Fight card

UFC 322

November 15, 2025 Madison Square Garden New York City, New York, United States
Fight 1 VS Welterweight Completed
Islam Makhachev

Islam Makhachev W

28-1
Decision R5 5:00

Jack Della Maddalena

Moneyline
Caesars +250
KO/TKO
BetMGM +510
Submission
FanDuel +3300
Decision
FanDuel +650

Islam Makhachev

Moneyline
BetWay -275
KO/TKO
FanDuel +800
Submission
BetMGM +188
Decision
FanDuel +200
Fighter Stats

Jack Della Maddalena

Age29
Height5' 11"
Reach73.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Islam Makhachev

Age34
Height5' 10"
Reach70.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Jack Della Maddalena

5.57SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
3.84SApM
63.0%Str. Def.
0.13TD Avg
10.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Islam Makhachev

2.45SLpM
58.0%Str. Acc.
1.45SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
3.1TD Avg
56.0%TD Acc.
91.0%TD Def.
1.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, emphasizing his relentless wrestling and ability to chain takedowns. He acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's size and scrambling but believes Islam's wrestling pressure will be too much. He notes this is a tough fight due to JDM's size but still picks Islam.

"I'm gonna go with the wrestler here... I think the relentless wrestling pressure from Islam is going to be enough."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev, citing Jack Della Maddalena's history of making mistakes on the ground, such as surviving deep submissions against Anshul Jubli and Ramazan Emeev. He believes Makhachev will capitalize on those mistakes, get takedowns, and secure a submission, likely a D'Arce choke. Brady notes Della Maddalena has been taken down frequently and thinks Makhachev's grappling is on another level. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I'm going to take Islamachev to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing that Islam's wrestling and game plan are perfectly suited to beat Jack. He notes that Jack's takedown defense was exposed by Belal and Gilbert Burns, who are not on Islam's level. Cody highlights that Islam has Khabib in his corner and will stick to the game plan of taking Jack down and controlling him. He predicts a decision or late finish for Islam.

"ride this man like a miniature pony for 25 minutes, pick up a decision, or finish him late if the opportunity opens up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Makhachev based on his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Makhachev has diverse takedown entries and rarely loses positions, while Della Maddalena has shown takedown defense issues and made bad grappling decisions against Belal. He acknowledges Della Maddalena's punching power but believes Makhachev's wrestling will be the deciding factor.

Odds: Makhachev opened -265, now -250; Della Maddalena opened +225, now +210. Connor mentions the line move and jokes about fight fixing.
"I still have to pick Makachev just out of hand here. I really cannot watch the body of work that both men have done and say that I trust JDM to stay on his feet and out punch …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Jack's toughness and underrated grappling, but believes Islam's grappling is on another level. He notes that Jack has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Islam's darce choke and grip strength are exceptional. He expects Islam to capitalize on the ground where others couldn't, but warns that if the fight stays on the feet, Jack could hurt Islam with body shots.

"I think I got to go with Makachev because I've seen Jack in those vulnerable spots on the mat and I think that Islam can capitalize where other guys weren't able to do it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win by decision. He believes Islam's grappling is a massive advantage, as he will take JDM down and control him, similar to his fights against Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski. He notes JDM's improved grappling defense but thinks Islam's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are too much. He predicts the fight goes the distance, with Islam winning via control and possibly threatening submissions but not finishing.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to pick Islam Makv. I'm going to pick him via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's move to welterweight is calculated. He wears Della Maddalena down with wrestling. Della Maddalena's BJJ improvements keep him from being finished, but Makhachev wins on the scorecards to become champion.

"Look for Makachev to really wear Matalena down. Although I expect the BJJ improvements of Matalena to keep him out of trouble in terms of getting finished. Thus, I'm going to put pick Makashev to win this fight …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul believes Islam's wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Jack's takedown defense has improved but that Belal Muhammad had success wrestling late in their fight, and Islam is a much better wrestler. He also points out that Jack's win over Belal was a split decision and that he was controlled on the ground. Paul thinks Islam's size is not a concern and that he will bring the title back to Dagestan.

"the title's coming home to Dagestan on Saturday night."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by TKO in round three or four. He believes JDM's grappling defense and scrambling ability will neutralize Makhachev's takedowns, and his striking volume and body work will take over in later rounds. He compares JDM to a better version of Dustin Poirier, who had success against Makhachev. The Guru sees Makhachev's path to victory only via early submission, which he doubts.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned in prizepicks segment)
"I'm going with Jack Dela Madelena. I think this is actually Makashev's [ __ ] arm holding the belt, which doesn't bode well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev due to his wrestling advantage. He highlights that Della Maddalena struggled with Belal's wrestling and that Makhachev is a much better wrestler. He also notes the weight class change and Makhachev's potential decline but still favors him.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"So yeah, I think you have to pick Makachev, but that is fascinating. It's the champion taking literally the most dangerous..."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Valentina Shevchenko

Valentina Shevchenko W

26-4-1
Decision R5 5:00
Fight 2 VS Women's Flyweight Completed

Valentina Shevchenko

Moneyline
FanDuel -136
KO/TKO
FanDuel +800
Submission
FanDuel +900
Decision
BetMGM +150

Zhang Weili

Moneyline
BetMGM +120
KO/TKO
BetMGM +750
Submission
BetMGM +1200
Decision
FanDuel +230
Fighter Stats

Valentina Shevchenko

Age38
Height5' 5"
Reach66.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Zhang Weili

Age36
Height5' 4"
Reach63.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Valentina Shevchenko

3.04SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
2.0SApM
63.0%Str. Def.
2.65TD Avg
61.0%TD Acc.
76.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Zhang Weili

4.66SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
2.63SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
1.96TD Avg
44.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo leans towards Zhang Weili, citing her superior wrestling and athleticism. He believes Weili's clean double-leg takedowns will be effective against Valentina Shevchenko, who relies on striking to set up takedowns. He acknowledges Shevchenko's experience and durability but thinks Weili's speed and wrestling will be the difference.

"I am going to slightly lean way Lee here. I think the wrestling is going to be the difference."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady leans Valentina Shevchenko, citing her size advantage and natural weight class. He notes Shevchenko's wrestling ability, having taken down Manon Fiorot, and believes she can get takedowns on Zhang Weili, who was taken down multiple times by Rose Namajunas. However, he acknowledges Zhang's physical strength and says it wouldn't shock him if Zhang gets top position. Brady is not betting on this fight and predicts a decision win for Shevchenko.

"I'm going to lean Valentina Shiftenko ever so slightly. I think it's a decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Cody picks Valentina due to her size, experience, and well-rounded skills. He notes that she is an elite kickboxer and wrestler, and that her trilogy with Grasso was a blip. He highlights that Zhang has had takedown defense issues in the past, and that Valentina consistently scores takedowns. He believes Valentina's size and strength will be key, and that she will win by decision.

Valentina Shevchenko by decision
"Valentina Shevchenko by decision play for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Connor picks Shevchenko but is hesitant, calling it a coin flip. He argues that Shevchenko's simple, patient style and mental stamina will frustrate Zhang, who struggles with distance and initiating exchanges. He notes that Zhang's wrestling might be neutralized by Shevchenko's clinch and top control, and that Zhang has been vulnerable when taken down.

Odds: Shevchenko opened +120, now -135; Zhang opened -140, now +115.
"I'm going to take Shevchenko, but I'm fascinated by the fight too. It genuinely feels like a coin flip to me."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel respects Shevchenko's technical striking and well-rounded game, but sees Zhang as the fighter making rapid improvements, especially in wrestling. He notes that Zhang has outgrappled elite wrestlers like Carla Esparza and Tatiana Suarez, while Shevchenko hasn't shown the same evolution. He also likes the dog odds on Zhang and believes she can become a double champ.

"I'm actually going to pick Jean Lee to come out here, make history, become another double champ, and bring another belt back to China."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Lucrative James picks Valentina Shevchenko to win, stating she is the greatest women's fighter of all time. He believes her wrestling and grappling are superior to Zhang's, and she can outskill her on the feet. He notes both fighters have losses due to grappling, but trusts Shevchenko's takedown accuracy and experience against tougher opponents. He expects Shevchenko to control the fight and win a decision or possibly a late submission.

"My prediction is going to be fairly short and sweet here, boys. It's going to be Valentina Chevchenko to get the win and go down as the greatest women's fighter that we have ever seen in MMA."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Shevchenko's size and overall MMA advantages muzzle Zhang's style. She mixes martial arts well, sets up takedowns behind strikes, and wins on the scorecards.

"I think that Chevchenko is the side here. Look for her size and overall MMA advantages to help her really muzzle that uh style of Jeang. ... I expect her to do it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Valentina's size advantage and superior wrestling. He notes that both fighters are similar in age but that Valentina is the bigger fighter and has a better takedown ratio. He thinks the fight will come down to grappling and top position, and that Valentina will win those exchanges. He also mentions that Valentina is more technical on the feet.

"give me the bigger bigger fighter with frankly a better, you know, takedown to taken down uh ratio."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The Guru picks Zhang Weili to win by split decision. He believes Zhang is a better fighter than Alexa Grasso and Manon Fiorot, who gave Shevchenko close fights. He notes Shevchenko's recent performances have been less dominant, and Zhang's grappling and striking should be competitive. The Guru also suggests promotional favoritism towards the Chinese market could influence a close decision.

"I'm gonna go Jang Lee. Lighter woman's skill. Um I think she's better than Alexa Carraso and I think that's what this is going to come down to."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Zane also picks Shevchenko hesitantly, emphasizing that Zhang's game plan may not work against Shevchenko's patience. He notes that Zhang has become a punch-and-clutch fighter but still struggles with range, and Shevchenko will force her to initiate. He sees Shevchenko's ability to maintain a low-risk fight as key.

Same odds commentary.
"I'm going to pick Shevchenko just because I think because Weilijang struggles so much with that distance, that if her opponent is well attuned to taking advantage of that fact, they can take her down."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 3 VS Welterweight Completed
Michael Morales

Michael Morales W

19-0
KO R1 3:27

Sean Brady

Moneyline
Caesars -130
KO/TKO
FanDuel +800
Submission
BetMGM +475
Decision
FanDuel +200

Michael Morales

Moneyline
FanDuel +116
KO/TKO
BetMGM +350
Submission
BetMGM +3000
Decision
FanDuel +320
Fighter Stats

Sean Brady

Age33
Height5' 10"
Reach72.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Michael Morales

Age26
Height6' 0"
Reach79.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Sean Brady

3.96SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
3.05SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
3.53TD Avg
53.0%TD Acc.
86.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Michael Morales

5.68SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.26SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
1.04TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
89.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Angelo picks Sean Brady, believing his relentless wrestling and pressure will stifle Michael Morales, who needs space to strike. He notes Brady's takedowns and control are elite, and Morales doesn't wrestle often despite his credentials. He hopes the line tightens and plans to bet on Brady.

"Brady's going to be the pick. I'm hoping this line continues to tighten... I like Shawn Brady here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Big Brady picks Michael Morales as a slight underdog, struggling with this fight. He acknowledges Sean Brady's elite wrestling and grappling but notes that if Brady can't get takedowns, he is vulnerable to getting knocked out, as seen in the Belal Muhammad fight. Brady believes Morales hits harder than Muhammad and has a size advantage, making him tough to take down early. He predicts Morales will stuff takedowns and knock out Brady in the first round.

first round knockout
"I'll go Morales by first round knockout here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Cody picks Morales despite acknowledging Brady's superior grappling. He highlights Morales's size, youth, reach advantage, and improving takedown defense. He notes that Brady's striking defense is poor and that Morales has power and unorthodox striking. Cody believes Morales can either knock Brady out or win a decision by outworking him on the feet.

"Morales may knock him out. But even if he doesn't, I think he can win just two of the three rounds and get a get a decision on the scorecards."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Connor picks Brady, citing his well-rounded game, strong wrestling, and improved striking composure. He notes that Morales is a raw athlete with no real game plan, relying on physical gifts. However, he flags a major X-factor: Morales has a 79-inch reach, which could cause Brady striking issues he hasn't faced before.

Odds: Brady opened -135, still -135; Morales opened +115, still +115.
"I'm still picking Sean Brady. Yeah, but I am saying there is actually a huge x factor here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Daniel is torn but leans toward Morales as a slight underdog. He acknowledges Brady's impressive recent form and top control, but notes Morales' freak athleticism, underrated takedown defense, and ability to power out of bad spots. He sees the fight as 50-50 and likes the plus money on Morales.

"I think I gotta go with the dog odds of Michael Morales here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Lucrative James picks Sean Brady to win, but with low confidence. He believes Morales' athleticism and power will be dangerous early, but Brady's superior grappling and cardio will take over in later rounds. He notes Morales' massive weight cut may affect his gas tank, while Brady has proven he can go five rounds. He expects Brady to survive the early striking exchanges and then dominate on the ground, possibly securing a submission or decision.

"I'm going to pick Shawn Brady in this fight. The level of competition for Shawn Brady has been higher, has been better."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Morales' freak athleticism, power, strength, and speed come through. He stops takedowns or works back to his feet, lands bigger shots on the feet, and gets a knockout victory.

knockout victory
"I expect the freak athleticism, power, strength, and speed of Morales to come through for him. ... I think he'll land bigger, better shots, which should lead to an eventual knockout victory for Morales."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Morales is getting better and that Brady's grappling might not work against a bigger, younger opponent. He mentions that Morales's career trajectory is upward and that he looks like a problem for the division. Paul thinks the first exchange will reveal how effective Brady's wrestling is, but he leans towards Morales.

"Morales is the pick for me as well for a pretty much all the things that you highlighted."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Sean Brady

The Guru picks Sean Brady to win, likely by submission or decision. He highlights Brady's superior grappling and physicality, which should overwhelm Morales, who has shown vulnerability to takedowns. Brady's dominant win over Leon Edwards is a key reference. The Guru acknowledges Morales' power but believes Brady's pressure and clinch work will be decisive.

"I'm gonna go with Shawn Brady. I think Brady's going to either win by submission or it'll be a close decision win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Brady. He emphasizes Brady's rock-solid wrestling and improved striking, and notes that Morales has never faced a high-level wrestler. He acknowledges the reach advantage but believes Brady's strength and experience will prevail.

Same odds commentary.
"I'm picking Sean Brady right there with you. But, you know, and I'll be really impressed with Michael Morales, if he can win this fight..."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 6 months, 2 weeks ago

A polarised fight, the ko can be found for 5.0

Fight 4 VS Welterweight Completed
Carlos Prates

Carlos Prates W

24-7
KO R2 1:28

Leon Edwards

Moneyline
BetMGM +150
KO/TKO
BetMGM +700
Submission
BetMGM +2200
Decision
FanDuel +260

Carlos Prates

Moneyline
FanDuel -168
KO/TKO
BetMGM +175
Submission
BetRivers +2800
Decision
FanDuel +280
Fighter Stats

Leon Edwards

Age34
Height6' 2"
Reach74.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Carlos Prates

Age32
Height6' 1"
Reach78.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Leon Edwards

2.6SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
2.44SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
1.25TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Carlos Prates

3.77SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
4.53SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
0.21TD Avg
100.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Angelo picks Carlos Prates, noting that Leon Edwards' recent losses were to wrestlers, while Prates is a dangerous striker. He believes Edwards has shown lack of heart recently and Prates' power and accuracy will be too much. He is excited for the fight and confident in Prates.

"I think Carlos is going to win here. I'm very excited for this fight. I'm going to pick Carlos Protest."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates, believing he is getting Leon Edwards at the right time. He criticizes Edwards for having boring fights and not facing dangerous knockout artists, noting Edwards has never been knocked out but hasn't fought many power punchers. Brady thinks Prates has the 'death touch' and will knock out Edwards if he lets his hands go, predicting a second-round knockout. He acknowledges the risk of a slow start but expects Prates to show urgency.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take Prochess to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Cody also picks Prates but calls it a trap line due to recency bias. He notes that Leon has been taken down frequently but that Prates won't wrestle, which could make Leon more comfortable. However, Cody believes Prates is younger, more aggressive, and will land bigger shots. He is concerned about Leon's past performances but ultimately sides with Prates.

"I still feel like he's just at a point of his career where he's going to be a little more aggressive, a little more active, and that's all it's going to take."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Connor picks Prates hesitantly, citing Edwards' recent decline in motivation and tendency to fade in fights. He notes that Prates is a dangerous striker who can capitalize on Edwards' lapses, especially if Edwards backs to the fence. However, he acknowledges Prates' wrestling is unproven and Edwards could out-grapple him.

Odds: Edwards opened -160, now +160; Prates opened +140, now -185. Line has flipped.
"I will take, I will pick the guy I want to see win this fight, Carlos projects, but in three rounds... I have a lot of doubts."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Daniel believes Prates is catching Edwards at the right time, as Edwards has looked uninspired and has been rocked multiple times. He praises Prates' knockout power and variety of strikes, and notes that Edwards' measured pace plays into Prates' style of downloading data and finding openings. He predicts a knockout win for Prates.

by KO
"I'm going to go with Carlos Bratis to come out here and knock out Leon Edwards."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win by KO. He highlights Prates' diverse striking arsenal, especially his devastating knee strikes, and believes Edwards will struggle to stay safe on the feet. He notes Edwards has been hurt by lesser strikers and doubts his ability to grapple effectively against Prates. He predicts Prates will land a knockout in round two or three, continuing his streak of walk-off KOs in the UFC.

by KO
"Carlos Prates, in my opinion, is going to go out there and get a KO over Leon Edwards."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Prates stops Edwards' takedowns and boxes him up on the feet, landing better shots to win on the scorecards. However, the odds are a little wide for my liking, indicating some hesitation.

odds are a little wide for my liking
"I do like some prochess here as I think that he can stop the takedowns that Edwards will inevitably be looking for here and then box him up on the feet landing better shots and then win this …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Paul picks Prates, citing that Leon Edwards is on the decline and has shown low volume and a tendency to quit. He notes that Prates is on the rise and has power, and that Leon's wrestling won't be a factor since Prates doesn't rely on takedowns. Paul thinks Prates will land bigger shots and either finish or win a decision.

"Aprates is a guy who's, you know, obviously exposed by Gary to a degree, but is, you know, still kind of on the rise, whereas I think we've seen the best of uh of Leon Edwards, too."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

The Guru picks Carlos Prates to KO Leon Edwards in round one or two. He cites Edwards' suspect chin, having been wobbled by Nate Diaz and Belal Muhammad, and believes Prates' power and timing will be too much. He notes that Edwards' movement and range management may not be enough to avoid Prates' left hand. The Guru expects a dramatic finish.

KO in round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with Carlos Pratess, man. I think Protes is going to chin him."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Zane also picks Prates, influenced by Edwards' apparent loss of enjoyment and tendency to become passive. He notes that Prates' pressure and power could catch Edwards, but Edwards' wrestling is a threat. He mentions the closed stance matchup favors Prates' comfort.

Same odds commentary.
"I'm making the same pick. It's definitely informed by Leon, seeming like he will continue to stubbornly continue to do this, but doesn't really enjoy it anymore."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 5 VS Catchweight (157.2 lb) Completed
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoît Saint Denis W

17-3
KO R1 0:16

Beneil Dariush

Moneyline
Caesars +170
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
BetMGM +800
Decision
BetRivers +500

Benoît Saint Denis

Moneyline
BetWay -188
KO/TKO
FanDuel +165
Submission
BetMGM +650
Decision
BetMGM +460
Fighter Stats

Beneil Dariush

Age37
Height5' 10"
Reach72.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Benoît Saint Denis

Age30
Height5' 11"
Reach73"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Beneil Dariush

3.78SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
2.62SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
2.11TD Avg
38.0%TD Acc.
82.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Benoît Saint Denis

5.62SLpM
58.0%Str. Acc.
4.09SApM
42.0%Str. Def.
4.19TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
1.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing his relentless pressure and wrestling. He believes Beneil Dariush is aging and was sloppy in his last fight. Despite Dariush's scrambling skills, Angelo thinks BSD's grit and non-stop pace will overcome technique. He notes he would have picked Dariush a few years ago.

"I have to go with Benois. I think good old-fashioned grit will beat just technique."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing Beneil Dariush's compromised chin. He notes Dariush has been knocked out in three of his last four fights, including by Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan, and was dropped by Hakeem Dawodu. Brady believes Saint Denis can take a punch better at this stage and predicts a first-round knockout in a war. He acknowledges Dariush's elite anti-grappling and skills but says the chin is the deciding factor.

first round knockout
"I'm going to say he's going to knock him out in the first round. It's going to be Ben Saint Anthony by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Cody picks Dariush despite the risk of a first-round knockout. He notes that Dariush has excellent grappling and cardio, and that Saint Denis tends to fade and take damage in longer fights. Cody believes that if Dariush survives the early onslaught, he can take over with his wrestling and pressure. He suggests a live bet if Dariush gets through the first round.

"if he does not get KO'd stiff in the first round, he's live. He's live to win this fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Connor picks Dariush confidently, citing his superior grappling and scrambling. He notes that Saint Denis relies on aggression and faith in his conditioning, but Dariush is a fluid control grappler who will stay ahead in scrambles. He warns that Dariush could lose if knocked out, but in any grappling exchange, Dariush wins.

Odds: Dariush opened +250, now +160; Saint Denis opened -300, now -185. Connor comments that the line movement is age-based.
"I got to pick Dariouche. It's fairly simple. Same. Yep. If he loses, it's because he gets knocked out. If there's any grappling at all, he's very likely to win."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Daniel thinks Dariush is the better overall fighter but his chin is suspect, and Saint Denis has the power and pressure to test it. He notes that Saint Denis is riding high on confidence after dismantling Ruffy, while Dariush looks a fight or two away from retirement. He leans toward Saint Denis finding a knockout, but acknowledges Dariush has paths to victory if he can avoid getting hit clean.

"I kind of lean Santi to find that kill shot, but if he doesn't, this fight could play out in a variety of ways."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Lucrative James picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by knockout, despite acknowledging Dariush's superior scrambling and counter-grappling. He believes Dariush's durability is a major concern, as he has been knocked out multiple times and is getting older. He thinks BSD's relentless pressure and power will eventually catch Dariush on the feet, even if he struggles to secure takedowns. He predicts a KO victory for BSD, possibly via head kick or in a transition.

by KO
"I got Benois Denv knockout here, man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Dariush is the better fighter. Saint Denis struggles to get grappling going. Dariush scrambles out of bad positions, keeps Saint Denis on the defensive, and finds a finish in the second or third round.

finish in the second or third round
"I think Santine will struggle to get his grappling going and ultimately that should lead to Daruse scrambling out of bad positions, keeping Sandi on the defensive and eventually finding a finish in the second or third round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Paul agrees with Cody, preferring to watch the first round before betting due to the knockout risk. He notes that Saint Denis has gassed in past fights and that Dariush's takedown defense is excellent. Paul thinks that if Dariush can avoid early trouble, he can outwork Saint Denis and potentially submit him. He is not fully confident but leans towards Dariush.

"I'd prefer because of the first round knockout risk that is with every single Dariush fight to kind of just watch see how it plays out a little bit."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

The Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by TKO in round two. He believes Saint Denis' pressure, clinch work, and body shots will wear down Dariush, who may struggle with the pace. He notes that both are evenly matched on the ground, but Saint Denis has a higher KO percentage and momentum. The Guru expects Saint Denis to break Dariush against the cage.

TKO in round 2
"I'm going to go with Benois. I'm going to go with Benoir. I think his clinch work will be good here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Dariush. He emphasizes that Saint Denis' aggressive, throw-himself-in style will not work against Dariush's relaxed, anticipatory grappling. He notes that Saint Denis lost to Moicano by being overwhelmed, and Dariush is a better grappler than Moicano.

Same odds commentary.
"I think you just can't rely on that kind of attitude against Benoit Dariouche. You have to go out there and be ready to pick him off and make him pay for his own overaggression."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Bo Nickal

Bo Nickal W

8-1
KO R3 2:24
Fight 6 VS Middleweight Completed

Bo Nickal

Moneyline
BetMGM -225
KO/TKO
BetMGM +325
Submission
Caesars +1000
Decision
FanDuel +140

Rodolfo Vieira

Moneyline
Caesars +195
KO/TKO
FanDuel +2000
Submission
BetMGM +575
Decision
BetRivers +600
Fighter Stats

Bo Nickal

Age30
Height6' 1"
Reach76.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Rodolfo Vieira

Age36
Height6' 0"
Reach73.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Bo Nickal

3.35SLpM
61.0%Str. Acc.
2.07SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
3.1TD Avg
55.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
2.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Rodolfo Vieira

3.55SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
4.38SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
2.7TD Avg
21.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo picks Bo Nickal but is hesitant due to the high price (-220) and Nickal's recent loss. He believes Nickal will play it safe, use his scrambling skills, and win a decision. He thinks the opening odds (Nickal as underdog) were more accurate. He expects a boring fight and does not bet.

"I'm going to pick Bo here because I think what he's going to do is play it safe... I don't think I'm going to touch these minus 220 odds though."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady picks Bo Nickal but is unenthusiastic, calling it the worst fight on the card. He expects a boring decision, similar to Nickal's fight with Paul Craig, where Nickal avoided grappling and struck for 15 minutes. Brady believes Nickal can dictate where the fight takes place but thinks both fighters may prefer to strike, leading to a sloppy decision. He predicts Nickal wins a 'greasy decision' with the crowd behind him.

decision
"I'm going to say Bo Nickel wins a greasy decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Cody picks Vieira as a value underdog. He notes that Bo Nickal's striking has looked poor in recent fights and that he may be hesitant to wrestle Vieira due to his BJJ. Cody believes that if the fight stays on the feet, Vieira can out-strike Nickal, and if it goes to the ground, Vieira has the advantage. He also speculates that the UFC may be setting Nickal up to fail.

"Too much value there. PRP pick. PRP pick Rodolfo Vieira. Don't love it. I really don't, but there's some serious value there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Connor also picks Vieira but is hesitant, agreeing with Zane that the fight is a coin flip. He notes that both fighters have shown they can melt down, and expects a staring contest. Connor mentions that Vieira has a jab but Bo Nickal is southpaw, which could lead to a miserable fight.

Odds: Vieira opened +140, jumped to +175, currently +194. Connor says 'I think it's likely to be bad and decisive'.
"I'm still going to pick Vera in that fight, but yeah, it could, it could be a real coin flip."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Daniel sees this as Nickal's fight to lose, as he has the wrestling to neutralize Vieira's jiu-jitsu and the athleticism to improve rapidly. However, he is cautious because Nickal looked broken in his last fight and needs to show he has rebounded. He picks Nickal but plans to watch and learn rather than bet heavily.

"As a pure pick, I'm going to take Bo Nickel, but I'm going to sit back and relax and enjoy the show."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Lucrative James picks Bo Nickal to win by decision, but with low confidence after Nickal's poor performance against Paul Craig. He believes Nickal has better wrestling and striking, and can defend Vieira's takedowns and submissions. He expects Nickal to use his athleticism to control the fight on the feet and avoid danger on the ground. He predicts a decision win for Nickal.

by decision
"I'm going to pick Bo Nickel here. I'm going to pick Bickel via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Nickal lands bigger shots on the feet, stuffs Vieira's takedowns, and punishes him with enough volume to win on the scorecards. Vieira won't step on the gas like Paul Craig did.

"I expect Nickel to land bigger shots on the feet, stuff the takedowns of Vieiraa and punish him with enough volume to end up winning this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that he already bet Vieira at plus odds. He points out that Nickal's striking has been exposed and that Vieira is a live underdog. Paul thinks that even if the fight is a close striking affair, Vieira has a chance to win a decision. He is comfortable with the value and believes it's a good betting spot.

"I already bet it. Bet it like plus 205."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The Guru hesitantly picks Bo Nickal to win a close 29-28 decision. He notes that Nickal has learned from his loss to Dolidze and should be able to outpoint Vieira, who lacks finishing threat on the feet and has cardio issues. However, he acknowledges Vieira's submission threat and the possibility of a grappling exchange. The Guru expects a low-action striking match.

"I'm going to go bow nickel, though. I am going to go bow nickel. I think he'll figure out Rodo Vieiraa."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Zane picks Vieira but is hesitant, noting the fight is entirely dependent on whether Vieira can get out of his own head. He highlights that both fighters have similar problems with inexperience and mental fragility, and expects a bad fight. Zane thinks it's a coin flip and would be happy with even odds.

Odds: Vieira opened +140, jumped to +175, currently +194. Zane says 'I would be happy as to this was at dead, even odds'.
"I have to pick it off over here. Same. But if he doesn't show up, like if he gets in his own head about this fight, then it could be very touch and go."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 7 VS Middleweight Completed
Gregory Rodrigues

Gregory Rodrigues W

19-6
Decision R3 5:00

Roman Kopylov

Moneyline
Caesars +165
KO/TKO
BetMGM +255
Submission
BetMGM +4500
Decision
Caesars +700

Gregory Rodrigues

Moneyline
FanDuel -178
KO/TKO
BetRivers +260
Submission
FanDuel +450
Decision
BetMGM +350
Fighter Stats

Roman Kopylov

Age34
Height6' 0"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Gregory Rodrigues

Age34
Height6' 3"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Roman Kopylov

4.59SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
5.18SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
1.14TD Avg
47.0%TD Acc.
88.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Gregory Rodrigues

5.53SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
4.78SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.9TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his well-rounded skills, power, and BJJ black belt. He believes Rodrigues will use takedowns to control the fight, similar to his win over Christian Leroy Duncan. He notes Roman Kopylov is a good kickboxer but vulnerable to grappling. Angelo's only concern is Rodrigues' tendency to bleed easily.

"I think Gregory Rodriguez makes this a very tricky fight for Roman Copilov... I do think Gregory wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues, highlighting his elite jiu-jitsu and ground game, which he believes will be too much for Roman Kopylov, who has poor grappling. He notes Kopylov was submitted by a kickboxer and dominated on the ground by Albert Duraev. However, Brady worries about Rodrigues's tendency to stand and trade, given his questionable chin (four knockout losses). He predicts a first-round submission if Rodrigues uses his grappling, but acknowledges the risk of a knockout loss if he brawls.

first round submission
"I'm going to go Rodriguez first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Cody picks Rodrigues, citing his power, wrestling, and aggression. He notes that Kopylov has struggled against grapplers and has poor takedown defense. Cody believes that Rodrigues will pressure Kopylov, take him down, and either finish or win a decision. He also mentions that Rodrigues has looked good in recent fights and is a reliable favorite.

"I like Robocop Rodrigues."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor picks Kopylov but calls it a coin flip. He notes that Kopylov is a sharpshooter who can target all levels and that Rodrigues gives openings for low kicks and head kicks. However, he acknowledges that Rodrigues has excellent wrestling and top game, and that Kopylov's only way to stop the pressure is to kill Rodrigues on the counter.

Odds: Kopylov opened -110, currently +165. Connor says 'it's a coin flip for me'.
"I think just to keep it interesting, I'll take Kapilov."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel favors Rodrigues despite disliking his unsportsmanlike follow-up punch in his last fight. He believes Rodrigues has more ways to win, with power in his hands and world-class jiu-jitsu, while Kopylov has been submitted by lesser grapplers. He also questions Kopylov's chin and ability to handle pressure.

"I do favor Hoboc in this one, man. I think he's got more ways to win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Lucrative James picks Roman Kopylov to win by knockout, going against the grain. He believes Kopylov's fast boxing and head kicks can exploit Rodrigues' poor chin and cardio. He notes Rodrigues' grappling advantage but thinks Kopylov's takedown defense will hold up early, allowing him to land a knockout. He acknowledges this is a risky pick but sees value in the underdog.

by KO
"Roman Copilov wins this fight. Brutal knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Rodriguez is surprisingly not a bigger favorite. He walks Kopylov down like Paulo Costa did, throws big shots, gets his respect, and closes the show with a knockout.

knockout
"I think Hodriguez will do exactly what Paulo Costa did. Walk Copilov down, throw big shots, get his respect, and I think this time actually Rodriguez can close the show and win this fight by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt with power and that Kopylov has gassed when taken down. He points out that Kopylov's last win was against a faded Paulo Costa and that he has been submitted by grapplers. Paul thinks Rodrigues will control the fight and win by decision or TKO.

"if G Rod is controlling you and he's forcing the issue, well, you know what's even more tiring than trying to hold somebody down."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by TKO in round one or two. He highlights Rodrigues' pressure, power, and body work, which should overwhelm Kopylov, who has shown vulnerability to pressure. Kopylov's long torso makes him susceptible to body shots, and Rodrigues' recent KO win over Jack Hermansson shows his form. The Guru expects an early finish.

TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with Gregory Rodriguez backing up Roman Copilov and finishing him in round one or two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Rodrigues, citing his relentless pressure and power. He acknowledges that Kopylov is a sharpshooter who can stop Rodrigues with counters, but believes Rodrigues will likely get the driver's seat and crush Kopylov. Zane notes that Kopylov falls apart when pressured hard enough.

Odds: Rodrigues opened -110, currently -190. Kopylov opened -110, jumped to +135, currently +165.
"I got to take Rodriguez in that fight, you know?"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Erin Blanchfield

Erin Blanchfield W

14-2
Submission R2 4:44
Fight 8 VS Women's Flyweight Completed

Erin Blanchfield

Moneyline
FanDuel -250
KO/TKO
Caesars +1800
Submission
BetMGM +575
Decision
FanDuel -125

Tracy Cortez

Moneyline
Caesars +230
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1600
Submission
Caesars +2200
Decision
BetMGM +320
Fighter Stats

Erin Blanchfield

Age27
Height5' 4"
Reach66.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Tracy Cortez

Age32
Height5' 5"
Reach65.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Erin Blanchfield

5.24SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
4.25SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
1.96TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
78.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Tracy Cortez

3.86SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.01SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
2.15TD Avg
46.0%TD Acc.
59.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Angelo picks Erin Blanchfield despite considering Tracy Cortez's wrestling. He values Blanchfield's relentless pressure and scrambling ability. He notes Cortez is often at events and may not be training enough. He suggests over 2.5 rounds and a plus 3.5 bet on Cortez as possibilities.

over 2.5 rounds, plus 3.5 on Cortez
"I'm going to pick Aaron Blanchfield. Tracy could absolutely get the takedowns here and work... Over two and a half is probably solid."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Big Brady leans Erin Blanchfield, believing her grappling advantage will be decisive. He notes Tracy Cortez has only 62% takedown defense and has been taken down multiple times by Rose Namajunas and others. Brady thinks Blanchfield's top control and submission skills are superior once the fight hits the ground, and predicts a decision win. He acknowledges the line is wide and a case can be made for Cortez.

decision
"I'm going to lean Blanchfield to get the done get it done by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Cody picks Blanchfield, noting that she has improved significantly since their first fight six years ago, especially her striking. He points out that Cortez has not evolved and has been inactive. Cody believes Blanchfield's wrestling and pressure will be too much, and she will win by decision. He also mentions that Blanchfield is younger and more motivated.

Blanchfield by decision
"Blanchfield's likely to take her down and give her all types of problems. And if she doesn't take her down, she's going to come forward, she's going to throw punches, she's going to try to outwork her."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Connor also leans toward Cortez, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Cortez is an inch taller than Blanchfield, which is surprising, and that Blanchfield's aggressive style may lead to her giving things away. He thinks Cortez can win out scrambles and that Blanchfield's one-size-fits-all approach may not work.

Odds: Cortez opened +190, currently +200.
"I'm going to go Cortez with you."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel sees Blanchfield as the more evolved fighter since their first fight, with relentless pressure and a never-quit attitude. He notes that Cortez struggles when she is the nail, while Blanchfield has shown she can overcome adversity. He expects Blanchfield to avenge her loss and continue her rise.

"I'm still going to come out here and pick Aaron Blanchfield to win the rematch and avenge the loss against Tracy Cortez."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Lucrative James picks Erin Blanchfield to win, citing her superior grappling and submission skills. He believes Cortez will engage in wrestling, which plays into Blanchfield's strengths, as she is a better MMA grappler and dangerous from top position. He notes Blanchfield's ability to submit opponents from any position, as seen in her previous win over Cortez. He expects Blanchfield to win via submission or dominant decision.

"I'm going to pick Aaron Blanchfield to get the win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Blanchfield lands bigger shots on the feet and eventually lands takedowns for control and BJJ superiority. Cortez may be the better wrestler on paper, but Blanchfield gets her hand raised on the scorecards.

"I expect Blanchfield to get her hand raised as I think she'll be able to land bigger shots on the feet and eventually land those takedowns where she can get some good control and utilize her BJJ superiority."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Blanchfield's striking has improved the most. He notes that Cortez's takedown defense is not great and that Blanchfield will likely control the fight. Paul also mentions that Blanchfield has a home-field advantage and that the fight will likely go to decision. He likes the over 2.5 rounds prop.

over 2.5 rounds
"Blanchfield by decision minus 133 is not horrible."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The Guru picks Erin Blanchfield to win by 29-28 decision. He believes Blanchfield's grappling and physicality will be decisive, though she may lose the first round. He criticizes Cortez's focus on appearance (fake eyelashes) and notes Blanchfield's win over Rose Namajunas as a better benchmark. Blanchfield should mix in takedowns and control later rounds.

"I'm gonna go with Blanchfield getting this one done. I'm going to say that Blanchfield wins this by 2928 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Zane leans toward Cortez, noting that Cortez has a win over Blanchfield and is a very good scrambler and grappler. He thinks Blanchfield's aggressive style might play into Cortez's hands, as Cortez is comfortable in scrambles. However, he admits it's hard to get a grip on Cortez and that she is still developing.

Odds: Cortez opened +190, currently +200. Blanchfield opened -225, currently -235.
"I'm leaning Cortez."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 9 VS Featherweight Completed
Ethyn Ewing

Ethyn Ewing W

10-2
Decision R3 5:00

Malcolm Wellmaker

Moneyline
FanDuel -460
KO/TKO
FanDuel -155
Submission
BetMGM +800
Decision
FanDuel +600

Ethyn Ewing

Moneyline
BetRivers +410
KO/TKO
BetMGM +850
Submission
BetMGM +2400
Decision
BetMGM +1300
Fighter Stats

Malcolm Wellmaker

Age32
Height5' 10"
Reach71.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Ethyn Ewing

Age30
Height5' 6"
Reach69"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Malcolm Wellmaker

5.8SLpM
56.0%Str. Acc.
5.39SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
57.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Ethyn Ewing

7.44SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
4.53SApM
63.0%Str. Def.
1.68TD Avg
60.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (0)

No expert picks captured for this fight yet.

Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Kyle Daukaus

Kyle Daukaus W

17-4
Submission R1 0:50
Fight 10 VS Middleweight Completed

Kyle Daukaus

Moneyline
FanDuel -460
KO/TKO
BetMGM +175
Submission
FanDuel +290
Decision
FanDuel +290

Gerald Meerschaert

Moneyline
Caesars +400
KO/TKO
Caesars +1600
Submission
BetMGM +1100
Decision
BetMGM +1000
Fighter Stats

Kyle Daukaus

Age33
Height6' 3"
Reach76.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Gerald Meerschaert

Age38
Height6' 1"
Reach77.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Kyle Daukaus

3.32SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
2.9SApM
42.0%Str. Def.
2.08TD Avg
25.0%TD Acc.
82.0%TD Def.
2.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Gerald Meerschaert

3.01SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
3.52SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
1.82TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
42.0%TD Def.
1.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Angelo picks Kyle Daukaus, noting that Gerald Meerschaert has poor takedown accuracy and hasn't taken anyone down in three fights. Daukaus is a good grappler with length and solid takedown defense. Angelo is confident but questions the -325 odds, suggesting Daukaus' last win was against a distracted opponent.

"Kyle's going to be the pick, but I hate that this dude could even be in the same room as these odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus, noting his improved striking and power since being cut from the UFC. He criticizes Gerald Meerschaert's chin as 'dust' and his recent poor performances, including gassing out badly. Brady believes Daukaus is the better grappler and striker at this point and predicts a first-round knockout, referencing Daukaus's own claim that he will knock out Meerschaert.

first round knockout
"I'm going to go Kyle Dawkins to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Meerschaert is on a losing streak and has been knocked out multiple times. He points out that Daukaus is bigger and has better striking. Cody thinks Daukaus will finish the fight inside the distance, possibly by TKO in the first round. He is confident in the pick.

inside the distance by TKO
"Daukaus is the guy to put that nail in the coffin, so inside the distance by TKO possibly in the first round."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Connor also picks Daukaus, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Meerschaert has lost a step and that Daukaus showed aggression and certainty in his last fight. However, he warns that Daukaus might get overly ambitious and get submitted, but overall trusts Daukaus to win.

Odds: Daukaus opened -260, currently -500.
"I think it's possible we might be getting a Kyle Dawkins, a young veteran run here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Daniel believes Daukaus is on a resurgence with newfound confidence and power, as shown in his knockout of Michelle Pereira. He expects Daukaus to feast on an aging Meerschaert, who has been finished in recent fights. He predicts a first-round knockout for Daukaus.

first round knockout
"I think that DACA is going to come out here and feast on the carcass again. And so for that reason, I'm going to go Kyle Dawkins to come out here and actually get a first round knockout."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Lucrative James picks Kyle Daukaus to win, stating that Gerald Meerschaert is washed and Daukaus has better striking and grappling. He notes Daukaus' resurgence after a first-round KO in his return fight, and believes his takedown defense and top control will neutralize Meerschaert's submission threats. He predicts a finish or clear decision for Daukaus.

"I think Doras is going to win this one, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Daukaus is a better and younger version of Meerschaert. He can win whichever way he chooses, whether by knockout or submission. He wins inside the distance.

inside the distance
"I think Dawis can pretty much win this fight whichever way he chooses. ... I'm just going to go with the broad finishing method here and say inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Paul picks Daukaus, citing his size, striking, and submission defense. He notes that Meerschaert has poor durability and has been knocked out frequently. Paul believes Daukaus will win by TKO, possibly in the first round. He also mentions that Daukaus has looked good on the regional scene and is a big middleweight.

Daukaus by KO +215
"Daukaus by KO plus 215. I I just I just hit submit."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The Guru picks Kyle Daukaus to win by TKO in round two. He notes that Gerald Meerschaert is on a three-fight losing streak and aging, while Daukaus is coming into his prime with improved striking and grappling. Daukaus' clinch work and power should be too much for Meerschaert, who may no longer have the craftiness to pull off a submission.

TKO in round 2
"I'll say TKO win in round two for Dorcas. I reckon he'll get a finish here over Mot."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Zane picks Daukaus confidently, noting that Meerschaert has lost a step and never had much physical edge. He thinks Daukaus has surprisingly fast hands and is too willing to grapple, but that he can be fast and slick. He believes Daukaus might be starting a veteran run and that Meerschaert is past his prime.

Odds: Daukaus opened -260, currently -500. Meerschaert opened +220, currently +385.
"I got to pick that cause he's always had surprisingly fast hands."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Pat Sabatini

Pat Sabatini W

22-5
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 11 VS Featherweight Completed

Pat Sabatini

Moneyline
Caesars -115
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1700
Submission
FanDuel +600
Decision
BetMGM +170

Chepe Mariscal

Moneyline
FanDuel +100
KO/TKO
BetMGM +370
Submission
Caesars +1000
Decision
FanDuel +330
Fighter Stats

Pat Sabatini

Age35
Height5' 8"
Reach70.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Chepe Mariscal

Age33
Height5' 7"
Reach69.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Pat Sabatini

1.69SLpM
59.0%Str. Acc.
1.09SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
4.48TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
50.0%TD Def.
1.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Chepe Mariscal

4.14SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
2.66SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
2.34TD Avg
39.0%TD Acc.
59.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal, praising his pressure, wrestling, and scrambling ability. He believes Chepe is the better striker and wrestler, and that Pat Sabatini's striking is stiff and he is chinny. Angelo is confident and placed a bet at -113, expecting the line to expand.

bet at -113 odds
"Chepee is the pick. And right off the rip, we've got a pretty affordable money line."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Big Brady picks Chepe Mariscal as a slight underdog, acknowledging a clear path for Sabatini via wrestling but favoring Mariscal's striking power. He notes Sabatini's questionable chin, having been knocked out by Damon Jackson and Diego Lopez, and believes Mariscal can exploit that. Brady sees Mariscal's judo as helpful in getting back to his feet and predicts a second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"Give me Chepe Mariscal to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Cody picks Sabatini, noting that his grappling is elite and that Mariscal has been taken down by everyone. He believes Sabatini has learned from his knockout losses and will stick to wrestling. Cody thinks Sabatini can grind out a decision or possibly submit Mariscal. He is not fully confident but sees the path.

"I actually have him going Pat Sabatini."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Connor also picks Mariscal, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Mariscal is one of the most fluidly offensively minded fighters and that Sabatini needs to dominate and stop the fight from happening, which he can't do against Mariscal. He thinks Mariscal's style is a nightmare for Sabatini.

Odds: Mariscal opened -200, currently -130? Connor says 'I agreed'.
"I agreed."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Daniel sees this as a close fight and picks the underdog Mariscal to win again. He notes that Sabatini's chin is suspect and Mariscal's judo and wild style could keep the fight standing, where Sabatini is vulnerable. He expects a back-and-forth scrap that could end in a knockout for Mariscal.

"I'm going to take the underdog chep Marisk to beat Pat Sabatini for a second time."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Lucrative James picks Pat Sabatini to win, believing his elite grappling and top control will be too much for Mariscal. He notes Sabatini's improved control since their first fight and Mariscal's tendency to be taken down. He expects Sabatini to secure takedowns and control the fight on the ground, possibly winning by submission or decision.

"I'm picking Patrick Sabatini to get his revenge and win this fight as the underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Mariscal makes it look more dominant than their first fight. He scrambles and stays ahead of Sabatini, then overwhelms him on the feet leading to a TKO victory.

TKO victory
"I expect him to make it look more dominant while he scrambles and stays ahead of the game with Sabatini and then eventually overwhelms Sabatini on the feet leading to a TKO victory for Jeep Mariscal."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul leans towards Mariscal, noting that he is a better striker and has knockout power. He points out that Sabatini has been knocked out when he tries to strike. Paul thinks Mariscal could win by knockout if he keeps the fight standing. However, he acknowledges the risk of Sabatini's grappling and is not fully committed.

Chepe by knockout (suggested at +370)
"Chepe by knockout if you get a good price on it, 100% on the table."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The Guru picks Chepe Mariscal, highlighting his pressure, volume, chin, and scrambling ability. He believes Mariscal's stocky frame will make him hard to hold down for Sabatini, who relies on control. The Guru also notes that judging trends may favor Mariscal if the fight is close. He predicts a late finish or decision win for Mariscal.

"I'm going to go with Shet Mariscal here. Um, I actually might take him by finish for once."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Zane picks Mariscal, noting that Mariscal is an excellent scrambler who never stops fighting and that Sabatini struggles to lock him down. He thinks the fight will be uncomfortable for Sabatini because Mariscal is fluid and creative in scrambles. He also notes that Mariscal has never been submitted and has a good chin.

Odds: Mariscal opened -200, currently +110? Actually, transcript says 'Marasco is an underdog mind open a minus 200 currently plus one 10' but then '17, you the favorite, but a plus one 70 currently minus one 30' - likely confusion. Based on context, Mariscal is favorite at -130. Zane says 'I don't understand that at all' about the odds.
"I still think it's going to be a fight that it's just fundamentally uncomfortable for Sabatini because it's very difficult to lock Chepe Marasco down and keep him out of the fight."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 12 VS Women's Strawweight Completed
Fatima Kline

Fatima Kline W

9-1
Decision R3 5:00

Angela Hill

Moneyline
Caesars +400
KO/TKO
Caesars +2500
Submission
Caesars +2800
Decision
BetMGM +510

Fatima Kline

Moneyline
BetRivers -500
KO/TKO
BetMGM +950
Submission
FanDuel +550
Decision
FanDuel -170
Fighter Stats

Angela Hill

Age41
Height5' 3"
Reach64.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Fatima Kline

Age25
Height5' 6"
Reach67.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Angela Hill

5.37SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
5.02SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
0.75TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Fatima Kline

5.01SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
2.71SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
2.02TD Avg
58.0%TD Acc.
50.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Angelo picks Angela Hill despite her age (40), believing she is more technical and durable than Fatima Kline. He criticizes Kline's takedown attempts and notes her wins are over fighters no longer in the UFC. He is hesitant and considers a plus 3.5 round bet but does not place a moneyline bet.

considering plus 3.5 rounds bet
"I'm going with Angela Hill. And I'm a coward... I don't really have the nuts to bet on Angela, but I might do a plus three and a half."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Fatima Kline

Big Brady picks Fatima Kline, citing her youth (15 years younger) and Angela Hill's recent decline. He notes Hill looked poor in her last four fights and is slowing down at age 40. Brady believes Kline has a big advantage on the ground with vicious ground and pound and a good submission game, though he predicts a decision win. He mentions Kline trains with Erin Blanchfield and expects her to get the fight to the mat.

decision
"I do think it's Klein Klein by decision, but I think she gets it done here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Fatima Kline

Cody picks Kline, citing her youth, speed, and well-rounded skills. He notes that Hill is slowing down at 41 and that Kline has good grappling and striking. Cody believes Kline can outstrike Hill or take her down. He mentions that Hill's cardio is fading and that Kline is the logical pick.

"Fatima Cline probably finds a way to to get her hand raised in this one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Fatima Kline

Connor also picks Kline, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Hill may be losing a step and that Kline is a very good grappler who can dominate from winning positions. He thinks Kline's youth and versatility give her the edge, but acknowledges Hill is still a tough test.

Odds: Kline opened -400, currently -550.
"Yeah, I'll go with you."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Fatima Kline

Daniel sees a clear mismatch, with Hill at 40 years old and on the decline, while Kline is a young, physical, and well-rounded prospect. He expects Kline to dominate and make a statement, similar to how Denise Gomes beat Tecia Torres.

"I think Klein's going to come out here, dominate this fight, and make a statement."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Fatima Kline

Lucrative James picks Fatima Kline to win, citing her youth, full-time training, and well-rounded skills. He believes Hill is past her prime and struggles from bottom position, while Kline has great striking and grappling. He expects Kline to dominate on the feet and on the ground, possibly winning by decision or late submission.

"I'm taking Fatima Climb in this one, boys. Pretty confident as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Fatima Kline

Kline lands bigger shots against Hill, eventually lands takedowns, and grinds Hill out from top position. She gets her hand raised on the scorecards.

"I do like me some Klein here as I think she can land bigger shots against Hill, but eventually land takedowns and really grind Hill out from that top position."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Fatima Kline

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that women's favorites have been hitting at a high rate. He points out that Hill is past her prime and that Kline is younger, faster, and stronger. Paul thinks Kline will win by decision or TKO. He is confident in the pick and mentions that he has been backing favorites successfully.

"It's It's It's Cline for me as well. Younger, faster, stronger probably at this stage in her career."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Fatima Kline

The Guru picks Fatima Kline, citing her size, range, and finishing ability. He notes that Angela Hill is aging and has been less effective recently, with losses to Tabatha Ricci and Luana Pinheiro. Kline has shown consistent finishing ability and should be able to outmuscle Hill. The Guru predicts a decision win for Kline, possibly with a late finish.

"I'm going with Fatima Mlelene. She's bigger. She's rangier. That's not the only reason. She's actually pretty decent as well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Fatima Kline

Zane picks Kline, noting that Hill may be losing athleticism and that Kline is younger and more capable everywhere. He acknowledges that Hill is a tough veteran and a great clinch fighter, but thinks Kline's grappling and scrambling could be too much. He calls the odds too wide.

Odds: Kline opened -400, currently -550. Hill opened +300, currently +400. Zane says 'That's too wide'.
"I'm going to pick Cline."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Baisangur Susurkaev

Baisangur Susurkaev W

12-0
KO R3 1:38
Fight 13 VS Middleweight Completed

Baisangur Susurkaev

Moneyline
FanDuel -1000
KO/TKO
FanDuel -210
Submission
FanDuel +600
Decision
Caesars +600

Eric McConico

Moneyline
Caesars +800
KO/TKO
Caesars +1200
Submission
BetMGM +3500
Decision
FanDuel +2200
Fighter Stats

Baisangur Susurkaev

Age25
Height6' 2"
Reach79"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Eric McConico

Age36
Height6' 0"
Reach77.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Baisangur Susurkaev

4.56SLpM
59.0%Str. Acc.
3.78SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
2.76TD Avg
28.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Eric McConico

2.61SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.23SApM
46.0%Str. Def.
0.64TD Avg
100.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Baisangur Susurkaev

Angelo picks Baisangur Susurkaev, calling him a dangerous striker with power and confidence. He notes Susurkaev's takedown defense is solid and he is bigger, faster, and cleaner than Eric McConico. He expects Susurkaev to be a heavy favorite and would bet unless the odds are extreme.

"He is the pick and unless he's a minus 1000, I would expect to see some bets on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Baisangur Susurkaev

Big Brady is very confident in Baisangur Susurkaev, calling the fight a 'sanctioned murder'. He criticizes Eric McConico as one of the worst fighters on the roster, noting he doesn't throw strikes, has poor wrestling, and hates getting hit. Brady believes Susurkaev will finish McConico in the first round by knockout, as McConico has been knocked out in all three of his losses.

first round knockout
"I think he finishes him in round one. I think he's going to hit Mechanico. I think Meccanico is not going to like it, and I think he's going to keep hitting him until Mechanico looks for the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Baisangur Susurkaev

Cody picks Susurkaev, noting that McConico has shown no redeeming qualities in the UFC. He believes Susurkaev is a good prospect who will win by submission or TKO. Cody thinks the money line is too high to bet, but he likes props like inside the distance or submission. He is confident Susurkaev will win.

Susurkaev inside the distance, Susurkaev by submission
"Sidyk Kabaev inside the distance is a no-brainer."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Baisangur Susurkaev

Connor also picks Susurkaev, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Susurkaev is arrogant but not completely flabbergasted when the opponent has something for him, which is a good sign. He thinks McConico is not durable enough and that Susurkaev's attitude is easier to mold into greatness.

Odds: Susurkaev opened -600, currently -950.
"So this should just be a, a shit kicking."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Baisangur Susurkaev

Daniel is high on Susurkaev's potential, noting his flashy style, head movement, and ability to finish fights despite difficult circumstances. He expects Susurkaev to toy with McConico and get a dominant finish, possibly a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I think Susaya is going to come out here, clown this guy, tool this guy, and put on a very dominant performance and finish."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Baisangur Susurkaev

Lucrative James picks Baysangur Susurkaev to win by KO. He notes McConico fights on the back foot and has poor durability, while Susurkaev is aggressive and confident. He believes Susurkaev's pressure and power will overwhelm McConico, leading to a knockout. He acknowledges Susurkaev's own durability issues but thinks McConico's style is a favorable matchup.

by KO
"I'm gonna have to pick Susakaya via KO in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Baisangur Susurkaev

Susurkaev is sketchy to parlay at wide chalk odds, but he matches up well against McConico. He lands bigger, more damaging shots and eventually gets a knockout victory.

knockout victory
"I expect Cersakive to land the bigger, more damaging shots and eventually leading to that knockout victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Eric McConico

Paul picks McConico as a heavy underdog, citing value. He notes that Susurkaev has shown cardio issues and that McConico is durable. Paul admits he expects to lose but thinks the odds are worth a small bet. He believes McConico has a puncher's chance and that Susurkaev is not a sure thing.

"I touched some uh plus 700 this morning on Eric McConnel. And do I expect him to win the fight? No, I don't. But I do think that like Nice donation."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Baisangur Susurkaev

The Guru picks Baisangur Susurkaev to win by TKO in the second or third round. He praises Susurkaev's striking, range, and recent performance against Eric Nolan, noting his ability to mix in grappling. He criticizes McConico's inconsistent performances and believes Susurkaev's youth and activity will be decisive. The Guru expects McConico to be tough early but eventually get finished.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm going to go with Baang Guruskay. I'm going to take him to win this fight by TKO in the second or third round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Baisangur Susurkaev

Zane picks Susurkaev confidently, calling him an ideal MMA prospect with arrogance and aggression. He notes that Susurkaev passed a test against Eric Nolan by surviving when he got in trouble. He thinks McConico is a glass cannon who shouldn't be in the UFC and that this should be a 'shit kicking'.

Odds: Susurkaev opened -600, currently -950. McConico opened +450, currently +650.
"I will ride him to victory here."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 1 month, 1 week ago

GOOD SINGLE LEG balance from eric

Fight 14 VS Lightweight Completed
Matheus Camilo

Matheus Camilo W

10-3
Decision R3 5:00

Viacheslav Borshchev

Moneyline
Caesars +143
KO/TKO
BetMGM +295
Submission
FanDuel +2200
Decision
Caesars +550

Matheus Camilo

Moneyline
BetWay -163
KO/TKO
BetMGM +310
Submission
BetMGM +440
Decision
FanDuel +390
Fighter Stats

Viacheslav Borshchev

Age34
Height5' 11"
Reach69.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Matheus Camilo

Age25
Height5' 10"
Reach69"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Viacheslav Borshchev

5.1SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
4.46SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
43.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Matheus Camilo

2.19SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.25SApM
64.0%Str. Def.
4.43TD Avg
53.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Matheus Camilo

Angelo picks Matheus Camilo, noting that Viacheslav Borshchev has poor takedown defense (42%) and has been submitted recently. Camilo is aggressive, can strike and grapple, and has good cardio and power. Angelo is confident but only bets half a unit due to short notice and Camilo's chaotic style.

half unit bet at -155 odds
"I'm going to lean Camo here. I'm pretty confident in that pick. I actually put a half a unit bet on him at these minus 155 odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Matheus Camilo

Big Brady picks Matheus Camilo but expresses significant concerns about Camilo's cardio and heart after his UFC debut where he quit. He notes Camilo has power and submission skills but worries if he doesn't finish early. He criticizes Borshchev's takedown defense as the worst in the division and questions his durability, noting he was dropped by Chase Hooper. Brady ultimately leans Camilo by first-round submission, but admits if the fight extends, it could go badly for Camilo.

first round submission
"I'm going to say Camilo does get Slava out of there in the first round by submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Matheus Camilo

Cody picks Camilo (Gamrot), despite not being a fan. He notes that Borshchev has been taken down and outgrappled in recent fights, and that Gamrot has good submission grappling. Cody believes that if Gamrot can get takedowns, he can control and submit Borshchev. He is not fully confident but sees the stylistic advantage.

"I'm just going to plug my nose here and take Mateusz Gamrot and hope that he's made enough improvements to his game to make this thing look good."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Matheus Camilo

Connor also picks Camilo, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Borshchev's desire to be a better MMA fighter has made him worse overall, and that Camilo can happily overthrow and collapse into a takedown and then out-grapple Borshchev. He thinks Camilo is a good young prospect.

Odds: Camilo opened +110, currently -175.
"Yeah, these, these two fights were that both feature fighters that we probably do not need to see."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

Daniel is not confident in either fighter but leans toward Borshchev due to his experience and proven durability. He questions Camilo's cardio and chin after seeing him fade and tap in his UFC debut. He expects Borshchev to win if he can survive Camilo's early power.

"I think as a pure pick, I'm going to go with Slava just cuz he's proven a lot more to me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

Borshchev has a salty record but this is a winnable fight. He showcases grappling defense, works back to his feet after takedowns, and eventually knocks out Camilo within two and a half rounds.

knockout within two and a half rounds
"I think he stays out of those bad positions, works back to his feet, and eventually knocks out Matias Camilo within two and a half rounds."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

Paul leans towards Borshchev, citing his volume and power. He notes that Gamrot has looked poor in recent fights and has cardio issues. Paul thinks Borshchev can keep the fight standing and outwork Gamrot. However, he is not fully confident and acknowledges the grappling risk.

"I'm tempted to take Borshchev in this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Matheus Camilo

The Guru picks Matheus Camilo, citing his wrestling and grappling ability as key factors. He notes that Borshchev struggles against grapplers, as seen in losses to Chase Hooper and Terrence McKinney. Camilo's takedowns and submission threat should be decisive, and Borshchev is on a losing streak. The Guru expects Camilo to grapple his way to victory.

"I am going to go with Matteas Camilo here. The thing is this fight was kind of scrapped together short notice for the pair of them, but Matteas Camilo was supposed to fight a couple of cards ago."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Matheus Camilo

Zane picks Camilo, noting that Borshchev is actively getting worse as he tries to become a generalist. He thinks Camilo's bullish, aggressive striking and grappling will be too much, and that Borshchev's improved grappling has diminished his kickboxing. He also notes that Camilo's Achilles heel of throwing himself into guillotines won't be a problem against Borshchev.

Odds: Camilo opened +110, currently -175. Borshchev opened -130, currently +150.
"I think Camilo at least these two."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.


Cancelled Fights
Malcolm Wellmaker
Cancelled
Cody Haddon