Brian Ortega

Angelo is extremely confident in Aljamain Sterling, calling him a backpack grappler with developed striking and spectacular ground game. He dismisses Brian Ortega as not very good anymore, relying only on toughness. He expects Sterling to get takedowns and dominate on the ground, likely by decision due to Ortega's toughness. He says this is one of his most confident picks on the card.

Big Brady picks Aljamain Sterling to win by decision, citing Sterling's minute-winning ability on the feet and slick grappling. He notes that Sterling throws high volume and can take Ortega down, though he must watch for submissions. He believes Ortega is dangerous but hittable, and that Sterling will control the fight and win a decision.

Connor notes that Brian Ortega's game has disintegrated; he used to rely on durability but now gets hurt early in fights. He highlights that Ortega is a guard grappler but hasn't gotten a guard submission since 2017, and his wrestling is an afterthought. Sterling, on the other hand, is a much better wrestler who can dictate grappling exchanges and pile up volume on the feet. Connor is curious to see how Sterling handles Ortega's guard, but believes Sterling's positional grappling will keep him on top.

The host sees this as a fun grappling matchup, but thinks Sterling's advantage in wrestling and control will shut down Ortega's aggressive BJJ. He expects Sterling to grind out a boring fight and win on the scorecards.

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling to win by decision, citing Ortega's poor weight cut and zombie-like appearance at weigh-ins. He believes Sterling is more disciplined and professional, with better wrestling and positional grappling. He notes that Sterling can avoid Ortega's submission threats by pushing him against the cage and working from the back. He also thinks Sterling will do well on the feet, as Ortega has looked lost there at times.

Angelo picks Diego Lopes confidently, having placed a full unit on him at -175. He dismisses concerns about Lopes fading in the third round of his last fight, attributing it to the chaos of multiple opponent and weight class changes on short notice. He believes Lopes is the better striker and grappler, and that Ortega's takedown accuracy is poor. He criticizes Ortega for missing weight and calls him a 'fat slob', expecting Lopes to steamroll him again.

Big Brady picks Lopes, citing his rapid improvement, youth, and hunger. He notes Lopes can win by decision or early finish, but expects Ortega's toughness to carry him to a decision loss. He predicts Lopes wins 29-28.

Daniel picks Diego Lopes but with low confidence, citing Lopes' tendency to fade in third rounds and Ortega's legendary third-round finishing ability. He thinks Lopes will win a controversial split decision by taking the first two rounds, but worries about Ortega's durability and Lopes' cardio. He notes Lopes' dangerous hooks and Ortega's ability to weather storms.

Daniel Vreeland picks Brian Ortega as a dog, citing his grappling advantage as the difference maker. He notes Ortega nearly submitted Alexander Volkanovski and controlled Yair Rodriguez on the mat. He believes Diego Lopez relies on scrambles, while Ortega catches people in scrambles. He trusts Ortega's grappling to hold up and likes the plus money.

Jeff Fox picks Diego Lopes because he is bigger, younger, and can grapple a bit. He took Lopes last time and is sticking with him, noting Lopes is on a roll.

The transcript does not discuss this fight. The host covers other fights but not Lopes vs Ortega.

Lopez's BJJ background will save him from the threat Ortega normally poses on the ground. Lopez also provides more threats in the striking realm. Expects Lopez to win inside the distance.

Angelo picks Ortega with low confidence, citing the first fight where Ortega was winning before his shoulder injury. He notes the elevation and crowd in Mexico could favor Rodriguez, but trusts his brain over his gut. He worries about Ortega's long layoff but believes he can squeak out a win.

Big Brady picks Yair Rodríguez to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Rodríguez has been more active and looked impressive against Josh Emmett, while Ortega has had a long layoff. He believes Rodríguez has the advantage on the feet with his kicks and power, and that Ortega is hittable. He doubts Ortega's wrestling will be effective, as Rodríguez stuffed takedowns in their first fight. He expects Rodríguez to dominate at range and eventually finish Ortega.

Cody picks Ortega, noting that in their first fight Ortega was winning before the shoulder injury. He believes Ortega's skills haven't digressed, his jiu-jitsu is second to none, and his wrestling is good enough to take down Rodriguez. He also mentions Ortega's ability to come back better after layoffs, as he did after the Holloway loss. He considers the plus 130 price good value.

The host recalls the first fight where Rodríguez kept Ortega at bay with striking and Ortega's only success was a clinch takedown that led to an injury. He believes Rodríguez needs to keep the fight standing, and even if it goes to the ground, Rodríguez has worked on his jiu-jitsu to defend and get back to his feet. He predicts Rodríguez will finish Ortega by the third round.

Angelo picks Yair Rodríguez, citing his dynamic striking and unpredictability. He believes Ortega's poor takedown accuracy (24%) will prevent him from getting the fight to the ground, and that Rodríguez's striking will be too much. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway despite the loss, and that he won't have ring rust this time. He placed a small moneyline bet at +137.

Big Brady picks Brian Ortega to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes that Ortega has improved his wrestling significantly, attempting many takedowns in recent fights against top competition like Holloway, Korean Zombie, and Volkanovski. He believes Ortega can take down Rodriguez, who has been taken down frequently in the past, and once on the ground, Ortega's submission game is elite. He acknowledges Rodriguez is the better striker but thinks Ortega's path to victory is through grappling.

Cody argues that Yair Rodríguez's ground game and wrestling are exploitable, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar and Jeremy Stephens where he was taken down easily. He notes that Brian Ortega has improved his wrestling, taking down elite fighters like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Cody believes Ortega will capitalize on Rodríguez's tendency to fall off-balance and secure a submission or dominant ground control.

Daniel Levi picks Yair Rodríguez to win as an underdog, emphasizing that Yair must keep the fight standing and avoid reckless spinning attacks that could lead to takedowns. He notes that Ortega is dangerous on the ground with submissions and has a history of comeback finishes, but believes Yair's discipline and striking can earn a decision. Levi mentions he will likely bet Yair at +155, viewing it as a dog-or-pass situation due to high variance.

Paul agrees with Cody that Ortega is the rightful favorite, citing Yair's overrated win over Korean Zombie where he was seconds from losing. He emphasizes that Ortega's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, and notes the line moving from -150 to -180. Paul suggests under 4.5 rounds and Ortega by submission as prop bets.

Angelo picks Volkanovski, citing his speed, footwork, and takedowns. He notes that Volkanovski is the better striker and wrestler, while Ortega is the better grappler. Angelo believes Volkanovski will keep the fight at range, use leg kicks, and piece up Ortega. He doesn't expect Volkanovski to shoot takedowns due to Ortega's guillotine.

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision. He believes Volkanovski is the better striker with superior volume and defense, and he will win the minutes of the fight. He acknowledges Ortega's danger on the ground and his power, but thinks Volkanovski can avoid submissions and outpoint him over five rounds.

Cody acknowledges Volkanovski's near-perfect UFC run, strong wrestling, cardio, and fight IQ, but is hesitant because Ortega is a worthy challenger with excellent jiu-jitsu that could neutralize Volkanovski's wrestling. He notes Ortega's striking improvements and durability, but ultimately leans Volkanovski due to his ability to find a way to win. He prefers to attack the over rounds rather than the moneyline.

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Volkanovski but is hesitant, acknowledging that MMA is not a logical sport. He notes that all tape, stats, and logic point to Volkanovski winning, but Ortega has the ability to hurt and finish opponents. Levi debunks the myth that Ortega can't throw volume, citing his high strike attempts against Renato Moicano, Max Holloway, and Korean Zombie. He is worried about Volkanovski being hurt, as seen in the Max Holloway fight, but ultimately goes with the champion.

Jacob picks Volkanovski, calling him very technical. He questions whether Ortega has improved his striking, particularly his jab and check left. Jacob thinks Volkanovski will keep distance and work leg kicks. He's rooting for Ortega but expects Volkanovski to win.

The host picks Alexander Volkanovski to retain his title via decision. He believes Volkanovski is a master at executing game plans and will use feints, leg kicks, and movement to stifle Ortega. He thinks Ortega's improved striking is overrated based on the Korean Zombie fight and that Volkanovski's submission defense will keep him safe. He expects a masterful performance and a decision win.

Paul is confident in Volkanovski, citing his strength, tactical fighting, reach advantage, and ability to push Ortega off when he tries to tie up. He references Volkanovski's wins over Max Holloway and Ortega's loss to Holloway where Ortega was badly beaten. He believes Volkanovski wins by decision and likes the over due to Ortega's durability.

Big Brady picks the Korean Zombie due to his superior striking defense and output, Ortega's poor striking defense (absorbs 7.36 strikes per minute), and the two-year layoff for Ortega. He believes the fight will stay standing because Ortega lacks wrestling to get takedowns, and Jung's takedown defense is excellent. He predicts a late stoppage (4th or 5th round).