UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer

Big Brady confidently picks Amanda Nunes by third-round knockout, believing her striking and power will overwhelm Spencer. He notes Spencer's striking is poor and she is overrated for lasting with Cyborg. He expects Nunes to finish early, though he acknowledges Spencer's toughness and top game could be a concern if it goes late. He sees no reason to pick against the GOAT.

Daniel sees a complete mismatch on the feet, with Nunes' striking far superior. He notes that people overlook Nunes' black belt, but she submitted Miesha Tate and has serious grappling credentials. He predicts a first-round knockout, comparing it to Nunes vs Rousey, and dismisses Spencer's path to victory via grappling because Nunes is also a black belt.

Amanda Nunes is the women's GOAT with power and a black belt in jiu-jitsu. Felicia Spencer is tough and has a grappling-heavy approach, but Nunes should be able to stuff takedowns and win on the feet. However, Spencer's durability and clinch game could make it a long fight. The over 1.5 rounds is a better bet than Nunes straight at -600.

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Nunes over Felicia Spencer. He dismisses Spencer's wins as coming against weak competition in a shallow women's featherweight division. He believes Nunes has too much power and skill on the feet, and that Spencer's only chance is to push Nunes against the cage, which he doubts she can do. He expects Nunes to dominate and win.

Big Brady picks Raphael Assunção by second-round knockout, citing Garbrandt's poor chin and recent knockout losses. He thinks Assunção has underrated power and will catch Garbrandt. He acknowledges Garbrandt is the better striker but cannot trust his chin. He notes Assunção is the underdog and sees value.

Daniel believes Assunção's counter-striking style is a bad matchup for Garbrandt, who tends to get reckless when hurt. He notes Garbrandt's chin is compromised and that Munoz chopped his legs with calf kicks, which may have led to his desperate rush. He sees Assunção winning a close decision or possibly catching Garbrandt with counters, and calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

Cody Garbrandt has heavy hands and great footwork, and working with Mark Henry should improve his game planning. Raphael Assunção is a counter-striker with leg kicks, but Garbrandt's power and movement can overcome that. Garbrandt's chin has been questioned, but if he fights disciplined, he can land a knockout. The under 2.5 rounds is also a good play.

The MMA Guru picks Raphael Assunção over Cody Garbrandt. He believes Garbrandt has an emotional issue that can't be trained out, leading to him getting KO'd again. He notes that Assunção has been training consistently and will crack Garbrandt with a big shot, finishing him in the first round by KO. He admits he previously picked Garbrandt but is done betting on him.

Big Brady leans toward Cory Sandhagen, believing he has a clear advantage on the feet and can scramble back up if taken down. He notes Sandhagen's takedown defense is low but his scrambles are excellent. He expects a close decision and thinks Sandhagen's striking will be the difference. He acknowledges Sterling could win and says it's a tough fight to bet.

Daniel calls it a 50/50 fight but leans Sandhagen due to his length, volume, and ability to get up from takedowns. He notes Sandhagen's 27% takedown defense but creative get-ups, and worries about Sterling's body-lock pressure. He sees Sandhagen landing body shots and slowing Sterling, similar to what Munoz did, but acknowledges Sterling's improvements and output.

Cory Sandhagen has excellent movement, footwork, and ever-improving jiu-jitsu. He is a step ahead of his opponents and should be able to out-strike Aljamain Sterling, who is more unorthodox but less refined. Sandhagen's cardio is great, and he trains at altitude. Sterling may struggle to get takedowns, and Sandhagen's jiu-jitsu is good enough to avoid submissions. Sandhagen is a slight underdog but offers great value.

The MMA Guru picks Cory Sandhagen over Aljamain Sterling. He believes Sandhagen's footwork and range will neutralize Sterling's counter-striking, and that Sandhagen's full camp gives him an advantage. He expects Sandhagen to pick Sterling apart with leg kicks and jabs, winning by unanimous decision. He also notes that Sterling's wide base makes him vulnerable to leg kicks.

Big Brady leans toward Anthony Rocco Martin, believing his leg kicks will be a huge factor and that Martin's BJJ can handle Magny's takedowns. He thinks Martin lands the more convincing shots and should win a close decision. He notes the line should be a pick'em and sees value on Martin as an underdog. He questions Magny's last win over a seemingly off-night opponent.

Daniel is high on Rocco Martin, citing his well-rounded skills, calf kicks, and submission ability. He believes Magny's win over Li Jingliang was overrated because Li gassed and threw no leg kicks. He expects Rocco to chop Magny down with calf kicks, mix in jabs, and threaten submissions if Magny shoots. He calls Rocco the more skilled fighter and predicts an upset.

Anthony Rocco Martin has great leg kicks, which are a key weapon against Neil Magny, who has shown vulnerability to leg kicks in the past (e.g., the Ponzinibbio fight). Martin's leg kicks can take away Magny's movement and power. Martin also has good hands and cardio. If he establishes the calf kick early, he can control the fight and win a decision.

The MMA Guru leans toward Neil Magny over Anthony Rocco Martin. He sees it as a 50/50 fight but favors Magny's range and point-scoring style, especially after his performance against Li Jingliang. He notes that Martin has been on a tear at welterweight but thinks Magny can outpoint him in a close decision, possibly split.

Big Brady confidently picks Sean O'Malley by first-round knockout, citing Wineland's poor striking defense and O'Malley's power and volume. He notes Wineland holds his hands low and is hittable, and O'Malley should exploit that. He thinks the fight stays on the feet and O'Malley finishes early. He considers the line too wide to bet but suggests looking at the KO prop.

Daniel sees a clear stylistic advantage for O'Malley because Wineland fights with his hands down and chin up, which plays into O'Malley's counter-striking. He recalls betting on Johnny Eduardo to beat Wineland for the same reason. He predicts O'Malley will knock Wineland out, likely in the first round, citing O'Malley's speed, accuracy, and creative striking.

Sean O'Malley has a significant reach and height advantage, and his movement and kicking should keep Eddie Wineland at range. Wineland is a heavy puncher but telegraphs his shots, and O'Malley's footwork should allow him to avoid danger. O'Malley will likely take a measured approach, working the outside before opening up. The over 1.5 rounds is also a good play.

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley over Eddie Wineland. He believes O'Malley is on a different level, too quick and rangy for the older Wineland. He predicts a first-round KO, noting that Wineland's win over Grigory Popov doesn't prove he's back. He also discusses O'Malley's marketability and the need for impressive finishes.

Big Brady picks Chase Hooper by first-round submission, confident that Hooper's elite BJJ will overwhelm Caceres once the fight hits the ground. He notes Caceres has poor takedown defense and has been submitted multiple times. He warns that Hooper's striking and wrestling are weak, but believes he can get the takedown. He suggests looking at the submission prop if it's plus money.

Daniel is not sold on Hooper's striking defense but acknowledges his slick jiu-jitsu and top game. He notes that Caceres has been submitted multiple times and that Hooper's path to victory is on the ground. He expects Hooper to find a submission somewhere along the way, but admits it's sketchy and that he will look to fade Hooper soon.

Alex Caceres is a tough veteran with good submission defense and refined striking. Chase Hooper is young and still developing; his striking is awkward and his strength is lacking, which has prevented him from finishing submissions. Caceres should have the advantage on the feet and be able to defend Hooper's grappling. At plus money, Caceres offers value.

The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper over Alex Caceres. He criticizes Caceres' stand-up as flashy but vulnerable to takedowns, and expects Hooper to catch a kick, take him down, and get a submission in the first round. He also expresses personal dislike for Caceres, calling him arrogant.

Big Brady leans toward Ian Heinisch, believing the matchup favors him stylistically. He thinks Heinisch can close the distance, land takedowns, and avoid Meerschaert's BJJ. He notes Meerschaert's reach advantage and improved striking but feels Heinisch's wrestling and pressure will earn a close decision. He acknowledges Meerschaert is underrated.

Daniel finds it hard to cap Meerschaert because he often wins despite looking slow and unathletic. He sees this as a 50/50 fight and leans toward Meerschaert as the dog, citing his veteran savvy, jiu-jitsu black belt, and ability to capitalize on mistakes. He acknowledges Heinisch's cardio and will but thinks Meerschaert can snatch a submission or win a decision.

Ian Heinisch has great cardio and submission defense, which should help him avoid Gerald Meerschaert's submissions. Heinisch has the speed advantage and should be able to get in and out. However, his output has been a concern in past fights. If he lets his hands go, he can outpace Meerschaert. The pick is Heinisch, but not confident enough to bet.

The MMA Guru picks Ian Heinisch over Gerald Meerschaert. He questions the quality of Meerschaert's recent wins, noting that Trevin Giles and Deron Winn are overrated. He believes Heinisch's takedown defense and power will be too much, and that Heinisch will win by decision, becoming a mainstay in the rankings.

Big Brady picks Cody Stamann confidently, expecting him to use his wrestling to control Kelleher. He notes Kelleher is dangerous off his back but Stamann's wrestling should neutralize submissions. He predicts a 30-27 decision, though he acknowledges Kelleher's cardio and finishing ability could make it a sweat. He sees Stamann as a parlay piece.

Daniel praises Stamann's discipline, fundamentals, and takedown ability, noting he handed Song Yadong his first loss. He believes Kelleher's wins over lower-level competition don't compare to Stamann's level. He expects Stamann to win a decision by controlling range, using blast doubles, and avoiding Kelleher's guillotine. He calls Stamann underrated and says he earns respect with each fight.

Cody Stamann has better cardio, wrestling, and fight IQ than Brian Kelleher. He can mix his wrestling with striking and take Kelleher down, where he can control him. Kelleher's only paths to victory are a knockout or a guillotine, but Stamann has good head movement and a decent chin. Stamann should implement his game plan and win a decision or possibly get a late finish.

The MMA Guru picks Cody Stamann over Brian Kelleher. He believes Stamann is a top-five worthy bantamweight who has only lost to the best, while Kelleher was dominated by Montel Jackson and Hunter Azure. He predicts Stamann will eventually get a submission finish in round three, though he admits he's rooting for Kelleher.

Big Brady picks Charles Byrd by first-round submission, confident that Byrd's superior ground game will overcome Pitolo's one-dimensional striking. He notes Pitolo hits hard but has no ground game, and Byrd should take him down early to avoid getting knocked out. He acknowledges Byrd's age and recent losses but believes he is the better fighter overall.

Daniel is not confident in Byrd, calling him basic and old, but still leans toward him as the more skilled fighter. He notes Pitolo is undefeated at 185 but has been knocked out badly at 170. He says he would not lay -170 on Byrd and that nothing would surprise him, but ultimately picks Byrd by decision.

Charles Byrd is a grappler who will look to take the fight to the ground, where he has a submission threat. Maki Pitolo has gas tank issues and has been submitted before. If Pitolo doesn't get a knockout in the first round, he tends to fade, and Byrd can exploit that. Byrd's takedowns and top control should wear on Pitolo. Byrd is a solid play at -170.

The MMA Guru picks Charles Byrd over Maki Pitolo. He notes that Byrd was doing well against Darren Stewart before getting KO'd, while Pitolo is a glider coming off a loss to Callum Potter. He expects Byrd to use his size advantage to bully Pitolo against the cage and win by decision.

Big Brady leans toward Alex Perez, believing Formiga is on the decline. He gives the striking edge to Perez due to power, but acknowledges Formiga's wrestling advantage. He thinks Perez can stop takedowns and keep the fight standing, winning a close decision. He notes Formiga has been knocked out before, but Perez's low finish rate makes a KO unlikely.

Daniel acknowledges Formiga's superior resume and skill, but notes he has shown signs of decline and lacks knockout power. He thinks Perez is more hungry and aggressive, but Formiga's grappling and underrated stand-up (calf kicks, counters) could be the difference. He slightly edges Formiga as the more skilled guy, but wouldn't be surprised if Perez wins.

Jussier Formiga is a high-level jiu-jitsu player with excellent back-taking ability and improving striking. Alex Perez's strength is wrestling, but Formiga is comfortable off his back and has better jiu-jitsu. Perez may be forced to grapple, which plays into Formiga's world. Formiga's cardio is good, and he showed in the Moreno fight that he can still get sweeps and submissions. At plus money, Formiga is a live dog.

The MMA Guru picks Jussier Formiga over Alex Perez. He believes Formiga's grappling will be too much for Perez, as Formiga has beaten top guys like Deiveson Figueiredo and had a close fight with Brandon Moreno. He doubts Perez's ability to keep Formiga off him for 15 minutes and expects Formiga to control the fight with takedowns and clinch work, winning a boring decision.

Big Brady confidently picks Alonzo Menifield, citing Clark's poor performance against Ryan Spann and his tendency to get finished. He believes Menifield will impose his physicality and finish Clark early, likely in the first round. He notes Clark's only chance is takedowns, but doubts Clark will execute.

Daniel dismisses the myth that Menifield can't grapple, praising his underhook instincts and physicality. He notes Menifield has developed submissions and ground-and-pound on the regional scene. He criticizes Clark's mentality and tendency to fold under pressure, predicting Menifield will knock him out in the first round. He mentions the line moved due to public betting on Clark, but he's confident in Menifield.

Alonzo Menifield has huge power and is a top-five power puncher in the division. Devin Clark has a suspect chin and has been finished multiple times. Menifield's path to victory is a knockout, likely in the first round. However, Clark has good wrestling and cardio, and if he can survive the early onslaught, he could take over. The fight is a pass for betting, but the pick is Menifield by first-round KO.

The MMA Guru picks Alonzo Menifield over Devin Clark. He believes Menifield is the younger, more rapidly evolving fighter with knockout power, as seen in his wins over Paul Craig and Vinicius Moreira. He notes that Clark is coming off a KO loss and that Menifield has been in training camp, giving him an edge. He is confident in Menifield's potential and expects him to get the job done.

Big Brady picks Herbert Burns but is hesitant due to Evan Dunham's layoff and age. He notes Dunham has good striking and BJJ, but the two-year layoff and recent losses make it hard to pick him. He expects a close fight with Burns winning by decision, possibly hurting Dunham to the body.

Daniel believes Burns has caught up to where he can beat a veteran like Dunham. He highlights Burns' wrestling entries, ten-year black belt in jiu-jitsu, and developing power in his striking. He notes Dunham retired for a reason and has shown vulnerability to body shots. He predicts Burns will finish Dunham, possibly by submission or body shots.

Evan Dunham is a high-level jiu-jitsu player with great takedown defense and refined striking. He should be able to keep the fight on the feet and pick apart Herbert Burns, who is wild and chaotic. Dunham's hands have looked good, and he can put together combinations ending with kicks. Even if the fight goes to the ground, Dunham is safe due to his own jiu-jitsu. The only concern is the layoff, but at plus money he is a steal.