Mohammed Usman

Angelo picks Hamdy Abdelwahab but with significant reservations. He notes that Hamdy is an Olympic wrestler but has looked sloppy, gasses easily, and hasn't shown good cardio. He mentions that Mohammed Usman is big and athletic but may not be fully committed, citing an interview where his brother said he's on the fence about continuing. Angelo ultimately fades both for fantasy but picks Hamdy due to the potential for takedowns if Usman is not prepared.

Big Brady picks Hamdy Abdelwahab but is not excited about the fight. He expects Abdelwahab to get a takedown in the first round, gas out, and then the fight becomes a low-volume affair going to decision. He thinks Abdelwahab clearly lost his last fight but will get the nod from judges. He predicts Abdelwahab by decision and says he will look to fade him in the future.

Connor agrees, noting that Usman is built like a superhuman but fights like he wants to flitter around with jabs, and struggles against steady aggression. He points out that Abdelwahab is a crazy aggressive guy who will pressure Usman, and the only risk is gassing out. Connor believes Usman's lack of fight IQ and aggression will be his downfall.

The host is not a big believer in Abdelwahab but thinks Usman is not good either. He expects Abdelwahab's aggressiveness and wrestling threat to keep Usman moving backward, allowing Abdelwahab to grind out a decision win.

The MMA Guru picks Mohammed Usman as an underdog, calling Hamdy Abdelwahab 'absolute garbage' and a 'fat sack of garbage'. He believes the odds are skewed because Abdelwahab is undefeated, but sees the fight as 50/50. He expects Usman's reach advantage and better conditioning to allow him to outpoint Abdelwahab in the later rounds, predicting a 29-28 decision.

Angelo picks Mohammed Usman because he is the larger, more physically imposing fighter with a brick for a head and decent power. He notes that neither fighter is very good or entertaining, and that Usman's takedown defense should hold up against Petersen's wrestling. However, he explicitly says he cannot bet on low-level heavyweight fights, so this is a lean with no stake.

Cody picks Petersen, noting his youth (29) and wrestling pedigree. He thinks if Petersen can get takedowns, he can control Usman. He admits Usman has better striking and cardio but believes Petersen's southpaw stance and sophomore improvement could be factors. He calls it a dogger pass situation and sides with the underdog.

Daniel Vreeland picks Mohammed Usman, noting his improvements and ability to last three rounds. He believes Usman can defend takedowns and tire out Petersen, who gasses when his takedown game fails. Vreeland expects Usman to take over late in the fight.

Petersen is a slight dog at +110. He has a wrestling-heavy approach but needs to improve his striking to avoid being picked apart. Usman is not as crisp a striker as Jamal Pogues, which could allow Petersen to have more success with his wrestling. Petersen's pressure and pace should wear down Usman around the 6-minute mark, leading to a decision win. However, I need to see improvements in Petersen's striking before I'm confident enough to invest heavily.

Paul picks Usman, citing his wrestling background, takedown defense (never taken down in UFC), and better striking. He thinks Petersen's wrestling won't be effective and that Usman will edge a decision or get a late finish. He calls the line very playable.

Angelo picks Mick Parkin because he is the more technical fighter with sharper striking and slightly better takedowns. He expects a boring, slow, sloppy heavyweight decision, possibly with a stoppage from Parkin via takedown and ground control. He will stay away from betting unless the over 1.5 rounds line is available, which he would hammer.

Big Brady picks Mick Parkin, believing the fight will primarily be standing. He notes Parkin's striking looked good in his debut but was inconsistent against Kyle Machado. He thinks Parkin will land more strikes at range, while Usman has low volume and relies on power. Brady doubts Usman can knock out Parkin and expects a decision win for Parkin.

Cody picks Parkin, citing his size, mobility, and superior boxing. He criticizes Usman's low output and lack of power. Cody believes Parkin will outwork Usman and win a decision.

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Mohammed Usman, admiring his ability to find a way to win even in ugly fights. He notes Usman has power and wrestling, and can take Parkin down. He thinks Parkin is the cleaner striker but Usman's physicality and grit could carry him.

Parkin has a great gas tank for a heavyweight, good output, and excellent scrambling ability. He will pressure Usman, who has a low-volume kickboxing style and tends to slow down late. Parkin can win by decision or even snatch a late submission, as Usman has been submitted before. Usman's only path is a flash KO, but Parkin should control the fight.

Paul picks Parkin, noting his training with Tom Aspinall and his ability to go the distance. He acknowledges the line movement toward Usman but still favors Parkin's overall game.

Angelo picks Usman due to size and speed advantage, but notes Collier has a great chin, busy jab, and more experience. He thinks Collier could win a close decision. He is not confident and only considers betting the over 1.5 rounds if available.

Big Brady picks Jake Collier with low confidence, calling the fight a mess. He notes Collier is the better striker by far, has a wrestling background, and appears to be in better shape after dropping weight. He worries about Collier's grappling at heavyweight but believes he can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing. He is not betting this fight.

Cody picks Jake Collier as a live underdog, citing his volume and speed advantage if his cardio holds. He notes Usman's low output and stiffness. He is encouraged by Collier looking trimmer on social media and thinks if Collier can last past the first round, he wins.

Daniel picks Usman confidently, comparing Collier to Jared Vandera as a fan-favorite who loses. He notes Collier is 2-5 at heavyweight and was finished by Chris Barnett. He thinks Usman's physicality and takedowns will be too much, and Collier has never faced a takedown attempt at heavyweight. He expects Usman to control and possibly finish.

Lucrative James picks Collier, believing he should be favored. He notes Collier's high volume and finishing upside, while Usman lacks finishing ability. He thinks Collier can win by decision or finish, and sees value at plus 150. He acknowledges Collier's cardio issues but expects him to do enough early.

The host picks Collier as a live underdog, expecting the best version of him given his improved shape and urgency. He notes Collier has advantages in combination striking and volume, and that Usman is a low-volume kickboxer who may struggle if he can't grapple. He predicts a decision win for Collier and also likes the over 2.5 rounds prop.

Paul sides with Collier at plus money, noting Usman's low volume (7 significant strikes in his last fight). He thinks Collier's experience and volume will be too much if he doesn't gas. He mentions Collier's takedown defense against Buday.

Angelo picks Junior Tafa but is hesitant, calling it a sketchy pick. He notes Tafa's power, speed, and technical kickboxing, but questions his takedown defense. He bet $25 on Tafa at -195 as an experiment based on line movement (Tafa opened as underdog, now favorite). He acknowledges the risk and advises not to blindly tail.

Big Brady picks Mohammad Usman to win by a greasy decision, but he wants nothing to do with this fight from a betting perspective. He notes that Usman's path to victory is to wrestle and take the fight to the mat, as Tafa is a much better striker but has questionable takedown defense and cardio. However, Brady is not confident in Usman, calling him 'very bad' and noting he got lucky in his last fight. He also mentions the wild line movement but stayed away from betting it.

Cody picks Tafa, calling him a world-class kickboxer while Usman is not good. He criticizes Usman's wrestling, cardio, and tendency to rely on one-punch power. Cody notes Usman's wins on The Ultimate Fighter were close and he struggled against older competition. He believes Tafa will win by knockout if the fight stays standing, which is likely.

Connor picks Mohammed Usman, reasoning that Usman is much bigger and stronger than Tafa, and that neither fighter is likely to get knocked out. He expects a wild brawl for five minutes followed by a slog, and thinks Usman's size will allow him to hold Tafa enough to win. Connor notes that Usman hits like a truck and has never been knocked out.

Mohammad Usman has a massive experience advantage over Junior Tafa, who has less than a year of MMA experience. Usman is a mediocre fighter but has fought higher-level competition. Tafa is a raw kickboxer with poor takedown defense, as seen in his regional fights. Usman should be able to take the fight to the ground and grind out a decision or TKO. The odds have moved significantly in Tafa's favor, but Usman's MMA experience should prevail.

Paul also picks Tafa, agreeing with Cody. He notes that if Usman doesn't shoot for takedowns, Tafa will likely clip him. Paul acknowledges the risk that Usman could use wrestling, but doubts he will. He calls it a low-level heavyweight fight where anything can happen.

The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa, going against Mohammad Usman. He sees no skill in Usman's game and notes Tafa's combat sports experience in boxing, kickboxing, and Muay Thai. He thinks Tafa's activity and momentum are advantages, and that Usman is unimpressive with losses to Brandon Sales and a split decision over Eduardo Perez. He predicts a first-round KO.

Angelo has a slight lean towards Mohammed Usman due to his size, power, and physicality. He notes that Pauga is the better overall fighter but his size disadvantage at heavyweight could be decisive. He references Pauga being dropped by Terence Jacquez and believes a similar shot from Usman could finish him. However, he acknowledges Usman has had issues with wrestlers in the past.

Big Brady picks Zac Pauga, noting his speed and cardio advantages over Mohammed Usman. He criticizes Usman's low volume and poor cardio, and praises Pauga's takedown defense and improved striking. He predicts Pauga will stuff takedowns and win a decision, though he notes Pauga is undersized for heavyweight. He also mentions Pauga's training at Elevation Fight Team with Curtis Blaydes.

Cody also picks Pauga, highlighting his undefeated record and clean performances on TUF. He notes that Pauga is a natural 205-pounder who moved up for the show and will likely move back down. Cody contrasts Pauga's refined skills with Usman's poor losses and questionable wins, including a controversial decision. He believes Pauga's speed and output will overwhelm Usman.

Paul picks Pauga, noting that Pauga is a former football player with good mobility and athleticism. He mentions that Pauga looked impressive on The Ultimate Fighter, throwing spinning attacks and showing improvement. Paul is wary of laying -250 on a debuting heavyweight but sees Pauga as the clear pick.