Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, believing he is the better technical fighter with cleaner striking and better wrestling. He acknowledges Vinicius Oliveira's insane pace but thinks Bautista can match it and fight for 25 minutes. He notes that Bautista's last fight against Umar Nurmagomedov was close and impressive, and he expects Bautista to go dog for dog with Oliveira and come out on top.

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes that Vinicius Oliveira has shown vulnerability on the ground, as seen in his fight against Bernardo Sopai. Bautista hasn't used his grappling recently due to tough opponents, but Brady expects him to take Oliveira down and submit him in the third round.

Cody picks Vinicius Oliveira as an underdog, comparing him to Carlos Prates and Alex Pereira for his pressure and power. He argues Oliveira's constant forward pressure and size will overwhelm Bautista, who lacks one-shot power. Cody believes Oliveira's momentum and damage output will sway judges, especially in the Apex where damage is prioritized.

Connor agrees with Zane, citing Bautista's technical lockdown and ability to handle pressure. He compares Oliveira to Dricus du Plessis in terms of being a 'vibes fighter' who can overwhelm opponents, but believes Bautista's scrambling and experience against elite pressure (like Aldo) give him the edge. He notes Oliveira's tendency to get tired and be hittable.

Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista to win inside the distance, likely by submission in the championship rounds. He emphasizes Bautista's superior cardio and pace, especially in a five-round fight, and notes that Oliveira has been finished in all his losses. James believes Oliveira will gas out in rounds 4-5, allowing Bautista to take over and secure a finish.

The host picks Bautista inside the distance, likely in round 4. He believes Bautista's fight IQ, cardio, and game planning will allow him to contain Oliveira's reckless aggression and take over as Oliveira gasses. He notes Bautista can match Oliveira's violence and has a cardio edge, and expects him to find a finish in the later rounds.

Paul picks Mario Bautista, citing concerns about Oliveira's gas tank in a five-round fight. He notes Bautista's durability and ability to control the cage, similar to his fight against Jose Aldo. Paul expects Bautista to stick to a game plan and potentially win by decision, suggesting live betting on Bautista in later rounds.

The host picks Mario Bautista over Vinicius Oliveira. He thinks Oliveira is a size bully with sloppy technique, and Bautista is equally big but technically superior. He notes Bautista's pace and pressure, and his performance against Ricky Simon was more impressive than Oliveira's. He predicts a 4-1 decision win for Bautista.

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, arguing he won the first two rounds against Merab before breaking his hand. He believes Umar's range management, wrestling, and cardio will be too much for Mario Bautista, who has benefited from fighting older or less active opponents. Angelo is confident Umar wins a three-round fight.

Big Brady is extremely confident in Umar Nurmagomedov, calling him the second-best bantamweight in the UFC. He believes Umar is superior in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects him to take down Bautista, get to his back, and submit him. Brady notes Bautista has been finished in both losses and that Umar needs a statement to earn a title shot. He predicts a second-round submission.

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov despite the steep -625 price, citing his wrestling and striking superiority. He notes that Umar took down Merab and Sandhagen multiple times, and Bautista has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Cody believes Umar will win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, with the Abu Dhabi crowd favoring him. He also mentions that Bautista's path to victory likely requires a KO, which is unlikely.

Connor also picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his superior striking fundamentals and fight IQ. He notes Bautista's tendency to start slow or fade, and believes Umar's ability to control range and pace will be decisive. Connor thinks Bautista will be competitive but ultimately outworked over three rounds.

Daniel Vreeland is hesitant due to the steep odds (-625) and Bautista's eight-fight win streak, but he believes Umar's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi advantage will secure a decision. He notes that Bautista struggles to finish higher-level opponents and that a Nurmagomedov won't lose a decision in Abu Dhabi. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation but picks Umar.

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently, stating he is better in all realms of MMA: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Mario Bautista is a level below and that Umar's kicks, footwork, and takedowns will be too much. He expects Umar to win by 30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission, and notes that Umar has been in Abu Dhabi for a month to acclimatize. He also mentions improvements in Umar's cardio after the Merab loss.

The host thinks Nurmagomedov has Bautista covered everywhere but expects the fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He mentions a small shot on Bautista for some people but officially picks Nurmagomedov by decision.

Paul leans Umar but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Bautista is rock solid and capable of giving anyone a good fight, and that the line should be closer to -225. However, he acknowledges Umar's competitive performance against Merab and his wrestling advantage. Paul suggests that if Bautista wins, it would likely require a KO, and points out the plus 1800 line on Bautista KO as a potential fun bet.

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision, expecting a 30-27 or 29-28 win. He believes Umar's flicky kicks and takedowns will give Mario Bautista problems, and that Bautista's recent wins (over Patchy Mix, Damon Blackshear) have aged poorly. He notes that Umar gave Merab Dvalishvili a tough fight and nearly beat him, while Bautista is not at that level. He predicts Umar will drag Bautista down against the cage and control the fight, though Bautista may have a good round.

Angelo picks Patchy Mix despite Mario Bautista's seven-fight win streak. He notes Patchy is a dangerous grappler with 13 submission wins, but is one-dimensional. He thinks if Mario defends takedowns, he can win striking exchanges. However, he is influenced by Josh Thompson's confidence in Patchy and believes Mario's win over Aldo was a bad decision, so MMA karma may favor Patchy.

Big Brady picks Patchy Mix, citing his elite grappling and guillotine. He believes Mix will get Bautista down and stay there, eventually finding a submission. He questions Bautista's resume, noting close fights against Blackshear and Aldo, and thinks there is a levels difference in grappling. He predicts Mix by second-round submission.

Connor picks Patchy Mix, believing his elite grappling and ability to take Bautista down early and control him will be decisive. He acknowledges Bautista's scrambling is excellent but thinks Mix's positional grappling and backpacking style can neutralize Bautista's pressure. Connor admits it's a tough fight and Bautista could win if Mix fades.

Bautista is expected to shut down Mix's grappling game and then outstrike him on the feet, showcasing that he is the better striker. He will put together more damage and win on the scorecards.

The MMA Guru picks Patchy Mix to finish Mario Bautista, citing Mix's impressive resume including wins over Horiguchi, Magomedov, and Pettis. He believes Mix is in his prime and has too much finishing potential. He predicts Mix will drop Bautista and submit him with a guillotine or anaconda choke in the first or second round. He criticizes Bautista's performance against Aldo.

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.

Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.

Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.

Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.

Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.

The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.

Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by first-round knockout, despite hating the line. He notes Bautista has been dominating on the ground but doubts he can take down and submit Cody Garbrandt, who has excellent takedown defense. Instead, Brady believes Bautista will knock Garbrandt out on the feet, as Garbrandt's chin is compromised and he fights cautiously.

Cody thinks Bautista is the better fighter with superior wrestling and striking, but notes Blackshear is durable and has never been finished. He expects Bautista to win a decision, possibly fading in later rounds. He suggests live betting Blackshear after the first round if Bautista starts fast.

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mario Bautista, citing his body work, aggression, and pace. He thinks Bautista's pressure will pull him away in the second and third rounds, leading to a decision win. However, he acknowledges that Blackshear is a live dog with plus money, and that the quick turnaround for Blackshear could be a factor. Levi calls it a dog-or-pass situation and respects Blackshear's skills.

Angelo is very confident in Mario Bautista, citing his youth, speed, wrestling, and grappling advantage over the 43-year-old Guido Cannetti. He believes Bautista will win inside the distance and considers that the most valuable bet. He notes the odds are wide but thinks Bautista should be a much heavier favorite.

Big Brady is very confident in Mario Bautista, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Bautista's wrestling and grappling look really good, and Cannetti has been finished four times by submission. Brady expects Bautista to get the fight down to the mat early and finish with a first-round submission, though he acknowledges Cannetti has power and Bautista's chin is in question.

Cody picks Bautista by submission, noting Cannetti's tendency to give up his back and get choked. He highlights Bautista's improved wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and thinks Cannetti's brawling style will lead to a submission loss.

Connor picks Bautista confidently, noting that Bautista has become an aggressive bully who overwhelms opponents with pressure and chain wrestling. He acknowledges Cannetti's early explosiveness but believes Bautista's durability and pace will wear him down, leading to a finish in the second round or later.

Bautista is on a three-fight winning streak and looking career-best. Cannetti is 43 years old at bantamweight, which is a huge disadvantage. Bautista's physical transformation and finishing ability should be too much. I expect a dominant finish within 10 minutes, likely by submission. This is a favorable matchup for Bautista to continue his rise.

Paul picks Bautista easily, noting Cannetti's age (43) and Bautista's improvements in grappling. He thinks Bautista can submit Cannetti, who has a history of getting choked out. He mentions a YOLO bet on Cannetti by first-round KO but prefers Bautista by submission.

The MMA Guru picks Mario Bautista, noting he is a 10-to-1 favorite but believes he should win. He highlights Bautista's recent performances, including a submission win over Keller and dominating Benito Lopez. He thinks Bautista is in his prime and will submit Cannetti.

Angelo picks Bautista, noting his high volume, forward pressure, and submission threat. He acknowledges Lopez's three-year layoff is a major concern, and while Lopez is wild and fun, that style can lead to takedowns and submissions. He says he tries not to bet on long layoff fights.

Big Brady notes Lopez's three-year layoff and questionable training, while Bautista is improving and training at MMA Lab. He expects Bautista to have better cardio and the ability to mix in takedowns. He predicts an exciting first round but Bautista will take over and submit Lopez in the second round.

Cody picks Mario Bautista, calling him a stud. He notes Bautista's wrestling, striking power, better footwork, and quicker hands compared to Lopez. He acknowledges Bautista's vulnerability when fights get dirty, as seen against Trevin Jones, but thinks he can stay at the outside and use leg kicks and combinations. He also notes Bautista's submission win over Brian Kelleher showed new wrinkles. Lopez has been inactive (3.5-year layoff) and has only two UFC fights since 2017, with questionable improvements. Cody is confident Bautista wins but finds the -290 price a bit trappy.

Connor picks Bautista, noting that Lopez is a pure brawler who relies on hooks and has poor clinch and wrestling. Bautista has options: he can brawl, clinch, or wrestle, and he lands harder shots. Lopez's layoff and tendency to get hit clean make him vulnerable to Bautista's more technical striking and grappling transitions.

Daniel Levi picks Mario Bautista, having bet him at -225 for two units. He believes Bautista's activity, grit, and volume will overwhelm Benito Lopez, who is coming off a three-year layoff and has shown durability issues. He notes Lopez is live for a flashy finish but if that doesn't happen, Bautista will chip away and possibly get a finish of his own.

The host likes Bautista's overall game and believes he can grind Lopez on the ground. He notes Lopez's 3.5-year layoff and real estate career as concerns, but acknowledges Lopez's herky-jerky style could cause problems. He recommends using Bautista as a parlay piece and expects a finish inside the distance.

Paul picks Bautista, impressed by his performances outside the Trevin Jones fight. He notes Bautista's submission win over Kelleher showed improved grappling. He has no idea what to expect from Lopez after a three-year layoff and wasn't impressed by his past performances. Paul thinks Bautista could even get a submission, but the price on that prop (+600) is decent. He picks Bautista for the show.

The MMA Guru picks Mario Bautista, impressed by his last win over Brian Kelleher where he looked confident and crisp. He notes Bautista trains at MMA Lab and is 29, while Lopez returns after a two-year layoff. He predicts a first-round TKO, believing Bautista's recent form and confidence will overwhelm the rusty Lopez.

Angelo picks Brian Kelleher in a tough, close fight. He notes both fighters are similar busy strikers who can grapple, but gives the edge to Kelleher's experience and physicality at 135 pounds. His main worry is Kelleher's negative striking differential, but he believes if Kelleher brings the same grappling he showed against Kevin Crume or Domingo Pilarte, he gets the win. He expects a razor-thin decision.

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by decision. He highlights Bautista's significant size and reach advantages (3-inch height, 5-inch reach), superior striking, and underrated grappling. He notes that Kelleher has been submitted seven times and Bautista has submission skills, but expects the fight to stay standing where Bautista's youth and size will be decisive. He mentions Kelleher's durability (only one KO in 37 fights) but sees Bautista winning a decision.

Cody thinks Bautista is dynamic with good striking and wrestling. He notes Kelleher relies on takedowns and if he can't take Bautista down, he'll be out struck. He expects Bautista to win a decision.

Paul agrees with Cody, adding nothing to dispute.

Angelo picks Khalid Taha (though the matchup is Mario Bautista vs Jay Perrin, the transcript discusses Bautista vs Taha; likely a transcription error). He notes Taha's power and speed match up well against Bautista's volume, and Taha's cardio holds up. He was hoping for underdog odds but the line is essentially even.

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista confidently, noting Perrin is a grinder on short notice. He believes Bautista's takedown defense and striking are superior, and predicts a third round knockout, giving Perrin his first KO loss.

Cody picks Bautista, believing he will bounce back from his loss to Trevin Jones. He notes that Bautista is talented with a diverse skill set, and that Perrin lacks knockout power and is primarily a grappler. Cody thinks Bautista can win on the feet or on the ground, and that Perrin's only chance is a submission, which is unlikely. He expects Bautista to be around a -250 favorite.

Levi picks Bautista but is uncomfortable laying -350. He notes that Perrin is a solid but unspectacular fighter, and Bautista has good volume. However, he questions how Bautista will bounce back from his first knockout loss. Levi expects Bautista to win a decision.

Bautista is the much slicker striker and should keep the fight standing against Perrin, who relies on grinding takedowns. Bautista has 70%+ takedown defense and was preparing for a wrestler. Perrin is short notice but in shape; however, Bautista's striking advantage should lead to a finish. Bautista inside distance at +170 is the play.

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista over Trevin Jones, citing Bautista's superior striking and volume advantage. He notes that Jones is very hittable, absorbing 9.45 significant strikes per minute in his last fight, and that Bautista has a massive striking and volume edge. He acknowledges Jones is tough and has never been knocked out, so he predicts a decision win for Bautista.

Daniel picks Mario Bautista via decision, citing Bautista's higher volume and overall better skills. He notes that Trevin Jones' win over Timur Valiev was a lucky upset and that Bautista is the better fighter if he doesn't get caught with a big shot.

Bautista is an aggressive striker with great Muay Thai, using all eight limbs effectively. He has a height advantage and trains at MMA Lab with other fighters on the card. The host believes Bautista has Trevin Jones covered everywhere and predicts a first-round submission.

Daniel Levi picks Miles Johns by unanimous decision. He believes Johns' wrestling and power will make Bautista hesitant to throw volume. He expects Johns to mix takedowns with heavy shots and control the fight, capitalizing on Bautista's takedown defense issues.

The host picks Mario Bautista as a dog, citing his reach advantage, body kicks, and cardio. He believes Bautista can survive the first round and then outpoint Miles Johns in the later rounds, as Johns may fade. He notes that Bautista has good takedown defense and can get back up if taken down.