UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev

Angelo is very confident in Ankalaev, calling him the most complete fighter in the division with methodical, technical striking and wrestling. He believes Błachowicz's only chance is to land a big shot in close range, but Ankalaev's length, accuracy, and control will prevent that. He considers Ankalaev at -255 incredible value.

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev, citing his wrestling as the key difference. He notes Błachowicz has poor getup game once taken down, and Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to win rounds. He expects a competitive but boring fight on the feet, with Ankalaev winning by decision. He expresses disappointment in the matchup.

Cody picks Ankalaev, believing he is better in all facets and the number one guy in the division. He notes Ankalaev's high fight IQ, cardio, durability, and ability to adapt to opponents. He thinks Jan is older and his body is deteriorating, citing the Glover fight where Jan tapped quickly to a neck crank. Cody sees Ankalaev winning inside the distance, possibly in rounds 3-5, as Jan fades.

Connor picks Błachowicz as a flyer, believing Ankalaev will wait too long to wrestle, which could be fatal against a striker as good and defensively sound as Błachowicz. He notes Błachowicz's jab, footwork, and counterpunching will trouble Ankalaev, and that Ankalaev's single-strike approach plays into Błachowicz's hands. However, he acknowledges Ankalaev could dominate if he wrestles early.

Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win the vacant light heavyweight title. He emphasizes Ankalaev's patient, risk-averse style that frustrates opponents and his southpaw stance with a nasty counter right hook. Levi notes that Jan Błachowicz tends to attack in a straight line, which plays into Ankalaev's counters, and that Ankalaev can mix in takedowns from his Greco-Roman background. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and body kicks but believes Ankalaev is defensively sound enough to avoid big moments and will win a decision, likely 4-1. Levi placed a 2-unit bet on Ankalaev at -250.

Lock is confident in Ankalaev, having bet him as his lock of the week at -255. He believes Ankalaev is that much better than Błachowicz and will rule the light heavyweight division for years. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks $5.26 is not too late to buy in, as Ankalaev has longevity and could reach $8-9 after defending the belt. He recommends holding onto the stock long-term rather than selling immediately.

Paul picks Ankalaev, noting he is a minus 255 favorite and that he believes Ankalaev is better in all facets. He struggles with Ankalaev's tendency to fight safe and not always press for finishes, making it hard to bet props. He thinks Ankalaev wins but is not confident in the moneyline at that price, considering a parlay or prop instead.

The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Jan Błachowicz by decision. He believes Ankalaev will be patient at range, use front kicks and jabs, and mix in takedowns after making Błachowicz hesitant. He notes Ankalaev's experience over five rounds and his ability to drain opponents, predicting a 49-46 decision where Ankalaev loses the first round but dominates later rounds.

Zane picks Ankalaev, citing his durability, patience, and power. He believes Ankalaev will find a moment to take Błachowicz down and win three rounds, as Błachowicz has historically struggled against takedown artists. Zane trusts Ankalaev to be consistent enough to capitalize on opportunities.

Angelo picks Pimblett, believing he is the better striker and grappler. He notes that Pimblett outgrappled Jordan Leavitt, who was considered a better grappler. However, he warns that Gordon has legit wrestling and could take Pimblett down and hold him there, as Leavitt took him down three times. He suggests the best bet is Pimblett inside the distance (decision no action) if the odds are reasonable.

Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett, citing his power and dangerous grappling, while noting Jared Gordon's poor durability and lack of finishing ability. He expects Pimblett to hurt Gordon on the feet or lock in a submission, likely in the second round. He does not agree with the -250 price but sees Pimblett as the more likely finisher.

Cody picks Paddy despite acknowledging he has been fading him in previous fights. He thinks Paddy's wrestling, back-taking, and rear-naked choke are key, and that Paddy has a massive reach advantage. He notes Paddy's durability and wild style but believes Jared Gordon is not the guy to expose him. He expects Paddy to use grappling to grind out a decision or late submission.

Connor picks Pimblett, reasoning that Gordon is not a powerful striker and will fall into clinch scrambles where Pimblett is dangerous. He notes Gordon repeatedly gives up his back on the mat, and Pimblett is a skilled backtake artist. Connor is hesitant but believes Gordon's flaws will lead to a submission loss.

Daniel Levi picks Paddy Pimblett to win inside the distance, though he expects Jared Gordon to be competitive early. He notes Gordon's superior volume and top control, but believes Pimblett is a 'big moment fighter' who can turn the tide with a knockdown or submission. Levi thinks Gordon may win the first round or two, but Pimblett will eventually find a finish. He does not bet this fight, preferring to watch.

Lock picks Jared Gordon as his dog of the night, believing his style will give Paddy fits. He thinks Gordon will keep his foot on the gas, push the pace, box, and grind out a decision, as long as he stays conscious. He notes that Paddy has faced adversity in every UFC fight but Gordon is the best fighter he's faced. Lock likes the betting line at +217 and sees a possible pump and dump on PredictionStrike at 80 cents, though he acknowledges Gordon has a ceiling.

Paul leans towards Jared Gordon as a dog, having faded Paddy in all his UFC fights. He thinks Paddy's wrestling defense is suspect and he has been hurt in fights. He notes Gordon's skills and value at plus money, but is hesitant because Paddy has won close fights before. He is pot-committed to fading Paddy but acknowledges the risk.

The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett over Jared Gordon by rear-naked choke. He expects Gordon to be winning early with cage pressure, but Pimblett's speed and power will catch Gordon, leading to a scramble where Pimblett takes the back and chokes him out. He notes the odds are too wide and considers it a close fight, but believes Pimblett's finishing ability prevails.

Zane reluctantly picks Pimblett, agreeing with Connor that Gordon will give up his back in scrambles. He notes Gordon is a better wrestler but Pimblett will let himself be taken down to create grappling exchanges. Zane is not confident, saying if Gordon loses it's his own fault.

Angelo picks Ponzinibbio, noting his clean striking, range control, and volume. He warns that Ponzinibbio must avoid Lawler's power and treat him with respect. He believes Ponzinibbio can get a finish if he maintains a high pace like Barbarena did. He acknowledges Lawler is dangerous even at 40 but thinks Ponzinibbio's technical approach will win.

Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, but is not confident in the price. He notes Ponzinibbio has lost a step but still competes at a high level, while Morono is a short-notice replacement. He expects a close fight that goes to decision, with Ponzinibbio outpointing Morono.

Cody picks Ponzinibbio, citing his volume striking, footwork, and ability to absorb damage. He notes Ponzinibbio has been competitive against high-level guys despite recent split decision losses. He thinks Morono is a 50/50 fighter who fights to his opponent's level and is taking the fight on short notice. He expects Ponzinibbio to win by decision.

Connor picks Ponzinibbio, citing his full camp, powerful straight punches, and low kicks. He notes Morono is a short-notice replacement and lacks the athleticism to handle Ponzinibbio's sustained offense. Connor believes Ponzinibbio's persistence and power will overwhelm Morono, who tends to put himself in danger.

Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio but with low confidence due to Ponzinibbio's diminished form after a health scare. He praises Ponzinibbio's prime style: stalking footwork, calf kicks, and a beautiful straight right. However, he notes Ponzinibbio is a step slower now and has gone 1-3 in his last four. Levi acknowledges Morono's toughness and awkward brawling style, but believes Ponzinibbio's cleaner striking and experience should carry him. He warns not to be surprised if Morono wins.

Lock likes Ponzinibbio to win, believing he will torch Morono from the jump and eventually knock him out. He sees Morono as a plodding forward fighter whose durability holds up some nights but not against Ponzinibbio's striking. From a long-term perspective, he thinks Ponzinibbio will get a decent bump but will lose against higher-level competition. He recommends a pump and dump on Ponzinibbio this weekend.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Ponzinibbio. He notes that Ponzinibbio has been preparing for this fight for a long time while Morono is on short notice. He thinks the minus 180 line is fair and is surprised it's not higher given the circumstances. He sees Ponzinibbio's experience and preparation as key factors.

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio over Robbie Lawler (note: transcript says Lawler but fight is Ponzinibbio vs Morono; likely error). He believes Ponzinibbio will jab Lawler's face off and win by TKO in round two or three. He criticizes Lawler's age and recent performances, and thinks Ponzinibbio's range striking will be too much.

Zane picks Ponzinibbio, emphasizing his ability to rally back in fights and his power. He notes Morono's grit but says Ponzinibbio's sustained offense and punching power are a level above Morono's recent opponents. Zane is concerned about Morono's short notice but trusts Ponzinibbio's experience.

Angelo picks Till as an underdog, believing Till's boxing and range control will be too much for du Plessis, who rushes forward with his chin up. He notes Till's recent struggles with injuries and mental health, and a DUI, making him nervous about his moneyline bet. However, he argues that Till's losses came to elite fighters who would also beat du Plessis.

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his volume, power, and submission game, while questioning Darren Till's mentality and recent form. He notes Till has been submitted multiple times and has low volume. He expects du Plessis to win by second round submission, but acknowledges Till has a puncher's chance.

Cody picks Darren Till as a dog, citing the stylistic matchup. He notes Till is a clean counter-striker with a nasty left hand, while du Plessis leads with his chin up and is wild. He thinks du Plessis will panic shoot takedowns, which Till can defend and counter. He acknowledges Till's low output and untrustworthiness but sees this as a good spot for him.

Connor picks du Plessis, citing his relentless pace, durability, and power. He notes Till is low output, inconsistent, and does his best work in the first round. Connor believes du Plessis will survive early trouble and overwhelm Till with constant pressure, as Till's confidence has eroded after recent losses and injuries.

Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his massive output advantage over Darren Till. He notes Till has never landed 50 strikes in a UFC fight, while du Plessis landed 113 against Brad Tavares. Levi believes du Plessis's awkward but effective striking, power, and grappling (body lock, back takes) will overwhelm Till if the fight goes past the first round. He acknowledges Till's chance to land a sniper shot but thinks du Plessis will outwork and break him. Levi agrees with the line movement from -135 to -190.

Lock picks du Plessis to get his hand raised, and recommends buying stocks on him on PredictionStrike at $1.54, as he is half the price of Till and will see a solid bump with a win. He is not interested in du Plessis on the moneyline at -180 due to the question mark that Till brings, but sees PredictionStrike as a way to exploit value. For Till, he suggests the moneyline as a dog rather than investing on PredictionStrike at $3.00.

Paul leans towards Darren Till as a dog, noting the matchup is good for Till because du Plessis is not an elite wrestler and leaves his chin up. He thinks Till can hang back and pick him off. However, he is hesitant because Till throws low volume and is hard to trust with money. He decides slightly on Till due to the plus money.

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Darren Till, citing Till's lack of recent form and physical decline. He believes du Plessis is a real athlete with power and grappling ability, and will mix in takedowns after making Till cautious with his striking. He predicts du Plessis will finish Till via mounted guillotine or ground and pound in the later rounds.

Zane picks du Plessis, agreeing that Till's low output and inconsistency are major issues. He notes du Plessis is a messy but relentless fighter who will keep coming, and Till's confidence is shaken. Zane acknowledges du Plessis could get knocked out but trusts his durability and pace.

Angelo is extremely confident Topuria wins, calling him a world-class wrestler from Georgia who can outstrike and outwrestle Mitchell. He compares it to Roman Dolidze vs Jack Hermansson, where the world-class wrestler dominated. He has a moneyline bet on Topuria placed earlier and is shocked Topuria isn't a 9-1 favorite. He believes Mitchell's Arkansas wrestling is no match for Topuria's lifelong Georgian wrestling.

Big Brady slightly leans toward Bryce Mitchell as a dog, citing Mitchell's superior cardio and wrestling. He notes Topuria has shown cardio issues in his only decision win, while Mitchell has improved striking and can push a pace. He expects a back-and-forth war with Mitchell edging out a split decision, but has low confidence.

Cody picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his development, wrestling, durability, and cardio. He thinks Mitchell's pressure and takedowns will be key, and that Topuria's wrestling may not be enough to stop him. He notes Topuria's close fight with Herbert Burns and that Mitchell has better cardio and can take over late. He predicts Mitchell by decision.

Connor picks Mitchell, citing his versatility, wrestling, and ability to take advantage of opportunities. He notes Topuria has a narrow approach and Mitchell has proven he can adapt and take fights where he wants. Connor believes Mitchell's takedowns and top control will be decisive, as Topuria hasn't faced a grappler of Mitchell's caliber.

Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to hand Bryce Mitchell his first loss. He is impressed by Topuria's fast-twitch athleticism, nasty hands, body work, and Greco-Roman wrestling background. Levi notes Topuria's ability to stuff takedowns and his proven heart (coming back from a head kick knockdown). He believes Topuria's athleticism and well-rounded game will be too much for Mitchell, who relies on relentless takedown attempts. Levi acknowledges Mitchell's toughness and top control but thinks Topuria can sprawl and brawl, making Mitchell pay for his shots.

Lock likes Topuria on the moneyline and on PredictionStrike, noting that at -130 and $1.75 on PredictionStrike, there is good value. He acknowledges question marks about Topuria's third round against Yousuff and getting rocked by Jai Herbert, but credits him for battling back from adversity. He believes Topuria has tremendous potential and that the hype is justified, though he needs to prove it. He recommends taking Topuria on PredictionStrike and moneyline, while for Mitchell, he suggests just the moneyline as a dog.

Paul picks Mitchell, noting his intelligence in the fight and ability to pick his spots. He thinks Mitchell's wrestling and submission threat will be a factor, and that Topuria's power and speed are dangerous early. He suggests a Mitchell round 3 prop or live betting, as Mitchell may take over later. He is not fully confident but leans Mitchell.

The MMA Guru picks Ilia Topuria over Bryce Mitchell by first-round TKO via body shots. He respects Mitchell's skills but believes Topuria's boxing is too clean and he will push Mitchell backwards, ripping body shots. He notes Topuria's scrambling ability and submission threats, and thinks Mitchell will struggle to get takedowns. He predicts Topuria finishes him early.

Zane picks Topuria, citing his confidence on the ground from the Ryan Hall fight and his superior athleticism. He believes Topuria's grappling will get him back to his feet repeatedly, and his striking pressure will force Mitchell to process the fight too often. Zane notes Mitchell's striking gaps when he's indecisive, and Topuria's body punching will be key.

Angelo is confident Rosas will dominate via wrestling and control, predicting a wet blanket decision. He has a 2-unit moneyline bet on Rosas at -255. However, he expresses concern that Rosas is too young (18) for the UFC, comparing him to Aaron Pico who was pushed too fast. He believes Rosas will outpace Perrin and wrestle him relentlessly.

Big Brady picks the underdog Jay Perrin, citing Perrin's excellent takedown defense, cardio, and toughness. He notes Rosas Jr. has faced no adversity and has poor striking, while Perrin trains with Merab Dvalishvili and has good grappling. He expects Perrin to survive early takedowns and take over in later rounds, winning by decision or late finish.

Cody picks Rosas Jr., citing his submission grappling and cardio. He thinks the UFC is building him up and that Perrin is a favorable matchup. He notes Rosas' relentless pressure and chain wrestling. He expects a submission or inside the distance win, and suggests taking Rosas inside the distance at plus 140.

Daniel Levi picks Raul Rosas Jr., believing the UFC matched him against a weak opponent in Jay Perrin. He describes Perrin as average everywhere with a poor attitude, and notes that the UFC offered the fight to other fighters first. Levi likes Rosas's length, awkwardness, grappling ability (back takes, scrambles), and confidence. He expects Rosas to win, possibly by submission, but is not crazy about the -240 price. He suggests waiting for a better line around -200.

Lock is confident in Rosas Jr. from a PredictionStrike perspective, noting that if he fulfills his potential, the current price of $1.26 will look like a steal. He acknowledges the possibility of struggles like other young fighters, but believes Rosas has the best base for MMA with his grappling and jiu-jitsu, and a safe style that minimizes damage. He thinks this is likely the best price you'll ever get on him, and recommends buying in for the long term.

Paul does not make a clear pick, noting Rosas is very young (17) and that Perrin has wrestling credentials. He thinks Perrin could give Rosas trouble and that the fight is not a high priority for betting. He acknowledges Rosas' potential but is not confident either way.

The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr. over Jay Perrin by close decision. He acknowledges Perrin is a formidable fighter who gave tough fights to Aoriqileng and Mario Bautista, but believes Rosas Jr.'s willingness to grapple will be the difference. He expects Rosas Jr. to secure takedowns and control positions, possibly losing a round but winning 29-28.

Angelo picks Daukaus despite Rozenstruik being a 2-1 favorite, because he believes Daukaus is the better striker with better footwork, speed, and volume. He notes both have power and suspect chins, making it essentially a 50-50 fight. He advises not to bet on this fight due to the volatility, but suggests using both in knockout Kings entries.

Big Brady picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik, emphasizing his superior power and questioning Daukaus's chin after being knocked out by Curtis Blaydes. He notes Rozenstruik has been more active and hits harder, and expects a first-round knockout. He criticizes the UFC for feeding Daukaus to a heavy hitter.

Cody picks Rozenstruik, citing his power and kickboxing background. He notes Daukaus has durability issues, having been knocked out by Lewis and Blaydes. He thinks Rozenstruik will land a counter right hand and knock him out. He suggests Rozenstruik by knockout or under 1.5 rounds.

Lock picks Rozenstruik to win, likely by knockout, but he is not comfortable paying the chalk price. He notes that Rozenstruik doesn't always maximize his knockout opportunities, making him hesitant even on the KO line at -125. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he suggests a pump and dump: buy Rozenstruik this weekend, sell after the win, because Rozenstruik has a ceiling and won't crack the top five again. He also mentions Daukaus might be cut after a third straight loss.

Paul picks Rozenstruik, noting his power and that Daukaus has been knocked out by heavy hitters. He is more interested in the under 1.5 rounds prop, as he expects a finish. He acknowledges Rozenstruik is coming off a knockout loss but thinks Daukaus' durability is a bigger issue.

The MMA Guru picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Chris Daukaus by first-round KO. He criticizes Daukaus's chin and believes he was exposed in his fight against Shamil Abdurakhimov, where he got hit a lot. Rozenstruik has a reach advantage and power, and Daukaus is coming off a loss by his brother. He predicts Rozenstruik will put him down early.

Angelo picks Shahbazyan despite his three-fight losing streak, because Lungiambula has terrible cardio and tends to gas out after wrestling. He notes that Shahbazyan's takedown defense is suspect (57%) and Lungiambula is a judo black belt who could take him down, but Lungiambula's tendency to exhaust himself makes him vulnerable. Angelo warns not to put Shahbazyan in parlays as he could be a parlay buster.

Big Brady picks Edmen Shahbazyan, noting the significant step down in competition. He highlights Shahbazyan's power and well-rounded skills, while criticizing Lungiambula's poor gas tank and low volume. He expects Shahbazyan to win by second round knockout, possibly by wrestling to tire Lungiambula.

Cody picks Shahbazyan, citing his talent and that he has moved to a new gym (Extreme Couture). He thinks Lungiambula is a gatekeeper on a losing streak and that Shahbazyan should win if he doesn't gas. He notes Shahbazyan's previous losses were to top competition and that this is a step down.

Daniel Levi picks Edmen Shahbazyan but with low confidence, calling him a 'fraud past the first round.' He notes Shahbazyan is a potent first-round finisher but has broken every time he's gone past the first round. Levi acknowledges Dalcha Lungiambula's power and experience in later rounds, but thinks Shahbazyan may catch him early. He warns against laying the -280 price and says if Shahbazyan doesn't finish in the first, he will likely quit. Levi picks Shahbazyan by first-round finish but advises against betting him.

Lock is on the inside the distance line for Shahbazyan, agreeing with the co-host that this is a good jumping-off point to buy in at $1.35. He thinks the move to Extreme Couture was the best thing for his career, and that the team will help him remember what he's good at and how to get finishes. He expects a rejuvenated version of Shahbazyan and believes he will put together a couple of good wins, though he doesn't expect a huge bump immediately.

Paul picks Shahbazyan but is scared off by the price. He notes Lungiambula has power and could land a shot, but thinks Shahbazyan should win. He is not confident enough to lay the juice.

The MMA Guru picks Edmen Shahbazyan over Dalcha Lungiambula, despite initially considering the underdog. He notes that Shahbazyan's losses are to top competition like Nassourdine Imavov and Jack Hermansson, and he looked impressive against Brad Tavares. He believes Shahbazyan has improved his grappling and training at Extreme Couture with Ankalaev, and will survive an early storm to win by TKO in the second or third round.

Angelo picks Buckley but is hesitant, noting that Curtis has only fought grapplers in the UFC and knocked them out, while Buckley has fought strikers with mixed success. He acknowledges Curtis's short-notice loss to Hermansson may be excusable. He plans to wait for prop bets rather than betting the moneyline, comparing the matchup to Wonderboy vs Holland where a striker's true level was revealed.

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as a dog, citing Curtis's superior durability and volume. He notes Buckley has been knocked out three times and knocked down often, while Curtis has only been knocked out once in 38 fights. He expects Curtis to find Buckley's chin and knock him out in the second round.

Cody picks Chris Curtis, citing his takedown defense (100% in UFC), striking output, and experience. He notes Buckley's low volume and cardio issues, and that Curtis will double his output. He thinks Curtis' jab and right hand will be key, and that Buckley's power is a threat but Curtis can weather it. He expects a decision win for Curtis.

Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his more varied path to victory. He criticizes Chris Curtis's poor attitude and limited offense outside the pocket. Levi believes Buckley should use movement, kicks, and feints to stay on the outside, and can mix in takedowns to exploit Curtis's historically weak bottom game. He thinks Curtis's only chance is a pocket boxing match, while Buckley can win by striking at range, takedowns, or even a knockout. Levi sees Buckley as the more explosive and versatile fighter.

Lock picks Buckley to get his hand raised, but he wants nothing to do with the fight from a betting or PredictionStrike perspective. He thinks neither guy has a huge ceiling in the UFC, and Buckley's skill set is limited. He notes that Buckley is closer to Curtis in size compared to Curtis's previous fight against Jack Hermansson, but still sees Buckley as a guy who will trade wins and losses without breaking into the top 10.

Paul picks Chris Curtis, noting the plus money and that Curtis should be able to pick Buckley apart at range. He thinks Buckley's power is dangerous but Curtis has the boxing and experience. He is confident in Curtis as a dog.

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley over Chris Curtis, praising Buckley's underrated striking and athleticism. He notes that Curtis is 35 and relies on counter-wrestling and big shots, but Buckley is elusive and dangerous with head kicks and body kicks. He believes Buckley will out-scrap Curtis over three rounds, possibly winning 30-27 or by TKO, and that Curtis doesn't have the KO power to stop Buckley.

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez as an underdog, noting that the odds (Quarantillo nearly a 2-1 favorite) feel off. He highlights Hernandez's superior athleticism, wrestling, and striking defense, and believes Quarantillo may have rust after a year off. However, he admits it's a low-confidence pick and plans to watch for prop bets like the plus 3.5 round bet on Hernandez's scorecard.

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo, emphasizing his high volume and pressure that will break Hernandez. He notes Hernandez has a history of gassing and crumbling under adversity, and cutting to featherweight may worsen his cardio. He expects Quarantillo to weather an early storm and finish Hernandez in the second round by knockout.

Cody picks Quarantillo, citing his cardio, durability, and pace. He thinks Hernandez is explosive early but fades, and that Quarantillo will break him down in later rounds. He suggests live betting Quarantillo after round 1, as the line will improve. He expects a finish or dominant decision.

Daniel Levi picks Billy Quarantillo, emphasizing his massive output advantage. He notes Hernandez has never landed more than 50 significant strikes in a UFC fight and tends to fade after the first round. Quarantillo, by contrast, threw 383 strikes in his fight with Shane Burgos. Levi acknowledges Hernandez's early power and explosiveness, but believes if Quarantillo can survive the first round, he will drown Hernandez with volume and pressure. He considers betting on Quarantillo but is wary of Hernandez's early finish potential.

Lock is confident in Billy Quarantillo, citing his style of dragging opponents into deep waters and drowning them with pace and pressure. He believes Alexander Hernandez relies on physical gifts but his technical abilities haven't caught up, and the weight cut to featherweight for the first time in nine years is a major concern. Lock thinks Quarantillo's durability will allow him to survive Hernandez's early finishing threat, and then he will finish Hernandez late. He sees Quarantillo as a top-15 gatekeeper with longevity in the UFC.

Paul leans Quarantillo, noting his cardio and ability to withstand damage. He thinks Hernandez is dangerous early but fades. He is not interested in the minus 160 line early, preferring to wait for live betting. He sees Quarantillo taking over in round 3.

The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo by third-round TKO over Alexander Hernandez. He believes Hernandez will have a tough weight cut to featherweight and has a history of crumbling under adversity. Quarantillo is known for giving everyone a tough fight and has survived dangerous opponents like Spike Carlisle and Shane Burgos. He expects Quarantillo to overcome an early tough round and finish Hernandez later.

Angelo picks Erik Silva because he believes Silva's grappling pressure and control will be too much for T.J. Brown. He notes that Brown has poor takedown defense (41%) and makes poor decisions in fights, creating scrambles he can't win. Silva is an aggressive grappler who marches forward and looks to get the fight to the ground, where he controls opponents. Angelo expects Silva to bully Brown and win via control.

Big Brady picks Erik Silva, citing Silva's impressive grappling and ground-and-pound, while criticizing T.J. Brown's poor fight IQ and lackluster performances. He notes Silva has faced weaker competition but Brown has been knocked out and submitted multiple times. He expects Silva to catch Brown in a submission in the second round, but admits he is not very confident.

Cody leans Silva, citing his explosiveness and power. He notes Brown's cardio and durability issues, and that Brown may tire himself out with takedowns. He thinks Silva can exploit Brown's low hands and lack of head movement. He suggests under 1.5 rounds as a prop.

Daniel Levi picks Erik Silva, despite Silva's untested competition. He criticizes T.J. Brown for being prone to getting dropped and submitted, calling him 'not the brightest.' Levi likes Silva's size, ground-and-pound, elbows, and kicks. He notes Silva has been past the first round before. While he wishes he knew more about Silva, he trusts him over Brown, who he says will likely get dropped and choked out.

Lock favors T.J. Brown because he is more proven and represents a step up in competition for Erik Silva. He notes that Silva has only finishes on his regional record but may falter against decent competition, showing cardio issues or being unable to handle being the nail instead of the hammer. Lock does not have a bet on it himself, as he doesn't see Brown as super reliable, but from a narrative and PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks Brown has the edge.

Paul leans Silva, noting Brown's inconsistency and the turmoil at Glory MMA. He thinks Silva's power and explosiveness could be the difference, but acknowledges it's a coin flip. He is not confident and considers it a pass for now.

The MMA Guru picks Erik Silva over T.J. Brown, arguing that Silva is a step above bottom-level UFC featherweights and has shown good potential. He criticizes Brown for only beating very low-level opponents and barely scraping by, while Silva is more experienced and has a good record. He predicts a decision win for Silva.

Angelo picks Saaiman because he believes the gap in striking is wider than the gap in grappling. He notes that Koslow is an aggressive grappler but his striking is not great, while Saaiman is a technical striker who can also grapple. However, he strongly advises against betting on this fight due to both fighters being UFC debutants with only six fights each, calling it a 50-50 fight.

Big Brady picks Cameron Saaiman to win, but with low confidence due to limited tape on both fighters. He notes Saaiman has power and finishing ability, but questions his takedown defense and getup game against Koslow's submission threat. He expects Koslow to have early success with takedowns, but thinks Saaiman will eventually land a knockout as the fight progresses.

Cody picks Saaiman, citing his performance on Contender Series where he beat an undefeated opponent. He notes Saaiman's cardio, strength, and pressure. He thinks Koslow is a one-dimensional submission specialist who will struggle if he can't get the fight to the ground. He expects Saaiman to win by TKO inside the distance.

Daniel Levi picks Steven Koslow as a slight underdog lean, but admits he has very little information on either fighter. He likes Koslow's slick grappling (mounted triangle, back takes) and training at Fusion XL. He notes Saaiman has fought slightly better competition but still low-level. Levi says this is a 'dog or pass' situation and he'll go with the plus money, but it's not a confident play. He suggests taking a small unit bet or just watching.

Lock mentions he took a 0.3 unit shot on Koslow's moneyline because he thinks the line is a bit wide. He believes Koslow is strong in areas where Saaiman has shown struggles in the past, and that the unknown factor could make Koslow the next big prospect. He sees it as a buy-low opportunity at 30 cents on PredictionStrike.

Paul picks Saaiman, noting he is a young prospect with a bright future. He thinks Koslow is a one-dimensional grappler and that Saaiman's takedown defense and cardio will be key. He suggests Saaiman inside the distance as a prop.

The MMA Guru picks Cameron Saaiman over Steven Koslow, noting that Koslow is stepping in on short notice and tends to go for early submissions, which Saaiman can survive. He believes Saaiman is composed and experienced enough to weather the early storm and come back to win a 29-28 decision, losing the first round but taking the second and third.