Aljamain Sterling

Angelo leans on Aljamain Sterling, citing his five-round experience and wrestling edge. He acknowledges that Youssef Zalal is the better striker but believes Sterling's wrestling will be superior, referencing Sterling's performance against Movsar Evloev. He notes that Sterling opened as a favorite but is now an underdog, and he encourages rewatching the Evloev fight to see Sterling's scrambling ability.

Big Brady picks Youssef Zalal over Aljamain Sterling. He notes Zalal's recent improvements and finishing ability, and believes Zalal's cardio and pace will be advantages in a five-round fight. He thinks Sterling may slow down as the fight progresses, and predicts Zalal wins by decision.

The host leans Zalal due to his output, aggression, pace, and volume, plus Sterling's decline and lack of power. However, he admits it's impossible to form a strong opinion because Zalal hasn't faced a wrestler like Sterling in years. He calls the odds fair coin-flip territory and passes on betting.

James picks Youssef Zalal based on stylistic matchup, believing Zalal's footwork and striking will cause problems for Sterling. He notes Zalal's recent improvements and age advantage, and predicts a finish inside the distance as Sterling gets desperate with takedowns.

Angelo is extremely confident in Aljamain Sterling, calling him a backpack grappler with developed striking and spectacular ground game. He dismisses Brian Ortega as not very good anymore, relying only on toughness. He expects Sterling to get takedowns and dominate on the ground, likely by decision due to Ortega's toughness. He says this is one of his most confident picks on the card.

Big Brady picks Aljamain Sterling to win by decision, citing Sterling's minute-winning ability on the feet and slick grappling. He notes that Sterling throws high volume and can take Ortega down, though he must watch for submissions. He believes Ortega is dangerous but hittable, and that Sterling will control the fight and win a decision.

Connor notes that Brian Ortega's game has disintegrated; he used to rely on durability but now gets hurt early in fights. He highlights that Ortega is a guard grappler but hasn't gotten a guard submission since 2017, and his wrestling is an afterthought. Sterling, on the other hand, is a much better wrestler who can dictate grappling exchanges and pile up volume on the feet. Connor is curious to see how Sterling handles Ortega's guard, but believes Sterling's positional grappling will keep him on top.

The host sees this as a fun grappling matchup, but thinks Sterling's advantage in wrestling and control will shut down Ortega's aggressive BJJ. He expects Sterling to grind out a boring fight and win on the scorecards.

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling to win by decision, citing Ortega's poor weight cut and zombie-like appearance at weigh-ins. He believes Sterling is more disciplined and professional, with better wrestling and positional grappling. He notes that Sterling can avoid Ortega's submission threats by pushing him against the cage and working from the back. He also thinks Sterling will do well on the feet, as Ortega has looked lost there at times.

Angelo picks Movsar Evloev confidently, stating Evloev is a better wrestler than Sterling and has superior striking. He dismisses Sterling's unorthodox striking as not intentionally effective. Angelo believes Evloev will take Sterling down at will and control the fight, similar to how he beat Arnold Allen. He expects a dominant performance.

Cody picks Sterling as a live underdog, citing his superior striking and wrestling. He notes Sterling's wins over top competition and believes his volume and back-taking ability will trouble Evloev. He expects a decision win for Sterling.

Connor picks Sterling because he believes Sterling has more tools to win if he can keep Evloev from wrestling. He notes that Evloev's pressure-based style can be shut down, and that Sterling's high-output striking and grappling are well-suited to a three-round fight. Connor also points out that Evloev has been walking a fine line and has been hurt in fights, while Sterling has shown improvement in his striking. He acknowledges that Sterling's cardio could be an issue but thinks over three rounds it might be enough.

Daniel believes Evloev is ahead in every area, with better grappling and striking. He criticizes Sterling's cardio, striking technique, and takedown entries. He notes Evloev's ability to survive submission attempts and his punching power, citing damage done to Arnold Allen.

Evloev's grappling ability and scrambling will keep him out of bad positions from Sterling. He can remain in dominant position or use defensive grappling to stay upright and touch up Sterling, who doesn't look comfortable striking. Evloev will put together a good body of work through grappling and striking to win on the scorecards.

Paul picks Sterling, calling it a lock. He highlights Sterling's technical skills, wrestling, and ability to win rounds. He thinks Evloev's takedowns won't be as effective and Sterling's striking advantage will be key. He expects a decision win.

The MMA Guru picks Evloev, believing he is too much for Sterling on the feet. He notes Evloev's improved standup, quicker punches, and ability to mix in takedowns. He trusts Evloev to win close rounds by shooting takedowns in the last 30 seconds to sway judges. He predicts a 29-27 decision with all rounds competitive.

Angelo slightly leans Aljamain Sterling due to Kattar's 18-month layoff and knee surgery, which could cause ring rust. He notes Sterling's takedown accuracy is poor but his relentless wrestling may be enough. He acknowledges Kattar is the better striker and if he stuffs takedowns, he wins. He calls it razor thin at 51-49.

Cody sees this as a live underdog spot. He notes Sterling's wrestling may not translate to 145 lbs, as his grappling diminishes against bigger opponents. Sterling has been reluctant to shoot takedowns, as seen against Sean O'Malley, and was knocked out. Kattar has 91% takedown defense in the UFC, stuffing attempts from wrestlers like Dan Ige and Josh Emmett. Cody believes Kattar's volume and power advantage will be key, and if he stuffs takedowns, he can outpoint Sterling. He also mentions Sterling's mentality of wanting to grind out boring fights, which may not impress judges in a hot Vegas crowd.

Connor also picks Kattar with a cloud of question marks. He notes that Sterling is a creative takedown artist but moving up in weight against a big featherweight. Connor points out that wrestlers moving up rarely succeed, and Kattar's defensive wrestling has been solid. He also mentions that Kattar is a slow starter but has power and size advantages.

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Calvin Kattar as a dog, citing his boxing advantage and takedown defense. He acknowledges Sterling's grappling threat but believes Kattar's size and striking can keep the fight standing. Vreeland is concerned about Kattar's injury layoff and Sterling's experience, but sees value in the underdog.

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He says it's a really good fight and he is excited to see how Aljamain Sterling bounces back from losing his bantamweight title now fighting at featherweight. He does not give a prediction.

Kattar holds a striking advantage and will touch up Sterling from distance. He will shut down takedown attempts and batter Sterling on the feet, winning a decision. Sterling's featherweight debut will be tough.

Paul picks Kattar as a dog, citing the weight change for Sterling and Kattar's takedown defense. He notes that few have tried to wrestle Kattar, and those who did (Dan Ige, Josh Emmett) had little success. Paul thinks if Sterling can't get takedowns, it becomes a competitive standup fight where Kattar has more power. He also mentions Sterling's recent knockout loss and his apparent mental state, questioning his motivation. Paul believes Kattar can keep the fight standing and win a decision or even get a knockout.

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling to win, citing Kattar's long layoff and leg injury. He believes Sterling's grappling will be too much for Kattar, especially targeting the injured rear leg with single legs. He expects Sterling to either finish or ride out a decision.

Angelo picks Aljamain Sterling, expecting his wrestling to take over as Sean O'Malley slows down in the later rounds. He notes that O'Malley gassed in a three-round fight and this is five rounds. He thinks Sterling could win by submission but acknowledges O'Malley's toughness and striking threat. He believes Sterling's range management and takedowns will be the difference.

Big Brady picks Sean O'Malley to win by fourth-round knockout, but admits he's terrified of Sterling's early grappling. He believes O'Malley can stuff takedowns and make Sterling work, causing Sterling to slow down. Brady notes O'Malley's striking advantage and power, and thinks if O'Malley survives the first few rounds, he can finish Sterling late.

Cody believes Sterling's grappling and wrestling are a notch above O'Malley's, and that Sterling will take O'Malley down, control him, and win rounds. He notes that O'Malley's camp lacks confidence, and that the line is inflated due to O'Malley's popularity. He expects Sterling to win by decision or submission, and likes the value at -260.

Daniel Levi leans toward Aljamain Sterling, acknowledging that Sterling should be favored but questioning whether the -255 price is warranted. He notes that Sterling has a clear path to victory if O'Malley has no answer when his back is taken, but if O'Malley can stretch the fight out, all bets are off. Levi mentions that Sterling's cardio fades in championship rounds due to massive weight cuts, which could open a late path for O'Malley. He also highlights that O'Malley's confidence and training with Taki Mendez might help him survive early grappling exchanges. Ultimately, Levi picks Sterling but is not fully confident, as he is intrigued by O'Malley's potential to survive and capitalize late.

Lucrative James picks Sean O'Malley, citing his distance management, footwork, and underrated jiu-jitsu. He believes Sterling's frequent weight cuts and recent activity may affect his performance. He sees value on O'Malley's moneyline and thinks O'Malley could get a knockout or win rounds on damage.

Sterling has a clear grappling advantage and should be able to take O'Malley down and control him. O'Malley's takedown defense has been a weakness, and Sterling's pressure and back-taking ability will be key. Sterling will likely win a decision rather than chase a finish, conserving energy. The decision prop is the best play.

Angelo picks Aljamain Sterling despite acknowledging asterisks on his title wins (illegal knee, split decision, TJ Dillashaw with one arm). He believes Sterling's size and activity will be decisive, as Sterling is a weight bully and has been fighting consistently while Cejudo returns after three years. Angelo is rooting for Cejudo but thinks the layoff and cardio questions are too much to overcome. He notes Cejudo's Olympic wrestling credentials but doubts he can take down the much larger Sterling.

Big Brady picks Sterling due to activity, youth, volume, and size advantages. He notes Cejudo's three-year layoff is a major concern, especially at lower weight classes. He acknowledges that if prime Cejudo shows up, he should win, but he's not confident in that. He mentions Sterling's reach and height advantages and that Sterling is in his prime training with Merab Dvalishvili. He says this is his least confident pick on the card and he's likely not betting it.

Cody acknowledges the massive question marks around Henry Cejudo's three-year layoff and whether he can replicate his past success. He gives Sterling advantages in speed, striking, grappling, and recent experience, but notes that Cejudo's constant pressure could exploit Sterling's tendency to fade in later rounds. He suggests playing Sterling live after the first round for a better price rather than betting pre-fight, and only as a small play if nothing else on the card jumps out.

Connor leans toward Cejudo, citing raw speed as a major factor and noting that Cejudo is the fastest fighter Sterling has faced since Marlon Moraes. He believes Cejudo's pressure and willingness to take risks will be effective, and that Cejudo will land the bigger shots. Connor acknowledges the age and ring rust concerns but is willing to take that flyer.

The host believes Henry Cejudo's speed, explosiveness, and defensive grappling will be too much for Aljamain Sterling. He notes that Cejudo is difficult to take down and control, and his calf kicks and power punching could be key. He expects Cejudo to win by knockout in the third or fourth round, assuming he hasn't regressed too much from the layoff.

Paul agrees with Cody's reasoning, noting that while Cejudo could return like Jon Jones or GSP, the three-year layoff is a major unknown. He highlights Sterling's seven-inch reach advantage and massive speed advantage from training with Rob Font. He says it's 'algermane or pass' for him but doesn't feel he has an edge betting-wise, so he likely won't place a bet.

The Guru leans toward Sterling, citing Cejudo's three-year layoff and age (36) as major factors. He believes Sterling's reach and height advantages will allow him to pick at Cejudo from range with front kicks and jabs. He also notes that Cejudo's wrestling may be neutralized by Sterling's body triangle, which can burn rounds. However, he admits it's a 50-50 fight and hopes Cejudo wins for entertainment, showing low confidence.

Angelo picks T.J. Dillashaw, surprised he is an underdog. He questions how Sterling can take Dillashaw down, noting only two people have ever done it. He praises Dillashaw's pace, pressure, and toughness, referencing the Sandhagen fight. He has a moneyline bet on Dillashaw at +150.

Big Brady picks Dillashaw to win by decision, despite concerns about his age (36) and decline. He believes stylistically it's a great matchup for Dillashaw: his takedown defense (86%) and get-up game are elite, and Sterling has only 30% takedown accuracy. He expects Dillashaw's pressure and cardio to overwhelm Sterling in the later rounds, winning the third, fourth, and fifth.

Cody thinks Sterling is the superior fighter overall but believes Dillashaw is live as an underdog. He notes Sterling's cardio fades in later rounds, while Dillashaw historically excels in rounds 4 and 5. Cody points out that Dillashaw has excellent takedown defense and wrestling, and that Sterling's takedowns may not hold him down. He sees Dillashaw winning the striking exchanges and possibly capitalizing on Sterling's fatigue.

Connor picks Dillashaw because he believes Dillashaw's wrestling and grappling defense will neutralize Sterling's best weapons. He notes that Dillashaw has never been held down or submitted, and that Sterling tends to gas when he can't impose his grappling. He also points out that Dillashaw's pressure and ability to take easy targets will wear on Sterling, similar to how Munoz gave him trouble.

Daniel Levi leans toward Aljamain Sterling to defend his belt, but is not confident. He respects Sterling's back control and jiu-jitsu, noting that even Petr Yan couldn't escape his backpack. However, he questions Sterling's durability and cardio, thinking he can wilt in later rounds. Levi also notes that T.J. Dillashaw is 37, coming off an ACL tear and a long layoff, and is no longer in his prime. He thinks Sterling's youth and confidence in his strengths give him the edge, but he has no bet on this fight because he doesn't have a strong read.

Dillashaw has solid wrestling and takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He is the better striker and can counter Sterling's entries. Sterling's best path is grappling, but Dillashaw's movement and pivots make him hard to catch. Dillashaw by decision at +300 or moneyline at +150 are both appealing.

Paul struggles to get to Sterling at -175, acknowledging Sterling's talent but questioning whether his grappling will work on Dillashaw. He notes Dillashaw's takedown defense historically, and that Sterling may not be able to hold him down. Paul mentions Dillashaw's strong later rounds and volume striking. He is picking Dillashaw for the show but is unsure about betting, possibly looking at round props.

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling over T.J. Dillashaw by submission. He argues Sterling is underrated, citing his wins over Yan, Sandhagen, and Munoz. He believes Dillashaw gives up his back and that Sterling will hurt him on the feet before securing a rear-naked choke in the second round.

Angelo picks Petr Yan by decision. He notes that Yan was winning the first fight and has better takedown defense (90%). He expects more of the same without the illegal knee, though he acknowledges Sterling's striking stats were close. He thinks Yan is safe for parlays.

Big Brady picks Petr Yan to win by fourth-round knockout. He references the first fight where Yan was winning before the illegal knee, and expects a similar pattern: Yan starts slow, builds into the fight, and takes over in later rounds. Yan's wrestling, cardio, and finishing ability are superior. Sterling may have a better game plan but Yan is the better five-round fighter.

Cody picks Yan but is worried about a potential upset. He thinks Sterling needs to fight an ultra-conservative game plan of jabbing and kicking, using the big octagon to avoid Yan's power. Cody notes Sterling's neck surgery and layoff, while Yan is active and experienced. He considers a draw possible if Sterling wins three rounds but gets 10-8'd in one. Ultimately, he sticks with Yan but with reservations.

Levi considers Yan the undisputed champion and a master of adjustments. He criticizes Sterling's durability and cardio, noting that Yan's pressure and reads will lead to a faster start this time. He expects Yan to crowd Sterling, negate his unorthodox kicks, and eventually finish by TKO. He has parlayed Yan with Ian Garry.

I think Yan gets stronger as the fight goes on and will find Sterling's chin. Sterling doesn't have the cardio to implement a 15-20 minute game plan. Yan will finish him late. I like Yan round 4/5/decision at -180 on FanDuel. The line is skewed due to public perception of Sterling.

Paul picks Yan, citing Yan's ability to calculate opponents and improve as the fight goes on, plus having four rounds of data from the first fight. He notes Sterling's wrestling was only 1 of 12 on takedowns and that he couldn't keep the pace for five rounds. Paul thinks Yan starts better this time and wins, though he doesn't love the -490 price.

Big Brady picks Petr Yan in a 50/50 fight, citing Yan's superior boxing, power, and takedown defense (88%). He doubts Sterling can take Yan down or hold him down, and notes Sterling lacks power. He predicts a decision win for Yan but is not confident enough to bet.

Daniel picks Petr Yan to defend his title, but is not fully confident. He believes Yan will outlast Sterling, winning the later rounds, but acknowledges Sterling's improvement and the possibility of a close decision. He notes Yan's discipline and power as key factors.

Sterling's volume and kicking game could outwork Yan, who sometimes gives away rounds. The host notes Yan's power and durability but thinks Sterling's cardio and grappling could be key. He predicts Sterling by decision.

Big Brady leans toward Cory Sandhagen, believing he has a clear advantage on the feet and can scramble back up if taken down. He notes Sandhagen's takedown defense is low but his scrambles are excellent. He expects a close decision and thinks Sandhagen's striking will be the difference. He acknowledges Sterling could win and says it's a tough fight to bet.

Daniel calls it a 50/50 fight but leans Sandhagen due to his length, volume, and ability to get up from takedowns. He notes Sandhagen's 27% takedown defense but creative get-ups, and worries about Sterling's body-lock pressure. He sees Sandhagen landing body shots and slowing Sterling, similar to what Munoz did, but acknowledges Sterling's improvements and output.

Cory Sandhagen has excellent movement, footwork, and ever-improving jiu-jitsu. He is a step ahead of his opponents and should be able to out-strike Aljamain Sterling, who is more unorthodox but less refined. Sandhagen's cardio is great, and he trains at altitude. Sterling may struggle to get takedowns, and Sandhagen's jiu-jitsu is good enough to avoid submissions. Sandhagen is a slight underdog but offers great value.