UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy

Angelo leans Edson Barboza due to his veteran savvy, well-rounded skills, and recent win over a similar young striker in Sodiq Yusuff. He compares Barboza to Charles Oliveira in terms of danger everywhere. However, he worries about Barboza's age (38) and chin. Lerone Murphy is undefeated with good footwork and power, but Barboza's experience and ability to mix in takedowns could be the difference.

Cody acknowledges the similarities to the Yusuff fight but notes Murphy doesn't gas like Yusuff; Murphy conserves energy and improves in later rounds. He points out Barboza is 38 and has taken a lot of damage, and speed declines with age. Cody is concerned about Murphy's close split decision over Gabriel Santos, but ultimately picks Murphy, citing Father Time as an ally.

Murphy has potential and mixes his game well, with solid cardio and grappling. Barboza is 38 and cutting to 145, which may affect his durability. Murphy can use clinch and takedowns to put Barboza in uncomfortable positions. However, this is Murphy's first five-round fight, and Barboza's experience is a factor. Expects Murphy to grind out a decision.

Paul sees this matchup similar to Barboza's win over Sodiq Yusuff, where Barboza's veteran savvy and cardio allowed him to take over late. He notes Murphy hasn't been tested in five rounds and lacks the volume that Yusuff had. Paul believes Barboza is a tough out for prospects without stout wrestling, and Murphy's wrestling isn't elite enough to neutralize Barboza's striking.

The MMA Guru picks Edson Barboza to win by body kick TKO in round three or four over Lerone Murphy. He argues that Murphy is less powerful and less dangerous than Sadik Yusuf, who Barboza beat. He notes Murphy's tendency to edge by wins and lack of a finishing move, while Barboza has experience in main events and the cardio to break Murphy down. He expects Barboza's speed and technique to prevail.

Angelo picks Khaos Williams due to his power, durability, and takedown defense, but he is not fully confident because Williams looked flat in his last fight with no head movement. Carlston Harris is well-rounded with slick grappling and power. Angelo trusts Williams' takedown defense over Harris's 29% takedown accuracy, but hopes Williams shows improvement.

Cody believes Williams has evolved from a pure power puncher to a more well-rounded fighter who uses inside kicks to set up his right hand. He notes Williams has 80% takedown defense and hasn't been taken down since Michel Pereira. Cody argues Harris's striking is limited and his cardio is suspect; if Harris doesn't get a quick submission, Williams will outwork him on the feet. He also highlights Williams's training camp at Michigan with top welterweights.

Williams has improved his takedown defense and gas tank, and is a crisper striker. Harris relies on clinching and BJJ but will struggle to get the fight to the ground against Williams' physicality. Expects Williams to land the more effective damage and win a decision.

Paul leans on Harris's grappling advantage, noting that if Harris can get the fight to the mat, he should have a significant edge. He questions whether Khaos Williams has been tested against someone with Harris's jiu-jitsu pedigree. Paul expects a striker vs. grappler dynamic and favors the grappler.

The MMA Guru picks Carlston Harris to win by submission (rear-naked choke) in rounds one or two over Khaos Williams. He believes Harris will grapple heavily and that Williams' takedown defense is not bad but Harris is more likely to shoot offensively. He notes Williams' inactivity and real estate business as potential distractions, and trusts Harris' grappling pedigree.

Angelo sees Themba Gorimbo as a distance striker with good takedown defense and now proven power. Ramiz Brahimaj is a submission specialist who has been away for two years and tends to grapple off his back. Angelo thinks Brahimaj will struggle to get past Gorimbo's range and takedown defense, making Gorimbo the clear pick. He may parlay Gorimbo with Piera Rodríguez.

Cody provides a detailed breakdown: Gorimbo has a great story and work ethic, but his grappling defense is a concern. However, Brahimaj is a one-trick pony who relies on first-round submissions and has terrible cardio if he doesn't get them. Cody notes Brahimaj's losses come when he can't secure a takedown, and Gorimbo's cardio and power should take over if he survives the first round. He also mentions live betting Gorimbo if he loses the first round.

Gorimbo is reckless on the feet and has holes in his game. Brahimaj is a slick BJJ specialist who sets up takedowns well and has finishing ability. Both guys have cardio issues, but Brahimaj should find a submission opportunity early. The fight not going to decision is a strong play.

Paul agrees with Cody that the line has moved to a pick 'em for good reason. He notes Gorimbo's cardio and work ethic are his biggest weapons, while Brahimaj has a history of gassing if he doesn't get a first-round submission. Paul believes Gorimbo's improvements at MMA Masters and his raw power make him the play at this price.

The MMA Guru picks Themba Gorimbo over Ramiz Brahimaj, citing Gorimbo's better finishing potential and training at MMA Masters. He notes that Brahimaj lost to Court McGee, which he considers a bad sign for a prospect. He expects Gorimbo to stuff takedowns and eventually finish Brahimaj in round two or three, possibly due to cardio advantage.

Angelo acknowledges Adrian Yañez is the more technical striker with fast hands and real power, but he is coming off back-to-back finish losses and is a 3-to-1 favorite, which Angelo considers poor value. Vinicius Salvador is durable, has forward pressure, and is more well-rounded. Angelo leans Yañez due to his takedown defense and striking edge, but will not bet at current odds.

Cody sees this as a bounceback fight for Yañez, who is a slow starter but has the skills to take over. He notes Salvador is a career flyweight moving up, with no real power and poor takedown defense. Cody predicts Yañez will find his rhythm in the second round and potentially knock Salvador out in the third, as Salvador will feel the power of a true bantamweight.

Yañez has superior technical striking and underrated power. Salvador is 0-2 in the UFC, showboats, and has an unorthodox style but a good chin. Yañez should counter Salvador's flashy strikes and chip away to win a decision. A knockout is possible but not likely due to Salvador's durability.

Paul expects Yañez to get back on track after two tough losses. He notes Salvador is moving up from flyweight, where he was 0-2, and his striking volume and wrestling are not elite. Paul believes Yañez's boxing and body work will be too much, and he expects a finish later in the fight.

The MMA Guru picks Adrian Yañez to win by TKO over Vinicius Salvador, calling it a 'layup' for Yañez. He criticizes Salvador's losses and lack of urgency, and believes Yañez's boxing will be superior. He notes that Yañez has shown takedown defense improvements and expects him to get back on track with a finish.

Angela Hill is a veteran with high fight IQ, good speed, volume, and versatility, though she lacks power. Luana Pinheiro is a powerful striker with solid takedowns and BJJ, but Hill's experience and game planning should prevail. Hill recently showed she can wrestle, and Angelo expects her to stick to a game plan and win a decision.

Cody highlights Pinheiro's pattern of coming out fast and then gassing, as seen against Amanda Lemos and Randa Markos. He believes Hill's technical striking, footwork, and cardio will allow her to weather the early storm and take over in later rounds. Cody also notes Hill's improved wrestling, which she used to get five takedowns against Denise Gomes.

Pinheiro is effective early but slows down, and Hill has improved her takedown defense and getups. Hill's volume and cardio advantage will allow her to piece up Pinheiro in the later rounds. Hill has derailed prospects before and should keep the fight standing. Expects Hill to win a decision.

Paul expects Hill to use her veteran savvy and volume to outwork Pinheiro, who has a history of gassing after a fast start. He notes Hill's technical striking and footwork will allow her to capitalize as the fight goes on. Paul also mentions Hill's recent use of wrestling as a new wrinkle.

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill over Luana Pinheiro, calling Pinheiro 'quite [__]'. He argues that Hill has a misrepresented record with several robbery losses, and that she is difficult to finish. He believes Hill will outwork Pinheiro over three rounds and win a decision, as Pinheiro barely scraped by against Michelle Waterson.

Angelo sees Tom Nolan as the more technical striker with length and pressure, while Victor Martinez is a fast, powerful boxer with poor kicks that can be caught. Nolan's takedown defense is a concern, but Martinez's BJJ defense and scramble skills are decent. Angelo picks Nolan but warns against including him in parlays due to his UFC debut and winless record.

Cody believes Nolan is a legitimate prospect with nasty striking and good size for the weight class. He notes Martinez has had only two fights in four years, was knocked out by Jordan Leavitt, and lacks durability. Cody thinks Nolan's speed, length, and cardio will be too much, and he expects Nolan to win, though he warns about Nolan's chin after the Mota loss.

Martinez was knocked out in his UFC debut and lacks power. Nolan has a significant height and reach advantage and will take a kick-heavy approach to chop away at Martinez's legs. Nolan should be more disciplined after his loss and can land knees up the middle as Martinez throws overhands. The line is wide but Nolan should win.

Paul acknowledges the big question marks around Nolan after his knockout loss to Nicholas Mota, but notes Martinez has been knocked out by Jordan Leavitt, who has little power. He sees Nolan as the better athlete with more tools, but the -475 price is too steep to get heavily involved. Paul will pick Nolan but not bet much.

The MMA Guru picks Tom Nolan to finish Victor Martinez, likely by TKO in the second round. He notes that Martinez has losses to fighters he doesn't rate, including a TKO loss to Jordan Leavitt. He believes Nolan is a more consistent finisher and will be patient, finding his spots after learning from his first UFC loss.

Angelo is high on Oumar Sy, describing him as a 6'5" beast with knockout power and explosive action. He believes Sy will dominate Antonio Trocoli, who is returning from a three-year USADA suspension. Sy has shown he can go to decisions without gassing out. Angelo expects a finish but warns against including Sy in parlays due to his UFC debut.

Cody provides a detailed scouting report: Sy is a natural grappler with heavy hands, similar to Kevin Randleman in terms of raw power. He notes Tokkos has been knocked out by lower-level competition and has poor durability. Cody believes Sy will take Tokkos down and finish him, or knock him out on the feet. He also mentions Tokkos is taking the fight on short notice for a payday.

Tokkos is a short-notice replacement who has been knocked out before and lacks substance in his wins. Sy is a UFC debutant with solid wrestling and a good gas tank. He can rely on his grappling defensively and put power punches on Tokkos to break him. Expects Sy to grind out a decision or find a finish from top position.

Paul notes Sy is a very green prospect but should get through this fight against a short-notice opponent. He highlights Sy's grappling-heavy game and physical strength. Paul expects Sy to take Tokkos down and ground-and-pound him out, though he warns the line may move and Sy's lack of recent activity is a concern.

The MMA Guru picks Oumar Sy over Tuco Tokkos, citing Sy's experience in KSW against tough opponents and his reach advantage. He criticizes Tokkos' career, including a failed drug test for nandrolone and a loss to a chinless welterweight. He believes Sy's striking and grappling are superior and that Tokkos has many red flags.

Angelo is shocked that Melissa Gatto is the biggest favorite on the card at -820 despite being on a two-fight losing streak, moving up in weight, and having poor takedown accuracy (0 for 7 in her last fight). He believes Tamires Vidal is big, strong, and has a grappling advantage. He plans to bet on Vidal, watching the line movement to decide when to place the bet.

Cody views this as a clear bounceback fight for Gatto, who has lost two close decisions to top competition. He notes Vidal has massive limitations in every area: poor footwork, no head movement, low volume, and no power. Gatto is stronger, more technical, and a better wrestler. Cody believes Gatto will dominate on the ground and get back in the win column.

Vidal is reckless with wide hooks and was out-grinded in her last fight. Gatto is the toughest opponent Vidal has faced and should provide a ton of resistance. Expects Gatto to pressure Vidal, use the clinch, take her down, and eventually find a finish. The line should be closer to -400 or -500.

Paul sees Gatto as much more powerful and technical than Vidal. He notes Vidal's only UFC win came via flying knee against a low-level opponent, and she was dominated by Montserrat Ruiz. Paul expects Gatto to manhandle Vidal with her grappling and physicality, despite moving up a weight class.

The MMA Guru picks Melissa Gatto over Tamires Vidal, despite going against his rule of picking 'thems' in women's MMA. He notes that Gatto had a close fight with Tracy Cortez and that Vidal was taken down three times by a smaller opponent in her last fight. He expects Gatto to use her reach and grappling to control Vidal and win by decision.

Angelo believes Abusupiyan Magomedov is the better striker with wrestling as a backup, and that Warlley Alves' best days are behind him. He notes that Alves has power and BJJ but is not as skilled as Magomedov's previous opponents. He thinks Magomedov is worth his -240 price tag and may be decent value, but warns that Alves is always dangerous with his power.

Cody acknowledges Magomedov's cardio issues but sees this as a perfect bounceback fight. He notes Alves has lost as a favorite multiple times and has poor cardio himself. Magomedov has world-class skills and looked great against Sean Strickland in the first round. Cody believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be enough to outwork Alves, who is not a natural middleweight.

Magomedov is dangerous early but slows down, as seen in his last fight. Alves is a nasty kicker with veteran experience who can be competitive in deeper waters. If Alves survives the early onslaught, he can open up finishing opportunities in the second or third round by knockout or submission. The line is too wide, making Alves worth a shot.

Paul notes Alves is a career welterweight moving up, and his cardio has always been suspect. He believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be too much, especially if he manages his cardio better than in previous fights. Paul expects Magomedov to catch Alves late in the first or second round.

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by TKO over Warlley Alves. He acknowledges Magomedov's recent struggles but believes his size, reach, and power will be too much for Alves, who is coming off a KO loss. He notes that Alves tends to kick a lot and may engage in a kicking battle, which favors Magomedov. He expects a first-round TKO.

Angelo acknowledges Piera Rodríguez is the better striker and grappler, but her fight IQ is questionable. Ariane Carnelossi is all brawn and strength, which could be enough in this division. However, the two-year layoff for Carnelossi and Piera's ability to bomb away and mix in takedowns should be the difference. He expects the fight to go the distance, similar to the Tabatha Ricci vs. Tisha Torres fight.

Cody provides an extensive breakdown: Rodríguez is a front-runner with suspect cardio and low volume, while Carnelossi is physically strong, has good cardio, and can get back up from takedowns. He notes Carnelossi's fight against Lupita Godinez showed she can survive multiple takedowns and still be competitive. Cody believes Carnelossi will outwork Rodríguez and win a decision, making her a great underdog play.

Carnelossi is a tank of a human being returning after over two years off. She has power and explosiveness that should dictate the pace on the feet. However, her takedown defense is a concern, and ring rust is a factor. Rodriguez has decent striking and wrestling but may not be able to control Carnelossi on the mat for long. Expects Carnelossi to batter Rodriguez on the feet and win a decision.

Paul likes Carnelossi as an underdog due to her physical strength and cardio edge. He notes Rodríguez has low volume and tends to fade in later rounds. Carnelossi has shown she can get back up from takedowns and has power in her punches. Paul believes Carnelossi's durability and pace will be too much for Rodríguez.

The MMA Guru picks Piera Rodríguez over Ariane Carnelossi, citing Carnelossi's suspected PED use and tendency to gas out. He notes that Carnelossi has been taken down frequently in past fights, including eight takedowns by Loopy Godinez, and that Rodríguez is good at holding back position. He expects Rodríguez to win via takedowns and control, possibly going the distance.

Angelo notes that Alateng Heili struggles with forward pressure and brawlers, and can only do one thing at a time—strike or grapple. Kleydson Rodrigues brings constant forward pressure, versatile striking with kicks, and solid takedown offense from the clinch. However, Rodrigues can be overexposed and taken down. Angelo leans Rodrigues but worries if Heili decides to grapple, which could cause problems.

Cody sees Rodrigues as a potential fraud: he missed weight twice, has poor cardio, and his power may not translate up at bantamweight. Heili is tough, durable, and has never been finished. Cody believes Heili's wrestling defense and forward pressure will wear Rodrigues down, and he expects Heili to win a decision or possibly get a late finish.

Rodrigues is a former flyweight adjusting to 135 lbs but has superior striking and a BJJ black belt. He should be able to box up Alateng Heili, who over-relied on striking against Chris Gutierrez and lost. Expects Rodrigues to win on the scorecards using his striking advantage.

Paul notes Heili is durable and has never been finished in the UFC, while Rodrigues has struggled with weight cuts and cardio. He believes Heili's toughness and pressure will be a problem for Rodrigues, who may fade if he doesn't get an early finish. Paul sees value in Heili as a slight underdog.

The MMA Guru picks Alateng Heili as an underdog over Kleydson Rodrigues. He believes the odds are incorrect and that Heili is a more consistent and composed fighter with good striking. He criticizes Rodrigues' losses, including a finish by Farid Basharat, and notes that Rodrigues' only UFC win is against Shannon Ross, which he dismisses as unimpressive. He also mentions Heili's takedown ability as a potential factor.

Angelo sees Emily Ducote as the better striker with legitimate power and good wrestling defense, while Vanessa Demopoulos relies on volume and footwork but lacks real power. He expects Ducote to win a close decision, likely 29-28, due to her superior striking accuracy and durability. He notes the over 2.5 rounds is a good bet and suggests Vanessa plus 3.5 on the scorecard as a solid bet.

Cody points out Demopoulos has been gifted decisions but is often outlanded and outgrappled. He notes Ducote is a well-rounded fighter with college wrestling, a BJJ black belt, and good striking. Demopoulos's takedown attempts are often unsuccessful, and she struggles with volume. Cody expects Ducote to outland her significantly and win a clear decision.

Demopoulos got a gift decision in her last fight and is not technical with her punches. Ducote has solid all-around skills, throws great leg kicks and clean combinations, and will use her wrestling defensively to keep the fight standing. Expects Ducote to outbox and outstrike Demopoulos on the feet and win on the scorecards.

Paul believes Ducote's wrestling background and superior striking will be too much for Demopoulos. He notes Demopoulos has been on the wrong end of controversial decisions but is often outworked. Ducote should be able to keep the fight standing and outpoint Demopoulos, likely winning a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Emily Ducote over Vanessa Demopoulos, citing Ducote's superior activity and output. He argues that Demopoulos arguably lost several of her UFC fights, including against Kanako Murata, and that her volume is much lower than Ducote's. He expects Ducote to win a unanimous decision, 30-27, due to her three times higher output.