Ricky Turcios

Big Brady picks Alberto Montes over Ricky Turcios. He finds Turcios frustrating to pick, noting his low output and poor striking accuracy. Montes is a front choke specialist with power and submission threats. Brady sees Montes winning by decision or potentially hurting Turcios, who has been getting hurt more often. He trusts Montes to be more active and land bigger shots.

Cody picks Turcios, citing his better wrestling, striking, and experience. He notes Montes is a one-trick pony with the darce choke, and Turcios is hard to submit. He expects Turcios to win a decision, possibly a split.

Connor picks Turcios hesitantly, reasoning that Montes' game is dysfunctional enough that Turcios' chaotic style can compete. He notes that Turcios is tireless and has only been submitted once, while Montes has poor striking defense and may gas out under pressure. However, he acknowledges that Turcios is the smaller, weaker man moving up in weight.

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Alberto Montes in his UFC debut, praising his disciplined striking and submission ability. He criticizes Ricky Turcios for not evolving and being figured out, and believes Montes will outpoint him without being affected by Turcios's antics.

The host is interested in Turcios as an underdog (+158) but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Montes is more technical everywhere but has little experience and many quick finishes. Turcios is tough, high-paced, and can drag opponents into wars, which could trouble a debutant. However, the host caps Turcios at around 50% and wants a bigger margin; the current odds imply 39%, which is not enough for him. He will wait for weigh-ins.

James picks Alberto Montes, noting that Ricky Turcios lacks power, submission threat, and volume, making it hard for him to win UFC fights. He believes Montes is a better striker with more power and has a dangerous anaconda choke that could submit Turcios. James is not confident but sees Montes as the side with more paths to victory.

Turcios is awkward and scrambly, making it hard for Montes to secure his front choke. Turcios has better striking output and accuracy against a less confident striker. He should survive grappling exchanges and win a decision as an underdog.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Turcios. He notes Montes' limited offense and Turcios' scrambling ability. He expects Turcios to outwork Montes and win a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Alberto Montes, but hesitantly. He thinks Montes can secure a submission (Anaconda choke) when Turcios shoots for takedowns. He notes Turcios has been skittish since TUF and that Montes, though sloppy, should win.

Angelo picks Benardo Sopaj, citing his speed, power, takedown defense, and overall skill advantage over Ricky Turcios. He acknowledges Turcios' high pace and pressure but believes Sopaj can slow it down and take advantage of the skill gap. However, he warns against betting Sopaj at -400 due to the risk from his recent knockout loss.

Cody picks Benardo Sopaj, noting that the line is 100 points better than when the fight was first booked. He believes Sopaj is a legitimate prospect with strong wrestling and improving striking. Turcios has poor takedown defense, as seen against Kevin Natividad and Brady Hiestand, and his wins are split decisions. Sopaj is younger and more dynamic. Cody expects Sopaj to take Turcios down and secure rounds, possibly earning a finish. Sopaj is part of the Saftic Super Boost.

Daniel picks Sopaj, noting that he has never been a fan of Turcios' style. He believes Sopaj is a real prospect with impressive knockouts on the regional scene. Daniel thinks Sopaj's physical attributes and raw skill will overcome Turcios' experience. He mentions that Sopaj's only loss was to a dangerous fighter (Lock Dog) and that Turcios is not a threat.

The host believes Sopaj won fans with a close fight against Vinicius Oliveira and can put on a high-paced fight, landing more damage and outworking Turcios on route to a decision victory.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Sopaj. He notes that Turcios has been taken down multiple times by opponents who committed to wrestling, and Sopaj has the wrestling to do the same. Paul believes Sopaj's power and takedowns will be decisive. He is comfortable adding Sopaj to tickets despite the chalk.

Angelo picks Raul Rosas Jr., noting his relentless wrestling and takedowns. He acknowledges that Ricky Turcios has a wild style and good scrambles, but his takedown defense is poor. He thinks Rosas will get takedowns early and often, and while Turcios might survive, Rosas should win a decision or get a submission. He is confident in Rosas.

Big Brady picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win by decision. He notes that the fight is now in Louisville instead of Mexico City, removing elevation concerns. He highlights Turcios's zero takedown defense, having been taken down 13 times in his last two fights. He expects Rosas to chain wrestle and win a dominant decision, possibly dropping the third round if he slows down.

Cody picks Rosas Jr. based on the stylistic matchup, noting Turcios' poor takedown defense and Rosas' strength and wrestling. He acknowledges Rosas' cardio issues but believes Turcios is not durable enough to survive the early rounds. Cody also likes that the fight was postponed, giving Rosas more time to prepare and make weight. He expects Rosas to get takedowns and potentially submit Turcios.

Daniel leans towards Rosas due to his physicality and early dominance, but acknowledges Turcios' experience and the possibility of Rosas gassing late. He notes Rosas' style requires high energy, similar to Aljamain Sterling, and that Turcios could take over if he makes Rosas work. He picks Rosas but wouldn't be surprised by a late fade.

Jacob picks Raul Rosas Jr., calling it a simple matchup: a relentless wrestler against a guy who can't defend takedowns. He notes that Turcios has empty pressure and isn't dangerous. He thinks Rosas will get takedowns and control the fight, and even if he gasses, he can still win. He is confident Rosas gets it done easily.

Rosas Jr. is a young grappler with strong scrambling and control, while Turcios is unorthodox and hard to submit. The fight will likely be a grappling-heavy scramble, with Rosas Jr. getting more control time and winning a decision. However, Turcios' experience and weird style make it tough to trust Rosas at -220. Over 2.5 rounds is a better play.

Paul picks Rosas Jr., noting that Turcios is a terrible stylistic matchup for Rosas due to his poor takedown defense and lack of finishing ability. He believes Rosas will take him down early and often, and while Rosas has cardio issues, Turcios is not good enough to capitalize. Paul expects Rosas to win by submission or decision.

Angelo is very confident in Ricky Turcios due to his high volume and pace, contrasting with Zahabi's low output. He notes Turcios landed 200 strikes despite being taken down 6 times in his last fight. He sees Turcios as a parlay piece and already has a moneyline bet at -175. He compares the matchup to Brian Barbarena vs Robbie Lawler, where volume overcame power.

Big Brady picks Ricky Turcios due to his relentless activity and minute-winning ability. He notes that Turcios has many holes in his game (poor takedown defense, hittable, reckless) but believes Zahabi's low volume (2.82 significant strikes per minute) won't capitalize on them. He thinks if the fight goes to decision, Turcios will do enough to win. He acknowledges Zahabi could win by knockout if he lands clean, but leans toward Turcios by decision.

Cody believes Turcios' relentless pace and cardio will overwhelm Zahabi, who fights infrequently and has low volume. He thinks Zahabi's only path is a knockout, but Turcios is durable and will outwork him over three rounds. He cites Zahabi's poor performances and lack of activity.

The host says he is picking Zahabi to win but does not place a bet on the fight. He mentions that Zahabi could knock out Turcios but is not super confident. He does not elaborate on reasoning beyond that.

Paul is interested in the over 2.5 rounds prop and leans Turcios due to Zahabi's inconsistency. He notes Zahabi has skills but rarely puts them together, while Turcios has a high work rate. He's not fully confident but sees Turcios as the likely winner.

Angelo picks Turcios, citing his crazy style, pressure, and variety of strikes. He notes Hiestand is formulaic and will struggle with Turcios' unpredictability. He has Turcios in his DraftKings lineup at 8700 and likes the more more on monkey knife fight.

Cody leans toward Hiestand as a live underdog, impressed by his takedowns and knockout of Vince Murdock on TUF. He thinks Hiestand's wrestling could neutralize Turcios, but acknowledges Turcios' experience and scrambling ability. Cody is worried about Turcios' takedown defense and thinks Hiestand could control the fight. He calls Hiestand a prospect and says the plus-140 line is not terrible.

Jacob picks Turcios but is hesitant, noting Hiestand's good takedowns and Turcios' defensive movement issues. He worries if Hiestand gets a hold of Turcios, it could be one-sided. He relies on Turcios' movement and volume to win.

Lock picks Hiestand as an underdog, citing his wrestling-heavy approach and ability to implement a game plan. He thinks Hiestand's jiu-jitsu is good enough to avoid submissions from Turcios. Lock is concerned about Hiestand's striking and cardio but believes he can secure takedowns and win rounds. He likes Hiestand by decision at +300 and considers him a potential dog of the night.

Paul picks Hiestand as a dog, noting his quick takedown entries and potential. He thinks Turcios' veteran savvy will neutralize Hiestand's striking, but he likes the over 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece. Paul is not fully confident in Hiestand's hands but sees value at plus-140.