Julio Arce

Angelo is confident Julio Arce will win, citing his solid striking, volume, and 94% takedown defense. He criticizes Herbert Burns for quitting in his last fight and doubts Burns can get takedowns. However, he avoids betting due to Arce's long layoff and steep -550 price.

Cody is wary of Arce's layoff, weight class move, and injuries, but still picks him because Burns is unreliable and quits when his early submission doesn't work. He thinks Arce's volume and durability will carry him, but the -400 price is unappealing.

Daniel Vreeland picks Julio Arce but calls it a dog-or-pass situation at -400. He acknowledges Arce's solid striking and takedown defense but notes Burns' elite jiu-jitsu and motivation. He thinks Burns could get an early submission if Arce makes a mistake, but Arce is the safer pick. He won't lay the price.

Arce is a talented Muay Thai striker with head kicks and combinations. Burns has a terrible gas tank and fades if he doesn't finish early. Arce should stay at distance, land pot shots, and work the body. Burns will present early danger but Arce will take over in the second and third rounds, finishing via TKO. Prediction: Arce round 3.

Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting Burns' history of quitting and Arce's potential advantages. He doesn't love the price but sees Arce as the likely winner.

Angelo believes Julio Arce is the better technical striker but has a suspect chin. He trusts Montel Jackson's wrestling and power, noting that Jackson's only losses are to wrestlers who out-grappled him. He thinks Jackson will win by using his takedowns and power, rather than trying to out-strike Arce. He mentions that the takedown prop lines will be interesting and that he will likely bet on Jackson's takedowns.

Big Brady picks Montel Jackson to win by decision. He highlights Jackson's size, reach, power (10 knockdowns in UFC), and wrestling (over 4 takedowns per 15 minutes at 78% accuracy). He notes Arce has good takedown defense (94%) but hasn't faced many wrestlers. He believes Jackson will mix takedowns and land the bigger shots, winning a decision. He also mentions Jackson's youth and power advantage.

Cody picks Arce, citing his excellent footwork, volume, and 94% takedown defense. He notes that Jackson has not fought top competition and that Arce's movement and striking should give Jackson trouble. Cody thinks if Jackson can't take Arce down, Arce will outpoint him. He is not highly confident but sees value at plus money.

Connor picks Arce, noting that Jackson has not improved in four years and lacks depth in his grappling and striking. He points out that Arce is a complete fighter with sharp footwork and counters, and that Jackson's wrestling is not good enough to hold Arce down. Connor also mentions that Arce has been getting better and has faced higher-level competition.

Daniel Levi picks Montel Jackson, citing his immense talent, power, wrestling, and physical attributes. He notes that Jackson has knockout power and a reach advantage, but his work ethic is questionable. Levi believes if Jackson shows up focused, he can dominate. He respects Arce's point-fighting style but thinks Jackson's power and wrestling will be the difference.

The host believes Arce is the better technical striker with superior footwork and kicks, and his 94% takedown defense should keep the fight standing. He questions Jackson's competition level, noting his wins are over lower-tier opponents and he struggles against better grapplers. Arce's output and volume should frustrate Jackson, leading to a decision win. The host acknowledges Arce's durability concerns but sees value at +175.

Paul also leans towards Arce, agreeing with Cody's analysis. He notes that Jackson is enormous for the weight class and that Arce will have to eat shots to get inside, but if Arce keeps the fight standing, it should be close to a pick'em. Paul is not confident but goes with Arce.

The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson, citing his underrated prospect status, massive hands, and physical advantages like a 5.5-inch reach advantage. He believes Jackson can outwork Arce on the feet and predicts a close split decision 29-28. He notes Jackson's grappling defense against good grapplers like Brett Johns and Ricky Simon.

Angelo picks Julio Arce but notes he likes Daniel Santos as a live underdog. He thinks Arce's wrestling can be key to slowing Santos' striking. He also likes a prop bet on Santos winning inside the distance with a safety net (refund if decision).

Cody leans towards Santos as an underdog, citing the unknown factor and Santos' two-and-a-half-year layoff for improvement. He notes Santos' spinning techniques and aggression, and that Arce has been knocked out before. Cody thinks Santos could be a live dog and plans to play him in DFS due to low ownership.

Daniel Levi acknowledges Julio Arce's experience and fundamental soundness but sees Arce as having peaked, while Santos is a young, improving fighter with aggression and wrestling defense. He is concerned about Santos's three-year layoff and first time under bright lights, but believes Santos at 27 is a better version than at 24. At plus money, he is willing to roll the dice on the upset.

I love the underdog price on Santos. He is wild, aggressive, and crashes the pocket, which is where Arce struggles. Arce has trouble when opponents engage with him in the pocket. Santos can land big shots and possibly get a knockout. I'm taking Santos to win, probably by KO.

Paul picks Arce but has a bad feeling about it. He notes Arce's skill set as a former golden glove boxer and BJJ black belt, but worries about his chin after being knocked out by Song. Paul thinks Santos is dangerous with spinning attacks but is hittable and lacks defense. He expects Arce to win on skill but acknowledges Santos could clip him.

Angelo picks Song Yadong, citing his power and speed advantage. He acknowledges that Arce is more technical but thinks Song's volume and power will be frustrating. Angelo considers this a close fight and is surprised by the odds.

Big Brady slightly edges Song Yadong, citing his youth (23), power, and improvement at Team Alpha Male. He expects a striking fight with no takedowns, and while Arce is talented, Brady thinks Yadong will land the harder shots and win a close decision. He admits it's a very competitive fight and not confident.

Cody is concerned about Arce's lower volume compared to Yadong. He thinks Yadong throws a lot of strikes and Arce needs to stay at range. He calls it a close fight and a 'dog or pass' situation, but leans slightly to Arce.

Daniel Levi picks Song Yadong, emphasizing his power as one of the hardest hitters in the bantamweight division. He believes Song's impactful shots will sway the judges even if he lands slightly less than Arce. Levi notes that Arce has better defense but Song's forward pressure and power will be the deciding factor in a close fight. He also mentions Song's ability to get back up if taken down.

Jacob picks Julio Arce, liking his power and technical boxing. He thinks Arce can land big counters and possibly knock Song out. Jacob notes that Song gets hit and that Arce has the ability to steal rounds with grappling if needed.

Paul likes Arce as a smooth operator who looked career-best after elbow surgery. He thinks Arce's kickboxing and BJJ are solid, and that Yadong slows down in fights. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and takes the underdog.

Angelo picks Julio Arce because he is a high-volume striker with good striking defense and movement, and he mixes his boxing and kicks well. He notes that Andre Ewell has cardio issues due to his size and can't grapple. He expects Arce to win by decision after a potential slow first round due to his two-year layoff. He likes the 3.5 round prop on Ewell (buying a round) because Ewell might win the first round when fresh, then fade. He also likes the more/more on monkey knife fight.

Big Brady picks Julio Arce by decision, noting Arce's superior competition and cardio advantage. He expects the fight to be competitive early but Arce will take over in the third round as Ewell slows down. He highlights Arce's positive striking differential and Ewell's tendency to fade. He thinks the line (-190) is a bit wide but still favors Arce.

Cody picks Arce, citing his slick boxing and good grappling. He thinks the move down to 135 is good for him. He notes Arce has been off due to surgeries but expects him to land the more impactful strikes. He likes Arce's chances as long as the weight cut works out.

Daniel Levi picks Andre Ewell as a plus-180 dog, believing the line is off. He notes that Ewell is long for the weight class with a 75-inch reach, and that Arce tends to fight close. Levi expects a three-round stand-up war with both having moments, and predicts Ewell via split decision. He acknowledges Arce's better technical skills but thinks Ewell can make it close.

Jacob picks Julio Arce because he is a Golden Gloves boxing champion coming down to bantamweight, so Andre Ewell won't have the usual size advantage. He notes that Arce has never been KO'd and has good head movement. He thinks Arce will have no issues with Ewell and has him in his DraftKings lineup.

The host picks Julio Arce, noting his striking and grappling advantage, as well as his cardio edge. He expects Arce to pressure Ewell, who tends to fade in later rounds. He mentions Arce's layoff and ring rust concerns but believes his overall skills will prevail. He likes Arce by decision at +125 and also mentions a potential round three finish.

Paul also picks Arce, noting his superior boxing, southpaw stance, and overall skills. He warns about Ewell's reach and tendency to make fights close, but thinks Arce's wrestling and jiu-jitsu give him an edge. He is concerned about the layoff and surgeries but still picks Arce.