UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo

Angelo is very confident in Cory Sandhagen, citing his superior striking, footwork, and durability. He believes Figueiredo's improved cardio and wrestling at bantamweight will not be enough to overcome Sandhagen's skills. He expects Sandhagen to win eight out of ten times and would bet if the odds drop to -300 or better.

Big Brady is confident in Cory Sandhagen, citing a rough matchup for Figueiredo. He notes that Figueiredo is undersized at bantamweight, his power hasn't translated, and he struggles with volume. Sandhagen has a great chin, cardio, and volume advantage, and will outland Figueiredo significantly. Figueiredo relies on moments, but Sandhagen is durable and hard to take down. Brady expects Sandhagen to pick Figueiredo apart over five rounds.

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Sandhagen can beat Figueiredo in every phase, including on the ground. He highlights Sandhagen's calmness in grappling positions, similar to Yan's ability to stall Figueiredo's back takes. Connor notes that Figueiredo's power is real but his speed is declining, and Sandhagen's size and durability make him a tough target. He calls it a straightforward pick but expects a competitive fight.

This is a perfect stylistic matchup for Sandhagen. Figueiredo may grapple early but can't keep it up for more than two rounds. Sandhagen's output, cardio, volume, and grappling will allow him to win at least three of the last four rounds and win a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Cory Sandhagen to win by TKO in round four, possibly due to a doctor stoppage from swelling. He believes Sandhagen's range, footwork, and jab will frustrate Figueiredo, who struggles with taller opponents. He compares it to Moreno's performance but expects Sandhagen to do more damage. He notes that Sandhagen has a good chin and can survive knockdowns. He thinks the odds are crazy and Sandhagen should be a -250 favorite.

Zane sees Sandhagen as a steady, adaptable technician who can fight well wherever the fight goes. He notes that Figueiredo's low output and reliance on singular moments of offense won't work against Sandhagen over five rounds. Zane also points out that Sandhagen's size and calm grappling defense will neutralize Figueiredo's takedowns, similar to how Yan handled them. He acknowledges Figueiredo's power but believes Sandhagen's consistency and volume will carry him to a decision win.

Angelo picks Bo Nickal but is hesitant due to de Ridder's size and jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges that Nickal is the better wrestler but warns that de Ridder could get the first takedown and win on the ground. He decides not to bet on this fight despite the affordable odds, preferring to watch.

Big Brady is confident in Bo Nickal, expecting a knockout. He praises Nickal's fight IQ in the Paul Craig fight for not grappling with a dangerous submission artist. He notes that de Ridder will struggle to take Nickal down, and Nickal is the better striker with improving skills, better durability, and cardio. De Ridder has gassed out and quit in fights before. Brady predicts Nickal will knock out de Ridder in the second round.

Connor picks Nickal, but with low confidence. He acknowledges that de Ridder is a dangerous grappler with a swarming style, but believes Nickal's superior athleticism and wrestling could shut down de Ridder's game. Connor notes that de Ridder's defensive flaws on the feet make him vulnerable to Nickal's power, and if Nickal can land early, he may finish. However, he admits Nickal's inexperience and poor showing against Craig make this a risky pick.

Many are low on Nickal after the Paul Craig fight, but that was just for live striking experience. Here, he may mix in wrestling to keep de Ridder guessing. I expect Nickal to land a big shot and win by knockout.

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by TKO in the first or second round. He believes Nickal's wrestling instincts and speed will be too much for Reinier de Ridder, who he thinks is stationary and vulnerable to straight shots. He notes that de Ridder struggled with Gerald Meerschaert and that Nickal will piece him up on the feet. He predicts Nickal will drop de Ridder early and finish him.

Zane picks de Ridder, drawing parallels to the GM3 fight where a less athletic but more experienced grappler outworked a younger wrestler. He notes that Nickal's lack of experience and poor performance against Paul Craig suggest he may struggle against de Ridder's pressure and scrambling. Zane worries that Nickal will get tired or panic if he can't impose his wrestling, leading to a late submission loss. However, he acknowledges Nickal's higher athletic ceiling could change the outcome.

Angelo picks Daniel Rodriguez, expecting him to be the cleaner striker and apply forward pressure. He notes that Ponzinibbio tends to get busted up and that Rodriguez can take over after the first round. He also mentions a potential over 1.5 rounds bet if available.

Big Brady leans slightly toward Daniel Rodriguez in a close fight between two aging fighters. He notes that Ponzinibbio's durability is questionable, as he wobbles when hit, while Rodriguez has better volume and durability at this stage. However, both are 38 and have looked rough recently. Brady expects a competitive fight that goes the distance, with judges likely favoring Rodriguez based on optics.

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Ponzinibbio's power and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez. He notes that Rodriguez is a slow starter and a slow mover, making it unlikely he can hurt Ponzinibbio consistently. Connor points out that Ponzinibbio has retained his ability to knock people out even when fights are going poorly, while Rodriguez's offense has diminished.

Ponzinibbio has slowed and his durability is a concern, but Rodriguez doesn't have the power to exploit that. Ponzinibbio will dictate the pace, land more impactful shots, and win a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, describing him as a lifelong martial artist who is more well-rounded than Daniel Rodriguez, whom he calls a 'street dude with hands.' He believes Ponzinibbio will win a decision by getting takedowns at the end of rounds to sway judges. He notes that Rodriguez has declined due to injuries and poor grappling decisions.

Zane picks Ponzinibbio, noting that despite his decline, he retains a clear process of pressure boxing and fight-changing power. He contrasts this with Rodriguez, who is slower and less sharp as a counterpuncher. Zane expects Ponzinibbio to start slow but take over by round three, swarming Rodriguez with combinations. He believes Rodriguez lacks the offensive potential to put Ponzinibbio away and will be outworked.

Angelo goes against the public and picks Daniel Marcos as an underdog. He trusts Marcos's cardio and takedown defense, and believes he can win a close decision similar to his last fight. He suggests a +3.5 spread bet if the odds remain wide.

Big Brady picks Montel Jackson, citing his significant height and reach advantage, power, and wrestling upside. He notes that Jackson's losses came against wrestlers who took him down, but Marcos is not a wrestler; Jackson may get takedowns instead. Brady questions Marcos's ceiling, pointing out close decisions against Adrien Yanez and Davey Grant, where Grant outlanded Marcos. He expects Jackson to win a decision, mixing in wrestling and landing big shots.

Connor picks Marcos, believing his defensive awareness and ability to slip past length will neutralize Jackson's reach. He notes that Jackson's striking is aimless and he has struggled against pressure fighters like Brent Johns and Ricky Simone. Connor thinks Marcos can get inside and land meaningful shots, and that Jackson's lack of process will be exposed. However, he admits Marcos tends to walk a fine line and doesn't control fights completely.

Jackson will shut down Marcos's calf kicking and grappling game. He will land his big power and muscle Marcos, getting a KO finish within 10 minutes.

The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson to win by TKO in the first or second round. He praises Jackson's power, reach, and wrestling defense, noting that he has never been held down. He believes Daniel Marcos lacks the grappling threat and power to trouble Jackson, and that Jackson will find a finish. He thinks Jackson should be a -250 favorite, so -198 is good value.

Zane picks Jackson, citing his size, reach, and fight-changing power as key advantages. He notes that Marcos has never faced a fighter with Jackson's physical attributes and may struggle to get inside. Zane acknowledges that Marcos is skilled and defensively aware, but worries that Jackson's power will be the difference if Marcos can't neutralize the reach. He admits it's a close fight and not confident.

Angelo picks the underdog Cameron Smotherman, believing he can get inside Serhiy Sidey's range and win. He criticizes Sidey's reliance on height and notes that Smotherman looked good on short notice against Jake Hadley. He is not sure if he will bet on it but is confident in the pick.

Big Brady picks Serhiy Sidey, citing his length, rangy striking, body shots, toughness, and sneaky grappling. He notes that Smotherman has terrible takedown defense and questionable durability, having been knocked down by a jab and starched by Charalampos Grigoriou. Brady expects a back-and-forth war but trusts Sidey's durability and ability to mix it up. He predicts Sidey will knock out Smotherman in the third round.

Connor picks Sidey, citing his dynamic striking and ability to build rhythm under pressure. He notes that Sidey's wildness and reach advantage could disrupt Smotherman's methodical pressure. Connor points out that Smotherman's win over Hadley may have been more about Hadley's poor performance than Smotherman's excellence. He believes Sidey's unpredictability and volume will be too much for Smotherman to handle.

Sidey has a range and height advantage that will help him dictate the pace. He has been training at MMA Lab and should show improvements. I expect him to land more shots from distance and win a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Cameron Smotherman, noting his body work and forward pressure. He believes Serhiy Sidey slows down and covers up when pressured, and that Smotherman can take over in the later rounds. He predicts a 29-28 decision win for Smotherman, with momentum shifting in the second round.

Zane picks Smotherman, impressed by his improved combination punching and pressure against Jake Hadley. He believes Smotherman can replicate that performance by targeting Sidey's body and staying consistent. However, he worries that Sidey's wild, unpredictable style could throw Smotherman off his game. Zane acknowledges that Smotherman's previous wins came against opponents who offered little resistance, and Sidey is more dynamic.

Angelo expects Mason Jones to pick apart Jeremy Stephens with superior boxing and takedowns. He notes that Stephens is exciting but slower and will likely be taken down multiple times. He does not predict a finish but believes Jones will win a clear decision.

Big Brady is very confident in Mason Jones, calling it a mismatch. He highlights Jones's well-rounded skills: BJJ black belt, great striking, volume, power, and toughness. Stephens hasn't fought in MMA since 2022, is 38, and looked bad recently. Brady expects Jones to take Stephens down and finish him quickly, predicting a first-round submission. He notes that if Jones stands and bangs, it gives Stephens a puncher's chance, but still favors Jones.

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Jones's aggression and clinch wrestling will be too much for Stephens. He compares Stephens's decline to his loss to Clay Collard, where aggression wore him down. Connor believes Jones can take Stephens down and keep him there, as Stephens's ground instincts are poor. He calls it a fight that feels like PFL filler but expects Jones to win.

Jones is younger and closer to his prime. He will mix up his game to wear down the 39-year-old Stephens and eventually secure a dominant position for a ground-and-pound TKO or submission.

The MMA Guru picks Mason Jones, citing his well-roundedness, wrestling, and granite chin. He believes Jeremy Stephens is too old and has been focusing on BKFC and boxing, so his grappling will be rusty. He predicts Jones will win by TKO on the ground, possibly after using his taekwondo to back Stephens up. He thinks Jones should be a 3-to-1 favorite, not -575.

Zane picks Jones, emphasizing that Stephens has been a lost cause in MMA for years, with declining foot speed and takedown defense. He notes that Jones is an aggressive brawler who pressures well and has never been knocked out. Zane points out that Stephens hasn't knocked anyone out in MMA since 2018 and is susceptible to pressure and wrestling. He believes Jones will swarm Stephens and wear him down.

Angelo picks Yana Santos as the underdog, citing her superior striking and footwork. He believes Miesha Tate is one-dimensional and will struggle to get takedowns. He notes that Santos looked good in her last fight and that Tate has not evolved enough to compete. He also mentions a possible spread bet if available.

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate, citing a clear path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He notes that Yana Santos has poor takedown defense (42%) and looks bad on bottom, as seen against Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira. Despite Tate's age (38) and inconsistency, her ground game is strong with submissions and ground and pound. He predicts Tate will finish by second-round submission.

Tate should take advantage of Santos's grappling shortcomings. She will mix up takedowns, get top control, and grind out a decision win.

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate, stating that Yana Santos has shown an inability to do anything on the ground. He believes Tate's wrestling and experience will be enough to outwrestle Santos. He criticizes the state of women's bantamweight but expects Tate to get the win.

Angelo believes the fight will come down to who gets the first takedown, as neither fighter is comfortable on their back. He thinks Azamat Bekoev's experience (22 fights) and well-rounded skills give him an edge over Ryan Loder's cautious wrestling approach. He expects Bekoev to time his takedown and win.

Big Brady picks Azamat Bekoev, believing it's a bad matchup for Ryan Loder. He notes that Loder has a wrestling background but often fails to take down opponents worse than Bekoev, and his striking is poor. Bekoev has good takedown defense and get-up ability, and he has the striking advantage and power. Brady expects Bekoev to win by decision, possibly hurting Loder, though Loder has never been knocked out.

Many overlook Loder's wrestling and that Bekoev struggles against grapplers who provide resistance. Loder will shut down Bekoev's grappling, initiate scrambles, and come out on top. I expect a close fight and Loder wins by decision.

The MMA Guru picks Azamat Bekoev, noting he is well-rounded and trains at a good gym. He believes Bekoev's strength in scrambles and his ability to make it a tricky MMA bout will be too much for Ryan Loder. He mentions that Loder has lost on the regional scene and that Bekoev should be a slight favorite, but the odds are wide. He also notes that Loder has decent value as an underdog.

Angelo points out that Marina Rodriguez has poor takedown defense, which Gillian Robertson can exploit with her grappling. He acknowledges that Robertson's takedowns are not spectacular but should be sufficient. He expects Robertson to get the fight to the ground and control it, though he notes it could be a close decision due to Rodriguez's striking ability.

Big Brady is confident in Gillian Robertson, citing a clear stylistic advantage. He explains that Marina Rodriguez has poor willingness to get up after being taken down, and at 38 years old, she won't improve that. Robertson is younger and will take Rodriguez down, control her on the ground, and cruise to a 30-27 decision. He notes that Rodriguez has survived finishes against solid grapplers but loses minutes on bottom.

This is a clear striker vs grappler matchup. Robertson has the grappling advantage and should exploit Rodriguez's poor takedown defense and getups. I expect Robertson to secure a submission victory.

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez as an underdog, despite originally leaning towards Gillian Robertson. He argues that Robertson's offensive wrestling isn't at the level of others who have taken Rodriguez down, and that Rodriguez will outland her on the feet. He believes Rodriguez has good takedown defense and has survived submission attempts from Mackenzie Dern. He predicts Rodriguez wins on damage, possibly by third-round TKO.

Angelo favors Gastón Bolaños due to his superior striking and durability. He believes Bolaños will engage on the feet and land the better connections, while Quang Le's takedown attempts will be ineffective. He considers the current odds range of -180 to -225 to be fair and expects Bolaños to win the majority of the time.

Big Brady leans toward Gastón Bolaños, expecting a striking battle. He notes that while Quang Le has a submission advantage on paper, Le rarely initiates wrestling and is low volume. Bolaños has improved takedown defense and higher volume with power. Brady questions both fighters' durability, as Bolaños has been finished in three of four losses and Le was recently finished by Long Xiao. He predicts Bolaños will land a knockout in the second round.

Both are solid strikers but Bolaños is the superior striker on paper. Le may try to take it to the ground, but Bolaños has shown defensive improvements. I expect Bolaños to keep it standing and pick Le apart for a decision win.

The MMA Guru picks Gastón Bolaños to win by TKO in the second or third round. He criticizes Quang Le's performance against Chris Gutierrez and believes Bolaños is tougher, more durable, and has good takedown defense and reversals. He notes Bolaños is slower but composes well and does damage on top.

Angelo sees this as a straightforward matchup: if Thomas Petersen gets takedowns, he wins; if he stays on the feet too long, he gets knocked out. He notes that Don'Tale Mayes has struggled with grapplers recently, and Petersen took down his last opponent easily. He believes Petersen's wrestling will be the deciding factor.

Big Brady is confident in Thomas Petersen, expecting his best performance to date. He highlights Petersen's wrestling background and vicious ground and pound, noting that Mayes has poor takedown defense (57%) and looks bad when taken down, citing examples like Valter Walker's heel hook and Shamil Gaz's control. He questions Mayes's motivation, pointing out his social media silence and poor shape at weigh-ins. He predicts Petersen will take Mayes down and finish him by TKO in round two.

Mayes is an average heavyweight with a 5-5 UFC record. Petersen can dictate the pace with his developing striking and mix in takedowns. I expect Petersen to grind out a decision win.

The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes as an underdog, despite acknowledging Mayes' poor record. He believes Mayes is more athletic on the feet, has a 7-inch reach advantage, and better cardio. He predicts Mayes will stuff takedowns and eventually get a TKO in round two, possibly after Petersen fails a takedown and Mayes gains top position.

Angelo acknowledges both fighters are low-level and tough, but he expects Ivana Petrović to win because she is more well-rounded and has better grappling. He notes that Juliana Miller is inexperienced and fights on instinct, which often fails her. However, he strongly advises against betting on this fight because the odds are too wide and the outcome is unpredictable.

Big Brady picks Ivana Petrović but is not confident, calling it a fight to stay away from. He notes Petrović has a significant striking advantage by default because Miller's striking defense is terrible (32%). However, he worries that both fighters accept bottom position and are submission over position, making the fight potentially messy. He expects a close competitive decision going to the judges, and he questions Miller's motivation after a long layoff and multiple surgeries.

Miller is coming off a poor performance but that was against Luana Santos, a different style opponent. She has since changed camps to Sik Jitsu and claims to be healthier than ever. I expect her to take Petrović down and grind out a decision win, surprising many.

The MMA Guru picks Ivana Petrović because Juliana Miller is 'absolutely awful' and has no business in the UFC. He notes that while Petrović isn't great either, she is more technical, bigger, and stronger. He expects a 30-27 decision win for Petrović.