UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot

Angelo picks Manon Fiorot but is not very confident. He cites Fiorot's striking power and 91% takedown defense, contrasting with Blanchfield's poor takedown attempts in her last fight. He worries that Blanchfield's toughness and forward pressure could trouble Fiorot. He notes underdogs have won 66% of main events in 2024.

Big Brady picks Manon Fiorot to win by decision, taking the underdog. He sees it as a close fight that likely goes the distance. He favors Fiorot in the striking early, but worries about Blanchfield's pressure and grappling later. He notes Blanchfield's takedown accuracy is low and Fiorot's takedown defense is elite. Brady expects a split decision where Fiorot does better work early.

Cody sees Fiorot as a live underdog due to her takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes Blanchfield's recent struggles with takedowns (0 for 14 against Santos) and believes Fiorot can keep the fight standing and outpoint her. However, he admits it's more of a price play and not a high-confidence pick.

Daniel Vreeland picks Manon Fiorot at plus money, stating he bet her at +170. He believes Fiorot is very disciplined, won't get carried away, and can frustrate Blanchfield by staying on the feet and using her movement. He notes that Fiorot has survived takedowns before (e.g., against Jennifer Maia) and that Blanchfield's wrestling isn't elite. He acknowledges Blanchfield's submission threat but thinks Fiorot can avoid being finished and win a decision.

James sees this as a 50/50 fight due to the unknowns of whether Blanchfield can get takedowns against Andrade. He notes Blanchfield's grappling is elite but her striking defense is poor, while Andrade has one-punch power and strong clinch work. He leans Blanchfield because of her youth and potential to get takedowns in later rounds, but is not confident. He mentions Blanchfield at +150 offers value.

Fiorot's takedown defense and movement are key; she has only been controlled for 1:40 in 77 minutes of UFC cage time. Blanchfield's takedown success has plummeted (2 of 22 in last 4 fights), and she gets hit often. Fiorot's lateral movement and ability to pivot off Blanchfield's entries should allow her to land straight shots and avoid prolonged grappling. The fight resembles Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman where the wrestler fails on takedowns and eats damage. Fiorot by decision is the most likely outcome, though the last two rounds could be close.

Paul agrees with Cody that Fiorot is a live underdog, citing Blanchfield's takedown struggles and Fiorot's technical striking. He mentions the close fight with Rose Namajunas as a reference but admits he doesn't feel great about it, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation.

The host picks Erin Blanchfield to win by decision. He believes Blanchfield's takedown attempts and aggression will be key, especially in a five-round fight. He notes that Fiorot may struggle to stuff takedowns over five rounds and that Blanchfield is willing to shoot repeatedly. He also sees opportunities for Blanchfield to take Fiorot's back when Fiorot turns after combinations. He predicts a 49-46 decision, with Blanchfield losing one round.

Angelo picks Vicente Luque despite admitting he has been a Luque hater. He notes Luque's impressive wrestling against RDA and his overall skills. He acknowledges Joaquin Buckley is dangerous and funny but thinks Luque's mix of striking and wrestling will give him the edge.

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley to win by second-round knockout. He believes prime Luque would destroy Buckley, but Luque has taken significant damage, suffered a brain bleed, and admitted to being scared to get hit in his last fight. Brady thinks Luque's durability is compromised and Buckley's power will finish him.

Cody likes Luque's volume and pace, believing he can outwork Buckley who tends to fade. He notes Luque's wrestling as a new wrinkle but thinks the path to victory is through pressure and output. He acknowledges the risk of Buckley's power but sees Luque as the better fighter at even money.

Daniel Vreeland picks Joaquin Buckley at +124, continuing his fade of Vicente Luque. He cites Luque's history of taking massive damage, the brain bleed, and his struggles against southpaws. He believes Buckley's footwork, speed, and southpaw stance will frustrate Luque, and that Luque's chin may be compromised. He acknowledges Luque's power but thinks Buckley can avoid the left hook and win a decision or late finish.

Luque is more skilled and talented than Buckley, with a nasty leg kick that can sap Buckley's power. He may mix in grappling to nullify Buckley's speed and power advantage. Luque's veteran experience and ability to pressure in later rounds should be decisive. Buckley is a power puncher but Luque can implement leg kicks and potentially finish inside two rounds. The minus 115 line is a steal for a fighter of Luque's caliber.

Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Luque's wrestling from the RDA fight and his overall well-rounded game. He thinks Luque can take Buckley down and remove his explosive striking, making him a solid play at even money.

The host picks Vicente Luque to win by KO in round two. He believes Buckley will get overconfident and throw wild hooks, while Luque will cover up and counter with hooks from his guard. He notes Luque's tight guard and ability to take a punch. He predicts Luque will crack Buckley on the chin and put him away.

Angelo picks Bruno Silva despite being a Chris Weidman fan. He notes Silva hits hard and is tough, while Weidman looked old and slow in his last fight after a broken leg. He thinks this is one of Weidman's last winnable fights but believes Silva will get it done. He does not bet because he would be rooting against Weidman.

Big Brady picks Bruno Silva to win by first-round knockout. He acknowledges Weidman has a path via submission due to Silva's poor ground game, but believes Silva's power will be too much for the aging Weidman, who has been knocked out multiple times. Brady notes Weidman hasn't had a good performance since 2017 and expects Silva to land a knockout.

Cody believes Weidman is completely shot, citing his age, injuries, and poor recent performances. He thinks Silva's power and aggression will overwhelm Weidman early, possibly by leg kicks or overhand rights. He notes Silva's cardio issues but expects a finish before that becomes a factor.

Daniel Vreeland picks Bruno Silva, citing his 20-0 knockout ratio and Weidman's age, leg break, and history of getting knocked out. He believes Weidman will fatigue after early takedown attempts and that Silva will land a knockout. He notes Silva's submission losses but thinks Weidman won't be able to submit him due to Silva's ability to survive and get back up.

Weidman is 1-4 in his last five, aging, and his body can't absorb damage like before. Silva has knockout power and should time Weidman's entries for an uppercut or explosion. Weidman may get a takedown or two but lacks finishing ability at this stage. Silva by knockout in the second or third rounds is likely, but the minus 285 line is too wide to bet.

Paul picks Silva but without much enthusiasm, calling Weidman 'beyond beyond dead.' He notes Silva's inconsistent performances and high price (-260) but sees no reason to back Weidman given his decline.

The host picks Bruno Silva to win by TKO, citing Weidman's age (39), compromised leg, and lack of finishing potential on the feet. He believes Silva's low kicks will be effective and that Weidman will be hesitant. He predicts a TKO, though he initially considered a decision.

Angelo is very confident in Nursulton Ruziboev, calling him a 'grappling beast' who will ragdoll Sedriques Dumas. He criticizes Dumas as 'kind of terrible' and notes that even Cody Brundage took him down. He believes Ruziboev should be the biggest favorite on the card and recommends betting now before the line moves.

Big Brady picks Nursulton Ruziboev to win by first-round submission. He highlights Ruziboev's size (6'5" at middleweight), power, and dangerous submission game, noting he has many rear-naked choke wins. He criticizes Dumas for poor performances, getting hurt by lesser opponents, and questionable cardio. Brady believes Ruziboev is a level above everywhere and will submit Dumas when the fight hits the mat.

Cody acknowledges Ruziboev's first-round finishing ability but worries about his cardio if the fight goes past the first. He notes Dumas's poor life choices and questionable cardio but thinks Ruziboev's durability and skill advantage should carry him, though the price (-260) is unappealing.

Daniel Vreeland picks Nursulton Ruziboev, citing his massive experience (over 40 fights) and finishing ability. He notes Dumas is still green, has been submitted before (by Josh Fremd), and may have distractions outside the cage. He thinks Ruziboev will expose Dumas on the ground, though he doesn't advocate betting at -250.

Ruziboev has a height advantage and aggressive striking, but Dumas has a 3-inch reach advantage. Ruziboev's experience (42 fights) and recent camp at Marquez MMA in Philly are positives. Dumas is still unproven; his wins came against Cody Brundage (who jumped guillotine) and Abdul Razak Alhassan (coming off long layoff). Ruziboev's aggressiveness should be the difference, but he must avoid leaving his neck open for a choke. Prediction: Ruziboev inside the distance.

Paul is high on Ruziboev, calling him a 'monster' and noting his size, power, and training in Philly. He contrasts Ruziboev's focused Instagram with Dumas's partying and legal issues, believing Ruziboev will starch him early.

The host picks Nursulton Ruziboev, criticizing Sedriques Dumas' wins as coming against opponents with low fight IQ. He believes Ruziboev is more experienced and has a higher fight IQ. He predicts Ruziboev will win, possibly by using his grappling and striking advantage.

Angelo leans Bill Algeo but is not very confident. He highlights Algeo's karate-style striking, high volume, and BJJ black belt, but notes he gets hit a lot. He thinks Kyle Nelson's forward pressure could be tricky. He suggests the over 2.5 rounds as a safer bet, expecting a decision.

Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by third-round finish. He notes Algeo is a fast-paced striker who lands over six significant strikes per minute, and expects him to push a pace that Kyle Nelson cannot keep up with. Brady believes Nelson's recent fights have been slow and boring, but Algeo will force him to work and break him late.

Cody likes Algeo's volume, cardio, and durability, believing he can outwork Nelson. He notes Nelson's improved cardio but thinks Algeo's pace and output will be too much, likely winning by decision or late finish.

Daniel Vreeland picks Bill Algeo, citing his high volume and pace. He thinks Algeo's pressure and output will overwhelm Nelson, who has a history of gassing. He notes Nelson's recent style change but believes Algeo won't give him space to rest. He predicts Algeo by decision or late finish.

Algeo is on a 4-1 run with unorthodox movement and effective leg kicks. He picks opponents apart from distance and has solid BJJ. Nelson has improved but still relies on crashing the pocket; Algeo's lateral movement and counters should cause Nelson to chase and slow down. Algeo by decision is likely, with potential for a late finish.

Paul compares this fight to Algeo's win over Corano, expecting Algeo to overwhelm Nelson with volume. He mentions a potential round 3 prop for Algeo but sees decision as most likely.

The host picks Bill Algeo, calling him underrated and tricky. He likes Algeo's win over Joe Anderson Brito and his performance against Andre Fili. He thinks Algeo has more options and will 'weird' Nelson with unorthodox techniques. He predicts a decision win for Algeo.

Angelo is confident Chidi Njokuani will win, citing his speed, power, and reach advantage. He dismisses Rhys McKee as one-dimensional ('tall'). He worries about Njokuani's three-fight losing streak and tendency to get caught after dominating, but believes he should win.

Big Brady picks Chidi Njokuani to win by first-round knockout. He notes Njokuani is a dangerous striker with power, while McKee is very hitable with poor striking defense. Brady expects Njokuani to land heavy shots early and finish McKee, though he mentions McKee's toughness and ability to survive. He also suggests a live bet on McKee if he survives the first round.

Cody is fading Njokuani due to his weight cut to 170, age, and cardio issues. He believes McKee's volume, durability, and pressure will overwhelm Njokuani, especially if the fight goes past the first round. He sees McKee as a live dog and even likes a round 3 TKO prop.

Daniel Vreeland picks Rhys McKee, citing his durability and grit. He notes Njokuani is on a losing streak, moving down to welterweight for the first time in years, and has cardio and mental questions. He thinks McKee can absorb Njokuani's early offense and take over as the fight goes on, possibly by submission or late finish.

Njokuani drops to welterweight at 35, which is a concern, but he has a reach advantage and slick Muay Thai. McKee relies on volume but has been hurt by power punchers. Njokuani's straight shots and speed could break McKee's chin. However, the weight cut is a question mark; final decision after weigh-ins. Prediction: Njokuani by knockout.

Paul agrees with Cody's concerns about Njokuani's weight cut and lack of wrestling. He notes McKee's ability to absorb damage and keep up volume, making him a solid underdog play. He also likes the round 3 prop.

The host picks Chidi Njokuani, despite wanting to pick Rhys McKee. He thinks Njokuani is more explosive and powerful, and that McKee may have flashbacks to fighting larger opponents like Khamzat Chimaev. He predicts Njokuani will win by KO in the first round.

Angelo picks Jamall Emmers but is hesitant due to the odds and Nate Landwehr's forward pressure. He notes Emmers is a calculated striker with good takedown defense, but Landwehr's relentless pressure could cause problems. He goes back and forth on whether Emmers should be a 2-to-1 favorite, ultimately sticking with Emmers but not fully confident.

Big Brady picks Jamall Emmers to win by decision. He notes Emmers has a reach advantage, good striking with leg kicks, and elite takedown defense. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Emmers is the better striker, though Landwehr is tough and can eat shots. Brady sees a competitive decision win for Emmers.

Cody picks Emmers despite being a fan of Landwehr, citing Emmers' speed, lateral movement, and wrestling. He worries about Landwehr's durability and recklessness, and thinks Emmers can pick him apart from the outside. He also notes a potential weight cut issue for Emmers but still favors him.

Daniel Vreeland picks Jamall Emmers but with hesitation due to the price (-220). He acknowledges Emmers' superior skills and athleticism but worries about his mental consistency and decision-making (e.g., leg lock exchange with Pat Sabatini). He thinks Emmers should win if he stays focused, but notes Landwehr's pressure and durability could make it tough. He prefers to pass or look at props.

Emmers has speed, agility, and wrestling but has shown poor fight IQ (e.g., striking with Julian Rosa after grappling success). Landwehr's constant forward pressure and durability could trouble Emmers. If Emmers uses his wrestling and counters, he should win, but his tendency to brawl is a risk. Prediction: Emmers by decision, but not a confident bet.

Paul is tempted by Landwehr's dog mentality and plus money, but acknowledges Emmers' skill advantage. He makes a shoey bet with Cody, taking Landwehr at 2-to-1 odds, showing some faith in Landwehr's ability to out-tough Emmers.

The host picks Jamall Emmers to knock out Nate Landwehr in the first round. He believes Landwehr's chin is suspect, citing his fights against Austin Lingo and David Onama where he got wobbled. He thinks Emmers is underrated, with wins over quality opponents, and has the reach, speed, and patience to land a clean shot. He predicts a first-round TKO.

Angelo picks Loopy Godinez, believing she is better everywhere, including wrestling. He notes Virna Jandiroba is a grinder with a one-dimensional game plan of shooting takedowns. He thinks Godinez's striking improvements and defensive wrestling will be enough to win, though he acknowledges Jandiroba's relentless takedown attempts could be a problem.

Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by decision, but expresses concern about her fight IQ. He believes Godinez should keep the fight standing to avoid Jandiroba's dangerous BJJ, but worries she might wrestle unnecessarily. He thinks Godinez is the much better striker and should stuff takedowns, but is not fully confident due to her past poor decisions.

Cody believes Godinez is the better boxer and wrestler, with superior cardio and durability. He thinks Jandiroba's one-dimensional grappling won't be enough, and even if she gets takedowns, Godinez will survive and win rounds with striking volume.

Daniel Vreeland picks Loopy Godinez, citing her superior striking, power, and athleticism. He thinks she can keep the fight standing and use a sprawl-and-brawl game plan to avoid Jandiroba's dangerous jiu-jitsu. He notes Jandiroba's willingness to stand and trade, which plays into Godinez's hands. He predicts Godinez by decision.

Godinez has improved striking and wrestling advantage. Jandiroba's hands are poor; she got outboxed by McKenzie Dern and Amanda Lemos. Godinez should keep the fight standing and land punches, potentially earning her first UFC knockout. The plus 750 KO prop is worth a sprinkle. Godinez controls pace and location.

Paul sees Godinez as the more versatile fighter, able to win on the feet or with wrestling. He notes Jandiroba's aging and limited striking, and expects Godinez to outwork her over three rounds, likely by decision.

The host picks Loopy Godinez, stating he never picks Virna Jandiroba. He believes Godinez can keep the fight on the feet and has a boxing and grit advantage. He thinks Godinez's grappling is good enough to defend takedowns and that she will win a decision, possibly 29-28. He notes that close decisions tend to go against Jandiroba.

Angelo is confident Julio Arce will win, citing his solid striking, volume, and 94% takedown defense. He criticizes Herbert Burns for quitting in his last fight and doubts Burns can get takedowns. However, he avoids betting due to Arce's long layoff and steep -550 price.

Cody is wary of Arce's layoff, weight class move, and injuries, but still picks him because Burns is unreliable and quits when his early submission doesn't work. He thinks Arce's volume and durability will carry him, but the -400 price is unappealing.

Daniel Vreeland picks Julio Arce but calls it a dog-or-pass situation at -400. He acknowledges Arce's solid striking and takedown defense but notes Burns' elite jiu-jitsu and motivation. He thinks Burns could get an early submission if Arce makes a mistake, but Arce is the safer pick. He won't lay the price.

Arce is a talented Muay Thai striker with head kicks and combinations. Burns has a terrible gas tank and fades if he doesn't finish early. Arce should stay at distance, land pot shots, and work the body. Burns will present early danger but Arce will take over in the second and third rounds, finishing via TKO. Prediction: Arce round 3.

Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting Burns' history of quitting and Arce's potential advantages. He doesn't love the price but sees Arce as the likely winner.

The host picks Julio Arce to survive an early storm from Herbert Burns and then take over. He believes Burns will go for a takedown early, but Arce will work his way out. Once things don't go Burns' way, he expects Burns to break and fade. He predicts a late second-round TKO for Arce.

Angelo leans Dennis Buzukja, praising his wrestling and striking. He notes Connor Matthews is durable and can snatch submissions in scrambles. He is hesitant because Buzukja has back-to-back UFC losses and hasn't proven himself yet. He holds off on betting.

Cody picks Matthews due to Buzukja's low confidence, poor recent performances, and lack of power. He thinks Matthews' wrestling and volume will be enough, though he acknowledges the fight is close and the crowd could influence judges.

Daniel Vreeland picks Connor Matthews, citing his better output and stats in the UFC. He notes Buzukja has low output and hasn't impressed, while Matthews has shown more volume and takedowns. He admits low confidence but thinks the dog has value.

Buzukja is more talented all-around with better experience. Matthews is physical but has a questionable gas tank and struggles if takedowns are stuffed. Buzukja can counter effectively and mix in wrestling to wear on Matthews. The minus 125-130 line is reasonable. Prediction: Buzukja by decision.

Paul tails Cody, citing Buzukja's struggles and Matthews' hunger. He notes Matthews' takedown numbers and believes he can outwork Buzukja, though he admits the fight is a toss-up.

The host picks Connor Matthews, believing he is better than Dennis Buzukja. He liked Matthews' performance on the Contender Series, where he grappled hard and established dominant positions. He criticizes Buzukja's previous losses, saying he looked out of his depth. He thinks Matthews' grappling will be a factor and that he is closer to his prime.

Angelo leans Ibo Aslan, noting he beat Anton Turkalj in their first fight before gassing. He thinks if Aslan has improved his gas tank, he wins easily. He mentions Aslan has knocked out four opponents since their last fight, while Turkalj has been finished twice. He has a half-unit bet on Aslan at -115.

Cody thinks Aslan has improved since their first fight, with better cardio and training. He believes Aslan's power and leg kicks will be too much for Turkalj, who has been knocked out recently and has poor wrestling entries.

Daniel Vreeland picks Ibo Aslan by knockout, citing his revenge motivation and physicality. He notes Aslan was winning their first fight before gassing and getting submitted, and believes Aslan has improved his pacing. He thinks Turkalj takes too much damage and will be overwhelmed early.

Aslan showed discipline in his Contender Series win, waiting for the knockout. He has improved since his loss to Turkalj years ago. Turkalj is on a 3-fight losing streak and has been knocked out by Tyson Pedro. Aslan's power should finish Turkalj early, but if Turkalj gets a takedown, he could submit Aslan. The under 1.5 rounds at -125 is the preferred play, as both have finishing ability inside a round and a half.

Paul picks Aslan based on the first fight where Aslan dominated before gassing. He thinks Aslan has made adjustments and will finish Turkalj early, though he acknowledges the cardio risk.

The host picks Ibo Aslan, liking his momentum and four-fight finish streak. He notes Aslan's good low kicks and hands, and that Turkalj has looked poor in the UFC, especially against Tyson Pedro. He believes Turkalj's hands drop when pressured, leading to a KO. He predicts Aslan wins, possibly by KO.

Angelo slightly leans Andre Petroski, believing he is the better wrestler and more dangerous striker. He notes Petroski has looked poor in his last two fights but thinks he can win here. He warns that if Petroski loses, he should be cut and find a new gym.

Cody is high on Malkoun's relentless wrestling and cardio, believing he will drown Petroski with takedowns and ground pressure. He expects a finish via TKO or submission as Petroski gasses, and even makes a shoey bet on Malkoun winning inside the distance.

Daniel Vreeland picks Jacob Malkoun, citing his pace, durability, and ability to push the fight. He notes Petroski has a history of fading and being broken by pressure (e.g., Brian Battle). He thinks Malkoun's wrestling and cardio will overwhelm Petroski as the fight goes on, leading to a decision or late finish.

Malkoun's relentless pace and pressure will wear down Petroski, who has cardio issues and needs an early finish. Malkoun chains takedowns and stays busy, while Petroski slows in later rounds. Malkoun should dominate the second and third rounds, winning a decision. Petroski's submission threat is real early, but Malkoun's movement and never-settle style should avoid bad positions.

Paul expects Malkoun to win by decision, citing his wrestling volume and Petroski's tendency to gas. He plans to bet Malkoun by decision at plus money, seeing it as a reliable play.

The host picks Jacob Malkoun to win, citing that both fighters have similar styles but Petroski is more explosive and slows down more. He believes Malkoun's volume and output, both in strikes and takedowns, will make the difference. He predicts a third-round finish or a decision win for Malkoun.

Angelo leans Caolán Loughran despite criticizing his debut. He thinks Loughran's wrestling and constant leg-diving can grind out a win against Angel Pacheco, who lacks one-punch power. He notes Loughran's takedown accuracy is poor but believes he can keep Pacheco against the cage. He avoids betting at -300.

Cody likes Loughran's physical strength, wrestling, and youth. He thinks Loughran will take Pacheco down and control him, noting Pacheco's lack of takedown defense and recent close fight with Danny Silva.

Loughran has relentless grappling and pressure, training at Team Kaobon with Mike Grundy. Pacheco showed heart but was outclassed on the Contender Series; his competition level is low. Loughran should overpower Pacheco in the clinch and on the ground, controlling the fight. Pacheco may land some shots but Loughran's wrestling and strength will be too much. Prediction: Loughran by decision, but could finish.

Paul agrees, seeing Loughran as a strong wrestler who can exploit Pacheco's weaknesses. He expects Loughran to win by decision or ground control, though the -350 price is not enticing.

The host picks Caolán Loughran to win dominantly via grappling. He believes Loughran will be able to get to his dominant positions and out-explode Pacheco early. He notes that Loughran's stand-up is not great, but Pacheco will be there in the pocket, opening up takedown opportunities. He predicts a TKO or submission in round one or two.