Don'Tale Mayes

Angelo sees this as a straightforward matchup: if Thomas Petersen gets takedowns, he wins; if he stays on the feet too long, he gets knocked out. He notes that Don'Tale Mayes has struggled with grapplers recently, and Petersen took down his last opponent easily. He believes Petersen's wrestling will be the deciding factor.

Big Brady is confident in Thomas Petersen, expecting his best performance to date. He highlights Petersen's wrestling background and vicious ground and pound, noting that Mayes has poor takedown defense (57%) and looks bad when taken down, citing examples like Valter Walker's heel hook and Shamil Gaz's control. He questions Mayes's motivation, pointing out his social media silence and poor shape at weigh-ins. He predicts Petersen will take Mayes down and finish him by TKO in round two.

Mayes is an average heavyweight with a 5-5 UFC record. Petersen can dictate the pace with his developing striking and mix in takedowns. I expect Petersen to grind out a decision win.

Angelo hesitantly picks Valter Walker, despite his hatred for Walker's embarrassing UFC debut. He reasons that Walker has good takedowns and Mayes is useless when taken down. However, he notes Walker's striking is awful and his cardio is suspect, so if Mayes can survive early, he could win. He says he cannot bet Walker at -165.

Big Brady picks Walker by decision, citing Mayes' poor takedown defense (58%) and inability to get up once taken down. He notes Mayes has a striking advantage but lacks power to hurt Walker. Walker should get takedowns easily and control Mayes on the ground, though he lacks finishing ability.

Expecting a slow, grueling fight. Walker will likely keep Mayes in defensive positions against the cage or on the ground, using his grappling-heavy approach to nullify Mayes' offense. Walker wins on the scorecards.

Angelo is confident Gaziev bounces back from his first loss, believing he bit off more than he could chew in his last fight. He thinks Gaziev is the more powerful striker with good takedowns, and that this is a good rebound fight. He expects Gaziev to win but notes cardio concerns.

Big Brady thinks Gaziev should be able to destroy Mayes if he is anywhere near the real deal, comparing Mayes to Martin Budai whom Gaziev finished impressively. He notes Mayes does not like getting hit and has been finished on the mat multiple times. He worries about Gaziev's gas tank if the fight extends past 1.5 rounds but predicts an early finish by first-round knockout.

Cody picks Shamil Gaziev, noting that Mayes has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. He thinks Gaziev can use his wrestling and clinch to neutralize Mayes's range striking. Cody acknowledges Gaziev's cardio issues but believes in a three-round fight he can win the first two rounds. He also mentions that Mayes is flat-footed and struggles to get up when taken down.

Daniel picks Gaziev, believing he should be able to pin Mayes against the fence and dirty box him. He notes Mayes is inconsistent and has lost to lower-level competition, while Gaziev's only loss is to a top-10 guy. He expects a similar performance to Gaziev's win over Bud.

Gaziev is coming off a main event loss and will be pissed off. He should steamroll Mayes, finishing him in the first or second round.

Paul picks Shamil Gaziev, noting that Mayes has been taken down by many opponents and has poor get-up game. He thinks Gaziev can use his wrestling to control the fight. Paul acknowledges that both fighters are low-level heavyweights and that Mayes could win if he stuffs takedowns, but he leans toward Gaziev. He also mentions that the fight could be slow and the over might be a play.

Angelo picks the underdog Caio Machado, believing he is the more technical striker with better footwork. He thinks Don'Tale Mayes has one-punch power but will struggle to land big shots, and Mayes' wrestling is not great. He expects Machado to defend takedowns and win a boring, sloppy heavyweight decision. He notes Mayes is a 2-to-1 favorite but favors the dog.

Cody picks Mayes, citing his experience against better competition and his reach advantage. He thinks Mayes' jab and switch-hitting style will be effective, and that Machado's padded record and poor takedown defense will be exposed.

Daniel argues Machado is underrated, citing his striking ratio (7 strikes landed per minute, 2 absorbed) and 82% takedown defense. He calls Mayes one of the worst heavyweights, with poor fight IQ and a history of losing. He thinks Machado will win by wanting it more and having higher output.

Machado will dictate the pace and be on the front foot, pressuring Mayes. Mayes has a history of quitting when faced with resistance. Machado's BJJ and pressure style should cause Mayes issues, and I expect Machado to finish him in the second or third round.

Paul picks Machado, believing his volume striking will edge out Mayes. He notes Machado's youth and potential, but admits Mayes' takedown game could be a problem. He calls it a 50/50 fight and slightly favors Machado.

Angelo picks Nascimento, trusting his grappling and cleaner path to victory. He notes Mayes has heavy hands and power, but Nascimento has a good chin. He hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line and would bet that, expecting Mayes to be more defensively aware after their first fight. He advises not betting on sloppy heavyweight fights otherwise.

Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento to win by second-round submission. He notes that Nascimento won their first fight by submission and has improved at American Top Team. He believes Nascimento is better everywhere, with a BJJ base and 60% submission rate. He mentions Mayes has 56% takedown defense and can be taken down. He acknowledges Mayes has power but favors Nascimento.

Daniel Levi picks Rodrigo Nascimento, recalling that Nascimento dominated Mayes in their first fight, out-striking him and taking him down at will. He notes that Nascimento has been motivated in training, taking his diet and preparation seriously. Levi acknowledges Mayes' physical attributes and one-punch knockout power, but believes Nascimento's mental edge and proven superiority will carry him. He has concerns about Nascimento's chin and cardio, but still favors him to win.

James has a different take than most, believing the +160 price on Mayes is due to the previous fight result rather than skill disparity. He notes that Mayes didn't look bad in the first fight, getting up from bottom and landing decent strikes before giving up his back. He thinks if Mayes doesn't give up his back, the fight is a pick 'em. He also mentions that Nascimento is hittable and Mayes could get a knockout. However, he is not massively passionate about this pick, calling it more of a hunch.

Angelo picks Arlovski, believing he is the better fighter in every category except age and chin. He thinks Arlovski's technical striking and experience will overcome Mayes' power. He is concerned about Arlovski's chin after the last fight but still expects him to win. He would bet Arlovski if the line keeps moving.

Cody picks Arlovski, agreeing with Paul. He notes that middling heavyweights often go to decision and that Arlovski is a fan favorite who gets close decisions. Cody points out that Mayes doesn't use his physical advantages and that Arlovski's experience and durability will carry him. He also mentions that Mayes has been knocked out by lesser fighters and that Arlovski is the safer pick.

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Mayes is a 'giant ball of wasted potential' who has never realized his athletic gifts. He points out that Arlovski has consistently beaten lower-tier heavyweights who lack a real striking game or finishing ability. Mayes' tendency to throw single strikes and his poor grappling will be exploited by Arlovski's steady pressure and clinch work.

Daniel picks Arlovski, though he admits he hasn't taped the fight deeply. He thinks Mayes has mental fragility and Arlovski's veteran savvy could eke out a decision. He notes that Arlovski has been quitting in fights but Mayes may not bring that out of him. He considers a sprinkle on Arlovski by decision.

Jacob picks Mayes, citing his speed and athleticism advantage over the 44-year-old Arlovski. He thinks Mayes should use range and volume to break down Arlovski's chin. He notes Arlovski looked old and uninterested in his last fight. Jacob is betting $100 on Mayes at +120.

Mayes is a hybrid heavyweight who mixes takedowns behind punches and works well in the clinch. Arlovski is reliant on striking and tends to quit when grappling gets tough. Mayes will tie him up, land takedowns, and control the fight to win a decision. The over 2.5 is the preferred bet.

Paul picks Arlovski at plus money. He notes Mayes has low output and doesn't use his reach or speed advantage. Paul mentions Arlovski's recent wins over low-output fighters and that the UFC seems to give him favorable matchups. He thinks Mayes is overrated as a favorite and that Arlovski can squeak out a decision. Paul also recalls losing money on Mayes in the past, making him hesitant to trust him.

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski, believing this is one of the heavyweight fights Arlovski wins. He criticizes Don'Tale Mayes for being hesitant on the feet and getting blanketed by Augusto Sakai. He expects Arlovski to frustrate Mayes at range with leg kicks and small shots, while Mayes will be gun-shy and not throw enough. He acknowledges an upset is possible but thinks Arlovski's skill at this level of heavyweight will take over.

Connor picks Sakai, believing he can edge out a win by slowing the fight down with clinch work and using his durability. He notes that Mayes' inability to hit the same spot repeatedly makes it unlikely he'll knock Sakai out, and Sakai will do just enough work to pull out a decision. Connor acknowledges it's a close fight and that Sakai's confidence may be shaken, but he trusts Sakai's meat-and-potatoes approach over Mayes' chaos.

Big Brady picks Don'Tale Mayes to win by knockout in the second or third round. He is very critical of Abdelwahab's level of competition, cardio, and ground game, calling him not UFC caliber. He expects Mayes to use his size advantage and eventually finish Abdelwahab as he slows down.

Cody picks Mayes, noting that Abdelwahab is a short-notice replacement who didn't earn his way to the UFC. He describes Abdelwahab as an Egyptian wrestling champion but with a small wrestling program, and his striking is very rudimentary. Mayes has a huge size advantage (6'6" with 81" reach) and has been improving his grappling. He thinks Mayes will feast on Abdelwahab, staying on the outside and chopping away. He also mentions he got Mayes at -125 earlier.

Daniel picks Mayes on principle, citing his experience and dues paid. He notes Mayes has fought tougher competition, including Ciryl Gane, and has a two-fight win streak. He heavily criticizes Abdelwahab's resume, calling his opponents 'ice cream vendors' and noting he has only 3 pro fights, all mismatches. He also questions the level of Egyptian Greco-Roman wrestling, citing a friend who said it's not comparable to US or Russian wrestling. He acknowledges Mayes isn't elite but believes experience will prevail.

Preet bet Mayes at -132, noting Hamdi's sketchy competition and poor cardio. He expects Mayes to keep distance with his jab and footwork, survive the first round, and take over as Hamdi slows down. He references Mayes' wrestling-heavy win over Josh Parisian as evidence of his late-round finishing ability.

Paul also picks Mayes, agreeing that Abdelwahab is a short-notice replacement who is not a legitimate prospect. He notes that Mayes has been improving, with good wins over Josh Parisian and Roque Martinez. He thinks Mayes' size and reach advantage will be key, and that Abdelwahab's wrestling won't be enough. He also mentions that Mayes has been working on his grappling and shouldn't be mistaken for the same guy from a few fights back.

Angelo picks Josh Parisian because he believes Parisian's chin will hold up against Mayes' power, and that Parisian has a slightly better gas tank and higher output. He notes that Parisian set the UFC significant strike record at heavyweight in his fight with Parker Porter, showing constant forward pressure. However, Angelo's biggest fear is a Mayes KO early, as Mayes has heavy hands. He thinks the odds are too wide in favor of Mayes and that this should be closer to a pick'em.

Big Brady picks the underdog Josh Parisian, liking his volume and toughness despite poor striking defense. He notes Parisian's gas tank is not great but he fights through it. He expects a sloppy fight and predicts Parisian wins a volume-based decision. He admits no one can be confident in this low-level fight.

Cody slightly favors Mayes due to superior cardio and reach. He notes Mayes uses a good jab and stays on the outside, while Parisian gasses quickly. However, Cody doesn't like the -200 price and calls it a pass, suggesting live betting might be better.

Daniel Levi picks Don'Tale Mayes to win, though he is not sure how. He acknowledges Mayes's physical gifts (6'6", 81-inch reach) and decent striking, but notes he underperforms and slows down. Levi is unimpressed with Josh Parisian, who absorbs too many strikes and has poor defense. He believes Mayes's youth and athleticism should prevail, and expects Mayes to land the harder shots and possibly get a finish. Levi warns that Parisian could win a decision if Mayes fades, but still picks Mayes.

Jacob picks Josh Parisian but calls it a coin flip, expecting a sloppy fight. He notes that both fighters like to throw spinning attacks and that Parisian is slightly less sloppy with his hands higher. Jacob mentions that Mayes' hands are often low and he does wild spinning stuff. He doesn't feel great about the pick but leans Parisian.

The host leans towards Mayes by decision, noting that Mayes is more mobile and can stick and move, while Parisian is slow and plods forward. He thinks the fight goes to decision and likes the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +105. He is not confident enough to lay -200 on Mayes moneyline.

Paul leans Parisian as a dog, citing his higher volume and pressure. He notes that both fighters gas, but Parisian throws more. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and would take the plus money if forced to bet.

Big Brady picks Mayes due to significant height and reach advantages, and higher output. He expects a boring, low-output heavyweight fight and does not see a finish. He thinks the line is too wide and is not betting, but suggests the over 1.5 rounds has value.

Daniel picks Mayes by default, noting that Martinez is out of shape and should not be fighting. He acknowledges Mayes has had embarrassing losses but thinks his size and athleticism will prevail against an overweight opponent. He says if Martinez were in shape, he would pick him, but as it stands, Mayes should win.

Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento (Rogério) to win by submission in the first round. He notes that Mayes has been taken down and submitted before, and Nascimento is very good on the ground. He acknowledges that on the feet it could be dicey due to Mayes' size and power, but believes Nascimento will get the takedown and finish quickly.

Daniel Levi leans with Rodrigo Nascimento due to his advantage on the mat. He notes that Mayes has an unorthodox striking style but suspect ground game and cardio. He acknowledges limited footage on Nascimento but believes his jiu-jitsu brown belt and training at ATT give him the edge. He has no confidence in this pick.