UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero

Daniel believes Adesanya's volume and distance management will be too much for Romero. He thinks Adesanya will pick Romero apart with kicks and win a lopsided decision, though he acknowledges Romero is always live for a knockout. He notes that Romero doesn't do well in fights that go the distance and that Adesanya's takedown defense and get-up game are underrated.

Adesanya's distance management, kicking, and ability to read opponents are key. He will target Romero's body to drain his cardio, then mix in head strikes. Adesanya's takedown defense is excellent; he gets back up quickly. A fourth-round TKO is likely, but a decision is also possible. The host considered a parlay with Jamall Emmers.

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya, citing his striking level, reach advantage (7 inches), and ability to get up from takedowns. He notes Romero's recent close losses and age (42), and believes Adesanya will pick him apart with front kicks and knees, eventually finishing him in the third or fourth round by TKO. He also mentions Romero's tendency to leave himself open to uppercuts.

Daniel picks Zhang Weili to retain her title, citing her power and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Joanna has been dropped multiple times in her career and has a suspect chin. He believes Zhang can win a decision by landing harder shots and using body locks and trips, which have worked against Joanna in the past.

Weili has heavy hands and good ground game; she is stronger than Joanna. She can mix in takedowns to make Joanna hesitant. If Weili hurts Joanna early and often, she can finish, likely in the third or fourth round. However, if it goes 25 minutes, Joanna's volume could win rounds. Weili's power and strength are key advantages.

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili, citing concerns about Joanna's weight cut and the damage she has taken in recent fights (e.g., against Michelle Waterson, Rose Namajunas). He believes Zhang has more power and confidence, and will finish Joanna by TKO in the first or second round.

Daniel slightly favors Dariush as the favorite, acknowledging his superior skills in every aspect but concerned about his cardio. He notes that if Dariush paces himself well, he should outclass Klose, but if he slows down in the later rounds, Klose's pressure could break him. He understands the dog shot on Klose for that reason.

Dariush has a massive grappling advantage; every opponent has taken Klose down. Dariush's jiu-jitsu is next level, and Klose gives up his back. Dariush's striking has improved, and he can land knees in the clinch. The host is very confident, planning 4-5 units on Dariush straight, and likes the submission prop at +295.

The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush, noting his four-fight win streak including a KO of James Vick. He acknowledges Drakkar Klose is on a mission but feels Klose gets rocked too often and Dariush has the experience to put him away. He predicts a submission win in the second or third round.

Daniel is confident Li Jingliang will dominate Neil Magny, citing Magny's decline and inability to handle pressure and low kicks. He notes that Magny has been blown out by relevant opponents and that his last significant win was half a decade ago. He believes Li will chop Magny down with low kicks and close the distance to hurt him, winning a decision or getting a knockout.

Magny has a huge reach advantage (80 vs 72 inches) and excellent cardio. He will use his jab, kicks, and occasional takedowns to outpoint Li. Li is powerful but lacks pressure; Magny's veteran savvy should carry him to a decision. The host considered betting Li but sees too many X-factors. He likes Magny at plus money and may bet 0.75 units if odds reach +175.

The MMA Guru picks Li Jingliang, citing his recent activity, momentum, and youth advantage over Neil Magny, who hasn't fought since a KO loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio in 2018. He notes Li's win over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos was impressive and expects Li to finish Magny in the second or third round.

Daniel picks Alex Oliveira to win by TKO in the first round, believing this is a step down in competition for Oliveira. He thinks Griffin is basic, slow, flat-footed, and gasses out, while Oliveira is a monster in the clinch and stand-up. He acknowledges Oliveira's susceptibility to submissions but doesn't think Griffin is capable of exploiting that.

Oliveira has better striking and power; he can hurt Griffin early and finish. However, if he blows his wad like against Mike Perry, Griffin's wrestling and cardio could take over. Griffin has shown ability to wrestle and grind. The host was considering betting Griffin but changed his mind after watching tape. He picks Oliveira by second-round TKO but is not confident enough to bet.

The MMA Guru initially leans toward Alex Oliveira but changes his pick to Max Griffin. He expects Oliveira to have early success, possibly dropping Griffin, but Griffin will come back and grind out a decision win by controlling the last two rounds on the ground. He notes both fighters are scrappers and this is a 50/50 fight.

Daniel picks Sean O'Malley to win, likely by knockout, citing his superior striking and power. He notes that Quiñónez has a suspect chin and has been wobbled in fights he should have dominated. He believes O'Malley's feints, movement, and power will be too much, and he predicts a one-two down the pipe for the finish.

O'Malley has diverse striking and power, but the long layoff and added muscle raise cardio concerns. Quiñónez has more UFC experience, good takedowns, and pressure. O'Malley's head movement is questionable. The host is passing on betting but picks O'Malley by first-round KO, agreeing with guest Josh P that the value is on Quiñónez.

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley, noting his long layoff may have been beneficial as he has been improving his jiu-jitsu. He believes O'Malley's leg kicks will limit Quiñónez's movement, and O'Malley's reach advantage (7.5 cm) will be key. However, he predicts a decision win rather than a finish, as Quiñónez has a good chin and O'Malley is unlikely to submit him.

Daniel slightly leans Madsen, acknowledging his wrestling advantage and Olympic credentials. However, he notes that Madsen hasn't been truly challenged and that Hubbard has earned his way with legitimate wins. He thinks Madsen will win a close decision but from a betting perspective it's a pass.

Hubbard has decent wrestling to neutralize Madsen's Olympic-level takedowns. He has better striking and kicks, and his cardio should hold up. Madsen's gas tank is a question after 7.5 minutes. Hubbard can win by decision or late finish. The host likes the value at +190 and may bet 0.75 units.

The MMA Guru picks Mark Madsen, an Olympic medalist wrestler with a 9-0 record. He believes Madsen will rag doll Austin Hubbard, who is on a two-fight losing streak, and finish him in the first round. He mentions Madsen's age (35) and 'old man anger' as motivating factors.

Daniel is extremely confident in Vieira, predicting a first-round submission. He notes that Vieira is a black belt killer and that once he gets a takedown, the fight will be over shortly. He mentions that Safarov is a dirty fighter but has a messed-up leg and a time limit on how long he can stay live.

Vieira is a BJJ ace who will overpower Safarov and submit him quickly. Safarov has cardio but poor submission defense. However, Vieira's own cardio is suspect; if he doesn't finish early, Safarov could outlast him. The host recommends betting Vieira inside the distance rather than straight moneyline, as the odds are too high for a parlay.

The MMA Guru picks Rodolfo Vieira, a four-time world jiu-jitsu champion with a 6-0 MMA record. He notes Vieira is strong and implements his game well, though he is a bit smaller. He expects Vieira to dominate Safarov, who is 1-2 in the UFC and coming off a win but previously lost two in a row.

Daniel picks Deron Winn to win a decision, citing his power, takedowns, and boxing. He notes that Winn needs to be careful of Meerschaert's submissions and body kicks, especially in later rounds. He believes Winn will come out hard, win the first round, and edge out a 29-28 decision if he doesn't get caught.

Meerschaert has a massive size and reach advantage (77.5 vs 71 inches). Winn's wrestling is his only path, but Meerschaert has submissions from all positions. If Winn doesn't get a first-round KO, Meerschaert will submit him, likely in the third round. The host likes the plus money and plans a 1-unit bet.

The MMA Guru picks Gerald Meerschaert, citing his experience and size advantage over Deron Winn, who he believes is not big enough for middleweight and lacks KO power or wrestling dominance. He notes Meerschaert's recent close fights (loss to Kevin Holland, win over Trevin Giles) could have gone his way, and he expects Meerschaert to use knees up the middle to counter Winn's forward pressure and win by third-round TKO.

Daniel slightly favors Jamall Emmers, citing his experience and wrestling advantage. He notes that Emmers has a suspect chin and has been knocked out before, but if he is smart he will take the fight to the ground. He acknowledges Chikadze's improvements but thinks Emmers' wrestling and size could be the difference.

Emmers has a huge wrestling and grappling advantage. He should take Chikadze down early and grind him out. Chikadze has decent BJJ off his back but Emmers' takedowns are superior. The host is considering a parlay with Adesanya. He likes Emmers straight but wants to see if odds improve.

The MMA Guru picks Jamall Emmers, noting he is a big featherweight in his prime at 30 years old with a 17-4 record. He mentions Emmers' only reason for not being in the UFC earlier was a failed TUF attempt and a head kick KO on Dana White's Contender Series. He believes Emmers will make a statement and win, while his opponent Giga Chikadze is a credited kickboxer but not the biggest or best, having gone to a split decision with Brandon Davis.

Daniel picks Danaa Batgerel to win, but with caution. He notes that Cannetti is explosive in the first round but tends to fade if he faces adversity. He believes Batgerel can take over in the second and third rounds and win a decision, but it's contingent on him not getting badly hurt in the first.

Both fighters are aggressive strikers; Batgerel is more technical, Cannetti is a brawler. The fight likely ends inside the distance. The host prefers betting under 2.5 rounds at plus money rather than picking a side. He picks Cannetti by TKO but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline.

The MMA Guru picks Danaa Batgerel based on his better UFC record (6-2) and youth advantage over the 40-year-old Guido Cannetti. He notes Cannetti is smaller with less reach and questions why he is still fighting at his age. He expects Batgerel to get the job done with his Asian power moves.