UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3

Angelo picks Max Holloway, but with low confidence. He notes that Dustin is the better all-around fighter but may be pressured by his retirement fight and home crowd, leading him to brawl instead of using his full skillset. He expects Holloway's volume striking to win a decision. He will not bet on this fight.

Big Brady leans Max Holloway, citing Holloway's improvement at lightweight and youth (33 vs 36). He worries about Holloway's chin after his first KO but believes Holloway's volume will be key. He notes Poirier's retirement and hometown advantage could sway a close decision, so he's not betting.

Connor believes Holloway has evolved into a more complete striker since their last fight, with improved footwork, counterpunching, and kicking game. He thinks Holloway was close to winning the second fight and that his cleaner combinations and pressure can overcome Poirier's power if he survives the turning points. He also notes Poirier's retirement talk as a potential factor that could affect his focus.

The host notes Poirier is up 2-0 in the series and believes his power punching approach will be more effective than Holloway's volume, referencing the second matchup where Poirier won 4-1 on scorecards. He expects Poirier to repeat that and win on the scorecards.

The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway over Dustin Poirier, predicting a decision win. He cites Holloway's superior striking and the fact that Poirier is retiring after this fight, which may affect his intensity. The Guru also notes that Holloway nearly won their second fight and is now properly prepared at lightweight, unlike the short-notice rematch. He believes Poirier's striking has regressed due to focusing on takedown defense, while Holloway's striking remains sharp. He expects a competitive fight but sees Holloway as a step ahead.

Zane agrees with Connor that Holloway can win, citing Holloway's improved back-foot game and the fact that he was close in the second fight. He also points to Poirier's age and potential emotional state in his retirement fight as reasons Holloway might finally get the win. However, he expresses nervousness about picking against the trend of the first two fights.

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, reasoning that in a striking match, Kopylov is the better striker. He doubts Paulo Costa will use his grappling, as he has been a brawler recently. He notes Costa's durability and output but believes Kopylov's technical striking will win.

Big Brady picks Roman Kopylov, criticizing Paulo Costa's lack of effort and decline since 2019. He notes Kopylov has improved his striking and wrestling, while Costa has regressed. He predicts Kopylov wins by late finish or decision.

Connor picks Kopylov because he believes Costa's current style is vulnerable to a dynamic kicking game. He notes that Costa has not been the same pressure fighter since the Adesanya fight and struggles against opponents who use long-range weapons. Kopylov's ability to pressure and chain combinations on the front foot is seen as a nightmare for Costa's hesitant approach.

The host acknowledges Costa is a wild card, making it difficult to determine whether to bet on Kopylov. He expects Kopylov to win, utilizing grappling and striking to win on the scorecards, but the hesitation is due to Costa's unpredictability.

The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov over Paulo Costa, predicting a decision win. He criticizes Costa's inactivity and lack of finishing ability, noting that he rarely punches opponents in the face anymore. Kopylov is described as busier and more active, with a reach advantage. The Guru believes Kopylov will pepper Costa with strikes and possibly land head kicks, while Costa's full-force but ineffective style will not be enough. He also mentions a prop bet that Costa will land less than 63.5 significant strikes.

Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Kopylov's dynamic all-levels kicking game at range and pace is the dagger for Costa's current style. He notes that Costa can still fight in bursts but doesn't trust him to show up the right way. He also mentions that Kopylov's pressure will force Costa to fight, which could lead to a fun but dangerous fight for Costa.

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, citing his speed, power, and accuracy at welterweight. He notes that Daniel Rodriguez is a pure boxer with no takedown threat, so Holland's takedown defense won't be tested. He expects Holland to run through Rodriguez.

Big Brady confidently picks Kevin Holland, noting Rodriguez's age (38), recent poor performances, and lack of wrestling. He believes Holland's height, reach, and power will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Rodriguez's prison fight experience as irrelevant.

Connor picks Holland because he is significantly faster than Rodriguez, who appears slower than ever. He notes that Holland always has a high work rate even in his worst performances, while Rodriguez's recent wins have come against equally old and beatable opponents. He sees this as a straightforward win for Holland.

The host sees this as a great stylistic matchup for Holland, expecting him to pick apart Rodriguez from distance and utilize his speed and stinging power to line up a knockout.

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez, predicting a decision win. He notes Holland's durability, reach advantage (7 inches), and better cardio, while Rodriguez is described as a scrapper with bad fight IQ. The Guru believes Holland will out-point Rodriguez over three rounds, possibly with a late finish, but expects it to go the distance. He also mentions a prop bet that the fight will last more than 10 minutes.

Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Holland is significantly faster and that Rodriguez's recent performances against older fighters show he is not a threat. He notes that Holland's worst performances still have high work rate, making him a safe pick.

Angelo picks Dan Ige, calling him a tough, durable journeyman who has fought top competition in the UFC. He is wary of the Patricio Pitbull trap after Pitbull's loss in his UFC debut. He thinks Ige's will and determination will carry him, but he won't bet on it.

Big Brady picks Dan Ige, citing Pitbull's age (38), declining durability, low volume, and lack of wrestling. He notes Ige has advantages in size, reach, volume, durability, and competition level. He predicts Ige wins by knockout, as Pitbull has been dropped recently.

Connor believes Pitbull's patient counterpunching style is a great matchup against Ige, who tends to rush in and make mistakes. He notes that Ige lacks a range game and often gets hit while coming forward, which plays into Pitbull's strengths. He sees Pitbull capitalizing on Ige's aggression with counters and takedowns.

The host believes Ige's volume output and ability to manage distance and pace will be key to shutting down Pitbull's power striking. He expects Ige to have a competitive first round but then chip away and win on the scorecards.

The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige over Patrício Pitbull, predicting a KO win. He criticizes Pitbull as a jack-of-all-trades but master of none, lacking dominant grappling or KO power. Ige is described as a short, stocky power puncher who can crack on the inside, similar to Michael Chandler who knocked out Pitbull. The Guru also references Pitbull's poor performance against Yair Rodriguez and believes Ige will put him away. He notes that Ige is a slight favorite and should be a bigger favorite.

Zane agrees, stating that Ige's style of rushing forward with flurries is exactly what Pitbull thrives against. He notes that Ige's lack of a range game and tendency to get hit while pressing forward will allow Pitbull to land counters and control the fight. He sees this as a much better matchup for Pitbull than the Yair Rodriguez fight.

Angelo picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing his striking, length, takedown defense, and toughness. He respects Michael Johnson's experience but believes father time has caught up. He notes Zellhuber's recent loss was competitive and he showed heart.

Big Brady confidently picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing advantages in age, height, reach, striking, and grappling. He notes Michael Johnson's age (39) and durability issues, having been finished 12 times. He predicts Zellhuber wins by second-round knockout.

Connor picks Zellhuber for his pace and youth, noting that Johnson has become choosy and less willing to throw combinations. He thinks Zellhuber will have opportunities to engage when Johnson decides to engage, and that Zellhuber's combination punching will be effective. However, he warns that the fight could be ugly if Johnson is too slow-paced.

The host is going with the Mexican fighter, expecting him to pick apart Johnson from distance and eventually line up a big knockout within two rounds. This shows confidence in Zellhuber's striking ability.

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber over Michael Johnson, predicting a decision win. He notes that Johnson is older and has struggled against lower-level opponents like Jamie Mullarkey, while Zellhuber is younger and has a reach and height advantage. The Guru also mentions that Zellhuber had a wake-up call in his last fight against Rivic, recovering well, and believes he will out-strike Johnson over three rounds. He expects a 29-28 or 30-27 scorecard.

Zane picks Zellhuber based on a predictive algorithm that notes Johnson hasn't beaten a good fighter in a long time. He points out that Johnson's recent wins are over shot fighters or inconsistent ones, while Zellhuber is younger and more dangerous. He also mentions the possibility of a stinker but still favors Zellhuber.

Angelo picks Vinicius Oliveira, calling him a dog who has beaten better competition than Kyler Phillips. He notes Oliveira's aggression, power, and takedown defense. He is surprised by the -180 line and considers it a gift, suggesting it could be parlayed.

Big Brady hesitantly picks Vinicius Oliveira due to Kyler Phillips' poor cardio. He believes Phillips wins the first round dominantly but fades, allowing Oliveira to take over in later rounds. He predicts a split decision for Oliveira, though he dislikes the pick.

The host sees this as a perfect matchup for Oliveira to showcase dominance, citing his performances against Ricky Simon and Said Nurmagomedov. He expects Oliveira to shut down Phillips's grappling and striking and produce a round three knockout.

The MMA Guru picks Vinicius Oliveira over Kyler Phillips, predicting a third-round finish. He criticizes Phillips' inability to adjust and his tendency to fade in later rounds, as seen against Rob Font and Howie PA. Oliveira is praised for his pace, durability, and pressure, having schooled Ricky Simon and broken Said Nurmagomedov. The Guru believes Oliveira will break Phillips down and finish him, comparing the matchup to Oliveira's win over Nurmagomedov.

Angelo picks Marvin Vettori despite being an underdog, citing his durability and consistent forward pressure. He questions Brendan Allen's mental consistency and identity, noting Allen's talent but tendency to underperform. He suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Vettori as a safer play.

Big Brady leans Marvin Vettori, disagreeing with the line that makes Allen a heavy favorite. He argues Vettori has advantages in striking volume, cardio, and durability, and that Allen's best wins are unimpressive. He expects a close split decision, possibly influenced by Allen's hometown.

The host thinks this is a great matchup for Vettori to keep the fight upright, bully Allen in the clinch and in pocket exchanges, and pull away on the scorecards. This indicates a clear path to victory.

The MMA Guru picks Brendan Allen over Marvin Vettori, predicting a 29-28 decision. He criticizes Vettori's lack of power and volume, noting that he landed only about 90 significant strikes in recent fights. Allen is described as more versatile with kicks and grappling, though he can be reckless. The Guru believes Allen will mix in takedowns and out-hustle Vettori, who is coming off a long layoff and personal issues. He also notes that Vettori cannot finish Allen and that Allen's chin is durable enough to handle Vettori's shots.

Angelo picks Francisco Prado despite being too small for welterweight, because he can exploit Veretennikov's wrestling holes. He notes Prado's power and durability, and loves the -140 odds, calling it a discount due to Prado's last loss. He plans to bet on Prado.

Big Brady picks Nikolay Veretennikov, questioning Francisco Prado's decision to move up to welterweight. He notes Veretennikov's reach, technical striking, and better volume, while Prado is undersized with poor wrestling. He predicts Veretennikov wins by decision, calling the line questionable.

The host cites Veretennikov's experience and strength of schedule advantage, and believes he can thwart Prado's power punching approach. He expects a full mixed martial arts performance and a win on the scorecards.

The MMA Guru picks Nikolay Veretennikov over Francisco Prado, arguing that Prado is not a welterweight and is too small for the division. He notes Prado's reach disadvantage (69" vs 74") and lack of power, while Veretennikov is well-rounded, taller, and rangier. The Guru believes Prado's game plan is predictable as a shorter fighter, and Veretennikov will win by decision or TKO.

Angelo picks Ateba Gautier, citing his speed, power, and combinations. He notes that Robert Valentin is a creative but hittable striker who doesn't wrestle early. He believes Gautier will be too much on the feet and finish early.

Big Brady picks Ateba Gautier, citing his dynamite power and physical strength. He notes Gautier knocked out durable Jose Medina and expects him to finish Robert Valentin in the first round. He believes Valentin will stand and trade, which favors Gautier.

The host notes Gautier is a physical specimen but still young at 23, and Valentin could make things difficult. He picks Gautier to land a big shot and put Valentin away, but warns not to get carried away with the minus 500 odds, indicating hesitation.

The MMA Guru picks Ateba Gautier over Robert Valentin, predicting a first or second-round TKO. He notes that Valentin is wild and often jumps into his strikes, lifting his chin, which Gautier can exploit. Gautier is described as a young prospect with potential, though he showed some problems in his Contender Series fight. The Guru acknowledges that Valentin is dangerous and has finishing potential, but believes Gautier will find the chin and finish him.

Angelo picks Islam Dulatov, calling him the much better striker with good takedown defense. He notes that Adam Fugitt is tough but too hittable. He acknowledges the year of busted prospects but still leans on Dulatov's skills.

Big Brady is high on Islam Dulatov, calling him the real deal with aggressive finishing ability. He notes Dulatov has 11 first-round wins in a row and believes Fugitt is hittable with a questionable chin. He predicts Dulatov wins by first-round knockout.

The host believes Dulatov is 'the truth' and expects him to make his UFC debut in emphatic fashion, finishing Fugitt within a round and a half. This indicates strong confidence in a dominant performance.

The MMA Guru picks Islam Dulatov over Adam Fugitt, predicting a second-round TKO. He notes that Fugitt is a survivalist who has made it to later rounds against tough opponents like Michael Morales, so the fight will likely go past the first round. Dulatov is making his UFC debut after a Contender Series win, and the Guru expects him to bulldoze Fugitt with ground and pound or clinch work. He also mentions a prop bet that the fight will last more than 4.5 minutes.

Angelo picks Jimmy Crute despite his long winless streak, because Marcin Prachnio has poor ground game and Crute is a good wrestler. He notes Crute's recent retirement and poor mindset, but believes the gap on the ground is enough for Crute to win. He is hesitant due to Crute's mental state.

Big Brady believes Jimmy Crute should dominate Marcin Prachnio, citing Crute's easier UFC fight to date. He notes Prachnio's poor cardio, no ground game, and chin issues. He predicts Crute wins by first-round submission, though he acknowledges Crute's past bad fight IQ.

The host acknowledges Crute is flaky and inconsistent, and Prachnio is capable of pulling off the upset. However, he thinks Crute will utilize his aggressiveness, land a big shot, and follow up with a submission. The pick is hesitant due to Crute's inconsistency.

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio over Jimmy Crute, despite some hesitation. He criticizes Crute's footwork, saying he fights like he's stepping on Legos, and notes that Crute has problems with low kicks, as seen against Anthony Smith. Prachnio is described as a slick striker with good low kicks, and the Guru believes he will not get outmuscled on the ground. However, he acknowledges the possibility of Crute submitting him, but ultimately goes with Prachnio based on striking superiority.

Angelo picks Ryan Spann to win, noting his power, submissions, and wrestling. He compares Brzeski to Austin Lane as a finishable opponent. However, he expresses concern about Spann's heavyweight debut where he looked out of shape and not serious, making the -225 price a bit tricky.

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann but expresses concern about Spann's inconsistency and motivation. He notes Spann looked terrible at heavyweight and hasn't posted training content. However, he believes Brzeski is not UFC caliber and Spann should win by first-round knockout if he shows up.

The host thinks Spann will get his first heavyweight win but expects Brzeski to make it more difficult than the odds indicate. He predicts Spann finds the finish inside the distance, but the hesitation suggests some doubt about the ease of victory.

The MMA Guru picks Łukasz Brzeski over Ryan Spann, citing Spann's low fight IQ and poor performance against Anthony Smith. He notes that Brzeski has experience in the cage and went to a decision with Volkan Oezdemir, which is respectable. The Guru also mentions that Brzeski is likely taller than Spann despite the listed height difference. He cannot trust Spann after his last performance and believes Brzeski will win.

Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira to win, citing his power, grappling, and experience. He notes that Jackson McVey has had a chaotic lead-up with multiple fight cancellations and weight cuts, which will work against him. However, he warns against betting heavy on Ferreira due to cardio issues.

Big Brady expects Brunno Ferreira to knock out Jackson McVey in the first round, citing Ferreira's scary power and McVey's step up in competition. He feels bad for McVey but sees a mismatch.

The host notes that McVey is on short notice and facing the most difficult opponent he's ever come across. He believes Ferreira will crush him and finish him within the first round, indicating a high confidence in a first-round finish.

The MMA Guru picks Brunno Ferreira over Jackson McVey, calling it a mismatch. He notes that McVey is a debutant who was originally scheduled to fight someone else and has been in a depleted state due to weight cuts. Ferreira is described as a very good middleweight with dynamic striking and power, having knocked out Gregory Rodriguez in the first round. The Guru predicts a second-round TKO for Ferreira, as McVey's stand-up is hesitant and rushed, and he will likely get caught.

Angelo picks Carli Judice as the better striker who will do more damage and try to finish. He notes that Judice can be taken down but scrambles well, while Caliari is a busy grappler who can lose positions by being too aggressive. He also factors in the Louisiana commission, which may value takedowns more, but still favors Judice's striking.

Big Brady favors Carli Judice due to superior striking, higher volume, and better defense. He acknowledges Nicolle Caliari's grappling and black belt but doubts she can get takedowns or outstrike Judice. He predicts Judice cruises to a decision win if she stuffs takedowns.

The host expects Judice to manage distance, utilize volume and output, and pick apart Caliari from distance en route to a decision victory. This suggests a clear confidence in Judice's ability to control the fight and win on the scorecards.

The MMA Guru picks Carli Judice based on a common opponent comparison with Carrier Kate. He notes that Carrier Kate clearly beat Nicolle Caliari but was robbed by the judges, while Judice arguably beat Carrier Kate on the Contender Series. He also highlights Judice's height and reach advantages (5'7" vs 5'3", 68" vs 62" reach) and believes she will be better at dealing with Caliari's takedowns. He expects Judice to win by decision or TKO, citing her momentum from a headkick KO.