UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira

Angelo acknowledges that Pereira has beaten Adesanya twice in kickboxing, including by KO, but he picks Adesanya because he is the current middleweight champion with 24 UFC fights against Pereira's seven. He notes that both are strikers and unlikely to grapple, but believes Adesanya's MMA experience and cage control could be factors. He admits it is insane to pick against the champion but does so reluctantly. He has a bet on under 4.5 rounds at +150.

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, citing Adesanya's superior defensive striking and ability to avoid clean shots. He notes that Pereira has a puncher's chance but Adesanya fights smart and avoids risks, making it a 'boring' but effective game plan. He mentions the big cage favors Adesanya's movement and that Pereira's power is terrifying but Adesanya doesn't give opportunities to land clean. He also notes that Adesanya has never been knocked down in the UFC.

Cody picks Pereira as a live underdog, citing Pereira's size and power advantage over Adesanya's previous opponents. He notes that Pereira has already beaten Adesanya twice in kickboxing, including a knockout, and that the mental edge favors Pereira. He also points out that Adesanya's defensive wrestling is untested and that Pereira's grappling has improved training with Glover Teixeira. Cody believes Pereira can win a straight kickboxing match and has the power to hurt Adesanya.

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to retain the middleweight belt, citing Izzy's superior MMA experience and resume against top competition like Whittaker, Vettori, and Cannonier. He notes that while Pereira has knockout power and a history of beating Izzy in kickboxing, MMA is a different sport with smaller gloves, no standing eight-count, and the ability to clinch and grapple. Levi is hesitant because Pereira's left hook is a constant threat, and Izzy must be perfect for 25 minutes. He mentions the odds are a discount compared to Izzy's usual lines, but he has no bet on the fight and plans to enjoy it as a fan.

The host believes Adesanya is the superior striker with better technique and combinations, and that the smaller MMA gloves will allow his shots to land cleaner. He acknowledges Pereira's power and left hook but thinks Adesanya's discipline and output will win the fight, likely by decision. He sees no value in betting Adesanya at -180 but picks him to win.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Pereira as an underdog. He notes that Pereira has won both kickboxing matches against Adesanya and has been training with Glover, improving his grappling. Paul points out that Adesanya has never landed a takedown in the UFC and that Pereira's cardio should be fine in a stand-up fight. He also mentions that the line has fluctuated and he can wait for weigh-ins to bet, but he will have money on Pereira.

The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira, arguing that Pereira has improved more than Adesanya in striking since their kickboxing fights. He believes Adesanya has plateaued and that Pereira's size, reach, and power will be decisive. He notes that Adesanya has been hit by lesser strikers like Whittaker and Cannonier, and predicts a second-round KO. He dismisses the grappling threat, citing Pereira's training with Glover Teixeira and his defensive awareness.

Angelo believes Weili is the more dangerous fighter with power and improved wrestling. He expects Esparza to shoot takedowns but thinks Weili's athleticism and preparation will allow her to defend and possibly out-grapple Esparza. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is not great and that Weili could even get takedowns of her own. He picks Weili to win and expects Esparza to lose the belt quickly.

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, expecting a brutal beatdown. He believes Esparza's wrestling won't be enough to control Zhang for 25 minutes, and that on the feet it's not close. He compares it to Esparza's loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where she couldn't get takedowns and got finished. He notes Zhang knocked out Joanna with a spinning back fist and looks like a killer.

Cody picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, specifically by TKO. He compares the fight to Esparza's first title loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where Esparza was pressured against the cage and ate shots until the ref stopped it. He notes that Zhang hits very hard and that Esparza needs a perfect fight to get takedowns without taking damage. Cody believes Zhang's power and pressure will lead to a stoppage, and he prefers the inside distance prop over the moneyline.

Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili to become a two-time champion, but he is hesitant due to the price (-350) and the danger of Carla Esparza's wrestling and top control. He acknowledges that Carla has a history of mauling opponents like Yan Xiaonan and making Rose Namajunas gun-shy. Levi believes Weili is more well-rounded, powerful, and athletic, and he predicts a finish. However, he warns that if Weili gets laid on, it could be a repeat of Carla's past upsets. He advises against betting Carla again after her big dog win over Rose, calling it a 'one-time well.'

The host believes Zhang will get an early knockout, likely in the first two rounds. He notes Esparza's grappling is a threat, especially if the fight goes long, but Zhang's power and improved grappling should be enough to finish early. He recommends Zhang inside the distance rather than the moneyline, expecting a KO or submission. He also notes the under 4.5 rounds at +100 as a good bet.

Paul also picks Zhang Weili inside the distance, but specifically likes the TKO prop. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is suspect and that when she is forced to exchange, she tends to swell up. Paul highlights Zhang's pace, accuracy, and power, and believes that Esparza will not be able to get Zhang down. He warns against taking the KO prop specifically, recommending the inside distance prop instead to avoid being burned like he was with Poliana Viana.

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili, citing her improved grappling under Henry Cejudo and her ability to stuff takedowns and land knees and elbows. He notes Esparza's poor striking and her loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who stuffed 16 takedowns. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Weili dominating on the feet and stuffing all takedowns.

Angelo acknowledges Chandler's power and wrestling but does not trust him to fight to win rather than slug it out. He believes Poirier is the smarter, more composed fighter focused on winning a title. He picks Poirier because Chandler cannot be trusted to try to win, though he expects an exciting fight.

Big Brady picks Dustin Poirier to win by knockout in the second round. He believes Poirier is the better technical striker with better cardio, and that Chandler's chin is questionable after taking damage. He compares it to Chandler's fight with Gaethje, but notes Poirier has more power and better cardio. He expects a stand-up war with no takedowns, and that Chandler will slow down as the fight goes on.

Cody picks Michael Chandler as a plus money underdog, expecting chaos in the fight. He notes that both fighters will eat massive shots and that Chandler has a legitimate chance on any given night due to his athleticism, wrestling, and power. Cody believes Chandler's willingness to throw down and his durability make him live at the plus price, and he sees the fight as a 50/50 proposition.

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to knock out Michael Chandler, citing Poirier's volume, knockout power, and finishing ability when he smells blood. He notes that Chandler is susceptible to calf kicks and tends to get wild, which could lead to a straight left from Poirier. Levi respects Chandler's explosiveness and D1 wrestling but believes Poirier's experience and the 'Poirier Blitz' will be the difference. He mentions that he wanted to bet Poirier but missed the line at -175, so he is passing on a bet. He also discusses the danger of Chandler's one-punch power and the potential for a first-round knockout from either side.

The host sees Poirier as the better technical striker and believes his discipline will keep him out of trouble. He acknowledges Chandler's power and speed but thinks Poirier will outbox him and potentially get a late KO. He notes the line at -210 is a bit wide but still picks Poirier. He expects knockdowns and a possible finish from Poirier.

Paul picks Dustin Poirier by TKO, believing Poirier's boxing combinations and durability will be the difference. He notes that Chandler has durability issues and has been knocked out before, and that Poirier's pressure and volume will break Chandler down. Paul also mentions that Poirier is highly motivated and looks good in training, and that Chandler's recklessness could lead to him getting caught. He prefers the Poirier by TKO prop at plus money.

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Poirier, emphasizing Chandler's tendency to get hit and Poirier's granite chin and experience against elite competition. He believes Poirier will trade in the pocket and finish Chandler with a first-round TKO, noting that Chandler only shoots takedowns when hurt and may gas from wrestling. He references Chandler's struggles against Ferguson on the feet.

Angelo likes Hooker's striking and believes he can keep the fight standing. He notes that Puelles has poor takedown defense and Hooker has only been submitted once in his career. He picks Hooker to win the striking exchanges and get his mojo back. He plans to bet on Puelles inside the distance (decision no action) because he sees Hooker winning by decision or Puelles by submission, not Hooker by stoppage.

Big Brady picks Dan Hooker to win by knockout in the first or second round. He argues Hooker's competition has been much tougher (Islam, Arnold Allen, Chandler, Poirier) and that Puelles is a big step down. He praises Hooker's takedown defense (78%) and notes he has beaten good grapplers like Gilbert Burns and Jim Miller. He criticizes Puelles' striking and believes Hooker will beat him up on the feet, though he acknowledges Puelles' knee bar threat.

Cody picks Dan Hooker, arguing that Hooker's losses have come against elite competition and that Puelles has not impressed him. He notes that Puelles' wins are against lower-level opponents and that his striking is not dangerous. Cody believes Hooker's takedown defense and striking volume will allow him to dominate on the feet and win a decision, as Puelles is durable but not a finisher.

Daniel Levi picks Dan Hooker, citing Hooker's superior striking volume, variety, and experience against top competition. He notes that Puelles is a submission specialist, but Hooker has shown he can defend leg locks (e.g., against Ian Entwistle and Al Iaquinta). Levi is concerned about Hooker's durability after recent knockdowns but believes Puelles doesn't have the power to exploit that. He sees this as a test for Puelles to see if he's ready for the top 15, and he's not convinced yet. Levi expects Hooker to win via striking or top control.

The host believes Hooker is the far superior striker and BJJ player, and that Puelles' only path is a submission like a kneebar, which won't work against Hooker. He dismisses Hooker's 1-4 run because the losses were to elite fighters (Poirier, Chandler, Islam, Allen), while Puelles is not at that level. He expects Hooker to win easily, possibly by KO or submission, and recommends the moneyline or inside the distance.

Paul also picks Dan Hooker, agreeing that Puelles' stand-up is not a threat and that Hooker should dominate on the feet. He notes that if the fight goes to the ground, Puelles could grab a leg, but on the feet it should not be competitive. Paul believes Hooker's durability is slightly compromised but still enough to beat Puelles.

The MMA Guru picks Dan Hooker, believing he will stuff takedowns and expose Puelles' stand-up. He notes Puelles' struggles against strikers and Hooker's takedown defense against elite grapplers like Al Iaquinta and Gilbert Burns. He predicts a vintage Hooker KO at the end of the first round, citing Hooker's comfort at lightweight.

Angelo believes Riddell is the better striker and expects the fight to stay standing. He notes that Moicano's losses are mostly to strikers who out-struck him, and his chin is questionable. He thinks Riddell can mix in takedowns if needed and protect his neck. He will wait for props to drop before betting.

Big Brady picks Renato Moicano to win by submission. He notes Moicano's height and reach advantage, and that his ground game is excellent with many submissions. He believes Moicano will take the fight to the mat, where he has a clear advantage. He points out Riddell's 62% takedown defense and that he has been finished before (by Jalin Turner and Rafael Fiziev). He trusts Moicano to wrestle and get the submission.

Cody picks Brad Riddell by decision, but is not confident. He notes that Riddell at his best wins this fight as the better striker with good takedown defense, but he has concerns about Riddell's recent performances, including being gun-shy against Fiziev and getting submitted by Turner. Cody thinks Riddell's confidence may be an issue, but he still sees a path to victory by staying at range and countering.

Connor picks Brad Riddell because Riddell's counter-punching style and ability to gather data over the course of a fight make him more reliable. He notes that Moicano has shown a tendency to shut down when hurt, as seen in the Alex Hernandez fight, and that Riddell consistently improves round to round. Connor also mentions that Moicano's submission threats are unlikely to work against Riddell, who has never been submitted.

Daniel Levi leans toward Brad Riddell as a slight underdog, believing Riddell's kickboxing combinations can exploit Moicano's tall-man's defense and chin. He notes that Moicano has been clipped before and that Riddell's striking is more technical and powerful. However, he is worried about Moicano's back-taking ability and submissions if the fight goes to the ground. Levi thinks the line should be flipped with Riddell as a slight favorite, and he is considering a bet at plus money.

The host expects violence and an early finish, likely by Riddell via KO. He notes Moicano's early submission threat but believes Riddell's takedown defense and striking advantage will prevail as the fight goes on. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds at -110 over betting Riddell's moneyline, expecting a finish from Riddell's power.

Paul picks Moicano, noting that Riddell leans on his wrestling when things get shaky, which could be a recipe for disaster against Moicano's grappling. He is impressed by Moicano's recent improvements, especially his takedowns against Herbert and Hernandez. Paul does not see crazy power from Riddell and thinks Moicano's chin is a concern, but he leans slightly to Moicano unless a good submission prop appears.

The MMA Guru picks Renato Moicano, citing Riddell's vulnerability after being KO'd by Fiziev and rocked by Dober. He believes Moicano will pressure, find a scramble, take Riddell's back, and choke him out. He notes Riddell's lack of offensive grappling and Moicano's experience and submission skills, predicting a rear-naked choke in the second or third round.

Zane picks Brad Riddell, emphasizing that Riddell's ability to rally from bad rounds is proven, while Moicano's recent rally against Alex Hernandez was against a fighter prone to breaking. He notes that Moicano has been knocked out by various heavy-handed punchers and that Riddell's training with Fiziev could be instructive. Zane also points out that Moicano's submission wins come from guillotines, which are unlikely against Riddell.

Angelo does not make a pick for this fight. He notes that Reyes is a former title challenger with suspect chin coming off two KO losses, while Spann is a powerful but slow striker. He says the odds favor Reyes at 2-1 but calls it a coin toss and advises against betting at those odds. He will wait for weigh-ins and a Tuesday breakdown before deciding.

Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, but expresses low trust due to Reyes' recent performances and mental state. He notes Reyes has looked awful since the Jon Jones fight, being hesitant and getting knocked out by Jan Blachowicz. However, he believes Reyes is the much better striker with phenomenal takedown defense, and that Spann has been dropped by lesser fighters (Sam Alvey, Anthony Smith). He says if Reyes loses this, it's inexcusable.

Cody picks Ryan Spann as an underdog, citing narrative and speculation. He notes that Reyes' wins came against opponents who were past their prime or at a weight disadvantage, and that Reyes has lost three straight, including two knockouts. Cody points out that Reyes has been inactive for a year and a half and may have ring rust, while Spann is younger, active, and improving. He thinks Spann's power and reach could capitalize on Reyes' potential durability and confidence issues.

Connor picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that despite Reyes' recent losses, Spann's messy style and lack of discipline play into Reyes' counter-punching strengths. He notes that Spann's entries are wild and he often leaves openings, while Reyes is a cool, technical counter puncher. Connor believes Spann is not capable of making Reyes as uncomfortable as Prochazka did, and that Reyes should be able to take him apart.

Daniel Levi picks Dominick Reyes to knock out Ryan Spann, citing Reyes' superior distance game, straight left, and composure. He notes that Spann has been knocked out three times the same way (on takedown attempts) and has a questionable chin. Levi believes Reyes is on a different level and that Spann's mental fragility and tendency to get wild will be his downfall. He also mentions that Reyes has taken a year off and changed camps, which should help him refocus.

The host sees Reyes as the better technical striker with good range and a clean left hand. He is concerned about the layoff and durability questions after recent KO losses, but believes Reyes can take his time and finish Spann in the latter half. He likes the over 1.5 rounds at -120 as Reyes may be cautious early. He won't bet the moneyline at -225 but picks Reyes by KO.

Paul picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that if the fight extends, Reyes will lap Spann in volume. He notes that Spann's decision wins are uninspiring (e.g., split decision over Sam Alvey) and that he has been knocked out by Johnny Walker. Paul believes Reyes' losses are to elite competition (Jones, Blachowicz, Prochazka) and that Spann hasn't fought anyone of that caliber. He thinks Reyes' volume and experience will be decisive.

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Ryan Spann, expressing concern about Reyes' motivation and damage taken after the Jones fight and long layoff. He thinks Reyes may shell up under power and predicts Spann will rock him and secure a guillotine choke. He acknowledges Spann's glass chin but believes his bursts will be enough.

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Reyes. He notes that Spann is a dangerous but fundamentally limited fighter who relies on chaos, while Reyes has a thin but effective counter-punching game. Zane points out that Spann's wild entries and lack of durability make him vulnerable to Reyes' counters, and that Reyes' losses came against elite fighters who could exploit his weaknesses in ways Spann cannot.

Angelo thinks Blanchfield is the more talented fighter with a higher ceiling, but he is concerned about her struggles in her last fight against JJ Aldrich. He notes that McCann is gritty, experienced, and could break a young prospect. He picks Blanchfield to win via takedowns and control, but does not expect a submission. He suggests the bet might be on McCann inside the distance (decision no action) because McCann could avoid takedowns and win by stoppage, while a decision loss would refund the bet.

Big Brady picks Erin Blanchfield to win by submission, calling it a terrible matchup for Molly McCann. He notes McCann's 46% takedown defense and how she was ragdolled by Laura Procopio. He compares Blanchfield's dominance over Miranda Maverick (7 takedowns) to that fight. He believes Blanchfield will take McCann down repeatedly and likely finish her, as McCann has been submitted before (by Gillian Robertson). He questions why McCann took the fight.

Cody leans towards McCann strictly because of the plus money. He notes that Blanchfield struggled to get takedowns against JJ Aldrich and was taken down herself, which raises questions. He thinks if Blanchfield can't get the fight to the mat, McCann's striking could make it competitive. However, he acknowledges McCann's takedown defense is poor and Blanchfield is a strong wrestler, so he is not confident.

Connor picks Blanchfield, citing McCann's inability to solve problems in fights and her tendency to get taken down easily. He notes that McCann's recent wins were against limited opponents, and that Blanchfield is a good opportunist who can take advantage of McCann's overaggression. Connor also mentions that McCann's best work is on the back foot, but she often presses forward and walks into danger.

Daniel Levi picks Erin Blanchfield, citing her grappling advantage and ability to take McCann down and control her. He notes that McCann struggles to get back up when taken down, and Blanchfield is a black belt. However, he is not interested in betting at -390 because he wants guarantees and worries that Blanchfield might stand and trade, giving McCann a chance. He respects McCann's heart and spirit but believes Blanchfield's path to victory is through grappling.

The host believes Blanchfield's superior grappling and trips will eventually get the fight to the ground, where she can submit McCann. He notes McCann's improved striking and confidence could make it competitive on the feet, but Blanchfield's grappling is the difference. He likes the under 2.5 rounds at +180 for finishing potential. He is not betting the moneyline at -390.

Paul picks Blanchfield by decision, highlighting her relentless pressure and grappling. He notes that McCann has poor takedown defense (47%) and has been taken down 12 times in her two losses. Paul believes Blanchfield will take McCann down and control her on the mat, and that McCann's only chance is a spinning elbow knockout. He thinks Blanchfield's wrestling and top control will secure a decision win.

The MMA Guru picks Erin Blanchfield, highlighting her dominant grappling win over Miranda Maverick, who has since ragdolled others. He notes McCann's history of being outgrappled and believes the threat of takedowns will diminish McCann's striking. He predicts a 29-28 decision, with McCann possibly doing decent in the third round but lacking power to finish.

Zane picks Blanchfield, noting that McCann's grappling deficiencies were exposed against Laura Procopio, who took her down easily. He points out that Blanchfield is a decent clinch wrestler and opportunist, and that McCann's tendency to overextend and get countered makes her vulnerable. Zane also mentions that Blanchfield's fight with JJ Aldrich showed she can take shots and keep pressing for takedowns.

Angelo believes Petroski has superior wrestling and solid BJJ, and expects him to get takedowns and avoid submissions. He notes that Turman is training with Glover and Pajeda, which is a positive, but still picks Petroski. He warns that Turman's armbar over Misha Cirkunov was impressive and any mistake could cost Petroski. He plans to bet on Petroski's takedown line when it drops.

Big Brady picks Wellington Turman to win by third-round submission, pulling off an upset. He is not sold on Andre Petroski, citing his poor cardio and weak competition (Yizong, Michael Gilmore, Nick Maximov). He notes Turman is a legit BJJ black belt with 85% takedown defense, and that Petroski tired and got submitted by Brian Battle. He believes Turman will survive early pressure and get a late finish as Petroski fades.

Cody picks Turman as a slight flyer, noting that Petroski has suspect cardio despite third-round finishes. He thinks Turman is a better striker and has good grappling off his back, and that if Petroski gasses, Turman can take over. Cody also mentions that Turman trains with Glover Teixeira and Alex Pereira, which should have him in good shape. He sees value in the underdog price.

Connor picks Turman, reasoning that Petroski's high-energy, submission-hunting style leads to gassing, and Turman has never been submitted despite looking panicked. He notes that Turman has survived against dangerous grapplers and has more left in the tank after the first round. Connor acknowledges that Petroski will likely win the first round but expects Turman to take over as the fight goes on.

Daniel Levi picks Andre Petroski, citing his wrestling background, grappling credentials (submitted Eric Anders in a tournament), and high-volume pressure. He notes that Turman has shown weaknesses in getting his back taken and losing rounds late (e.g., Sam Alvey fight). Levi believes Petroski will win the first two rounds or get a finish, though he acknowledges Petroski's tendency to gas. He sees Turman as a step up in competition but thinks Petroski's grappling will be too much.

The host sees Petroski as the slightly better Jiu-Jitsu player with a strength advantage, but the line at -200 is too wide for him to bet. He considers the under 2.5 rounds but worries both grapplers could neutralize each other, leading to a decision. He predicts Petroski by submission in round 2 but with low conviction.

Paul also picks Turman, citing recency bias in the line. He notes that Petroski was a +300 underdog against Nick Maximov and now is -200 after a first-round submission, which seems like an overreaction. Paul thinks Turman can match Petroski on the ground and has more technical striking. He sees it as a clear dog-or-pass situation and takes Turman.

The MMA Guru picks Andre Petroski, citing his dominant performances and grappling wins over Eric Anders and Phil Hawes. He believes Petroski has advantages on both feet and ground, with good chain takedowns and submission awareness. He predicts a decision win, noting Turman's unimpressive split decision over Sam Alvey.

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Turman. He notes that Petroski gasses but doesn't seem to know it, and his striking is not functional when tired. Zane points out that Turman has a history of surviving and finding ways to win, even if it's ugly. He also mentions that Petroski's path to victory is narrow, relying on an early finish.

Angelo notes that Azaitar is a powerful striker who thrives in chaos, while Frevola is a tough wrestler who charges forward. He is concerned about Azaitar's two-year layoff but assumes he is prepared. He picks Azaitar and plans to bet on Azaitar inside the distance if the odds are favorable, because he believes if Azaitar wins it will be by stoppage, while Frevola's path is a decision.

Big Brady picks Ottman Azaitar to win by first-round knockout. He believes Frevola will choose to stand and bang, which plays into Azaitar's power. He notes Azaitar hits harder than anyone Frevola has faced, and that Frevola has been knocked out before (by Terrence McKinney in 7 seconds) and dropped multiple times. He acknowledges Azaitar's inactivity and takedown defense concerns, but trusts his power. He says if Frevola wrestles he could win, but he doesn't trust him to do so.

Cody picks Azaitar, citing his legitimate power and the fact that Frevola has durability issues, having been knocked out by Marco Polo Reyes and dropped by Lando Vannata. He notes that Azaitar has been on a long layoff but was given a favorable matchup. Cody thinks Azaitar will land a big shot and finish Frevola in the first or second round.

Connor picks Azaitar, noting that Frevola has been knocked out early by powerful punchers like Polo Reyes and Terrence McKinney. He points out that Azaitar is an accurate and aggressive finisher who comes out of the gate on point. Connor acknowledges that if the fight goes past the first round, Frevola's versatility gives him an edge, but he trusts Azaitar's early power.

Daniel Levi picks Ottman Azaitar, believing he will knock out Frevola early. He notes that Frevola has a suspect chin and has been dropped in multiple fights, while Azaitar has knockout power. However, he warns that if Azaitar doesn't finish early, Frevola's pace and heart could take over in later rounds. Levi sees this as a pick'em and is leaning toward Azaitar's finishing ability.

The host expects violence and an early finish, likely by Azaitar via KO in round 1. He notes Azaitar's 12 finishes in 13 wins and Frevola's fragility. However, he also sees a path for Frevola via submission if he survives the early onslaught. The best bet is the under 2.5 rounds to cover both scenarios. Official prediction is Azaitar by KO round 1.

Paul is torn but leans towards Azaitar getting the finish, though he is more drawn to the under 1.5 rounds prop. He notes that Azaitar hits very hard and Frevola has been knocked out before, but he is unsure about Azaitar's grappling if taken down. Paul thinks the fight will end early, likely by Azaitar KO, but he prefers the under prop.

The MMA Guru picks Ottman Azaitar, surprised he is an underdog. He notes Frevola's vulnerability in the pocket and Azaitar's power, predicting a KO in the second round. He acknowledges Azaitar's long layoff and past grappling issues but believes Frevola isn't explosive enough to exploit them.

Zane picks Azaitar, comparing him to Abdul Razak Alhassan in terms of early explosiveness and accuracy. He notes that Frevola has been slept by similar fighters and that Azaitar's left hook is a real threat. Zane also mentions that Frevola's durability is questionable, and Azaitar follows up on damage well.

Angelo acknowledges that Kowalkiewicz is the more technical striker, but he is swayed by Gómez Juárez's raw power and durability. He notes that both are 37 years old and that Kowalkiewicz's five-fight losing streak, even against top competition, is hard to ignore. He picks Gómez Juárez based on a gut feeling but encourages viewers to fade his pick and not bet on this fight because it is evenly matched.

Big Brady picks Silvana Gómez Juárez to win by first-round knockout. He notes Kowalkiewicz has looked awful in recent fights, absorbs many strikes, and has poor striking defense. He highlights Gómez Juárez's power, having dropped Vanessa Demopoulos and knocked out Liang Na. He doubts Kowalkiewicz will wrestle, as she has only two takedowns in her UFC career. He believes if it stays on the feet, Gómez Juárez will land a big shot and finish her.

Cody leans towards Gómez Juárez, noting that Kowalkiewicz has poor takedown accuracy and likely won't grapple, leading to a striking battle. He thinks Gómez Juárez has significant power and that Kowalkiewicz's chin may not hold up. However, he acknowledges that Gómez Juárez is one-dimensional and could be submitted if taken down, so he is not confident.

Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, noting that her win over Felice Herrig showed she still has the tools to win, even if she had to convince herself to absorb damage. He points out that Gómez Juárez is a one-dimensional striker with poor grappling, and Kowalkiewicz is a surprisingly good wrestler. Connor believes that if Kowalkiewicz can survive the early exchanges, she can take the fight to the ground and win.

Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience, clinch work, and well-roundedness. He notes that Gómez Juárez has one-punch knockout power but is one-dimensional and hasn't faced this level of competition. Levi believes if Kowalkiewicz fights smart—using clinch, knees, and takedowns—she can win. He is concerned about her recent skid and durability but thinks she has a path to victory.

The host believes Kowalkiewicz has the technical striking advantage and superior Jiu-Jitsu, which she can use to drag the fight to the ground and potentially submit Juarez. He dismisses concerns about Kowalkiewicz's chin, noting she took hard shots from Yanan and didn't go down. He sees her as the better overall fighter and expects her to get her hand raised, possibly via submission.

Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, believing she is being disrespected. He notes that she is a more complete fighter and that Gómez Juárez is a one-trick pony with power but no backup plan. Paul thinks Kowalkiewicz's chin and heart have held up against elite competition, and that she can win by volume and experience. He sees the pick'em price as fair.

The MMA Guru picks Silvana Gómez Juárez, citing her nasty hands and quick boxing combos. He notes Kowalkiewicz's history of being KO'd and hurt, and her tendency to close her eyes when punching. He believes Gómez Juárez will land big boxing combos and get a quick win, possibly a first-round KO.

Zane picks Kowalkiewicz, emphasizing that Gómez Juárez is a clean puncher but has no grappling game and can be taken down easily. He notes that Kowalkiewicz's style relies on absorbing damage, but she has only been knocked out once. Zane also points out that Gómez Juárez's submission attempts are based on poor positional understanding, making her a liability on the ground.

Angelo sees this as a close firefight between two forward-pressure strikers. He thinks Trizano may be more technical, but Choi is more well-rounded, has higher volume, and is more durable. He notes that Choi's losses were close and he showed durability. He is not sure about betting because the odds are close, but he leans Choi to win.

Big Brady picks SeungWoo Choi to win by decision. He believes Choi is the better striker with more power, and that Trizano doesn't wrestle (only 1-2 takedowns in UFC). He notes Choi has struggled with grapplers but Trizano won't take him down. He criticizes Trizano's recent performances, being outlanded by Lucas Almeida and Chidi Njokuani. He expects a striking match where Choi's power and volume earn him a decision.

Cody picks Choi, arguing that Trizano looks washed and disinterested, with poor striking defense and low volume. He notes that Choi is long, rangy, and versatile with his Muay Thai, and that Trizano has been getting hit and knocked down recently. Cody believes Choi will pick Trizano apart from distance and win by decision or TKO.

Connor picks Choi, noting that Trizano's low output and discomfort in exchanges play into Choi's strengths as a sharp counter puncher. He points out that Choi is dangerous at range and Trizano struggles to force the kind of messy fight that would make Choi uncomfortable. Connor also mentions that Trizano's recent improvements in aggression are not natural, and he still looks uncomfortable in exchanges.

Daniel Levi picks SeungWoo Choi, believing he will land the bigger shots and potentially knock out Trizano. He notes that Trizano has a low-volume point-fighting style and may be on a losing streak, while Choi has faced tougher competition and shown resilience. Levi thinks Choi's power and experience will be too much for Trizano, who has confidence issues after recent losses.

The host sees Choi as the slicker striker with better range and combinations. He notes Trizano struggles when at a striking disadvantage, as seen in losses to L'Empereur and Almeida. Choi's size and reach should allow him to touch Trizano from the outside and win a decision. The host also likes the over 2.5 rounds if the price is right, expecting a kickboxing match without a finish.

Paul leans towards Trizano, noting that Choi's volume is low and that Trizano could mix in takedowns. He acknowledges that Trizano has looked bad recently but thinks the fight is close and that Trizano's wrestling could be the difference. Paul is not confident and calls it a stay-away fight.

The MMA Guru confidently picks SeungWoo Choi, reasoning that Trizano lacks takedown ability and Choi has great takedown defense. He criticizes Trizano's basic, goofy striking and notes that Choi has dealt with unorthodox fighters before. He predicts a 30-27 decision for Choi.

Zane picks Choi, agreeing that Trizano's low output and lack of comfort in exchanges make him vulnerable. He notes that Choi is sharp and dangerous in the first layer of striking, where Trizano tends to get stuck. Zane also points out that Trizano's jab and low kicks may have success, but he won't be able to make Choi uncomfortable enough to win.

Angelo believes Julio Arce is the better technical striker but has a suspect chin. He trusts Montel Jackson's wrestling and power, noting that Jackson's only losses are to wrestlers who out-grappled him. He thinks Jackson will win by using his takedowns and power, rather than trying to out-strike Arce. He mentions that the takedown prop lines will be interesting and that he will likely bet on Jackson's takedowns.

Big Brady picks Montel Jackson to win by decision. He highlights Jackson's size, reach, power (10 knockdowns in UFC), and wrestling (over 4 takedowns per 15 minutes at 78% accuracy). He notes Arce has good takedown defense (94%) but hasn't faced many wrestlers. He believes Jackson will mix takedowns and land the bigger shots, winning a decision. He also mentions Jackson's youth and power advantage.

Cody picks Arce, citing his excellent footwork, volume, and 94% takedown defense. He notes that Jackson has not fought top competition and that Arce's movement and striking should give Jackson trouble. Cody thinks if Jackson can't take Arce down, Arce will outpoint him. He is not highly confident but sees value at plus money.

Connor picks Arce, noting that Jackson has not improved in four years and lacks depth in his grappling and striking. He points out that Arce is a complete fighter with sharp footwork and counters, and that Jackson's wrestling is not good enough to hold Arce down. Connor also mentions that Arce has been getting better and has faced higher-level competition.

Daniel Levi picks Montel Jackson, citing his immense talent, power, wrestling, and physical attributes. He notes that Jackson has knockout power and a reach advantage, but his work ethic is questionable. Levi believes if Jackson shows up focused, he can dominate. He respects Arce's point-fighting style but thinks Jackson's power and wrestling will be the difference.

The host believes Arce is the better technical striker with superior footwork and kicks, and his 94% takedown defense should keep the fight standing. He questions Jackson's competition level, noting his wins are over lower-tier opponents and he struggles against better grapplers. Arce's output and volume should frustrate Jackson, leading to a decision win. The host acknowledges Arce's durability concerns but sees value at +175.

Paul also leans towards Arce, agreeing with Cody's analysis. He notes that Jackson is enormous for the weight class and that Arce will have to eat shots to get inside, but if Arce keeps the fight standing, it should be close to a pick'em. Paul is not confident but goes with Arce.

The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson, citing his underrated prospect status, massive hands, and physical advantages like a 5.5-inch reach advantage. He believes Jackson can outwork Arce on the feet and predicts a close split decision 29-28. He notes Jackson's grappling defense against good grapplers like Brett Johns and Ricky Simon.

Zane picks Arce, emphasizing that Jackson's striking is one-dimensional and he lacks confidence in it. He notes that Arce's consistent style and ability to handle pressure fighters like Daniel Santos make him a good bet. Zane also points out that Jackson's wins have come against lower-level competition, while Arce has fought tougher opponents.

Angelo acknowledges that Carlos Ulberg is the far better striker with superior technique and range, but he is concerned about Ulberg's untested takedown defense (only one takedown defended in the UFC). He notes that Negumereanu is incredibly durable, throws heat, and has a backup plan with slamming takedowns. Despite Ulberg's advantages, Angelo picks Negumereanu because he is the more well-rounded MMA fighter and believes Negumereanu's chin and takedowns will be the difference. He admits he is going against his own analysis.

Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by decision. He believes Ulberg is the much better striker, while Negumereanu has terrible striking defense and absorbs many strikes. However, he notes Negumereanu has a great chin and could win if he gets takedowns. He trusts Ulberg's takedown defense due to training with Adesanya, and expects Ulberg to keep it at range and outpoint Negumereanu to a decision, as he doesn't think Ulberg can knock him out.

Cody picks Ulberg by decision, noting that Ulberg is more polished and a better kickboxer. He thinks Ulberg's improvements in footwork and fight IQ will allow him to stay at range and pick apart Negumereanu, who is durable but lacks a standout skill. Cody believes Ulberg's reach and technique will lead to a clear decision win.

Connor picks Negumereanu, noting that Ulberg has poor defense and either fights tentatively or gasses when he goes wild. He points out that Negumereanu is incredibly durable and will pressure Ulberg, forcing him into a brawl. Connor believes that Ulberg's lack of defense and tendency to collapse under pressure will be exploited by Negumereanu's relentless style.

Daniel Levi has a bet on Carlos Ulberg, citing Ulberg's cleaner striking and the fact that Negumereanu gets hit clean in every fight. He notes that Negumereanu relies on toughness and pressure, but Ulberg's counters will be there because Negumereanu comes forward. Levi believes Ulberg learned from his loss to Kennedy Nzechukwu (where he gassed) and will pace himself better. He predicts either a knockout or a clear decision win.

The host sees this as a 50/50 fight with a slight edge to Negumereanu due to his grit, durability, and ability to grind opponents. He notes Ulberg has a striking advantage but questions his comfort in a brawl. Negumereanu's path to victory via grinding and takedowns is more varied than Ulberg's knockout-only path. The host is taking a shot on Negumereanu around plus money.

Paul picks Ulberg, agreeing that Ulberg's striking pedigree and improvements will be key. He notes that Negumereanu is durable but has been outstruck in fights and relies on pressure. Paul thinks Ulberg's reach and technique will allow him to control the fight, and he also likes the over 46.5 significant strikes prop for Ulberg.

The MMA Guru leans towards Carlos Ulberg, noting that Negumereanu's win over Nzechukwu was a robbery and that Ulberg was schooling Nzechukwu before gassing out. He highlights Ulberg's smoother sailing and momentum, but acknowledges Negumereanu's reach advantage and potential takedowns. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Ulberg, expecting him to work back up from takedowns.

Zane picks Negumereanu, agreeing that Ulberg's defensive issues and tendency to either be tentative or wild make him vulnerable. He notes that Negumereanu is unbreakable and will keep coming, and that Ulberg's best chance is an early knockout, but Negumereanu's durability makes that unlikely. Zane also points out that Negumereanu's pressure will draw the brawl out of Ulberg.