UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, expecting him to avoid Johnny Walker's wild strikes, clinch, and take him down to wear him out. He notes Ankalaev's wrestling backup and thinks he is desperate for a win. He finds the -500 odds too steep to bet given Walker's danger and Ankalaev's recent no-contest and draw.

Big Brady believes Ankalaev can win however he wants, but prefers the wrestling path. He notes Ankalaev's durability and wrestling are superior, while Walker is chinny and unpredictable. He expects Ankalaev to control the fight and win by decision, avoiding prolonged striking exchanges.

Cody picks Ankalaev to win by decision, noting that Ankalaev won the first fight and can mix in wrestling for cage control. He believes Ankalaev is faster and has a better gas tank, and that Pereira is 38 and unlikely to make major adjustments. He expects another close fight but edges it to Ankalaev.

Cody picks Ankalaev despite acknowledging his tendency to make fights closer than necessary. He notes that in the brief first fight, Walker had nothing for Ankalaev and that Ankalaev is clearly the more skilled fighter. He believes Ankalaev will win even if he fights a stupid game plan, citing durability and overall skill advantage.

Daniel Vreeland picks Magomed Ankalaev to defeat Johnny Walker. He acknowledges Ankalaev's well-rounded skill set and size, but notes he sometimes underwhelms. He believes Ankalaev will make adjustments after the first fight, where Walker targeted his legs. Vreeland is confident Ankalaev can get the job done wherever the fight goes, though he worries about Walker's athleticism and unorthodox attacks.

James picks Ankalaev to win via KO, citing that Ankalaev hurt Pereira in round two of their first fight and nearly knocked him out. He believes Pereira's chin may give out this time, and Ankalaev could also secure takedowns and dominate on the ground. James notes that Pereira's calf kicks were effective in the first fight but thinks Ankalaev may have adjusted. He also likes the under 4.5 rounds.

Magomed Ankalaev is a smooth, technical striker who is comfortable in both stances and has a strong clinch and wrestling game. He showed in the first fight that he could take Walker down and control him. Johnny Walker is on a three-fight winning streak and looks confident, but he has historically struggled against technical fighters and can be overwhelmed by grappling. Ankalaev's discipline and wrestling should allow him to neutralize Walker's power and grind out a decision. The over 1.5 rounds is a good play given Ankalaev's grappling approach.

Paul leans towards Ankalaev but acknowledges the fight is close. He notes that Pereira took rounds off and that Ankalaev's wrestling, even if not successful, gave him cage control. He thinks the line is too wide and prefers the decision prop for Pereira, but ultimately sticks with Ankalaev.

Paul picks Ankalaev but expresses concern about his ring IQ and tendency to make fights close. He notes that Ankalaev has the skills to beat anyone but often ignores the wrestling path to victory. He believes Ankalaev is durable enough to take Walker's big shots and will win even if he fights a stupid game plan.

The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker as an underdog, citing Walker's finishing ability and reach advantage (82 inches vs 75). He notes that Ankalaev may be frustrated by recent events (draw with Jan, no-contest with Walker) and that Walker got back up quickly from a takedown in the first fight. He predicts Walker will get a TKO/KO, benefiting from Ankalaev's potential emotional state.

Angelo picks Jim Miller but with low confidence due to his age (40). He notes Miller's late-career power and toughness, but acknowledges Gabriel Benítez is a dangerous striker with power. He thinks Miller's wrestling and grit could get the win, but won't bet on a 40-year-old.

Big Brady likes Jim Miller's recent form, noting he's been active and knocking people out. He questions Benítez's durability and inactivity, as Benítez has been knocked out multiple times and hasn't fought in over a year. Brady predicts Miller will knock out Benítez in the first round, possibly via a club-and-sub.

Cody picks Benítez, citing his solid takedown defense from training with elite wrestlers, his volume striking, and leg kicks that can immobilize Miller. He notes Miller's lack of volume and takedown attempts in recent fights, and believes Benítez can sprawl and keep the fight standing to win by volume.

Daniel Vreeland leans with Gabriel Benítez, citing his youth and durability. He expects a competitive first round, but if it goes past that, Benítez's kicks and knees will wear down Jim Miller. Vreeland acknowledges Miller's finishing ability but thinks Benítez's chin issues are mitigated by the fact that only heavy hitters have knocked him out.

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript. He only covers fights from the card he mentions, and Jim Miller vs Gabriel Benítez is not mentioned.

Gabriel Benítez is a technical striker with a strong kicking game, especially to the body, and trains at AKA. He has a significant layoff but looked impressive in his last win over Charlie Ontiveros. Jim Miller is 40 years old and tends to fade in later rounds if he doesn't get an early finish. Benítez's technical striking advantage should allow him to outwork Miller from distance and potentially hurt him to the body. I expect Benítez to win by decision, but I'm cautious about the layoff and Miller's power. I'd wait for better odds on Benítez, ideally plus 140 or higher.

Paul leans towards Benítez as the number climbs, noting that Jim Miller's recent wins are against low-level competition and that Benítez has a speed advantage and kicks very hard. He mentions that if the line moves to +150, he would take a shot on Benítez, but he's not heavily invested.

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller, admitting bias but citing Miller's consistency and activity. He notes Gabriel Benítez has been inactive for nearly two years and lost to David Onama. He believes Miller still has fast-twitch muscle and finishing ability, predicting a TKO finish in the first round.

Angelo leans Phil Hawes despite his suspect chin, believing he is the better fighter overall with superior wrestling and athleticism. He fears Hawes will get caught striking with Brunno Ferreira, who hits hard. He hopes Hawes uses his wrestling to take Ferreira down. He advises not betting on this fight due to volatility.

Big Brady acknowledges Phil Hawes is better in every skill except durability. He notes Hawes has a questionable chin and has been knocked out brutally. Ferreira has power, and Brady fears Hawes will get caught despite likely winning early. He picks Ferreira by first-round knockout, unable to trust Hawes' chin.

Cody picks Hawes despite historically fading him, because he sees a path to victory via wrestling. He notes that both fighters have similar power and durability issues, but Hawes has a wrestling background that could allow him to take Ferreira down and maul him. He admits it's a risky pick and expects Hawes might still find a way to lose.

Daniel Vreeland picks Brunno Ferreira to knock out Phil Hawes. He praises Hawes's athleticism and skills but notes his weak chin, predicting Hawes will school Ferreira until he gets caught. Vreeland believes Ferreira's power and Judo background will be enough to finish Hawes, as Hawes has been knocked out repeatedly.

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

Brunno Ferreira is a BJJ black belt with power in his hands, but he was knocked out in his last fight against Nursulton Ruziboev. Phil Hawes has durability issues and has been finished in his last two fights, but he starts fast with explosive power. Both fighters have knockout power and questionable chins, making this a coin flip. I lean slightly to Ferreira because I trust his durability a bit more, but this fight likely ends in the first round. I'm passing on a moneyline bet and might play the 'fight doesn't start round 2' prop.

Paul picks Ferreira by first-round KO, noting that Hawes has a weak chin and Ferreira has devastating power. He believes the fight will end early, either by Ferreira knockout or Hawes taking him down, but he prefers the KO prop. He took the bet at +275 early in the week.

The MMA Guru picks Brunno Ferreira, focusing on Phil Hawes' weak chin. He lists Hawes' KO losses to Chris Curtis, Roman Dolidze, and Ikram Aliskerov, noting that one clean shot puts him out. He believes Ferreira can land at least five clean punches and one will knock Hawes out cold.

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, stating that while Andrei Arlovski is the better fighter historically, his age (44) and compromised chin make him unlikely to win. He notes Waldo's athleticism, power, and toughness. He suggests Waldo inside the distance as a likely prop bet.

Big Brady is very confident, calling the fight a mismatch. He notes Arlovski is 44, has been knocked out 12 times, and was recently knocked out by Dantel Maye. He believes Cortes Acosta is younger, hits hard, and will finish Arlovski early. He expresses concern for Arlovski's safety.

Cody picks Waldo, citing his youth, boxing background, volume, and the fact that Arlovski is old and on a decline. He notes that Arlovski has no takedown threat, so Waldo can box freely. He expects Waldo to land bigger shots and possibly get a finish, but acknowledges that if Waldo doesn't put him away, it could be a close decision.

Daniel Vreeland picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta to win, noting his athleticism and youth should be the difference. He mentions Cortes-Acosta's baseball background and punching power. Vreeland has been picking against Arlovski for years and sees no reason to change now, though he's not crazy about the minus-600 line.

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

Waldo Cortes Acosta is a volume striker who works behind his jab and maintains a high output. He has good footwork and can outpoint opponents over three rounds. Andrei Arlovski is a veteran who fades in fights and has been finished in his last two losses. This should be a striking battle, and Cortes Acosta's consistent output should earn him a decision. I'm not touching the moneyline at -600, but the over 1.5 rounds is a good play, and Cortes Acosta by decision is worth a sprinkle if the odds are right.

Paul does not make a clear pick. He says he thinks Waldo will win but won't bet him at -650. He considers waiting for the line to move to +500 on Arlovski but doesn't commit. He mentions the possibility of Waldo freezing up against a legend.

The MMA Guru picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing Andrei Arlovski's declining chin and recent losses. He notes Arlovski got KO'd by Don'Tale Mayes and struggled with Jake Collier and Jared Vanderaa. He believes Cortes Acosta's boxing and power will lead to a first-round KO, and suggests the UFC wants Arlovski to lose due to his high salary.

Angelo picks Preston Parsons as a slight underdog, hoping he can weather an early storm and get takedowns like Jeremiah Wells did. He acknowledges Parsons' cardio issues and Semelsberger's one-punch knockout power, which is why his bet is only a quarter unit. He also plans to bet Semelsberger inside the distance as a prop, believing Parsons won't submit him.

Big Brady sees this as a striker vs. grappler matchup. He highlights Semelsberger's incredible power, having knocked down opponents in 7 of 9 UFC fights. He believes if Semelsberger stuffs takedowns, he will knock out Parsons brutally. Parsons' path is via submission, but Brady favors the power of Semelsberger.

Cody picks Parsons, citing his wrestling advantage and full camp, while Semelsberger is on short notice. He notes Semelsberger's suspect chin and cardio due to weight cuts, and that Parsons can take him down and hold him down. He admits it's not a high-confidence play but likes the dog at plus money.

Daniel Vreeland leans with Matthew Semelsberger to knock out Preston Parsons. He acknowledges Semelsberger's power and knockdown rate, but worries about his tendency to end up on his back. Vreeland thinks if Semelsberger can avoid getting taken down, he will bust up Parsons standing. He hopes Semelsberger has fixed the mental issues that held him back.

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

Preston Parsons is a pressure grappler who uses relentless forward movement and takedowns to control opponents. He has a strong wrestling base and can grind out decisions. Matthew Semelsberger has power but has struggled against grapplers, as seen in the Jeremiah Wells fight where he was controlled on the mat. Parsons' pace and grappling should neutralize Semelsberger's striking. At plus 110, Parsons is a good value pick, and I expect him to win by decision through control and pressure.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Parsons as the wrestler on a full camp at plus money. He notes that Semelsberger has never impressed him and that Parsons has a clear path via wrestling. He mentions that Semelsberger's weight cut and short notice could be factors.

The MMA Guru picks Matthew Semelsberger despite acknowledging his tendency to mess up TKO finishes. He notes Semelsberger's size, reach, and power, and believes he has a high likelihood of landing a big KO shot. He is not impressed by Preston Parsons, except for his win over Trevin Giles, which he attributes to Giles' mistakes.

Angelo picks Marcus McGhee, citing his power, takedowns, and toughness. He advises McGhee to lean on wrestling rather than striking with a Muay Thai world champion. He notes that Gaston Bolaños is a dangerous striker who could catch McGhee, but believes McGhee's clear path to victory is through grappling. He has McGhee in a parlay for premium members.

Big Brady is cautious because McGhee hasn't shown a grappling game, but Bolaños has a major hole in takedown defense and ground game. He thinks if McGhee wrestles, he can submit Bolaños easily. However, if McGhee stands and trades, Bolaños is the better striker. Brady leans toward McGhee getting a submission but admits it's a stay-away fight.

Cody picks McGhee by submission, citing his well-rounded game, grappling advantage, and ability to grind on Bolaños. He notes that Bolaños is a world-class striker but has poor grappling and pacing, and that McGhee will take him down, take his back, and submit him.

Daniel Vreeland leans with Marcus McGhee, citing his well-rounded game and more paths to victory. He notes McGhee's athleticism and power, but worries he might brawl instead of taking the fight to the mat where he has an advantage. Vreeland thinks McGhee can submit Bolaños but will have to work for it.

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

Gastón Bolaños is a more technical striker with a kickboxing background, having competed in Glory. He showed good patience and submission defense in his UFC debut against Aaron Phillips. Marcus McGhee is explosive and powerful but tends to overextend and can be countered. Bolaños has trained at American Kickboxing Academy and Team Alpha Male, improving his takedown defense. If he keeps the fight standing, his technical striking should allow him to pick McGhee apart. At plus 225, Bolaños is a solid underdog pick, and I expect him to win by decision.

Paul picks Bolaños as a live underdog, citing his devastating striking and spinning elbows. He acknowledges Bolaños' grappling is a work in progress but believes if he can keep the fight standing, he has a real chance. He took a shot at +255 a few days ago.

The MMA Guru picks Marcus McGhee, calling it a mismatch. He notes that Gaston Bolaños is a good kickboxer but has grappling issues, while McGhee is strong in both areas. He predicts McGhee will find a takedown and choke him out, possibly with a rear-naked choke in the second round.

Angelo picks Farid Basharat confidently, citing his superior wrestling and solid striking. He notes that Taylor Lapilus is a good kickboxer with decent takedown defense but was taken down twice by C.J. LaRue, and Farid is a much better wrestler. He believes Farid will win on the feet and in grappling exchanges with forward pressure. He likes the over 2.5 rounds and has it in a parlay.

Big Brady thinks the line is too wide and that Taylor Lapilus is underrated. He believes Lapilus has good takedown defense and fast hands, and if he keeps the fight standing, he can out-strike Basharat. He sees a close fight possibly going to a split decision, and picks Lapilus as a live underdog.

Cody picks Lapilus as a sizable underdog, citing his striking advantage, speed, footwork, and solid takedown defense. He believes Lapilus can stuff takedowns and outpoint Basharat on the feet. He notes that Basharat's wrestling may be overrated and that Lapilus has the experience to win a decision.

Daniel Vreeland leans with Farid Basharat, praising his pace, stance switching, and relentless takedown attempts. He acknowledges Lapilus's technical striking and improved takedown defense, but thinks Basharat's pressure and ground game will be the difference. Vreeland notes that if Lapilus can keep it standing, he might have success, but Basharat's relentless style could make him hesitant.

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript. He discusses a fight between Fared Basherat and Chris Gutierrez, which is not on the card.

Farid Basharat is a talented 26-year-old with crisp striking and a strong grappling game, training at Extreme Couture under Jake Shields. He mixes takedowns well and has a smothering top game. Taylor Lapilus is an experienced striker with decent power but has shown vulnerability to grappling, as seen in the Colin Anglin fight. Basharat's wrestling and control should be the difference, allowing him to grind out a decision. The line at -245 is a bit wide, but Basharat's grappling advantage should secure the win.

Paul picks Lapilus, echoing Cody's sentiments. He notes that Lapilus has a massive advantage on the feet and that Basharat's grappling may not be as effective against a good takedown defender. He believes Lapilus will be making his card at +235.

The MMA Guru picks Farid Basharat after considering Taylor Lapilus as an underdog. He rewatched Lapilus's fight with Kyler Phillips and was unimpressed, noting Lapilus lacked versatility and didn't make reads. He believes Basharat is on a different level and will win, though he acknowledges Lapilus could stuff takedowns.

Angelo picks Jean Silva, acknowledging his savage striking and creativity, but notes that the -800 odds are inflated due to low respect for Westin Wilson. He sees a small chance of Wilson winning via submission if he gets Silva to the ground, but considers it unlikely. He will not bet or parlay Silva at these odds for a UFC debutant.

Big Brady is very high on Jean Silva, citing his impressive performance on the Contender Series and his power. He criticizes Westin Wilson's lack of process and poor striking defense, predicting Silva will knock him out early. However, he warns that if the fight goes to the ground, Wilson is dangerous with submissions, but believes the knockout comes first.

Cody picks Silva, stating that Wilson doesn't belong in the UFC and has durability issues. He notes Silva's power and ability to finish, and that Wilson's long frame makes him prone to getting hit. He expects a first-round knockout, but acknowledges the price is too high to bet.

Daniel Vreeland picks Jean Silva to win in devastating fashion. He highlights Silva's highlight-reel finishes and toughness, contrasting with Wilson's non-committal style and weak chin. Vreeland expects Silva to get a knockout and become a fighter to watch.

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

Jean Silva is a 27-year-old debutant on a winning streak, training at MMA Fight Nerds under Kyle Bajayo. He uses unorthodox and flashy strikes to hurt opponents and has solid Jiu-Jitsu. Westin Wilson is a 34-year-old who is clearly not UFC-level, with losses to former UFC fighters and a short-notice debut loss. Wilson's karate style and blitz attacks are ineffective against higher competition. Silva should make quick work of Wilson, likely finishing him early. The under 1.5 rounds is chalky but likely to cash.

Paul picks Silva, agreeing that Wilson is not UFC caliber. He notes Silva's proven cardio from the Contender Series fight and believes he can go 15 minutes if needed. He thinks Silva will win, possibly by mixing in grappling, but the price is too high to bet.

The MMA Guru picks Jean Silva, dismissing Westin Wilson as not UFC level. He criticizes Wilson's padded record and losses to low-level opponents, including a loss to Teruto Ishihara. He believes Silva has a legitimate career and will win easily.

Angelo picks Tom Nolan, believing he is the better striker with good accuracy, power, and pressure. He notes Nolan's poor takedown defense but thinks Motta won't exploit it as he averages zero takedowns per fight. He is slightly concerned about Motta's veteran savvy and explosive striking, and finds the -330 odds too steep for a UFC debutant. He plans to leave the fight alone rather than bet.

Big Brady acknowledges Tom Nolan's defensive flaws but believes Nikolas Motta's confidence and durability are shot. He notes Motta has been knocked out repeatedly and even struggled against low-output fighters. Brady expects Nolan's power and aggression to overwhelm Motta, predicting a first-round knockout.

Cody picks Nolan but is hesitant, noting that Motta is a shell of himself and has lost confidence. He acknowledges Nolan's inexperience and defensive flaws, but believes Motta's recent performances are so poor that Nolan can win. He says it's a trappy fight and he's not confident.

Daniel Vreeland picks Tom Nolan to win, but is hesitant due to Nolan's inexperience. He compares Nolan to a green Carlos Condit, praising his length and variety of strikes. Vreeland worries about Nolan making rookie mistakes against the experienced Motta, who has knockout power. He thinks Nolan can get a finish if he avoids Motta's big hooks.

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

Tom Nolan is an undefeated 23-year-old with a massive 6'3" frame and 76-inch reach, giving him a significant height and reach advantage over Motta. He earned his UFC contract by destroying Bogdan Grad on the Contender Series, showcasing his speed and power. Motta has durability issues and has been hurt in multiple fights, which Nolan can exploit. I expect Nolan to use his physical advantages to brutalize Motta and finish him inside the first round by KO. The minus 330 line is a bit steep for a debutant, but the matchup favors Nolan heavily.

Paul picks Nolan as a fade of Motta, noting that Motta's durability and confidence are gone. He says he has no intention of betting Motta and that Nolan is unproven but likely wins. He calls it a trappy fight and is not confident.

The MMA Guru picks Tom Nolan, highlighting his size, reach, and finishing ability. He notes that Nikolas Motta has been too finishable recently, with KO losses to Manel Torres, Trey Ogden, and Jim Miller. He believes Nolan's power and size will catch Motta's chin and put him away by TKO.

Angelo picks Joshua Van, citing his faster and more accurate striking, good scramble skills, and youth at 22. He notes that Van's takedown defense is just okay but believes his striking and scrambling will keep him out of trouble on the ground. He acknowledges Felipe Bunes' BJJ threat but thinks Van can avoid submissions. He placed a 1.5 unit bet on Van at -225 but won't parlay him due to being unproven and a lackluster last performance.

Big Brady is a big fan of Joshua Van, noting his rapid improvements and high volume striking. He believes Van's durability and activity will overwhelm Bunes, who may struggle to out-strike him. Brady sees Bunes' path to victory as either a knockout or grappling, but doubts his ability to finish Van. He predicts Van wins by decision.

Cody picks Van, citing his youth, volume striking, and improvement in grappling. He notes that Van has shown the ability to adjust between rounds and has a huge gas tank. He believes Van's striking will be too much for Bunes, who is older and may not be able to take him down and hold him down.

Daniel Vreeland picks Joshua Van to continue his run, citing his high pace and boxing skills. He acknowledges Bunes's opportunistic finishing ability and danger on the ground, but thinks if the fight goes the distance, Van's striking output will be too much. Vreeland warns that Bunes is live for a finish, but Van's youth and athleticism should prevail.

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

Joshua Van is a talented 22-year-old striker with fluid movement and improving takedown defense. He showed resilience in his last fight against Kevin Borjas, coming back from an early knockdown to win a decision. Felipe Bunes is a 34-year-old debutant who relies on striking but has been knocked out before. Van's slicker striking and defensive grappling should allow him to outpoint Bunes over three rounds. I expect Van to win by decision, as Bunes may struggle to land anything significant.

Paul picks Van, noting his impressive volume and ability to fight at a high pace. He mentions that Van's takedown defense and get-up game have improved, and that Bunes' best chance is on the ground, but Van is steadily improving. He believes Van will expose Bunes as just serviceable.

The MMA Guru picks Joshua Van, citing his superior technique, body work, and composure. He notes that Felipe Bunes has power but is reckless and was wobbled in his last fight. He predicts Van will use his jab, body shots, and then find the finish, likely by TKO in the late second or third round.