prevail.

Paul picks Garry, noting his reach, technique, and cardio. He expects a close decision win for Garry, as Rodriguez doesn't have the skill set to expose him. He mentions adding Garry to a parlay at -250 but not a big play. He doubts Rodriguez's wrestling and believes Garry's speed and lateral movement will be key.

The MMA Guru picks Ian Machado Garry, highlighting his diverse striking and leg kicks. He notes that Daniel Rodriguez is a boxing-heavy fighter who stands heavy on his lead leg, making him vulnerable to leg kicks. He believes Garry will overwhelm Rodriguez with a variety of attacks and predicts a 30-27 decision.

Angelo is confident in Ian Garry, noting his hand speed, footwork, and takedown defense. He believes Garry should dominate Song Kenan, who has been away for two years and has poor wrestling. Angelo expects a finish, possibly by knockout.

Big Brady is confident in Ian Garry, citing advantages in striking, speed, volume, and power. He notes Garry's wrestling and grappling are also strong, giving him multiple paths to victory. He mentions Song Kenan's two-year layoff and that he is smaller and older. He predicts a second-round knockout for Garry.

Cody picks Garry but notes he's not impressed with his performances. He thinks Garry's footwork and reach will be too much for Song Kenan, who is raw and has been off for two years. He expects Garry to win but won't bet the -800 moneyline.

Connor confidently picks Ian Garry, noting that Garry is a huge welterweight with a reach advantage and superior technical striking. He believes Garry will be too busy and too long for Song Kenan, who relies on opponents rushing him. Connor also points out that Song Kenan has a shaky chin and has been knocked out by lesser strikers, so Garry's power and precision should lead to a finish.

Jacob calls Ian Garry the biggest lock on the card, praising his clean striking, counter-striking, and ability to go three rounds. He believes Song Kenan lacks speed and that Garry will put him away early. Jacob is a big fan of Garry as a fighter despite his personality.

Garry is a disciplined striker with good range management and a sneaky trip game. Song Kenan has been inactive for over two years and struggles against technically superior strikers. Garry will jab him up and likely get a second or third round stoppage.

Paul picks Garry but is more interested in props. He likes the over 0.5 takedowns for Garry on PrizePicks, thinking Garry may mix in takedowns to show improvement. He notes the -800 moneyline offers no value.

The MMA Guru picks Ian Machado Garry to win by KO, citing Song Kenan's inactivity and multiple KO losses. He notes Garry's crisp hands and reach advantage, and believes Garry will finish him.

Angelo picks Ian Garry, citing his hand speed and footwork, though he notes Garry is hittable and needs to clean up his defense. He believes Gabe Green's negative striking differential and high strikes absorbed will play into Garry's hands. He thinks Garry is overrated but not likely to lose this fight.

Big Brady picks Gabe Green as an underdog, citing Ian Garry's poor striking defense exposed in his debut. He believes Green's pressure and volume will trouble Garry, and predicts a late knockout. He acknowledges Garry's hype but thinks Green can expose his flaws.

Cody thinks Garry's counter-striking and judo will be effective against Green's linear pressure. He notes Green's wrestling is poor and Garry has cardio to go three rounds. He expects a decision win.

Daniel Levi is confident in Ian Garry, having bet 3.1 units to win 2 at -155. He praises Garry's skills, distance management, variety, and work ethic, noting that he moved to Sanford MMA to improve. Levi believes Green is there to be hit and gets hit too much, and that Garry's sniping style will be effective. He dismisses criticism of Garry's personality as irrelevant to betting.

Garry is the cleaner, crisper striker with a height advantage. Green is a tough, scrappy fighter who will push forward, but Garry should be able to pick him apart from distance. The host expects a close fight and thinks Garry wins by decision, but is not confident enough to bet.

Paul picks Garry but won't bet him at -185. He likes the over 70.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks and the decision prop at +240. He thinks Garry is a work in progress but will win.

Angelo picks Ian Garry but thinks the odds are too wide (should not be 2-1 favorite). He believes Garry's power and striking can touch up Weeks, but notes Garry's defensive holes and Weeks' wrestling threat. He thinks Garry will win but it's not a lock.

Big Brady picks Ian Garry to win by competitive decision. He is impressed with Garry's overall skills but worried about his striking defense, as he was hit a lot by Jordan Williams. Weeks is durable, has good wrestling and power, and has never been finished. Brady thinks Garry's higher skill and cardio will prevail, but he doesn't love the line.

Cody is hesitant, initially considering Weeks as a live underdog but ultimately sticking with Garry. He notes Garry's youth and striking precision, but worries about his lack of adversity and the transition from Cage Warriors. Cody thinks Weeks has a shot but that Garry's striking is better and he should win if it stays on the feet. He decides to fade his own underdog lean.

Levi is impressed with Garry's regional career, including his kicking game, stance switching, takedown defense, and heart. He thinks Garry is a real fighter who got out of his comfort zone to train at Sanford. He believes Darian Weeks is being overrated due to the Brian Barberena fight, and that Garry's clean striking will be too much. He has parlayed Garry with Petr Yan.

I initially wanted to fade Garry but after tape study, I think Weeks is not the guy to do it. Garry has size and reach advantages, good counter-striking, and will pick Weeks apart from the outside. Weeks telegraphs his big shots and slows down as fights go on. I see Garry getting a second or third round TKO.

Paul picks Garry despite not being impressed by his debut. He thinks Garry's striking is better than Weeks', and that Weeks' footwork and cardio looked poor against Barbarena. Paul notes Garry's size advantage and that this is a hand-picked opponent. He expects Garry to knock Weeks out, and is considering Garry by KO at +110.

Angelo picks Ian Garry, citing his crazy hand speed, fantastic footwork, and the hype around him. He believes Garry's speed will be a step ahead of Jordan Williams, who has a 1-to-1 striking differential. He acknowledges the fight is closer than the odds suggest because Williams has grappling ability, but thinks Garry's speed will be the difference. He also notes the over on the 1.5 round line as a potential play.

Big Brady is high on Ian Garry, calling him well-rounded with great striking, takedown defense, and grappling. He notes Garry's jab and volume will be key, while Jordan Williams is hittable and has poor cardio. Brady expects Garry to finish Williams late, possibly by head kick, as Williams has been finished three times at 170 pounds. He sees the first round as the most dangerous for Garry but thinks he'll take over.

Cody picks Garry, praising his striking, clinch work, and finishing ability. He notes Williams is slower at 170 and lacks durability. He warns about prospects but believes Garry's talent and training at Sanford MMA will prevail.

Daniel Levi picks Ian Garry to win, but says he wouldn't lay -400 due to the debut factor. He notes that Jordan Williams is much better at 185 than 170, and that cutting to 170 drastically affects his durability. Levi believes Garry is a stud with impressive wins over Jack Grant and Rostem Akman, but warns that debuts at Madison Square Garden can be tough. He expects Garry to win but sees value on Williams if he were at 185.

Jacob picks Ian Garry but expresses hesitation, calling the fight a potential trap. He notes Garry's youth (23) and raw striking, with a chin-up style that could get him caught. However, he believes Garry's camp at Sanford MMA and potential wrestling-heavy game plan will secure the win. He would not pay the -350 odds or the 9,500 DraftKings price.

The host is very high on Garry, citing his striking, takedown disguises, and offensive ground game. He expects Garry to submit Williams, noting Williams' poor cardio and recent submission loss to Mickey Gall. He likes Garry's submission prop at +450-500 and considers him a parlay piece.

Paul picks Garry, seeing him as a strong prospect with good striking and grappling. He notes Williams's struggles at 170 and lack of power. He expects Garry to win, though he warns about prospects adjusting to the UFC.