Thomas Petersen

Angelo picks Thomas Petersen despite acknowledging his poor striking, because Petersen is a strong wrestler with good top control. He notes that Guilherme Pat has poor takedown defense and can be held against the cage. Angelo believes Petersen can absorb Pat's strikes, close the distance, and grind out a win on the ground. He cautions that picks are not bets but thinks Petersen can get the takedowns.

Big Brady picks Thomas Petersen but with low confidence. He notes Petersen has good wrestling but is inconsistent. He thinks Petersen needs to wrestle hard for 15 minutes to win, and that Pat is a solid striker but can be controlled. He expects a greasy decision win for Petersen.

Cody picks Petersen, expecting him to use his wrestling to control Pat on the ground. He notes Petersen's wrestling background and Pat's inexperience, and believes Petersen will secure a decision or late finish.

Connor leans toward Peterson, citing his reproducible approach and ability to beat better athletes. He notes Peterson is a reasonable wrestler and better than Fry, which could neutralize Pat. However, he admits Pat could come in much better and that Peterson has been knocked out before, making it a low-confidence pick.

James hesitantly picks Thomas Petersen, predicting he will get outskilled early but come back to win via finish in round three or a close decision. He notes Pat's superior athleticism and footwork but criticizes his lack of finishing instinct and tendency to gas. He believes Petersen's wrestling, grit, and size advantage will wear on Pat as the fight progresses. He admits he needs to watch more tape and is not fully confident.

The host picks Petersen, citing his wrestling, cardio, and top control as kryptonite to Pat's power. He notes Pat's lackluster UFC debut and reliance on power, while Petersen has better grappling and gas tank. However, he has mediocre confidence due to the possibility of Pat landing a big shot early. He predicts Petersen by decision.

Paul leans towards Petersen, noting his wrestling advantage and Pat's struggles against cage pressure. He expects Petersen to grind out a win, though he's not fully confident.

The MMA Guru picks Thomas Petersen, citing his crafty wrestling and size advantage. He notes that Guilherme Pat was held against the cage by a lesser opponent and that Petersen has good boxing and grappling. He seems somewhat uncertain but leans towards Petersen.

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, believing he is better everywhere except for pure grit. He thinks Vitor can find a finish, but acknowledges the risk of Thomas Petersen grinding out a win if he gets top position. He is undecided on betting due to Vitor's lack of true heavyweight size and the possibility of being controlled on the ground.

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by second-round knockout. He notes Petrino has filled out at heavyweight and put on muscle, and believes he will win because many heavyweights are not great. He thinks Petersen is more skilled than shown but won't outwrestle or outstrike Petrino. Brady leans toward a knockout, saying Petrino will touch Petersen's chin.

Cody picks Petersen as well, noting Petrino's history of underperforming as a favorite. He highlights Petrino's low volume and poor wrestling, while Petersen is a better wrestler and throws more volume. He expects a close fight but sees value in the underdog.

Lucrative James picks Vitor Petrino by KO, but is not confident due to Petrino's chin issues and the -310 price. He notes Petrino's power advantage and Petersen's poor striking defense. He acknowledges Petersen's wrestling and cardio could grind out a decision, but sees a knockout as most likely. He mentions he might bet against his pick with a Petersen decision longshot.

Manpreet picks Petersen as an underdog, believing that if Petersen can avoid Petrino's early knockout power, his wrestling and cardio will take over. He notes Petersen's dominant performance against Mayes and expects him to wear Petrino down, potentially finishing in round three. He loves the plus 260 line and also considers the round three prop.

Paul picks Petersen as a dog, citing Petrino's poor wrestling and low volume. He notes Petersen's wrestling credentials and durability, and believes he can outwork Petrino. He calls it a 'dog or pass' fight.

Angelo sees this as a straightforward matchup: if Thomas Petersen gets takedowns, he wins; if he stays on the feet too long, he gets knocked out. He notes that Don'Tale Mayes has struggled with grapplers recently, and Petersen took down his last opponent easily. He believes Petersen's wrestling will be the deciding factor.

Big Brady is confident in Thomas Petersen, expecting his best performance to date. He highlights Petersen's wrestling background and vicious ground and pound, noting that Mayes has poor takedown defense (57%) and looks bad when taken down, citing examples like Valter Walker's heel hook and Shamil Gaz's control. He questions Mayes's motivation, pointing out his social media silence and poor shape at weigh-ins. He predicts Petersen will take Mayes down and finish him by TKO in round two.

Mayes is an average heavyweight with a 5-5 UFC record. Petersen can dictate the pace with his developing striking and mix in takedowns. I expect Petersen to grind out a decision win.

Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev, believing he is the better fighter despite a loss to Rozenstruik. He notes that Gaziev has improved his cardio and bounced back with a decision win. He thinks Gaziev's power and physicality will be too much for Thomas Petersen, who is solid but not spectacular. He includes Gaziev in a parlay with Mike Davis.

Big Brady thinks Shamil Gaziev has awful cardio but will likely knock out Thomas Petersen early. He notes Gaziev has much more power and Petersen is hitable. Brady expects a first-round knockout, but says if the fight extends it will be 'greasy'. He is staying away from betting Gaziev at -330 and might live bet Petersen.

Petersen's wrestling background will allow him to keep the fight upright and use his jab and volume to outwork Gaziev, who struggles when he can't secure takedowns or control against the cage. Petersen is a plus-300 underdog and is expected to win on the scorecards.

Angelo picks Mohammed Usman because he is the larger, more physically imposing fighter with a brick for a head and decent power. He notes that neither fighter is very good or entertaining, and that Usman's takedown defense should hold up against Petersen's wrestling. However, he explicitly says he cannot bet on low-level heavyweight fights, so this is a lean with no stake.

Cody picks Petersen, noting his youth (29) and wrestling pedigree. He thinks if Petersen can get takedowns, he can control Usman. He admits Usman has better striking and cardio but believes Petersen's southpaw stance and sophomore improvement could be factors. He calls it a dogger pass situation and sides with the underdog.

Daniel Vreeland picks Mohammed Usman, noting his improvements and ability to last three rounds. He believes Usman can defend takedowns and tire out Petersen, who gasses when his takedown game fails. Vreeland expects Usman to take over late in the fight.

Petersen is a slight dog at +110. He has a wrestling-heavy approach but needs to improve his striking to avoid being picked apart. Usman is not as crisp a striker as Jamal Pogues, which could allow Petersen to have more success with his wrestling. Petersen's pressure and pace should wear down Usman around the 6-minute mark, leading to a decision win. However, I need to see improvements in Petersen's striking before I'm confident enough to invest heavily.

Paul picks Usman, citing his wrestling background, takedown defense (never taken down in UFC), and better striking. He thinks Petersen's wrestling won't be effective and that Usman will edge a decision or get a late finish. He calls the line very playable.

Angelo picks Thomas Petersen, the prospect, over Jamal Pogues. He notes that the UFC often sets up fights to test prospects, and Petersen's wrestling should be good enough to get Pogues to the ground. He acknowledges Petersen's striking is poor but believes his wrestling will carry him. He also mentions that Pogues lacks one-punch knockout power to turn the fight around.

Big Brady picks Thomas Petersen to win by TKO ground and pound within the first two rounds. He notes Petersen is the bigger, stronger fighter with a wrestling background and vicious ground and pound, while Jamal Pogues has looked lackluster at heavyweight and has been taken down by smaller fighters. The main concern is Petersen's cardio, as he was knocked out in the third round in his only fight that went that far, but Brady expects an early finish.

Cody leans to Petersen, but is wary of Pogues' potential if he makes weight. He notes Pogues' weight issues and poor performance against Parkin. He thinks Petersen's wrestling and cardio could be decisive, but he's not confident.

Petersen has good forward pressure and wrestling, but his gas tank is a concern after gassing in his only loss. Pogues has been to four straight decisions and may struggle to implement his striking or grappling. The host leans slightly to Petersen, expecting him to grind out a decision win if he avoids big shots and manages his cardio.

Paul picks Petersen by submission, taking a small sprinkle at +750. He notes Petersen's wrestling and submission win last time, and Pogues' weight and cardio issues. He thinks the prop is overpriced.