UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, noting his improvements in striking and his wrestling dominance. He acknowledges Arman Tsarukyan's takedown of Makhachev in their first fight but believes Makhachev's size, cardio, and overall game will prevail. He mentions Tsarukyan's chin being questionable after being dropped by a 40-year-old Silva.

Cody picks Islam Makhachev to retain, citing Islam's championship experience, improved wrestling, and ability to handle five rounds. He notes that Arman Tsarukyan has improved but still relies heavily on wrestling and tends to tire in later rounds. Cody also mentions that Islam has already beaten Tsarukyan once and has only gotten better since. He suggests a live bet strategy or a small hedge on Tsarukyan if the parlay is still alive.

Connor picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior poise, technical striking, and defensive wrestling. He notes that Makhachev has become one of the best strikers in the division with a calm, principled approach, while Arman still fights with tension and wastes energy. Connor emphasizes that Makhachev's ability to stay relaxed and make good decisions under pressure gives him a clear edge, especially given their first fight where Makhachev outlasted Arman. He acknowledges Arman's improvements in finishing ability but believes Makhachev's overall game has grown more.

Daniel picks Moicano as a significant underdog, citing that Makhachev's days at 155 are numbered and he is looking to move up to 170. He notes that Makhachev has shown vulnerability in recent fights, with Dustin Poirier stuffing 11 takedowns and Volkanovski stuffing 5. Daniel believes Moicano can match Makhachev's wrestling and has dangerous kicks and knockout power, as seen against Benoit Saint-Denis. He also mentions the location in Los Angeles with a large Armenian population as a motivating factor for Moicano.

Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior striking improvements against top competition like Dustin Poirier, Alexander Volkanovski, and Charles Oliveira. He expects the fight to feature more striking than their first bout, where Arman Tsarukyan was hesitant. James notes Islam's experience in five-round fights and counter-wrestling as key advantages, but acknowledges Arman's improved striking and power as potential threats. He mentions Islam's chin as a vulnerability, having been wobbled before, but ultimately believes Islam's overall skill set and prime condition will prevail.

The host acknowledges Tsarukyan has improved since their first fight and his power striking could cause issues. However, he believes Makhachev will create grappling opportunities and squeeze out a decision victory. He likes the fight to go to decision and does not like the heavy chalk on Makhachev but still expects him to win.

Paul agrees with Cody that Islam Makhachev will retain, noting that Islam has learned from the first fight and has a better understanding of Tsarukyan's style. He acknowledges Tsarukyan's knockout potential but believes Islam's experience and preparation will prevail. Paul also points out that Islam is a rightful favorite and a parlay piece for him this week.

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win a close decision. He argues that Arman Tsarukyan cannot finish Makhachev and is unlikely to win a decision due to Makhachev's status. He notes Makhachev's clinch work and body knees are key weapons, and he expects Makhachev to win 3-2 or 4-1 on the scorecards. He also mentions that Tsarukyan's low kicks are not as effective as he remembered.

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev. He highlights Makhachev's unflappable poise and technical striking, contrasting it with Arman's all-or-nothing style that led to his loss in the first fight. Zane notes that Makhachev has improved significantly since then, becoming a more complete fighter, while Arman still tends to expend energy recklessly. He also points out that Makhachev's southpaw stance could trouble Arman, who hasn't looked great against southpaws. Zane acknowledges Arman's increased violence and finishing ability but believes Makhachev's calmness and defensive skills will prevail.

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, citing his superior wrestling and striking compared to Merab Dvalishvili. He believes Umar's kicks and range management will keep Merab at bay, and his scramble skills will neutralize Merab's takedown attempts. He notes that Merab's cardio is a factor but thinks Umar's overall skills will win out.

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov but is hesitant due to the price. He believes Umar has the style to beat Merab, with superior wrestling and striking, and can thwart takedowns. However, he notes Merab's incredible pace and durability, and that Umar's line is too high. Cody also points out that Merab has been taken down before and struggles off his back, but Umar's lack of top competition and the value on Merab give him pause.

Connor picks Umar Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his excellent boxing, jab, and ability to maintain range. He notes that Umar has faced similar pressure fighters before (like Cody Stamann and Raoni Barcelos) and shut them down with his positional striking. Connor warns that Merab's unique cardio and pace make him dangerous, but Umar's technical striking and takedown defense should allow him to win rounds. He also points out that Umar cannot afford to make the same mistakes he made against Cory Sandhagen, where he took risky scrambles. Connor believes Umar's game plan of using the jab and staying at range is the key to beating Merab.

Daniel picks Umar but is hesitant, acknowledging Merab's proven ability to make great fighters look human. He notes Umar's striking edge and length, and believes the grappling will neutralize itself. However, he is concerned about Merab's pace and toughness, and mentions that Merab has been hurt on the feet before. Daniel ultimately goes with Umar to become the new champion but says he is not betting on the fight.

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov to become champion, citing his long-held belief in Umar's potential and his superior striking, range control, and jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges Merab's legendary cardio and pressure as major threats, but questions whether Merab can impose his physicality and wrestling on Umar, who is a strong wrestler himself. James notes Umar's lack of adversity faced as a concern, but credits his skill for avoiding trouble. He sees Umar having finishing upside via submission or back takes, while Merab's path likely relies on pace and volume in later rounds.

The host thinks Dvalishvili is up against it coming back quickly after winning the title in September. He believes Nurmagomedov will stifle Dvalishvili's high activity, stop takedowns, land better output, and possibly knock him down. He expects Nurmagomedov to win on the scorecards and become the new champion.

Paul leans Umar but is not confident due to the price. He acknowledges Merab's skills but believes Umar's wrestling and striking are superior. Paul notes that Merab's takedown-heavy style may not work against a wrestler of Umar's caliber, and that Merab has been taken down before. However, he also points out that Umar hasn't fought elite competition and the line is too high, making Merab a value play.

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by TKO in round two or three. He believes Umar is more dynamic on the feet with better finishing potential, and can stuff Merab's takedowns. He expects Umar to land a question mark kick or front kick for a KO. He also notes Merab's age and quick turnaround may be factors.

Zane also picks Umar, agreeing with Connor's reasoning. He highlights Umar's excellent boxing and jab, and his experience against pressure fighters. Zane notes that Merab's lack of a range striking game is a major weakness, and Umar has the tools to exploit it. He cautions that Merab's cardio and relentless pace make him dangerous, but Umar's ability to keep the fight at range and stuff takedowns should give him the edge. Zane also mentions that the odds are too wide, but he still believes Umar is the right pick.

Angelo flips his pick to Jiří Procházka after initially favoring Jamal Hill. He cites Hill's poor weight management (claiming to be 240 lbs), delusion about his loss to Pereira, and lack of recent training. He believes Procházka's relentless pressure, durability, and never-quit attitude will overwhelm Hill, who has been inactive and may not be in proper fight shape.

Cody picks Jamahal Hill, viewing him as a value play. He criticizes Procházka's defensive liabilities, wild style, and lack of a fallback grappling game. Cody notes that Procházka has been knocked out multiple times and relies on landing a big shot. In contrast, Hill is a volume striker with a good jab and right hand, and his only bad performance was on short notice against Pereira. Cody believes Hill's striking volume and durability will be key, and that Procházka's style plays into Hill's hands.

Connor picks Procházka, citing his sustained pressure and ability to overwhelm opponents. He notes that Procházka's messy but systematic style is more reliable than Hill's self-taught, technically flawed approach. Connor points out that Hill's footwork is terrible, with crossed feet and a narrow stance, making him vulnerable to pressure. He believes that if Hill doesn't knock Procházka out early, Procházka's pressure will break him down. Connor also mentions that Procházka's recent loss to Pereira might affect his confidence, but his win over Rakic shows he still has the same grit.

Daniel picks Hill, citing his volume as the best in light heavyweight history. He notes that Hill's durability and accuracy should be the difference, and that Procházka's defense is a concern. Daniel mentions that he took Hill at +100 earlier and believes the line should be closer to -150. He acknowledges both fighters have knockout power but thinks Hill can outclass Procházka.

Lucrative James picks Jamahal Hill via knockout, emphasizing Hill's power, volume, and ability to hurt opponents. He notes that Procházka gets hit frequently and has been dropped in many fights, while Hill has shown durability and heart, even with a broken arm against Paul Craig. James believes Hill's clean striking and cardio are on par with Procházka's, making it difficult for Procházka to break him late. He acknowledges recency bias from Hill's knockout loss to Alex Pereira but still favors Hill's striking accuracy and power.

The host leans with the power striking and pressure of Procházka. If his durability holds up, he should be able to pressure Hill, walk through his offense, land big shots, break him, and finish him within 10 minutes.

Paul leans Hill but is less confident than Cody. He prefers the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as a parlay piece, expecting a knockout. Paul notes that Procházka is a wild striker who gets hit a lot, and Hill has good durability. However, he points out Hill's takedown defense issues (Thiago Santos fight) as a potential path for Procházka. Paul thinks someone's head will get knocked off, and he leans Hill based on volume and chin.

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Procházka. He emphasizes that Procházka's pressure and ability to force chaotic fights will be too much for Hill. Zane notes that Hill's technical flaws, especially his footwork and tendency to trade shots, play into Procházka's strengths. He also points out that Hill's path to the title was against aging fighters, while Procházka has faced tougher competition. Zane acknowledges the risk of Hill's power but believes Procházka's durability and pressure will win out.

Angelo is very confident in Jailton Almeida, citing his dominant wrestling and takedown ability against all opponents, including elite wrestlers like Curtis Blaydes. He believes Spivac will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Almeida's grappling is on another level. He considers -250 affordable and suggests parlay with Zachary Reese.

Cody picks Jailton Almeida as a top-line parlay piece. He highlights Almeida's takedown ability, having taken down everyone he's faced, including Curtis Blaydes nine times. Cody notes that Spivac has not faced strong wrestlers and has been taken down by older fighters. He believes Almeida will get takedowns, establish top control, and grapple his way to a win, possibly a finish. Cody acknowledges heavyweight volatility but trusts Almeida's skills.

Daniel picks Almeida, believing his takedown ability is elite and that he will take Spivac down and finish him. He notes that Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes and Romanov easily, and that Spivac does not have the same wrestling credentials. Daniel acknowledges Spivac's improvements but thinks Almeida's grappling is too much. He is not betting due to the high price.

The host expects Almeida to do exactly what he did to Alexander Romanov: grab the body lock, find a trip, get top position, and smash Spivac until he gets a TKO stoppage.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Almeida. He notes the massive grappling disparity and believes Almeida's takedown onslaught will be too much for Spivac. Paul mentions that Spivac's path to victory is to survive the early onslaught and hope Almeida gasses, but he thinks Almeida will get the job done. He also notes that Almeida has shown improvement in finishing fights.

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Serghei Spivac. He expects Almeida to win a decision, possibly spending time in bad positions but using athleticism to escape submission attempts. He notes Spivac is technical and not easily bulldozed, but Almeida's athleticism will carry him. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Almeida.

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder but with hesitation. He believes de Ridder can exploit Kevin Holland's takedown defense and win via grappling. However, he worries about de Ridder's reckless ground decision-making, as seen in his UFC debut where he gave up positions. He thinks Holland's durability and jiu-jitsu could make it a decision win for de Ridder.

Cody picks Reinier de Ridder, citing the blueprint to beat Kevin Holland: take him down and control him. He notes that Holland struggles with wrestlers at middleweight, as seen against Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori. De Ridder is a large middleweight with strong judo and grappling, and Cody believes he will close the distance, clinch, and take Holland down repeatedly. He also points out that Holland has never faced an opponent taller than him, but de Ridder is 6'4". Cody expects a submission or dominant decision.

Connor picks de Ridder, citing his size, grappling, and ability to bait Holland into a grappling exchange. He notes that Holland's core is a BJJ player who sees wrestling as an invitation to grapple, which plays into de Ridder's strengths. Connor points out that de Ridder is huge and tough, and even though he's a poor striker, his lead hand and jab can set up takedowns. He believes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to engage in losing grappling battles will lead to a de Ridder win. Connor also mentions that de Ridder has only lost to massive powerhouses, which Holland is not.

Daniel picks de Ridder, continuing his fade of Kevin Holland. He notes that de Ridder attempted 13 takedowns in his debut and believes he only needs to take Holland down once to win. Daniel thinks de Ridder will submit Holland and took him at +126 for 2 units. He mentions that Holland is a prize fighter without title aspirations, while de Ridder is hungry.

Lucrative James picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his superior grappling and jiu-jitsu, which should exploit Kevin Holland's known weakness against grapplers. He notes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to abandon game plans, while de Ridder's judo trips and submissions (arm triangle, rear-naked choke) are live threats. James believes de Ridder only needs a couple of takedowns to win rounds or secure a submission, and that Holland's rangy striking style plays into de Ridder's comfort zone. He also questions Holland's motivation, contrasting it with de Ridder's title aspirations.

The host notes de Ridder had a successful UFC debut and wants to showcase his BJJ. Holland is also a BJJ black belt with a striking advantage, but the host thinks Holland will struggle to keep de Ridder off him, leading to de Ridder finding a dominant position and getting a submission victory.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking de Ridder. He notes that Holland has always struggled with takedown defense at middleweight and that de Ridder's grappling should be the difference. Paul was impressed with de Ridder's submission win over Gerald Meerschaert and believes the same game plan will work against Holland. He advises de Ridder to avoid striking exchanges and lean on takedowns early and often.

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder to submit Kevin Holland. He notes Holland is a fish out of water when taken down, and de Ridder has a massive strength advantage. He expects de Ridder to get on top and submit Holland early or in the second round. He also questions Holland's quitting tendency.

Zane also picks de Ridder, agreeing with Connor. He emphasizes that Holland's willingness to engage in grappling exchanges will be his downfall. Zane notes that de Ridder's size and grappling ability will allow him to control the fight once it hits the mat. He points out that Holland has been taken down and controlled by lesser grapplers, and de Ridder is a significant step up. Zane also mentions that Holland's striking is inconsistent, and even if he has a good boxing performance, he'll likely abandon it for grappling.

Angelo is extremely confident in Payton Talbott, citing his youth, speed, and striking ability. He believes the age and speed gap will be decisive and expects Talbott to potentially knock out Barcelos. He warns against betting Talbott at -1200, calling it too risky.

Cody picks Payton Talbott confidently, viewing him as a rising star. He notes Talbott's exceptional striking, athleticism, and rapidly improving takedown defense. Cody points out that Barcelos is 37 and has slowed down, with recent losses showing regression in wrestling, striking defense, and reflexes. He believes Talbott's speed and power will be too much, and that Barcelos's best days are behind him. Cody expects Talbott to win dominantly, possibly by knockout.

Daniel picks Talbott by knockout, citing his volume, power, and swag. He notes that Barcelos is almost 40 and has taken too much damage in recent fights. Daniel mentions that Barcelos is a savvy vet but Talbott is quicker, younger, and more durable. He says he cannot lay -1200 but expects Talbott to win by knockout.

The host is a huge Barcelos fan but acknowledges Talbott is a much slicker striker who uses speed and power to land big shots. He expects Talbott to put Barcelos away in under one and a half rounds.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Talbott. He notes that Talbott looks like he's in the Matrix and is a new-generation fighter. Paul believes Barcelos is too slow and past his prime, and that Talbott's speed and striking will be decisive. He also mentions that Barcelos has been taken down and outworked by younger fighters recently. Paul is not stepping in front of the Talbott train.

The MMA Guru picks Payton Talbott to win by TKO. He notes Barcelos' chin is deteriorating with age (37), and Talbott is a big bantamweight with reach advantage. He worries about Talbott's activity and social media distractions but believes he will catch Barcelos on the feet. He predicts a KO late in the first or second round.

Angelo picks Zachary Reese, calling him the better fighter overall. He notes Reese's size, power, and well-rounded skills, while criticizing Cedric Dumas' lack of ground game and reliance on corner instructions. He believes the -260 price is a discount and expects the line to widen further.

Cody picks Zachary Reese as an underdog, citing his size (6'4", 77-inch reach) and well-rounded skills. He notes that Bekoev has been underwhelming in the US and has a split decision win over Dylan Budka, who has struggled in the UFC. Reese has shown good striking, grappling, and cardio in his recent fights. Cody believes Reese's length and submission threat will be problematic for Bekoev, especially if the fight goes to the ground. He plans to watch more tape but leans Reese.

The host notes Bekoev is the LFA middleweight champion making a short-notice UFC debut. If Bekoev can use his wrestling to stay safe early, he should put Reese through the ringer and win on the scorecards.

Paul leans Reese as a dog, noting the size advantage and that Bekoev's win over Budka is not impressive. He mentions that Reese has shown cardio and takedown ability in his last fight. Paul is skeptical of the 'Russian tax' and thinks the line is off. He plans to watch more tape but is leaning towards taking the shot on Reese at plus money.

The MMA Guru picks Azamat Bekoev over Zachary Reese but is hesitant. He notes Reese lost to Cody Brundage and is not impressed, while Bekoev has momentum and is coming into his prime. He acknowledges Reese could be too athletic and land shots early, but he sides with Bekoev's grappling and recent wins. He predicts a decision win for Bekoev.

Angelo picks Bogdan Guskov, citing his power and ability to find the chin, especially against Johnny Walker who has a weak chin. He notes that if Guskov cannot knock out Walker, he should be sent on his way. He suggests betting Guskov inside the distance with a 'no action' refund if it goes to decision.

Cody does not have a clear pick. He expresses doubt about Guskov, noting that Guskov has been a betting underdog in all his UFC fights and has shown flaws: he was losing to Zach Pauga before a KO, and gassed against Ryan Spann. Cody also questions Guskov's chin and ground game. However, he is not confident in Elekana either, who is taking the fight on short notice and has not impressed at 205. Cody ultimately passes on betting this fight.

Daniel picks Guskov, noting his big power and experience against ranked opponents. He thinks Elekana is green and took the fight on short notice. Daniel believes Guskov can back Elekana up and land something big. He is not betting due to the price but expects Guskov to win.

The host describes Guskov as having power punching but defensive grappling issues. Elekana is a solid striker with BJJ chops. The host expects Elekana to counter Guskov effectively and either club and sub him or knock him out inside the distance.

Paul also has no clear pick. He agrees with Cody that Guskov is not trustworthy as a big favorite, and Elekana is unproven. Paul considers a live bet on Elekana if Guskov shows fatigue, but does not commit to a pre-fight pick. He notes that Elekana has never been knocked out, which could provide value if Guskov fades.

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov to win by KO. He notes Guskov has knockout power and is a dangerous fighter, while Elekana is taking the fight on short notice for his debut. He expects Guskov to win by KO.

Angelo picks Grant Dawson to win, expecting his relentless wrestling and control to be effective. However, he plans to bet on Diego Ferreira via 'inside the distance decision no action' prop, believing Ferreira is tough enough to avoid being finished and could potentially finish Dawson. He acknowledges Dawson's boring style but respects his wrestling.

Cody picks Grant Dawson but is hesitant. He acknowledges Dawson's excellent wrestling and cardio, but notes his chin has been exposed (Bobby Green KO, Ricky Glenn draw). Dawson has taken down strong wrestlers like Mark Madsen and Ismagulov. Ferreira is a dangerous striker and BJJ black belt who has been taken down many times but often survives. Cody believes Dawson's wrestling will be the difference, but Ferreira's power and submission threat make it risky. He moves Dawson down in his parlay.

Daniel picks Ferreira, citing his elite Jiu-Jitsu and striking advantage. He notes that Dawson is one-dimensional and has been knocked out before. Daniel is concerned about Ferreira's age (40) but thinks his ground game and striking are superior. He mentions that Dawson's losses are exciting because he gets knocked out, and Ferreira could exploit Dawson's holes.

The host points out Ferreira turns 40 on fight day and expects him to show decline. Dawson is a streaking contender who should implement his wrestling, break down Ferreira, and finish him in the second or third round.

Paul picks Ferreira as an underdog. He notes that Ferreira is a more refined striker with knockout power and a BJJ black belt, giving him multiple paths to victory. Paul points out that Dawson has been knocked out and has cardio issues in later rounds. Ferreira has shown he can survive takedowns and submit opponents. Paul believes Ferreira's chaotic striking and opportunistic submissions will cause problems for Dawson, and at plus money, he sees value.

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira over Grant Dawson. He highlights Ferreira's scrambling ability against elite grapplers like Gamrot and Dariush, and his power in his hands with nasty knockout ability. He notes Ferreira's recent momentum, including a win over Rebecki and a knockout of Michael Johnson. He worries about Dawson if he can't get his grappling going, and believes Ferreira will win.

Angelo picks Ailín Pérez as an underdog, believing her wrestling and forward pressure will be too much for Karol Rosa, who hasn't faced a strong wrestler recently. He notes that Rosa's takedown defense is untested against a wrestler of Pérez's style. He has a small bet on Pérez at +150 and is surprised the odds are widening instead of tightening.

Cody picks Ailín Pérez as an underdog, citing her wrestling and top control. He notes that Pérez has taken down all her UFC opponents and has improved rapidly at Fortis MMA. Rosa has poor takedown defense and no get-up game once taken down, as seen against Sarah McMahon and Norma Dumont. Cody believes Pérez will take Rosa down, control her, and win rounds. He also mentions that Rosa has no power and all her wins are by decision, so Pérez only needs to win the first two rounds.

Daniel picks Pérez for the upset, noting that he has lost money betting on Rosa multiple times. He believes Pérez's relentless takedown attack and improved standup will be key. Daniel thinks if Pérez takes Rosa down, she can win. He mentions that Rosa has poor takedown defense and has faded in fights.

Lucrative James picks Karol Rosa, stating she is the better overall MMA fighter with superior striking, cardio, experience, and grappling. He acknowledges Ailín Pérez's tenacious wrestling and potential to cause problems early, but notes Pérez's poor cardio and striking, which often leads to her fading in round three. James observes that Rosa typically has her best round in the third, while Pérez fades, making a late stoppage or decision win for Rosa likely. He understands the appeal of Pérez as a big underdog due to her grappling, but ultimately favors Rosa's well-rounded game.

The host believes Rosa has a significant striking advantage and can stay upright against Perez's grinding grappling. He expects Rosa to chop away at the lead leg and possibly muster a late finish, but ultimately win on the scorecards.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Pérez. He notes that if the fight becomes a grappling match, Pérez has the advantage. Paul acknowledges that Pérez's cardio has been problematic in round three, but believes she can win the first two rounds. At plus 210, he sees plenty of value. He also mentions that Rosa has no power, so Pérez can afford to slow down late.

The MMA Guru picks Karol Rosa over Ailín Pérez. He argues that Rosa is better at MMA overall, with great takedown defense, ability to get back to her feet, and striking that doesn't look amateurish. He notes Rosa has competed with top division fighters like Irene Aldana and Norma Dumont, and outlanded Aldana. He sees this as a step up for Pérez against a real MMA fighter.

Angelo is very confident in Rinya Nakamura, highlighting his high-level wrestling, power, and the fact that Muin Gafurov was taken down three times by Kyung Ho Kang. He believes Nakamura's wrestling advantage will be decisive and that the -400 price is justified, unlike other favorites on the card.

Cody picks Rinya Nakamura confidently, viewing him as a top prospect. He highlights Nakamura's Olympic-level wrestling, fluid transitions, and improving striking. Cody notes that Gafurov has poor takedown defense and tends to gas, as seen against John Castaneda. Nakamura's wrestling and cardio should be too much. Cody expects Nakamura to take Gafurov down repeatedly and control the fight, possibly earning a finish. Nakamura is part of the Saftic Super Boost.

Daniel picks Nakamura, citing his physicality, strong grappling, and good hands. He notes that Gafurov is well-rounded but lacks athleticism and can be out-hustled. Daniel expects a competitive decision but thinks Nakamura grinds out the win. He is not betting due to the high price.

The host sees Nakamura as the future of the division, praising his wrestling, chain wrestling, and knockout power. He expects Nakamura to use a combination of those traits to win a decision over Gafurov.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Nakamura. He notes that Gafurov has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Nakamura's wrestling pedigree is elite. Paul believes Nakamura will find takedowns early and often, banking control time. He also mentions that a submission is possible but not guaranteed. Nakamura is a solid parlay piece for Paul.

The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura but expresses hesitation. He worries about Nakamura's wrestling-heavy style that may not translate to finishes in MMA, similar to Raul Rosas Jr. However, he notes that Muin Gafurov is 'fat and terrible' and that Nakamura has dangerous stand-up with pop on his punches. He also likes that Nakamura had time off to fix issues and expects him to come in good form.

Angelo picks Benardo Sopaj, citing his speed, power, takedown defense, and overall skill advantage over Ricky Turcios. He acknowledges Turcios' high pace and pressure but believes Sopaj can slow it down and take advantage of the skill gap. However, he warns against betting Sopaj at -400 due to the risk from his recent knockout loss.

Cody picks Benardo Sopaj, noting that the line is 100 points better than when the fight was first booked. He believes Sopaj is a legitimate prospect with strong wrestling and improving striking. Turcios has poor takedown defense, as seen against Kevin Natividad and Brady Hiestand, and his wins are split decisions. Sopaj is younger and more dynamic. Cody expects Sopaj to take Turcios down and secure rounds, possibly earning a finish. Sopaj is part of the Saftic Super Boost.

Daniel picks Sopaj, noting that he has never been a fan of Turcios' style. He believes Sopaj is a real prospect with impressive knockouts on the regional scene. Daniel thinks Sopaj's physical attributes and raw skill will overcome Turcios' experience. He mentions that Sopaj's only loss was to a dangerous fighter (Lock Dog) and that Turcios is not a threat.

The host believes Sopaj won fans with a close fight against Vinicius Oliveira and can put on a high-paced fight, landing more damage and outworking Turcios on route to a decision victory.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Sopaj. He notes that Turcios has been taken down multiple times by opponents who committed to wrestling, and Sopaj has the wrestling to do the same. Paul believes Sopaj's power and takedowns will be decisive. He is comfortable adding Sopaj to tickets despite the chalk.

The MMA Guru picks Benardo Sopaj over Ricky Turcios. He heavily criticizes Turcios' mentality and performance, citing low strike accuracy and lack of will to win. He praises Sopaj's short-notice debut against Vinicius Oliveira, where Sopaj won the first round and was winning the second before getting reversed. He believes Sopaj is a good fighter and will get the job done.

Angelo picks Tagir Ulanbekov due to his significant experience advantage (17 fights vs 8) and strong wrestling. He notes that Ulanbekov can be taken down but believes Clayton Carpenter may hesitate, allowing Ulanbekov to impose his game. He warns against betting Ulanbekov at -300, suggesting instead to look for prop bets like Carpenter winning a round.

Cody picks Clayton Carpenter as an underdog, citing Ulanbekov's age (33), inactivity, and injury history. He notes that Ulanbekov has pulled out of seven fights in the UFC and has shown cardio issues. Carpenter is a young, well-rounded prospect with good wrestling and cardio. Cody believes Carpenter can scramble, take Ulanbekov down, and push the pace. He sees value in fading Ulanbekov at flyweight, where the line is too high.

Daniel picks Ulanbekov but is hesitant due to his inactivity and potential weight issues. He notes that Ulanbekov has top-five potential and had a career-best performance against Cody Durden. However, he is concerned that Ulanbekov hasn't fought since 2023 and may have trouble making weight. Daniel thinks Carpenter is a talented young fighter but Ulanbekov is ahead at this point.

Lucrative James does not make a clear winner pick but discusses the over 2.5 rounds prop favorably. He notes both fighters are high-level and unlikely to be finished, though he acknowledges submission upside for Tagir Ulanbekov if he gets the back, and the possibility of a striking exchange leading to a knockout. He leans toward the fight going to decision but does not commit to a side.

The host leans with Ulanbekov because Carpenter is a hot prospect with unknowns in defensive grappling. Ulanbekov may challenge him as no fighter has before. The host expects Ulanbekov to win on the scorecards.

Paul leans Carpenter as a value play. He notes that Ulanbekov's wrestling has not been dominant at flyweight, and he was taken down by Tim Elliott. Carpenter is undefeated and has shown good grappling and cardio. Paul believes if wrestling is negated, the fight is close, and at plus money, Carpenter is worth a shot. He plans to make a play on Carpenter.

The MMA Guru picks Tagir Ulanbekov over Clayton Carpenter. He notes that Carpenter's path to victory relies on grappling against short, stocky flyweights, but Ulanbekov is rangier and has good takedown defense. He believes Ulanbekov is better at range on the feet and has equally good grappling, so he expects Ulanbekov to do more damage at range and win a close fight.