Fight card

UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen

February 25, 2023 UFC Apex Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S.
Brendan Allen

Brendan Allen W

26-7
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 4:25
Fight 1 VS Middleweight Completed

Brendan Allen

Moneyline
BetMGM +200
KO/TKO
BetRivers +800
Submission
FanDuel +900
Decision
FanDuel +480

André Muniz

Moneyline
DraftKings -205
KO/TKO
BetRivers +650
Submission
FanDuel +125
Decision
BetRivers +510
Fighter Stats

Brendan Allen

Age30
Height6' 2"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

André Muniz

Age36
Height6' 1"
Reach78"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Brendan Allen

3.59SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
3.62SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
1.56TD Avg
42.0%TD Acc.
56.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - André Muniz

2.08SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.46SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
3.98TD Avg
48.0%TD Acc.
35.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (2)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
André Muniz

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Muniz because he is a little too good for Allen. He notes that Allen has gotten lucky battling through bad positions, but this is where that luck runs out. Connor emphasizes Muniz's technical grappling and ability to force submissions, and while Allen is a confident grappler, Muniz's pressure and chain wrestling will be decisive.

Muniz opened at -110, dropped to -181, currently -226. Allen opened +110, jumped to +156, now +183.
"It feels like we've seen Allen really get good luck battling through really bad positions a lot in his fights. And this feels like the point where that luck runs out to me. Muniz is just a little …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
André Muniz

Zane picks Muniz because of his superior positional grappling and chain wrestling. He notes that Muniz is a much better back-taker than Jacob Malcolm, who repeatedly took Allen down with single legs. Zane highlights Muniz's ability to cut through guards and create pressure, and while Allen is a tough grappler who scrambles well, Muniz's technical edge should prevail. He also mentions Muniz's tendency to gas in the third round but believes his early dominance will be enough.

Muniz opened at -110, dropped to -181, currently -226. Allen opened +110, jumped to +156, now +183.
"I think the point that Brendan Allen gets owned on the ground and it hasn't happened for a long time. But the principal thing I got to look at here is the fact that as you say, Allen …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

AU

Augusto Sakai W

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 2 VS Heavyweight Completed

Augusto Sakai

Moneyline
FanDuel -104
KO/TKO
BetRivers +235
Submission
BetRivers +2200
Decision
FanDuel +320

Don'Tale Mayes

Moneyline
DraftKings +115
KO/TKO
FanDuel +210
Submission
BetMGM +1600
Decision
DraftKings +550
Fighter Stats

Augusto Sakai

Age35
Height6' 3"
Reach77.0"
Weight265 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Don'Tale Mayes

Age34
Height6' 6"
Reach81.0"
Weight260 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Augusto Sakai

4.6SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.83SApM
48.0%Str. Def.
0.23TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
56.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Don'Tale Mayes

3.22SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.61SApM
46.0%Str. Def.
0.59TD Avg
38.0%TD Acc.
46.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (2)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Connor picks Sakai, believing he can edge out a win by slowing the fight down with clinch work and using his durability. He notes that Mayes' inability to hit the same spot repeatedly makes it unlikely he'll knock Sakai out, and Sakai will do just enough work to pull out a decision. Connor acknowledges it's a close fight and that Sakai's confidence may be shaken, but he trusts Sakai's meat-and-potatoes approach over Mayes' chaos.

Sakai opened +125, now -137. Mayes opened -145, now +112. Connor says he wouldn't bet on any props.
"I'll go with Sakai for this this to me feels like a fight that he can win it might be a fight he edges like yeah just barely guts out and you're like wow that didn't actually make …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Zane picks Mayes despite his lack of structure, because Sakai's confidence has taken a hit after four straight finishes. He notes that Mayes is athletic, durable, and willing to try takedowns, and Sakai is not good on the ground. However, Zane admits he has no good reason to pick Mayes and calls it a coin flip, but he feels Sakai is not feeling himself lately.

Mayes via TKO was +200. Zane says he wouldn't bet on any props due to unpredictability.
"I don't have a good reason to pick maze but I just I'm just not feeling I don't think Spivak is feeling himself lately okay so sorry so I guess I'll take maze even though like he's such …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Tatiana Suarez

Tatiana Suarez W

13-1
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:51
Fight 3 VS Women's Flyweight Completed

Tatiana Suarez

Moneyline
DraftKings -750
KO/TKO
BetRivers +410
Submission
FanDuel +270
Decision
BetRivers +117

Montana De La Rosa

Moneyline
FanDuel +610
KO/TKO
BetMGM +2800
Submission
FanDuel +1600
Decision
BetRivers +1050
Fighter Stats

Tatiana Suarez

Age35
Height5' 5"
Reach66.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Montana De La Rosa

Age31
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Tatiana Suarez

2.95SLpM
60.0%Str. Acc.
1.58SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
4.41TD Avg
43.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Montana De La Rosa

2.9SLpM
37.0%Str. Acc.
3.39SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
1.85TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (2)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Suarez because De La Rosa will let her wrestle. He notes that De La Rosa is a competitive fighter but lacks strategy, and if Suarez is the same fighter, she will do Tatiana Suarez things for as long as she is able. Connor also mentions that De La Rosa's tight pocket boxing style gives opportunities for opponents to get in on her hips, which Suarez can exploit.

Suarez opened at -700, now -788. De La Rosa at +500 to +550. Connor says he wouldn't bet on Suarez at those wide odds due to X-factors.
"I will just simply assume that she's gonna look like Tatiana Suarez and if she does she is going to get a fight where she gets to do Tatiana Suarez things for as long as she is able"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Zane picks Suarez, assuming she will look like her old self and dominate with wrestling. He notes that De La Rosa is a classic test fighter who will accept whatever fight her opponent wants, and if Suarez can bring physical dominance, she will win. However, he acknowledges major X-factors: Suarez hasn't fought in almost four years, has neck and knee injuries that could affect her wrestling, and her striking is poor. Still, he believes she will get the takedowns she wants.

Suarez opened at -700, now -788. De La Rosa at +500 to +550. Zane says he wouldn't bet on Suarez at those wide odds due to X-factors.
"I gotta pick Tatiana Sargas I think she's gonna get the game she's gonna get the fight she wants she's gonna get the chances to take get the takedown she wants but this is all about how you …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Mike Malott

Mike Malott W

14-2-1
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 4:15
Fight 4 VS Welterweight Completed

Mike Malott

Moneyline
DraftKings -215
KO/TKO
FanDuel +200
Submission
FanDuel +280
Decision
FanDuel +500

Yohan Lainesse

Moneyline
Caesars +185
KO/TKO
BetWay +350
Submission
FanDuel +1800
Decision
BetRivers +700
Fighter Stats

Mike Malott

Age34
Height6' 1"
Reach73.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Yohan Lainesse

Age33
Height6' 1"
Reach76.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Mike Malott

3.93SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.06SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
1.88TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
14.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Yohan Lainesse

2.22SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
3.38SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
0.94TD Avg
28.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (2)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Connor picks Malott, noting that Lainesse is not a good wrestler and has no change-up; he has to get a knockout. Connor points out that Lainesse's solution to gassing was to reduce output, which is not sustainable. Malott, while not a great wrestler, is willing and has a nice left hook. Connor also mentions that Lainesse may never have faced someone who throws good punches, and Malott's compact punching could be a problem for him.

Malott opened at -235, now -222. Lainesse opened +200, now +178.
"I guess I'll take him a lot because the other thing with Linus is that he's not a good wrestler it's not a good wrestler there's not really any change-up that Linus can throw in here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Zane picks Malott because he is the smoother, more defensively mindful fighter with better pocket mechanics. He notes that Malott has a great sense of spatial awareness in the pocket and throws compact, solid punches. Lainesse, on the other hand, is a raw power puncher who gasses easily and has poor wrestling. Zane believes if Malott survives the first round, he can push Lainesse to fatigue and potentially hurt him with his left hook.

Malott opened at -235, now -222. Lainesse opened +200, now +178.
"I'm gonna take a lot I think being the smoother slicker more defensively mindful guy inside with better mechanics as long as he survives the first round I think he can push Linus to the point that yeah …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Trevor Peek

Trevor Peek W

9-3
KO (punches) R1 4:59
Fight 5 VS Lightweight Completed

Trevor Peek

Moneyline
DraftKings -190
KO/TKO
BetRivers -105
Submission
FanDuel +850
Decision
BetRivers +800

Erick Gonzalez

Moneyline
FanDuel +220
KO/TKO
BetRivers +320
Submission
FanDuel +1700
Decision
FanDuel +950
Fighter Stats

Trevor Peek

Age31
Height5' 9"
Reach70.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Erick Gonzalez

Age34
Height5' 11"
Reach75.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Trevor Peek

4.39SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
3.88SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
1.45TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
52.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Erick Gonzalez

2.4SLpM
36.0%Str. Acc.
8.08SApM
40.0%Str. Def.
6.0TD Avg
55.0%TD Acc.
50.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (2)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Erick Gonzalez

Connor picks Gonzalez, noting that he has a five-inch reach advantage and should be able to stick at range with jabs and kicks. He acknowledges that Gonzalez doesn't maintain range well and gets into the pocket, but he believes Gonzalez is trying to be a good fighter and has better structure than Peek. Connor also points out that Gonzalez's early career losses were not by knockout, which is a good sign for his durability here.

Peek opened at -200, dropped to -172, now -199. Gonzalez opened +170, dropped to +144, now +164.
"I'll take guns all us to get this one I think you know generally for him the fighters who beat him are pretty good they're not complete messes most of the time"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Zane picks Peek because Gonzalez is made of glass and his style pushes him forward into the pocket, where Peek can land. He notes that Gonzalez is uncomfortable at range and gets clipped, while Peek is a messy brawler who will storm the castle. Zane admits Peek could get knocked out in the process, but he picks him to get the knockout.

Peek opened at -200, dropped to -172, now -199. Gonzalez opened +170, dropped to +144, now +164.
"I'm gonna pick him really yeah he's a messy brawler and Eric Gonzalez certainly has something to him yeah but he is made of glass"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Jasmine Jasudavicius

Jasmine Jasudavicius W

15-4
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00
Fight 6 VS Women's Flyweight Completed

Jasmine Jasudavicius

Moneyline
FanDuel +108
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1000
Submission
BetMGM +1000
Decision
BetRivers +175

Gabriella Fernandes

Moneyline
BetRivers -121
KO/TKO
BetRivers +700
Submission
BetRivers +750
Decision
FanDuel +210
Fighter Stats

Jasmine Jasudavicius

Age37
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Gabriella Fernandes

Age32
Height5' 6"
Reach66.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Jasmine Jasudavicius

3.7SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
3.71SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
2.59TD Avg
44.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Gabriella Fernandes

3.51SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
5.31SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.42TD Avg
18.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (2)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Fernandes. He emphasizes that Jasudavicius needs to develop a more aggressive mindset to walk through punches and get to her clinch, but she hasn't shown that. He notes that Jasudavicius was put off by Silva's speed and couldn't time her punches, and that she needs a 'Julianna Peña' mentality. He also mentions that Jasudavicius's other loss to Alyssa Kraus is further evidence of her getting scared off her game.

"I'll stick with you on this and go with Fernandez as well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Zane picks Fernandes despite acknowledging Jasudavicius has a clear wrestling advantage. He notes that Jasudavicius is a slow, ponderous striker with awkward form, and that Fernandes manages distance well and has good output. He believes Jasudavicius will struggle to close the distance and get to her top game, and that Fernandes is solid enough on the ground to survive. He also points out that Jasudavicius has a history of being put off by opponents who fire back, as seen against Natalia Silva.

"I guess I will take Fernandez, which is unusual when I'm looking at a matchup where one person seems to have a clear wrestling advantage."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Jordan Leavitt

Jordan Leavitt W

13-3
TKO (knees and punches) R1 2:27
Fight 7 VS Lightweight Completed

Jordan Leavitt

Moneyline
DraftKings -105
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1600
Submission
BetMGM +200
Decision
FanDuel +440

Victor Martinez

Moneyline
BetMGM +120
KO/TKO
BetRivers +240
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
FanDuel +460
Fighter Stats

Jordan Leavitt

Age31
Height5' 9"
Reach71.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Victor Martinez

Age34
Height5' 8"
Reach70.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Jordan Leavitt

2.21SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
1.59SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
3.15TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
30.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Victor Martinez

7.94SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
7.66SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.7TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (2)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Leavitt. He emphasizes that Leavitt is a strategic thinker who keeps opponents at range and clings to them when they get close. He notes that Martinez's striking game would fit a better athlete, but he is not that athlete. He also mentions that Leavitt's style is specifically crafted to take advantage of regional-level opponents like Martinez.

"This looks like an eminently winnable fight for leave it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

Zane picks Leavitt, describing him as a dysfunctional but frustrating fighter who knows how to win rounds with awkward distance management, kicks, and opportunistic grappling. He notes that Martinez has a slick boxing game but is not a good athlete, and that Leavitt's style will be very difficult for Martinez to handle. He compares Leavitt to Elias Theodorou and Ryan Hall in terms of being awkward and frustrating.

"I really doubt that Victor Martinez has the tools to handle that."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Ode' Osbourne

Ode' Osbourne W

13-10
Decision (split) (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Fight 8 VS Catchweight (130 lb) Completed

Ode' Osbourne

Moneyline
Caesars +155
KO/TKO
FanDuel +380
Submission
BetRivers +1400
Decision
FanDuel +500

Charles Johnson

Moneyline
BetWay -163
KO/TKO
FanDuel +260
Submission
BetRivers +850
Decision
BetMGM +250
Fighter Stats

Ode' Osbourne

Age34
Height5' 7"
Reach73"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Charles Johnson

Age35
Height5' 9"
Reach70.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Ode' Osbourne

2.94SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
3.24SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
0.94TD Avg
29.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Charles Johnson

4.77SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
4.02SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.51TD Avg
16.0%TD Acc.
69.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (2)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Johnson. He highlights that Johnson has become a more aggressive fighter since his loss to Muhammad Mokaev, and that Osbourne is a tricky but fragile fighter who often loses by getting knocked out. He notes that Johnson is a big flyweight with good range and durability, and that Osbourne's style of gambling with strikes makes him vulnerable.

"I hope this is another impressive one. And then we get to see Charles Johnson getting tested for contention very soon."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Zane picks Johnson, noting that Johnson has added an aggressive mindset to his already solid technical skills. He believes Johnson will knock Osbourne out, as Osbourne is not very durable and tends to get cracked when his gambles don't pay off. He also notes that Johnson is a big flyweight who is tough to hit clean and has never been knocked out.

"If he can be the same kind of fighter against Oda Osborne, he's gonna knock Oda Osborne out."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Joe Solecki

Joe Solecki W

13-6
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:55
Fight 9 VS Lightweight Completed

Joe Solecki

Moneyline
DraftKings -520
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1000
Submission
BetRivers +107
Decision
BetRivers +195

Carl Deaton III

Moneyline
Caesars +550
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1300
Submission
BetRivers +1900
Decision
BetMGM +1200
Fighter Stats

Joe Solecki

Age32
Height5' 9"
Reach70.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Carl Deaton III

Age36
Height5' 7"
Reach69"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Joe Solecki

1.97SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
1.85SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
2.06TD Avg
48.0%TD Acc.
14.0%TD Def.
1.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Carl Deaton III

1.53SLpM
31.0%Str. Acc.
1.85SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
50.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (2)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Solecki. He describes Deaton as having a striking style that is very difficult for him to pull off, with low output and awkward movement. He notes that Solecki is a good wrestler and grappler who will dominate once he gets to his positions.

"Very, very straightforward pick."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Zane picks Solecki, stating that Solecki will easily take Deaton down and choke him out. He notes that Deaton's striking is limited and awkward, and that Solecki will have an easy time getting to his positions. He also mentions that Deaton's win over Justin James is not meaningful, as James was on a losing streak.

"I just got to pick Joe's lucky to go out there and wrestle him down and choke him out."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Nurullo Aliev

Nurullo Aliev W

11-0
Decision (majority) (29–27, 29–27, 28–28) R3 5:00
Fight 10 VS Lightweight Completed

Nurullo Aliev

Moneyline
DraftKings -180
KO/TKO
BetWay +350
Submission
BetRivers +440
Decision
FanDuel +250

Rafael Alves

Moneyline
Caesars +165
KO/TKO
FanDuel +650
Submission
BetRivers +650
Decision
FanDuel +460
Fighter Stats

Nurullo Aliev

Age25
Height5' 10"
Reach72.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Rafael Alves

Age35
Height5' 8"
Reach68.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Nurullo Aliev

2.72SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
1.63SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
2.12TD Avg
43.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Rafael Alves

1.85SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.3SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
0.29TD Avg
25.0%TD Acc.
44.0%TD Def.
1.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (2)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Alves

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Alves. He notes that Alves is a very hard fighter to beat because he puts opponents in hard spots, as seen in his fight with Demir Magomedov. He believes Aliev is too unproven and that this is too much too soon for him. He also criticizes the matchmaking, suggesting Aliev should be fighting someone like Carl Deaton instead.

"I think this is too much too soon for Alia."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Alves

Zane picks Alves, despite acknowledging that Aliev is an interesting prospect. He notes that Aliev is not experienced enough and not comfortable on the feet or on top, and that Alves is an athletic freak who fights hard everywhere. He compares the dynamic to the Blanchfield-Andrade fight, where the less experienced fighter struggled with the athleticism. He also mentions that Aliev's win over Josh Wick was unimpressive, as he did little for the first four minutes.

"I'm just going to go with my gut and say that Elvis is just an athletic freak."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.