Rafael Alves

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Alves. He notes that Alves is a very hard fighter to beat because he puts opponents in hard spots, as seen in his fight with Demir Magomedov. He believes Aliev is too unproven and that this is too much too soon for him. He also criticizes the matchmaking, suggesting Aliev should be fighting someone like Carl Deaton instead.

Big Brady picks Drew Dober to win by second-round knockout. He trusts Dober's durability, cardio, and improved takedown defense. He notes Alves is dangerous on the ground but has not wrestled in his UFC fights. He expects a war with Dober's chin holding up and Alves fading.

Cody picks Dober, noting his excellent chin, durability, and ability to come back from adversity. He acknowledges that Alves is dangerous early with power and opportunistic grappling, but thinks Dober's Muay Thai, precision, and cardio will take over after the first round. He mentions that Dober is a gatekeeper who can handle guys like Alves. He also notes that Alves is a good pick for fantasy because he's a two-to-one underdog with upside.

Daniel bet on Alves at +200, citing his athleticism, explosiveness, and guillotine threat. He notes Alves has outperformed his price tag in both UFC fights, including dropping Damir Ismagulov. He worries about Dober's chin after the Terence McKinney fight and thinks Alves can finish early if he doesn't blow his load. He acknowledges Dober's durability and veteran savvy, but believes Alves' experience (30 pro fights) and power give him the edge. He calls it a high-variance fight but likes the value.

Preet took a half-unit on Alves to win in round one at +650, citing Alves' quick-starting style and Dober's rough weight cut. He notes Alves nearly finished Damir Ismagulov and finished Marty Casey early. He believes Alves will club and sub Dober, capitalizing on Dober's deteriorating durability.

Paul leans Dober but is scared because Alves is dangerous on the ground. He notes that Dober's takedown defense is not great and Alves is opportunistic with submissions. He thinks Dober should win the striking exchanges, but if it goes to the mat, Alves could snatch a submission. He mentions that Alves by submission is a prop to monitor.

Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his leg kicks and body shots to tire out Alves, who has cardio issues. He notes that Alves is dangerous but has no takedowns in the UFC and tends to gas. Angelo believes if Diakiese stays composed and technical, he should win straightforwardly.

Big Brady picks Rafael Alves as an upset, citing Alves' impressive UFC debut against Damir Ismagulov where he showed improved cardio and power. He notes Alves is dangerous everywhere: on the feet with knockout power and on the mat with a black belt in BJJ. Brady expects Alves to hurt Diakiese on the feet, then snatch a submission when Diakiese shoots for a takedown.

Cody believes Diakiese will use his reach and footwork to stay outside and pick apart Alves, who is low-volume and explosive but fades. He notes Alves missed weight badly and is a 'weight bully' who struggles with cardio. He expects Diakiese to win a decision.

Daniel Levi picks Marc Diakiese, citing his speed and athletic advantage. He believes Diakiese can win a decision if he minds his P's and Q's against the experienced Alves. Levi acknowledges Alves's power and guillotine threat but thinks Diakiese's superior athleticism will be the difference.

Jacob is very confident in Marc Diakiese, calling him the real deal and predicting he will dominate. He mentions Diakiese's training with Khamzat Chimaev and his ability to use offensive wrestling if needed. Jacob thinks Alves is being fed to Diakiese as a winnable fight and expects a dominant performance.

Paul thinks Diakiese is the better athlete with better footwork and speed. He notes Alves is low-volume and explosive but fades. He expects Diakiese to stay on the outside and outpoint Alves. He is confident despite Diakiese's poor last performance.

Big Brady confidently picks Ismagulov, calling him two levels above Alves stylistically. He highlights Ismagulov's 100% takedown defense, phenomenal striking defense (69%), and Alves' poor cardio and chin. He expects a knockout finish, noting Alves has been knocked out three times and slows after the first round. He acknowledges the layoff as the only concern.

Cody Saftic picks Damir Ismagulov, praising his technical boxing, takedown defense, and unflappable style. He notes that Ismagulov has beaten tough opponents like Joel Alvarez and Thiago Moises, and that Alves has struggled with weight cuts and has a journeyman record. Saftic believes Ismagulov will win by decision, controlling the fight with his jab and staying out of danger. He suggests a parlay with the over in the Spencer fight.

Daniel Levi picks Damir Ismagulov, praising his smooth, well-rounded striking and discipline. He respects Rafael Alves but notes that Alves missed weight due to personal tragedy and may not be fully focused. He predicts Ismagulov will cruise to a 30-27 decision, though he acknowledges the price is steep and there's no betting value.

Matt picks Damir Ismagulov to win by decision, despite a two-year layoff. He praises Ismagulov's technical striking, combination punching, and takedown defense. He notes Alves has cardio issues and a history of missing weight, which could worsen his gas tank. He expects Ismagulov to keep the fight standing and outpoint Alves over three rounds. He also considers a third-round finish prop at +800 due to Alves' potential fade, but prefers the decision line at -125.

Paul Shaughnessy picks Ismagulov, noting that he looks like a top-10 talent and that Alves is moving up in weight after missing weight badly. He believes Ismagulov's jab and takedown defense will be too much, and that Alves will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He suggests passing on the moneyline due to the price, but likes Ismagulov by decision or in a parlay.