UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway

Angelo picks Ilia Topuria as the final leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet, but admits he would be happy to lose the bet if Max wins. He praises Topuria's speed, power, and wrestling entries, and believes he is the next generation of fighter. He thinks Topuria will be too fast and diverse for Max, but acknowledges Max's legendary striking and durability.

Big Brady thinks this is a very close fight. He believes Topuria will have early success but that Holloway's durability, cardio, and pace will take over in the later rounds. He notes that Holloway has never been knocked out and has absorbed the most significant strikes in UFC history, so he cannot pick anyone to knock him out. He predicts a split decision win for Holloway.

Cody picks Max Holloway as a plus 200 underdog, citing Holloway's unparalleled volume and pace, which he believes will overwhelm Topuria in the later rounds. He notes that Topuria has been outlanded in most of his fights before landing a knockout, and that Holloway has never been knocked out. Cody also mentions that Topuria's cardio slowed in the fifth round against Josh Emmett, and that Holloway's takedown defense is elite. He sprinkles on Holloway by KO in rounds 4 and 5 at long odds.

Connor picks Topuria, citing his relentless pressure and power advantage. He notes that Max Holloway, while still capable of greatness, has shown signs of age and accumulated damage, and his recent win over Gaethje was more a reflection of Gaethje's poor performance. Connor believes Topuria's pressure and power will be too much for Holloway, especially if Holloway tries to fight on the back foot.

Daniel Vreeland picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's power edge, durability, and grappling upside. He notes that Max Holloway has taken a lot of damage over his career and that Topuria's upward trajectory and maturity in the octagon give him the advantage. Vreeland also mentions that Topuria's boxing defense is superior and that he has the ability to finish Holloway, possibly becoming the first to knock him out. He is not concerned about Holloway's late-round cardio narrative, pointing to Topuria's performance against Josh Emmett in round five.

Lucrative James picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's massive power advantage and grappling upside. He notes that Topuria can close distance, pressure Holloway against the cage, and land heavy shots, and also has submission threats. He acknowledges Holloway's elite chin and takedown defense but believes Topuria's speed and clinical punching will be too much. He predicts a KO or decision win for Topuria.

Holloway can take Topuria's best shot and then come back with a volume-heavy approach that Topuria cannot keep up with. Topuria had great cardio against Josh Emmett but will not have that luxury against Holloway, who gets stronger in deep waters. Holloway will turn up the pressure in championship rounds and get a TKO finish in the fourth or fifth round.

Paul also picks Max Holloway, emphasizing that the fight is closer to 50-50 than the odds suggest. He argues that Topuria's power is real but he gets outlanded in most fights before landing a kill shot, and that Holloway's durability and volume will be key. Paul points out that Topuria's wins over Volk and Emmett came against opponents with durability issues, and that Holloway's experience and pace will expose Topuria. He also mentions that Topuria's reluctance to fight Holloway initially suggests doubt.

The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win by decision, citing Topuria's superior boxing and power as the prototype to beat Max Holloway. He notes that Holloway struggles against shorter opponents, as seen in the Volk trilogy, and that Topuria's low kicks and ability to cut Holloway will be key. He also mentions Holloway's recent weight cut from lightweight and scar tissue as disadvantages. The Guru predicts Topuria will hurt Holloway early, open a cut, and survive a late rally to win a damage-based decision.

Zane picked Topuria going into the fight, citing his power and ability to press and stay on the front foot, while Holloway's willingness to work the back foot and counter would be too big a hill to climb. He noted that Holloway's height, length, and diversity of skills gave Topuria trouble early, but Topuria's huge power and deadly pocket countering were the equalizer. Zane emphasized that Holloway has never been a big power puncher and could not match Topuria's power, and that Holloway's style of taking one to give three eventually caught up to him.

Zane picks Topuria, agreeing with Connor that Topuria's pressure and power are key. He notes that Holloway's recent performances have been less assertive and that Topuria's ability to counter the jab and walk opponents down will be problematic for Holloway. Zane also mentions that Holloway's best chance is to pressure Topuria, but he's not sure Holloway will do that.

Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev as the second leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Chimaev's cardio issues and that Whittaker could survive early and take over late, but believes Chimaev's early pressure and wrestling will be too much. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense hasn't been tested against someone like Chimaev.

Big Brady picks Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He notes that Chimaev has power on the feet and is dangerous on the ground, and that Whittaker has shown vulnerability on the bottom against Dricus du Plessis. He acknowledges that if the fight reaches the third round, Whittaker becomes a live underdog, but he expects Chimaev to get takedowns and finish early. He calls it a great live bet spot for Whittaker if it goes past the first round and a half.

Cody picks Robert Whittaker as a plus 220 underdog, citing Chimaev's cardio issues and history of pulling out due to illness. He notes that Chimaev has been extended in fights against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, and that Whittaker's takedown defense and five-round experience will be crucial. Cody believes that if Whittaker survives the first two rounds, he will take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Chimaev's wrestling may not be as effective against a true middleweight.

Connor picks Whittaker despite a gut feeling that Chimaev will win. He notes that Chimaev's resume against top competition (Burns, Usman) shows he fades and lacks control, while Whittaker has excellent takedown defense and striking. Connor worries about Whittaker's tendency to get caught in big moments but believes if Whittaker survives the early onslaught, he can win the later rounds.

Daniel Vreeland picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, predicting a submission finish via rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke. He highlights Chimaev's dominant grappling performance against Kamaru Usman, noting that Usman's takedown defense was flawless until that fight. Vreeland also references Dricus du Plessis' judo throw on Whittaker as a sign that Whittaker's takedown defense may be vulnerable. He dismisses concerns about Chimaev slowing down, arguing that even in later rounds he can still dominate.

Lucrative James picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, likely inside the distance. He emphasizes Chimaev's wrestling dominance, noting that he has taken down everyone he's wanted to, including elite wrestler Kamaru Usman. He questions Whittaker's chin, pointing out that Whittaker has been hurt in many recent fights, and believes Chimaev can hurt him on the feet or take him down and finish with ground and pound or submission. He acknowledges Whittaker's takedown defense but thinks Chimaev's physicality and grappling are superior.

Whittaker will deal with Chimaev's early onslaught and then run away with the fight in the later rounds. He can get a decision victory or find big shots to put Chimaev away in the fourth or fifth round. Whittaker reestablishes himself among the top middleweights.

Paul picks Robert Whittaker, echoing Cody's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and durability. He highlights that Chimaev has only fought lower-level competition and struggled against Burns and Usman. Paul believes Whittaker's experience and ability to survive the early onslaught will lead to a victory in the later rounds. He also notes that Chimaev's frequent pullouts due to illness are a red flag.

The Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by TKO in the fourth round, arguing that Chimaev's hype exceeds his reality. He believes Whittaker's takedown defense and scrambling will survive Chimaev's early grappling, and that the five-round fight favors Whittaker's cardio. He notes Chimaev's lack of elite wins, his hand injury against Usman, and his tendency to fade. The Guru also mentions the humidity in Abu Dhabi and Chimaev's recent illness as factors. He predicts Chimaev will engage on the feet early, but Whittaker will take over as Chimaev gasses.

Zane picked Whittaker going in, but acknowledged he had to eat crow after Chimaev's dominant first-round submission. He explained that Whittaker when he loses often melts down and makes a mistake, and that getting blown out isn't shocking for a fighter of Chimaev's quality. Zane noted that Chimaev is an all-time great first-round fighter, but still has questions about his performance in later rounds, as he becomes aimless and uncomfortable striking for long periods.

Zane also picks Whittaker, echoing Connor's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and lack of control against top opponents. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense is elite and that Chimaev's striking is not as polished. Zane adds that Chimaev's recent health issues and lack of passion are red flags, making him lean toward Whittaker.

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev as the first leg of his 'villain parlay' with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Ankalaev is a good kickboxer with wrestling, but he dislikes him and hopes the parlay loses. He thinks Ankalaev should win because Rakić is coming off two losses and hasn't won since 2021, and Ankalaev has the technical striking and wrestling advantage.

Big Brady slightly favors Ankalaev but thinks the fight will be close and competitive. He expects the striking to be competitive and the fight to go to decision. He notes that Ankalaev has a path to victory via wrestling, as Rakić hasn't faced many wrestlers in the UFC. He calls the line 'kind of dumb' but picks Ankalaev to win a close decision.

Cody picks Magomed Ankalaev, stating he is the uncrowned champion of the division and should roll over Rakić. He notes that Rakić hasn't looked good since 2019, has been knocked out in his last two fights, and lacks durability and volume. Cody believes Ankalaev's wrestling and striking will be too much, and that he will be motivated to make a statement to earn a title shot.

Connor picks Rakić, mainly because he wants Ankalaev to suffer and because Rakić is a more powerful striker with better fundamentals. He notes that Ankalaev tends to fight at a slow pace and rely on his wrestling, but often doesn't use it. Connor believes Rakić's jab and counter-punching could give him an edge in a kickboxing match.

Daniel Vreeland picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, citing his superior hands and ability to capitalize on Rakić's tendency to exit the pocket with his chin up. He expects Rakić to have early leg kick success but believes Ankalaev will make adjustments and either win by knockout or a 29-28 decision. Vreeland notes that Ankalaev is on a 12-fight unbeaten streak and that Rakić has been underwhelming despite his physique.

Lucrative James picks Magomed Ankalaev to win but is hesitant due to Ankalaev's poor fight IQ and tendency to make fights close. He notes that Ankalaev is the better all-around fighter with grappling upside, but his low volume and lack of power could lead to a close decision. He sees value on Rakić as an underdog and expects a split decision type fight. He is not confident enough to bet on Ankalaev at -360 odds.

Ankalaev's overall game is too much for Rakić. Many expect a grapple-heavy approach, but Ankalaev may unleash his striking to catch Rakić off guard, leading to a knockout victory. This would help him overcome the 'boring' label and earn a title shot.

Paul picks Ankalaev, agreeing that he is the best in the division and that Rakić is not a top-five fighter. He points out that Rakić has been outworked and knocked out in his recent fights, and that Ankalaev's wrestling and striking will be decisive. Paul also mentions that Ankalaev needs to put his foot on the gas to impress the UFC.

The Guru picks Ankalaev by decision, despite acknowledging Rakić's technical skills. He believes Ankalaev's pressure and clinch work will wear on Rakić, and that Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to secure rounds. He notes that Rakić has struggled to finish opponents and that Ankalaev's boxing will become more effective as the fight goes on. The Guru also mentions that the odds are too wide in Ankalaev's favor, suggesting Rakić offers value as an underdog, but ultimately sticks with Ankalaev via 29-28 decision.

Zane did not make a pick for this fight. He criticized the matchup as boring, noting both fighters are consistent, risk-averse range strikers who favor high-percentage low-power strikes. He expressed disappointment that the UFC booked this fight knowing their styles, and predicted Ankalaev will likely get a title shot anyway due to lack of other options.

Zane picks Ankalaev, expecting a slow-paced kickboxing match where Ankalaev edges out a decision. He acknowledges Rakić's power and technique but thinks Ankalaev will control the tempo and win a close fight, as he has done before. Zane is not confident but sees Ankalaev as the likely winner.

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy confidently. He praises Murphy's striking, footwork, and power, and believes he is too clean a striker for Dan Ige. He thinks Murphy's ability to mix striking and wrestling will keep Ige guessing. He also notes both fighters are tough and expects the over 2.5 rounds to be solid.

Big Brady likes Murphy in this fight, believing he has more paths to win and is better everywhere. He praises Murphy's striking in his last fight against Edson Barboza and notes that Murphy can mix in takedowns, while Ige has shown he can be taken down and controlled. He predicts Murphy will win by decision, doing better work on the feet and mixing in occasional takedowns.

Cody picks Lerone Murphy, citing his well-rounded skills, reach advantage, and recent win over Edson Barboza. He notes that Ige is undersized, has poor takedown defense, and relies on power that may not translate against a longer, more technical striker. Cody believes Murphy's volume and precision will overwhelm Ige, and that Murphy can mix in takedowns if needed.

Connor picks Murphy, emphasizing that Ige struggles when forced to lead and lacks range tools. Murphy's jab and footwork can keep Ige at distance, and his size and reach advantage should allow him to control the fight. Connor notes that Ige is dangerous in the pocket but Murphy can avoid that by fighting at range.

Daniel Vreeland picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision, highlighting Murphy's volume striking and top-five potential. He notes that Murphy out-landed Edson Barboza with 220 significant strikes over five rounds and that Ige's toughness and power are his main advantages. Vreeland believes Murphy's skill set and minute-winning ability will carry him to a clear decision win.

Lucrative James picks Lerone Murphy to win, citing Murphy's superior technical striking, fight IQ, and grappling upside. He believes Murphy is the better all-around fighter and can win via striking or takedowns. He acknowledges Ige's power and experience but thinks Murphy's calculated approach will prevail. He expects Murphy to look good and possibly call for a title shot.

Murphy is the better overall fighter with slicker striking and more damaging offense on the feet. He can also grind Ige out in clinch positions and take him down. Ige's boxing will be muzzled by Murphy's superior athleticism. Murphy wins on the scorecards.

Paul picks Murphy, emphasizing his reach advantage and superior striking. He notes that Ige struggles against bigger fighters and has never landed over 88 significant strikes in a fight. Paul believes Murphy's length and technical boxing will keep Ige at range, and that Murphy's takedown defense has improved. He also mentions that Ige's wrestling is not a threat.

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy by decision, arguing that Murphy's technical, well-rounded style is a bad matchup for Dan Ige. He notes that Ige struggles against fighters who can mix in grappling and fight at range, and that Murphy's jab, low kicks, and clinch work will outpoint Ige. He compares Murphy to fighters like Calvin Kattar and Movsar Evloev who have beaten Ige with technical breakdowns. The Guru acknowledges Ige's power but believes Murphy's discipline will earn a 29-28 decision.

Zane expected Murphy to win but noted he took the hardest path, getting caught early by a huge counter due to overstepping. He credited Murphy's durability and conditioning for bouncing back and winning. Zane emphasized that Ige is a dangerous pocket fighter with a great chin, but Murphy minded the pocket and won scrambles to secure the win.

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Ige is a counter puncher who struggles when forced to lead. Murphy's jab and range management should neutralize Ige's offense. Zane points to Ige's losses to fighters who kept him at range and thinks Murphy can replicate that.

Angelo picks Sharabutdin Magomedov despite being disappointed in his lack of finishes. He believes Shara is the better striker and counter-striker, and Armen's forward pressure will play into Shara's hands. However, he also sees value in betting on Armen Petrosyan at plus money via a spread bet, as Shara has not been finishing fights and Armen could win rounds.

Big Brady picks the underdog Petrosyan, calling this the closest fight on the card. He thinks Petrosyan can hang on the feet and may mix in takedowns, which could be a key factor. He notes that Petrosyan has been taken down a lot but might have improved his wrestling, similar to Roman Kopylov. He believes at worst it's a 50/50 fight and doesn't understand the odds.

Cody picks Armen Petrosyan as a slight underdog, citing Magomedov's lack of grappling and takedown defense. He notes that Petrosyan has faced strong grapplers and survived, and that he has the striking volume and power to outwork Magomedov. Cody also mentions that Petrosyan may mix in takedowns of his own. However, he is not highly confident due to potential hometown cooking for Magomedov.

Connor picks Magomedov, noting his speed and volume, though he acknowledges his takedown defense is still a work in progress. He believes Petrosyan lacks the power to hurt Magomedov and that Magomedov's boxing improvements will be enough to win a striking battle. Connor is not fully confident but sees Magomedov as the likely winner.

Daniel Vreeland picks Sharabutdin Magomedov to win, citing his movement and elusiveness as key factors against the more flat-footed Petrosyan. He acknowledges Petrosyan's striking credentials but believes Magomedov's lateral movement and ability to stay on the move will frustrate Petrosyan. Vreeland also mentions the potential for favorable judging in Abu Dhabi for a fighter with a name ending in 'ov'.

Lucrative James does not make a clear pick for this fight. He sees value on Petrosyan but is not confident enough to bet. He notes that Magomedov has a unique kicking style that could trouble Petrosyan, but Petrosyan has grappling upside and may shoot takedowns. He plans to study more tape before deciding.

Petrosyan is the technically superior striker with a cleaner, straighter style that will counter Magomedov's orthodox approach. He may mix in some grappling but his fundamental striking and clinch work should lead to a decision win.

Paul picks Petrosyan, noting that Magomedov has no wrestling and that Petrosyan has good volume and kicks. He believes Petrosyan's experience against grapplers will help him, and that he can win the striking exchanges. Paul is not confident due to potential judging bias but leans Petrosyan.

The Guru picks Sharabutdin Magomedov by decision, believing Petrosyan's rangey, point-fighting style plays into Magomedov's strengths. He notes that Petrosyan doesn't mix in grappling and will engage in a striking match where Magomedov's volume and durability should win rounds. He criticizes Magomedov's finishing ability but thinks he will outwork Petrosyan. The Guru also mentions Petrosyan's short reach as a disadvantage.

Zane picked Magomedov, noting his elite speed and dedication to volume. He pointed out that Petrosyan is a low-power, slightly less volume kickboxer with okay but not good wrestling, which was a good matchup for Magomedov. Zane highlighted that Magomedov is getting better at MMA, improving his takedown defense, and that Petrosyan started well but got discouraged by the absurd speed and second-guessed himself.

Zane also picks Magomedov, citing his speed and volume. He notes that Petrosian is not a powerful striker and that Magomedov's improved takedown defense, while still imperfect, should be enough to avoid being controlled. Zane thinks Magomedov's pace will overwhelm Petrosian.

Angelo picks Ibo Aslan but is hesitant due to lack of tape on Cerqueira and Aslan's cardio issues. He notes Aslan is a heavy-handed striker with power but has holes in his game and cardio problems. Cerqueira is patient and athletic but not aggressive, and it's unknown how he handles getting hit. Angelo will likely avoid betting on this fight.

Big Brady picks Cerqueira due to the unknowns and his potential paths to win. He notes that Cerqueira is a black belt in BJJ and could submit Aslan if he gets the fight to the mat. However, he acknowledges there is little tape on Cerqueira and that both fighters are front-loaded. He predicts a first-round submission for Cerqueira.

Cody picks Ibo Aslan, believing his UFC experience and cardio will be key against a debuting opponent. He notes that Cerqueira is 34, started late, and has fought low-level competition. Cody thinks Aslan's power and ability to push the pace will lead to a finish in the second round. However, he is not highly confident.

Connor picks Cerqueira, noting that Aslan seems like a guy used to dominating with strength but crumbles when pushed back. Cerqueira is more of a fighter who enjoys the fight and has a better defensive feel, though it's hard to have a strong feeling either way.

Daniel Vreeland picks Aslan, noting that Cerqueira gets hit a lot and relies on home-run punches. He points out that Aslan showed durability in his last fight, taking punishment but not getting finished. Vreeland expects Aslan's volume to overwhelm Cerqueira, and thinks the line may move in Aslan's favor by fight time.

Daniel Vreeland picks Ibo Aslan to win, but with low confidence due to limited tape on Cerqueira. He notes that Aslan has shown power that carries into later rounds and that Cerqueira's unorthodox striking and lack of high-level competition make him a risk. Vreeland would be more interested if Aslan returns to underdog odds.

Jeff Fox also picks Aslan, though he initially considered Cerqueira. After film study, he saw Cerqueira getting hit a lot and relying on a spinning backfist knockout against a regional opponent. Fox doubts that will work against Aslan, who has proven durable. He also notes Cerqueira's body kicks but questions their effectiveness against higher-level competition.

Cerqueira will get the fight to the ground and use his BJJ black belt to put Aslan in bad positions, opening up a submission opportunity. Look for Cerqueira to wrap up a submission within five minutes.

Paul picks Aslan, citing Cerqueira's lack of high-level competition and telegraphing of strikes. He believes Aslan's power and durability will be too much, and that Cerqueira's late start and age are disadvantages. Paul is not fully confident but leans Aslan.

The Guru picks Raffael Cerqueira, citing his dynamic finishing ability and size advantage. He notes that Ibo Aslan was hit a lot by Anton Turkalj, and believes Cerqueira's power and athleticism will put Aslan away. He acknowledges Cerqueira's unimpressive regional competition but is swayed by his vicious body kicks and spinning elbows. The Guru predicts Cerqueira will catch Aslan at some point and finish him.

Zane admitted he was wrong about this fight, having doubted Aslan due to his loss to Anton Turkalj. He credited those who said Aslan would crush Cerqueira, noting Cerqueira is clearly not ready for this level. However, Zane remains unsold on Aslan, describing him as a guy who took up MMA just to get chicks, but acknowledged that's a better base than Cerqueira's.

Zane picks Cerqueira because he seems like an actual fighter who enjoys fighting, whereas Aslan is a strong guy who doesn't like fighting and panics when pushed back. Cerqueira has a better feel for navigating exchanges and is more willing to scrap, though neither is a clean technician.

Angelo picks Geoff Neal but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Neal is younger, has good takedown defense and hands, and should win if the fight stays standing. However, he acknowledges RDA could get takedowns and grind out a decision. He will leave this fight alone due to the risk.

Big Brady strongly favors Neal, calling it a bad matchup for RDA. He notes that RDA struggles at welterweight against bigger guys and that Neal has elite takedown defense (87%). He believes Neal is the much better striker with more power and that RDA won't be able to take him down. He predicts Neal wins by decision, stuffing takedowns and doing better work on the feet.

Cody leans toward Rafael dos Anjos as an underdog, noting that RDA's wrestling and cardio could neutralize Neal's striking. He points out that Neal has struggled against wrestlers like Neil Magny, and that RDA's takedown-heavy approach could frustrate Neal. However, Cody is hesitant because RDA is 40 and has lost to superior grapplers. He suggests a small play or pass.

Connor picks Neal, agreeing that RDA at welterweight is not the same bully. He notes that RDA's game relies on being a physical bully, which he can't do at welterweight, and that Neal is capable of putting together moments of offense that win rounds. Connor also mentions that RDA is almost 40 and has a lot of mileage.

Daniel Vreeland picks Neal, citing his size, youth, and recent competition against top welterweights. He notes that RDA's wrestling has dropped off significantly, giving up 19 takedowns in his last two fights. Vreeland believes Neal's speed and game plan will be too much for the aging RDA.

Daniel Vreeland picks Geoff Neal to win, citing significant advantages in size, speed, and youth. He notes that Neal has faced much larger opponents recently and that RDA is a smaller fighter who may struggle with Neal's reach and takedown defense. Vreeland acknowledges Neal's inconsistency but believes this is a favorable matchup.

Jeff Fox also picks Neal, emphasizing RDA's declining wrestling. He notes that Neal has sneaky good wrestling and that RDA's takedown defense has worsened. Fox expects Neal to be faster on the feet and implement a better game plan.

Welterweight is not the best weight class for dos Anjos, and Neal should stop his takedowns and utilize his striking advantage. It wouldn't surprise me if Neal knocks dos Anjos out, but I lean with Neal winning on the scorecards.

Paul picks Geoff Neal, believing his reach and boxing will keep the fight standing. He notes that RDA's wrestling has not been as effective at welterweight against bigger opponents. Paul thinks Neal can stuff takedowns and use his length to outpoint RDA. He is not highly confident but leans Neal.

The Guru picks Geoff Neal by TKO in the second round, arguing that Rafael dos Anjos at 39 is outmatched physically. He notes Neal's size, power, and takedown defense (citing the Belal Muhammad fight) will be too much for RDA. He believes RDA's only path is to brawl in the pocket, which favors Neal. The Guru predicts a vicious finish, possibly ending RDA's career.

Zane clearly favored Neal, describing the fight as a 'sad days fight' for RDA. He noted that RDA's game of physical bullying and pressure doesn't work at welterweight because guys are too big and hit too hard. Zane pointed out that RDA got crushed by the first shot and blew out his knee, calling it an old man way to lose. He praised Neal's performance but remains skeptical about Neal's title prospects.

Zane picks Neal because RDA at welterweight is not the same relentless pressure fighter he was at lightweight; he's more reluctant to apply pressure and gets hit harder. Neal is a puncher who can keep his output up and win rounds, even if he gets stalled for one. Zane notes that RDA's wrestling is deteriorating and he's almost 40.

Angelo picks Myktybek Orolbai in a close fight. He notes Orolbai has better cardio, can close the gap and get takedowns, and has a good chin. He thinks Rębecki's only hope is a knockout, but Orolbai is durable. He acknowledges Rębecki is good and has been reliable in the past, but leans toward Orolbai's pressure and grappling.

Big Brady picks Orolbai, expecting a chaotic scramble-fest. He notes that Rębecki slows down as fights go on, as seen against Fiori and Carlos Diego Ferreira. He believes Orolbai's pace will be too much for Rębecki and that Orolbai will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts a decision win, possibly with a late finish.

Cody picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his massive size and reach advantage over Rębecki. He notes that Rębecki gassed out in his last fight and has no plan B when his wrestling fails. Orolbai's size, power, and ability to lean on opponents will wear down Rębecki. Cody believes Orolbai will win by decision or late finish.

Connor picks Orolbai, agreeing that he is more determined and a better round winner. He notes that Rębecki is a better puncher but more amorphous in his process, while Orolbai demands control and will not let Rębecki off the hook. Connor sees Rębecki winning the first round but losing the last two due to Orolbai's pressure.

Daniel Vreeland picks Orolbai, noting that Rębecki gassed out in his last fight after spamming overhands. He argues that Rębecki's wrestling won't work against Orolbai, who is a better wrestler and scrambler. Vreeland expects Orolbai to wear Rębecki down and finish him.

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Rębecki to win, but primarily because he sees value on the underdog at the current line. He believes the fight is closer than the odds suggest and that Rębecki's experience and pace could be decisive. Vreeland notes that Orolbai has shown vulnerability when things go south, as seen in the Brener fight.

Jeff Fox agrees with Vreeland, picking Orolbai. He mentions that Orolbai has been impressive since joining the UFC and that he took him in his debut on short notice. Fox trusts Orolbai's skills and expects him to win.

Orolbai has the cardio and scrambling advantage, allowing him to avoid early danger and grind out a win. He could get a third-round finish or win on the scorecards. This is a grapple-heavy matchup.

Paul picks Orolbai, agreeing that Rębecki was exposed in his last fight and that Orolbai's size and strength will be too much. He notes that Orolbai is a mountain of a man at 155 and that Rębecki's cardio issues will be exploited. Paul is confident Orolbai will win.

The Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his relentless pace and ability to dig deep. He notes that Orolbai pushed through adversity against Uros Medic and has shown good cardio. He believes Rębecki is good but may fade in the later rounds, while Orolbai's pressure and takedown attempts will break him. The Guru also mentions the humid Abu Dhabi environment favoring the tougher fighter.

Zane picked Orolbai but was worried he would hit a wall due to not being a physical force and having poor striking. He noted that Orolbai gets a lot done on heart and determination, but Rębecki crushed him in round one. Zane credited Orolbai for coming back and winning the second round, but ultimately scored the third for Rębecki because Orolbai was nearly dead earlier in the round. He called it a well-earned win for Rębecki.

Zane picks Orolbai because he is pot-committed to pressing forward and forcing his wrestling, and he is incredibly focused on making his fight happen. Even if Rębecki has early success, Orolbai's relentless pressure will gas him out and take over in later rounds. Zane notes that Orolbai is a round winner who stays calm and confident.

Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira with low confidence. He questions whether Abusupiyan Magomedov is good or not, noting his weak chin and poor performances. He thinks Ferreira's only path is an early finish, but with new gloves, finishes are less reliable. He will watch the line movement for better value on Ferreira as the underdog.

Big Brady picks Magomedov, citing his size, reach advantage, and wrestling. He is concerned about Ferreira's cardio, noting he looked like he was slowing down in the first round against Dustin Stoltzfus. He believes Magomedov can mix in takedowns and finish Ferreira in the second round by submission.

Cody picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, believing his wrestling and length will be key. He notes that Ferreira has poor takedown defense and that Magomedov can neutralize his power by taking him down. Cody is not highly confident due to Magomedov's cardio issues but thinks he can grind out a win.

Connor picks Magomedov, noting that Ferreira is much smaller and his game is shallow. He compares Ferreira to a portion of Gilbert Burns' striking without the other tools. Magomedov's size and reach will allow him to control the fight, and Ferreira is not suited for fighting off his back.

Daniel Vreeland picks Magomedov, arguing that he is more technical on the feet and has a strong wrestling game. He notes that Magomedov's losses are to top middleweights like Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland, and that Ferreira's only path is a KO. Vreeland expects Magomedov to take Ferreira down repeatedly and possibly submit him.

Daniel Vreeland picks Brunno Ferreira to win by first-round knockout, citing Ferreira's devastating power and Magomedov's history of being knocked out. He acknowledges that if the fight goes to decision, Magomedov likely wins, but believes Ferreira's early finishing upside is worth the pick. Vreeland is not confident and notes the risk of Ferreira fading if he doesn't get the finish.

Jeff Fox is taking Ferreira, swayed by his recent win over Warley Alves. He believes Ferreira can land a knockout if he can keep the fight standing, though he acknowledges Magomedov's wrestling threat. Fox's pick is less confident and seems to be a contrarian choice.

Magomedov has the overall advantage with his ability to mix in grappling and his reach and length. He should counter Ferreira's blitzing approach and eventually put him away by knockout, similar to what Nurlan Ruziboev did to Toofan.

Paul picks Magomedov, citing his superior wrestling and cleaner striking. He notes that Ferreira is undersized for middleweight and has been taken down easily. Paul believes Magomedov can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win by decision or late finish. He is not highly confident.

The Guru leans toward Brunno Ferreira, trusting his doggedness and finishing instincts in a firefight. He notes that Abusupiyan Magomedov may not have the same grit and could fade. He acknowledges both are capable of finishing each other but believes Ferreira will push when the going gets tough. The Guru also comments that Magomedov is 'too westernized' and 'soy'.

Zane picked Magomedov, noting that Ferreira has great power but the rest of his game doesn't exist. He described Magomedov's game as an inch deep and a mile wide, able to do enough to stay in a fight if his opponent can't take over in any one area. Zane pointed out that Ferreira lacks consistency and a plan, so Magomedov was able to climb back and get the win.

Zane picks Magomedov because of his significant size and reach advantage over Ferreira. He notes that Ferreira's game is shallow and he is a short, stocky power puncher with no other tools to control a fight. Magomedov can use his reach to land one-twos and takedowns, and Ferreira's only chance is an early knockout, but Magomedov has speed and size.

Angelo picks Kennedy Nzechukwu but is very hesitant. He notes Kennedy is taller, longer, and had a full camp, but warns that Kennedy 'kind of sucks' and was a massive favorite who lost to an older opponent in his last fight. He advises staying far away from betting on this fight due to the risk.

Big Brady picks Nzechukwu, noting his significant size advantage (6'5" vs 5'9" on paper, but Barnett is likely shorter). He believes Kennedy has many ways to win: knockout, submission, or decision. He acknowledges Kennedy can be inconsistent but cannot pick Barnett. He predicts a second-round submission.

Cody picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing his massive reach and height advantage. He notes that Barnett is old, overweight, and has low volume. Cody believes Nzechukwu's length and striking will keep Barnett at range, and that he will win by knockout in the second round. However, he warns that heavyweight fights are unpredictable.

Connor picks Nzechukwu, agreeing that Barnett is a total mess who can't consistently win rounds. He notes that Nzechukwu has the size to dominate but lacks confidence, but against Barnett, he should be able to use his reach and size to win. Connor is not confident in Nzechukwu long-term but sees this as a favorable matchup.

Daniel Vreeland is taking the huge underdog Chris Barnett. He argues that Nzechukwu has awful cardio, no motivation to come in shape now that he doesn't have to cut weight, and gets knocked out. Barnett is a heavy puncher who has won two of his last three by knockout, and Vreeland sees value at +500.

Daniel Vreeland picks Kennedy Nzechukwu to win, citing massive advantages in size, reach, and level of competition. He notes that Barnett does not belong in the UFC and that Nzechukwu can win easily by takedown or striking. Vreeland believes the true price is around -900 and that Nzechukwu is a much worse matchup for Barnett than Junior Tafa.

Jeff Fox is reluctantly picking Nzechukwu, pushed into a corner by Vreeland's strong argument for Barnett. He acknowledges Nzechukwu's cardio issues and lack of motivation but still believes he is better than Barnett's previous opponents. Fox seems uncomfortable with the pick but sticks with Nzechukwu.

Nzechukwu is a big favorite but tough to trust after his last performance. He should keep Barnett at bay and possibly find a finish after the 1.5 round mark. However, minus 700 is a bit too wide for comfort.

Paul picks Nzechukwu, agreeing that Barnett is a freak show fighter past his prime. He notes that Nzechukwu's reach and volume will be too much, and that Barnett's durability is questionable. Paul is confident Nzechukwu wins but avoids betting at heavy odds.

The Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing Barnett's long layoff (over two years), age (38), and questionable conditioning. He believes Nzechukwu's athleticism and range will allow him to pick apart Barnett. He notes Barnett's past fight cancellations and weight issues. The Guru predicts Nzechukwu will win by decision or late finish.

Zane picked Nzechukwu, noting that Barnett is a fun fighter but not going to beat big heavyweights. He highlighted that Barnett injured his leg in the pre-fight intro and further during a wheel kick, which was predictable given his rushed recovery from an Achilles injury. Zane praised Nzechukwu's size and form but questioned his confidence, suggesting he may struggle against other big heavyweights.

Zane picks Nzechukwu despite his lack of power and confidence, because Barnett is a tiny heavyweight with no real tools besides confidence. Nzechukwu's size and reach will allow him to crowd Barnett and overwhelm him, though he expects a messy fight. Zane notes that Barnett has lost to other former light heavyweights and lacks durability.

Angelo picks Farid Basharat with medium confidence. He highlights Farid's well-rounded skills, especially his wrestling, and expects him to take Victor Hugo down and control him. He notes Victor is dangerous but wild, and Farid's wrestling should neutralize that. He also mentions the over 2.5 rounds is probably safe.

Bigrady picks Basharat, believing he has Hugo covered everywhere. He notes that Hugo is a grappler who can be taken down and controlled, and that Basharat is the better striker and can easily get takedowns if needed. He thinks the price is a bit high but expects Basharat to cruise to a decision win.

Cody picks Farid Basharat, praising his high ring IQ and relentless grappling. He notes that Basharat's chain wrestling and control will neutralize Hugo, who has poor takedown defense. Cody believes Basharat will dominate with takedowns and control time, winning by decision or submission. He considers Basharat a top play.

Connor picks Basharat, agreeing that he is a very simple call. He notes that Basharat is a really technical wrestler and grappler with a functional striking game, and he has handled tough opponents. Hugo's game is based on opportunistic grappling, but Basharat will shut that down easily.

Daniel Vreeland sees Basharat as clearly better on the feet and expects him to have multiple takedowns if needed. He notes that Hugo got out-wrestled in his Contender Series fight and only won via a kneebar, which won't work against Basharat. Vreeland predicts Basharat cruises to an easy win, though with low finishing upside.

Daniel Vreeland picks Farid Basharat to win, citing his superior process and minute-winning ability. He acknowledges that Victor Hugo is a tough veteran with a long unbeaten streak but believes Basharat's volume and pressure will be the difference. Vreeland notes that Hugo's leg lock attacks could pose a threat if Basharat takes him down.

Jeff Fox agrees with Vreeland, stating that Basharat is better at what Hugo likes to do and worse at what Hugo hates. He implies Basharat's wrestling and pace will be too much for Hugo, and expects a dominant performance.

Basharat is the better brother, mixing his grappling behind educated striking. He should grind out Victor Hugo and win on the scorecards. His overall game is superior.

Paul picks Basharat, noting that Hugo is a step down in competition and that Basharat's grappling will be too much. He mentions that Hugo has been taken down by lesser fighters and that Basharat's wrestling is elite. Paul is confident Basharat wins, possibly by submission.

The Guru picks Farid Basharat, citing his well-roundedness and UFC experience. He was unimpressed with Victor Hugo's last performance against Pedro Falcao, noting Hugo spent too much time being controlled. He believes Basharat's mixing of strikes and takedowns will outwork Hugo, who is more of a striker with takedown defense. The Guru also mentions Basharat's wins over Da'Mon Blackshear and Mario Bautista as solid.

Zane picked Basharat emphatically, using the fight to argue against the idea that missing weight is a huge advantage. He noted that Hugo missed weight by 10 pounds and looked massive, but Basharat fought way better, took good counters, and made the most of opportunities. Zane believes that if one pound is the difference between winning and losing, the fighter's game is too limited.

Zane picks Basharat confidently, noting that he is really good everywhere and has handled three completely different tricky opponents effortlessly. Hugo is an opportunistic grappler who can be backed up easily, and Basharat will shut down his grappling and control the fight anywhere.

Big Brady picks Naurdiev, citing his well-rounded skills and multiple paths to win. He notes that Bruno Silva has looked washed since the Alex Pereira fight, appearing disinterested and fighting poorly. He believes Naurdiev can mix in takedowns and win on the feet or the mat. He predicts a decision win.

Cody picks Bruno Silva, citing Naurdiev's history of quitting and poor durability. He notes that Naurdiev has lost as a favorite multiple times and has cardio issues. Cody believes Silva's power and experience could lead to a knockout if Naurdiev fades. However, he is not confident and suggests a small play or pass.

Connor picks Silva, agreeing that Naurdiev is not durable and walks into hard strikes. Silva is a big puncher and Naurdiev is knockoutable. Connor notes that both fighters are bad and this fight has no reason to exist.

Daniel Vreeland is taking the underdog Bruno Silva despite his recent poor form. He notes that Naurdiev's last win was against an out-of-shape opponent and that Silva hits hard. Vreeland admits it's a stab at plus money, acknowledging Silva's takedown defense issues but hoping for a knockout.

Daniel Vreeland picks Ismail Naurdiev to win, citing Silva's declining durability and poor minute-winning since the Pereira fight. He notes that Naurdiev has grappling upside and is the better minute winner, while Silva relies on a puncher's chance. Vreeland believes the current line is about right and that Naurdiev will pick Silva apart if he doesn't get knocked out early.

Jeff Fox strongly disagrees with Vreeland, calling Naurdiev infinitely better than Silva. He highlights Silva's terrible takedown and submission defense, and Naurdiev's legitimate wrestling and submission game. Fox sees Naurdiev's path to victory via takedowns and a rear-naked choke, and notes the odds of a submission are high.

Naurdiev will mix martial arts effectively, using his wrestling to get top position and grind out a decision. He may leave some striking defense openings that Silva could exploit, but Naurdiev should avoid most of them and also find striking opportunities. The pick is Naurdiev by decision.

Paul picks Silva, noting that Naurdiev has a history of quitting and that Silva has power. He believes Silva can win if he survives the first round, as Naurdiev tends to fade. Paul is not confident but leans Silva due to the line movement.

The Guru picks Ismail Naurdiev, citing Bruno Silva's age (35) and recent unimpressive performances. He notes Naurdiev is a younger, more athletic welterweight moving up, and believes his striking and takedown defense will be enough. He acknowledges Naurdiev's regional losses but thinks he is growing into his prime. The Guru also mentions Silva's losses to Chris Weidman and Brendan Allen as signs of decline.

Zane picked Naurdiev, but was unimpressed with the fight overall. He noted that Silva looked like he doesn't want to fight anymore and has been washed since Gerald Meerschaert outboxed him. Zane acknowledged Naurdiev's hard luck story but said he still didn't look great and will likely wash out against better competition.

Zane picks Silva just for the hell of it, noting that Naurdiev is not durable, not defensively sound, and walks into hard strikes. Silva is a powerful puncher and Naurdiev is knockoutable. However, Zane acknowledges that both fighters are bad and this is a terrible filler fight.

Big Brady picks Fakhretdinov, emphasizing his dominant wrestling. He acknowledges Leal has good striking and takedown defense but believes Fakhretdinov will implement his will with cage pushing and control time. He predicts a decision win, possibly boring.

Cody picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, believing his wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Leal has questionable takedown defense and that Fakhretdinov can grind out a decision. However, Cody is not confident because Fakhretdinov has gassed in recent fights and struggled against strikers. He expects a decision win.

Connor picks Fakhretdinov, agreeing that Leal is a good veteran but his game is not modern MMA. Leal relies on kicks and clinch wrestling but lacks pace and volume. Fakhretdinov's pressure and wrestling will overwhelm Leal, and this fight was made to give Fakhretdinov a decisive win.

Daniel Vreeland sees Rinat Fakhretdinov as a tough matchup for Carlos Leal, especially on short notice. He notes that Leal lost twice to Magomed Umalatov in PFL, who used clinch and takedowns to outmuscle him, and Fakhretdinov has similar skills. Vreeland believes Fakhretdinov will grind out a win via takedowns and control, and thinks the -250 line is still low.

Daniel Vreeland picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win, but with low confidence due to Fakhretdinov's recent performances and questionable gas tank. He notes that Fakhretdinov has dominant top-time upside and that Leal is taking the fight on short notice. Vreeland would need a better price to bet Fakhretdinov, but expects him to get takedowns and potentially grind out a win.

Jeff Fox agrees with Vreeland, calling Fakhretdinov a tough matchup for anyone. He notes that Leal has weight-cutting issues and is making his UFC debut on short notice, which makes it even harder. Fox expects Fakhretdinov to grind out a win, though he doesn't provide additional technical detail.

Fakhretdinov has a wrestling and grappling advantage over the short-notice UFC debutant Leal. He should be able to grind out a decision victory by controlling the fight on the ground. Leal deserves to be in the UFC but this is a bad stylistic matchup for him.

Paul picks Fakhretdinov, citing his wrestling and control. He notes that Leal is a good striker but has been taken down before. Paul believes Fakhretdinov can implement a grappling-heavy game plan and win by decision. He is not highly confident due to Fakhretdinov's cardio issues.

The Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, believing his pressure and well-rounded game will be too much for Carlos Leal, who took the fight on short notice. He notes Fakhretdinov's win over Brian Battle was impressive and that Leal's preparation was for a different opponent. He predicts Fakhretdinov will win by decision or submission, possibly facing some danger early.

Zane clearly picked Leal, calling the decision a robbery. He argued that Fakhretdinov was doing less damage and fighting from behind in every round, while Leal fought well and was in control. Zane dismissed the idea that the crowd influenced the judges, noting there was no crowd. He called it one of the worst robberies of the year.

Zane picks Fakhretdinov because he is a pressure fighter who will clash with Leal and win the clinch wrestling exchanges. Leal is awkward, flat-footed, and lacks pace and volume, while Fakhretdinov keeps pushing and is tough to dissuade. Zane sees this as a clear matchup made for Fakhretdinov to get a statement win.