Tom Nolan

The host picks Ziam, stating that he is the more technical striker and expects the fight to stay on the feet. He believes Ziam will land the better shots and be able to stay safe from Nolan's offense. He notes that Ziam has good takedown defense and uses his long limbs well defensively.

AJ picks Ziam by KO, citing his surgical kickboxing, improved Muay Thai, and veteran savvy. He views Nolan as a step behind in technical striking and believes Ziam's precision and counter-punching will be too much. AJ expects a finish, possibly by KO or club-and-sub, and notes Ziam's experience advantage.

Angelo picks Farès Ziam despite being a self-proclaimed hater. He acknowledges Ziam has evolved, becoming more aggressive and technical. He believes Ziam is cleaner and can fight at range or in the pocket, taking advantage of Tom Nolan's recklessness. He notes the fight is closer than the -300 odds suggest.

Big Brady picks Farès Ziam to win by decision. He notes that Ziam has improved rapidly, showing finishing ability and better grappling. He is not impressed with Tom Nolan, who got knocked out quickly and has been dropped. He thinks Ziam is the better fighter overall but doesn't love the price.

Tom Nolan is a young, maturing fighter with good takedown defense and volume. He will outwork Farès Ziam over three rounds, pushing the pace and landing more strikes. Nolan is likely a slight underdog but has a bright future.

Farès Ziam is picked to win inside the distance because he is the better MMA fighter with improved takedown defense and striking. Tom Nolan is hittable, has poor takedown accuracy (22%), and struggled against Charlie Campbell. Ziam's calculated striking and grappling upgrades make a finish likely, possibly by knockout or submission. The host agrees with the line.

Ziam is on a six-fight win streak against better competition, including wins over Mike Davis and Nazim Sadykhov. Nolan has been fed weaker opponents and hasn't faced anyone of Ziam's caliber. Ziam should outpoint him on the feet and win a decision.

Lucrative James picks Farès Ziam, citing his well-rounded skill set, improved fight IQ, and experience. He believes Ziam is one level above Tom Nolan in MMA and will win via decision, as Nolan is durable but likely outclassed over 15 minutes. He notes Nolan's X-factor finishing ability but thinks Ziam's technical striking and clinch game will be too much.

Angelo picks Tom Nolan over Charlie Campbell, believing Nolan's length, durability, and forward pressure will overcome Campbell's technical striking and leg kicks. He notes that Campbell's leg kicks require planting, which Nolan's movement will prevent. He expects a decision and suggests waiting for round line props.

Big Brady picks Charlie Campbell to win by first-round KO. He notes both fighters have power and questionable chins, but Campbell's killer instinct and Nolan's defensive flaws lead him to take the dog. He acknowledges it could go either way.

Cody takes Campbell as a dog, citing Nolan's chin issues and poor takedown defense. He notes Campbell has power and can mix in wrestling, and that Nolan's tall frame makes him vulnerable to leg kicks and overhands. He also mentions Nolan's weight cut to 155 may be a factor.

Connor also picks Nolan, agreeing that Campbell's power is inconsistent and that he doesn't set up his shots. He notes that Nolan is willing to scrap and will put pressure on Campbell, and that Campbell's tendency to fling himself into clinches will play into Nolan's hands. Connor thinks Nolan's chin is not great but good enough to withstand Campbell's power, and that Nolan's volume will win out.

James picks his friend Charlie Campbell, citing Campbell's striking ability and familiarity with Nolan from sparring. He believes Campbell has the power to knock out Nolan, who has been wobbled before. He is confident in Campbell's skills and rooting for him.

The host expects Nolan's power to come through. He thinks Nolan will counter Campbell effectively, land big shots, mix in takedowns and threaten with a front choke, but ultimately a knee or elbow will connect and put Campbell out clean.

The Guru picks Tom Nolan, citing his height and reach advantage over Charlie Campbell, as well as Nolan's momentum and development. He notes Campbell's inactivity and believes Nolan's diverse striking (spinning kicks, low kicks) will be too much. He predicts a second-round TKO.

Big Brady flipped his pick to Tom Nolan, citing Nolan's youth, size advantage, and the hometown factor in Australia. He notes that Borshchev has poor takedown defense and may struggle with the long flight. However, he questions Nolan's chin, as he was dropped by Victor Martinez. Brady thinks someone will get knocked out and predicts Nolan by second-round knockout, but he is not confident.

Angelo is extremely confident Tom Nolan will win, calling him a -1000 favorite who should win 98% of the time. He mocks the idea of betting on Nolan at those odds sarcastically, but clearly believes Nolan will steamroll Alex Reyes, who has been out for six years with health issues and looked stiff and chinny in his return. Angelo sees no path for Reyes and considers this a mismatch.

Big Brady picks Tom Nolan to win by first-round knockout. He criticizes the matchmaking, calling it a fight that shouldn't be sanctioned, as Alex Reyes has fought only three times in seven years and hasn't won in nearly seven years. He notes Nolan is 13 years younger, has a massive height advantage, and is a huge favorite. He believes Nolan will get a vicious first-round knockout, though he acknowledges Nolan is hittable and maybe chinny, but Reyes is unlikely to knock him out.

Cody believes Nolan will win easily but is concerned about his chin after being knocked out in his debut. He notes that Reyes is 37, has fought once in seven years, and has been knocked out in the first round in his last two fights. Cody expects a first-round finish but says the price is too high to bet.

Daniel Vreeland picks Tom Nolan to win by first-round knockout, noting that Reyes is a washed-up fighter who doesn't belong in the UFC. He acknowledges Nolan's defensive lapses but believes the matchup is predatory and that Nolan will finish early.

The host is confident in Nolan, citing his size, striking, and youth. He notes Nolan's knockout power and knee up the middle, while dismissing Reyes as past his prime and on a losing streak. He expects a first-round knockout, but warns against betting the heavy chalk due to volatility.

Paul agrees that Nolan should win easily, calling Reyes a 'freebie fight' for the UFC to build Nolan up. He notes Nolan's size and youth advantage, and that Reyes has been inactive and knocked out recently. Paul says Nolan is the pick but the price is ludicrous.

Angelo sees Tom Nolan as the more technical striker with length and pressure, while Victor Martinez is a fast, powerful boxer with poor kicks that can be caught. Nolan's takedown defense is a concern, but Martinez's BJJ defense and scramble skills are decent. Angelo picks Nolan but warns against including him in parlays due to his UFC debut and winless record.

Cody believes Nolan is a legitimate prospect with nasty striking and good size for the weight class. He notes Martinez has had only two fights in four years, was knocked out by Jordan Leavitt, and lacks durability. Cody thinks Nolan's speed, length, and cardio will be too much, and he expects Nolan to win, though he warns about Nolan's chin after the Mota loss.

Martinez was knocked out in his UFC debut and lacks power. Nolan has a significant height and reach advantage and will take a kick-heavy approach to chop away at Martinez's legs. Nolan should be more disciplined after his loss and can land knees up the middle as Martinez throws overhands. The line is wide but Nolan should win.

Paul acknowledges the big question marks around Nolan after his knockout loss to Nicholas Mota, but notes Martinez has been knocked out by Jordan Leavitt, who has little power. He sees Nolan as the better athlete with more tools, but the -475 price is too steep to get heavily involved. Paul will pick Nolan but not bet much.

Angelo picks Tom Nolan, believing he is the better striker with good accuracy, power, and pressure. He notes Nolan's poor takedown defense but thinks Motta won't exploit it as he averages zero takedowns per fight. He is slightly concerned about Motta's veteran savvy and explosive striking, and finds the -330 odds too steep for a UFC debutant. He plans to leave the fight alone rather than bet.

Big Brady acknowledges Tom Nolan's defensive flaws but believes Nikolas Motta's confidence and durability are shot. He notes Motta has been knocked out repeatedly and even struggled against low-output fighters. Brady expects Nolan's power and aggression to overwhelm Motta, predicting a first-round knockout.

Cody picks Nolan but is hesitant, noting that Motta is a shell of himself and has lost confidence. He acknowledges Nolan's inexperience and defensive flaws, but believes Motta's recent performances are so poor that Nolan can win. He says it's a trappy fight and he's not confident.

Daniel Vreeland picks Tom Nolan to win, but is hesitant due to Nolan's inexperience. He compares Nolan to a green Carlos Condit, praising his length and variety of strikes. Vreeland worries about Nolan making rookie mistakes against the experienced Motta, who has knockout power. He thinks Nolan can get a finish if he avoids Motta's big hooks.

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

Tom Nolan is an undefeated 23-year-old with a massive 6'3" frame and 76-inch reach, giving him a significant height and reach advantage over Motta. He earned his UFC contract by destroying Bogdan Grad on the Contender Series, showcasing his speed and power. Motta has durability issues and has been hurt in multiple fights, which Nolan can exploit. I expect Nolan to use his physical advantages to brutalize Motta and finish him inside the first round by KO. The minus 330 line is a bit steep for a debutant, but the matchup favors Nolan heavily.

Paul picks Nolan as a fade of Motta, noting that Motta's durability and confidence are gone. He says he has no intention of betting Motta and that Nolan is unproven but likely wins. He calls it a trappy fight and is not confident.