UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez

Angelo picks Max Holloway to win inside the distance, having placed a one-unit bet at +110. He notes that Holloway's technical striking should cut through Rodriguez's theatrical style. Angelo thinks Holloway will close the distance and avoid the spin attacks, and that Rodriguez's two-year layoff is a factor.

Big Brady is confident in Max Holloway, highlighting his insane volume (7.26 significant strikes per minute) and legendary durability (never knocked down). He notes Rodriguez likely needs a KO to win, but Holloway's chin and cardio are elite. Brady expects Holloway to increase volume each round and predicts a fifth-round TKO as damage accumulates.

Cody believes Holloway is a god-tier operator who dominates non-elite opponents. He references Holloway's record 445 significant strikes against Kattar and argues that his losses are only to the best (Volkanovski, Poirier). He expects Holloway to win inside the distance, likely by TKO in the later rounds, and thinks the over 3.5 rounds is a solid play.

Daniel Levi picks Max Holloway, citing his record-breaking output against Calvin Kattar (447 significant strikes landed) and his status as the clear #2 featherweight. He acknowledges Yair Rodríguez's dynamic striking and finishing ability but believes Holloway's volume and pressure will overwhelm Rodríguez as he fatigues. Levi notes that Rodríguez is a live underdog but ultimately trusts Holloway's proven championship level.

Jacob picks Max Holloway to win inside the distance, placing a four-unit bet at +110. He believes there are levels to this and that Holloway will wear on Rodriguez with volume and finish him. Jacob thinks Holloway wants to make a statement as a big favorite.

Paul thinks Max Holloway's volume and durability are unmatched. He notes Holloway's record-breaking strike output and believes Rodríguez can't keep the pace. He's priced out at -720 but still picks Holloway to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.

The Guru picks Max Holloway by third-round TKO (doctor stoppage due to swelling). He expects Rodríguez to have a strong first round with leg kicks and flashy strikes, but Holloway's pressure, body work, and oblique kicks will break Rodríguez down. By the third round, Rodríguez's eye will be swollen shut, forcing a stoppage.

Angelo leans toward Ben Rothwell, reasoning that he only needs one takedown to finish, while de Lima needs 15 minutes of a clean game plan. He acknowledges de Lima's path to victory through stick-and-move but thinks Rothwell's size and durability are key.

Big Brady is confident in Ben Rothwell, citing de Lima's atrocious cardio and tendency to fade after one round. He notes Rothwell has a legendary chin (not knocked out since 2009) and superior takedown defense. Brady expects Rothwell to take over as the fight progresses and predicts a second-round submission, as de Lima has been submitted five times.

Cody emphasizes Rothwell's durability (not finished since 2009) and de Lima's tendency to fade. He points out de Lima's poor takedown defense and submission vulnerability. He expects Rothwell to pressure, take de Lima down, and eventually submit him. He also notes Rothwell's 70% takedown defense and that de Lima gasses quickly.

Daniel Levi picks Ben Rothwell by submission, predicting that de Lima will be faster and more athletic early but will eventually make a mistake and tap to a choke. He references Rothwell's history of opportunistic finishes, including the comeback against Brandon Vera and the gogoplata against Josh Barnett. Levi notes de Lima's tendency to quit when put in a choke, making Rothwell's submission threat a key factor.

Jacob picks Ben Rothwell, believing he will plod forward, make it dirty, and grind out a win. He notes that Rothwell has a granite chin and hasn't been TKO'd since 2009. Jacob thinks de Lima has no way to win except maybe a weird decision.

Paul notes that de Lima is a quitter when things go south and has a pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rothwell is durable, has better submission skills, and will wear de Lima down. He predicts Rothwell wins by submission in round 2, and mentions a prop at 13-1.

The Guru picks Ben Rothwell by unanimous decision (29-28). He expects a close first round with de Lima landing big shots, but Rothwell's pressure and physicality will take over in later rounds. Rothwell will break de Lima down with clinch work and strikes, winning the last two rounds clearly.

Angelo picks Felicia Spencer to win inside the distance, having placed a prop bet at +190. He notes Spencer's strong grappling and top pressure, and that Letson has a three-year layoff and holes on the ground. Angelo expects Spencer to ragdoll Letson and finish via TKO or submission.

Big Brady picks Felicia Spencer but notes she is overrated and the line is too wide. He acknowledges Spencer's ground game is phenomenal (black belt BJJ) but her wrestling to get it there is questionable. He expects Spencer to take down Letson and get a submission, but warns that if she doesn't wrestle, it could be competitive.

Cody agrees with Paul's concerns about Spencer's wrestling. He notes that Letson has a long layoff and a poor resume. He thinks Spencer should win but is not confident enough to bet heavily. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

Daniel Levi picks Felicia Spencer, citing her black belt jiu-jitsu and ability to get takedowns and control on the mat. He notes that Leah Letson has been out for three years and lacks the striking power to hurt Spencer, who has a proven chin against Cyborg and Nunes. Levi expects a submission or ground-and-pound TKO, though he acknowledges the price is steep.

Jacob picks Felicia Spencer to dominate, agreeing with the inside distance bet. He notes that Spencer had good moments against Nunes and that Letson is not on that level. Jacob thinks Spencer will get the takedown and finish.

Paul is worried that Spencer's wrestling is poor and she has a reluctance to grapple, as seen in the Dumont fight where she attempted zero takedowns. He thinks she should dominate on the ground but might make it harder by striking. He still picks Spencer but with low confidence.

The Guru picks Felicia Spencer by first-round TKO via ground and pound. He expects Spencer to take Letson down, advance to mount and back mount, and land heavy shots until the referee stops it. He compares it to a previous finish where a fighter pounded from back mount.

Angelo slightly leans toward Khaos Williams due to his knockout power, but is worried about Baeza's potential grappling. He notes that Williams has no wrestling data in the UFC, making his takedown defense an unknown. Angelo thinks the odds should be flipped and that Williams has the power and speed advantage.

Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza but is hesitant, acknowledging Khaos Williams' power and better chin. He notes Baeza has been hurt in previous fights and questions his chin. However, Brady sees a path for Baeza using his BJJ black belt to exploit Williams' poor takedown defense, mixing in takedowns to win a decision.

Cody believes Baeza will improve after his first loss and has a good game plan: low calf kicks and footwork. He notes Khaos Williams is stationary and heavy on his lead foot, making him vulnerable to leg kicks. He expects Baeza to win by decision or late TKO.

Daniel Levi picks Khaos Williams as the underdog, arguing that Williams has the power advantage and can capitalize on Baeza's tendency to get hit (5 strikes absorbed per minute). He notes that both fighters are hittable but gives Williams the edge in power and believes he can land a fight-changing shot. Levi acknowledges Baeza's calf kicks and black belt but thinks Williams's physicality and pressure will be the difference.

Jacob picks Miguel Baeza, believing he is the cleaner striker and will counter Williams' loaded punches. He notes that Baeza has grappling as a backup and is a jiu-jitsu black belt. Jacob thinks Williams will chase a knockout and get countered, and he loves Baeza in this matchup.

Paul thinks Baeza is a clean striker with volume, but worries about his chin being checked. He notes that Khaos Williams has knockout power but hasn't shown it recently. He leans Baeza but has low confidence.

The Guru picks Miguel Baeza by third-round submission (D'Arce choke). He expects Williams to have early success with power shots, but Baeza's calf kicks and body work will wear Williams down. In the third round, Baeza will sprawl on a takedown and secure the choke.

Angelo picks Song Yadong, citing his power and speed advantage. He acknowledges that Arce is more technical but thinks Song's volume and power will be frustrating. Angelo considers this a close fight and is surprised by the odds.

Big Brady slightly edges Song Yadong, citing his youth (23), power, and improvement at Team Alpha Male. He expects a striking fight with no takedowns, and while Arce is talented, Brady thinks Yadong will land the harder shots and win a close decision. He admits it's a very competitive fight and not confident.

Cody is concerned about Arce's lower volume compared to Yadong. He thinks Yadong throws a lot of strikes and Arce needs to stay at range. He calls it a close fight and a 'dog or pass' situation, but leans slightly to Arce.

Daniel Levi picks Song Yadong, emphasizing his power as one of the hardest hitters in the bantamweight division. He believes Song's impactful shots will sway the judges even if he lands slightly less than Arce. Levi notes that Arce has better defense but Song's forward pressure and power will be the deciding factor in a close fight. He also mentions Song's ability to get back up if taken down.

Jacob picks Julio Arce, liking his power and technical boxing. He thinks Arce can land big counters and possibly knock Song out. Jacob notes that Song gets hit and that Arce has the ability to steal rounds with grappling if needed.

Paul likes Arce as a smooth operator who looked career-best after elbow surgery. He thinks Arce's kickboxing and BJJ are solid, and that Yadong slows down in fights. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and takes the underdog.

The Guru picks Song Yadong by split decision (29-28). He expects a close fight with Yadong's power and speed giving him an edge early, but Arce coming on in the third round. Yadong will win rounds one and two, with Arce taking the third, but Yadong gets the nod on two scorecards.

Angelo picks Andrea Lee, citing her polished striking and comfort on the feet. He notes that Calvillo looks uncomfortable striking and that Lee has improved grappling. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Lee at near even money and thinks she can control the striking exchanges.

Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo but is hesitant, noting Andrea Lee has superior striking volume and accuracy. However, he highlights Lee's poor takedown defense (57%) and that she has been taken down in every UFC fight except one. Brady believes Calvillo can win by wrestling, but recalls her fight against Chookagian where she didn't wrestle enough, causing doubt.

Cody has a gut feeling that Calvillo might lose. He notes that Lee has been working on her wrestling and that Calvillo is 1-2 at 125 lbs. He thinks if Lee can stuff takedowns, she can out-strike Calvillo. He calls it a 'dog or pass' and might take a small shot on Lee.

Daniel Levi picks Cynthia Calvillo, citing her dominant ground game and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Andrea Lee has been taken down multiple times by previous opponents (Roxanne Modafferi, Lauren Murphy, Joanne Calderwood) and believes Calvillo only needs one or two takedowns to win rounds or secure a finish. Levi acknowledges Lee's striking volume but thinks Calvillo's grappling will be the difference.

Jacob picks Cynthia Calvillo, believing she will dominate on the ground. He thinks Calvillo will get in the pocket, take Lee down, and control the fight. Jacob is a big Calvillo fan and thinks the UFC gave her a winnable matchup after her loss to Andrade.

Paul believes Calvillo has a massive wrestling advantage and should spam takedowns. He notes that Andrea Lee gives up takedowns to everyone. He thinks Calvillo can control the fight on the ground and win a decision.

The Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo by unanimous decision (29-27). He expects Andrea Lee to win the first round on the feet, but Calvillo's takedowns and ground control in rounds two and three will secure the win. Calvillo will get a 10-8 in the third due to dominant ground and pound.

Angelo picks Sean Woodson, emphasizing his excellent boxing and eight-inch reach advantage. He notes that Woodson manages range well and has solid takedown defense. Angelo thinks Woodson will win by decision but considers the odds a bit wide.

Big Brady picks Sean Woodson but is hesitant, noting Woodson's takedown defense is good but he was controlled by Terrence McKenney. He questions whether Collin Anglin will wrestle, as Anglin only attempted one takedown against Melsik Baghdasaryan. Even if Anglin gets takedowns, Brady doubts his control and cardio, so he leans Woodson by decision.

Cody is a Woodson fan but admits it's always a sweat. He thinks Woodson's length and boxing should win, but worries about Anglin's wrestling and Woodson's cardio. He advises checking weigh-ins because Woodson has missed weight before. He picks Woodson but won't put him high in parlays.

Daniel Levi picks Sean Woodson, highlighting his massive reach advantage (79 inches) and experience against tougher competition. He believes Woodson's boxing clinic will be too much for Anglin, who was exposed by Melsik Baghdasaryan. Levi notes that Woodson has shown improvement in stuffing takedowns and expects him to keep the fight standing and win decisively.

Jacob picks Sean Woodson, agreeing that his length and range management will be key. He mentions that Woodson fights long and pumps his jab, making it hard for Anglin to close distance. Jacob also notes Anglin's part-time job as a potential distraction.

Paul is not confident at -335. He notes Woodson's reach advantage but worries about his lack of power and potential cardio issues. He thinks Anglin could wrestle and grind out a win. He picks Woodson but won't bet him.

The Guru picks Sean Woodson by first-round TKO via a knee as Anglin shoots a takedown. He describes Woodson defending takedowns, landing knees to the body, and eventually catching Anglin with a knee to the face during a panic takedown, finishing with ground and pound.

Angelo leans toward Cortney Casey due to her higher level of competition and more technical striking. He acknowledges that Jojua has a path to victory through grappling but notes her poor takedown ability. Angelo thinks the odds are a bit wide and considers this a close fight, but picks experience.

Big Brady is confident in Cortney Casey, criticizing Liana Jojua's poor striking defense, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Jojua was dominated by Sarah Morris and Miranda Maverick, and while Casey has a mediocre record, she has faced tougher competition. Brady expects Casey to have a striking advantage and predicts a TKO in the second round as Jojua fades.

Cody is betting against Jojua, not for Casey. He notes Jojua's poor performances and long layoff. He thinks Casey's volume and experience should win, but he's not confident because Casey is 9-9 and hasn't won in two years. He advises caution and checking weigh-ins.

Daniel Levi picks Cortney Casey, noting that Jojua's takedowns are not strong and most of her wins come by armbar off her back, which Casey has not been submitted by. He acknowledges Casey's poor takedown defense but believes she is the tougher fighter and has beaten higher-level competition. Levi says he would never bet Casey at -240 but still picks her to win.

Jacob picks Liana Jojua as his lock of the week, believing she will use offensive wrestling to take Casey down and control her. He notes that Casey has been taken down in recent fights and thinks Jojua's grappling is superior. Jacob is very confident in this pick.

Paul thinks Casey is far more skilled than Jojua, who has poor stand-up and is hittable. He expects Casey to win by volume and experience. He notes Casey's grappling is adequate and Jojua's only path is a submission, which is unlikely.

The Guru picks Cortney Casey by submission (rear-naked choke) in the second round. He expects Casey to out-strike Jojua on the feet, then reverse a takedown attempt and secure the choke. Jojua's nose and eye will be bloodied from Casey's pressure and clinch work.

Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his leg kicks and body shots to tire out Alves, who has cardio issues. He notes that Alves is dangerous but has no takedowns in the UFC and tends to gas. Angelo believes if Diakiese stays composed and technical, he should win straightforwardly.

Big Brady picks Rafael Alves as an upset, citing Alves' impressive UFC debut against Damir Ismagulov where he showed improved cardio and power. He notes Alves is dangerous everywhere: on the feet with knockout power and on the mat with a black belt in BJJ. Brady expects Alves to hurt Diakiese on the feet, then snatch a submission when Diakiese shoots for a takedown.

Cody believes Diakiese will use his reach and footwork to stay outside and pick apart Alves, who is low-volume and explosive but fades. He notes Alves missed weight badly and is a 'weight bully' who struggles with cardio. He expects Diakiese to win a decision.

Daniel Levi picks Marc Diakiese, citing his speed and athletic advantage. He believes Diakiese can win a decision if he minds his P's and Q's against the experienced Alves. Levi acknowledges Alves's power and guillotine threat but thinks Diakiese's superior athleticism will be the difference.

Jacob is very confident in Marc Diakiese, calling him the real deal and predicting he will dominate. He mentions Diakiese's training with Khamzat Chimaev and his ability to use offensive wrestling if needed. Jacob thinks Alves is being fed to Diakiese as a winnable fight and expects a dominant performance.

Paul thinks Diakiese is the better athlete with better footwork and speed. He notes Alves is low-volume and explosive but fades. He expects Diakiese to stay on the outside and outpoint Alves. He is confident despite Diakiese's poor last performance.

The Guru picks Marc Diakiese by unanimous decision (30-27). He expects Diakiese to establish range with his jab and calf kicks, gradually breaking down Alves over three rounds. Alves may have moments with a takedown or big shots, but Diakiese's calf kicks will limit Alves' movement and lead to a dominant performance.

Angelo picks Da Woon Jung because Kennedy Nzechukwu has a habit of falling behind on rounds and relying on comeback knockouts, which is not a reliable betting strategy. He notes that Jung has good wrestling and can control the fight with takedowns, similar to his win over William Knight. Angelo believes the odds are fair and mentions a potential prop bet on Kennedy inside the distance for a refund if he loses a decision.

Big Brady picks Da Woon Jung because he believes Kennedy Nzechukwu is a slow starter who relies on opponents gassing out, as seen in his wins over Danilo Marquez and Carlos Oberg. Jung showed a new wrestling wrinkle by taking down William Knight eight times, and his gas tank is solid. Brady thinks Jung can mix in takedowns and won't fade like Nzechukwu's previous opponents, leading to a decision win.

Cody likes Nzechukwu as a dog. He argues that Jung's takedowns came against a much smaller opponent (Knight) and that Nzechukwu's size and reach will make takedowns harder. He notes Nzechukwu's improving cardio and volume, and that Jung struggled against Sam Alvey. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

Daniel Levi picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, emphasizing his 83-inch reach and toughness. He believes Nzechukwu's technique is improving and that he will grind out a close decision by winning the second and third rounds. Levi notes that Jung has struggled against lower-level competition and that Nzechukwu has more potential and a higher ceiling.

Jacob picks Kennedy Nzechukwu as an underdog, believing Kennedy's takedown defense will hold up and he will swarm Jung with volume. He acknowledges that Kennedy often falls behind but thinks he can win this fight, possibly inside the distance. Jacob is not very confident but likes the underdog play.

Paul leans toward Jung because of his wrestling. He notes Jung scored eight takedowns against William Knight, though Knight is much smaller. He thinks Jung can get takedowns and control Nzechukwu, but acknowledges Nzechukwu showed improvements in his last fight.

The Guru predicts Kennedy Nzechukwu will win by TKO in the second round. He describes a competitive first round with both fighters landing, but Nzechukwu's body work and knees take over in the second, culminating in a counter hook that drops Da Woon Jung. The Guru emphasizes Nzechukwu's body shots and clinch work as key factors.

Angelo picks Thiago Moises, noting he is the better technical striker and wrestler. He points out that Alvarez has no wrestling and has been taken down 100% of the time in the UFC. Angelo believes Moises can initiate takedowns and be on top, making him the safer pick.

Big Brady is confident in Thiago Moises, pointing out that Joel Alvarez has zero takedown defense and zero takedowns attempted in the UFC, relying on submissions from his back. Moises is a world-class grappler with a black belt, and Brady doubts Alvarez can submit him. He also notes Moises' striking has improved, as seen in his win over Alexander Hernandez.

Cody emphasizes Moises' improvements and his takedown ability, noting he even took down Islam Makhachev. He points out Alvarez's 0% takedown defense and that his submissions came against lower-level opponents. He expects Moises to take Alvarez down and control him, possibly winning by decision or submission.

Daniel Levi picks Thiago Moises, citing his higher level of competition and experience against top lightweights. He notes that Moises has a solid shell defense and kicks, and that Alvarez has zero percent takedown defense, which Moises can exploit. Levi acknowledges Alvarez's dangerous guard but believes Moises is on a different level and will win a decision or find a submission.

Jacob picks Thiago Moises but warns him not to grapple with Alvarez. He believes Moises' striking is more than enough to win and that taking Alvarez down could lead to a submission. Jacob is a fan of Moises and thinks he should keep the fight standing.

Paul thinks Moises is a more finished product with good BJJ and wrestling. He notes Alvarez has 0% takedown defense and Moises can take him down and control him. He expects Moises to win by decision or submission, but doesn't love the price.

The Guru picks Joel Alvarez by unanimous decision despite Alvarez missing weight. He expects Alvarez to out-strike Moises at range with jabs and calf kicks, while defending takedowns. The Guru expresses concern about the weight miss but still favors Alvarez's striking.