UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev

Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos as a +170 underdog, citing his grappling, size advantage, cardio, and durability. He notes Fiziev is the better striker but has questionable cardio, especially in a 5-round fight. He points out that RDA has not lost in 6 years without being taken down, and Fiziev is unlikely to initiate takedowns. He already has a moneyline bet on RDA at +170.

Big Brady picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing the five-round distance as a key factor. He notes that Fiziev has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in third rounds of past fights, while RDA has proven cardio and experience in championship rounds. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns to test Fiziev's 95% takedown defense and cardio, potentially taking over in later rounds. He predicts a close decision win for RDA, acknowledging Fiziev could knock him out early.

Cody believes Fiziev has the advantage in striking with better hands and kicks, and his takedown defense is strong. He thinks Fiziev's cardio is sufficient to secure early rounds and then survive if needed. He sees RDA as a gatekeeper and Fiziev as a rising contender, calling it a passing of the torch.

The host discusses the Fiziev vs RDA fight but does not place a bet on it. He acknowledges the value on RDA as an underdog and respects those who pick him, but he personally keeps the fight out of his betting card. He mentions having Fiziev in a parlay but does not elaborate on a clear pick. He notes that Fiziev is younger, faster, and stronger, but RDA is durable and could win by decision. Ultimately, he does not commit to a side.

Paul thinks the price on Fiziev is too wide and expects to get RDA at a better price closer to fight time. He notes RDA's wrestling could be a factor, especially in a five-round fight, and that Fiziev's takedown defense hasn't been fully tested. He calls it a dogger pass situation but leans RDA.

The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, believing RDA's style is tailor-made to lose to Fiziev. He notes Fiziev's body work, takedown defense, and youth advantage. He predicts Fiziev will win the first three rounds decisively, possibly a 4-1 decision, with RDA making a late resurgence but ultimately losing.

Angelo picks Caio Borralho but with low confidence, noting the fight is closer than the 2-1 odds suggest. He highlights Borralho's slick grappling and takedowns, while Petrosyan is a high-volume kickboxer with questionable takedown defense. He acknowledges Petrosyan can win if he makes Borralho pay on grappling entries, as seen in his win over Gregory Rodrigues. He may switch his pick by fight week.

Big Brady confidently picks Caio Borralho, highlighting his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Petrosyan's takedown defense is non-existent and that he gives up his back frequently. Brady believes Borralho will take the fight to the mat, take Petrosyan's back, and finish via ground-and-pound or submission. He predicts a first-round finish, though he acknowledges Petrosyan has power and could win if the fight stays standing.

Cody likes Borralho's well-rounded skills and high fight IQ, but acknowledges Petrosyan's toughness and cardio. He thinks Borralho can bait Petrosyan in and get takedowns, where his grappling is superior. However, he's not highly confident because Petrosyan is a live underdog with a solid skill set.

The host bets 1 unit on Armen Petrosyan at +196. He believes Petrosyan is a solid prospect who can deal with Borralho's game. He thinks the line has moved too far in Borralho's favor due to recency bias, and that Petrosyan's defensive grappling is excellent, allowing him to get back to his feet and work on the feet. He sees a potential knockout for Petrosyan. He notes that Petrosyan's takedown defense is not great but his defensive grappling is amazing.

Paul agrees with Cody that Borralho is the pick, but he's not supremely confident. He notes that Petrosyan has been taken down multiple times in recent fights and that Borralho's path to victory is through takedowns and grappling. He mentions the over 1.5 takedowns prop on PrizePicks.

The Guru picks Caio Borralho (referred to as Carballo/Kaubour), praising his grappling and size advantage. He notes Borralho out-grappled Gadzhi Omargadzhiev easily and believes he can take down Petrosyan. He predicts a decision win, with Borralho using his reach and transitions to control the fight.

Angelo picks Said Nurmagomedov, citing his cleaner and more versatile striking technique and solid defense. He notes Douglas Silva de Andrade has more power but a negative striking differential. He believes Nurmagomedov's pace and striking defense will allow him to outpoint Silva de Andrade, though he must avoid the power. He sees this as a striker vs striker matchup.

Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov, praising his flashy striking, defensive soundness, and youth. He notes that Nurmagomedov is hard to hit and has a well-rounded game with wrestling in his back pocket. He believes Silva de Andrade, despite his power and toughness, will struggle with Nurmagomedov's movement and volume. Brady predicts a decision win for Nurmagomedov, though he acknowledges a finish is possible.

Cody thinks Said's superior speed, footwork, and lateral movement will be key against the shorter, stockier de Andrade. He believes Said can stay at distance and chip away, and has multiple paths to victory including a finish. He acknowledges de Andrade's durability and toughness but sees Said as the safer play.

The host does not make a pick on the winner of this fight. He only bets on the under 2.5 rounds prop, which is his lock of the night play. He expects a finish regardless of who wins, likely from Nurmagomedov within the first two rounds. He does not pick a side on the moneyline.

Paul is torn on this fight. He loves de Andrade as a dog but thinks the price is too wide. He calls it a dogger pass situation, noting that de Andrade has shown heart and durability but Said is very skilled. He doesn't commit to a pick.

The Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov, noting his range and body kicks will trouble the shorter de Andrade. He predicts a submission (guillotine) in the second round, possibly after hurting de Andrade to the body. He mentions de Andrade's age (37) as a factor.

Angelo picks Jared Vanderaa, noting his volume striking and size advantage. He mentions Vanderaa has wrestling in his back pocket and should cruise to a decision if he fights like he did against Andre Arlovski. He acknowledges Chase Sherman's high output but points out Sherman is very hittable, absorbing over 6 significant strikes per minute. He thinks the fight is closer than the odds suggest but favors Vanderaa.

Big Brady leans toward Jared Vanderaa, emphasizing that if Vanderaa takes the fight to the mat, he will win easily due to Sherman's terrible ground game. He notes that Sherman has no striking defense and poor cardio, while Vanderaa has better cardio and defensive responsibility. However, he questions whether Vanderaa will actually attempt takedowns, as he has zero takedown attempts in his last five fights. He predicts a first-round ground-and-pound TKO if Vanderaa wrestles.

Cody thinks Vanderaa will weather Sherman's early storm and then take over with volume and pressure. He notes Sherman tends to fade in the second and third rounds. He's not confident because both are low-level heavyweights, but he leans Vanderaa due to output and durability.

The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He only mentions it in passing when asked about fights likely to go to decision, listing Sherman vs Vanderaa as one possibility. No pick or bet is made.

Paul thinks this is a dogger pass situation but picks Sherman for the show. He notes that Vanderaa has poor fight IQ and that Sherman could win if he keeps it standing. He's not confident but sees value at plus money.

The Guru calls Jared Vanderaa a lock, citing his size advantage and better grappling compared to Sherman. He notes Vanderaa's decent performance against Arlovski and Romanov, while Sherman is small and lacks grappling. He predicts a TKO or submission in the second round.

Angelo is very confident in Ricky Turcios due to his high volume and pace, contrasting with Zahabi's low output. He notes Turcios landed 200 strikes despite being taken down 6 times in his last fight. He sees Turcios as a parlay piece and already has a moneyline bet at -175. He compares the matchup to Brian Barbarena vs Robbie Lawler, where volume overcame power.

Big Brady picks Ricky Turcios due to his relentless activity and minute-winning ability. He notes that Turcios has many holes in his game (poor takedown defense, hittable, reckless) but believes Zahabi's low volume (2.82 significant strikes per minute) won't capitalize on them. He thinks if the fight goes to decision, Turcios will do enough to win. He acknowledges Zahabi could win by knockout if he lands clean, but leans toward Turcios by decision.

Cody believes Turcios' relentless pace and cardio will overwhelm Zahabi, who fights infrequently and has low volume. He thinks Zahabi's only path is a knockout, but Turcios is durable and will outwork him over three rounds. He cites Zahabi's poor performances and lack of activity.

The host says he is picking Zahabi to win but does not place a bet on the fight. He mentions that Zahabi could knock out Turcios but is not super confident. He does not elaborate on reasoning beyond that.

Paul is interested in the over 2.5 rounds prop and leans Turcios due to Zahabi's inconsistency. He notes Zahabi has skills but rarely puts them together, while Turcios has a high work rate. He's not fully confident but sees Turcios as the likely winner.

The Guru picks Ricky Turcios, noting Zahabi's inconsistency and that his KO win was over a padded-record opponent. He believes Turcios' chin and pace will carry him to a 29-28 decision, especially as Zahabi is older and Turcios has a reach advantage.

Angelo picks Michael Johnson as a +200 underdog, questioning why Mullarkey is a 2-1 favorite. He highlights Johnson's 78% takedown defense over 25 UFC fights, noting only Khabib and Clay Guida have taken him down multiple times. He believes Johnson's striking is underrated and he is not chinny, having been knocked out only once. He sees Mullarkey as a grappler who has been striking lately, and Johnson's experience gives him the edge.

Big Brady picks Jamie Mullarkey, citing his youth and multiple paths to victory. He notes that Mullarkey can mix in takedowns and make it a dirty fight, which could expose Michael Johnson's questionable ground game and tendency to make mistakes. He acknowledges Johnson is the better striker and could knock Mullarkey out, but believes Mullarkey's durability and pressure will earn him a decision win. He expresses surprise at Mullarkey being a -240 favorite.

Cody thinks Mullarkey's pressure and wrestling will be key against Johnson, who fades in later rounds. He notes Johnson's best round is the first, and if Mullarkey can survive that, he can take over. He believes Mullarkey's durability is still there despite the recent KO loss.

The host bets 1 unit on Michael Johnson at +225 as a value play. He thinks Johnson is the better striker, faster, and could knock out Mullarkey quickly. However, he also acknowledges that Mullarkey could have success and possibly finish Johnson later, so he also bets on the under 2.5 rounds to cover both sides. He sees the optimal outcome as Johnson by KO under 2.5 rounds.

Paul calls this a dogger pass situation. He's tempted by Johnson at plus money but notes Johnson's inconsistency. He thinks the price on Mullarkey is steep and isn't confident either way.

The Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey, praising his technical striking, solid chin, and grappling ability. He believes Mullarkey will wear Johnson down with body work and cage pressure, finishing him in the third round via cumulative damage. He notes Johnson's tendency to gas.

Angelo picks Tresean Gore but with low confidence due to unknowns. He notes Gore has power and solid takedown defense, while Cody Brundage can be chinny. He believes if the pre-UFC Gore shows up with high pace, he wins; but if the gun-shy version appears, he loses. He is not betting this fight because of the uncertainty.

Big Brady confidently picks Tresean Gore, citing his superior striking power and takedown defense. He notes that Cody Brundage has been hurt when shooting takedowns in past fights and that Gore hits very hard. Brady believes Brundage will struggle to get the fight to the mat, and on the feet, Gore will land big shots and potentially knock him out. He predicts a second-round knockout for Gore, though he acknowledges Gore's low volume as a potential weakness.

Cody leans Gore due to his athleticism and power, but acknowledges he's inexperienced and looked poor against Brian Battle. He thinks Brundage's chin is suspect and Gore could catch him. However, he's not confident because Gore is still raw.

The host bets 2.5 units on Tresean Gore at -132. He believes Gore is a quicker, faster, and more powerful striker with good takedown defense. He thinks Gore will be hard to hold down and can work back to his feet. He expects Gore to knock out Brundage within two rounds if he pulls the trigger. He notes that if Gore stays gun-shy, things could get iffy.

Paul is on Gore at -110, his only bet on the card so far. He thinks Gore will bounce back from his loss to Battle and that Brundage is coming in on short notice and has looked poor. He caps the line at -150 and wouldn't bet it above that.

The Guru picks Tresean Gore over Cody Brundage, believing Gore is more technical and strong. He thinks Brundage may gas out chasing takedowns, leaving himself open for a KO. He notes Gore's loss to Bryan Battle is excusable as Battle is underrated. He predicts a KO in the second round.

Angelo picks Antonina Shevchenko as the better striker, expecting the fight to stay on the feet since Cortney Casey has poor takedown offense (no takedowns in 4 years). He notes Antonina has clean technique but real gaps in grappling. He is not betting the moneyline but considers a plus 3.5 round bet on Casey because she is tough and could win one round.

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko but with low confidence, noting that he typically looks to fade her. He explains that Cortney Casey's path to victory would be via takedowns, but she rarely uses her wrestling (only 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes). Since he can't trust Casey to implement that game plan, he expects the fight to stay on the feet where Shevchenko is the better striker. He calls it a close fight and says he doesn't want to bet it.

Cody thinks Shevchenko's striking is world-class and she has a slight wrestling advantage over Casey. He notes Casey is durable but has poor takedown defense. He expects Shevchenko to use her speed and technique to win a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

The host does not pick a winner for this fight. He only bets on the fight going to decision (over 2.5 rounds) at -180. He expects Shevchenko to outpoint Casey but notes that Casey could snatch a submission. He does not commit to a side on the moneyline.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Shevchenko. He notes that Casey's wrestling is non-existent and Shevchenko should have a grappling advantage. He thinks the price is reasonable for a women's MMA fight and expects Shevchenko to win.

The Guru picks Cortney Casey as an underdog, calling the fight a coin flip between two inconsistent fighters. He believes oddsmakers overvalue Shevchenko's surname and record. He trusts Casey's volume and grappling to edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

Cody is very high on Onama, citing his dynamic striking, footwork, and finishing ability. He notes Onama already beat Armfield as an amateur and that Armfield is not UFC quality yet. He thinks Onama will win easily, possibly by finish.

The host takes a small 0.5 unit shot on Garrett Armfield at +572. He sees Armfield as a solid wrestler who could cause problems for Onama if he employs his grappling. He notes that Onama is great on the feet but if he can't get his power going due to being stuck under Armfield, the upset is possible. He also suggests that if betting Onama, the KO prop is better than the moneyline.

Paul thinks Onama is a great prospect and that the price, though high, is justified. He notes Armfield is taking the fight on short notice and is limited. He expects Onama to win, possibly by decision since Armfield has never been knocked out.

Angelo picks Karl Roberson despite Kennedy Nzechukwu's power and reach. He notes Roberson is the better all-around fighter with solid game planning and takedowns against strikers. He worries about Roberson's knockout loss to Khalil Rountree but believes Roberson's clean technique and solid game planning will get it done. He acknowledges Kennedy will be dangerous the entire 15 minutes.

Big Brady picks Kennedy Nzechukwu primarily due to his significant size advantage (4-inch height, 9-inch reach) and superior cardio. He notes that Kennedy is still green and inconsistent, but Karl Roberson's low output, inconsistency, and three-fight skid make him hard to trust. Brady acknowledges that Roberson is more skilled but believes Kennedy's physical attributes and cardio will allow him to do more over three rounds. He expresses low confidence, calling it a borderline '100 gambler fight' and says he won't bet it.

Cody picks Nzechukwu but with low confidence. He notes Nzechukwu has a huge reach advantage but doesn't use it well, and his fights are often sloppy. He thinks Roberson has better kickboxing but terrible ring IQ. He sees this as a low-level fight where either could win.

The host discusses this fight but does not place a bet. He acknowledges that Roberson is technically the better striker and could win if he grapples, but he does not trust Roberson's fight IQ. He mentions that Roberson could win by decision or submission but ultimately does not pull the trigger.

Paul picks Roberson as a dog, noting his striking is more refined and he has better kickboxing. He thinks Roberson's durability could hold up and he might mix in takedowns. However, he's not confident due to Roberson's poor decision-making.

The Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu due to his massive size and reach advantage (9-inch reach). He believes Nzechukwu should have won his last fight and that Roberson lacks power at range. He worries about Nzechukwu's chin but notes Roberson doesn't take punches well either. He predicts a 29-28 decision win at range.

Angelo picks Ronnie Lawrence based on his relentless wrestling pressure and high takedown volume. He notes Lawrence averages over 9 takedowns per 15 minutes with 78% accuracy, and has shown he can survive dangerous striking exchanges. He acknowledges Kakhramonov has cleaner striking but slows down and gets taken down, as seen in his PFL loss. Angelo already has a moneyline bet on Lawrence but cautions that betting the first fight of the night is tricky.

Big Brady slightly leans toward Ronnie Lawrence, highlighting his exceptional takedown rate (9 per 15 minutes) and cardio. He notes that Lawrence is well-rounded and showed power in his last fight. He acknowledges Kakhramonov's power and potential, but believes Lawrence's pace and wrestling will be key, especially as Kakhramonov has slowed down in past fights. He predicts a decision win for Lawrence.

Cody is high on Lawrence, citing his improved wrestling, cardio, and tenacity. He thinks Lawrence's volume and grappling will overwhelm Kakhramonov, who has low output and was controlled in the clinch by Trevin Jones. He believes Lawrence is the more proven fighter.

The host makes this his dog of the night play with 2 units at +115. He believes Kakhramonov has good enough defensive grappling to deal with Lawrence's relentless takedowns and can dish out more damage on the feet. He thinks Kakhramonov could win by finish or decision, especially with the emphasis on damage. He notes that Lawrence is not a big damage inflictor when grappling.

Paul is leaning towards Kakhramonov as a dog, noting his talent and performance against Umar Nurmagomedov. He's worried about Lawrence's durability after nearly being finished by Mana Martinez. He thinks the line moving towards Lawrence might offer value on Kakhramonov.

The Guru picks Saidyokub Kakhramonov over Ronnie Lawrence, citing better competition faced and a strong performance against Umar Nurmagomedov. He notes Lawrence's tough fight against Mana Martinez and believes Kakhramonov's takedown defense and chin will be key. He predicts a TKO in the second round, mentioning Kakhramonov is an underdog worth taking.