Raffael Cerqueira

0-4
Record
Age / DOB 36
(Mar 15, 1990)
Height 6' 3"
Weight 205 lbs.
Reach 76"
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages
1.56 Sig. Strikes / Min
43.0% Sig. Strike Acc.
5.05 Absorbed / Min
36.0% Strike Defense
0.0 TD Avg / 15 min
0.0% TD Accuracy
36.0% TD Defense
0.0 Sub. / Fight
Loss Methods (4)
KO/TKO 2
Submission 1
Decision 1

Fight History

Result / Opponent
Event & Date
Method/Round
Links
Comments
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 1 6 of 10 60% 11 of 16 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:24
Raffael Cerqueira 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 1 6 of 10 60% 11 of 16 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:24
Raffael Cerqueira 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 6
Raffael Cerqueira 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 6
Raffael Cerqueira 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raffael Cerqueira vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Yakhyaev (-1000); Cerqueira (+650)

Round 1
The under is circled on many betting sheets for this match, as prognosticators expect these two light heavyweight sluggers will bust one another up. The debuting Yakhyaev (7-0, 0-0 UFC) is the highest betting favorite of the card, with odds around -1000 (or higher) in his favor against the hapless Brazilian striker Cerqueira (11-3, 0-3 UFC). Referee Rich Mitchell dons his proverbial hard hat to protect himself from errant swings, and he steps back to allow the 205ers to clap hands.
Yakhyaev introduces himself with, of all things, a spinning wheel kick, and he proceeds to blast Cerqueira in the face with it through his guard. Cerqueira wobbles back, stung but not wrecked from the surprise kick, and Yakhyaev walks him down and busts him in the chops with an overhand left. He chases after “The Lion” and catches him with two more punches that set up a cruise missile of a head kick that sends Cerqueira crashing to his seat. Cerqueira is still with it, his eyes wide open as Yakhyaev pounces. Yakhyaev tries to finish the job with big punches, but Cerqueira works his way to his feet with the fence as his only ally in the building right now.
The Turkish fighter wraps up Cerqueira and dumps him to the ground, where he proceeds to snatch up a rear-naked choke without even bothering to get in any hooks. The choke is tight as a drum already, as Cerqueira offers little defense as he may still be dazed. Cerqueira tries to roll over to his side, but this allows Yakhyaev to slip a body triangle around his waist and complete the choke.
The Brazilian does not take more than a second or two to surrender, and just like that, Yakhyaev has successfully blown through his opponent in his promotional debut. It took a little more than 30 seconds for “The Hunter” to slay “The Lion,” and Yakhyaev remains in the ranks of the unbeaten, having justified the massive betting line in his favor.

The Official Result
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev def. Raffael Cerqueira R1 0:33 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Angelo picks Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev over Raffael Cerqueira, calling him a solid prospect with great takedowns and power. Cerqueira is athletic but cannot defend takedowns, as seen in his loss to Julius Walker. Yakhyaev can knock him out or take him down repeatedly. The odds are wide, but Angelo is confident.

"Abdul's the pick. Minus 800."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Big Brady confidently picks Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev by first-round knockout, describing him as a legit prospect with tons of power and vicious grappling. He expects a quick finish, possibly within the first minute, and notes Cerqueira's poor UFC record.

first round KO
"Give me Yakhyaev first round KO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Cody picks Yakhyaev confidently, calling him an uber prospect. He notes Yakhyaev's well-rounded skills, power, and wrestling. Cody believes Yakhyaev will finish Cerqueira early, likely by knockout or submission. He suggests betting on a first-round finish.

Yakhyaev by submission +250, first round knockout prop
"I took a small shot on Yakyayv by sub and I'm hoping like club and sub plays into give me some justice."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Connor agrees, picking Yakhyaev. He notes that Yakhyaev is messy with his wrestling due to reckless aggression but is a good natural scrambler. He embraces chaos and doesn't shy away from resistance. He thinks Cerqueira should never have been signed and shouldn't have been kept after getting melted by Aslan.

"He's super raw. He is definitely in for a very hard lesson at some point in the near future, but not now."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Yakhyaev is a beast in light heavyweight and should run through Cerqueira quickly. Cerqueira has a glass chin and doesn't deserve a UFC spot. Expect a finish within two minutes.

under 1.5 rounds at -240; Yakhyaev round 1 prop
"I expect Yaky to get this done within 2 minutes. Uh the under one and a half is at minus 240. I think that's a steal."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Paul picks Yakhyaev confidently, noting his impressive resume and skills. He believes Yakhyaev will knock out Cerqueira, who is 0-3 in the UFC. Paul suggests betting on a knockout or inside the distance.

Yakhyaev by knockout
"I would think Yakaya does the exact same thing. Gets a knockout over Saka at some point."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

The MMA Guru picks Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev over Raffael Cerqueira, dismissing Cerqueira's UFC performances as disastrous. He notes Cerqueira gets KO'd in the first round and covers up. He believes Yakhyaev, an undefeated prospect with reach, will finish Cerqueira by TKO in the first or second round.

finish in the first round
"I'm going to go with Abdul-Rakhman Yakubov. He looked good on the Contender Series and I'm going to say that he finishes Rafael Fiziev in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Zane picks Yakhyaev confidently, noting that Cerqueira is not good and has a paper-thin regional record. He says Cerqueira crushes cans but collapses against anyone who can fight, as shown by his loss to Ibo Aslan. Yakhyaev is undercooked but confident, aggressive, and has a wrestling game. He thinks Yakhyaev will roll through Cerqueira.

Odds: Yakhyaev opened -600, now -1800; Cerqueira opened +450, now +900. Zane comments that the line is way too wide but Cerqueira couldn't handle Julius Walker.
"I just got to pick him to kind of roll through. So care here."
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julius Walker 1 44 of 62 70% 96 of 120 6 of 10 60% 0 0 11:46
Raffael Cerqueira 0 19 of 42 45% 30 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julius Walker 0 13 of 22 59% 17 of 27 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:31
Raffael Cerqueira 0 11 of 25 44% 12 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Julius Walker 0 13 of 18 72% 48 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:41
Raffael Cerqueira 0 1 of 4 25% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Julius Walker 1 18 of 22 81% 31 of 36 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:34
Raffael Cerqueira 0 7 of 13 53% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julius Walker 44 of 62 70% 26 of 43 9 of 10 9 of 9 18 of 26 4 of 9 22 of 27
Raffael Cerqueira 19 of 42 45% 15 of 37 0 of 1 4 of 4 19 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julius Walker 13 of 22 59% 5 of 14 3 of 3 5 of 5 8 of 13 2 of 5 3 of 4
Raffael Cerqueira 11 of 25 44% 7 of 21 0 of 0 4 of 4 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Julius Walker 13 of 18 72% 6 of 11 5 of 5 2 of 2 4 of 5 1 of 2 8 of 11
Raffael Cerqueira 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Julius Walker 18 of 22 81% 15 of 18 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 8 1 of 2 11 of 12
Raffael Cerqueira 7 of 13 53% 7 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raffael Cerqueira vs. Julius Walker
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Walker (-600); Cerqueira (+450)

Round 1
It’s time for a light heavyweight slugfest, with the promotion matching two fighters holding one combined decision victory. Referee Mike Beltran will need to be on his A-game when Walker (6-1, 0-1 UFC) and Cerqueira (11-2, 0-2 UFC) throw down, and the judges may be able to take this one off. Before they try to lop one another’s head from their shoulders, the fighters opt to clap hands together.
Walker walks down the Brazilian throwing hands, and Cerqueira knocks him back with a clean right hand. Cerqueira puts a one-two down the pipe, and the jab for Cerqueira is setting up power shots. Cerqueira swings hard with two hooks, prompting Walker to clinch up. They jockey for position up against the wall, with Walker offering a few knees to the gut when otherwise imposing his weight on his foe. Cerqueira breaks free and just misses a big left hand. Walker stalks his man down and has his guard split by a left, and Cerqueira wings a right hand over the top. The Brazilian spins with a kick that slams into Walker’s knee, and Walker looks at him and hurls a head kick that makes him fall over. Walker jumps back up to initiate a clinch, and he body locks and trips Cerqueira to the mat. Walker gets his hooks in, and Cerqueira tugs his toes on the fencing to try to improve his position. Beltran admonishes him.
Walker transitions to lean over with an arm-triangle choke, and Cerqueira turns the same time to get to his knees and then up to his feet. Walker grips hold of a leg and mat returns Cerqueira, who lands on the mat and fastens his grip on Walker’s left arm for a kimura sweep effort. The American yanks his limb out, and Cerqueira crawls towards the fence and gives his back up. Walker happily takes it, imposing his weight on top while unloading with power right hands. Walker considers a rear-naked choke before Cerqueira turns to his back, and Walker transitions into a two-on-one wrist lock. Cerqueira sits up and backs his way to the fencing while Walker clings to his left arm, and Walker lets it go so he can sit up high and smack Cerqueira in the face with short right hands. As Cerqueira tries to stand, Walker counters with an anaconda choke that he uses to keep Cerqueira stuck. Cerqueira responds with a double-leg entry, and Walker considers a guillotine choke but settles for wrenching Cerqueira to the floor. Seconds after they hit the ground, the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Walker
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Walker
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Walker

Round 2
The 205ers touch ‘em up, and two leg kicks come fast from Walker. The second knocks Cerqueira clean over, timed when Cerqueira was throwing. Walker leaps into top control, where he drives down ground-and-pound before considering an arm-triangle again. Walker bails on the sub so he can do work to the body and head in the closed guard. The moment Cerqueira opens his guard, Walker steps into half guard. Whether due to a head clash or some surprisingly effective offense off his back, Cerqueira appears to have cut Walker, who leaks on his chest. Cerqueira backs himself to the fence to stand, and Walker drags him back down. Although Cerqueira sits up again, Walker mat returns him once more, this time briefly lacing his legs beneath his opponent’s.
Cerqueira muscles his way back to a knee, and Walker has no interest in letting him as he rips knees to the chest while Cerqueira is on his seat. Cerqueira bursts back up, and Walker continues to knee him from up close. Cerqueira breaks free and lets his hands go, and Walker greets him with a heavy leg kick and three fierce punches. With Cerqueira shaken up by the third swing, Walker tackles him to the floor and lands in half guard. Walker looks for a guard pass, and he grips hold of the arm of Cerqueira again with 15 seconds to spare. Walker, his right eyebrow shredded open, tugs on the arm until the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Walker
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Walker
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Walker

Round 3
There is a glove touch to commence the final frame, and they both get right to striking. Walker lands, and Cerqueira counters him and rocks him. Walker shoots desperately, and Cerqueira stands him up and tags him with three more punches. Walker is in big trouble, and he goes for a double again and is shoved to his back. Cerqueira allows him to stand back up, and he gets kneed in the groin and unloads huge punches. Walker summons every bit of energy remaining, opening up with two crushing punches that knock Cerqueira down to the ground. Walker celebrates this and lowers himself in the guard to smother him and get some wind back, but Cerqueira is not having it and forces his way to his feet. Cerqueira lobs the most telegraphed haymaker in history, and somehow it drills “Juice Box” in the jaw and puts him on ice skates. Walker wobbles back, and he shoots for a double in hopes of slowing things down. Cerqueira stuffs him and thinks about a guillotine choke, but he stands up instead. Walker strides forward, with a head of steam again, and he drills Cerqueira in the jaw with his fists. Chaining a takedown behind it, Walker is given a gift as Cerqueira jumps guard for a guillotine choke.
This is the best thing Walker could ask for, as he slowly but effectively beats Cerqueira up from on top. An arm-triangle choke is briefly in play, but Walker lets it go so he can stay on top and keep Cerqueira from hitting him back. Beltran asks for more activity, and Walker transforms into a wet blanket by smothering Cerqueira and keeping him stuck on the floor. Both men totally gassed, Cerqueira is still resorting to explosive escapes that somehow succeed. Cerqueira is dragged to a knee shortly after getting up, and Walker imposes every one of his 206-plus pounds on his opponent from behind. Cerqueira tries to hit a reversal, but he does not have enough reserves to pull it off. Walker remains sitting on top of his foe, working on him with punches until he hops over into mount with 15 seconds to spare. Walker wraps a rear-naked choke grip around the jaw, but Cerqueira turns to his back and lays down to end the one-sided match.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Walker (30-27 Walker)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Walker (30-27 Walker)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Walker (30-27 Walker)

The Official Result
Julius Walker def. Raffael Cerqueira via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Julius Walker

Angelo picks Julius Walker but strongly advises against betting on him at -600. He notes Walker is winless in the UFC and lost to a 40-year-old, while Cerqueira has more KO wins than Walker has fights. Angelo thinks Walker will win due to raw athleticism but the risk-reward is terrible. He separates picks from bets.

Odds comment: -600 is terrible value, not worth betting.
"I'm going to pick the dude. I think he wins. But as I have said many, many, many times, picks and bets are not the same thing."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Julius Walker

Big Brady is confident in Julius Walker, describing Cerqueira as not a real fighter based on limited footage showing him getting knocked out and fighting in a mall food court. He believes Walker's pressure will break Cerqueira quickly, as Cerqueira doesn't like to get hit. Brady predicts a first-round knockout for Walker.

first round knockout
"I like Walker here. I'm going to take Walker to win by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Julius Walker

Connor picks Walker because he has durability and will eventually land something on Cerqueira, who overreacts on defense and gets badly hurt when clipped. He notes Walker sat down and swung back against Menefield, and Cerqueira can't take that kind of power.

"Walker just because he's got the durability that sooner or later. He's gonna land something on sakura."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julius Walker

The host is critical of Cerqueira's ability to take shots, citing his previous fight. He believes Walker's athleticism, speed, and power will land big shots and get Cerqueira out of there in the first round.

round 1
"I think Walker utilizes his athleticism, speed, and power, and he'll land some big shots to eventually get Caka out of there in the first round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Julius Walker

The MMA Guru picks Julius Walker, criticizing Cerqueira's tendency to freeze under pressure. He notes Walker's competitive loss to Alonzo Menifield and believes Walker is underrated. He expects Walker to be aggressive early and finish Cerqueira, though he's unsure of the round.

Bet on Julius Walker fight time under 4.75 minutes as part of a parlay
"I've got to go with Julius Walker over Raphael Carera."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Raffael Cerqueira

Zane picks Cerqueira because he is sharp and quick enough to nail Walker at will on the feet, and Walker is so undercooked that Cerqueira's durability might hold up. However, he calls it a coin flip because Walker could land something given his durability.

"I think I'll take a swing on sakura for not being incredibly easy to out grapple enough for Julius Walker to beat him and being sharp and quick enough that he can nail Julius Walker at will on the feet."
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Modestas Bukauskas 1 16 of 41 39% 16 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Raffael Cerqueira 0 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Modestas Bukauskas 1 16 of 41 39% 16 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Raffael Cerqueira 0 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Modestas Bukauskas 16 of 41 39% 11 of 36 3 of 3 2 of 2 16 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 1
Raffael Cerqueira 9 of 22 40% 4 of 16 0 of 1 5 of 5 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Modestas Bukauskas 16 of 41 39% 11 of 36 3 of 3 2 of 2 16 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 1
Raffael Cerqueira 9 of 22 40% 4 of 16 0 of 1 5 of 5 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Raffael Cerqueira

Round 1
The UFC treks to Seattle for the first time since 2013, when flyweight king Demetrious Johnson put his belt on the line against John Moraga. The sport never stops moving, and none of the 24 fighters on the lineup of that event will be competing tonight at UFC Fight Night 252. The matchmakers put together a show that even with a ton of injuries and changeups, it has the potential to be hot fire, just like Dylan. A pair of light heavyweight sluggers grace the cage first, and with 22 finishes across their 27 combined wins, referee Jeff Hoiby is already hyper-focused on what’s about to happen next. With a fresh look at the division after leaving the company for a pair of fights, Bukauskas (16-6, 4-4 UFC) has fared better his second time around. On the other hand, Cerqueira (11-1, 0-1 UFC) introduced himself to the masses in October and had his block knocked off by a man in Ibo Aslan who will be competing later. It’s likely knock out or be knocked out, but before they try for that, the fighters bump fists. Bukauskas introduces himself with an axe kick of all strikes, and the Brazilian is well away from him as he watches it go wide. Bukauskas walks his man down and busts him in the chops with a right hand and a left, and Cerqueira bounces off the cage wall and sets up a body kick. Bukauskas reaches with a long right hand, and he paws out with a front kick and a low kick. Cerqueira strikes back at the lead leg, but he leaves himself over for an overhand right that skims the forward bow. Bukauskas turns his hips into a low kick, and this time it is him who is wide-open for a one-two down the pipe. Bukauskas targets the pectoral with a right hand, only to get his chin checked with another clean one-two. Cerqueira loads up on a power punch and gets the attention of “The Baltic Gladiator,” but he also gets tagged on the way out. Bukauskas strides forward, fired up and ready to go, and he unleashes a flurry of fists that crash into the chin of “The Lion.” Cerqueira’s eyes go wide as he is surprised he got clipped, and he backs towards the wall in hopes of getting his balance.
This is the worst thing he can do, as he leans back and has his chin straight up in the air. Bukauskas does not let his man off the hook, blasting him in the face with powerful punches that shake the Brazilian up and separate him from his senses. Cerqueira crumbles to the floor, lights on but no one is home, and Hoiby rushes in to stop the fight.
The victorious Lithuanian walks off triumphantly and hits a picture-perfect back flip to further wow the masses. That is one heck of a way to start the night, as the crowd goes wild.
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The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Raffael Cerqueira R1 2:12 via KO (Punches)
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Angelo picks Bukauskas but is hesitant because he sees Cerqueira as dangerous and unproven. He notes Bukauskas has been knocked out four times and had trouble with Marcin Prachnio, while Cerqueira has 10 stoppages in 11 wins but was knocked out in his UFC debut. He says there's no world where he bets on Bukauskas at -350 and will leave this fight alone.

"I'm going to pick Bukauskas here because Raphael's a bit unproven... but there's not a world where I'm betting on Bukauskas at minus 350."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Raffael Cerqueira

Big Brady picks Raffael Cerqueira despite being a complete unknown with only two fights available to watch. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas is low-volume, lacks power, and has never looked like a -310 favorite against anyone. He believes Cerqueira has a significant advantage on the ground as a BJJ black belt training with Guto Almeida, and that Bukauskas's technical striking advantage is negated by his low output. He calls this a '100% gambler fight' and picks Cerqueira by knockout, though he admits the fight is awful.

by knockout
"I'm actually going to pick sirera just due to the fact that like listen on the feet modestus the better technical Striker but he just doesn't throw anything and if this fight hits the ground in theory sirera is going to have a significant Advantage so I'm going to take cirera uh to win this fight I'm going to take him to win by knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The host believes the line is too wide but expects Bukauskas's striking style to shut down Cerqueira's BJJ and Muay Thai. He predicts Bukauskas will chip away and win on the scorecards.

"I expect the Striking style of Bukowski to shut down the BJJ black belt and mu tie of Sera and I think we'll see bowkus chip away at him and win this fight on the scor cards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The Guru dismisses Raffael Cerqueira after his poor debut where he covered up and accepted defeat. He believes Bukauskas is more technical, matches in size and athleticism, and is a real fighter. He refuses to pick Cerqueira again, calling him a non-fighter who fought weak regional competition.

"I'll never pick him to win a fight he's about to get ruined out the UFC by modestus pus who is just as big an athletic as him but is a lot more technical"
Loss
TKO (punches) R1 0:51
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ibo Aslan 0 28 of 36 77% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raffael Cerqueira 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ibo Aslan 0 28 of 36 77% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raffael Cerqueira 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ibo Aslan 28 of 36 77% 26 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 1 28 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raffael Cerqueira 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ibo Aslan 28 of 36 77% 26 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 1 28 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raffael Cerqueira 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (12)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Angelo picks Ibo Aslan but is hesitant due to lack of tape on Cerqueira and Aslan's cardio issues. He notes Aslan is a heavy-handed striker with power but has holes in his game and cardio problems. Cerqueira is patient and athletic but not aggressive, and it's unknown how he handles getting hit. Angelo will likely avoid betting on this fight.

Will probably avoid betting on this fight.
"I'm going to pick EO Aslan here because seemingly bigger not bigger but faster stronger more athletic more dangerous but again there's not enough tape on hael to really put a flag in the ground."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raffael Cerqueira

Big Brady picks Cerqueira due to the unknowns and his potential paths to win. He notes that Cerqueira is a black belt in BJJ and could submit Aslan if he gets the fight to the mat. However, he acknowledges there is little tape on Cerqueira and that both fighters are front-loaded. He predicts a first-round submission for Cerqueira.

first round submission
"I'm going CER here I'll take him to win by first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Cody picks Ibo Aslan, believing his UFC experience and cardio will be key against a debuting opponent. He notes that Cerqueira is 34, started late, and has fought low-level competition. Cody thinks Aslan's power and ability to push the pace will lead to a finish in the second round. However, he is not highly confident.

"I'll take the guy with the UFC experience"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Raffael Cerqueira

Connor picks Cerqueira, noting that Aslan seems like a guy used to dominating with strength but crumbles when pushed back. Cerqueira is more of a fighter who enjoys the fight and has a better defensive feel, though it's hard to have a strong feeling either way.

"Yeah, I'll take cicada too. I it's hard to have a strong, really strong feeling either way. I mean, both of these guys are kind of your typical light heavyweight pickups."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Daniel Vreeland picks Aslan, noting that Cerqueira gets hit a lot and relies on home-run punches. He points out that Aslan showed durability in his last fight, taking punishment but not getting finished. Vreeland expects Aslan's volume to overwhelm Cerqueira, and thinks the line may move in Aslan's favor by fight time.

"I'm taking eoon uh and also I think you were supposed to finish this off but that's okay okay I'm taking Evo oslon"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Daniel Vreeland picks Ibo Aslan to win, but with low confidence due to limited tape on Cerqueira. He notes that Aslan has shown power that carries into later rounds and that Cerqueira's unorthodox striking and lack of high-level competition make him a risk. Vreeland would be more interested if Aslan returns to underdog odds.

"if they give me dog o on ebo I'm a consider it"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Jeff Fox also picks Aslan, though he initially considered Cerqueira. After film study, he saw Cerqueira getting hit a lot and relying on a spinning backfist knockout against a regional opponent. Fox doubts that will work against Aslan, who has proven durable. He also notes Cerqueira's body kicks but questions their effectiveness against higher-level competition.

"I was thinking about taking sequera I did some film study I saw who who he was fighting and I saw he was getting hit a lot as well so yeah"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Raffael Cerqueira

Cerqueira will get the fight to the ground and use his BJJ black belt to put Aslan in bad positions, opening up a submission opportunity. Look for Cerqueira to wrap up a submission within five minutes.

Cerqueira wins by submission in round 1
"look for Sara to wrap up a submission within five minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Paul picks Aslan, citing Cerqueira's lack of high-level competition and telegraphing of strikes. He believes Aslan's power and durability will be too much, and that Cerqueira's late start and age are disadvantages. Paul is not fully confident but leans Aslan.

"I think IBO asan probably Just Tires him out"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Raffael Cerqueira

The Guru picks Raffael Cerqueira, citing his dynamic finishing ability and size advantage. He notes that Ibo Aslan was hit a lot by Anton Turkalj, and believes Cerqueira's power and athleticism will put Aslan away. He acknowledges Cerqueira's unimpressive regional competition but is swayed by his vicious body kicks and spinning elbows. The Guru predicts Cerqueira will catch Aslan at some point and finish him.

"I'm going to go with Raffael Cerqueira catching him at some point in the fight and putting him away."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Raffael Cerqueira

Zane picks Cerqueira because he seems like an actual fighter who enjoys fighting, whereas Aslan is a strong guy who doesn't like fighting and panics when pushed back. Cerqueira has a better feel for navigating exchanges and is more willing to scrap, though neither is a clean technician.

"I think I'll pick cicada too. Um, he's, he's not really any cleaner, a technician than Ibo Aslan. ... But he's big and he kicks hard. And, uh, like I said, I think he likes to fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Ibo Aslan

Zane admitted he was wrong about this fight, having doubted Aslan due to his loss to Anton Turkalj. He credited those who said Aslan would crush Cerqueira, noting Cerqueira is clearly not ready for this level. However, Zane remains unsold on Aslan, describing him as a guy who took up MMA just to get chicks, but acknowledged that's a better base than Cerqueira's.

"i should eat a little crow here feel a little stupid a couple of people said very deliberately that aslan was he was gonna crush sakira"