Nikolas Motta

Angelo picks Nazim Sadykhov, praising his striking and footwork. He notes that Nazim is a very good striker and has looked fantastic since his only loss. He acknowledges that Nikolas Motta is a good fighter with fast hands and power, but thinks Nazim is the slightly better striker and can win by finish. He warns that Motta is dangerous and the fight could get weird.

Big Brady is a big fan of Sadykhov in this matchup, citing durability as the key factor. He notes Sadykhov has never been knocked out, while Motta has been finished in all five losses. Brady thinks Sadykhov is more well-rounded, has better cardio, and a good ground game. He predicts Sadykhov will knock out Motta, possibly in the second round, but wouldn't be surprised by a submission.

Connor picks Sadykhov, agreeing that Motta's tendency to jump in with combinations and lack of distance management will be exploited by Sadykhov's countering and physicality. He notes that Sadykhov is not shallow in any area and is a tough, durable fighter who can take a shot and keep coming. He believes Motta's confidence issues, as seen against Ogden, will resurface against a strong opponent like Sadykhov.

The host is surprised Sadykhov is such a big favorite. He acknowledges Sadykhov's knockout power but thinks Motta has rounded out his game enough to eat big shots and put together a better body of work. He expects Motta to touch up Sadykhov, mix in takedowns, and win on the scorecards, noting Motta is live as a +340 underdog.

The MMA Guru picks Nazim Sadykhov, calling him 'really, really good'. He acknowledges Nikolas Motta's underrated skills and dangerous hooks but believes Sadykhov's defensive striking and pressure will prevail. He warns about Motta's lunging hooks but expects Sadykhov to adjust and finish late second or third round via TKO.

Angelo picks Nikolas Motta as an underdog, citing Maheshate's sloppiness and hittability. He believes Motta is faster, more accurate, and a better striker. He notes both are chinny but Motta's technical edge should prevail. He will sprinkle if the line widens to +200 or +250.

Big Brady picks Maheshate to win by second-round knockout. He notes Maheshate is seven years younger, has a height and reach advantage, and is the more active striker. He highlights that Nikolas Motta has been finished in all five of his losses, including four by knockout, while Maheshate has only one knockout loss. Brady believes both have knockout power but Maheshate has better durability.

Cody picks Maheshate, citing his power and youth. He notes that Motta has been knocked out multiple times and fades in later rounds. Maheshate's durability and improving cardio should allow him to win by knockout or decision. He expects a violent finish in Maheshate's favor.

Daniel Vreeland acknowledges Motta's devastating knockout power, noting 10 of his 14 wins are by KO. However, he believes Maheshate has more tools on the feet and can win a decision if he avoids getting knocked out. He leans towards Maheshate due to his youth, size, and more diverse striking, but admits Motta always has a puncher's chance.

Paul picks Maheshate but is hesitant, noting that both have power and can finish. He thinks Motta has more power but less heart, and Maheshate's volume and durability will be key. He suggests a live bet on Motta by KO early, but expects Maheshate to win if it goes past the first round.

Angelo picks Tom Nolan, believing he is the better striker with good accuracy, power, and pressure. He notes Nolan's poor takedown defense but thinks Motta won't exploit it as he averages zero takedowns per fight. He is slightly concerned about Motta's veteran savvy and explosive striking, and finds the -330 odds too steep for a UFC debutant. He plans to leave the fight alone rather than bet.

Big Brady acknowledges Tom Nolan's defensive flaws but believes Nikolas Motta's confidence and durability are shot. He notes Motta has been knocked out repeatedly and even struggled against low-output fighters. Brady expects Nolan's power and aggression to overwhelm Motta, predicting a first-round knockout.

Cody picks Nolan but is hesitant, noting that Motta is a shell of himself and has lost confidence. He acknowledges Nolan's inexperience and defensive flaws, but believes Motta's recent performances are so poor that Nolan can win. He says it's a trappy fight and he's not confident.

Daniel Vreeland picks Tom Nolan to win, but is hesitant due to Nolan's inexperience. He compares Nolan to a green Carlos Condit, praising his length and variety of strikes. Vreeland worries about Nolan making rookie mistakes against the experienced Motta, who has knockout power. He thinks Nolan can get a finish if he avoids Motta's big hooks.

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

Tom Nolan is an undefeated 23-year-old with a massive 6'3" frame and 76-inch reach, giving him a significant height and reach advantage over Motta. He earned his UFC contract by destroying Bogdan Grad on the Contender Series, showcasing his speed and power. Motta has durability issues and has been hurt in multiple fights, which Nolan can exploit. I expect Nolan to use his physical advantages to brutalize Motta and finish him inside the first round by KO. The minus 330 line is a bit steep for a debutant, but the matchup favors Nolan heavily.

Paul picks Nolan as a fade of Motta, noting that Motta's durability and confidence are gone. He says he has no intention of betting Motta and that Nolan is unproven but likely wins. He calls it a trappy fight and is not confident.

Angelo leans towards Nikolas Motta, expecting him to stay busy on the feet and keep Trey Ogden out of his wrestling rhythm. He notes Motta has solid takedown defense and explosive striking. He predicts a decision win for Motta.

Big Brady calls this a terrible fight, criticizing Trey Ogden for being a point striker who doesn't engage and has zero knockout wins. He thinks Motta has a questionable chin but will land big shots because Ogden will be running around. He predicts Motta wins by decision because he looks like he wants to be there, but he has little interest in the fight.

Cody picks Nikolas Motta, citing his superior striking and hand speed. He notes that Ogden has no knockout power and low volume. Motta's chin is a concern, but Ogden is unlikely to exploit it. Cody expects Motta to out-strike Ogden and win.

Ogden is a BJJ black belt who can implement his grappling pressure similar to his win over Zellhuber. He will walk Motta down, land kicks and punches, then change levels for takedowns. Motta has questionable durability and grappling acumen, having been knocked out recently and not tested on the ground. Ogden can find a submission victory.

Paul picks Motta, noting his better boxing and speed. He mentions Ogden's lack of power and inability to wrestle effectively. Paul thinks Motta can win by decision or TKO if he avoids getting hit clean.

Angelo picks Nikolas Motta as the underdog. He believes Motta is the more powerful striker and will avoid Torres's plum clinch and takedowns. Torres has a BJJ advantage but will struggle to get the fight to the ground. Angelo plans to bet Motta plus 3.5 points on the judge's scorecard, so a 29-28 loss still pays.

Big Brady picks Manuel Torres to win by first-round knockout. He describes Torres as a wild, relentless fighter who pushes a high pace and looks for finishes. Brady notes Torres has been finished twice by submission but has good durability and chin, while Motta has been knocked out multiple times. He believes Torres will make it his fight and overwhelm Motta with pressure and volume. Brady expects a chaotic car crash of a fight ending early in Torres' favor.

Cody is high on Torres, citing his finishing ability, good volume, durability, and multiple ways to win. He notes that Torres has a nasty submission game and striking, and that his only losses came via leg locks early in his career. Cody thinks Torres will overwhelm Motta with volume and eventually catch him, predicting a knockout after the over 1.5 rounds. He acknowledges Motta's durability is a question mark.

Connor picks Torres, citing his chin and comfort in the pocket. He notes that Motta is a sharp counter puncher but gets hit cleanly and lacks durability. Connor expects Torres to fire back when hit and eventually overwhelm Motta with power.

Daniel Levi picks Nikolas Motta, citing Motta's superior technical striking and counter boxing. He notes Torres's reckless striking leaves openings, and Motta can exploit them. He also mentions Motta's grappling as a potential path to tire Torres. He acknowledges the danger in the first few minutes but believes Motta can weather the storm and take over.

Torres has cardio issues and is mostly an early knockout threat. Motta is a better technical striker with more experience. If Motta survives the early onslaught, he can take over in the second round and find his own knockout. The fight likely ends inside the distance. Motta wins by knockout.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Torres puts on a high pace early and often, and that his significant strike totals are impressive. He questions whether Torres can maintain that pace if the fight extends, but given Motta's durability issues, he thinks Torres will get the job done. Paul likes the over 37.5 significant strikes for Torres on PrizePicks.

The MMA Guru picks Manuel Torres over Nikolas Motta, citing Torres as a good prospect with momentum and a reach advantage. He notes Motta was slept by Jim Miller and has questionable striking defense. He expects a stand-up fight favoring Torres, who has improved over a year off.

Angelo picks Motta because he believes Motta is the better striker, with explosive athleticism and solid takedown defense. He notes that VanCamp is a wild brawler with power but is kill-or-be-killed, and that Motta should be able to pick him apart if he keeps a tight guard. However, he acknowledges the odds are wide and VanCamp is a live underdog, making him hesitant.

Big Brady picks Nikolas Motta to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Motta has dynamite in his hands and hits very hard, while Cameron VanCamp has poor striking defense (29% striking defense) and keeps his hands down with his chin up. Brady believes Motta's power will be too much for VanCamp, who has been knocked out multiple times. He also mentions that VanCamp is cutting down to 155 for the first time in a while, which could affect his performance. Brady predicts a first-round knockout for Motta.

Cody thinks VanCamp's size and reach advantage at 155 will be key. He notes Motta's questionable chin and low volume. He says VanCamp looked good in his last fight despite the KO loss and can out-point Motta from distance.

Daniel Levi leans Nikolas Motta, citing his brawling style and durability compared to VanCamp, who has been knocked out at 170 and is moving down. He thinks Motta is more UFC-ready and has improved by training in the US. He is not crazy about the price and does not bet.

Jacob picks VanCamp despite being biased because he trains with a friend of VanCamp. He highlights VanCamp's tenacity, length, power, and finishing ability, noting that he hurt Fiallo in his debut before getting caught. Jacob also took the under 1.5 rounds, expecting a brawl. He acknowledges Motta is more technical but believes VanCamp's pressure and power will prevail.

Motta is the slicker striker with better technique, while VanCamp is loose and defensively flawed. Both have durability issues, but Motta should capitalize on VanCamp's poor striking defense and counter him. The fight likely ends inside the distance. I prefer the fight doesn't go to decision at -170 to -225 rather than Motta's moneyline at -195.

Paul does not give a clear pick for this fight. He says he has no thoughts and defers to Cody.

Angelo picks Nikolas Motta despite loving Jim Miller. He notes Motta is explosive, athletic, has great power, and is patient. He believes Miller's chin and durability are declining, and Motta's striking is too slick and athletic for the aging Miller. He acknowledges Miller's ground advantage but doubts Miller can take the damage to get there.

Big Brady picks Nikolas Motta, noting he hits hard and is nine years younger. He believes Motta's takedown defense has improved and that Jim Miller's gas tank is poor. He predicts Motta will knock out Miller in the second round, though he acknowledges Miller could win early.

Cody is hesitant but leans toward Motta. He acknowledges that Jim Miller is a live underdog with excellent submission skills and sneaky power, but he is concerned about Miller's age (38) and Lyme disease, which may affect his cardio. Cody notes that Miller tends to fade in later rounds and that Motta, despite a questionable chin, has power and could finish early. He ultimately doesn't have the courage to pick Miller straight up, so he goes with Motta.

Levi is confident in Motta, highlighting his brutal knockout power (devastating KOs over Joe Solecki and Cesar Balmaceda) and improved discipline. He notes that Jim Miller historically struggles past the first round, and Motta has the jiu-jitsu to survive early grappling. Levi expects Motta to weather the early storm and finish Miller in the second or third round.

This fight is likely to end inside the distance. Miller will look for a submission early, but if he fails, his cardio fades and Motta can knock him out. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play regardless of who wins. Motta by KO is also a possibility, but the under is the safer bet. Miller by submission at +350 is a live dog prop.

Paul picks Jim Miller as a dog, arguing that the line has moved too far in Motta's favor. He points out that Motta's takedown defense is untested and that Miller, with 39 UFC fights, has a massive experience advantage. Paul believes Miller can take Motta down and submit him, or even knock him out. He acknowledges Miller's age and potential cardio issues but thinks the value is on the veteran at +155.