Elise Reed

Angelo picks Denise Gomes, acknowledging that the odds are wide but understanding why she is the favorite. He notes that Elise Reed is a gamer and can make it competitive, but Gomes is a very good fighter who can grapple and strike. He mentions that without Jacob in Reed's corner, there is concern about her getting held against the cage. He thinks Gomes will win if she moves forward and uses pressure.

Big Brady picks Denise Gomes, highlighting her power and ground-and-pound. He notes Elise Reed's huge hole in her ground game, with all four losses by finish. He predicts Gomes will hurt Reed on the feet or take her down and submit her in the second round.

The host is surprised by the wide line, noting Gomes is not a high-level grappler and doesn't often look to grapple, which has been Reed's issue. He thinks if it's a striking battle, Reed can be competitive with her taekwondo background. He leans with Gomes due to her physicality and clinch work, but says don't be surprised if Reed pulls off the upset. Official prediction is Gomes by decision.

Angelo picks Elise Reed because he believes Jessica Penne, at 41 years old and coming off a disinterested performance, is not fully committed to fighting anymore. He notes Reed's busy striking, good cardio, and inconsistency but thinks she is the hungrier fighter. He sees value at -150 and also likes the over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet. He speculates Penne is more focused on her post-fighting career and won't have the same drive.

Big Brady picks Jessica Penne by first-round submission. He highlights Reed's terrible ground game, with four submission losses, and Penne's BJJ black belt. He notes Penne is 41 and coming off a layoff, but if she gets the fight to the mat, she will submit Reed. He is surprised Reed is favored.

Connor picks Reed, though he doesn't feel good about it. He notes that Reed has natural power and can crack, and that she has been able to win fights despite her flaws. He acknowledges that Reed often stops fighting after hurting opponents, but thinks she might be able to knock Penne out or do enough to win.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

Reed is a striker and can keep the fight upright enough to batter Penne and win on the scorecards. However, Penne winning by submission at +500 is a tempting sprinkle, as it could take just one back take or takedown for Penne to utilize her jiu-jitsu advantage. The official prediction is Reed by decision.

The Guru initially does not want to pick Jessica Penne due to her age (41) and recent losses, but after considering that Elise Reed is 'garbage' and Penne is taller and rangier, he decides to take the underdog. He admits he doesn't normally check odds beforehand but notes Penne is an underdog and goes with her.

Angelo picks Lupita Godinez as the better fighter, citing her size, strength, and wrestling. He acknowledges her inconsistency and notes that the version that fought Cynthia Calvillo would lose to Elise Reed. He believes Godinez should win but considers the odds too wide to bet due to her unreliability.

Big Brady picks Godinez but expresses concern about her fight IQ and recent reluctance to wrestle. He notes that if Godinez wrestles, she should dominate easily, as Reed has poor ground game and takedown defense. However, if Godinez strikes, the fight could be closer. He predicts Godinez will eventually take the fight to the mat and submit Reed in the second round.

Cody picks Godinez, emphasizing her size, strength, and wrestling advantage. He notes Reed's poor takedown defense and Godinez's ability to win even if she strikes. He expects Godinez to control the fight and possibly get a submission, but thinks a decision is also likely.

Daniel Levi is confident in Lupita Godinez, citing her wrestling advantage as Elise Reed has been taken down in every UFC fight. He notes Godinez's high output in her last fight and believes she can win on the feet as well, but the path of least resistance is through takedowns. Levi expects Godinez to dominate and sees this as a showcase for her improved skills.

Godinez has a tremendous wrestling advantage over Reed, who has been submitted in losses to grapplers. Godinez's striking is underrated, but she should focus on takedowns and top control. Reed alternates wins and losses and is coming off a win, so she's due for a loss. I expect Godinez to drag the fight to the ground and finish inside the distance.

Paul picks Godinez confidently, noting she can win anywhere but should wrestle. He mentions her inconsistency in game plans but believes she is a massive step up in competition for Reed. He sees a first-round submission as very possible if she wrestles.

Angelo has a very slight lean to Frey, thinking she can slow down Reed's pace by using cage control and takedowns. He is concerned about Frey's age (38) and recent knockout loss, but believes her experience and grappling can neutralize Reed's tenacity. He notes Reed is tough and hits hard but is inconsistent. Angelo is not spending money on this fight.

Cody picks Reed, citing her improvements fight to fight. He notes Reed's striking volume and that she has shown wrestling improvements in some fights. Cody acknowledges Reed's inconsistency but thinks Frey's lack of wrestling and recent knockout loss are concerns. He picks Reed but feels awful about it.

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Frey seems to hate fighting and has become a low-output, hesitant fighter. He notes that Reed has improved her combination striking and carries real power, especially with her body kicks and straight right. Connor believes that once Reed lands cleanly, Frey's confidence will shatter, leading to a finish or a clear decision for Reed.

Daniel picks Frey via a coin flip, but notes that Frey has a grappling advantage and has shown she will wrestle when needed. He sees Reed as having been finished by fighters who don't usually finish, and Frey's black belt could be the difference. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

Jacob picks Elise Reed, citing her power and the matchup being tailor-made for her. He thinks Frey is not the pressure fighter who can get in Reed's face, especially coming off a knockout loss. Jacob believes Reed will pick Frey apart from distance and hurt her. He plans to bet on Reed live or closer to the fight. He also likes Reed inside the distance at -155.

Reed is a striker with deceptive power and good footwork. She can keep the fight upright and land damaging blows. Frey is a BJJ brown belt who will look for takedowns and submissions. Reed's best path is to avoid the ground and find a knockout, but confidence is low. The under 2.5 rounds is a better bet.

Paul picks Frey, noting that Reed has been inconsistent and that Frey is a veteran. He mentions Reed's struggles when opponents have a wrestling advantage, but he's not sure who has that edge. Paul is not confident and says he won't bet this fight, but he picks Frey.

The MMA Guru confidently picks Elise Reed, calling it a no-brainer. He argues that Jinh Yu Frey is 38, coming off a KO loss, and should have lost to Vanessa Demopoulos, who he considers awful. He believes Reed will outbox Frey on the feet, as Frey lacks the grappling to take Reed down. He also notes Reed's win over Cory McKenna, who has good takedowns, as evidence of Reed's striking ability.

Angelo picks Loma Lookboonmee, praising her Muay Thai striking and improved wrestling. He notes that her two UFC losses were to tough veterans, and she should win both striking and takedown exchanges against Elise Reed. He plans to bet on Loma's takedown lines when they drop, expecting her to out-grapple Reed.

Big Brady likes Loma everywhere: at distance, in the clinch, and on the mat. He highlights Loma's Muay Thai in the clinch and her ground-and-pound elbows. He expects Loma to get the fight down and finish Reed by TKO in the second or third round, citing Reed's poor grappling defense.

Cody picks Lookboonmee, noting her Muay Thai clinch and improved wrestling. He thinks she can close the distance and wear on Reed with short elbows and knees. He sees Reed as a live underdog due to her reach and range striking, but ultimately thinks Lookboonmee grinds out a decision.

Connor picks Lookboonmee, stating that Reed's best hope is to overwhelm opponents with speed or power early, but Lookboonmee is calm and has been hurt before without falling apart. He notes that Lookboonmee's striking experience will benefit her, and that Reed's singular dangerous moments are not enough to put Lookboonmee away.

Lookboonmee's leg kicks and clinch elbows will be effective against Reed's Taekwondo blitzes. Reed has shown good defensive grappling and strength, which could stifle Lookboonmee's takedowns. Lookboonmee's grappling improvements allow her to stay calm in bad positions. Reed is a live underdog who has pulled off upsets before. Lookboonmee should outpoint Reed over three rounds, but confidence is not high due to Reed's toughness and strength.

Paul is confident Lookboonmee wins, citing her grappling advantage and ability to take down opponents at will. He notes she has takedowns against Denise Gomes and Sam Hughes. He thinks she can win on the feet with Muay Thai but will likely use wrestling to control the fight. He likes the over on her takedowns on PrizePicks.

The MMA Guru picks Loma Lookboonmee over Elise Reed, calling it a no-brainer. He notes Lookboonmee's close losses to Angela Hill and Lupita Godinez, and her dominant wins over lower-level fighters. He expects a dominant 30-27 decision, as Reed was exposed on the ground by Sam Hughes.

Angelo picks Melissa Martinez, citing her legitimate power, solid takedown defense, and clinch throws. He notes Elise Reed is active but has lost via grappling, and while Reed is technical, Martinez's toughness and power should prevail. However, he is not placing a moneyline bet because Martinez is making her UFC debut.

Big Brady admits he is usually an Elise Reed hater due to her poor takedown defense and ground game, but notes that Melissa Martinez does not wrestle, so Reed's weakness won't be exploited. He highlights Martinez's three-year layoff and ring rust concerns, while Reed has fought better competition. He calls it a super close fight and takes the dog Reed by decision.

Cody leans towards Elise Reed as a dog, noting that Martinez has not fought in three years and that her grappling looked weak. He believes if it's a stand-up fight, it's 50-50, so he takes the underdog. However, he is not betting it and says there are better spots.

Daniel Levi picks Melissa Martinez but with low confidence. He notes that Reed has UFC experience and decent standup, but Martinez has been out since 2019 and is unproven. He expects a standup fight and predicts Martinez wins a controversial split decision.

Jacob disagrees, picking Elise Reed as the more technical striker. He thinks Martinez is raw with looping shots and no head movement, while Reed has volume, speed, and technical boxing. He believes if it stays a striking match, Reed's technicality will land more. However, he admits if it becomes a brawl, Martinez's toughness wins, and he might sprinkle a small bet on Reed.

The host picks Melissa Martinez but is hesitant due to her being a UFC newcomer and the line being somewhat accurate. He expects Martinez to be faster, more dynamic, and carry more power, likely winning a decision. He notes both women are strikers and doesn't expect grappling.

Paul leans towards Melissa Martinez, noting her kickboxing background and that she has been active in kickboxing. He believes she will use leg kicks to slow Reed's movement. However, he says the price is not good and it's probably a stay-away fight.

Angelo picks Sam Hughes based on her grappling performance in her last fight, where she showcased takedowns and control time. He notes that Elise Reed was taken down four times in two fights, making the takedown the difference. However, he acknowledges it's a close fight and that Elise Reed is better than people think. He is hesitant because both women are coming off career-saving wins.

Big Brady picks Elise Reed because she is the better striker with improved takedown defense. He notes Sam Hughes is a walking punching bag with poor striking defense, and Reed should win on the feet. He predicts a decision win for Reed but says he is not betting on this fight.

Cody picks Reed confidently, citing her superior striking, footwork, and cardio. He notes Hughes' lack of offense and tendency to rely on opponents gassing. He believes Reed will outpoint Hughes from range and avoid takedowns, winning a decision.

The host picks Sam Hughes as his free pick of the night at +145. He believes Hughes's path to victory involves grappling, either takedowns or control time against the cage. He expects Hughes to implement her grappling and grind out a win. He is confident enough to bet one unit on her.

Paul agrees with Cody, saying Reed's kicking game and cardio should be too much for Hughes. He notes Hughes' only win came against a gassed opponent and that Reed won't tire. He is confident in Reed.

Angelo picks Cory McKenna, citing her well-rounded game and willingness to work takedowns as the difference. He notes that Elise Reed has real power but McKenna is very tough and busy. He warns that McKenna is only 22 and this is her biggest fight, so she might freeze, but he still likes her to win. He says the odds are far too wide.

Big Brady picks Cory McKenna to win by second-round submission. He is impressed with McKenna's wrestling and grappling, noting she has been grappling since a young age and trains at Team Alpha Male. He believes McKenna is levels above Elise Reed on the ground and will get the fight down and submit her. Brady acknowledges Reed may have a power advantage on the feet but thinks McKenna's ground game will be decisive.

Cody picks McKenna, citing her pressure and grappling advantage. He thinks Reed's kicking game will be nullified by McKenna's clinch and takedowns. He notes Reed's poor takedown defense and believes McKenna will win by decision or submission.

Daniel Levi leans toward Cory McKenna but is not confident due to red flags: McKenna's 58-inch reach, concussion issues, and both fighters' inexperience. He believes McKenna has an edge on the ground, but the price is too high to lay. He calls it a pass or dog situation, noting that Elise Reed has a striking advantage if it stays standing. Levi does not provide a strong pick.

McKenna's wrestling is slightly overrated; she may land takedowns but struggle to control Reed on the ground. Reed has a striking advantage with her taekwondo background, moving in and out well and landing big shots. McKenna's durability and the hometown crowd could sway judges, but Reed's ability to get back to her feet and damage opponents makes this closer than the line suggests. I'm picking McKenna via decision, but I might take a small poke on Reed at plus money.

Paul picks McKenna, noting he has already parlayed her. He emphasizes her pressure and wrestling, and thinks Reed's lack of strength and grappling will be exposed. He believes McKenna's game plan is clear: pressure and takedowns.

Angelo picks Elise Reed because Sijara Eubanks has cardio issues and is dropping to flyweight, which will exacerbate those problems. He notes that Eubanks is much better than her record but her cardio is a big issue. He already placed a half-unit moneyline bet on Reed. He also likes the over on the monkey knife fight line and the 3.5 round prop (buying a round on the scorecard), expecting Reed to win at least one round.

Big Brady picks Sijara Eubanks to win by submission. He notes Eubanks has fought much better competition and is a legit black belt, while Reed is green and moving up a weight class. He expects Eubanks to take the fight down and grind out a finish, though he warns about Eubanks' weight cut (dropping to 125) and potential to gas. He believes even if Eubanks fades, she will have secured two rounds.

Cody picks Eubanks, calling it a walk in the park stylistically. He notes Eubanks' size, wrestling, and BJJ are too much for Reed, who has poor takedown defense. He is concerned about Eubanks' weight cut but thinks if she makes weight, she wins easily. He does not include her in parlays due to weight cut risk.

Daniel Levi picks Sijara Eubanks, acknowledging her experience and black belt, but notes she has dropped similar prices before. He warns that Reed is tough and could make it interesting on the feet, but Eubanks should get the job done. Levi doesn't buy into the gassing narrative, but says Eubanks makes bonehead mistakes.

Jacob picks Elise Reed based on value, noting that Sijara Eubanks is a -300 favorite despite having nine straight decisions and cardio issues. He sees Reed at +690 as great value and believes the line should be closer to -300 for Eubanks. He is worried about Reed's inexperience but thinks her volume and pressure will be too much for Eubanks, who has cardio problems and is dropping weight.

The host picks Sijara Eubanks, citing her size and grappling advantage over Elise Reed, who is moving up from strawweight. He believes Eubanks will drag the fight to the ground and use her BJJ to secure a submission, possibly her first UFC finish. He notes Reed's takedown defense issues and Eubanks' improved cardio, though he acknowledges Eubanks has never submitted anyone professionally. He likes Eubanks inside the distance at +170.

Paul agrees, noting Eubanks' size and grappling advantage. He criticizes Reed's takedown defense and grappling. He thinks if Eubanks does even half of what she's capable of, she wins. He warns about weight cut issues but still picks Eubanks.