Mark Madsen

Angelo leans Gordon, reasoning that Gordon's striking is better and he can outwrestle Madsen by implementing his own game plan. He notes Madsen is one-dimensional and older, and Gordon trains with good wrestlers. He is not fully confident due to Gordon's age.

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon by decision. He thinks Gordon has a significant striking advantage, with fast hands and high volume, and better cardio. He notes Madsen is 39 and may need to resort to wrestling, but Gordon has solid takedown defense and get-up game. Brady worries about Gordon's chin but doesn't think Madsen can knock him out.

Cody picks Gordon but is hesitant, suggesting a live bet might be better. He thinks Madsen will win the first round with wrestling but gas out, allowing Gordon to take over. He notes Gordon's durability and pace, but doesn't like the pre-fight line.

Gordon's pace, pressure, and ability to dictate the fight will be the difference. Madsen may have early grappling success, but Gordon's BJJ background will allow him to get back to his feet and overwhelm Madsen with better striking. Expects a close fight early but Gordon to put together a better body of work in the last two rounds and win by decision.

Paul leans Madsen as a dog, having taken him at +167. He thinks Madsen's wrestling pedigree will allow him to get takedowns and control early rounds. He acknowledges Madsen's cardio issues but believes he can win the first two rounds. He notes Gordon isn't a potent finisher.

Angelo picks Dawson, citing his better overall striking and wrestling. He notes Madsen is an Olympic wrestler but doesn't always use it, and Dawson has takedowns in every fight. He thinks the extra week of preparation helps Dawson. He does not bet the moneyline but considers a prop on Madsen +3.5.

Big Brady believes the line is off and Madsen is being disrespected. He highlights Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling, improved striking, and cardio, while Dawson is hittable and coming in on short notice. He expects Madsen to keep the fight on the feet, stuff takedowns, and out-strike Dawson to win a decision.

Cody picks Mark Madsen as an underdog, but is on the fence. He notes that Dawson has struggled against strong grapplers, like Leo Santos (close fight) and Ricky Glenn (gassed and got a 10-8 round). Madsen has superior wrestling and could be the one getting takedowns and grinding on Dawson. Cody points out that Madsen's fight against Vince Pichel was close, and he thinks Madsen could win a tight decision by mixing in takedowns and using his jab and leg kicks, as he did against Clay Guida. He sees this as a dog or pass spot.

Daniel Levi picks Mark Madsen as an underdog, citing his top control and ability to neutralize Grant Dawson's guard pulls. He notes Dawson's suspect gas tank in later rounds, as seen in the Rick Glenn fight, and believes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling and slightly better striking pop can secure a win. He is not super convicted but likes the dog odds.

The host favors Dawson due to youth, athleticism, and superior grappling. He notes Madsen's improved striking but believes Dawson's wrestling and BJJ will be too much. He expects Dawson to mix output on the feet with grappling, potentially getting a late finish or decision. He sees Dawson as parlay material at -230.

Paul is also on the fence but picks Madsen for the show. He argues that Madsen could be live because MMA judging often rewards control time, as seen in the Pichel fight where Madsen got the decision despite being outstruck. In the Apex, Madsen can lay on top and tick away the clock. He thinks Dawson should win, but Madsen's style could lead to a close decision. Paul considers it a dog or pass spot.

Angelo picks Mark Madsen despite being surprised that Pichel is the favorite. He notes Madsen's Olympic wrestling background and improved striking, as shown in his win over Clay Guida. He expects Madsen to use takedowns similar to Gregor Gillespie's approach, though he acknowledges Pichel's movement could trouble Madsen on the feet.

Big Brady picks Mark Madsen to win a close decision, likely split. He notes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling should dominate early rounds, but his cardio is a concern as he faded in the third round against Austin Hubbard. Pichel has terrible takedown defense (25%) but is tough and wins the third round. Brady thinks Madsen edges the second round to win.

Cody is on the same page as Paul, picking Pichel. He notes Madsen's wrestling is explosive but lacks top control, leading to gassing. Cody points out Madsen's susceptibility to leg kicks and Pichel's nasty low kick. He thinks Pichel's chaos and pressure will break Madsen, similar to how he broke Austin Hubbard. Cody expects Pichel to win, possibly by decision but hopes for a third-round finish.

Levi believes Mark Madsen is improving with each fight, showing better cardio and striking. He notes Vinc Pichel's takedown defense is not great and that Madsen's wrestling should be a big advantage. He thinks the fight should be a pick'em, so at plus money he is taking Madsen to win a decision by securing the first two rounds.

I think Pichel is the much better striker and has improving wrestling. Madsen needs to get an early finish or he will fade. Pichel has a good gas tank and will wear on Madsen. I see Pichel finding a knockout later in the fight, likely in the third round.

Paul is confident in Pichel, having already bet him at -122 and -127. He notes Madsen's poor cardio and inability to hold opponents down, as seen against Clay Guida. Paul emphasizes Pichel's leg kicks targeting Madsen's lead leg, which Madsen leaves exposed. He predicts Pichel wins by TKO in round 3, as Madsen fades. Paul also likes Pichel round 3 at +1600.

Big Brady picks Mark Madsen, but is concerned about his gas tank. He notes Madsen has slowed down in previous fights, while Guida has endless cardio. However, he believes Madsen's wrestling is elite and he can get a finish early. He predicts a first-round submission.

Cody picks Madsen but with hesitation due to red flags: Madsen's broken jaw, infection, wife's MS, layoff, and cardio issues. He notes Madsen's elite wrestling but poor striking and potential to gas. He thinks Madsen's wrestling is enough to beat a 38-year-old Guida, but warns of submission danger from Guida's neck exposure.

Madsen has cardio issues and has never faced a pace like Guida's. Guida's work rate and scrambling will be too much for Madsen in the later rounds. If Madsen doesn't get an early submission, Guida takes over. I'm picking Guida by decision, and he's a great live bet after round one.

Paul picks Madsen, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and training with Henry Cejudo at Fight Ready. He acknowledges Guida's cardio and durability but believes Madsen can turn it into a wrestling match and win. He notes Guida's tendency to leave his neck exposed, making a submission possible.

Daniel slightly leans Madsen, acknowledging his wrestling advantage and Olympic credentials. However, he notes that Madsen hasn't been truly challenged and that Hubbard has earned his way with legitimate wins. He thinks Madsen will win a close decision but from a betting perspective it's a pass.

Hubbard has decent wrestling to neutralize Madsen's Olympic-level takedowns. He has better striking and kicks, and his cardio should hold up. Madsen's gas tank is a question after 7.5 minutes. Hubbard can win by decision or late finish. The host likes the value at +190 and may bet 0.75 units.