UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum

Big Brady picks Jared Cannonier, citing his reach advantage, power, and striking accuracy. He notes Cannonier is in his prime at 37, while Gastelum seems to be declining. He believes Cannonier's leg kicks and size will be key, and he predicts a third-round knockout, giving Gastelum his first KO loss.

Cody picks Gastelum as a dog, citing his cardio, five-round experience, and wrestling advantage. He notes Cannonier's low volume, hesitancy, and questionable cardio in longer fights, and points out Gastelum has never been knocked out. He suggests betting live after Gastelum loses early rounds.

Gastelum is the better all-around fighter with five-round experience and cardio advantage. Cannonier has knockout power but has never been stopped, and his cardio is unproven in later rounds. I think Gastelum weathers the early storm and takes over in rounds 3-5, winning by decision or late finish.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Gastelum at plus money. He emphasizes Gastelum's durability (never knocked out) and Cannonier's potential gas tank issues in later rounds. He also mentions the possibility of betting Gastelum live if he loses early rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier to win by TKO, focusing on leg kicks. He notes Cannonier's vicious leg kicks (as seen against Whittaker and Silva) and Gastelum's heavy lead leg and lack of leg support. He predicts Cannonier will chop down Gastelum's legs, then catch him with a straight right as Gastelum lunges. He also mentions Gastelum's quick turnaround and accumulated damage.

Big Brady picks Mark Madsen, but is concerned about his gas tank. He notes Madsen has slowed down in previous fights, while Guida has endless cardio. However, he believes Madsen's wrestling is elite and he can get a finish early. He predicts a first-round submission.

Cody picks Madsen but with hesitation due to red flags: Madsen's broken jaw, infection, wife's MS, layoff, and cardio issues. He notes Madsen's elite wrestling but poor striking and potential to gas. He thinks Madsen's wrestling is enough to beat a 38-year-old Guida, but warns of submission danger from Guida's neck exposure.

Madsen has cardio issues and has never faced a pace like Guida's. Guida's work rate and scrambling will be too much for Madsen in the later rounds. If Madsen doesn't get an early submission, Guida takes over. I'm picking Guida by decision, and he's a great live bet after round one.

Paul picks Madsen, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and training with Henry Cejudo at Fight Ready. He acknowledges Guida's cardio and durability but believes Madsen can turn it into a wrestling match and win. He notes Guida's tendency to leave his neck exposed, making a submission possible.

The MMA Guru picks Mark Madsen to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Madsen to win the first two rounds with wrestling and grappling, then Guida to rally in the third but fall short. He notes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling and size advantage, but questions his cardio.

Big Brady picks Chase Sherman confidently, citing his better competition, toughness, and power. He notes Porter is very hittable and has been finished in all his losses. Sherman has a 93% finish rate, all by knockout. He predicts a second-round knockout.

Cody picks Sherman, citing his athleticism, leg kicks, and volume. He notes Sherman's improved game since his first UFC stint and believes he has a clear advantage. He mentions Sherman's back issues and past PED suspension but still favors him.

Porter has good durability, leg kicks, and clinch work. Sherman's volume drops in later rounds, while Porter maintains his pace. If Porter survives the first round, he can take over. I'm picking Porter by decision, but I'm hesitant as some respected people are on Sherman.

Paul leans toward Porter as a live underdog, highlighting his durability, leg kicks, and pressure. He questions Sherman's cardio and mental toughness, noting Sherman looked defeated against Arlovski. He sees Porter's ability to push pace and land leg kicks as key, but worries about Porter's weight cut and shape.

The MMA Guru picks Chase Sherman to win by TKO. He notes Sherman is bigger, has good cardio, and a reach advantage. He expects Sherman to use elbows against the cage on the shorter Porter. He acknowledges Porter's win over Josh Parisian but considers it unimpressive.

Cody picks Jones, expecting him to be a favorite. He praises Jones' durability, BJJ black belt, and knockout power, noting his comeback wins. He thinks Kakhramonov's wrestling won't be effective and that Jones will capitalize as the fight goes on.

Kakhramonov is a solid replacement with power and a judo background, but he can be wild. Jones has knockout power and decent BJJ. I think Jones catches him and knocks him out, but I'm wary of the unknowns. The under 2.5 rounds is a good play as I expect a finish from either side.

Paul leans toward Kakhramonov as a big underdog, noting his solid performance against Umar Nurmagomedov and potential holes in Jones' game. He expects Kakhramonov to be a sizable dog and would be drawn to that side, but acknowledges the short notice and weight cut concerns.

The MMA Guru picks Trevin Jones to win by KO. He praises Jones' toughness and power, noting his ability to find one-shot knockouts. He expects Kakhramonov to be overaggressive on short notice, and Jones will crack him with a check hook or similar shot in the first round.

Big Brady picks Vinc Pichel, citing his grappling advantage. He notes Pichel averages 3.83 takedowns per 15 minutes with 60% accuracy, and believes he will win the grappling exchanges. He is concerned about Pichel's age (38) but thinks his gas tank is fine. He predicts a decision win.

Cody picks Pichel, having already bet him. He highlights Pichel's cardio, top control, and BJJ black belt, and notes Hubbard's tendency to fade in later rounds. He believes Pichel's wrestling and pressure will be key, and mentions the value on Pichel by submission at 20-1.

Pichel is a grappler who should have success taking Hubbard down, especially by catching Hubbard's kicks. Hubbard has only fought grapplers recently and has struggled. Pichel's age (38) is a concern but he has low fight mileage. I'm picking Pichel by decision, but the moneyline at even odds is fine.

Paul picks Pichel, citing his strong top game and ability to grind out wins. He notes Pichel's slow starts but finishing strong, and Hubbard's susceptibility to takedowns. He mentions Pichel's training at Factory X and believes his cardio will hold up.

The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard as an underdog. He cites Hubbard's takedown defense and volume striking as keys. He notes Pichel is 38 and coming off a year layoff, while Hubbard is younger and has shown improvement. He expects Hubbard to win the later rounds via decision, possibly 29-28.

Big Brady picks Brandon Royval after initially leaning towards Pantoja. He switched after noticing Pantoja's gas tank issues, as he slows down in the third round. He believes Royval's unorthodox style and size advantage can make it competitive, and he can take over in the third round. He predicts a split decision win for Royval.

Cody picks Pantoja, citing his well-rounded game, BJJ black belt, and experience against top competition. He questions Royval's cardio and durability, noting Royval gassed against Moreno. He believes Pantoja can grind out a win if it goes the distance.

Royval thrives in chaos and will push a pace that may expose Pantoja's cardio issues. Pantoja is the more skilled fighter, but Royval's wild style can lead to finishes. I'm leaning Royval by TKO or submission in the second or third round, and I like the under 2.5 rounds.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Pantoja. He notes Royval's flashy style but questions his ability to finish Pantoja early. He believes Pantoja's durability and grappling will be too much for Royval over three rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Alexandre Pantoja to win by first-round submission (rear-naked choke). He notes Pantoja's power, experience, and ability to finish. He expects Royval's wild style to leave him open, and Pantoja will hurt him with a punch then sink in a choke. He also mentions Pantoja's reach advantage for his height and his wins over Brandon Moreno.

Big Brady picks Austin Lingo as a dog, but with low confidence. He likes Lingo's pressure and power, and notes both fighters are finishers. He thinks the fight will end in a knockout and picks Lingo to close the distance and land a hard shot. He also mentions the under 2.5 rounds as a solid bet.

Cody leans toward Saldaña, citing his flashy striking, mobility, and ability to stay at range. He notes Lingo's power but questions his cardio and experience in longer fights. He expects a close decision and sees value on Saldaña.

Saldana is a great striker with good combinations and kicks, and he can fight off his back foot. Lingo has knockout power but tends to follow opponents rather than cut off the cage, which plays into Saldana's matador style. I think Saldana cruises to a decision unless Lingo lands a clean shot early.

Paul picks Saldaña, highlighting his kick-heavy range game and ability to matador Lingo. He notes Lingo's tendency to load up and tire, and believes Saldaña can maintain distance and outpoint him. He expects the fight to go the distance.

The MMA Guru picks Austin Lingo as an underdog. He sees red flags in Saldaña's game, especially poor takedown defense and losses to lower-level opponents. Lingo is well-rounded with good cardio, grappling, and a good chin. He believes Lingo can exploit Saldaña's holes and get an upset win.

Big Brady picks Brian Kelleher, citing a massive gap in level of competition. He notes Kelleher has fought and lost to top bantamweights, while Pilarte has been dominated by lower-level fighters. He believes Kelleher is the better striker and grappler, despite Pilarte's reach advantage. He predicts a third-round knockout.

Cody picks Kelleher, expecting him to win inside the distance. He notes Kelleher's guillotine threat but worries about the reach disadvantage and weight cut. He believes Kelleher's superior striking and wrestling will be enough.

Kelleher is the much better striker with good volume and leg kicks. Pilarte has rudimentary striking, poor cardio, and has been close to being finished in recent fights. Kelleher's guillotine threat will deter takedowns. I'm picking Kelleher inside the distance, likely by knockout in the second round.

Paul picks Kelleher, citing his durability and better striking and wrestling. He notes Pilarte's weight cut issues and long layoff, and believes Kelleher can avoid Pilarte's submissions. However, he is not fully confident due to Kelleher's weight cut complaints.

The MMA Guru picks Brian Kelleher to win by guillotine choke in the first round. He criticizes Pilarte as a weight bully with a weak chin and poor cardio. He expects Kelleher to rock Pilarte with hooks, then catch him in a guillotine when Pilarte shoots for a single leg. He emphasizes Kelleher's toughness and finishing ability.

Big Brady picks Bea Malecki, citing a massive size advantage (7 inches height and reach). He notes Malecki has fought better competition and has a solid ground game, while Nunes is very small for the division with poor takedown defense. He believes the size will be the key factor and predicts a decision win.

Cody picks Malecki, citing her size, reach, and Muay Thai background. He notes Nunes' lack of grappling and believes Malecki can keep the fight standing and land strikes at range. He acknowledges Malecki's cardio issues but thinks she will be too big.

Malecki has advantages in striking, size, and strength. Nunes is flat-footed and relies on opponents gassing, but Malecki has a solid gas tank. I think Malecki can finish Nunes, especially in the clinch with knees. I'm picking Malecki inside the distance, and the under 2.5 rounds is a good spot.

Paul leans toward Nunes as a dog, noting her toughness and pressure. He questions Malecki's takedown defense and overall MMA game, but admits the size difference is a major concern. He ultimately suggests passing on the fight.

The MMA Guru picks Bea Malecki due to her massive size advantage. He notes Malecki is 5'9" with 74-inch reach, while Nunes is 5'2". Malecki has power and grappling, and will be about 15 pounds heavier. He acknowledges Nunes has KO power but believes Malecki's size will be decisive.

Big Brady picks William Knight but with very low confidence. He thinks Knight is the better striker and the fight will likely play out on the feet, but he is not high on either fighter. He notes Cherant has poor takedown defense but doesn't shoot for takedowns often. He predicts a decision win for Knight.

Cody leans toward Knight, citing his wrestling advantage and ability to grind out wins. He notes Knight's poor striking but believes he can take Cherant down. He acknowledges Cherant's potential but thinks Knight's experience gives him the edge.

Both fighters have limited skill sets, but Cherant has a decent submission game and I lean towards him on the feet. Knight's gas tank looked poor last time, and this fight likely goes to a decision. I prefer the over 1.5 rounds and Cherant's plus money, but I'm not confident enough to make him my dog play.

Paul leans toward Cherant as a dog, noting Knight's poor striking and limited offense. He believes Cherant's footwork and striking could outpoint Knight if he avoids takedowns. He sees value in Cherant at plus money.

The MMA Guru picks William Knight to win by TKO in the second round. He thinks Knight is faster, stronger, and more experienced against better competition. He expects both to be explosive early, but Knight will maintain pace longer and finish Cherant in the late second round as Cherant tires.

Big Brady picks Roosevelt Roberts, citing a significant grappling advantage. He notes Roberts is a much better grappler with a brown belt in BJJ, while Bahamondes has no submissions and is very hittable. He believes if Roberts gets the fight to the mat, he will submit Bahamondes. He predicts a second-round submission.

Cody picks Bahamondes as a dog, citing his size, volume striking, and durability. He notes Roberts' low output and takedown defense issues, and believes Bahamondes can outwork him. He also likes the under on rounds.

Roberts is a buy-low spot after two losses where he was a huge favorite; he has talent and can fulfill his potential. Bahamondes struggled with distance in his UFC debut and has submission losses. Roberts has good boxing and can mix in takedowns, and I think he covers this line. I'm picking Roberts by decision, but a submission is possible.

Paul leans toward Bahamondes, noting his size and striking output. He questions Roberts' ability to get takedowns and believes Bahamondes' volume could overwhelm him. He also mentions the under 2.5 rounds as a potential play.

The MMA Guru picks Roosevelt Roberts over Ignacio Bahamondes. He believes Bahamondes is overrated due to size and reach advantages, and that Roberts is more fundamentally sound. He cites Bahamondes' loss to John McDeasy where McDeasy won with a jab, indicating range-finding issues. Roberts has good grappling and takedown defense. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Roberts.

Big Brady picks Brahimaj but with hesitation due to his UFC debut where he attempted zero takedowns despite being a great grappler. He notes Brahimaj has finished all his wins by submission and believes if he implements his wrestling, he can submit Palatnikov. However, he is not confident enough to bet because of the debut performance. He predicts a first-round submission.

Cody picks Brahimaj, having already bet him. He notes Brahimaj's grappling credentials and believes he can get the fight to the ground. He acknowledges Brahimaj's poor striking but thinks his cardio and submission threat will be enough.

Brahimaj is a wizard on the ground with a strong submission game, and Palatnikov's takedown defense is questionable. However, Brahimaj's cardio is a concern; if he doesn't get a submission in the first two rounds, Palatnikov could take over in the third. I'm picking Brahimaj by submission in the first or second round, and I like the under 2.5 rounds as a bet.

Paul picks Palatnikov as a dog, citing his striking, body work, and cardio. He questions Brahimaj's ability to get takedowns and believes Palatnikov can keep the fight standing and outpoint him. He notes Palatnikov's training at Extreme Couture.

The MMA Guru picks Sasha Palatnikov over Ramiz Brahimaj. He notes that Brahimaj suffered a bad ear injury loss to Max Griffin and hasn't shown enough ground game. Palatnikov is bigger, better on the feet, has better cardio, and decent ground game despite a submission loss. He predicts Palatnikov wins by 30-27 unanimous decision.