UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira

Angelo picks Pereira after flipping from Procházka. He acknowledges Procházka's ability to win ugly fights but believes Pereira's world-class kickboxing and left hook will be too much for the hittable Procházka. He falls into the 'easy narrative' but thinks it's correct.

Big Brady picks Alex Pereira to win by first-round knockout. He criticizes Procházka's non-existent striking defense, noting he blocks punches with his face and has been rocked by lesser hitters. He believes Pereira's left hook will be too much for Procházka to handle. Brady acknowledges Procházka's toughness but thinks Pereira's power is a different level.

Cody picks Pereira, citing Procházka's long layoff and shoulder surgery as major concerns. He notes Procházka is a defensive liability who gets hit often, while Pereira is more polished and has been improving under Glover Teixeira. He believes Pereira's kickboxing pedigree and second fight at 205 will be key, though he acknowledges Procházka's power and volume could cause problems.

James passes on this fight entirely, calling it a massive pass due to extreme volatility. He notes both fighters have knockout power and questionable chins, and Procházka brings unorthodox strikes that Pereira hasn't faced. He leans slightly toward Pereira based on technical striking but admits he doesn't know and considers it 50/50. He mentions Procházka may have better recovery and durability.

Pereira's disciplined technical striking will be the difference against the wild and reckless Procházka. He will stuff takedowns and keep the fight on the feet. Procházka's power is a concern but Pereira's check left hook is nasty. Expects Pereira to open up a knockout victory and become the light heavyweight champion.

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Pereira's first move up to 205 was tough but now he's had time to fill out his frame. He thinks Pereira's grappling under Glover is improving and that the takedown threat from Procházka is minimal. He sees Pereira's precision striking as the difference, eventually clipping Procházka.

The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira, citing his takedown defense and momentum. He notes that Procházka drops his right hand when striking, leaving him open to Pereira's left hook. He also mentions that Procházka has been wobbled in every fight and has been out for a year and a half with injury. He predicts Pereira will TKO Procházka in round one or two.

Angelo picks Aspinall, citing his well-roundedness and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Pavlovich has insane power but is untested in later rounds and against takedowns. He thinks Aspinall's wrestling and BJJ will be the difference, but he is not betting due to the even odds and volatility.

Big Brady slightly leans Tom Aspinall, citing his multiple paths to victory. He notes Aspinall has a significant advantage on the ground with his BJJ and ground-and-pound, while Pavlovich has shown nothing off his back. However, he acknowledges Pavlovich's terrifying power and that Aspinall must get the fight to the mat. Brady says he probably won't bet the moneyline but might look at a prop.

Cody leans Pavlovich, citing Aspinall's questionable cardio after the first round and his knee injury history. He thinks Pavlovich's power and pressure will be too much, and that Aspinall hasn't proven he can go into deep waters. He notes Pavlovich's training partners praise his cardio, and he believes Pavlovich will land something big and take over.

James picks Tom Aspinall, believing he should be a decent favorite despite the even line. He sees the striking as roughly 50/50, but gives Aspinall 80% of the grappling upside. He notes Pavlovich's takedown defense is untested and Aspinall has athletic takedowns. He acknowledges the short notice for Aspinall but thinks it matters less at heavyweight. He sees Aspinall having more paths to win: decision, submission, or knockout.

Aspinall's speed, agility, and athleticism will be key. He can land a straight right or secure a takedown and dominate from top position. Pavlovich's grappling vulnerability was exposed by Overeem. Aspinall's physicality will allow him to snatch the victory. Expects a finish, calling it round two. Short notice is less of a concern at heavyweight.

Paul is a believer in Pavlovich, having taken him at +135 earlier. He dismisses the Overeem loss as a debut five years ago, noting Pavlovich has improved immensely at Eagles MMA. He thinks Pavlovich's takedown defense and devastating power make him a problem, and that Aspinall's cardio and durability are unproven.

The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall, citing his superior movement and fight IQ. He notes that Pavlovich's opponents have stood still, while Aspinall will use footwork, feints, and takedown threats. He predicts Aspinall will get a takedown and submit Pavlovich in round two, possibly with a rear-naked choke. He also mentions Pavlovich's high activity may lead to accumulated injuries.

Angelo picks Dern, citing her improved striking and elite BJJ. He notes Andrade's takedown defense is poor and Dern can pull guard or climb for submissions. He already bet a full unit on Dern at -177 and is confident she gets it done.

Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern to win by first-round submission. He believes Dern is improving her wrestling and striking, while Andrade is on a decline and doesn't seem to care anymore. He notes Andrade has been easily submitted recently by top grapplers, and Dern is the best grappler in the division. Brady thinks one takedown from Dern will end the fight quickly.

Cody picks Dern, noting Andrade's recent decline and disinterest in fights. He highlights Dern's improvements in striking and wrestling under Henry Cejudo, and her durability. He believes Dern can win on the feet or on the ground, and that Andrade's best path (wrestling) is nullified by Dern's BJJ.

James picks Mackenzie Dern to win, though he is annoyed at the -200 price. He thinks Andrade has stylistic advantages on the feet with more power, but Dern has durability, pace, and grappling to offset that. He believes Dern only needs one takedown to dominate and finish, and Andrade has been finished in her last three losses. He suggests playing Dern inside the distance rather than moneyline.

Andrade's power will be the difference. Dern has never been hit by someone with Andrade's power and will struggle to close distance. Andrade will stuff takedowns and make Dern pay every time she crashes the pocket. Expects Andrade to land big strikes and potentially find a knockout victory in the first or second round. The line at +165 is a value due to recency bias from Dern's win over Hill.

Paul agrees, emphasizing Andrade's regression and Dern's upward trajectory. He notes Andrade has looked flat and disinterested, while Dern is coming into her prime with improved cardio and focus. He thinks Dern wins wherever the fight goes, and that Andrade's wrestling won't be enough.

The MMA Guru picks Mackenzie Dern, believing Andrade is on a losing streak and has lost confidence. He notes Dern's improved grappling and boxing, citing her dominant win over Angela Hill. He predicts Dern will submit Andrade in round two, as Andrade has been vulnerable on her back recently.

Angelo picks Frevola, citing his confidence, win streak, and fighting in New York. He acknowledges Saint Denis is tough but thinks Frevola can sneak out a win. He is watching the line movement and may bet if Frevola becomes a bigger dog.

Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by first-round knockout. He thinks Saint Denis has more avenues to win, including dangerous grappling and power. He worries about Frevola's durability, noting he has been knocked out quickly before. Brady expects a war where Saint Denis lands something big and finishes Frevola.

Cody picks Saint Denis but is hesitant, acknowledging Frevola's skills and the value at +185. He worries about Frevola's chin, noting he's been knocked out by lesser punchers. He thinks Saint Denis has better durability and will win a brawl, but feels like a 'coward' for not taking the dog.

James picks Benoît Saint Denis but is hesitant, noting the line is too wide at -230. He thinks it should be around -140. He believes BSD has more tools on the feet, including body kicks, and has cardio and knockout upside. However, he acknowledges Frevola is live as an underdog, having won three swinging contests in a row, and BSD is hittable and was knocked out by Zaleski. He expects a swinging match and considers the under 1.5 rounds but is not enticed at -150.

Saint Denis will wear on Frevola with his aggressive wrestling and grappling. He will exchange in the pocket to open up takedowns, then take Frevola to the mat and smash him from top position. Expects a finish by TKO or submission in the second or third round. Frevola's durability is a question mark.

Paul picks Saint Denis, citing his durability and toughness from his military background. He thinks Saint Denis can take damage and make the fight ugly, while Frevola has questionable durability. He notes Saint Denis's grappling and strength at 155 will be key.

The MMA Guru picks Matt Frevola as his underdog of the card. He thinks Frevola has nasty power and good wrestling, and that Saint Denis leaves his chin open when swinging against the cage. He predicts Frevola will catch Saint Denis with a left hook, similar to his finishes of Dober and Aitar, and win by KO at the end of round one.

Angelo picks Sabatini, believing his takedowns and BJJ will neutralize Lopes. He criticizes Lopes' takedown defense and striking, and thinks Sabatini will control the fight on the ground. He plans to bet on Sabatini later in the week.

Big Brady picks Diego Lopes as the underdog, predicting a second or third round submission. He likes Lopes' evolving striking, power, and dangerous submission game off his back. He worries about Sabatini's durability on the feet, noting he has been dropped early in fights. Brady thinks Lopes has more ways to win and that Sabatini will have to fight off submissions for 15 minutes.

Cody picks Sabatini, expecting him to get takedowns and control the fight on top. He notes Sabatini's suffocating top game and ability to avoid submissions. He thinks Lopes' guard is dangerous but Sabatini's grappling is good enough to avoid trouble, and he sees value at even money.

James leans Diego Lopes because he believes Lopes has a clear advantage on the feet with more power and a better chin, while Sabatini's wrestling may not be sufficient to consistently control Lopes. He notes that Sabatini has been submitted before and is chinny, and Lopes has submission upside. However, he acknowledges Sabatini could have control time on top, making it a tricky matchup.

Sabatini is the better wrestler and will dictate where the fight takes place. He is a good enough BJJ artist to fend off Lopes' submission attempts. Sabatini will control positions and grind out a decision win. The line at -120 is a good value. Notes that recency bias from Lopes' highlight finishes is inflating his line.

Paul picks Sabatini, emphasizing his wrestling and top control. He notes Lopes has been taken down easily in the past and relies on submissions from guard. He thinks Sabatini's suffocating style will neutralize Lopes' offense and lead to a decision win.

The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes, noting his superior Jiu-Jitsu and comfort on the ground, which neutralizes Sabatini's back-taking game. He also highlights Lopes' striking advantage, size, and reach. He predicts a TKO win for Lopes, referencing his recent performances against Movsar Evloev and Gavin Tucker.

Angelo picks Costa as an underdog, citing Costa's solid striking, tight guard, and real power. He notes Erceg is high volume and hittable, but Costa's power and combination striking could be the difference. He is not betting on this fight yet and may flip later.

Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by knockout in the third round. He notes Erceg is not on short notice, has a size advantage, and his striking has leveled up. He worries about Costa's durability, as Costa has been knocked out twice before and gets hurt often. Brady believes Erceg's power and improved striking will lead to a finish.

Cody picks Erceg, impressed by his debut on short notice against a ranked opponent. He notes Erceg's durability, scrambling, and ability to push a pace. He thinks Costa's low output and reliance on leg kicks won't be enough, and that Erceg has more dog in him.

Costa is the better fighter and the line is close to even, so taking the underdog at +130 is worth a small shot. Costa will be more aggressive and can stay out of danger if Erceg tries to take it to the ground. Expects Costa to control distance in the striking realm, land big shots, and win by decision.

Paul leans Costa as a dog, citing his leg kicks and power. He thinks Erceg's tall frame may be vulnerable to leg kicks, and that Costa's takedown defense is solid. He notes the line movement towards Costa and sees value at plus money, though he's not overly confident.

The MMA Guru picks Steve Erceg, citing his impressive debut win over David Dvorak on short notice and strong regional career. He notes that Alessandro Costa was pieced up by Amir Albazi on the feet, which he sees as a bad sign. He predicts a competitive decision win for Erceg, possibly 29-28, but expresses a slight worry that Erceg might get knocked out due to his build.

Angelo picks Godinez, emphasizing her wrestling and size advantage. He criticizes Ricci's striking and takedowns, believing Godinez can defend takedowns and win on the feet. He is not insanely confident but thinks Godinez gets it done.

Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez by decision. He believes Godinez is the better striker with good volume and power, and also the better wrestler with strong takedown defense. He thinks Godinez can dictate where the fight takes place and win striking exchanges even if she doesn't wrestle. He notes Godinez's past fight IQ issues but doesn't think they'll matter here.

Cody picks Godinez, citing her boxing volume, pressure, and improved ring IQ. He notes she has size and strength advantages, and that Ricci's wrestling likely won't be enough. He thinks Godinez wins on volume and pressure, though he's not confident enough to bet heavily.

Godinez's wrestling background should allow her to keep the fight upright where she has the striking advantage. Ricci will need to take it to the ground to have success, but Godinez can control where the fight takes place. The line has moved from -120/-130 to -170, which makes sense, but he would prefer a better line around -130 to bet. Prediction is Godinez by decision.

Paul agrees, noting Godinez's striking advantage and that Ricci's wrestling will be negated. He thinks Godinez will win on volume, though he acknowledges the New York commission can be unpredictable. He sees Godinez as the rightful favorite.

The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez, citing her advantage in standup and aggression. He thinks Godinez will force a high pace that Ricci is not comfortable with, and notes that Godinez is tough and throws punches like a man. He predicts a decision win for Godinez.

Cody picks Rębecki, calling him a 'finished product' with excellent grappling and power. He thinks Roberts is outclassed everywhere and that Rębecki will maul him. He notes the line is high but believes Rębecki is the goods.

Paul picks Rębecki, comparing him to grinders like Nick Lentz and Jon Fitch. He notes Rębecki's suffocating pressure and technique, and that Roberts is a short-notice replacement with a puncher's chance only. He expects Rębecki to dominate wherever the fight goes.

Angelo picks Borshchev, trusting his striking pressure and ability to defend takedowns. He notes Sadykhov is not a grappler and will likely strike, which favors Borshchev. He acknowledges Sadykhov could win a decision but leans on Borshchev's power and volume.

Big Brady picks Viacheslav Borshchev to win by first-round knockout. He praises Borshchev's incredible striking and notes that opponents constantly try to take him down because they want nothing to do with his striking. He worries that Sadykhov doesn't wrestle enough to exploit Borshchev's poor takedown defense, and that Sadykhov was outstruck by Evan Elder. Brady expects a striking battle and favors Borshchev's power.

Cody leans Borshchev, expecting a striking match where Borshchev's volume and durability give him an edge. He notes Sadykhov hasn't shown wrestling in the UFC, and Borshchev's takedown defense and ability to get up are solid. He's not confident but sees value.

Borshchev is more tested against better competition and his defensive grappling is improving. He should be able to keep the fight in the striking realm where he has a decided advantage. Expects Borshchev to batter Sadykhov and eventually finish him by knockout in the second or third round. Surprised to see Borshchev as the underdog and happy to take a shot on him.

Paul picks Borshchev, citing Sadykhov's lack of wrestling and questionable takedown defense. He thinks Borshchev's striking and cardio will be too much, and that Sadykhov hasn't shown enough to warrant being a favorite. He calls Borshchev a dog play.

The MMA Guru picks Nazim Sadykhov, highlighting his grappling as the X-factor. He notes that Sadykhov showed composure against Terrance McKinney's early danger and that his team knows when to use takedowns. He predicts a late second-round submission, as Borshchev is a great striker but has takedown defense issues.

Angelo leans Gordon, reasoning that Gordon's striking is better and he can outwrestle Madsen by implementing his own game plan. He notes Madsen is one-dimensional and older, and Gordon trains with good wrestlers. He is not fully confident due to Gordon's age.

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon by decision. He thinks Gordon has a significant striking advantage, with fast hands and high volume, and better cardio. He notes Madsen is 39 and may need to resort to wrestling, but Gordon has solid takedown defense and get-up game. Brady worries about Gordon's chin but doesn't think Madsen can knock him out.

Cody picks Gordon but is hesitant, suggesting a live bet might be better. He thinks Madsen will win the first round with wrestling but gas out, allowing Gordon to take over. He notes Gordon's durability and pace, but doesn't like the pre-fight line.

Gordon's pace, pressure, and ability to dictate the fight will be the difference. Madsen may have early grappling success, but Gordon's BJJ background will allow him to get back to his feet and overwhelm Madsen with better striking. Expects a close fight early but Gordon to put together a better body of work in the last two rounds and win by decision.

Paul leans Madsen as a dog, having taken him at +167. He thinks Madsen's wrestling pedigree will allow him to get takedowns and control early rounds. He acknowledges Madsen's cardio issues but believes he can win the first two rounds. He notes Gordon isn't a potent finisher.

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon, calling Mark Madsen awful. He thinks Gordon is underrated and showed improved striking against Bobby Green before the headbutt. He believes Gordon is more versatile and better on the feet, and that Madsen has no offensive grappling or striking threat.

Angelo is very confident in Castañeda, highlighting his forward pressure, wrestling, and pace. He expects Castañeda to break Kang down with takedowns and ride out a decision win. He notes Kang is dangerous but thinks Castañeda's style will overwhelm him.

Big Brady is taking the dog Kyung Ho Kang in what he expects to be a close fight. He likes Kang's improved striking, power, and toughness, noting Kang has never been finished in the UFC. He thinks Castañeda may struggle to keep the fight on the mat and will be out struck. Brady admits he doesn't have a strong read and expects a decision.

Cody leans Castañeda, citing his forward pressure and power. He notes Kang's inconsistency and tendency to not use his wrestling. He thinks Castañeda can make it a scrap and mix in takedowns, but he's on the fence and wants to see weigh-ins.

Castañeda has the striking advantage and grappling chops to put opponents through the ringer. Kong is aging and will struggle with Castañeda's pressure and inability to get the fight to the ground where he could use his BJJ. Expects Castañeda to dictate the pace with crisp boxing combinations and grind out a win by mixing striking and grappling.

Paul picks Castañeda, noting Kang's age (36) and recent close fights. He thinks Castañeda's power and wrestling will be key, and that Kang's best path (wrestling) may not be utilized. He expects Castañeda to make it ugly and get the win.

The MMA Guru picks John Castañeda, disagreeing with the majority who favor Kyung Ho Kang. He believes Kang is not that good, noting that his last win was a flash knockout and that he has never been impressed with Kang's performances. He thinks Castañeda is a better striker and can keep the fight standing, predicting a decision win.

Angelo picks Van, citing his patience, cardio, and grappling advantage. He thinks Van can avoid Borjas' combinations and use takedowns. He avoids betting due to the short odds and Van's youth, but believes Van is the more well-rounded fighter.

Big Brady picks Joshua Van to win by second-round knockout. He is impressed by Van's power for a flyweight and his slick submission game. He notes Borjas is willing to eat one to give one and has been hurt before, which is dangerous against a power puncher like Van. Brady trusts Van's durability and defensive soundness in what he expects to be a war.

Cody picks Van, impressed by his debut win over Zhalgas Zhumagulov on short notice. He notes Van's footwork, timing, and athleticism, and thinks he'll only improve with a full camp. He expects Van to outpoint Borjas with counters and maybe mix in takedowns.

Van has a huge technical striking advantage over Borjas, being too slick and fast on the feet. Even if Borjas tries to take it to the ground, Van has improved takedown defense and submission ability off his back. Borjas has faced poor competition and this is too big a step up. Expects Van to run away with the fight and possibly find a finish later on.

Paul picks Van, noting his impressive performance against Zhumagulov and his cardio. He thinks Van's striking and movement will be too much for Borjas, who is making his UFC debut. He sees Van as a legitimate prospect.

The MMA Guru picks Joshua Van, impressed by his debut win over Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He notes Van's composed striking, good jab, low kicks, and Muay Thai style. He thinks Van is better than Kevin Borjas and will win with his striking technique.

Angelo leans Emmers despite acknowledging Buzukja's potential. He cites Emmers' finishing ability and power, but worries about Emmers' bad luck with judges. He plans to avoid betting on the moneyline and may bet on Buzukja's takedown props.

Big Brady picks Jamall Emmers by decision, but expresses low trust at the price. He believes Emmers is better everywhere except fight IQ and heart: better striker, better wrestler, better grappler. He notes Emmers has a history of losing fights he should win due to bad game plans. He thinks Buzukja's game plan of pushing opponents to the cage and attempting takedowns won't work against Emmers.

Cody picks Emmers, citing Buzukja's poor performances and lack of UFC-level skills. He notes Emmers' wrestling, size, and experience. He thinks Emmers will dominate wherever the fight goes and calls him a good parlay piece.

Emmers has all the skill set advantages over Buzukja except fight IQ. If he utilizes his grappling, it will be the path of least resistance. Expects Emmers to outwork Buzukja over 15 minutes and win by decision, but cautions about fight IQ. Notes the line has moved from -275 to -250 and believes it's generous for Emmers.

Paul picks Emmers, detailing Buzukja's struggles and management's careful matchmaking. He notes Emmers' wrestling and submission game, and thinks Buzukja's poor takedown defense and cardio will be exploited. He expects Emmers to win comfortably.

The MMA Guru picks Jamall Emmers, calling him underrated. He notes that Emmers took Giga Chikadze to a split decision and had a close fight with Jack Jenkins. He thinks Emmers has matured as a veteran and will beat Buzukja if he stays composed, predicting a win 8 times out of 10.