UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane

Angelo picks Ciryl Gane primarily due to contract negotiation factors, believing Ngannou may have motivation issues. He acknowledges Ngannou is the better fighter with power and takedown defense, but thinks Gane's only path is a decision. He notes the sparring footage where Gane's strikes didn't bother Ngannou.

Big Brady picks Ciryl Gane to win by decision, citing Gane's superior cardio, output, footwork, fight IQ, and defensive soundness. He acknowledges Ngannou's devastating power and the threat of a one-punch knockout, comparing it to the Derrick Lewis fight. He expects Gane to fight smart, stay at range, and avoid danger, similar to his performance against Rozenstruik. He notes that Ngannou has never won a fight past the second round and has never been knocked out, but believes Gane has more paths to victory.

Cody picks Ciryl Gane, emphasizing Gane's superior technique, footwork, cardio, and activity rate compared to Ngannou. He notes that Ngannou, despite his power, is 35 and fights infrequently, while Gane has gone five rounds and shown precision. Cody believes Gane's risk-averse style will allow him to avoid damage and tire Ngannou out in deeper waters. He also mentions the narrative that Ngannou may be distracted by contract disputes and a potential boxing career.

Daniel Levi picks Francis Ngannou to win by knockout. He argues that Ngannou's power is generational and that Ciryl Gane has not faced anyone who can put him on the back foot. Levi notes that Gane drops his hands off kicks and leaves his chin exposed, and believes Ngannou's improved wrestling and fight IQ under Eric Nicksick will be key. He acknowledges Gane's elite movement but thinks Ngannou's power is a different level. Levi also mentions that Ngannou is in a great mental space and that the underdog price is too good to pass up.

The host believes Ciryl Gane's mastery of range management and ability to avoid significant strikes will be key. He notes that Gane has passed the 'heavyweight power punching gauntlet' against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Derrick Lewis, and now faces Ngannou. He expects Gane to use his southpaw stance, body work, and fight IQ to weather the early storm and finish Ngannou in the later rounds, possibly round 4 or 5. He also mentions that Ngannou's cardio is a concern and that Gane is the type of fighter who can exploit that.

Paul picks Francis Ngannou, arguing that Ngannou's power and speed combination gives him at least a 50-50 chance to knock out anyone. He acknowledges Gane's technical advantages and the big cage, but believes Ngannou's power carries into later rounds. Paul also mentions the narrative that Ngannou is motivated to prove himself and secure a better contract. He notes that Ngannou by KO is available at +175 and considers that a play.

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane, calling him a future heavyweight GOAT. He praises Gane's technical striking, including oblique kicks, jabs, and leg kicks, which he believes will neutralize Ngannou's power. He notes Ngannou's distractions (contract disputes, movie appearances) and predicts a fourth-round TKO, as Gane's versatility and range management will be too much.

Angelo picks Figueiredo based on Instagram photos showing him in shape, suggesting his cardio issues may be resolved. He acknowledges Moreno's heart and pace but believes Figueiredo is the more talented fighter. He plans to watch the weigh-ins closely.

Big Brady picks Figueiredo as a dog, but his pick is conditional on Figueiredo looking good at weigh-ins. He notes that Figueiredo was a huge favorite in the first fight and a -200 favorite in the second, but is now a +145 underdog. He believes the best version of Figueiredo edges a close fight, but the version that showed up in the second fight (only 13 significant strikes in round 1) was due to a bad weight cut. He needs to see Figueiredo on the scales before finalizing, but as of now he takes Figgy to win a back-and-forth war by decision.

Cody picks Brandon Moreno, citing Moreno's durability, improving submission defense, high-level jiu-jitsu, and cardio advantage. He notes that Figueiredo has power and a guillotine but fades in later rounds due to weight cuts, while Moreno gets better as the fight goes on. Cody also mentions that Moreno is only 28 and improving, whereas Figueiredo is 34 and may be declining. He previously bet Moreno by decision but now thinks Moreno could finish again.

Daniel Levi picks Figueiredo to reclaim the belt. He highlights Figueiredo's camp changes: leaving Brazil, training with Henry Cejudo and Neuroforce One, which he believes will lead to a better performance. Levi notes that Figueiredo was a -200 favorite in the first two fights and is now a +155 underdog, which he sees as value. He acknowledges Moreno's toughness and improved wrestling but thinks Figueiredo on his best day beats anyone in the division. Levi also mentions the pressure on Moreno as the first Mexican champion and that Figueiredo has nothing to lose.

The host believes Figueiredo did not show up in the second fight and that Moreno's win was more due to Figueiredo's poor performance than Moreno's improvement. He notes Figueiredo's camp change to Fight Ready and expects him to return to his aggressive style from the first fight. He thinks the odds should be closer to a pick'em, making Figueiredo at +150 good value. He predicts Figueiredo will win a decision, as Moreno has a cast-iron chin and is tough to finish.

Paul leans towards Figueiredo at plus money, noting that Figueiredo was winning the first fight before a point deduction and that he looked jacked in recent photos. He acknowledges Moreno's durability but thinks Figueiredo's power and guillotine are threats. However, Paul is not fully confident and suggests monitoring the live market rather than placing a pre-fight bet.

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Moreno, believing he has broken Figueiredo's aura of invincibility. He notes Moreno's improved boxing training with Canelo, good chin, and confidence. He predicts Figueiredo's wrestling-heavy game plan will gas him out, leading to a late fifth-round TKO for Moreno.

Angelo picks Michel Pereira, citing his speed, athleticism, and improved cardio. He notes Fialho's lack of head movement and tendency to throw one strike at a time, which Pereira can exploit. However, he acknowledges Fialho's real power and durability, making him dangerous late in the fight.

Big Brady picks Michel Pereira to win by decision, citing Pereira's massive volume, speed, and cardio advantages over Fialho. He notes that Fialho is powerful but low volume, slow, and takes fights on short notice. Pereira is durable (only one KO loss in 37 fights) and has solid wrestling and BJJ as alternate paths. He acknowledges Fialho's power but believes it's a bad matchup for him.

Cody picks Michel Pereira, stating that Pereira is leveled above Fialho in striking and that Fialho's game falls apart if he doesn't finish early. He notes that Fialho has been released by Bellator and PFL, and that his cardio and defensive striking are poor. Cody warns that Pereira can be reckless and may get disqualified, but believes Pereira's speed, durability, and power will prevail. He also mentions that Pereira has shown improved cardio in recent decisions.

Daniel Levi leans toward Michel Pereira but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He acknowledges Fialho's momentum and power but believes Pereira's athleticism, discipline at 170, and recent improvements make him the pick. Levi notes that Pereira has faced hard hitters before and that Fialho's competition hasn't been at the same level. He expects Pereira to land a big knee or straight right and finish Fialho.

The host sees this as a perfect stylistic matchup for Pereira, who will stay on the outside and avoid Fiallo's preferred boxing range. He notes that Fiallo struggles when opponents dictate the pace and that Pereira's movement and the larger cage will benefit him. He expects Pereira to touch Fiallo up and possibly knock him out, predicting a second-round KO.

Paul picks Michel Pereira but is hesitant due to Pereira's tendency to do reckless things like backflips that could lead to disqualification. He notes that Pereira's cardio is questionable and that he gassed against Niko Price. However, Paul acknowledges that Fialho is not a high-level opponent and that Pereira should win if he fights smart. He advises being careful with the bet.

The MMA Guru picks Michel Pereira, predicting a first-round KO via flying knee. He notes Fialho's power and training at Sanford MMA but believes Fialho's short-notice aggression will leave him open. He compares the matchup to Pereira's win over Chaos Williams, expecting Pereira to land a big shot on the advancing Fialho.

Angelo picks Cody Stamann, expecting his pace and takedowns to frustrate a ring-rusty Nurmagomedov. He compares it to Barcelos vs Nurmagomedov where Barcelos won a decision. He admits it's not a confident pick but likes Cody in that matchup.

Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov to win by decision, citing his striking advantage, volume, defense, and significant reach and height advantages. He notes that Stamann's path to victory is takedowns, but Stamann struggles to control opponents and Nurmagomedov has good takedown defense and scrambling. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Nurmagomedov will outpoint Stamann.

Cody picks Cody Stamann as a live underdog, arguing that the line is off because people assume Nurmagomedov has grappling like other Nurmagomedovs, but Said is primarily a striker. He notes that Said has been taken down before (e.g., by Bibilatov) and that Stamann has good wrestling and game plans. Cody believes Stamann will use takedowns and top control to win a decision, and likes the plus money.

Daniel Levi leans toward Said Nurmagomedov but is not confident enough to lay the -200 price. He notes Nurmagomedov's explosive striking and six-inch reach advantage, but acknowledges Stamann's wrestling and ability to make fights close. Levi thinks Stamann can be competitive with anyone and that the fight could be a split decision. He ultimately gives a slight edge to Nurmagomedov due to his flashy striking and crowd-pleasing style.

The host believes the line is inflated due to the 'Russian tax' on Nurmagomedov. He argues that Stamann has the wrestling advantage and will be able to take Nurmagomedov down, especially in later rounds. He notes that Nurmagomedov prefers to strike from range, but Stamann can crash the pocket and use his wrestling. He expects Stamann to win a decision by out-grappling and out-working Nurmagomedov.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Stamann as a live dog. He notes that Said's wrestling hasn't been tested at UFC level and that Stamann is a bigger bantamweight who has fought tough competition. Paul believes Stamann's wrestling and game planning will expose Said's defensive weaknesses. He also mentions that Stamann has scored takedowns in his last four fights.

The MMA Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov, citing his youth, improvements, and recent first-round KO of Mark Striegl. He believes Nurmagomedov can stuff takedowns and outwork Stamann, predicting a second-round spinning back kick to the body TKO. He notes Stamann's recent losses and crying incident as signs of decline.

Angelo picks Michael Morales, calling him a killer with national championships in wrestling and Muay Thai. He notes Morales' footwork and jab, and believes he is better everywhere except pace. He sees Trevin Giles as a good measuring stick but expects Morales to win.

Big Brady picks Michael Morales to win a close decision, citing his volume, reach advantage, and well-rounded game. He heavily criticizes Trevin Giles for poor fight IQ, cardio, and low volume, and notes Giles is cutting to 170 which is a concern. He acknowledges Giles has a grappling advantage but doesn't trust him to fight smart. He expects Morales to outpoint Giles in a close fight.

Cody picks Trevin Giles as an underdog, citing Giles' experience against higher-level competition and his well-rounded skills. He notes that Giles has fought at 205 and 185, and moving to 170 may benefit him. Cody acknowledges Giles' cardio issues and past submissions, but believes his boxing and grappling are superior to Morales'. He sees this as a dog-or-pass situation.

Daniel Levi picks Michael Morales but admits he is hesitant and will not bet the fight. He acknowledges the classic spot where an unproven prospect faces a grizzled vet at dog money, which often goes the vet's way. However, his gut tells him Morales is the more talented fighter and will get it done. Levi notes that Giles has a history of making mistakes and getting choked out, but also that Morales could suffer from debut nerves. He compares it to the Ignacio vs Makdessi fight where the better fighter didn't win.

The host is skeptical of Morales being a favorite given his unproven competition. He notes that Giles is a tested veteran with fast hands and good movement, and that Morales has not faced anyone like Giles. He thinks Giles can use his jab and movement to discourage Morales and win a decision. However, he admits he is not a big Giles fan and may not bet it, but his prediction is Giles by decision.

Paul picks Michael Morales, noting his youth (22) and wrestling from the contender series. He acknowledges that Morales' striking is a work in progress but believes his ceiling is higher. Paul is not a fan of Trevin Giles, citing his underwhelming UFC run and cardio issues. However, he is not highly confident and suggests this fight could be passed.

The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales, praising his stand-up, grappling, and all-around skills. He notes Giles' recent KO loss and poor performance against James Krause on short notice. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision, with Morales schooling Giles on the feet for three rounds.

Angelo picks Raoni Barcelos, praising his well-rounded skills including power, speed, striking, wrestling, and BJJ. He expects Barcelos to have a tough time on the feet but then move to grappling where he has a solid advantage. He likes the under on rounds as a prop bet, predicting a finish.

Big Brady picks Raoni Barcelos to win by decision, citing Barcelos being on another level compared to Henry. He notes Henry's takedown defense and get-up game are not great, and Barcelos has a black belt in BJJ to control Henry on the ground. He expects Barcelos to win the first two rounds comfortably and notes Henry has never been finished in 26 fights, so decision is likely. The only concern is Barcelos' gas tank, but he still sees Barcelos winning easily.

Cody picks Raoni Barcelos, stating that Barcelos is better than Victor Henry in every facet: boxing, wrestling, jiu-jitsu, and cardio. He notes that Barcelos has a wrestling background and is a BJJ black belt. However, Cody warns that Barcelos sometimes fights bad game plans, as seen in his last fight. He considers Barcelos a second-ticket play rather than a top-ticket due to the high price.

Daniel Levi confidently picks Raoni Barcelos to win. He praises Barcelos' boxing and jiu-jitsu, calling him a black belt under a red belt. Levi believes Barcelos is undefeated in the UFC (disputing the loss to Timur Valiev) and that Victor Henry, while tough and never finished, is outmatched. He expects Barcelos to dominate everywhere and predicts a first-round submission or knockout. Levi criticizes Barcelos' management for taking risky fights with little reward.

The host believes Barcelos is the better fighter in all areas: striking, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu. He thinks Henry's only path to victory is if Barcelos has a poor performance like he did against Timur Valiev. He expects Barcelos to win by decision but also likes the submission prop at +455. He plans to use Barcelos in parlays.

Paul picks Raoni Barcelos, agreeing with Cody that Barcelos is the superior fighter. He notes that the line has moved from -375 to -500, indicating public support. Paul believes Barcelos should win but acknowledges the high price makes it less attractive for a large bet.

The MMA Guru picks Raoni Barcelos, calling him a missed gem of the UFC. He notes Barcelos' delayed career due to cancellations but trusts his skills, including leg kicks and takedown defense. He predicts a dominant 30-26 decision, as Victor Henry is tough but not at Barcelos' level.

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his significant experience advantage (10-2 vs 4-0) and deceptive power. He notes Jack's forward pressure and step-in jab, and believes his takedown defense will be sufficient. He predicts a KO/TKO win, overwhelming the inexperienced Rodriguez.

Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by first-round knockout, citing his impressive combinations, power, body work, and brown belt BJJ. He notes Rodriguez has a puncher's chance but his competition is sketchy, his ground game is questionable, and he's on short notice. Della Maddalena had a full camp and is the much better fighter overall. He expects an early finish.

Cody picks Jack Della Maddalena, praising his pace, cardio, and volume striking. He notes that Della Maddalena overwhelmed his contender series opponent with relentless pressure. Cody believes Rodriguez is too raw, with only four pro fights and all first-round finishes against low-level competition. He expects Della Maddalena to absorb the early storm and take over in the second round.

Daniel Levi confidently picks Jack Della Maddalena to win. He highlights Della Maddalena's experience (10-2, 0-2 start), wrestling background, and ability to overcome adversity. Levi notes that Rodriguez has only four pro fights and has never been out of the first round, while Della Maddalena has shown a well-rounded game with finishes and decisions. He expects Della Maddalena to weather Rodriguez's early storm and win, possibly by finish.

The host is very high on Della Maddalena, citing his wrestling background, power, and finishing ability. He notes that Rodriguez has power but lacks technique and has not faced high-level competition. He expects Della Maddalena to win by submission or ground-and-pound, likely in round 1 or 2. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds at even money, as 21 of their combined 26 fights ended before that mark.

Paul picks Jack Della Maddalena, noting his great mobility and volume striking. He points out that Rodriguez has only four pro fights and all are first-round finishes against low-level opponents. Paul questions Rodriguez's cardio and durability, and believes Della Maddalena's experience and pace will be too much.

The MMA Guru is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, praising his contender series performance and durability. He notes Maddalena's KO power, submission ability, and cardio, and believes he will bully Pete Rodriguez, who is taking the fight on short notice. He predicts a late second-round TKO against the cage, citing Maddalena's superior competition and toughness.

Angelo picks Tony Gravely despite the submission threat from Oliveira. He believes Gravely's wrestling and top pressure will be effective, similar to how Arjan Bhullar beat Oliveira. However, he warns that five of Gravely's seven losses are by submission, and Oliveira has 11 submission wins, so he will be looking at prop bets.

Big Brady picks Tony Gravely to win by first or second round knockout, citing his power advantage and superior competition. He notes Oliveira's record is padded and he is hittable. Gravely has multiple paths: knockout on the feet or takedown and ground-and-pound. The only concern is Gravely has been submitted before, but those were against elite grapplers. He expects Gravely to finish Oliveira early.

Cody picks Tony Gravely, citing his collegiate wrestling, developing boxing, and power. He notes that Oliveira has never been finished and has poor defensive tendencies, leaving himself open to big shots. Cody believes Gravely's wrestling and striking will be too much, but warns that Gravely has cardio issues and can be reckless. He likes Gravely by knockout but notes the decision is possible.

Daniel Levi picks Saimon Oliveira as an underdog. He notes that Tony Gravely has a history of mental lapses, getting submitted or knocked out after dominating early rounds. Oliveira is experienced (18-3), has fought tough competition like Ari Farias, and has knockout power and opportunistic submissions. Levi believes Gravely will muscle Oliveira around early but eventually leave his neck or chin out, allowing Oliveira to capitalize and get his first UFC win. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

The host leans Oliveira because he believes Gravely's cardio is suspect and that Oliveira has advantages on the feet and in the clinch. He notes that Gravely tends to fade in later rounds and that Oliveira has good guillotine chokes if Gravely shoots desperately. He expects Oliveira to win by submission in the third round, but he is not confident enough to bet it heavily; he may take a small play on under 2.5 rounds.

Paul picks Tony Gravely, agreeing that Gravely's wrestling and power are key. He notes that Oliveira has never been finished but puts himself in positions to get sparked. Paul warns that Gravely's cardio is a concern and that he gassed against Nate Maness. He advises not going too heavy on Gravely due to these risks.

The MMA Guru picks Tony Gravely, though hesitant due to Gravely's recent KO loss. He notes Gravely's tough competition and training at 80T, and believes his grappling and stand-up will be enough. He was unimpressed by Oliveira's contender series performance and predicts a close 29-28 decision.

Angelo picks Vanessa Demopoulos, noting she has a full camp at her natural weight class. He believes her speed, volume, and grappling edge give her the advantage, though he doesn't expect the fight to go to the ground. He mentions the odds have shifted and he agrees with Vanessa being the slight favorite, but he is not betting on this fight.

Big Brady picks Silvana Gómez Juárez as a dog, citing Demopoulos' inability to get takedowns (0 for 7 in UFC/Contender Series) and poor striking defense. He notes Demopoulos is very hittable and may pull guard, but Juarez can keep the fight standing and outstrike her. He calls it a low-level fight and says he will not bet it.

Cody picks Silvana Gómez Juárez as a dog, noting that Demopoulos has limited wrestling and striking, relying on jiu-jitsu. He believes Juárez will win if the fight stays standing, as she has better boxing. However, Cody acknowledges that Demopoulos could win if she gets the fight to the ground. He calls this a 'dogger pass' and is not confident.

Daniel Levi picks Silvana Gómez Juárez to win by decision. He argues that Demopoulos is a punching bag on the feet with no real threat, and that her only path to victory is a fluke submission. Gómez Juárez is more well-rounded, has better boxing, and can keep the fight at distance with leg kicks. Levi notes that Demopoulos has only beaten Sam Hughes via fluke submission and that Gómez Juárez has beaten better competition. He expects a clear decision win for the underdog.

The host sees this as a 50/50 fight but gives a slight edge to Juarez. He believes Juarez is the better striker and that Demopoulos needs to get the fight to the ground to win, but he doubts Demopoulos's wrestling ability. He notes that Juarez showed good takedown defense against Lupita Godinez. He predicts Juarez by decision, but also thinks Juarez could finish if she lands cleanly.

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He mentions that he had Juarez as an underdog last time but has no strong opinion now. He notes that Demopoulos has good jiu-jitsu but limited wrestling, while Juarez has better striking. Paul suggests passing on this fight.

The MMA Guru picks Vanessa Demopoulos, noting her better competition and close decision loss to Lupita Godinez, whereas Gómez Juárez was submitted by Godinez. He trusts Demopoulos' experience and activity, and mentions she is a slight underdog, which he is taking advantage of.

Angelo leans toward Jasmine Jasudavicius, believing she wins the striking exchanges and her hips will be too good for Kay Hansen in scrambles. He notes Kay is more powerful and has better takedowns, but Jasmine's technical striking and hip control give her the edge. He picks the underdog Jasmine.

Big Brady picks Kay Hansen to win by third-round submission, citing her superior grappling (brown belt BJJ), improving striking, and cardio advantage. He notes Jasudavicius is an Olympic wrestler but has poor striking defense, bad cardio, and was reversed by a white belt (Elise Reed). Hansen is younger, has more fights, and has a significant advantage on the mat. He expects Hansen to submit Jasudavicius in the third round as she often finishes late.

Cody picks Kay Hansen, stating that Hansen is better in every facet: wrestling, boxing, cardio, and jiu-jitsu. He notes that Hansen is only 22 and has a chip on her shoulder after a controversial loss to Cory McKenna. Cody believes Hansen's submission skills are a threat, and he likes her submission prop at +450. He dismisses Jasudavicius as a 33-year-old debutant with no athletic background.

Daniel Levi picks Kay Hansen but is not confident about the betting line. He notes that Hansen has never been taken down in the UFC and has good grappling, while Jasudavicius is hittable and relies on top control. However, Hansen is moving up in weight and Jasudavicius is a big flyweight. Levi thinks Hansen's UFC experience and grappling will separate her as the fight progresses, but he is not crazy about the betting line.

The host believes Jasudavicius is being undervalued due to the 'fade contender series' narrative. He notes her reach advantage, striking edge, and improving grappling. He thinks Hansen's layoff and developing game will be issues. He expects Jasudavicius to win by decision, possibly by out-striking Hansen on the feet.

Paul picks Kay Hansen, noting her youth, submission skills, and experience against tough opponents. He questions Jasudavicius's durability and defensive liabilities. Paul also mentions that Hansen has a reach disadvantage but believes her overall game is superior. He likes Hansen by submission at plus money.

The MMA Guru picks Jasmine Jasudavicius as a big underdog, questioning why Kay Hansen is a heavy favorite. He praises Jasudavicius' contender series performance, cardio, and improvements at Syndicate MMA. He criticizes Hansen's inactivity and unimpressive wins, and believes Jasudavicius is technically better on the feet.