UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze

Angelo picks Barboza, citing his leg kicks as the difference, veteran savvy, and more tools (jiu-jitsu, experience). He notes Chikadze is the future but hasn't faced leg kicks. He has Barboza in his DraftKings lineup at 8200 and calls the fight razor thin.

Cody picks Barboza but is hesitant, noting Barboza's age (35) and the risk that Giga could have a breakout performance. He values Barboza's experience and durability, having faced top competition, while Giga's resume is softer. Cody is worried about Giga's cardio after seeing him slow in round three against Jamall Emmers, and thinks Barboza's volume and wrestling advantage could be key if he survives the early danger. He already bet Barboza at -110 and says he won't have high investment.

Jacob picks Chikadze, calling him an assassin who is on another level. He notes Chikadze is never in trouble and controls distance. He got Chikadze at +100 and has him in his lineup for five rounds, expecting a war. He also placed a half-unit bet on Chikadze in the third round.

Lock leans slightly to Barboza, citing his volume and pace advantage over Giga. He believes Barboza's durability at 145 has held up and that Giga's cardio issues will be exposed in a five-round fight. Lock expects Barboza to get a finish in the later rounds, specifically liking the under 4.5 rounds and Barboza by KO at +270. He notes Giga's power is dangerous early but thinks Barboza's experience and activity will be the difference.

Paul picks Barboza, citing Barboza's higher striking volume and Giga's cardio issues seen in the Emmers fight. He notes Barboza's wrestling advantage and thinks if Barboza gets through the first two rounds, he'll be even stronger. Paul is scared away from Giga by his third-round fade against Emmers. He also mentions the line moving toward Barboza but remains confident.

The Guru picks Edson Barboza over Giga Chikadze, citing Barboza's superior striking, experience in main events, and proven cardio at featherweight. He notes that Chikadze has close split decisions against Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis, which are red flags. The Guru expects Barboza to chop Chikadze's legs with calf kicks and win a decision, possibly 4 rounds to 1. He also mentions Barboza's takedown option as a potential factor.

Angelo picks Battle, citing his striking volume, head kicks, and takedown defense. He notes Urbina lost in the semifinals due to striking and that Battle is the better striker. He placed a 2-unit moneyline bet, which is rare for him.

Cody picks Battle, noting he looks like the bigger middleweight with solid takedown defense and clinch work. He contrasts Urbina's sporadic career and poor performance against Trashon Gore, where he was dropped by jabs. Cody believes Battle's generalist skills and experience from fighting frequently give him the edge, and he expects a decision win.

Jacob reluctantly picks Battle, saying he doesn't think either fighter is very good. He notes Battle was getting outgrappled before finding a D'Arce choke, and Urbina got dropped in his last fight. He expects a sloppy mess but gives Battle the edge due to his ability to get back to his feet.

Lock picks Battle by decision at +210, believing Battle will grind out Urbina over 15 minutes. He notes Battle's grappling and striking progression, and thinks Urbina is tentative and low-volume. Lock is concerned about Battle's power but thinks he can outpoint Urbina. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as well. Lock considered Battle as a potential lock of the night but wants more data.

Paul agrees with Battle, emphasizing that Urbina is the smaller man moving up and has limited skills. He notes Battle's ability to mix striking and wrestling, and that Urbina's chin looked suspect against Gore. Paul thinks Battle is the clear pick and will likely win by decision or TKO.

The Guru picks Bryan Battle to finish Gilbert Urbina, noting Battle's rapid improvement and Urbina's lack of preparation. He mentions that Urbina was knocked out on TUF and is taking the fight on short notice. The Guru predicts a third-round submission for Battle, as he trusts Battle's finishing ability over Urbina's durability.

Angelo picks Turcios, citing his crazy style, pressure, and variety of strikes. He notes Hiestand is formulaic and will struggle with Turcios' unpredictability. He has Turcios in his DraftKings lineup at 8700 and likes the more more on monkey knife fight.

Cody leans toward Hiestand as a live underdog, impressed by his takedowns and knockout of Vince Murdock on TUF. He thinks Hiestand's wrestling could neutralize Turcios, but acknowledges Turcios' experience and scrambling ability. Cody is worried about Turcios' takedown defense and thinks Hiestand could control the fight. He calls Hiestand a prospect and says the plus-140 line is not terrible.

Jacob picks Turcios but is hesitant, noting Hiestand's good takedowns and Turcios' defensive movement issues. He worries if Hiestand gets a hold of Turcios, it could be one-sided. He relies on Turcios' movement and volume to win.

Lock picks Hiestand as an underdog, citing his wrestling-heavy approach and ability to implement a game plan. He thinks Hiestand's jiu-jitsu is good enough to avoid submissions from Turcios. Lock is concerned about Hiestand's striking and cardio but believes he can secure takedowns and win rounds. He likes Hiestand by decision at +300 and considers him a potential dog of the night.

Paul picks Hiestand as a dog, noting his quick takedown entries and potential. He thinks Turcios' veteran savvy will neutralize Hiestand's striking, but he likes the over 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece. Paul is not fully confident in Hiestand's hands but sees value at plus-140.

The Guru picks Ricky Turcios by TKO in the later rounds, expecting Hiestand to grapple early but fade due to cardio. He notes Turcios' experience against better competition and Hiestand's lack of finishing ability. The Guru predicts a third-round TKO as Turcios pours on pressure.

Angelo picks Rodriguez but is cautious, citing his crisp boxing, takedown defense, and cardio. He notes Lee has two bad knees and is moving up in weight. He thinks a healthy Lee would win, but the matchup favors Rodriguez. He has Rodriguez in his DraftKings lineup at 7700.

Cody picks Lee, believing that at 170 pounds Lee will have better cardio and can use his wrestling. He notes Lee's talent and that this is a step down in competition. Cody thinks Lee's wrestling will be effective against Rodriguez, who fishes for submissions off his back. He is slightly worried about the size disparity but overall likes Lee as a favorite.

Jacob picks Lee, citing his talent and the move to welterweight helping his cut. He believes Lee will get the fight to the ground and submit or TKO Rodriguez. He is surprised Lee is a +150 favorite and thinks he finds a way to win.

Lock picks Kevin Lee by decision at +215, believing Lee's grappling advantage will be decisive. He thinks Lee can secure takedowns in the first two rounds and at least one in the third, controlling the fight. Lock is concerned about Lee's cardio but notes it's a three-round fight and Rodriguez doesn't push a high pace. He sees Rodriguez as competent off his back but not a submission threat.

Paul picks Lee, citing his wrestling and the fact that Rodriguez is taking the fight on short notice. He thinks Lee's best path is wrestling, and that Rodriguez's 10th Planet jiu-jitsu is mostly off his back. Paul is concerned about Lee's weight cuts but believes at 170 he'll perform better. He says he'll watch weigh-ins before betting.

The Guru picks Kevin Lee after flipping back and forth, ultimately trusting Lee's wrestling and reach advantage. He notes that Rodriguez took the fight on short notice while eating hot dogs at Disneyland, which affects his preparation. The Guru predicts a rear-naked choke in the first or second round, but acknowledges Rodriguez could win by TKO in the later rounds if it goes that far.

Angelo picks Petroski, citing his dominant wrestling and clear path to victory. He notes Petroski lost to Battle when he didn't set up takedowns, but expects him to wrestle and win. He thinks the odds are wide and Petroski shouldn't be a 3-1 favorite.

Cody picks Petroski but is wary of the -525 price. He notes Petroski's wrestling background and that Gillmore has poor takedown defense. However, Cody points out Petroski's cardio issues and that he faded in previous fights. He thinks Petroski should win early but is not confident enough to bet heavily at such short odds.

Jacob picks Petroski, agreeing he should dominate with wrestling. He warns Petroski must be boring and shoot takedowns, not exchange strikes with Gillmore who has power. He stayed away from betting because Gillmore is live.

Lock is very confident in Petroski, making the under 1.5 rounds his lock of the night. He cites the massive grappling gap, with Petroski having a strong wrestling and jiu-jitsu background while Gillmore has shown no takedown defense and poor grappling. Lock expects Petroski to get the fight to the ground quickly and finish via submission or ground-and-pound, likely in round one. He likes Petroski round one at +110 as the best prop.

Paul picks Petroski but calls it a 'cupcake matchup' and notes the banana peel pricing. He thinks Petroski's wrestling will dominate Gillmore, but he is concerned about Petroski's cardio and the fact that he hasn't shown durability or deep cardio. Paul says he won't be the contrarian but doesn't feel as confident as the line suggests.

The Guru picks Andre Petroski, noting his strong performance on TUF until a submission loss. He dismisses Micheal Gillmore's record as unimpressive and believes Petroski will grind out a submission win in the third round. The Guru views this as a showcase for Petroski to prove his TUF loss was a fluke.

Angelo picks Muradov, citing his clean boxing, takedown defense, and ability to survive on the ground. He notes Meerschaert lacks offensive wrestling and relies on others to take him down. He spent the 9300 on Muradov in DraftKings and thinks he's worth it.

Cody picks Muradov, citing his speed advantage and technical boxing. He notes that Muradov has shown finishing ability in later rounds, which is good if Meerschaert survives early. Cody thinks Meerschaert is chinny and will get knocked out. He prefers Muradov inside the distance and likes the over 1.5 rounds as a bet.

Jacob picks Muradov, calling Meerschaert a poor man's Michael Chiesa without the wrestling. He believes Muradov will run through Meerschaert and get a TKO/KO. He has Muradov in his lineup and thinks 9300 is good value.

Lock picks Muradov to win inside the distance, believing his speed and striking will be too much for Meerschaert. He notes Muradov is a big favorite and expects a finish, though he's unsure of the round. Lock likes round props for Muradov (round 2 +450, round 3 +900) rather than method of victory due to juiced lines. He acknowledges Meerschaert's size and clinch potential but thinks Muradov's speed is the difference.

Paul picks Muradov, agreeing that Meerschaert is chinny and that Muradov's boxing will find the chin. He notes that Muradov has finished fights in the third round, showing cardio and power. Paul thinks Meerschaert's only path is submission, but he doesn't see it happening. He says Muradov by knockout is -175 and inside the distance is -200.

The Guru picks Makhmud Muradov, criticizing Gerald Meerschaert's fight IQ and tendency to fold against hyped contenders. He expects Muradov to stuff takedowns, land body knees, and pour on pressure for a second-round TKO. The Guru notes Meerschaert's grappling is based on opponents' mistakes, which Muradov won't make.

Angelo picks Di Chirico, citing his versatile kickboxing and forward pressure. He notes Alhassan has a clear path via judo but may get sucked into striking. He has Alhassan in his DraftKings lineup at 7300 hoping he uses judo, but his official pick is Di Chirico.

Cody picks Di Chirico, emphasizing his durability and ability to survive early power shots. He notes that Alhassan is one-dimensional and has poor cardio, while Di Chirico has a solid chin and fights well into later rounds. Cody thinks Di Chirico will weather the storm and take over as the fight goes on. He also suggests a live bet opportunity if Alhassan looks good early.

Jacob picks Di Chirico but is hesitant due to Alhassan's power. He notes Alhassan has never won outside the first round and compares him to Cody Garbrandt for headhunting. He thinks Di Chirico should win but it's a toss-up.

Lock picks Di Chirico by decision at +180, expecting him to grind out Alhassan after the first round. He notes Alhassan is dangerous early but gasses, while Di Chirico is durable and will take over in rounds 2 and 3. Lock likes the over 2.5 rounds at +100 as well. He acknowledges Alhassan could win by KO early but thinks Di Chirico's wrestling and low-volume style lead to a decision.

Paul picks Di Chirico, noting that Alhassan is a one-dimensional power puncher who fades, while Di Chirico has proven durability and has beaten similar fighters. He points out that Alhassan has lost as a big favorite before and that Di Chirico's ability to go the distance gives him the edge. Paul thinks Di Chirico will win by decision or late finish.

The Guru picks Alessio Di Chirico, citing his size, reach, chin, and cardio advantages over Abdul Razak Alhassan, who has looked bloated and out of shape since his rape case. He notes Di Chirico's close fights with top competition and expects him to win all three rounds, possibly using grappling after seeing Alhassan get out-grappled by Jacob Malkoun.

Angelo picks Turman, citing his BJJ black belt, slick ground game, and clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes training feedback from Dan Cramer that Turman feels good. He acknowledges Alvey's deceptive power but believes Turman will get the submission.

Cody picks Alvey as a dog, citing his strong takedown defense and power. He notes that Turman has poor takedown accuracy and tends to lose position on the ground. Cody thinks Alvey's veteran savvy and ability to fight 15 minutes will pay off. He is concerned about Alvey's recent losing streak but believes the style matchup favors him.

Jacob picks Turman but is hesitant, noting Turman was knocked out cold two months ago and may be hesitant. He agrees the UFC is feeding Alvey to Turman, but warns Alvey is tough and could win if he eats shots. He stayed away from betting.

Lock picks Alvey by KO at +300, believing Alvey's power and durability will be too much for Turman. He notes Turman has shown poor durability, getting knocked out by Andrew Sanchez and Bruno Silva. Lock thinks Alvey's takedown defense and clinch strength will keep the fight standing, where he can land a big shot. He expects Alvey to win minutes only by knockout, not decision.

Paul picks Alvey, surprised himself but noting that Turman is the exact type of fighter Alvey can beat. He highlights Alvey's takedown defense and left hand power. Paul thinks Turman's grappling is overrated and that he tires easily. He expects Alvey to win by knockout or decision.

The Guru picks Sam Alvey as an underdog, questioning Wellington Turman's chin after two consecutive KO losses and his quick return. He believes Alvey's toughness, cardio, and grappling awareness will allow him to outlast Turman and win a unanimous decision. The Guru dismisses Turman's grappling threat and expects Alvey to display veteran savvy.

Angelo picks Jacoby, citing his Muay Thai striking adapted to MMA, size advantage, and Stewart's chin issues. He notes Stewart is moving up in weight and has lost two in a row. He has an inside the distance bet on Jacoby and likes the less less on monkey knife fight.

Cody leans toward Jacoby but is not confident. He notes Jacoby's poor cardio and unimpressive UFC performances, but thinks his striking should be enough against Stewart, who is a natural middleweight. Cody considers Stewart's wrestling a threat but believes Jacoby's size and striking will allow him to pull away. He says the smart move is a pass but he'll probably end up taking Jacoby in parlays.

Jacob picks Jacoby, emphasizing his ability to dictate pressure and steal rounds with fight IQ. He notes Stewart took an easy way out in his last fight and that Jacoby's takedowns are better. He expects Jacoby to win, possibly by decision.

Lock picks Jacoby by KO at +300, citing the size and striking skill advantage. He thinks Stewart will struggle to close distance and Jacoby's leg kicks and boxing will be effective. Lock likes the under 2.5 rounds at +150 as well, expecting a striking match that ends early. He notes Stewart has power but is hittable and has been knocked out before.

Paul leans toward Jacoby but is hesitant. He notes Jacoby's cardio issues and Stewart's wrestling, but thinks Jacoby's kickboxing should give him an edge. Paul says he'll watch the weigh-ins and might add Jacoby to parlays. He is not fully confident and considers passing.

The Guru picks Dustin Jacoby, noting his size and reach advantage over Darren Stewart, who is a small middleweight moving up. He expects Jacoby's takedown defense and striking to be too much, predicting a TKO in the second round via leg kicks and body work. The Guru believes Stewart's only path is grappling, but Jacoby's improved defense will nullify that.

Angelo picks Aldrich, citing her veteran experience, grinding style, and ability to bully Demopoulos against the cage. He notes Demopoulos is moving up in weight on short notice, lacks power, and has been taken down before. He expects Aldrich to win a unanimous decision.

Cody picks Aldrich confidently, citing her technical striking and massive reach advantage (8 inches). He notes that Demopoulos has poor striking and no wrestling, relying on jiu-jitsu. Cody thinks Aldrich will keep the fight standing and pick Demopoulos apart with jabs and kicks. He is not worried about the Apex cage because women's flyweights don't need much space.

Jacob picks Demopoulos, calling her a female Ryan Hall who loves heel hooks and imanari rolls. He believes she will get the fight to the ground and submit Aldrich. He almost made her his lock of the week and has a bet on her by submission.

Lock picks Aldrich by decision at -145, believing her striking and size advantage will control the fight. He notes Aldrich's straight shots and forward pressure will be too much for Demopoulos, who is a punching bag on the feet. Lock thinks Aldrich can win anywhere but prefers to keep it standing. He acknowledges Demopoulos has submission threats but doubts she can get them.

Paul picks Aldrich, agreeing with the reach advantage and noting that Demopoulos has a 59-inch reach. He thinks Aldrich will use her jab and movement to win a decision. Paul is slightly concerned about Demopoulos' jiu-jitsu if she gets top position, but believes Aldrich's takedown defense will hold up.

The Guru picks JJ Aldrich confidently, citing her underrated skills, experience against tough competition, and training at a high-level gym with Rose Namajunas and Valentina Shevchenko. He notes that Vanessa Demopoulos lost on the Contender Series and has not faced the same level of opponents. The Guru expects Aldrich to win by decision.

Angelo picks Emmers, highlighting his superior striking and wrestling defense to keep the fight standing. He notes Emmers is the only one who hung with Giga Chikadze, and that Sabatini's takedowns may not be enough. He acknowledges Sabatini is a dog but believes Emmers' wrestling background gives him the edge.

Cody picks Sabatini as a dog, citing Emmers' poor ring IQ and tendency to lose close fights. He notes that Emmers doesn't pull the trigger on takedowns and has underachieved. Sabatini is well-rounded, has good cardio, and comes from a solid camp. Cody thinks Sabatini's volume and aggression could earn him a decision.

Jacob calls Sabatini the lock of the week, citing his championship mentality, relentless wrestling, and submission threat. He notes Emmers has already lost to a lock of the week (Chaz Skelly) and quit in the locker room. He believes Sabatini will finish the fight via submission.

Lock picks Emmers by decision at +135, believing Emmers' striking and cardio advantage will be decisive. He thinks Sabatini will grapple early but Emmers' defensive grappling and clinch work will nullify him. Lock expects Emmers to pull away in rounds 2 and 3, winning a decision. He likes the over 1.5 rounds as well.

Paul picks Sabatini, agreeing that Emmers has low ring IQ and that Sabatini is a solid underdog. He notes Sabatini's grappling and cardio, and thinks he can outwork Emmers. Paul says he'll tail Cody on this pick.

The Guru picks Jamall Emmers as an underdog, citing his reach and height advantages, sound fundamentals, and close fights with top competition. He acknowledges Pat Sabatini could out-grapple Emmers, but believes Emmers' takedown defense and striking will earn a unanimous decision. The Guru notes Sabatini's holes in stand-up and short arms as key factors.

Angelo picks Martinez, citing his solid power, aggression, and constant stance switches that complicate things for opponents. He notes Cannetti is over 40, losing by stoppage, and needs to get the fight to the ground to win, which is unlikely. The only concern is Martinez's headspace after his coach died, but he still sees a mismatch.

Cody picks Martinez confidently, citing his power in both hands and aggressive style. He notes that Cannetti is 41 years old, has been knocked out multiple times, and looked old in his last fight. Cody thinks Martinez's takedown defense is solid and that he will knock Cannetti out early, likely in round one.

Jacob picks Martinez, emphasizing his power that hits like a middleweight and Cannetti's flat-footed movement and age. He expects Martinez to dominate and likely flatline Cannetti inside two and a half minutes. He plans to bet on a first-round stoppage for better odds.

Lock picks Martinez by KO at -110, expecting a violent fight. He notes both fighters have finishing ability and poor cardio, leading to an early finish. Lock likes the under 1.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision props. He thinks Martinez's power and durability give him the edge, but acknowledges Cannetti can crack too.

Paul picks Martinez, agreeing that he has power and that Cannetti is old and faded. He notes Martinez's wins over Ricky Turcios and Jose Johnson, showing he can finish good opponents. Paul thinks Martinez's takedown defense will keep the fight standing and lead to a knockout. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds and Martinez inside the distance.

The Guru picks Mana Martinez, citing his youth, momentum, and knockout power against the older Guido Cannetti, who is coming off a KO loss. He expects Martinez to start fast and finish by TKO in the first round. The Guru notes Cannetti's age (41) and history of being finished as key factors.