UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, noting that she dominated the first fight and has improved her striking since. He believes Ribas is the better striker and wrestler, and that her takedown defense and cardio will be key. He thinks the five rounds favor Ribas, as Dern's danger decreases as the fight goes on. He mentions Jacob had a big bet on Ribas at plus money when she was an underdog.

Big Brady notes that Dern has improved her striking and takedown accuracy since their first fight, but still considers her wrestling and striking not great. He highlights Ribas's elite takedown defense (85%) and her own grappling ability, meaning she won't be afraid to grapple. He predicts Ribas will dictate where the fight takes place and win by decision, though not as dominant as the first fight.

Cody leans toward Ribas despite the -200 price, citing Dern's inability to chain wrestle and finish submissions over three years. He notes Dern's mental lapses in later rounds and Ribas's forward pressure and power. He suggests a live bet strategy, expecting Ribas to win rounds 3-5 as Dern fades.

Connor picks Ribas because she has a fundamental technical advantage on the feet and a style that counters Dern's approach. He notes that Dern's striking defense is nonexistent and she cannot land the same strike twice due to poor technique. Ribas is comfortable trading and landing cleaner counters, as seen in their first fight. Dern's path to victory requires a simple aggressive game plan, but she lacks the technical ability to execute it consistently.

Daniel acknowledges Ribas is more technically sound but notes her chinny defect, having been knocked out by multiple opponents. He thinks Ribas will dominate but could get cracked, so he passes on betting. As a pure pick, he goes with Ribas via decision, citing her superior technique and the fact that she usually needs to be finished to lose. He also mentions Dern's improved hands but still favors Ribas.

Lucrative James confidently picks Amanda Ribas, having placed a bet at -160. He believes Ribas is better in all facets of MMA, as shown in their first fight. He notes that five rounds favor Ribas's cardio and experience, though Dern's danger (power, submissions) offsets it slightly. He hasn't seen enough improvement from Dern to change the outcome. He also mentions that the line has moved to -200, giving him CLV.

Ribas is still ahead of Dern and should stop Dern's poor wrestling. Ribas will be more effective and active with her striking, busting up Dern and winning on the scorecards in this rematch from 2019.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Dern's improved focus but still rudimentary wrestling. He highlights Ribas's takedown defense and well-roundedness, and that Dern went 0 for 6 on takedowns in their first fight. He is not excited about -200 but sees Ribas as the rightful favorite.

The Guru struggles with this pick, initially leaning towards Dern but then recalling that Ribas won the first fight by stuffing takedowns and outstriking Dern. He notes Dern's poor striking and Ribas's suspect chin but ultimately goes with Ribas, predicting a TKO in round 3 or 4. He expresses frustration with the difficulty of the pick.

Zane agrees with Connor, initially seeing an avenue for Dern but concluding that Ribas is the correct pick. He notes that Dern's success comes against opponents terrified of her ground game or those she can outmuscle, but Ribas is not afraid to scrap and will fire back. Dern's lack of technical improvement and inability to finish fights in recent years are key factors. Zane also mentions that Ribas has not changed her style, which works against Dern.

Angelo picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, citing his speed, cleaner striking, and better cardio. He notes that Carlston Harris has more power and aggressive grappling, but believes Ponzinibbio's volume and pressure will win. He expresses concern about Ponzinibbio's commentating job potentially distracting him, but still picks him. He mentions Ponzinibbio was an underdog but may flip to favorite.

Big Brady likes Harris's grappling advantage, noting his elite submission game and front chokes. He thinks Ponzinibbio's chin is declining, having been knocked out by the Leech and Kevin Holland. He believes Harris has more ways to win, either by submission or a club-and-sub. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop, as both guys have poor durability and can finish each other.

Cody picks Ponzinibbio despite his recent 2-5 record, arguing that Harris is also flawed with poor takedown accuracy and stiff striking. He believes Ponzinibbio's veteran savvy, range, and power will allow him to land first. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a knockout.

Connor picks Ponzinibbio because Harris is fundamentally bad at MMA, relying on wild aggression and grappling without structure. Ponzinibbio is a good defensive wrestler and strong in the clinch, and his straight punches and footwork make him difficult to clinch against. While Ponzinibbio is older and slower, he still has a process and toughness, and his losses have come against sharp strikers, not wild punchers like Harris. Connor notes that if Ponzinibbio loses, it would be his worst loss since 2011.

Daniel notes both fighters are washed up and chinny, but historically Ponzinibbio was one fight away from a title shot and has better credentials. He thinks Ponzinibbio's experience and jab/straight right will be enough, though he's not confident. He mentions Harris has dangerous front chokes but Ponzinibbio rarely shoots. He picks Ponzinibbio to win and retire.

Lucrative James gives a lean toward Santiago Ponzinibbio, but admits he hasn't done extensive research. He believes Ponzinibbio is the better striker and can defend takedowns, while Harris's best chance is an early knockout. He predicts a decision win for Ponzinibbio in a lackluster fight. He cautions that this is an early read and he may not bet it.

Ponzinibbio's technical striking should allow him to pick apart Harris and eventually find a knockout, but he must be wary of Harris's big power and reckless swinging. As long as Ponzinibbio's speed hasn't diminished, he should find openings to put Harris away.

Paul leans toward Harris as a slight plus-money underdog, citing Ponzinibbio's age and damage absorbed. He notes Harris's crafty submission game and power, but admits both are flawed. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds as a bet rather than the moneyline.

The Guru picks Ponzinibbio despite questioning why this is a co-main event. He notes Ponzinibbio's split decision loss to Muslim Salikhov and leg kicks against Holland, and his win over Alex Morono. He contrasts Harris's inactivity, age (37), and KO loss to Chaos Williams. He acknowledges Ponzinibbio's recent chinny reputation but thinks he's good enough to beat Harris.

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Ponzinibbio has not lost his innate understanding of how to fight and is still tough. He points out that Ponzinibbio's recent losses are to elite fighters, and he has competed well against fringe contenders. Harris, despite being a natural athlete, has poor technique and has never been that good. Zane also mentions that Ponzinibbio's pattern of slow starts and strong finishes could be a factor, but Harris is unlikely to capitalize early.

Angelo picks César Almeida, reasoning that Abdul Razak Alhassan is essentially a striker despite his Judo background, and Almeida is the more accomplished kickboxer. He notes Alhassan's age (39) and that strikers decline faster. He believes Almeida's striking will be the difference, as Alhassan doesn't use his Judo. He has Almeida in a parlay with Uroš Medić.

Big Brady is baffled by the line and not high on Almeida. He notes Almeida's takedown defense is a serious concern, as he was taken down by Potieria and Kopylov. However, he thinks Alhassan's cardio and age (39) are issues, and Alhassan has never won a fight past 6 minutes. He predicts Almeida will win the last two rounds on the feet and win by decision, as Alhassan will slow down.

Cody fades Almeida as a -250 favorite, citing his poor takedown defense exposed by Roman Kopylov and Ihor Potieria. He notes Alhassan's power, improved cardio training at altitude, and veteran experience. He believes Alhassan can win by knockout or by grinding out a decision if he mixes in takedowns.

Connor picks Almeida because he is a more technical striker who does not get flustered, and he has shown ability to handle wrestling and grappling threats. Almeida is comfortable in the clinch and finds strikes on the break. Alhassan, despite his power, is structureless on the back foot and tends to fight off his back foot, which plays into Almeida's hands. Connor notes that Alhassan's only path is to land a big shot early, but Almeida's counter-striking and patience should prevail.

Daniel acknowledges Alhassan's devastating first-round KO power and judo background, but worries about his cardio and age (close to 40). He thinks Almeida's technical kickboxing will pick Alhassan apart if the fight goes past the first round. He leans Almeida but calls it a dog-or-pass situation for betting.

Lucrative James picks César Almeida to win, citing his superior kickboxing and cardio. He acknowledges Alhassan's power and wrestling threat, but believes Alhassan will gas if the fight goes past round one. He notes Almeida's poor grappling but thinks Alhassan won't be able to wrestle for three rounds. He also mentions a prop bet on over 1.5 rounds at -170, as he expects Almeida to survive the early storm.

Almeida has technical combinations while Alhassan has power. Almeida can shut down Alhassan's judo attempts, keep the fight on the feet, pick him apart, and win on the scorecards.

Paul also picks Alhassan, calling Almeida untrustworthy due to his grappling deficiencies. He notes that Alhassan has a judo base and has taken down good fighters. He placed a bet on under 1.5 rounds at +145, expecting a violent finish.

The Guru picks Almeida but is not fully confident. He was unimpressed by Almeida's performance against Ihor Potieria (despite the eye pokes) but notes Almeida is younger (36 vs 39), trains with Pereira, and has momentum. He acknowledges Alhassan's explosiveness and danger but points out his six losses and age. He predicts a TKO, thinking Almeida might chin Alhassan.

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Almeida is a violent but limited kickboxer who has shown resilience and ability to adapt. He points out that Almeida's guillotine threat and comfort in the clinch make him dangerous. Alhassan is nearly 40 with only two wins since 2018, and his fight IQ is poor. Zane also mentions that Alhassan's tendency to fight off his back foot will allow Almeida to be first and land cleaner shots.

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, stating he is the better striker in a matchup that will likely stay on the feet. He acknowledges Chris Curtis is the more well-rounded fighter but notes Curtis rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kopylov's kickboxing to outpoint Curtis, leading to a decision win. He mentions the odds have widened from -180 to -245.

Big Brady expects a striker's delight with both guys likely not looking for takedowns. He notes Kopylov has more tools on the feet, including kicks, volume, and power. He points out Curtis is knockout-reliant and not a minute-winner, while Kopylov is durable with a big head. He predicts Kopylov wins by decision, as both are durable and have only one knockout loss combined.

Cody is all in on Curtis as a +210 underdog, citing Kopylov's cardio issues and Curtis's experience and body work. He expects Kopylov to fade in rounds 2-3, allowing Curtis to take over. He also dismisses the 'spygate' drama as gamesmanship.

Connor picks Kopylov because Curtis is an emotional fighter who struggles when frustrated, and Kopylov is a momentum builder who can take over as the fight goes on. Curtis's counter-punching style and predictable footwork make him vulnerable to Kopylov's kicking game and pressure. While Curtis has a path to victory by pressuring and leading, Connor doubts he will execute it consistently. Kopylov's ability to build momentum and his improved game after early UFC struggles are key factors.

Daniel believes Kopylov has the tools to keep Curtis at distance with jabs and body kicks, but worries about Kopylov's cardio in later rounds. He notes Curtis is a durable southpaw pocket boxer with elite takedown defense. He thinks Kopylov can win a decision if he avoids pocket exchanges, but it could get sketchy late. He picks Kopylov but is concerned about the -250 price.

Lucrative James confidently picks Roman Kopylov, stating he has all the tools to win. He highlights Kopylov's kicking, footwork, and potential grappling advantage, noting that Chris Curtis refuses to wrestle. He believes the blueprint to beat Curtis is the Jack Hermansson game plan, which Kopylov can replicate. He warns that Curtis is a better boxer and can crack, but outside of a big shot, he sees Kopylov winning clearly.

Kopylov is a superior striker and should be able to touch up Curtis, who is at a disadvantage fighting at middleweight. However, Kopylov's cardio can falter in deep water, which Curtis could exploit. Still, Kopylov has enough power to be the second person to finish Curtis by knockout in 43 professional fights.

Paul initially picked Kopylov but flipped to Curtis after Cody's argument. He agrees that Kopylov's wrestling won't be effective and that Curtis has cardio and volume advantages. He notes the line is too high on Kopylov.

The Guru confidently picks Kopylov, calling Curtis a 'crybaby' and criticizing his basic style. He believes Kopylov's striking versatility (head, body, leg kicks) will outclass Curtis's boxing-heavy approach. He notes Curtis's age (37), recent leg injury, and the spy controversy as signs of weakness. He expects a striking match where Kopylov sets patterns and breaks Curtis down.

Zane also picks Kopylov, noting that Curtis is a smart fighter but often gets in his own head. Kopylov is weak going backwards, but Curtis is weak going forward and cutting off the cage. Zane envisions a neutral fight where both struggle to impose their game, but Kopylov's ability to build momentum and Curtis's tendency to be inactive give Kopylov the edge. Zane does not trust Curtis to fight smart consistently.

Angelo picks Austin Bashi, believing he is a better prospect than those Christian Rodriguez has beaten before. He notes Bashi's well-rounded skills, particularly his grappling and improved striking. He thinks Bashi's wrestling and cardio will be too much for Rodriguez, who has been submitted before. He considers Bashi safe to bet on despite being a UFC debutant.

Big Brady is extremely high on Bashi, calling him the number one prospect from contender series. He notes Bashi is well-rounded, has great cardio, and can wrestle for 15 minutes, unlike previous undefeated prospects who gassed against Rodriguez. He acknowledges Rodriguez has beaten undefeated prospects before, but believes Bashi's cardio and durability will be the difference. He predicts Bashi wins by decision in a close fight.

Cody picks Bashi despite the high price, believing his wrestling and youth will overwhelm Rodriguez. He notes Rodriguez's poor takedown defense and weight misses at 135. He expects Bashi to secure takedowns and win two of three rounds.

Connor picks Rodriguez because of his experience and craft, despite being physically outmatched. Rodriguez is an excellent scrambler, patient, and persistent, and he has shown he can outlast stronger opponents like Dulgarian. Bashi is a great prospect, but this is a tough stylistic matchup for him. Connor notes that Rodriguez's boxing and positional grappling are high-level, and he believes Rodriguez's determination and fight IQ will carry him through.

Daniel thinks Rodriguez is in the wrong weight class (too small for featherweight) and has had issues with grapplers who gas, but Bashi has endless cardio and strong grappling. He predicts Bashi will have grappling success and win a decision, similar to Rodriguez's previous fights but without the gas issue. He notes the odds have moved from -190 to -270, making it a pass for betting.

Lucrative James leans toward Christian Rodriguez at plus 250, citing Rodriguez's proven track record against undefeated prospects. He believes Rodriguez is the better striker and has improved his anti-wrestling. He notes that Bashi is a strong grappler but making his UFC debut, which often leads to underperformance. He also mentions that Rodriguez is not a natural featherweight, which is a concern. He hasn't fully decided on a bet yet but sees value.

Rodriguez is a good scrambler and defensive grappler who can cause Bashi trouble in establishing dominant positions. He can then get the fight to striking, where he is the cleaner and superior striker, landing more damage and winning on the scorecards.

Paul leans toward Rodriguez as a dog, questioning Bashi's readiness despite his potential. He notes Rodriguez's experience against prospects and Bashi's greenness. He suggests live betting Bashi after round one if he comes out hot.

The Guru picks Bashi, impressed by his wrestling and experience. He notes Bashi's undefeated record (13-0) and better competition compared to Rodriguez's loss to Julian Erosa. He thinks Bashi's standup is better than R. Rosas Jr.'s and predicts a 29-28 decision, with Rodriguez having a good third round but not enough. He warns that Bashi sometimes fails to capitalize on takedowns and is open on the feet.

Zane picks Bashi despite acknowledging it's the wrong matchup for him. He believes Bashi's athletic upside, endless motor, and physicality will allow him to get early advantages and maintain them. Bashi is stronger and better put together than fighters like Raul Rosas, and he doesn't gas out like Dulgarian. Zane thinks Bashi's superior athleticism and cardio will be the difference, even if Rodriguez is more experienced.

Angelo picks Uroš Medić, citing his superior striking, speed, and power. He notes that Punahele Soriano's only path to victory is wrestling, but Medić's takedown defense is a concern. However, he believes Medić is the better striker and will land clean shots. He has Medić in a parlay with César Almeida, though he expresses some nervousness about the bet.

Big Brady sees a clear path for Soriano: take Medić down. He notes Medić's takedown defense and ground game are questionable, and Soriano looked dominant at welterweight against Baeza, landing 331 strikes. He worries Soriano might strike instead of wrestle, but believes if he uses his wrestling, he can win by TKO or decision. He picks Soriano to win, possibly by TKO via ground and pound.

Cody picks Medić, questioning Soriano's one good performance at 170 against a shot Miguel Baeza. He believes Medić's power and pace will cause Soriano to fatigue. He notes Medić's finishing ability and Soriano's history of gassing.

Connor picks Soriano because he believes Soriano's wrestling and physicality will be effective at welterweight. He notes that Soriano showed a grinding game against Miguel Baeza, and Medić is bad at dealing with sustained pressure and takedowns. While Soriano is uncreative and has shown little improvement, Connor thinks his size and strength advantage will allow him to control the fight. He acknowledges it's not a smart pick but sees a path.

Daniel notes Medić is more technically sound on the feet with better volume and diversity, while Soriano has big power in his left hand but shaky in-between and cardio concerns at welterweight. He thinks Medić will win the minutes, but Soriano could land a big shot or use wrestling. He picks Medić but is not interested in betting.

Lucrative James picks Uroš Medić to win, citing Medić's superior striking and cleaner kickboxing. He acknowledges Soriano's wrestling advantage and power, but believes Medić's skill on the feet will prevail over three rounds. He notes Soriano's cardio issues and that Medić has decent takedown defense. He also mentions that Soriano moved down from 185 and Medić moved up from 155, but still favors Medić's higher ceiling.

Soriano is a solid wrestler as shown in his welterweight debut against Miguel Baeza. He will get to his grappling, keep Medić on his back, and grind out a decision win as long as he doesn't get finished early.

Paul picks Soriano as a plus-money underdog, citing his impressive wrestling at 170 in his last fight. He expects fireworks and has bet under 1.5 rounds. He acknowledges Medić's danger but likes Soriano's path via takedowns.

The Guru picks Medić, noting his size as a big lightweight at welterweight, his KO of Tim Means, and his better technique and speed. He criticizes Soriano's recent performances, including losses to Dustin Stoltzfus and a poor showing against Miguel Baeza. He predicts an early TKO for Medić.

Zane picks Medić because he is a more dangerous finisher and expects Soriano to struggle to impose his game plan. Medić's movement and kicks could frustrate Soriano, who is hittable and plotting. Zane notes that Soriano's win over Baeza was more about Baeza's poor performance than Soriano's skill. Medić's ability to keep the fight in open space and avoid being clinched gives him the edge.

Angelo picks Felipe Bunes, emphasizing Jose Johnson's inability to defend takedowns. He notes that Bunes is a BJJ black belt with slick submissions and will likely get takedowns and control the fight. He mentions he bet on Bunes at +175 and the odds have since tightened. He expects Bunes to win via takedowns and submission threat.

Big Brady highlights Johnson's unreal power for a flyweight and his size (6'0"). He notes that opponents have success taking Johnson down, but Bunes may not have the cardio to wrestle for 15 minutes. If Bunes doesn't submit Johnson early, he will slow down, and Johnson's power and submission game carry late. Brady predicts Johnson wins by second-round knockout, though he mentions submission is also possible.

Cody picks Johnson but recommends live betting after the first round, expecting Bunes to gas. He notes Johnson's comfort off his back and Bunes's age and cardio issues. He believes Johnson will land meaningful shots in later rounds.

Daniel thinks Johnson's takedown defense and getup game are weak, and Bunes can have takedown success and possibly get a submission. He notes Johnson is tall for flyweight and has a range kickboxing game, but Bunes can surprise. He picks Bunes for the upset.

Johnson's length and reach (6' tall, 71-inch reach) will allow him to keep Bunes at distance, get into his striking groove, and pick him apart to win on the scorecards.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Johnson's takedown defense issues but Bunes's tendency to fade. He prefers to watch the live market rather than bet pre-fight. He sees Johnson's guard as crafty but not enough to scare Bunes.

The Guru picks Johnson, citing his height (6 feet) and reach (71.2 inches) at flyweight as a difficult puzzle. He notes Johnson's good scrambles and win over Jack Cartwright on the contender series. He dismisses Bunes as a poor prospect with losses and age (35). He acknowledges Johnson's losses to top competition but thinks he's talented enough to win.

Angelo picks Marco Tulio, stating that the fight is set up for him to win. He notes Tulio's diverse striking and solid grappling, while Ihor Potieria is a kickboxer with poor takedown defense. He believes Tulio's wrestling and power will be enough, though he dislikes the -500 odds on a UFC debut. He expects Tulio to win, possibly via takedowns and ground control.

Big Brady thinks Tulio is the better fighter overall, with more ways to win. He acknowledges Potieria has looked better than expected, even having moments against Bolat and Almeida, but still considers him bad. Brady notes Tulio can push Potieria against the cage, get takedowns, and is a better striker. He predicts Tulio wins by decision, though he thinks the line is too wide.

Cody picks Potieria as a big underdog, arguing the line is inflated on Tulio. He notes Potieria's power, experience against tough competition, and improvements at 185. He believes Tulio is not a proven prospect and Potieria has a puncher's chance.

Daniel highlights Tulio's confidence and ground game, noting he is nasty on the mat and trains at Shoot the Box. He thinks Potieria is better than his record shows but lacks confidence and is on a losing streak. He predicts Tulio will get the fight to the mat and finish quickly.

This should be a chaotic matchup favoring Tulio, but not enough to justify -500 odds. The host lacks confidence to back Potieria either, but expects chaos and Tulio to win, probably by knockout.

Paul also picks Potieria, calling it a 'dogger pass' fight. He notes Tulio's unimpressive Contender Series performances and Potieria's ability to grapple a little. He expects a competitive striking match where Potieria can land.

The Guru picks Tulio, calling him an underrated prospect with good standup and grappling. He notes Tulio's win over Yusri Belgar on the contender series and his momentum. He sympathizes with Potieria's tough career but thinks Tulio is the better fighter. He mentions Tulio trains at Shooter Box with Diego Lima and has a decent chin.

Angelo picks Jacobe Smith (Andreas Gustofson) but with very low confidence. He believes Smith is the better pure wrestler and that his wrestling will be the difference, as Preston Parsons is clueless if he can't get takedowns. However, he notes that Smith is a UFC debutant and a 2-to-1 favorite, which he considers a bad bet. He thinks Smith's jiu-jitsu is good enough to avoid submissions. He advises against betting on Smith.

Big Brady is very high on Jacobe Smith, calling him a top-three contender series prospect. He praises Smith's wrestling, devastating ground and pound, and power. He notes Parsons is hittable and has poor performances when he can't get takedowns, like against Oban Elliott. Brady predicts Smith will outwrestle Parsons and land a big shot, winning by second-round TKO.

Cody is confident in Smith, citing his elite wrestling pedigree and physicality. He notes Parsons's struggles against strong wrestlers like Oban Elliott. He expects Smith to dominate with takedowns and control.

Daniel is high on Smith's wrestling credentials (D1 from Oklahoma State) and KO power, but notes the -525 price and short notice are concerns. He thinks Smith's wrestling and power will be too much for Parsons, who is chinny and lost to Trevin Giles. He picks Smith but passes on betting due to lack of value.

Smith is making his UFC debut on very short notice but is a much better wrestler and grappler than Parsons. He will keep Parsons in bad positions and grind out a decision win.

Paul also picks Smith, calling him a real deal prospect. He notes Smith's violent Contender Series performance and All-American wrestling. He believes Smith will impose his will and move up the ranks quickly.

The Guru picks Smith, impressed by his contender series performance and offensive grappling. He thinks Smith's athleticism and relentlessness will out-hustle Parsons, who he considers not fast enough to lead. He notes Parsons has given trouble to fighters like Matthew Semelsberger and Trevin Giles but believes Smith's grappling will be the difference.

Angelo picks Ernesta Kareckaitė, citing her superior striking, footwork, and length. He notes that Nicolle Caliari's takedowns are mediocre, and while Ernesta's takedown defense is also mediocre, he expects the striking battle to favor Ernesta. He suggests that a plus 3.5 spread bet on Nicolle could be valuable if the odds are plus money, as he sees the fight going to a close decision. He does not expect a finish.

Big Brady disagrees with the odds, thinking this is a close fight. He acknowledges Kareckaitė's size, reach, cardio, and volume, but believes Caliari has the grappling advantage and can land bigger shots. He notes Caliari has improved her grappling since her contender series win and has power. He predicts Caliari wins by decision, using wrestling and grappling to win minutes.

Cody picks Kareckaitė but with low confidence, noting her high volume striking but poor takedown defense. He sees Caliari's submission threat but believes Kareckaitė's cardio and experience give her the edge. He advises passing on this fight.

Daniel notes Kareckaitė's length and volume will be a problem for the shorter Caliari, but Caliari could get takedowns and grind. He thinks Kareckaitė will pick her apart at range, but the -260 odds offer no value. He picks the favorite but calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

Kareckaitė's 6-inch height and 9-inch reach advantage will allow her to keep Caliari at the end of her punches, land more volume, and win on the scorecards. Both earned UFC contracts via the Contender Series last season.

Paul also picks Kareckaitė but is not confident. He notes her volume and physicality but acknowledges Caliari's submission game. He says he doesn't care for this fight and would rather pass.

The Guru picks Caliari, citing her Brazilian background, consistent finishes, and good submission skills. He notes Kareckaitė is a rangy kickboxer but thinks Caliari will get takedowns and a submission. He acknowledges Kareckaitė's youth (26) and win over Kari Judice but sides with Caliari's grappling.

Angelo picks Magomed Gadzhiyasulov, highlighting his well-rounded skills, solid cardio, and body work. He notes that Magomed's takedown defense is poor but believes his offensive takedowns and striking will be enough. He views the -205 odds as good value, as Magomed's takedown offense should overcome Bruno Lopes' forward pressure. He expects Magomed to get takedowns and control the fight.

Big Brady is not high on either fighter, calling the fight 'sucky' and 'boring'. He thinks Gadzhiyasulov is the more technical striker and may get takedowns, but he does not like him at -220. He notes that Gadzhiyasulov couldn't finish Jose Medina or Brenson Ribeiro, so he expects a decision. He also mentions Bruno Lopes is chinny and hittable, but Gadzhiyasulov lacks finishing ability. He suggests a prop of over 10 minutes fight time on PrizePicks.

Cody picks Lopes as an underdog, questioning Gadzhiyasulov's power and finishing ability. He notes Lopes's takedown defense and power, and believes he can land big shots as Gadzhiyasulov tires. He admits low confidence due to the Dagestani factor.

Daniel thinks Lopes is more well-rounded and experienced, with good Jiu-Jitsu and better competition. He questions Gadzhiyasulov's one-dimensional wrestling and lack of striking, but notes his toughness. He believes the odds should be closer and picks Lopes for the upset.

Lopes has good enough grappling to stay out of trouble against Gadzhiyasulov, who is overhyped after almost being finished by Brendson Ribeiro. Lopes can pick him apart on the feet and possibly find a finish or win on the scorecards.

Paul also picks Lopes, having found a plus-225 price earlier. He questions Gadzhiyasulov's takedown defense and believes Lopes's power and grappling could cause an upset. He is considering adding more to his bet.

The Guru picks Gadzhiyasulov, noting his undefeated record (9-0) and win over Brendson Ribeiro. He criticizes Lopes for getting KO'd by Ribeiro. He acknowledges Gadzhiyasulov hasn't looked amazing but thinks he's good enough to beat Lopes. He warns that there will be a time to pick against him but not against this opponent.

Angelo picks Fatima Kline but is highly critical of the -900 odds, calling them 'absurd' for a fighter with only seven professional fights and no UFC wins. He acknowledges Kline's grappling advantage but notes her lack of strength and recent loss where she was taken down. He suggests the better bet might be on Victoria Dudakova via the plus 3.5 round spread, as he believes Dudakova could win a round and cover. He expects the fight to go to decision.

Big Brady is very high on Fatima Kline, calling her the future. He criticizes Dudakova's cardio, striking, and grappling, noting she looked terrible against Sam Hughes and struggled against Jinu Fry. He highlights Kline's well-rounded skills, training with Erin Blanchfield, and her black belt in BJJ. Brady predicts Kline will wear down Dudakova and finish her by third-round submission, as Kline has stated she wants a finish in her strawweight debut.

Cody picks Kline but refuses to bet at -1000, calling the line absurd. He notes Kline's grappling and training with Blanchfield, but warns of Dudakova's physicality and potential for an upset. He advises passing or using Kline in deep parlays only.

Daniel thinks Kline should be favored but questions the -1000 price, calling it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Dudakova has had disappointing performances and a staph infection, but getting a Russian fighter at +625 is rare. He leans Kline but says he'll probably pass unless he sees something at weigh-ins.

Kline returns to her natural strawweight class after being outmuscled at a higher weight on short notice. She should showcase her skills and grind out Dudakova, possibly finding a submission later in the fight.

Paul picks Kline but also refuses to bet at -1000. He notes her well-rounded skills and natural weight class, but warns of women's MMA volatility. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins and possibly taking a small flyer on Dudakova.

The Guru picks Kline despite being surprised by the wide odds (9-1 favorite). He thinks it's a 50-50 fight leaning towards Kline but trusts the oddsmakers know something about Dudakova. He notes 48% of people are picking Dudakova but goes with Kline because of the betting line.

Angelo picks Nurullo Aliev, citing his dominant wrestling and effective jab that sets up takedowns. He notes that Aliev's style is reminiscent of Khabib, though without the same accomplishments. Angelo acknowledges that Aliev's opponent, Yanal Ashmoz (likely Joe Solecki), is well-rounded and has been a successful underdog pick in the past, but he believes Aliev's wrestling will be too much. He expects a straightforward win via takedowns and control leading to a decision.

Big Brady sees this as one of the easiest fights on the card. He expects Aliev to get takedowns and control the fight on the ground, while Solecki is content to be on his back and throw up submission attempts. He notes that Solecki has a history of losing minutes and being taken down, as seen in the Dawson fight. Brady predicts Aliev wins by decision, as he is not a finisher but will dominate positionally.

Cody picks Aliev but with low confidence due to the two-year layoff and inflated line. He notes Solecki's submission threat and Aliev's low volume. He advises passing or using Aliev only in deep parlays, calling it a trap line.

Daniel thinks Aliev's grinding Russian style and takedowns will be too much for Solecki, who pulls guard and has cardio concerns on short notice. He notes Solecki's Jiu-Jitsu is a threat early but will fade. He believes the -600 price is justified and picks Aliev confidently.

Aliev's wrestling-heavy approach will keep him safe against Solecki's BJJ black belt, allowing him to grind out a decision win. He hasn't fought since February 2023 due to a leg injury, but his style should neutralize Solecki's grappling.

Paul picks Aliev but is not confident, citing the layoff and Solecki's grappling. He notes Solecki's one-dimensional style but potential to catch a submission. He prefers to pass on this fight.

The Guru picks Aliev, noting Solecki took the fight on short notice and hasn't been training for a fight (only a grappling match in November). He thinks Aliev is a lot better and will out-grapple Solecki or get a TKO. He suggests there might be value on an Aliev TKO.