Ernesta Kareckaitė
Career Averages
Win Methods (1)
Loss Methods (2)
Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regina Tarin | 0 | 114 of 239 | 47% | 125 of 250 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 105 of 249 | 42% | 127 of 279 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Regina Tarin | 0 | 37 of 79 | 46% | 39 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 33 of 82 | 40% | 39 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 2 | Regina Tarin | 0 | 31 of 68 | 45% | 35 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 32 of 70 | 45% | 36 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 3 | Regina Tarin | 0 | 46 of 92 | 50% | 51 of 97 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 40 of 97 | 41% | 52 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regina Tarin | 114 of 239 | 47% | 76 of 185 | 34 of 48 | 4 of 6 | 91 of 209 | 23 of 30 | 0 of 0 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 105 of 249 | 42% | 79 of 212 | 20 of 30 | 6 of 7 | 88 of 225 | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Regina Tarin | 37 of 79 | 46% | 26 of 63 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 35 of 75 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 33 of 82 | 40% | 26 of 70 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 29 of 78 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Regina Tarin | 31 of 68 | 45% | 20 of 52 | 10 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 63 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 32 of 70 | 45% | 22 of 58 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 67 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Regina Tarin | 46 of 92 | 50% | 30 of 70 | 15 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 71 | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 40 of 97 | 41% | 31 of 84 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 80 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (11)
Angelo picks Ernesta Kareckaitė (referred to as 'Carrot Cake') because she is a solid striker with good footwork, fast hands, and head movement. He notes that she uses her length well and can fight on the ground if needed. He believes her technical striking and volume will outpoint the power of Sophia Montenegro (Regina Tarin), who is hittable and lacks defensive acumen.
Big Brady picks Ernesta Kareckaitė, citing her high volume striking (almost 8 significant strikes per minute) and solid takedown defense (82%). He notes that opponent Sophia Montenegro is very hitable and has poor defense, while Kareckaitė lacks power but should win by decision. He jokes about her nickname 'Heavy-handed' being inaccurate.
Cody also leans Kareckaitė, citing her striking output and Tarin's short notice. He notes Tarin is a local Muay Thai fighter but lacks MMA experience. He is not heavily invested.
Connor picks Kareckaitė, agreeing with Zane that she is the better fighter. He notes that Tarin is on short notice and less athletic, making Kareckaitė the clear choice.
Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.
The host is tempted to bet on Kareckaitė but is concerned about home advantage for Tarin in Mexico City. He notes that Kareckaitė is 20-30% better technically, but Tarin is aggressive and could make rounds close, potentially swaying judges. He hasn't made up his mind and will decide later.
James views Kareckaitė as the better striker with superior cardio and volume, though she often goes to split decisions. He expects her to pull away after round one, possibly winning by TKO in round three or decision.
The host leans with Kareckaitė, citing her reach advantage and distance striking. He acknowledges Montenegro's power and takedown threat but believes Kareckaitė's defensive grappling has improved. He expects a close decision and likes the decision prop at around +100. He warns that Montenegro could grind out a win if she gets takedowns.
Paul leans towards Kareckaitė due to her experience, striking volume, and preparation for the card. He notes Tarin is a late replacement and less experienced, but the line is tight and he may not bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Ernesta Kareckaitė over Regina Tarin, citing Tarin's lack of quality wins and her hype based on looks rather than skill. He notes that Kareckaitė has a win over Kali Robbins and showed high-level skills in a Contender Series fight, while Tarin is taking the fight on short notice and is only 21 years old. He acknowledges Tarin could pull off a submission but favors the more experienced fighter.
Zane picks Kareckaitė because she is a more reliable volume striker with a better range game and clinch work. Tarin is similar to Montenegro but with less coordination and athleticism, and is on short notice. Kareckaitė should win by outworking Tarin.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 95 of 226 | 42% | 126 of 266 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 67 of 166 | 40% | 86 of 194 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 27 of 63 | 42% | 35 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 25 of 45 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 | |
| 2 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 36 of 86 | 41% | 45 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 24 of 66 | 36% | 28 of 72 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 32 of 77 | 41% | 46 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 22 of 59 | 37% | 33 of 77 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 95 of 226 | 42% | 77 of 199 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 87 of 213 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 67 of 166 | 40% | 36 of 120 | 22 of 35 | 9 of 11 | 63 of 156 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 27 of 63 | 42% | 19 of 54 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 57 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 21 of 41 | 51% | 13 of 30 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 18 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 36 of 86 | 41% | 31 of 76 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 34 of 80 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 24 of 66 | 36% | 14 of 52 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 24 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 32 of 77 | 41% | 27 of 69 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 22 of 59 | 37% | 9 of 38 | 11 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Two women with significantly different styles will clash as the prelims roll on at the 125-pound range. Despite losing her first UFC outing, Kareckaite (5-1-1, 0-1 UFC) comes in as a fairly heavy betting favorite against Brazilian finisher Caliari (8-2, 0-0 UFC) in the latter’s first stint in the Octagon. The Lithuanian will have 15 minutes or less to prove that a bet on her is worthwhile, and Caliari knows just one mistake is all she needs to get the job done. Referee Kerry Hatley draws the charge for this matchup, one that opens up as the ladies clap hands. Kareckaite immediately try to take advantage of her significant reach advantage, pawing out jabs and getting met with an early leg kick. Kareckaite comes up just short with a one-two, and Caliari pushes her away and gets off a low kick. Kareckaite strikes her way into a clinch, and Caliari pulls away and gets caught with a few punches from the Lithuanian. Caliari fires back, and she connects with a few punches and chains them into a takedown attempt. Kareckaite stands upright and turns her around, but Caliari is singularly focused on the grappling. Caliari sneaks in a few uppercuts before deciding to separate, and she ducks a right hand to tag the longer woman with quick strikes. Kareckaite reaches her with a long right hand, and she strings several more together in rapid succession as Caliari’s eyes go wide. The Brazilian looks to slow things down with a takedown attempt, and Kareckaite bucks her way out of it and pops Caliari with a right hand. Caliari is ready to bang when the attempt fails, as she uses her fast hands to set up tackling takedown efforts. Caliari drags Kareckaite’s leg far away to force her to do a split, and she briefly grounds the Lithuanian as a result. Kareckaite pops right back up, and Caliari is tightly wrapped around her as they clinch. The two trade knees and hand-fight until they break apart. Caliari lands first, Kareckaite counters, and the former gives her something back to think about. Kareckaite rifles off long, straight punches, and a head kick is blocked but the front kick that follows is not. Kareckaite drills Caliari with a slew of punches until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Round 2
The ladies tap their hands together before getting going, and Kareckaite picks up where she leads off with long strikes. She does not keep a solid defense, as Caliari meets her with blistering elbows and short but effective shots in response. Caliari ducks a right hand to snap Kareckaite’s head back with a right hand, and this forces Kareckaite to clinch with her to blink out the surprisingly heavy blow. Caliari backs her foe off with her hands, and she gets smacked with a left hand and shoots in for her own takedown. Kareckaite stifles it, circles around in hopes of taking the back and settles for Caliari to roll to her back. The Brazilian clings to Kareckaite, attempting to control Kareckaite’s arms and get hold of a submission. Kareckaite escapes before a leglock materializes, and when she stands right in front of Caliari, the two trade leather. Kareckaite goes to the body to break things up, and Caliari follows suit and rips two left hands to the liver. Kareckaite takes the punches and hurls a few back, but Caliari’s appear more effective when they exchange. The Brazilian goes over the top with a kick, and her left hand continues to score on Kareckaite’s midsection. Kareckaite counters a leg kick with a right hand, and both women suffer damage to their noses as they connect one after the other. Caliari fails on a trip takedown, and she sells out for an uppercut and gets countered hard. Kareckaite strings four punches together before Caliari can pay her back, but Caliari is more than willing to trade violently. They take turns punching one another in the face, defense at a premium, and two hooks from Caliari get Kareckaite’s attention before the round ends with a failed takedown.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite
Round 3
After a speedy glove touch, the flyweights resume throwing hands. Caliari walks through the long, rangy punches to scoop up uppercuts. Caliari mixes up a handful of headshots with a couple to the body, and they go tit-for-tat as they appear to be enjoying the striking affair. Kareckaite puts her fist on the chin again and again, and she lets Caliari clinch with her so she can pound her with a knee. Caliari hammers her opponent with a left to the body, and Kareckaite is right there in front of her clubbing her with a right hand. Kareckaite stops a takedown attempt, partially thanks to a few fence grabs, and Caliari hooks a leg around hers to try to wrench her down. Caliari again strips the leg away like before, but Kareckaite gathers herself before having to deal with a split. The Lithuanian, breaking away from the clinch, does not stay away from Caliari for long. Caliari puts a few one-twos on the jaw and dives after a takedown, but the latter does not get there. Caliari keeps working the body, and a number of right hands have drawn some swelling on Kareckaite’s left eyebrow. Caliari fakes a takedown to deliver a knee to the body, and she times Kareckaite lifting her left up to tackle her to the canvas. Caliari is active when on top, but most of her strikes are blocked or deflected. Kareckaite slugs it out from her back, and the two beat on one another right until the match’s conclusion.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Caliari (29-28 Caliari)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Caliari (29-28 Caliari)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Caliari (29-28 Caliari)
The Official Result
Ernesta Kareckaite def. Nicolle Caliari via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Ernesta Kareckaitė, citing her superior striking, footwork, and length. He notes that Nicolle Caliari's takedowns are mediocre, and while Ernesta's takedown defense is also mediocre, he expects the striking battle to favor Ernesta. He suggests that a plus 3.5 spread bet on Nicolle could be valuable if the odds are plus money, as he sees the fight going to a close decision. He does not expect a finish.
Big Brady disagrees with the odds, thinking this is a close fight. He acknowledges Kareckaitė's size, reach, cardio, and volume, but believes Caliari has the grappling advantage and can land bigger shots. He notes Caliari has improved her grappling since her contender series win and has power. He predicts Caliari wins by decision, using wrestling and grappling to win minutes.
Cody picks Kareckaitė but with low confidence, noting her high volume striking but poor takedown defense. He sees Caliari's submission threat but believes Kareckaitė's cardio and experience give her the edge. He advises passing on this fight.
Daniel notes Kareckaitė's length and volume will be a problem for the shorter Caliari, but Caliari could get takedowns and grind. He thinks Kareckaitė will pick her apart at range, but the -260 odds offer no value. He picks the favorite but calls it a dog-or-pass situation.
Kareckaitė's 6-inch height and 9-inch reach advantage will allow her to keep Caliari at the end of her punches, land more volume, and win on the scorecards. Both earned UFC contracts via the Contender Series last season.
Paul also picks Kareckaitė but is not confident. He notes her volume and physicality but acknowledges Caliari's submission game. He says he doesn't care for this fight and would rather pass.
The Guru picks Caliari, citing her Brazilian background, consistent finishes, and good submission skills. He notes Kareckaitė is a rangy kickboxer but thinks Caliari will get takedowns and a submission. He acknowledges Kareckaitė's youth (26) and win over Kari Judice but sides with Caliari's grappling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dione Barbosa | 0 | 39 of 71 | 54% | 87 of 124 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 1 | 1 | 3:51 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 53 of 156 | 33% | 100 of 220 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 3 | 3:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dione Barbosa | 0 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 34 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:47 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 5 of 23 | 21% | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Dione Barbosa | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 26 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 0:57 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 14 of 44 | 31% | 49 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 2:02 | |
| 3 | Dione Barbosa | 0 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 34 of 89 | 38% | 44 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dione Barbosa | 39 of 71 | 54% | 21 of 49 | 14 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 33 of 65 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 53 of 156 | 33% | 39 of 127 | 8 of 15 | 6 of 14 | 44 of 132 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 23 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dione Barbosa | 11 of 17 | 64% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 5 of 23 | 21% | 4 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Dione Barbosa | 8 of 17 | 47% | 5 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 14 of 44 | 31% | 8 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 12 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 19 | |
| 3 | Dione Barbosa | 20 of 37 | 54% | 10 of 27 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 34 of 89 | 38% | 27 of 76 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 32 of 85 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barbosa (-205), Kareckaite (+170)
Round 1
In the next matchup on the early prelims, a classic battle of Brazil vs. Lithuania plays out in the women’s flyweight category. Two women signed on the 2023 season of Dana White’s Contender Series will test their mettle against one another, as “The Witch” Barbosa (6-2, 0-0 UFC) looks to bewitch the heavy-handed Kareckaite (5-0-1, 0-0 UFC). Striker faces grappler, while referee Fernando Portella watches on. The ladies share a cordial tap of the gloves before getting after it. They both try to find their range with jabs early, and Barbosa strikes first with a sweeping low kick. Kareckaite reaches out with a right hand, and she comes up short and hops away from another leg kick. The two whiff on their strikes until Barbosa connects with a loud body kick, and she slides out of the way of the long punches of the Lithuanian. Barbosa jabs the body and sticks Kareckaite with a straight right hand, and Kareckaite is surprised and needs a moment to blink it out. Kareckaite gets off a right hand around the guard, and they both land sing leg kicks. Barbosa tosses out a one-two and shoots in for takedown, and she rushes Kareckaite to the fence and looks for a trip and throw. The Brazilian easily slings her to the mat despite Kareckaite grabbing the cage, and she slips around to take Kareckaite’s back in a hurry. Before Kareckaite knows what is going on, Barbosa sneaks an arm under the chin, and Kareckaite has to fight it off while a body triangle cinches around her waist. Kareckaite sits up to break up the body lock, and Barbosa floats along and lands a number of short right hands before hunting for another choke. When Kareckaite defends, she leans over and tries to slide Barbosa out the back door. Barbosa hunts for a rear-naked choke and softens Kareckaite up with punches, and she keeps hooks in to thwart the turning Kareckaite from bucking her off. The Brazilian keeps smacking Kareckaite with short but effective right hands, and she turns over willingly to snatch up an armbar. Kareckaite keeps her stacked up and rides out the round in the position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Round 2
The ladies quickly bump fists before getting back to it, and Kareckaite lunges forward almost immediately with long punches. Barbosa strings together a short combination to wobble the long legs of her opponent, and she spins with a back elbow that hurts Kareckaite and drops her down to both hands. Kareckaite pushes off the mat, and Barbosa pushes forward to take her down. Kareckaite grabs the fence to stay upright, and Portella warns her for the foul. Kareckaite manages to break out of the position, and Barbosa rushes forward to strike the body and fake a spinning strike. Barbosa does a delayed step forward and surprises Kareckaite with a takedown effort, successfully grounding the Lithuanian. Kareckaite turns the corner and reverses the position, and she stands back up and starts smacking Barbosa’s legs with kicks. This exchange continues for quite some time, as Portella stands there instead of forcing Barbosa to stand up. Kareckaite keeps kicking until Portella finally gets between them. Barbosa stands up, and Kareckaite catches her with a clean one-two. Kareckaite looks for a right hand over the top, and she gets popped with another spinning back elbow. Kareckaite uses the momentum of her opponent to bowl her over to the ground, and Barbosa hits her back and snags hold of a heel hook. Kareckaite lowers herself down and turns the right way to get away from the leglock, but Barbosa speedily takes her back. Kareckaite attempts to turn through it, and Barbosa lines up an armbar setup. Kareckaite maintains heavy top pressure to disallow Barbosa from locking the armbar down, and she shucks the arms and legs out of the way to move into the guard. The horn sounds with them in this place.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Round 3
The women go strike-for-strike when the round begins, with one landing and the other responding. As Kareckaite gets off a solid right hand, Barbosa shoots for a telegraphed takedown. Kareckaite is able to sprawl effectively to shut it down, and she stands up and allows Barbosa to do so and flicks a head kick at her. Barbosa gets her guard up in time, but she gets backed up by the striking of her opponent. Kareckaite stings the Brazilian with a one-two, and Barbosa shoots in again. The takedown shot fails, and Kareckaite backs away and lands a few more times. A failed level change from Barbosa makes her just stumble, but she regains her footing and spins with a back kick that lands square on the ribcage. Kareckaite ignores it and slings a head kick at her and a series of long, rangy punches. Kareckaite shuts down another takedown, lets Barbosa up and rings her up with a hard one-two. Four quick punches land flush from the Lithuanian, and Barbosa is showing serious signs of fatigue. Kareckaite marches her down, tagging her with crisp punches and stopping Barbosa in her tracks from attempting takedowns. Kareckaite pushes Barbosa away after another takedown try, and she puts fists to face as Barbosa swings back. Barbosa comes up short on another takedown, but a second effort puts them down on the mat. Kareckaite turns through and winds up on top, where Barbosa hunts for a leglock almost immediately. Kareckaite holds onto the fence while turning herself through it, and she stands up and steps around to lower down two heavy punches on the jaw. Barbosa goes for another submission, but Kareckaite backs off and motions for her to stand up. Kareckaite walks face-first into a right hand, and she wings a right hand back that grazes the cheek. Kareckaite loads up on a right hand and forces Barbosa to dip down into a head kick. The Brazilian shoots desperately for a takedown at the 10-second slapper, and Kareckaite stifles her until the final horn blares. This could be a close one.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite (29-28 Kareckaite)
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite (29-28 Barbosa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite (29-28 Barbosa)
The Official Result
Dione Barbosa def. Ernesta Kareckaite via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Barbosa as the grappler, noting she can control where the fight goes. He acknowledges her struggles closing distance and that Kareckaitė is the better striker, but believes Barbosa's grappling will prevail. He strongly advises against betting on this fight due to its low level.
Big Brady sees this as a striker vs grappler matchup. He likes Kareckaitė's high volume striking and cardio, and thinks her takedown defense is good enough to survive and win a volume-based decision. He notes Barbosa's BJJ but is not confident in her ability to get takedowns.
Cody picks Barbosa but is not super confident. He notes Barbosa's grappling advantage and Kareckaitė's lack of ground game. He expects Barbosa to mix takedowns and win a decision, but acknowledges it could be close.
Daniel Vreeland picks Barbosa, citing her judo background and superior grappling. He notes that Kareckaitė has good conditioning and volume on the feet, but Barbosa is nearly as good a striker and has a massive ground advantage. He expects Barbosa to get takedowns and control the fight, potentially by submission or decision.
This is a grappler versus striker matchup. Barbosa, a judo and BJJ black belt, should be able to get the fight to the ground and put Kareckaitė in bad positions, potentially leading to a submission. However, the ultimate prediction is Barbosa by decision.
Paul picks Barbosa, citing her grappling and takedown ability. He notes Kareckaitė has a reach advantage but poor ground game. Paul expects Barbosa to neutralize the striking and win on the ground.
The MMA Guru initially leans toward Ernesta Kareckaitė due to her kickboxing background and undefeated record, but after reviewing footage of Dione Barbosa taking down Josiane Nunes, he switches to Barbosa. He notes Barbosa's strength and win over Karine Silva as key factors, though he remains hesitant due to limited information.
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