Fight card

UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw

July 24, 2021 UFC Apex Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S.
T.J. Dillashaw

T.J. Dillashaw W

18-5
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00
Fight 1 VS Bantamweight Completed

T.J. Dillashaw

Moneyline
FanDuel +180
KO/TKO
DraftKings +400
Submission
FanDuel +1700
Decision
FanDuel +650

Cory Sandhagen

Moneyline
Caesars -195
KO/TKO
BetMGM +140
Submission
BetMGM +1400
Decision
DraftKings +500
Fighter Stats

T.J. Dillashaw

Age40
Height5' 6"
Reach67"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Cory Sandhagen

Age34
Height5' 11"
Reach70.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - T.J. Dillashaw

5.09SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
3.47SApM
62.0%Str. Def.
1.56TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
77.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Cory Sandhagen

4.86SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
3.47SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
1.15TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
56.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

Angelo picks T.J. Dillashaw because he believes Dillashaw has better footwork, wrestling, and power. He notes that Dillashaw was a masterclass before the suspension and that the layoff may have allowed him to train the entire time. He has Dillashaw in his DraftKings lineup and has placed a moneyline bet. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight, expecting an active fight that goes the distance.

moneyline bet on T.J. Dillashaw; more/more on monkey knife fight
"i like tj dilshaw to win this fight tj dillashaw is in my lineup i did a money line bet on tj dillashaw"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Big Brady picks Cory Sandhagen due to Sandhagen's momentum, youth, and activity, while T.J. Dillashaw is coming off a 2.5-year layoff and PED suspension at age 35. He notes Sandhagen's significant size advantage (5 inches height, 2 inches reach) and high striking volume (6.85 sig strikes/min). He acknowledges Dillashaw's path via wrestling but questions his form post-suspension. He expects a competitive fight but leans Sandhagen by decision.

"I'll take san hagen to win by decision very intriguing fight... can't pick dillashaw here i can't do it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Cody picks Sandhagen, citing durability and cardio advantages. He notes Sandhagen has never been knocked out and has a great gas tank, while Dillashaw has durability concerns and a long layoff. He expects Sandhagen's volume to wear down Dillashaw over five rounds. He acknowledges the price is a bit high but still picks Sandhagen.

"i would think san hagen i would think this thing's scheduled for five it's probably going to three four or five if not the distance but i would think at some point the volume from san hagan starts …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Daniel Levi picks Cory Sandhagen to win, citing Sandhagen's length, size, and unpredictability as key advantages. He notes that Sandhagen is the 2021 version of Dillashaw's style but taller and longer, and that Dillashaw's chin may be suspect after the Cejudo knockout. Levi acknowledges Dillashaw's wrestling but doubts he will use it effectively, as he hasn't landed a takedown in years. He predicts Sandhagen will knock out Dillashaw, emphasizing that Sandhagen capitalizes on finishes unlike other fighters.

predicts Sandhagen by knockout
"i think corey sang comes out here knocks out tj dillashaw"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Jacob picks Cory Sandhagen because he thinks Sandhagen is the true talent and will find a way to finish T.J. Dillashaw. He notes that Dillashaw was almost finished by Cody Garbrandt and that Sandhagen is big, sharp, and uses his length well. He has Sandhagen in his DraftKings lineup but acknowledges that Dillashaw at $7,400 is incredible value. He expects a more/more fight.

"corsine hagen i think is the true tj honestly was in my lineup to start at 7 400 with his talent"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

The host leans toward T.J. Dillashaw as a dog, citing his wrestling advantage and experience. He believes Dillashaw can use takedowns to neutralize Sandhagen's striking. He notes Sandhagen's durability and finishing ability but thinks Dillashaw's grappling will be key. He likes Dillashaw by decision at +420.

Dillashaw by decision +420; Under 3.5 rounds -125 (mentioned as a possibility)
"i am leaning with the dog here with uh tj dillashaw i see his land ballooning up a little bit now he's at plus 165"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Paul also picks Sandhagen, agreeing with Cody. He mentions the price is close to correct but has a concern about Sandhagen's takedown defense after the Sterling loss. He notes Dillashaw's layoff and weight cut issues. He does not have cash on it but will investigate at weigh-ins.

over 3.5 rounds +140
"i'm picking sand hag in here i don't have any cash on it though we'll we'll investigate further at the weigh-ins"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The Guru picks Sandhagen due to his recent intensity and activity, contrasting with Dillashaw's 2.5-year layoff and age. He believes Sandhagen's length and kicking game, especially the question mark kick, will be key. He notes Dillashaw's chinny history and defensive habits that could be exploited. He predicts a first-round TKO via question mark kick, with Sandhagen setting it up with front kicks and inside leg kicks.

first round TKO via question mark kick
"i'm going to go with corey sandhagen first round tko question mark kicked it ahead"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

RA

Raulian Paiva W

Decision (majority) (29–28, 29–28, 28–28) R3 5:00
Fight 2 VS Bantamweight Completed

Raulian Paiva

Moneyline
FanDuel +270
KO/TKO
DraftKings +900
Submission
BetWay +1600
Decision
FanDuel +500

Kyler Phillips

Moneyline
BetRivers -278
KO/TKO
BetMGM +400
Submission
DraftKings +1000
Decision
BetMGM +100
Fighter Stats

Raulian Paiva

Age30
Height5' 8"
Reach69.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Kyler Phillips

Age30
Height5' 8"
Reach72.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Raulian Paiva

4.14SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
5.01SApM
48.0%Str. Def.
0.65TD Avg
23.0%TD Acc.
77.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Kyler Phillips

5.04SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
3.83SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
2.31TD Avg
45.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Raulian Paiva

Angelo picks Raulian Paiva because he thinks Paiva is a real threat on the ground with jiu-jitsu and is a good striker. He notes that Kyler Phillips has wrestling and fight IQ, but Paiva could cause problems. He is not confident and is not betting on this fight. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight, expecting a decision.

more/more on monkey knife fight
"paiva is my pick don't i'm not betting on that this is just a pick to have a pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Big Brady is very high on Kyler Phillips, especially after his impressive win over Song Yadong. He notes Paiva is moving up from 125 lbs and has poor striking defense (51%) and a negative striking differential. He expects Phillips to mix in takedowns (3 per 15 min, 63% accuracy) and win a convincing decision, as Paiva has been taken down in every UFC fight except one. He considers this a step down in competition for Phillips.

"i like phillips quite a bit and i'm gonna take him to win by a very convincing decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Cody picks Phillips, calling him a legitimate top ten guy. He praises Phillips' fight IQ, striking, and wrestling, noting his performance against Song Yadong. He thinks Paiva's move up to 135 removes his size advantage and that Phillips is on a different level. He considers Phillips a safe parlay piece.

"i think phillips is the real deal like a legitimate top ten guy in this division"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Daniel Levi picks Kyler Phillips to win, acknowledging Paiva's toughness but believing Phillips is too clean and will edge a decision. He notes that Paiva is dangerous with nothing to lose, but Phillips' footwork and technique are superior. Levi expects a close fight but sees Phillips' skill set prevailing, though he wouldn't play the -300 line against Paiva.

"i kind of see kyler being a little bit too clean kind of edging the decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Jacob picks Kyler Phillips as his lock of the week, calling him the 'king of lock of the weeks.' He praises Phillips' fight IQ and wrestling, noting that he gets takedowns when needed. He believes Phillips will dominate with wrestling and timely takedowns. He is very confident despite the short-notice opponent moving up in weight.

"he's the lock of the week this week i don't care if he's a two to one two and a half to one there whatever he's the lock of the week kyla phillips"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Raulian Paiva

The host leans toward Raulian Paiva as a dog, noting his striking and Muay Thai. He believes Paiva's move to 135 pounds will benefit his cardio and durability. He thinks the line is too wide and Paiva can make it a close fight. He likes Paiva by decision at +455 and the moneyline at +240.

Paiva by decision +455; Paiva moneyline +240
"i like paiva in this spot as well plus 240 ish is a great line i'm gonna be taking a shot on the money line there myself"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Paiva's biggest advantage was his size at 125, which is gone at 135. He notes Paiva hasn't looked ultra impressive and arguably lost to Zalgus. He sees Phillips as a surgeon and expects him to win on the feet or ground.

"i definitely think tyler phillips wins this fight whether it's stand up or on the ground"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

The Guru confidently picks Phillips, citing his size advantage at bantamweight, chain takedown ability, and mixing strikes with takedowns. He notes Paiva is a short-notice replacement and likely views this as a free payday. He predicts a first-round rear-naked choke submission, as Paiva has been outgrappled before.

first round submission via rear-naked choke
"kyla phillips first round submission i really like kyla phillips"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Darren Elkins

Darren Elkins W

29-12
TKO (punches) R2 3:48
Fight 3 VS Featherweight Completed

Darren Elkins

Moneyline
BetMGM +135
KO/TKO
BetRivers +900
Submission
DraftKings +600
Decision
BetWay +400

Darrick Minner

Moneyline
Caesars -155
KO/TKO
DraftKings +600
Submission
FanDuel +420
Decision
BetMGM +250
Fighter Stats

Darren Elkins

Age42
Height5' 10"
Reach71.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Darrick Minner

Age36
Height5' 7"
Reach69.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Darren Elkins

3.4SLpM
38.0%Str. Acc.
3.34SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
2.87TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
56.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Darrick Minner

2.63SLpM
65.0%Str. Acc.
2.28SApM
35.0%Str. Def.
2.4TD Avg
72.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
2.7Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

Angelo picks Darrick Minner because he is the more technical fighter, improving, and has a relentless pace. He expects Minner to take Elkins down and finish with elbows. He likes the under on rounds and the less/less on monkey knife fight, predicting a stoppage. He has Minner in his DraftKings lineup.

under on rounds; less/less on monkey knife fight
"i have derrick minor winning i have derrick minner in my lineup"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks the dog Darren Elkins despite his age (37) and damage taken, because he questions Darrick Minner's cardio after only one fight showing improved stamina. He notes Elkins has not been submitted since 2010 (only loss to Charles Oliveira) and has faced strong grapplers. He expects Minner to have early success but fade, allowing Elkins to finish late. He calls this the hardest fight to call on the card.

Elkins by second round finish (KO or sub)
"i'm gonna side with the dog and darren elkins... i'm going to say that elkins pushes a pace that manor is not going to be able to keep up with"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Cody picks Elkins as a dog, citing his experience against top competition and his wrestling and cardio advantages. He thinks Minner's style is erratic and his cardio is suspect, and that if Minner doesn't get a first-round submission, Elkins will grind him out. He notes Elkins is a larger man and should be able to wrestle him.

"i'm gonna go with jared elkins take a dog pick here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darrick Minner

Daniel Levi picks Darrick Minner to dominate, noting that Minner is in the best part of his career with Krause's coaching, while Elkins' best days are behind him. He expects Minner to control the minutes, possibly via doctor stoppage or clear decision, as Elkins cuts easily and gets taken down. Levi warns about Minner's history of being finished but believes Elkins won't win rounds.

"i think minor can open blood on this guy very early"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

Jacob picks Darrick Minner because he thinks Minner will eventually submit Elkins. He notes that Elkins is tough and has fought top competition, but Minner is younger and improving. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight, expecting a grappling-heavy fight with lots of action. He acknowledges that Elkins is always live but thinks Minner gets the job done.

more/more on monkey knife fight
"minor i think eventually we'll we'll submit them some minutes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darren Elkins

The host picks Darren Elkins, citing his durability, wrestling, and experience. He believes Minner's cardio issues will be exposed as Elkins pressures him. He notes Minner's recent decision win was against a weak opponent and that Elkins has not been submitted in over a decade. He likes Elkins by decision at +290 and also mentions Elkins inside the distance at +350.

Elkins by decision +290; Elkins inside the distance +350; Elkins round three +1700 (sprinkle)
"i do like darren elkins in the spot i'm gonna go uh out as an official pick i'm going to go with elkins by decision at plus 290"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a clear dogger pass. He notes Minner's last win was against Charles Rosa, who was complacent on the ground, and that Elkins will try to get back up. He mentions the only person to submit Elkins is Charles Oliveira. He already bet Elkins at +152.

"that was my first bet of the card i found a uh a plus 152"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

The Guru picks Minner, believing he is underrated and will outscramble Elkins. He criticizes Elkins' recent win over Eduardo Gagori as unimpressive, noting Gagori's padded record. He highlights Minner's wins over Charles Rosa and Terence McKinney, and his competitive grappling with Grant Dawson. He predicts a decision win via outscrambling.

"i'm going to pick him to beat darren elkins and get the job done"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Maycee Barber

Maycee Barber W

15-3
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 4 VS Women’s Flyweight Completed

Maycee Barber

Moneyline
FanDuel +136
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
DraftKings +1400
Decision
BetMGM +310

Miranda Maverick

Moneyline
BetRivers -150
KO/TKO
BetWay +1400
Submission
BetWay +750
Decision
FanDuel +125
Fighter Stats

Maycee Barber

Age28
Height5' 5"
Reach65.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Miranda Maverick

Age28
Height5' 3"
Reach65.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Maycee Barber

4.56SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
2.78SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
1.56TD Avg
45.0%TD Acc.
51.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Miranda Maverick

3.22SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
2.25SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
2.16TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
45.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Angelo picks Miranda Maverick because she is a more diverse striker and grappler, with more ways to win. He notes that Maycee Barber has not made adjustments after two losses and that Maverick is a killer. He thinks the -150 moneyline is solid value. He likes the less/more on monkey knife fight, expecting Barber to be high volume but Maverick to mix in grappling.

less/more on monkey knife fight
"miranda maverick's the pick here um and i think she's a safe draftkings lineup play too"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Big Brady picks Miranda Maverick, noting her massive improvements each fight, especially in striking. He acknowledges Barber may have a slight edge in striking but believes Maverick's volume, pressure, and takedown mixing will be key. He expects Maverick to win a decision, as Barber is on a two-fight losing streak and Maverick is trending up.

"i'll go with maverick i think she's definitely on the way up... take her to win by decision there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Cody picks Barber, citing her ferocious striking and damaging shots. He thinks Barber's grappling is not horrible and that she has better pop and volume. He notes Barber's move to Team Alpha Male and her youth. He sees it as a dogger pass and has a little bit on Barber.

"i got a little bit in on uh macy barber here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Daniel Levi picks Miranda Maverick, citing her well-rounded game and ability to mix takedowns, which could frustrate Barber. He acknowledges Barber's power and the question of how Maverick reacts to being hit, but if technique prevails, he favors Maverick. Levi notes that Barber showed heart in the Grasso fight but still has clinch issues, while Maverick is more technical.

"if it's just based off technique i'm going to go with maverick"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Jacob picks Miranda Maverick because she has incredible fight IQ and is nasty. He notes that Maycee Barber will look sharp but it won't be enough. He expects scrambles where Maverick will come out on top. He did not put Maverick in his DraftKings lineup because he thinks Barber will come out sharp, but he believes Maverick will be too much.

"i like miranda in this in this um fight i didn't put her in my lineup because i do think macy's gonna come out and look sharp"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Miranda Maverick

The host picks Miranda Maverick, citing her fight IQ and takedown ability. He believes Maverick will use well-timed takedowns to control Barber, who has been inconsistent and switched gyms. He notes Barber's power but thinks Maverick's grappling and cardio will be decisive. He likes Maverick by decision at +145.

Maverick by decision +145; Over 2.5 rounds -210 (parlay piece)
"i do like miranda maverick in the spot i like the progression that we're seeing from her"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Paul picks Maverick, favoring her size, strength, and consistent improvements. He criticizes Barber's camp changes and overprotective father, comparing her to Sage Northcutt. He thinks Maverick's grappling is a wash and that she has better footwork and striking improvements. He notes Barber's output numbers are inflated by finishes.

"i almost favored what maverick's doing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

The Guru picks Maverick for her technical striking, range control, and reach advantage. He criticizes Barber's technical flaws at range and her tendency to brawl. He notes Maverick's superior grappling and recent performances, including wins over Liana Jojua and Gillian Robertson. He predicts a decision win by keeping the fight at range and mixing in takedowns.

"i'm going with miranda maverick keeping it rangy keeping it clean"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Adrian Yañez

Adrian Yañez W

17-6-1
TKO (punches) R2 2:11
Fight 5 VS Bantamweight Completed

Adrian Yañez

Moneyline
BetRivers -225
KO/TKO
BetRivers +100
Submission
FanDuel +1100
Decision
BetMGM +450

Randy Costa

Moneyline
FanDuel +210
KO/TKO
FanDuel +460
Submission
BetWay +2000
Decision
BetWay +600
Fighter Stats

Adrian Yañez

Age32
Height5' 7"
Reach70"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Randy Costa

Age31
Height5' 9"
Reach73.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Adrian Yañez

5.96SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
5.24SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Randy Costa

6.53SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
7.58SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
50.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Angelo picks Adrian Yañez because he is a technical striker with fast hands, power, and an incredible chin. He expects Yañez to win by knockout in the late first or early second round. He has already bet the over 1.5 rounds and the more/more on monkey knife fight, believing the fight will be active and go past the first round despite Costa's history of early finishes. He thinks the odds are a bit wide and the fight is more competitive than implied.

over 1.5 rounds bet; more/more on monkey knife fight
"i have the over on rounds anytime i see rounds set at one and a half i really look at it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez to win by second-round knockout. He notes Yañez's power, volume, cardio, and durability (never knocked out), while Costa is a first-round finisher who fades if the fight extends. He highlights Costa's entire career has lasted about 12 minutes and he was finished in his only fight past the first round. He acknowledges Costa is live for an early finish but believes Yañez has more paths to victory.

Yañez by second round knockout
"i'll take giannis here i'll take him to win by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Cody picks Yanez, calling him a different level striker. He notes Yanez has never been finished by strikes and has a good chin. He thinks Costa is explosive but only dangerous in round one, and that Yanez's counter striking and boxing are clinical. He loaded up on Yanez at -170.

"the pick is yan as i just think he's just on a whole different level from a striking department"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Daniel Levi picks Adrian Yañez, emphasizing his smooth counter-striking, footwork, and head movement. He notes that Costa's wild style plays into Yañez's game, and that Yañez has a rock-solid chin and underrated ground game. Levi predicts a mid-second round TKO, as Costa lacks the experience to win a long battle and must finish early. He dismisses Costa's high-kick threat, stating Yañez has never been rocked.

predicts mid-second round TKO
"i'm gonna go with yanez here as well um i'm thinking probably mid second round tko"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Jacob picks Adrian Yañez because he is more technical and precise, while Randy Costa throws looping shots. He notes that Costa needs to use his length but doesn't throw straight punches. He also jokes that Costa's Twitter bio says 'professional bad decision maker,' which swayed him. He has Yañez in his DraftKings lineup and expects him to get the job done.

"i have uh janae's in my lineup and i think he's gonna win but that's just because i think he's just a little bit more technical a little bit more precise"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The host picks Adrian Yañez, praising his striking defense and counter-striking ability. He expects Yañez to weather Costa's early wild attacks and then find a knockout in the second round. He notes Costa's cardio issues and wild style play into Yañez's hands. He likes Yañez by KO at -110 and Yañez in round two at +425.

Yañez by KO -110; Yañez in round two +425
"adriana's by ko minus 110 makes the most sense here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Paul agrees, calling Yanez a top ticket play. He praises Yanez's slick counter punching, high guard, and ability to bait opponents. He notes Costa's only path is a bomb rush in the first round, and that Costa's social media focus on the peanut butter cup vs Dr Pepper meme might distract him. He thinks Yanez is a green version of Masvidal.

"janice is one of our guys i i imagine to me he feels like a top ticket play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The Guru picks Yañez for his superior technique and chin, contrasting with Costa's wildness and chin issues. He notes Costa's tendency to get clipped and his weight cut problems. He predicts a first-round KO via straight right hand as Costa loads up a switch kick. He also suggests betting on the fight ending in the first round.

first round KO; bet on fight ending in first round
"i'll say round one ko adrian yanez"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Brendan Allen

Brendan Allen W

26-7
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 6 VS Middleweight Completed

Brendan Allen

Moneyline
FanDuel +110
KO/TKO
DraftKings +1000
Submission
FanDuel +250
Decision
FanDuel +500

Punahele Soriano

Moneyline
DraftKings -110
KO/TKO
BetMGM +175
Submission
BetMGM +1400
Decision
FanDuel +600
Fighter Stats

Brendan Allen

Age30
Height6' 2"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Punahele Soriano

Age33
Height5' 11"
Reach72.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Brendan Allen

3.59SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
3.62SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
1.56TD Avg
42.0%TD Acc.
56.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Punahele Soriano

4.42SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
3.31SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
1.97TD Avg
51.0%TD Acc.
48.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Angelo does not make a clear pick for this fight, calling it a very hard fight to pick. He notes that Soriano has power and can knock anyone out, while Allen has high fight IQ and grappling. He leans toward grapplers but is undecided. He is confident in the over 1.5 rounds and likes the less/less on monkey knife fight, expecting a decision or late stoppage.

over 1.5 rounds bet; less/less on monkey knife fight
"this is a really hard fight to pick so much power on one side high fight iq and grappling on the other side"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Soriano's power (4 knockdowns in last two fights) and wrestling background, while Brendan Allen is very hittable (39% striking defense) and has a history of not attempting takedowns in key fights. He questions Allen's takedown success against Soriano's wrestling and expects the fight to stay standing, where Soriano's power will be decisive.

Soriano by first round knockout
"i will take soriano to win i'll take him to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Cody picks Soriano, citing his massive power and wrestling background. He thinks Allen has durability and cardio issues, and that Soriano will land a bomb. He notes Soriano's training at Extreme Couture with top partners. He is not fully on the bandwagon but expects a first-round finish.

"i'm gonna take soriano but again as much as it does sound like we're hyping him up pretty big"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Daniel Levi leans toward Punahele Soriano, citing his power and wrestling base, but notes that Allen's experience and jiu-jitsu are concerns. He questions Soriano's cardio and Allen's durability, stating that the fight starts on the feet where Soriano has the edge. Levi agrees that a dog price is needed to back Soriano, as Allen's body-lock takedowns could be a factor.

"i am also leaning puna i mean the fight does start on the feet he does have that wrestling base"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Jacob picks Brendan Allen but is not confident enough to put him in his DraftKings lineup. He thinks Allen will find a way to get the fight to the ground and submit Soriano, but he is wary of Soriano's power after being burned by him before. He notes that Soriano's last win was against a fighter who kept his hands down, so he's not as good as he looked.

"i think brennan wins the fight with this grappling with the submissions but i'm not picking against soriano again"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Punahele Soriano

The host picks Punahele Soriano, expecting him to use his power and wrestling to finish Brendan Allen early. He notes Soriano's D3 wrestling background and training at Extreme Couture. He believes Allen's durability is questionable and Soriano will find a knockout in the first round. He likes Soriano by KO at +165 and Soriano in round one at +300.

Soriano by KO +165; Soriano in round one +300
"puna by ko plus 165 puna in round one plus 300 i like that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Paul also picks Soriano, noting his power in both hands and developing fight IQ. He thinks Allen's gas tank is suspect and that Soriano's wrestling will keep the fight standing. He mentions the line movement and plans to bet Soriano. He sees Soriano as a coming out party.

"i'm drinking the kool-aid now i i haven't been all in on this guy up until this fight but i think it's time to to start taking some notice"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

The Guru picks Soriano, citing his power, chin, and ability to make opponents hesitant. He notes Allen's defensive holes on the feet, such as dropping his hands after exchanges. He believes Soriano's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, and predicts a first-round KO by landing a big shot over the top of Allen's combinations.

first round KO
"pinelli soriano gets to ko win i think he's just such a wrecking ball"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Nassourdine Imavov

Nassourdine Imavov W

17-4
TKO (punches) R2 3:09
Fight 7 VS Middleweight Completed

Nassourdine Imavov

Moneyline
Caesars +135
KO/TKO
BetMGM +650
Submission
FanDuel +2100
Decision
FanDuel +280

Ian Heinisch

Moneyline
FanDuel -154
KO/TKO
BetWay +600
Submission
FanDuel +1100
Decision
BetMGM +140
Fighter Stats

Nassourdine Imavov

Age30
Height6' 3"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Ian Heinisch

Age37
Height5' 11"
Reach72.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Nassourdine Imavov

4.28SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
3.17SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
0.74TD Avg
32.0%TD Acc.
81.0%TD Def.
1.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Ian Heinisch

3.25SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
2.98SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
1.02TD Avg
17.0%TD Acc.
59.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ian Heinisch

Angelo picks Ian Heinisch but notes it's a close fight. He thinks Heinisch's wrestling and pressure will be key, but Imavov is a good counter-striker and has decent grappling. He expects Heinisch to win a decision or via grappling control. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight because both fighters will be busy. He does not have Heinisch in his DraftKings lineup at $8,500 but thinks he's not a terrible play.

more/more on monkey knife fight
"highnish is my pick to win this fight um i i don't have him in my lineup at 8 500"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ian Heinisch

Big Brady picks Ian Heinisch by decision, citing a massive step down in competition for Heinisch and a step up for Imavov. He notes Heinisch can replicate Phil Hawes' game plan of holding Imavov against the cage and mixing takedowns. Despite Heinisch's low takedown accuracy (18%), he attributes it to facing elite wrestlers, while Imavov has been taken down frequently. He expects Heinisch's relentless wrestling and pace to overwhelm Imavov.

"i'm going to go with highness here to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ian Heinisch

Cody picks Heinisch, arguing that Imavov is not a wrestler and that Heinisch will finally be able to strike without worrying about takedowns. He notes Heinisch has fought elite grapplers and has good takedown defense. He expects Heinisch to mix in his own wrestling and win by decision. He also likes the over.

over 2.5 rounds, Heinisch by decision
"i got a strong feeling this thing's going the over and in the distance and i would go high initial kindness by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ian Heinisch

Daniel Levi leans toward Ian Heinisch, acknowledging he should be favored but at the current price it's a pass or Imavov. He expects a close fight with clinch exchanges, predicting Heinisch via split decision. Levi notes that Heinisch has fought better competition but has been losing rounds, while Imavov is a dog who won't quit.

"i'll lean highness you know i think kinda should be favored but at the current price i would say it's probably a mava of her pass"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ian Heinisch

Jacob picks Ian Heinisch because he believes Heinisch will out-wrestle Imavov, who tends to accept grappling positions. He notes that Imavov gassed in his last fight against Jordan Williams and that Heinisch, being a tough Rikers guy, won't tire. He doesn't like Heinisch enough to put him in his DraftKings lineup because if the wrestling fails, things could go south quickly.

"i like ian in this matchup i think he's going to out wrestle umavov"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ian Heinisch

The host picks Ian Heinisch, citing his wrestling and pressure advantage over Imavov. He believes Heinisch will take Imavov down and control him, especially as the fight progresses. He notes Imavov's grappling deficiencies and recent hand injury. He likes Heinisch by decision at +145 and also mentions a potential third-round finish.

Heinisch by decision +145; Heinisch round three +1575 (sprinkle)
"i do like highness by decision which is my most which is my favorite prop here plus 145"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ian Heinisch

Paul also picks Heinisch, noting his move to Sanford MMA and improved training. He thinks Imavov looked awful against Phil Hawes and has poor ring IQ. He likes Heinisch's power and has a small bet on Heinisch by KO at +700 and round 1 KO at +2000. He thinks the finish props have value.

Heinisch by KO +700, Heinisch round 1 KO +2000
"i took a little shot on ian heines i i went back and kind of watched the meerscher fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Ian Heinisch

The Guru picks Heinisch, valuing his close decision loss to Kelvin Gastelum over Imavov's loss to Phil Hawes. He notes Heinisch's grappling, power, and solid chin, and believes Imavov is open to getting clipped early. He also mentions Heinisch is fighting to stay relevant. He predicts a TKO win.

TKO
"i'm going to go the in high niche it's on the line for him i think he gets it done maybe by tko"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Mickey Gall

Mickey Gall W

7-7
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:57
Fight 8 VS Welterweight Completed

Mickey Gall

Moneyline
Caesars +150
KO/TKO
BetWay +1200
Submission
BetWay +500
Decision
BetMGM +450

Jordan Williams

Moneyline
DraftKings -170
KO/TKO
FanDuel +250
Submission
DraftKings +1400
Decision
BetRivers +225
Fighter Stats

Mickey Gall

Age34
Height6' 2"
Reach74.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Jordan Williams

Age35
Height6' 1"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Mickey Gall

3.5SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
4.72SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
1.15TD Avg
32.0%TD Acc.
37.0%TD Def.
1.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Jordan Williams

5.83SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
5.46SApM
35.0%Str. Def.
1.11TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
85.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jordan Williams

Angelo picks Jordan Williams because he thinks Mickey Gall is not very good and that Williams is the better MMA fighter. He notes that Gall's only notable win is over CM Punk. He expects Williams to win by outstriking Gall, though he acknowledges that if Gall wrestles heavily, he could win a decision. He has no bets on this fight due to too many unknowns.

"i think jordan williams is the better mma fighter i think jordan williams uh wins this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jordan Williams

Big Brady picks Jordan Williams to win by knockout. He highlights Williams' takedown defense (88%) and power, expecting him to stuff Gall's takedowns and keep the fight standing. He notes both fighters are hittable but Williams is the better striker with volume and a good chin. He expects Williams to be a big welterweight cutting from 185 and to finish Gall, who has been stopped by strikes before.

Williams by knockout
"i will go with george williams and stuff the takedowns keep it on the feet and maybe knock out mickey goal"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jordan Williams

Cody picks Williams, citing his power and durability. He notes Williams has been fighting bigger guys at middleweight and should have a striking advantage. He is concerned about Williams' weight cut due to diabetes but expects him to be fine. He thinks Gall's cardio and striking are suspect.

"williams is the pick"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jordan Williams

Daniel Levi picks Jordan Williams to finish Mickey Gall, citing Williams' hunger, preparation, and power. He notes that Gall's submission threat is overrated and that Williams is more physical and a better wrestler. Levi criticizes Gall's cardio and tendency to flop when tired, while Williams pushes through fatigue. He predicts Williams will set up his shots and knock Gall out.

predicts Williams by knockout
"i think jordan williams is coming in prepared and i think he will put him away i got jordan williams here to come out here and finish mickey all"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mickey Gall

Jacob picks Mickey Gall because he believes Gall is more talented on the ground and has good submissions. He notes that Jordan Williams has cardio issues due to being a type 1 diabetic, which could affect him in the fight. He expects Gall to shoot takedowns repeatedly, wear Williams down, and find a submission. He has Gall in his DraftKings lineup.

"i actually like mickey gall in this um fight and i think i ended up putting him in my lineup"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jordan Williams

The host leans toward Jordan Williams, citing his power and durability. He notes both fighters have cardio issues but believes Williams' toughness and ability to push forward will be key. He mentions Gall's improvements but questions his cardio. He likes the over 2.5 rounds and Williams by decision as a less confident play.

Over 2.5 rounds +100; Williams by decision (not specified odds)
"i would say williams was this fight i would say williams was a fight decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jordan Williams

Paul also picks Williams, noting his heart and durability. He criticizes Gall's career as a sideshow and his one-dimensional grappling. He expects Gall to win the first round but fade, while Williams' forward pressure will take over. He assumes the weight cut goes well.

"i'm going to end up going williams and we're just assuming the way cut's going to go good"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jordan Williams

The Guru picks Williams, citing his cardio, volume, and body work. He criticizes Gall's losses to past-prime Mike Perry and Diego Sanchez. He believes Williams will outgrind Gall over three rounds, with Gall possibly taking him down early but fading. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Williams.

"i'll go jordan williams i like jordan williams"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

JU

Julio Arce W

TKO (punches) R2 3:45
Fight 9 VS Bantamweight Completed

Julio Arce

Moneyline
BetRivers -200
KO/TKO
FanDuel +650
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
FanDuel +130

Andre Ewell

Moneyline
FanDuel +180
KO/TKO
DraftKings +900
Submission
DraftKings +1600
Decision
FanDuel +310
Fighter Stats

Julio Arce

Age36
Height5' 7"
Reach70.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Andre Ewell

Age38
Height5' 8"
Reach75.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Julio Arce

4.36SLpM
36.0%Str. Acc.
3.05SApM
68.0%Str. Def.
0.46TD Avg
28.0%TD Acc.
96.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Andre Ewell

4.28SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
4.87SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.36TD Avg
75.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Angelo picks Julio Arce because he is a high-volume striker with good striking defense and movement, and he mixes his boxing and kicks well. He notes that Andre Ewell has cardio issues due to his size and can't grapple. He expects Arce to win by decision after a potential slow first round due to his two-year layoff. He likes the 3.5 round prop on Ewell (buying a round) because Ewell might win the first round when fresh, then fade. He also likes the more/more on monkey knife fight.

Andre Ewell 3.5 round prop (buy a round on judge's scorecard); more/more on monkey knife fight
"i think he can take the first round when he's fresh and he's long and the range is trying to get figured out"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Big Brady picks Julio Arce by decision, noting Arce's superior competition and cardio advantage. He expects the fight to be competitive early but Arce will take over in the third round as Ewell slows down. He highlights Arce's positive striking differential and Ewell's tendency to fade. He thinks the line (-190) is a bit wide but still favors Arce.

"i'm gonna say rsa does win a pretty uh close decision in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Cody picks Arce, citing his slick boxing and good grappling. He thinks the move down to 135 is good for him. He notes Arce has been off due to surgeries but expects him to land the more impactful strikes. He likes Arce's chances as long as the weight cut works out.

"give me the guy landing the more impactful strikes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Andre Ewell

Daniel Levi picks Andre Ewell as a plus-180 dog, believing the line is off. He notes that Ewell is long for the weight class with a 75-inch reach, and that Arce tends to fight close. Levi expects a three-round stand-up war with both having moments, and predicts Ewell via split decision. He acknowledges Arce's better technical skills but thinks Ewell can make it close.

"i'm going to go with andre via split decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Jacob picks Julio Arce because he is a Golden Gloves boxing champion coming down to bantamweight, so Andre Ewell won't have the usual size advantage. He notes that Arce has never been KO'd and has good head movement. He thinks Arce will have no issues with Ewell and has him in his DraftKings lineup.

"julio is actually coming down in weight he's he's had that layoff but he's actually coming he's usually a featherweight guy coming down to bantamweight so andre won't be as big as he normally is"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Julio Arce

The host picks Julio Arce, noting his striking and grappling advantage, as well as his cardio edge. He expects Arce to pressure Ewell, who tends to fade in later rounds. He mentions Arce's layoff and ring rust concerns but believes his overall skills will prevail. He likes Arce by decision at +125 and also mentions a potential round three finish.

Arce by decision +125; Arce round three +1375 (sprinkle)
"i do like rsa rc by decision plus 125. that's going to be the side that i'm leaning with"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Paul also picks Arce, noting his superior boxing, southpaw stance, and overall skills. He warns about Ewell's reach and tendency to make fights close, but thinks Arce's wrestling and jiu-jitsu give him an edge. He is concerned about the layoff and surgeries but still picks Arce.

"i'm going to hit this one minus one on the julio rj and hope he brings it on home for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Andre Ewell

The Guru picks Ewell as an underdog, noting Arce's lack of leg kicks, which he suspects is due to shin issues. He believes Ewell's reach and range will be decisive, as Arce has no way to close distance or chop the legs. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Ewell, keeping the fight at range.

"i'm going with andre you're as an underdog here"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Sijara Eubanks

Sijara Eubanks W

8-7
TKO (punches) R1 3:49
Fight 10 VS Women’s Flyweight Completed

Sijara Eubanks

Moneyline
BetRivers -400
KO/TKO
FanDuel +310
Submission
BetRivers +400
Decision
FanDuel +150

Elise Reed

Moneyline
FanDuel +330
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1000
Submission
BetRivers +1800
Decision
DraftKings +600
Fighter Stats

Sijara Eubanks

Age41
Height5' 4"
Reach67.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Elise Reed

Age33
Height5' 3"
Reach63.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Sijara Eubanks

4.3SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.43SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
1.9TD Avg
44.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Elise Reed

3.41SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
3.26SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.46TD Avg
60.0%TD Acc.
53.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Angelo picks Elise Reed because Sijara Eubanks has cardio issues and is dropping to flyweight, which will exacerbate those problems. He notes that Eubanks is much better than her record but her cardio is a big issue. He already placed a half-unit moneyline bet on Reed. He also likes the over on the monkey knife fight line and the 3.5 round prop (buying a round on the scorecard), expecting Reed to win at least one round.

half unit moneyline bet on Elise Reed; over on monkey knife fight line; 3.5 round prop (buy a round on judge's scorecard)
"i did already do a half a unit money line on a lease read because i do like elise here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Sijara Eubanks

Big Brady picks Sijara Eubanks to win by submission. He notes Eubanks has fought much better competition and is a legit black belt, while Reed is green and moving up a weight class. He expects Eubanks to take the fight down and grind out a finish, though he warns about Eubanks' weight cut (dropping to 125) and potential to gas. He believes even if Eubanks fades, she will have secured two rounds.

Eubanks by submission
"i think eubanks does get it done and i'm gonna say she gets it done by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sijara Eubanks

Cody picks Eubanks, calling it a walk in the park stylistically. He notes Eubanks' size, wrestling, and BJJ are too much for Reed, who has poor takedown defense. He is concerned about Eubanks' weight cut but thinks if she makes weight, she wins easily. He does not include her in parlays due to weight cut risk.

"this should be a walk in the park no problem for sinjar eubanks"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sijara Eubanks

Daniel Levi picks Sijara Eubanks, acknowledging her experience and black belt, but notes she has dropped similar prices before. He warns that Reed is tough and could make it interesting on the feet, but Eubanks should get the job done. Levi doesn't buy into the gassing narrative, but says Eubanks makes bonehead mistakes.

"i'm gonna go to jar right here but again it could get very interesting"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Jacob picks Elise Reed based on value, noting that Sijara Eubanks is a -300 favorite despite having nine straight decisions and cardio issues. He sees Reed at +690 as great value and believes the line should be closer to -300 for Eubanks. He is worried about Reed's inexperience but thinks her volume and pressure will be too much for Eubanks, who has cardio problems and is dropping weight.

"i'm taking 6 900 and the value in elise reed"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sijara Eubanks

The host picks Sijara Eubanks, citing her size and grappling advantage over Elise Reed, who is moving up from strawweight. He believes Eubanks will drag the fight to the ground and use her BJJ to secure a submission, possibly her first UFC finish. He notes Reed's takedown defense issues and Eubanks' improved cardio, though he acknowledges Eubanks has never submitted anyone professionally. He likes Eubanks inside the distance at +170.

Eubanks inside the distance +170; Eubanks by decision +120 (Cody's lean)
"i do like to draw eubanks inside the distance in the spot i think it's plus 175 is what i'm looking at"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sijara Eubanks

Paul agrees, noting Eubanks' size and grappling advantage. He criticizes Reed's takedown defense and grappling. He thinks if Eubanks does even half of what she's capable of, she wins. He warns about weight cut issues but still picks Eubanks.

"if she just does even half of what she's capable of doing she wins this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Sijara Eubanks

The Guru picks Eubanks, citing her toughness, experience, and close fight with Aspen Ladd. He notes Reed's split decision wins outside the UFC against lower-level competition. He believes Eubanks' UFC experience and desperation (fighting for her career) will lead to a unanimous decision win.

"i'll go with ciara eubanks to get the job done here against a newcomer elise reed"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Diana Belbiţă

Diana Belbiţă W

15-10
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 11 VS Women’s Strawweight Completed

Diana Belbiţă

Moneyline
FanDuel -108
KO/TKO
FanDuel +750
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
FanDuel +175

Hannah Goldy

Moneyline
DraftKings +100
KO/TKO
FanDuel +750
Submission
FanDuel +1400
Decision
DraftKings +165
Fighter Stats

Diana Belbiţă

Age29
Height5' 7"
Reach68"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Hannah Goldy

Age34
Height5' 4"
Reach61.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Diana Belbiţă

6.45SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
6.55SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.86TD Avg
62.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Hannah Goldy

5.19SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
4.67SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.66TD Avg
12.0%TD Acc.
54.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Diana Belbiţă

Angelo picks Diana Belbiţă because she has solid takedown defense, is just as busy as Hannah Goldy, and is much taller. He notes that Hannah is strong but doesn't have knockout power or use her physicality to ragdoll opponents. He calls this a 'pick 'em fight' and advises not to bet on it, as the odds at +155 aren't enough to justify a bet. He also likes the over on the monkey knife fight line, expecting a high-volume decision.

over on monkey knife fight line (more/more)
"i also have diana balbita winning because her takedown defense is very solid she's just as busy and she's much much taller"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Diana Belbiţă

Big Brady picks Diana Belbiţă as the dog, citing her significant reach advantage (7.5 inches) and ability to keep the fight standing. He notes Hannah Goldie struggled against Miranda Granger's reach and expects Belbiţă to use her length to win a decision. He acknowledges Belbiţă's poor fight IQ in her last bout but believes she won't make the same mistake here.

Belbiţă by decision
"i'll take balbita as the dog here overhand at goldie... getting me down at balbita to win the fight by a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Cody does not make a clear pick, calling it a stay away fight. He notes both fighters have question marks and the line has moved to a pick'em. He says if he had to force a dog, he would take the dog, but he doesn't have a firm stance.

"this is like the definition of stay away from me because i don't really trust either one of them"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Hannah Goldy

Daniel Levi picks Hannah Goldy, expecting her to tip and run from the outside and win a close decision. He notes that Belbiţă is aggressive but redlines and makes mistakes, while Goldy is the polar opposite, playing it safe. Levi acknowledges the layoff for Goldy but expects improvements, and sees value in Goldy at the pick'em price.

"i'm going to go against the public here i'm going to take hannah goldie be a close decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Diana Belbiţă

Jacob picks Diana Belbiţă based on her walkout with a fox draped over her shoulders, calling it 'enough for me.' He acknowledges that neither fighter is very good and that the fight is tough to pick. He notes that Hannah Goldy looked green on the ground in a grappling match he watched. He does not express strong confidence and sees the fight as a toss-up.

"i'm going with diana just because there was one fight where she came out with a fox draped over her shoulders"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Diana Belbiţă

The host picks Diana Belbiţă, noting her striking advantage and reach (68 inches vs Goldy's 61). He acknowledges her poor fight IQ in the past but believes the year off and training with Adrian Wooley and Kyle Nelson will help. He expects Belbiţă to keep the fight at distance and win by decision, as Goldy is durable but has struggled against longer opponents. He also mentions a potential TKO finish but leans decision.

Belbiţă by decision +175; Belbiţă by TKO +650 (sprinkle)
"i got to go with the babita side of things as i do believe she's going to be able to land the more impactful shots"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul also does not make a clear pick, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes Belbiţă has a reach advantage and Goldy has output but is coming off a long layoff. He says if you got plus money on Belbiţă earlier, that was the move, but now it's even money and he doesn't have a firm stance.

"yeah it's definitely stay away but i would say it's a 50 50."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Diana Belbiţă

The Guru picks Belbiţă as an underdog, citing her experience, youth, and activity advantage over Goldy. He criticizes Goldy's inactivity and questions her commitment due to her OnlyFans account. He notes Belbiţă's reach advantage and believes she will win by decision.

"i'm actually going to go with deanna bell beta here as an underdog"
Fight Notes

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