UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh

Angelo hesitantly picks Brandon Moreno, acknowledging that Lone'er Kavanagh is fast and accurate and could give Moreno trouble early. He notes Moreno's five-round experience and toughness as key advantages, expecting him to outlast Kavanagh who may fade. He admits if it were a three-round fight with a full camp, he would pick Kavanagh.

Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno, citing his hometown advantage, experience as a former champion, and step down in competition. He notes Kavanagh looked good in the first round against Charles Johnson but faded and got knocked out. Brady believes Moreno's cardio, pressure, and minute-winning ability will lead to a decision win, possibly a late finish if Kavanagh slows down.

Cody points out Moreno's recent stylistic changes, lack of wrestling, and potential decline. He highlights Kavanagh's speed and power, and the danger of an early knockout. Despite these concerns, he picks Moreno due to the difficulty of betting against him, but strongly advises live betting or hedging.

Connor agrees with Zane that Moreno should win, but he is slightly less confident due to Moreno's recent inconsistent performances. He notes that Moreno sometimes makes weird mistakes and that Kavanagh is a dangerous counterpuncher with speed and accuracy. However, Connor ultimately believes Moreno's experience and ability to pressure will be too much for Kavanagh, especially given Kavanagh's stamina concerns.

Daniel picks Brandon Moreno to win, citing his well-rounded skills and fight IQ. He notes Moreno's takedown advantage against Royval's poor takedown defense, but acknowledges Royval's danger on the feet with unorthodox strikes. He expects Moreno to exploit takedown defense and control the fight on the ground, though he warns that Moreno has been dropped in recent fights.

The host is betting on Moreno despite his decline, because the circumstances heavily favor him. Moreno has experience fighting in Mexico City, excellent cardio, and has never been knocked out. Kavanagh is inexperienced (10 pro fights), a volume striker with no knockout power, and is fighting on short notice at high altitude. The host believes Kavanagh would need to finish Moreno or win a clear decision, both unlikely. He plans to parlay Moreno with Zellhuber.

James believes Kavanagh is one of the best flyweights despite his loss to Charles Johnson, citing his speed, footwork, and counter-striking. He questions Moreno's consistency and recent performance, noting Moreno's age and potential decline. James sees value in Kavanagh at +210 odds, predicting Moreno may not push the pace needed to exploit Kavanagh's cardio concerns.

The host picks Brandon Moreno inside the distance, expecting a round 4 or 5 finish. He notes Moreno's experience, cardio, and durability, and believes Kavanagh will fade in the later rounds due to altitude and short notice. He is surprised the line moved to -225 and considers it a great value. He predicts a late TKO or submission.

Paul acknowledges Moreno's experience and cardio advantage, especially at altitude. He notes Moreno's wrestling and submission game are superior, and expects Moreno to take over in later rounds. He is puzzled by the money coming in on Kavanagh and recommends Moreno as a parlay piece, but suggests live betting for better value.

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Moreno, noting that Lone'er Kavanagh has a cardio issue and gasses after about 7 minutes. He argues that Moreno is hard to finish early and that Kavanagh's only path to victory is a first-round TKO, which is unlikely at Mexico City altitude. He predicts a late-rounds TKO for Moreno, possibly in rounds 4 or 5.

Zane picks Moreno because Kavanagh is not ready for this level of competition, especially on short notice and at altitude. He notes that Kavanagh's gas tank was a problem against Charles Johnson, and Moreno's experience and ability to set a comfortable tempo will likely overwhelm him. Zane also mentions that Moreno has a reach advantage and is fighting at home, which should help him make better decisions.

Angelo picks David Martínez, criticizing Marlon Vera as a fighter who often does nothing and then complains about decisions. He highlights Martínez's movement, volume, and defensive stats, and believes he will outwork Vera. He warns against betting on Vera as a dog, calling it a trap.

Big Brady picks David Martínez, citing Marlon Vera's apparent lack of effort in recent fights. He notes Vera has shown no urgency against top competition and lost to Ian Zahabi. Martínez is young, hungry, and fast, and Brady believes he will win by decision, continuing Vera's frustrating streak.

Cody is concerned about Martinez taking a round off against Font and the high price. He sees split decision potential and notes Vera's durability and experience. However, he leans Martinez due to Vera's recent poor form and age, but suggests live betting Vera if he loses the first round.

Connor also picks Martinez but is more cautious, noting that Vera is a dangerous puncher who can hurt anyone. He points out that Martinez has not faced someone with Vera's power and could get knocked out. However, Connor believes Vera's tendency to let fights slip away and his declining athleticism will allow Martinez to win rounds with volume and pressure.

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

The host considers this a dog-or-pass fight. Martínez is a heavy favorite at -294, but the host cannot bet him at that price. He notes that Vera has been passive and lost his last five decisions, and Martínez has home advantage. However, Vera is dangerous if he shows up, but the host hates betting on passive fighters. He passes.

James favors Martínez due to his superior footwork, kicking game, and volume, which should trouble Vera's forward pressure. He notes Vera's durability and power but believes Martínez can outpoint him over three rounds. James predicts a decision win for Martínez and suggests betting on Martínez by decision as a prop.

The host picks David Martínez by decision, citing his slick striking, speed, and cardio. He believes Martínez will stick and move effectively, while Vera is reckless and a slow starter. He notes Vera's durability but expects Martínez to outland him and win a clear decision, similar to the Sean O'Malley fight but less dominant.

Paul likes Martinez's speed and kickboxing, and believes he passed the Rob Font test. He notes Vera's slow starts and recent decline, but is not excited about the -310 price. He expects a close decision but picks Martinez to get the job done.

The MMA Guru picks David Martínez, stating that Marlon Vera has looked inactive and frustrated since his loss to Sean O'Malley. He praises Martínez's chin, explosiveness, low kicks, and movement, noting that he beat Rob Font. He believes Vera is done as a fighter and that Martínez will outwork him.

Zane picks Martinez because Vera is on a three-fight losing streak and his style is falling apart. He notes that Vera's process was always dysfunctional, relying on late surges, and now he lacks the speed and durability to make it work. Martinez showed toughness against Rob Font and has the volume and pressure to outwork Vera, though Zane acknowledges Vera's power is a threat.

Angelo hesitantly picks Daniel Zellhuber despite his recent poor performance against Michael Johnson. He reasons that Zellhuber cannot possibly 'do nothing' two fights in a row, especially in Mexico. He also notes that King Green (Bobby Green) sometimes is not serious enough and may not score well with Mexican judges. He acknowledges the risk but believes Zellhuber's Mexican spirit and Green's showboating could lead to a Zellhuber win.

Big Brady picks Daniel Zellhuber but with strong hesitation, calling him the biggest 'ball dropper' in the UFC after losing as a heavy favorite twice. He notes Zellhuber should win against King Green, who struggled against Lance Gibson Jr., but is wary of another poor performance. He predicts a second-round knockout if Zellhuber shows up.

Cody strongly fades Zellhuber at -500, pointing out his recent losses and lack of finishing ability. He believes Green's pressure and durability will cause problems, and that Zellhuber's jab won't be enough. He recommends betting Green or passing.

Connor agrees with Zane, but notes that Zellhuber could still lose if he has a slow start and lets Green get comfortable. He points out that Green is crafty and can throw off any fighter with his unorthodox style. However, Connor believes Green's inability to handle fast range strikers and his age make Zellhuber the clear pick.

Daniel picks Daniel Zellhuber, praising his size, reach, sharp hands, and takedown defense. He notes Zellhuber's chin and recovery, and believes he will outrange Prado and avoid ground-and-pound. He sees Zellhuber as a future top-15 fighter, while Prado is still unproven at this level.

The host is very confident in Zellhuber, calling him the safest bet on the card. He cites Zellhuber's youth (26 vs 39), massive reach advantage (6 inches), home advantage in Mexico City, and Green's lack of finishing ability. Green is a volume striker who is old and smaller, and will likely be outworked. The host plans to parlay Zellhuber with Moreno.

James expects Zellhuber to rebound from his loss to Michael Johnson, citing Green's less dangerous boxing style. He believes Zellhuber's kicks, durability, and aggression will overwhelm Green, leading to a finish. James predicts Zellhuber wins inside the distance.

The host picks Daniel Zellhuber but is hesitant due to the -500 price and Zellhuber's recent losses. He notes Zellhuber's height and reach advantages and believes he can land the better strikes. However, he warns that Green is an educated striker and that Zellhuber's striking defense is suspect. He prefers the KO prop over the moneyline.

Paul is leaning towards Green at +375, citing Zellhuber's inconsistency and lack of power. He notes Green's forward pressure and durability, and believes the price is too high on Zellhuber. He hasn't bet yet but is close to clicking Green.

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing Bobby Green's struggles against taller opponents and his habit of fighting with his hands down. He notes that Green had trouble with Lance Gibson Jr. and was destroyed by Jalin Turner. He predicts Zellhuber will TKO Green, as Green is open to shots and Zellhuber is a big favorite.

Zane picks Zellhuber because Bobby Green is clearly past his prime at 39 and has lost his speed and defensive instincts. He notes that Green's style relies on head movement and baiting, which no longer works against younger fighters. Zellhuber has problems with discipline and can lose rounds, but Green's decline is too severe to pick him.

Angelo picks Édgar Cháirez, describing him as a well-rounded fighter with good striking, takedowns, and BJJ. He notes Cháirez's toughness and quality losses to top fighters. He believes Cháirez is too long and tricky for Felipe Bunes, and expects him to win as long as he doesn't get caught in a submission.

Big Brady is high on Édgar Cháirez, praising his toughness, dangerous jiu-jitsu, and improved boxing. He notes Felipe Bunes has poor cardio (especially in elevation) and is dangerous early but likely to gas. Brady predicts Cháirez will hurt Bunes on the feet, Bunes will shoot a sloppy takedown, and Cháirez will snatch a submission, possibly a first-round club and sub.

Cody agrees with Paul, highlighting Cháirez's pace, durability, and altitude preparation. He sees Bunes as a prime candidate to fade due to his explosive but unsustainable style. He expects Cháirez to win as the fight progresses.

Connor also picks Cháirez but notes that Bunes is a creative striker who can find his timing and land shots. He points out that Bunes's wrestling is a weakness, but Cháirez doesn't wrestle much. However, Connor believes Cháirez's toughness and willingness to push the pace will earn him the win, though it could be a war.

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

The host considers this a dog-or-pass fight. Cháirez is a heavy favorite at -347, but the odds feel too wide. He notes that Cháirez has power but slows down, while Bunes has volume but is older and not a finisher. The host would have to bet Bunes if betting, but expects him to lose.

James views Cháirez as the more well-rounded fighter with better striking, cardio, and durability. He believes Bunes' reckless style will lead to fatigue, allowing Cháirez to finish him. James predicts Cháirez wins inside the distance.

The host picks Édgar Cháirez inside the distance, expecting a second or third round finish. He notes Cháirez's Muay Thai and jiu-jitsu, and believes his cardio will outlast Bunes, who fades after the first round. He likes the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop at -200 rather than the chalky line on Cháirez.

Paul likes Cháirez's durability, training at altitude, and well-rounded game. He notes Bunes fades after the first round and has poor cardio. He expects Cháirez to take over in rounds 2 and 3 and is comfortable parlaying him.

The MMA Guru picks Édgar Cháirez, noting that he looked much better against Joshua Van than Felipe Bunes did. He describes Cháirez as a tricky fighter who is big for flyweight and has finishing potential, predicting a finish in the first two rounds. He also cites the Mexico City altitude advantage for Cháirez.

Zane picks Cháirez because he is the more consistent round-to-round danger and has an instinctive sense of where he stands in the fight. He notes that Bunes often starts slow and needs time to process, while Cháirez will increase aggression and take the fight to him. Zane also mentions that Cháirez is rangier and fights long, which could trouble Bunes.

Angelo picks Imanol Rodriguez, noting his fast, clean striking and one-punch knockout power. He highlights Rodriguez's heart and composure even in his loss, and believes he will win outright. He considers Rodriguez one of the safer larger favorites on the card.

Big Brady picks Imanol Rodriguez, calling him a prospect to watch with impressive striking, volume, and forward pressure. He notes Kevin Borjas had a bizarre low-volume performance in his last fight and believes Rodriguez is better everywhere. He predicts a second-round knockout.

Cody picks Rodriguez but worries about his tendency to go all-out and gas at altitude. He notes Borjas's poor striking defense and the poor record of his gym. He took Rodriguez by KO at +130 as a prop.

Connor agrees, calling Rodriguez a triple-A prospect who looks like a future title contender. He notes that Borjas has some counterpunching ability but will struggle to deal with Rodriguez's ferocious pressure and speed. Connor believes Rodriguez's combination of athleticism and technical skill will be too much for Borjas.

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

The host believes Rodriguez is most likely to win but the odds are too wide at -454. He notes that Rodriguez is a grappler with good cardio, while Borjas is a volume striker who may fade at altitude. However, since Rodriguez is making his UFC debut and the odds are extreme, the host passes on betting.

James is high on Rodriguez as a prospect, citing his impressive performance against Joseph Morales and his aggressive, powerful style. He believes Rodriguez's pressure and body work will break Borjas, who tends to fade under pace. James predicts a KO win for Rodriguez.

The host picks Imanol Rodriguez inside the distance, citing his wrestling background, finishing ability, and overall advantages. He believes Rodriguez will land big shots, change levels, and work to a dominant position on the ground. He considers Rodriguez a future title contender and recommends him as a parlay piece.

Paul is high on Rodriguez's talent, speed, and power. He notes Borjas's durability but lack of offense and poor recent form. He expects Rodriguez to land big shots and win, though he cautions about the -450 price and Rodriguez's inexperience.

The MMA Guru picks Imanol Rodriguez, praising his boxing, head movement, and maturity. He notes that Rodriguez had a close split decision with Joseph Morales but showed good grappling, while Kevin Borjas only has a win over Ronaldo Rodriguez, who is not that good. He also mentions the Mexico City altitude advantage for Rodriguez.

Zane picks Rodriguez as a blue-chip prospect with elite athleticism and a well-rounded game. He notes that Borjas is too dependent on being the stronger or more technical fighter, and Rodriguez is both athletic and technical. Rodriguez's wrestling and aggressive striking will overwhelm Borjas, who has struggled against better athletes.

Angelo picks Santiago Luna as the better fighter, citing his athleticism, speed, and technique. He acknowledges Angel Pacheco's toughness and volume but believes Luna's superior skills will prevail. His only concern is Luna's lack of decision experience, as he has mostly finished fights early, but he still expects Luna to win.

Big Brady picks Santiago Luna, describing him as all offense and no defense but with more power and grappling upside than Angel Pacheco. He notes Pacheco has even worse defense and has been out for a while. Brady predicts a barn burner and expects Luna to knock out Pacheco in the second round.

Cody agrees Luna should win but warns about his inexperience and potential nerves. He notes Pacheco's high volume and durability, and suggests live betting or the KO prop rather than the heavy moneyline.

Connor also picks Luna, noting that Pacheco is a hard worker but simply not a UFC-level athlete. He points out that Luna has fast hands and power, and while his technical game needs work, he has been able to dominate lesser athletes. Connor expects Luna to beat Pacheco up, possibly with a finish.

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

The host is strongly considering betting Pacheco because the odds are absurdly wide. He notes that Luna is very average and Pacheco is tough on the feet, but Pacheco gives up cheap takedowns and has been inactive for two years. The host wants to see how Pacheco weighs in before deciding. He believes Pacheco has a better than 18% chance of winning, making him a tempting value bet.

James is a big fan of Luna, calling him a top prospect with elite wrestling and power. He notes Pacheco's poor defense and tendency to take damage, predicting Luna will finish him. James expects Luna to win decisively.

The host is very confident in Santiago Luna, calling him far superior everywhere. He notes Luna's wrestling background, finishing ability, and youth (21). He expects Luna to finish Pacheco inside the distance, either by KO or submission. He is surprised the line is only -450 and expects it to balloon to -900 by fight time.

Paul believes Luna will knock out Pacheco, citing Pacheco's high volume of strikes absorbed and history of being knocked down. He likes Luna's youth and aggression, and recommends the KO prop at +160 rather than the moneyline.

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Luna, noting his solid wins including a TKO over Kwang Lee in his debut. He mentions that Luna is a very good prospect with wicked striking and is a massive favorite at -700. He believes Luna should easily win, though he struggles to remember details about his opponent Angel Pacheco, who lost to Caolan Loughran.

Zane picks Luna because Pacheco is not athletic enough for the UFC. He notes that Pacheco was outboxed by Colin Loughran, who is not a top athlete, and Luna is faster and more powerful. Luna's hand speed and combinations will overwhelm Pacheco, who has shown he cannot handle fast strikers.

Angelo picks Ryan Gandra because José Medina is one of the worst fighters in the UFC, on a four-fight losing streak. He describes Gandra as a busy forward-pressure striker who throws volume. He expects Gandra to overwhelm Medina with punches, though he notes Medina is tough and could survive into the later rounds.

Big Brady picks Ryan Gandra, calling José Medina the worst signing in Contender Series history and noting he is 0-3 in the UFC. He admits Gandra is wild and reckless but believes he will win easily, likely by first-round knockout. He notes the line is crazy but cannot picture Medina winning any UFC fight.

Cody picks Gandra, highlighting his finishing ability and Medina's lack of defense. He notes Gandra can win by KO or submission and expects a dominant performance. He sees this as a showcase for Gandra.

Connor agrees with Zane, calling Gandra a promising prospect with a raw game built on power. He criticizes Medina as a normal person who is slow and lacks power, and notes that Gandra should walk through him. Connor expects a quick finish or a dominant decision.

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

The host notes that Gandra is a heavy favorite but the odds are too wide to bet on him. He points out that Medina has a path to victory through his toughness and cardio, especially at high altitude where Gandra may gas out. However, the host is not betting Medina himself, as he expects Gandra to win most of the time. He considers it a dog-or-pass fight.

James sees Gandra as a much better fighter with real power, while Medina's only attribute is durability. He believes Gandra will eventually finish Medina, possibly by KO or submission. James predicts a Gandra win, likely by KO.

The host picks Ryan Gandra by submission, citing his BJJ brown belt and judo. He notes that Medina has lost 8 straight rounds and is not UFC caliber. He expects Gandra to take the fight to the ground and submit Medina, similar to Dusko Todorovic's win. He warns about Medina's durability but believes Gandra's grappling will prevail.

Paul expects Gandra to finish Medina early, noting Medina's poor record and lack of skills. He recommends the Gandra round 1 prop at +180, but is not fully confident due to Gandra's late arrival at altitude.

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Gandra, calling José Medina a fighter who should not be in the UFC after being dominated by Zachary Reese and Teemu Kärkkäinen. He notes Gandra's impressive Contender Series win and predicts a destructive TKO in the first round.

Zane picks Ryan Gandra based on his athleticism, power, and aggression. He notes that Gandra is a raw prospect but should overwhelm José Medina, who is slow, lacks power, and has lost four straight. Zane expects Gandra to win by landing bigger shots, possibly finishing early.

Angelo is shocked that Ailín Pérez is only a -165 favorite, believing she should be a -300 favorite. He highlights Pérez's relentless takedowns and pressure, noting that Macy Chiasson gets taken down easily and has been on a losing skid. He expects Pérez to shoot takedowns and win a decision, especially with the Mexican judges favoring aggression.

Big Brady picks Ailín Pérez but expresses hesitation due to elevation concerns and Pérez's history of gassing. He compares Macy Chiasson to 'female Phil Rowe,' noting she is big but ineffective and can be controlled on the ground. He believes Pérez can take Chiasson down and win the first two rounds, but the third could be sketchy. He predicts a decision win.

Cody agrees, noting Chiasson's weight cut issues and tendency to fade. He highlights Pérez's strong top game and expects a decision win. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins to potentially get better odds on Pérez.

Connor picks Pérez, noting that Chiasson is breakable and lacks durability. He points out that Chiasson's wins often come when she is confident, but she tends to fade or get finished. Pérez is tough and knows how to win, making her the safer pick despite Chiasson's finishing ability.

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

The host is betting on Chiasson despite her inconsistency because the odds are too wide. He believes Chiasson is better than Pérez everywhere: she has a huge size and reach advantage, is a better striker and grappler, and has superior cardio. However, Chiasson has self-destructive tendencies and bad fight IQ, making her unreliable. The host caps the fight at 50/50 because Chiasson only shows up half the time, but at +149, the value is too good to pass up. He also notes Pérez's cardio may suffer at high altitude.

James favors Pérez due to her wrestling and top control, which should neutralize Chiasson's striking. He notes Chiasson's confidence issues and tendency to wilt when pressured. James predicts Pérez wins by decision, though he admits bias as he knows Pérez personally.

The host picks Macy Chiasson as an underdog, surprised that Pérez is -185. He believes Chiasson is stronger and lands more damage, while Pérez relies on grinding top control. He expects Chiasson to defend takedowns and land the better strikes, winning a decision. He notes Chiasson's recent losing streak but thinks she matches up well.

Paul expects Pérez to use her wrestling to control Chiasson, who struggles with weight cuts and cardio at altitude. He sees a decision win for Pérez and recommends waiting for weigh-ins to confirm Chiasson's condition.

The MMA Guru picks Ailín Pérez, trusting her takedown entries and physicality. He notes that Macy Chiasson looked bad in her last fight against Irene Aldana, and he believes Pérez can take her down and control the ground. He predicts a 29-28 decision win, acknowledging that Pérez has been improving and has a strong build for the division.

Zane picks Pérez because she is mentally consistent, has a clear winning game plan, and sticks to it. He notes that Chiasson is bigger and more powerful but breaks down mentally and physically. Pérez's takedown game and high motor should wear on Chiasson, who has a weak core and struggles with leverage.

Angelo picks Cristian Quiñonez because Kris Moutinho is a 'human punching bag' who has absorbed 283 strikes and been knocked out three times in the UFC. He acknowledges Quiñonez is not great either, but at least he has won in the UFC. He warns against betting at -650 odds, calling it not worth it.

Big Brady picks Cristian Quiñonez, calling Kris Moutinho a non-UFC-level fighter with terrible striking defense (29%). He notes Moutinho has been knocked out five times and finished in all losses. Brady believes Quiñonez will hit Moutinho hard and knock him out, predicting a first-round knockout.

Cody also fades Quiñonez at -700, pointing out his inactivity and lack of recent wins. He sees Moutinho as a live dog if he can push the pace and exploit Quiñonez's potential cardio issues.

Connor picks Quiñonez, noting that Moutinho is a sacrificial lamb who has been knocked out in every UFC fight. Quiñonez is not a big step up but is still a step up, and his pressure and size should be too much for Moutinho's limited game.

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

The host considers this a clear dog-or-pass fight. Quiñonez is a heavy favorite at -687, but the host cannot bet him at that price. Moutinho is tough but gets rocked often, lacks knockout power, and is unlikely to outgrapple Quiñonez. The host doubts Moutinho has a realistic path to victory and will not bet this fight.

James believes Quiñonez is far more skilled and powerful than Moutinho, who has a suspect chin after recent KOs. He predicts an early KO for Quiñonez, possibly in round one.

The host picks Quiñonez but is hesitant due to the high price and altitude concerns. He notes Quiñonez's skill advantage but worries about his cardio and past submission losses. He thinks Moutinho's pressure and pace could cause issues if Quiñonez fades. He suggests a flyer on Moutinho by late finish but officially picks Quiñonez by decision.

Paul is leaning towards Moutinho at +500, citing Quiñonez's long layoff, ring rust, and recent losses. He notes Moutinho's pressure and durability, and plans to bet Moutinho despite the risk.

The MMA Guru picks Cristian Quiñonez, calling Kris Moutinho 'garbage' and noting that Moutinho has no wins over good fighters, while Quiñonez has beaten Khalid Taha and Vinicius Oliveira. He predicts an easy TKO finish in the early rounds, citing Moutinho's lack of skill and Quiñonez's superior competition.

Zane picks Quiñonez because he is a step up from Moutinho, who is a one-dimensional brawler with no other options. Quiñonez showed good ideas against Hani Barcelos, pressing forward and testing his wrestling. Moutinho has been knocked out in every UFC fight and is not UFC level.

Angelo picks Javier Reyes despite acknowledging that Douglas Silva de Andrade is the better individual fighter. He cites Silva de Andrade's age (40) and long layoff (almost two years) as major concerns. He believes Reyes's busy, active style and youth will overwhelm the older fighter, as long as Reyes avoids poor takedown attempts.

Big Brady picks the underdog Douglas Silva de Andrade, despite his age (40) and moving up to featherweight. He believes Andrade's elite takedown defense will neutralize Javier Reyes' grappling, and that Andrade is the better striker. He notes Reyes has been knocked out before and predicts a second-round knockout for Andrade.

Cody agrees, noting Silva de Andrade's age, muscle mass, and inactivity. He sees Reyes as a human tornado with high KO percentage and expects him to overwhelm Silva de Andrade.

Connor picks Reyes as a sadness hedge, noting that Silva is older, less active, and getting hurt more. Reyes has finished many opponents and tries to finish, while Silva's durability has declined. However, Connor acknowledges that Silva would win at any other point in their careers.

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

The host is betting on Andrade because he believes the odds are wildly inaccurate. He notes that Andrade is a nightmare matchup for Reyes: he has knockout power, a granite chin, is tough, well-rounded, and difficult to take down. Reyes is making his UFC debut, looks flat, has poor striking defense, and is not physically imposing. Despite Andrade being 40 and on a two-year layoff, the host thinks he should be the favorite and is great value at +187.

James expects Reyes' relentless pace and cardio to overwhelm the 40-year-old Silva de Andrade, who may tire after a layoff. He predicts a late finish for Reyes, possibly in round three.

The host picks Javier Reyes, noting that Silva de Andrade is 40, has been inactive, and moves up in weight. He believes Reyes's well-rounded game, size advantage, and grappling will be key. He expects Reyes to take the fight to the ground and grind out a decision, though he warns that Silva de Andrade has power early and could replicate a past knockout of Reyes.

Paul likes Reyes's finishing ability and believes Silva de Andrade's age, layoff, and health issues will be factors. He expects Reyes to win by knockout, possibly in the second or third round, and recommends the KO prop at +350.

The MMA Guru picks Javier Reyes over the 40-year-old Douglas Silva de Andrade, who has looked poor in recent fights. He notes that Reyes has fought decent competition outside the UFC and is a young prospect, while Andrade has lost power and physicality moving up to featherweight. He predicts a 29-28 decision win for Reyes.

Zane picks Silva de Andrade despite his age and inactivity, because Reyes is a mess with poor footwork and no structure. Silva has a janky but effective style and has fought elite competition. However, Silva is 40, coming off a layoff, and has lost a step, making this a 50/50 toss-up.

Angelo picks Ernesta Kareckaitė (referred to as 'Carrot Cake') because she is a solid striker with good footwork, fast hands, and head movement. He notes that she uses her length well and can fight on the ground if needed. He believes her technical striking and volume will outpoint the power of Sophia Montenegro (Regina Tarin), who is hittable and lacks defensive acumen.

Big Brady picks Ernesta Kareckaitė, citing her high volume striking (almost 8 significant strikes per minute) and solid takedown defense (82%). He notes that opponent Sophia Montenegro is very hitable and has poor defense, while Kareckaitė lacks power but should win by decision. He jokes about her nickname 'Heavy-handed' being inaccurate.

Cody also leans Kareckaitė, citing her striking output and Tarin's short notice. He notes Tarin is a local Muay Thai fighter but lacks MMA experience. He is not heavily invested.

Connor picks Kareckaitė, agreeing with Zane that she is the better fighter. He notes that Tarin is on short notice and less athletic, making Kareckaitė the clear choice.

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

The host is tempted to bet on Kareckaitė but is concerned about home advantage for Tarin in Mexico City. He notes that Kareckaitė is 20-30% better technically, but Tarin is aggressive and could make rounds close, potentially swaying judges. He hasn't made up his mind and will decide later.

James views Kareckaitė as the better striker with superior cardio and volume, though she often goes to split decisions. He expects her to pull away after round one, possibly winning by TKO in round three or decision.

The host leans with Kareckaitė, citing her reach advantage and distance striking. He acknowledges Montenegro's power and takedown threat but believes Kareckaitė's defensive grappling has improved. He expects a close decision and likes the decision prop at around +100. He warns that Montenegro could grind out a win if she gets takedowns.

Paul leans towards Kareckaitė due to her experience, striking volume, and preparation for the card. He notes Tarin is a late replacement and less experienced, but the line is tight and he may not bet it.

The MMA Guru picks Ernesta Kareckaitė over Regina Tarin, citing Tarin's lack of quality wins and her hype based on looks rather than skill. He notes that Kareckaitė has a win over Kali Robbins and showed high-level skills in a Contender Series fight, while Tarin is taking the fight on short notice and is only 21 years old. He acknowledges Tarin could pull off a submission but favors the more experienced fighter.

Zane picks Kareckaitė because she is a more reliable volume striker with a better range game and clinch work. Tarin is similar to Montenegro but with less coordination and athleticism, and is on short notice. Kareckaitė should win by outworking Tarin.

Angelo picks Francis Marshall because he is younger, faster, and a better wrestler than Erik Silva. He notes that both fighters have similar game plans, but Marshall's youth and wrestling advantage give him the edge. He expects Marshall to win everywhere in the fight.

Big Brady is very confident in Francis Marshall, calling Erik Silva one of the worst fighters on the UFC roster. He notes Marshall was robbed in his last fight against Marian Santos and is facing a massive step down in competition. Brady highlights Silva's poor cardio, especially in elevation, and Marshall's striking power. He predicts a second-round knockout.

Cody agrees, highlighting Marshall's wrestling and striking advantages. He notes Silva's only path is an early submission, but Marshall's wrestling should neutralize that. He expects Marshall to get back in the win column.

Connor picks Marshall, noting that Silva has no good sense of position and will get run into the cage. Marshall's high energy and scrambling should win out. Silva is 38 and has never developed a complete MMA game.

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

The host believes Francis Marshall is the clear better fighter but the odds are too wide to bet on him at -776. He suggests that if you must bet this fight, Erik Silva is the only option because Marshall's implied probability of 89% is too high. However, he notes Silva is not particularly dangerous, has been inactive for two years, and is 38 years old, making it a very bad bet.

James favors Marshall due to his youth, wrestling, and improvement, while Silva is older and coming off injury. He predicts Marshall will dominate on the ground and finish via submission or ground and pound.

The host picks Francis Marshall, noting that Marshall is young (26) and improving, while Silva is 39 and coming off a long layoff and injury. He believes Marshall's grappling defense and superior striking will lead to a finish, possibly by knockout or submission in rounds 2 or 3. He is comfortable parlaying Marshall despite the -700 price.

Paul expects Marshall to dominate, citing his youth, wrestling, and recent improvements. He notes Silva's age, layoff, and submission-heavy style that likely won't work against Marshall. He sees Marshall as a safe pick.

The MMA Guru picks Francis Marshall, noting that Marshall has had close fights with tough opponents like Mayra Santos and William Gomis, while Erik Silva has not been tested against quality competition. He believes Marshall's experience and ability to go the distance with better fighters gives him the edge, and he predicts a submission win.

Zane picks Marshall because he is a high-hustle fighter who will outwork Silva over the long haul. Silva is 38, has no positional sense, and his disparate skills don't form a cohesive MMA game. Marshall's aggression and scrambling should overwhelm Silva.

Angelo picks Wes Schultz because of his credentialed wrestling and ability to take down Damian Pinas, whose takedown defense is just okay. He notes that in Mexico, wrestling is scored more favorably than in Vegas. He acknowledges Pinas's power but believes Schultz can neutralize it with takedowns.

Big Brady picks Damian Pinas, citing his knockout power and youth at 23. He acknowledges Pinas is green and has concerns if the fight hits the mat, as Wes Schultz has good jiu-jitsu and a submission win on the Contender Series. However, Brady believes it will be hard for Schultz to take Pinas down, and if he doesn't, Pinas will put him away. He predicts a first-round knockout.

Cody picks Pinas, believing his power and youth will eventually overcome Schultz's wrestling. He expects Pinas to tire Schultz out and knock him out in later rounds. He sees Pinas as the better prospect.

Connor picks Pinas, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Schultz's loss to Dylan Budka is a huge red flag, as Budka caught him with a body lock and slammed him. Pinas hits hard and is instinctive, and Schultz puts himself in position to take hard punches.

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

The host finds this fight difficult to predict due to limited footage of both fighters going past the first round. He notes that Damian is explosive and powerful but has never been to a decision, while Schultz has cardio concerns but may have improved. The high altitude in Mexico City adds uncertainty. He concludes it's a great fight for live betting but not for pre-fight bets.

James believes Pinas is the better striker and has superior cardio, while Schultz tends to fade. He expects Pinas to win, likely by knockout, as Schultz's grappling may not be enough.

The host picks Damian Pinas to win by first-round knockout, citing Pinas's athleticism and power. He notes that Pinas is a raw but powerful striker who can put Schultz away early. However, he warns that if the fight goes past the first round, Schultz's wrestling and cardio could take over. He prefers the round 1 KO prop at +250 over the moneyline at -260.

Paul took a small shot on Schultz at +215, citing his superior wrestling and Pinas's potential cardio issues at altitude. He notes Schultz's tendency to gas but believes his grappling can win early rounds. He acknowledges Pinas's power and upside.

The MMA Guru picks Damian Pinas based on his explosiveness and power, noting that Wes Schultz tends to shy away from punches and has shown fear against athletic opponents. He predicts a first-round TKO, citing Pinas's sharp striking and Schultz's vulnerability. He also mentions that Pinas might get cut if he loses, but that doesn't affect his pick.

Zane picks Pinas because he needs this man to have a long career for entertainment value. He notes that Schultz has a loss to Dylan Budka, which is a red flag, and that Pinas hits hard and is instinctive. However, Pinas is raw and his wrestling is questionable.