UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill

Angelo picks Johnny Walker but is hesitant, noting that Walker's last fight against Thiago Santos was too controlled and he lost his identity. He believes Walker needs to return to his unorthodox, high-volume style to win, otherwise Jamahal Hill will piece him up. Angelo thinks the disappointing loss may motivate Walker to revert to his natural style.

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill, citing his high output, durability, and cardio. He notes Walker's striking defense is poor and his chin is a concern. He believes Walker's only path is to be wild, but Hill can handle it. He predicts Hill wins by second round knockout.

Cody picks Jamahal Hill based on Hill's superior hands and power, noting that Johnny Walker has a questionable chin and has been knocked out quickly in the past. He highlights Hill's sharp jab and right hand, and his legitimate KO victories over durable opponents like Jimmy Crute and Alvin St. Pruitt. Cody also points out that Walker's explosiveness has been diminished since training with John Kavanagh, and that Walker's cardio and takedown defense are poor. He believes Hill can keep the fight standing and eventually clip Walker.

Daniel Levi is confident in Jamahal Hill, citing his volume, body work, and discipline. He notes that Hill has the output of a smaller fighter but at 6'4" with an 80-inch reach, and that his only loss came from overconfidence on the ground, which Walker won't exploit. Levi believes Hill will knock out Walker, likely in the first round, and that Walker hasn't looked the same since the Corey Anderson fight.

Hill is the more active striker and will pressure Walker, who tends to be hesitant. Hill's power and sniping ability should find Walker's chin. Walker has knockout power too, but Hill is the more likely finisher. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play, as Hill should get the KO early. Hill by KO at -130 and round props are also attractive.

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that the fight comes down to volume and durability. He notes that Walker is a low-volume striker (around 50 significant strikes per fight) while Hill has shown high output, landing over 100 significant strikes in a fight. Paul also mentions that Walker's recent performances have been boring and ineffective, and that Hill hasn't been rocked in his fights. He is confident in Hill but doesn't love the -250 price.

The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill to win by first-round KO. He criticizes Johnny Walker's range control and chin, believing Hill's pressure and power will be too much. He predicts Hill will march Walker down, land combinations, and put him away with a left hook as Walker throws a front kick. He notes Hill's confidence and momentum from his last win, and that Walker has a chin problem.

Angelo leans toward Jamie Pickett, citing his recent performance against Joseph Holmes where he showed volume and mixed in takedowns. He notes that if Pickett fights aggressively and uses takedowns, he beats Daukaus almost every time. However, he acknowledges Pickett's gun-shy tendencies could be a problem.

Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus, noting Pickett has low output and has been outgrappled by lesser fighters. He believes Daukaus has advantages on the feet and on the ground, and predicts a submission in the first or second round.

Cody picks Kyle Daukaus, citing his well-rounded skill set and superior grappling. He notes that Daukaus has shown good moments in his UFC fights, including a strong performance against Kevin Holland that was ruled a no contest due to an accidental headbutt. Cody believes Daukaus will have faster hand speed and should be able to take the fight to the mat, where he has a sizable advantage. He also mentions that Jamie Pickett's game is not well-rounded and relies on smothering opponents against the cage.

Levi leans toward Daukaus but thinks the line is too wide, suggesting it should be around -175. He acknowledges Pickett's momentum and confidence from two wins, but notes Pickett's wins were over lower-level opponents. Levi expects Daukaus to win a close decision, possibly an ugly fight, and mentions Daukaus should finish but might not.

Daukaus is better everywhere: clinch, grappling, and developing striking. Pickett has physical tools but lacks output and fight IQ. Daukaus should control the fight with takedowns and either submit or decision Pickett. The sub/decision combo at -165 is a great line. A knockout is unlikely, so the method is between submission and decision.

Paul picks Daukaus, noting that Pickett is low-volume and doesn't use his long reach well. He thinks Daukaus's path to victory is to take the fight to the mat, where he should have a clear advantage. Paul acknowledges that Pickett could spam clinches, but overall he sees Daukaus as a rightful favorite at -250.

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus to win by 29-28 decision in a clinch-heavy fight. He believes Daukaus has better technique on the feet and superior jiu-jitsu, and can neutralize Pickett's cage-grappling game. He notes Daukaus has a good chin and has never been finished as a pro, so Pickett's power is less of a threat. He expects a boring clinch fest with Daukaus edging out the rounds.

Angelo picks Parker Porter confidently, though admits bias as a friend. He highlights Porter's footwork, power, underrated wrestling, and ridiculous volume. He notes Baudot is a competent striker with power but has poor ground game and has never seen a decision. Angelo expects Porter to dominate with wrestling and volume.

Big Brady picks Parker Porter, calling Baudot one of the worst heavyweights. He notes Porter has better cardio and ground game, while Baudot has been finished in all losses and tends to quit. He predicts Porter wins by second or third round knockout.

Cody is very confident in Porter, calling him a potential best pick of the week. He highlights Porter's excellent cardio, high volume striking (149 significant strikes in his last fight), and takedown ability. Cody notes that Baudot has no redeeming qualities: poor grappling, no power, and a weak chin. He believes Porter can win wherever the fight goes, either by out-striking or taking Baudot down and smashing him.

Levi picks Porter, noting that Baudot has a history of quitting (took a knee against Nascimento) and that Porter has heart and toughness. He expects Porter to survive an early storm and take over after the first round. Levi has faded Baudot in both his UFC fights and believes Porter's veteran experience and durability will be key.

Porter has a clear path to victory: weather Baudot's early storm, then take him down and submit him. Baudot has terrible grappling and gasses in the second round. Porter's submission game is underrated, and Baudot has been submitted by lower-level grapplers. Porter by submission at +700 is the best prop on the card. The fight doesn't go to decision at -200 is also a strong play.

Paul picks Porter, expressing surprise that the line is only -250 given Baudot's poor performances. He notes that Baudot has been dominated in his UFC fights and lacks power or grappling. Paul thinks Porter's cardio and pace will be too much for Baudot, and that Porter should win comfortably.

The MMA Guru picks Parker Porter to win by 29-28 decision. He trusts Porter's experience and veteran tricks, noting he has good grappling awareness and toughness. He thinks Alan Baudot may have early success but Porter will wear him down in the later rounds. He also mentions that Baudot won his UFC entry by DQ and has been KO'd before.

Angelo picks Nikolas Motta despite loving Jim Miller. He notes Motta is explosive, athletic, has great power, and is patient. He believes Miller's chin and durability are declining, and Motta's striking is too slick and athletic for the aging Miller. He acknowledges Miller's ground advantage but doubts Miller can take the damage to get there.

Big Brady picks Nikolas Motta, noting he hits hard and is nine years younger. He believes Motta's takedown defense has improved and that Jim Miller's gas tank is poor. He predicts Motta will knock out Miller in the second round, though he acknowledges Miller could win early.

Cody is hesitant but leans toward Motta. He acknowledges that Jim Miller is a live underdog with excellent submission skills and sneaky power, but he is concerned about Miller's age (38) and Lyme disease, which may affect his cardio. Cody notes that Miller tends to fade in later rounds and that Motta, despite a questionable chin, has power and could finish early. He ultimately doesn't have the courage to pick Miller straight up, so he goes with Motta.

Levi is confident in Motta, highlighting his brutal knockout power (devastating KOs over Joe Solecki and Cesar Balmaceda) and improved discipline. He notes that Jim Miller historically struggles past the first round, and Motta has the jiu-jitsu to survive early grappling. Levi expects Motta to weather the early storm and finish Miller in the second or third round.

This fight is likely to end inside the distance. Miller will look for a submission early, but if he fails, his cardio fades and Motta can knock him out. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play regardless of who wins. Motta by KO is also a possibility, but the under is the safer bet. Miller by submission at +350 is a live dog prop.

Paul picks Jim Miller as a dog, arguing that the line has moved too far in Motta's favor. He points out that Motta's takedown defense is untested and that Miller, with 39 UFC fights, has a massive experience advantage. Paul believes Miller can take Motta down and submit him, or even knock him out. He acknowledges Miller's age and potential cardio issues but thinks the value is on the veteran at +155.

The MMA Guru picks Nikolas Motta to win by late second-round TKO. He disagrees with the public favoring Jim Miller, arguing that Motta is a better prospect with a solid chin and good technique. He notes that Motta beat Joe Solecki, who controlled Miller on the ground, and that Motta's grappling is better than previous prospects Miller has beaten. He thinks Motta's youth and durability will carry him.

Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley but notes Alhassan's power and counter-striking. He thinks Buckley needs to pick up the pace and cut angles, which he doesn't normally do. He expects the fight to go longer than expected and plans to bet the over 1.5 rounds if available.

Big Brady picks Abdul Razak Alhassan as a dog, expecting a first round knockout. He notes Alhassan has a better chin and is one of the hardest hitters in the division, while Buckley has been knocked out three times and is hittable. He acknowledges Alhassan's only path to victory is a first round finish, but believes he will land early.

Cody picks Alhassan as an underdog, despite his gut telling him Buckley should win. He is concerned about Buckley's tendency to start slow and be hesitant, as seen in fights against de Trigo and Arroyo. Cody notes that Alhassan has monstrous power and a better chin, and that Buckley's cardio is questionable. He believes Alhassan can clip Buckley if the fight stays standing, and since Buckley won't wrestle, it's a dangerous matchup for him.

Levi picks Razak as a dog, but is hesitant because Buckley has more paths to victory and has made positive changes (quit his job, trained at Xtreme Couture). However, he notes Razak's power and that Buckley has been knocked out before, especially by a right high kick which is Razak's specialty. Levi acknowledges the longer the fight goes, the worse for Razak, but still picks him to catch Buckley early.

Despite the expectation of a knockout, this fight could become a 15-minute kickboxing match. Alhassan is durable and most of his losses are by decision. Buckley's forward pressure and volume could earn him a decision if he avoids getting knocked out. The fight goes to decision at +240 is a contrarian play, with Buckley by decision at +550 as a sprinkle.

Paul picks Alhassan, agreeing with Cody. He likes the under on 1.5 rounds at -115, expecting a finish. Paul notes that both fighters have power and poor cardio, but Alhassan has a better chin and more one-punch knockout power. He thinks Alhassan can get the job done early, and if it goes past the first round, Alhassan still has a chance due to Buckley's tendency to fade.

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley to win, likely inside two rounds. He notes Buckley is much bigger, has a reach advantage, and better cardio than Alhassan. He believes Buckley's boxing combos and savagery will overwhelm Alhassan, who can be mentally broken. He acknowledges either could win by first-round KO but leans toward the younger, hungrier fighter.

Angelo picks David Onama, citing his speed, power, and versatility advantage in a kickboxing match. He notes Benitez has grappling tools but rarely uses them (only one takedown in 11 UFC fights). He acknowledges Onama's grappling struggles but believes Benitez won't exploit them.

Big Brady picks David Onama but is not very confident, warning against overrating Onama's performance against Mason Jones. He notes Benitez has excellent striking defense and could pull off an upset. However, he likes Onama's youth, size, reach, and cardio, and predicts a late knockout as Benitez slows down.

Cody picks Onama, believing he is a legitimate prospect. He highlights Onama's impressive performance against Mason Jones, where he showed great cardio, durability, and the ability to get up from takedowns. Cody notes that Benítez is a gatekeeper on the decline, with low volume and questionable durability after being dropped by Billy Q. He thinks Onama will out-strike Benítez and possibly finish him.

Levi is confident in Onama, citing Benitez's decline after wars and weight issues. He notes Onama's impressive short-notice performance against Mason Jones and believes his African power will be too much for Benitez's chin. Levi compares this to other prospects beating faded veterans and expects Onama to find a clean knockout.

Benítez is the seasoned veteran with cleaner striking and a strong kicking game. Onama's hype is based on beating a low-level opponent; Benítez's durability is overstated as a concern. Benítez should outpoint Onama with his southpaw kicks and experience. The under 2.5 rounds and Benítez by KO at +500 are also live.

Paul picks Onama, impressed by his ferocity and durability in the Mason Jones fight. He notes that Onama will be massive at 145 and that Benítez's durability is questionable after being dropped by Billy Q. Paul thinks Onama's pace and power will be too much for Benítez.

The MMA Guru picks David Onama to win by first-round KO. He notes Onama's close fight with Mason Jones on short notice and believes Onama is a great prospect with a big reach advantage. He thinks Gabriel Benitez's durability has declined after several KO losses and that Onama will crack his chin early.

Angelo picks Jessica-Rose Clark but is hesitant, noting the odds are wide and Egger is a live underdog. He likes Clark's striking and newfound wrestling confidence, but warns if Clark doesn't mix in wrestling, she could struggle. He thinks Egger is much better than 2-to-1 odds suggest.

Big Brady picks Jessica-Rose Clark, impressed by her recent fight IQ and game planning. He believes she has a significant striking advantage and can mix in takedowns. He sees no clear path to victory for Egger and predicts Clark wins by decision.

Cody leans toward Clark but is not confident. He notes that Clark is physically strong and has good clinch work, but Egger is a judo black belt with submissions. Cody thinks Clark's striking is better and that she can control the clinch, but he is wary of Egger's grappling. He doesn't love the price and suggests this fight is dicey.

Levi picks Clark, noting her well-rounded game and recent improvements in strength and conditioning. He believes she can stuff Egger's judo throws and keep the fight standing, where she has the advantage in boxing. Levi expects Clark to win a unanimous decision, possibly with takedowns of her own down the stretch.

Egger's judo could neutralize Clark's grappling; she can redirect momentum and get takedowns of her own. Clark's grappling is still developing, and she slowed down in her last fight. Egger by decision is the pick, with a submission prop at +800 as a possibility if Clark gets caught. The line movement toward Egger suggests value.

Paul struggles with this fight and does not make a clear pick. He notes that Clark's recent fights have been greasy and that Egger is strong in judo. He is not interested in betting Clark at -190 and seems to pass on the fight.

The MMA Guru picks Jessica-Rose Clark to win by decision. He believes Clark's athleticism and boxing will be the difference, as she has good grappling and trains at AKA. He thinks the grappling will cancel out and that Clark will out-strike Egger on the feet, winning 29-28 in a boring fashion.

Angelo loves Chas Skelly in this matchup, citing his technical striking, willingness to slug, and wide variety of takedowns with submission threats. He notes Striegl is a solid wrestler but never fully commits. He believes Skelly is well-prepared for a grappling match and will get it done.

Big Brady picks Chas Skelly but is very hesitant due to multiple red flags: Skelly is 36, retiring, and hasn't fought in over two years. He notes Skelly could submit Striegl if he's not washed, but the ring rust and retirement fight narrative scare him. He predicts Skelly wins by late round submission.

Cody leans toward Skelly but with very low confidence due to Skelly's three-year layoff and age (36). He notes that Skelly's wins have come against low-level competition and that his wrestling may have declined. Cody is unsure what version of Skelly will show up and suggests waiting for live betting or weigh-ins to get a better read.

Levi picks Skelly to win by submission, citing his elite submission skills and experience. He notes that Striegl's record is padded and that Skelly, despite a dad bod, is too tough and experienced. Levi expects Skelly to take Striegl down and submit him, possibly after some early success from Striegl.

Skelly has a cardio and scrambling advantage over Striegl, who fades in later rounds. The fight will be grapple-heavy with many reversals, and Skelly should dominate positionally. Striegl's cardio is atrocious when pushed, so Skelly by submission in round 3 is the play. The long layoff for both is a concern but Skelly's pace should be too much.

Paul also leans toward Skelly but is very hesitant. He notes that Skelly's three-year layoff and private Instagram are red flags. Paul thinks the fight is likely a grappling match where Skelly has an edge, but he is not confident enough to bet it at -220. He suggests waiting for live betting.

The MMA Guru picks Chas Skelly to win by first-round submission (d'arce or anaconda choke). He questions Mark Striegl's level of competition, noting he fought a 35-23 opponent after going 10-0. He believes Skelly's grappling and nasty d'arce choke will catch Striegl when he shoots a bad takedown, similar to his last fight.

Angelo picks Diana Belbiţă, citing her pressure, experience, and takedowns as the difference. He acknowledges Gloria de Paula is the better striker, but believes Belbiţă's well-roundedness and forward pressure will win out. He notes if de Paula keeps it standing, she could win.

Big Brady hates this fight and refuses to bet on it. He reluctantly picks Diana Belbiţă because she throws more volume and might take de Paula down, but he has no confidence. He notes de Paula has poor fight IQ and doesn't try to get up from takedowns. He predicts Belbiţă wins by decision.

Cody picks Belbiţă, noting her improvements under coach Kru Allen at Iron Tiger. He highlights her better volume and power, and believes she can out-strike de Paula. Cody acknowledges that both fighters have poor wrestling, but thinks Belbiţă's striking is superior and that she should win a stand-up fight.

Levi leans toward Belbiţă, citing her confidence from a recent win and de Paula's struggles in the UFC. He notes de Paula looked like a deer in headlights and has been knocked out. Levi believes Belbiţă will be more aggressive and break away in the later rounds, though he acknowledges both have liabilities on the ground.

De Paula is the cleaner striker with better discipline and leg kicks. She should counter Belbiţă's wild forward pressure. The concern is Belbiţă's volume could sway judges, but de Paula's crisp striking should earn a decision. A KO at +500 is also intriguing but less likely.

Paul picks Belbiţă, citing de Paula's recent knockout loss and Belbiţă's longer combinations. He expects Belbiţă to be a slight favorite by fight time and likes the value at -110.

The MMA Guru picks Diana Belbiţă to win by decision, citing her experience and reach advantage. He notes that Gloria de Paula has been KO'd early in her career and is inconsistent. While both fighters are low-level, Belbiţă's 14-6 record compared to de Paula's 5-4 gives him confidence in the more experienced fighter.

Angelo picks Chad Anheliger despite thinking the odds are wide. He notes Anheliger is a power striker with solid BJJ and impressive sweeps and get-up game. He likes Strader's body-head combination but thinks it becomes predictable. He plans to bet on Strader plus 3.5 rounds as a prop.

Big Brady picks Chad Anheliger to win, citing better durability and cardio. He notes Anheliger has never been knocked out and has improved his submission defense, while Strader has been hurt in many fights and slows down. He expects Anheliger to break Strader as the fight goes on and predicts a second or third round knockout.

Cody picks Anheliger, noting that despite the wide odds, Anheliger is a rightful favorite. He highlights Anheliger's cardio advantage, durability, and experience against tougher competition. Cody points out that Strader has only six fights, poor cardio, and was easily knocked out by Montel Jackson. He believes Anheliger can win by submission or decision, and that Strader's only path is an early knockout, which is unlikely.

Levi picks Anheliger, noting that Strader came to the UFC too soon with only 7 fights and has faced a step up in competition. He respects Anheliger's journey from 2-5 to the UFC and his solid, well-rounded game. Levi expects Anheliger to break Strader down in the later rounds with his experience and craftiness.

Both fighters are aggressive strikers with high finish rates. Anheliger has 14 of 16 fights ending inside the distance, while Strader has 6 of 7. The under 2.5 rounds is the primary play, though there is a concern it could become a 15-minute barn burner. Anheliger's durability is suspect but he should find the knockout as Strader gets overaggressive.

Paul picks Anheliger, despite hating the price. He looked for reasons to fade Anheliger but found none in Strader's game. Paul notes that Strader is a knockout-or-bust fighter with poor fundamentals, and that Anheliger showed good composure and cardio in his Contender Series win. He thinks Anheliger should win comfortably.

The MMA Guru picks Chad Anheliger to win by third-round TKO. He notes Anheliger was once 2-5 but has gone 9-0 in his last nine fights against good opponents like Brady Hiestand and Muin Gafurov. He believes Anheliger's toughness and volume will wear down Jesse Strader, who hasn't impressed and has been KO'd before.

Big Brady picks Jonathan Pearce despite being high on Rodriguez. He notes Rodriguez is coming up a weight class on short notice, which is a huge disadvantage against a pressure wrestler like Pearce. He predicts Pearce will break Rodriguez with his pace and get a second or third round finish.

Cody is very confident in Pearce, calling him a potential parlay piece. He notes that Rodriguez is taking the fight on short notice, is young and inexperienced, and comes from a kickboxing gym with poor grappling. Cody highlights Pearce's dominant performances at 145, where he ragdolls opponents with takedowns and ground-and-pound. He believes Pearce will press Rodriguez against the cage, take him down, and finish him.

Levi picks Pearce, citing his size (6' at featherweight), relentless pace, and takedown volume. He notes that Rodriguez is talented but too small for featherweight and that Pearce's style of constant pressure and grappling will break him. Levi acknowledges Rodriguez's bright future but believes this is a tough matchup for him.

Pearce has a significant size and strength advantage, with a 5-inch height edge. He will likely implement a takedown-heavy game plan, and Rodriguez is making a short-notice debut at a weight class not his own. Pearce's blueprint from training partners and his own grappling should lead to a finish inside the distance. Pearce inside distance is the pick.

Paul picks Pearce, agreeing that he deserves to be the biggest favorite on the card. He notes that Pearce's pace and strength at 145 are overwhelming, and that Rodriguez is a short-notice replacement with no notable wins. Paul thinks Pearce will use his size and wrestling to dominate.

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Pearce to win by third-round rear-naked choke. He questions Christian Rodriguez's level of competition, noting his last opponent was 19-36 and that his record looks padded. He believes Pearce's grappling will be too much for Rodriguez, as Pearce has proven himself against better competition and will take Rodriguez into deep waters.

Angelo picks Khalid Taha (though the matchup is Mario Bautista vs Jay Perrin, the transcript discusses Bautista vs Taha; likely a transcription error). He notes Taha's power and speed match up well against Bautista's volume, and Taha's cardio holds up. He was hoping for underdog odds but the line is essentially even.

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista confidently, noting Perrin is a grinder on short notice. He believes Bautista's takedown defense and striking are superior, and predicts a third round knockout, giving Perrin his first KO loss.

Cody picks Bautista, believing he will bounce back from his loss to Trevin Jones. He notes that Bautista is talented with a diverse skill set, and that Perrin lacks knockout power and is primarily a grappler. Cody thinks Bautista can win on the feet or on the ground, and that Perrin's only chance is a submission, which is unlikely. He expects Bautista to be around a -250 favorite.

Levi picks Bautista but is uncomfortable laying -350. He notes that Perrin is a solid but unspectacular fighter, and Bautista has good volume. However, he questions how Bautista will bounce back from his first knockout loss. Levi expects Bautista to win a decision.

Bautista is the much slicker striker and should keep the fight standing against Perrin, who relies on grinding takedowns. Bautista has 70%+ takedown defense and was preparing for a wrestler. Perrin is short notice but in shape; however, Bautista's striking advantage should lead to a finish. Bautista inside distance at +170 is the play.

Paul picks Bautista, noting that Perrin doesn't have crippling power, which is Bautista's main concern. He thinks Bautista's aggressive style and wrestling will be too much for Perrin. Paul is waiting for the line but expects Bautista to be a solid favorite.