Career Averages - Yanal Ashmouz
Career Averages - Sam Patterson
Yanal Ashmouz
Sam Patterson
Yanal Ashmouz - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quillan Salkilld | 0 | 79 of 124 | 63% | 89 of 135 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 7:35 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 41 of 78 | 52% | 65 of 106 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quillan Salkilld | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 24 of 32 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 2:45 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 26 of 41 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:19 | |
| 2 | Quillan Salkilld | 0 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 23 of 41 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:30 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 15 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | Quillan Salkilld | 0 | 40 of 60 | 66% | 42 of 62 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quillan Salkilld | 79 of 124 | 63% | 54 of 98 | 18 of 19 | 7 of 7 | 51 of 82 | 15 of 22 | 13 of 20 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 41 of 78 | 52% | 31 of 64 | 7 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 54 | 14 of 17 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quillan Salkilld | 19 of 27 | 70% | 11 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 18 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 14 of 25 | 56% | 11 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Quillan Salkilld | 20 of 37 | 54% | 16 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 13 | 2 of 6 | 12 of 18 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 8 of 12 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Quillan Salkilld | 40 of 60 | 66% | 27 of 47 | 11 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 51 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 2 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 19 of 41 | 46% | 15 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 30 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Salkilld (-485), Ashmouz (+370)
Round 1
Lightweight action continues with Gasper Oliver as the referee. Salkilld and his mustache open the fight with a jab. Ashmouz wastes no time getting in close and clinching. Salkilld gets back to his feet after being tossed to the ground, but can't exit the clinch. Not a problem as Salkilld gets a takedown as Ashmouz gives up his back before standing back up. Ashmouz uses a fence grab to prevent another takedown. Salkilld now controlling the grappling exchange, landing knees and short elbows. Ashmouz eats a knee and finally backs off. Salkilld lands a hard low kick. A nice uppercut from Salkilld, who then gets a brief takedown. Ashmouz works his way back to his feet. Salkilld then carries Ashmouz and slams his foe down, showing that he's dominant in all facets of this match. Ashmouz is trying to get back up but is eating punches. Another fence grab from Ashmouz. Nice knee to the body from Salkilld as they're both against the fence. Beautiful throw by Salkilld, who then takes the back of Ashmouz. Salkilld loses position with 20 seconds left and then gets back to his feet. Both men throw wildly, and Ashmouz lands a nice left hook before the round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Salkilld
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salkilld
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Salkilld
Round 2
Salkilld eats a heavy leg kick to start the second frame. Ashmouz then gives up yet another takedown as Salkilld enters half guard. Ashmouz is able to get back to his feet but is dragged back down. Salkilld sneaking punches under the arm to the face of Ashmouz. Salkilld can't keep his opponent down, but stuffs a takedown attempt from Ashmouz and then drags him down again. This round is all Salkilld, who takes the back of his opponent and lands some punishing punches. Ashmouz is able to get back up but is still in the clinch. The grappling of Salkilld is smothering, and he gets yet another takedown as he throws his opponent to the ground. They're back on their feet, and Ashmouz uses leg kicks to manage distance. Ashmouz grabs the neck of Salkilld during a takedown attempt, and the round expires with the two clinched against the fence.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Salkilld
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salkilld
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Salkilld
Round 3
Ashmouz lands a big left hook. Salkilld answers back with a kick to the body and uses his range to land a standing elbow. Big left hook and a straight right from Ashmouz hurts him! Salkilld composes himself and lands a knee. Ashmouz gets reckless and gives up the takedown. That might've been his best chance in the fight. Ashmouz gets back up, but Salkilld is kneeing his legs and looking to drag him back down. A big right hook lands for Ashmouz. Salkilld is being backed up to the cage and is eating shots as a result. Another left hook for Ashmouz lands before a leg kick. Nice uppercut from Ashmouz, who is looking to finish this fight. Salkilld answers back with a left hook to the body. Ashmouz walks into a right hand, but follows it up with two swinging hooks that find their mark. Salkilld can't get a takedown and then eats a left hand. Ashmouz throws a head kick but slips, costing him precious time. One minute left, and Ashmouz is throwing hands while Salkilld is desperate to grapple. They clinch with Salkilld being able to slow this fight down. Ashmouz rolls to the ground and lands some punches in desperation as the round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ashmouz (29-28 Salkilld)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ashmouz (29-28 Salkilld)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ashmouz (29-28 Salkilld)
The Official Result
Quillan Salkilld def. Yanal Ashmouz via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28); R3, 5:00.
Angelo picks Quillan Salkilld, citing his striking advantage and ability to defend takedowns. He thinks Yanal will be forced to shoot early due to Quillan's striking. He warns Quillan not to pull guard. He has reservations about the 4-to-1 odds but still picks Quillan.
Big Brady picks Quillan Salkilld, liking his striking, volume, cardio, and size. He thinks Salkilld will win handily, likely by 30-27 decision, but notes the line is wide. He believes Ashmouz is a decent fighter but will be undersized and at a grappling disadvantage. He does not expect a finish.
Salkilld has a skill advantage that should be the difference maker. He needs to maintain distance to avoid Ashmouz's physicality and grinding. The pick is for Salkilld to outdamage and outpoint Ashmouz on the way to a decision victory.
The MMA Guru picks Quillan Salkilld to win, but criticizes the odds of -455 as too high, suggesting he should be around -200. He expects Salkilld to get a finish in the later rounds or win a decision, noting that Yanal Ashmouz has power and knocked out Sam Patterson. He acknowledges Salkilld is not invincible and has been hit before, but believes his technical skills will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 55 of 107 | 51% | 63 of 115 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Trevor Peek | 0 | 42 of 66 | 63% | 85 of 124 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 8:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Trevor Peek | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 | |
| 2 | Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 22 of 33 | 66% | 23 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Trevor Peek | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 36 of 48 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 | |
| 3 | Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 17 of 41 | 41% | 22 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Trevor Peek | 0 | 28 of 39 | 71% | 37 of 53 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yanal Ashmouz | 55 of 107 | 51% | 29 of 78 | 18 of 21 | 8 of 8 | 48 of 99 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevor Peek | 42 of 66 | 63% | 26 of 48 | 9 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 41 | 18 of 20 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yanal Ashmouz | 16 of 33 | 48% | 6 of 21 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevor Peek | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yanal Ashmouz | 22 of 33 | 66% | 11 of 21 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 28 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevor Peek | 10 of 16 | 62% | 7 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Yanal Ashmouz | 17 of 41 | 41% | 12 of 36 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevor Peek | 28 of 39 | 71% | 15 of 26 | 7 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 23 | 11 of 11 | 5 of 5 |
Angelo picks Yanal Ashmouz because he is the better fighter skill-for-skill, with technique everywhere, but he is hesitant because Trevor Peek is incredibly durable and has insane pressure. He notes that Yanal is still a dog and he has a bet on him, but he has buyer's remorse after watching Peek's toughness. He hopes Yanal doesn't break.
Big Brady picks Yanal Ashmouz as the underdog but says he wants nothing to do with betting on this fight. He describes it as a chaotic, back-and-forth war that likely goes to decision, with both guys having moments. Brady likes Ashmouz's ability to land big shots and mix in takedowns, but admits the fight could go either way.
Cody echoes Paul's sentiment, praising Peek's chin, heart, and relentless pressure. He notes Ashmouz's lack of grappling and tendency to get taken down, while Peek's wrestling has improved. He expects Peek to walk through Ashmouz's strikes and land a knockout.
Daniel is a fan of Trevor Peek's fighting style and believes Ashmouz is KO-or-bust. He criticizes Ashmouz's low volume and reliance on one big shot, and thinks Peek can outwork him to a decision or catch him. He notes that Ashmouz struggled when he couldn't get the knockout against Chris Duncan. Daniel sees multiple paths to victory for Peek.
Peek is durable, aggressive, and has never been finished. Ashmouz hits hard but may struggle to keep the fight at range. In a pocket exchange, Peek's power and chin could prevail. However, the host prefers to watch rather than bet heavily, as this fight reveals ceilings for both.
Paul is a fan of Peek's style and believes his durability, pressure, and power will overwhelm Ashmouz, who is more technical but lacks grappling and has shown vulnerability to pressure. He notes Ashmouz's poor takedown defense and tendency to fade. He picks Peek by KO.
The MMA Guru picks Yanal Ashmouz over Trevor Peek. He praises Ashmouz's power and notes he fought Chris Duncan with a broken arm and still went to a decision. He believes Peek is too hittable and that Ashmouz is primed to land big KO blows. He predicts a TKO win for Ashmouz, though he admits he will be rooting for Peek.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Duncan | 0 | 85 of 206 | 41% | 87 of 209 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 35 of 98 | 35% | 36 of 100 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Duncan | 0 | 19 of 60 | 31% | 19 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 9 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Chris Duncan | 0 | 26 of 60 | 43% | 26 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Chris Duncan | 0 | 40 of 86 | 46% | 42 of 89 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 13 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Duncan | 85 of 206 | 41% | 54 of 161 | 23 of 30 | 8 of 15 | 82 of 200 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 35 of 98 | 35% | 15 of 68 | 8 of 14 | 12 of 16 | 34 of 96 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Duncan | 19 of 60 | 31% | 11 of 46 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 9 | 19 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 9 of 28 | 32% | 4 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Duncan | 26 of 60 | 43% | 12 of 41 | 12 of 14 | 2 of 5 | 26 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 14 of 36 | 38% | 6 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Chris Duncan | 40 of 86 | 46% | 31 of 74 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 37 of 80 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 12 of 34 | 35% | 5 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 8 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo likes Chris Duncan's forward pressure and grit, noting that Duncan has been dropped but never out of a fight. He questions Yanal Ashmouz's takedown defense and thinks Duncan's wrestling will be a factor. He has placed a half-unit bet on Duncan at near even money.
Big Brady picks Shauna Bannon as a dog, but admits he hates the pick and won't bet it. He thinks Bannon has a path to victory through wrestling, as Brasil has poor takedown defense (45%). He notes Brasil is the more skilled striker but looked awful in her debut. He is not high on either fighter.
Cody picks Ashmouz, citing his power and aggression. He notes Duncan was knocked out by Borshchev and has suspect durability. He thinks Ashmouz's wrestling and power are advantages, and likes the plus money.
Daniel leans toward Chris Duncan, citing his improved grappling and cage work shown in his last fight, as well as his physicality. He notes Duncan is training at ATT and getting high-level looks. However, he is not sold on Duncan's durability and thinks he is hittable. He is not interested in betting Duncan at -140 due to the unknowns about Ashmouz. He says he needs to see more from both fighters.
James picks Chris Duncan to win. He thinks Duncan is a better striker overall, with size and reach advantages. He believes Ashmouz will struggle to wrestle Duncan, making it a striking fight where Duncan has the edge. James notes that Ashmouz was a +300 underdog in his last fight and is now -110, which he sees as a market overcorrection. He acknowledges that both fighters have knockout power and the fight is volatile, but he favors Duncan.
The host picks Yanal Ashmouz, citing his durability, explosiveness, and power to find an early finish. He expects both to grapple initially but thinks it becomes a fistfight where Ashmouz's power prevails. He suggests the fight doesn't go to decision and that unders are safe.
Paul picks Ashmouz, recalling his KO of Sam Patterson. He thinks Duncan is stiff and hittable, and Ashmouz's power is a real threat. He notes Duncan's wrestling looked good against Morales but still favors the dog.
The MMA Guru picks Yanal Ashmouz, calling Chris Duncan's favorite status 'straight up incorrect odds'. He criticizes Duncan's UFC debut as one of the worst, showing no skill on the feet and a slow grappling game against an older Omar Morales. He notes Duncan has been finished before on the Contender Series. The Guru highlights Ashmouz's explosiveness and KO power, predicting a first-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 15 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 15 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yanal Ashmouz | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 15 of 20 | 75% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yanal Ashmouz | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 15 of 20 | 75% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
Angelo is on the underdog Ashmouz, having placed a quarter-unit bet at +230. He thinks Patterson is overrated because he is tall but does not use his length well in striking and is very hittable. He notes Ashmouz is well-rounded, comes forward, and has a solid chin. He believes Ashmouz can overwhelm Patterson.
Big Brady picks Patterson despite many red flags (poor striking defense, poor takedown defense). He is impressed by Patterson's submission game and believes he will find a submission win. He predicts a second-round submission, but notes he will look to fade Patterson in the future. He will not bet this fight at -260.
Cody picks Patterson, citing his size (6'3", 78" reach) and well-rounded skills. He notes Patterson has fought good competition on the regional scene and has a nasty guillotine. He thinks Ashmouz will struggle to get inside and take Patterson down, and even if he does, Patterson can get back up. He says minus 270 is a bit steep for a UFC debut but Patterson should win.
Connor picks Ashmouz, citing his violent grappling and punching power. He notes that Patterson is a tall, gangly fighter with gaps in his game, especially when pressured. Connor expects Ashmouz to close the distance, take Patterson down, and punish him on the ground, despite the significant size disadvantage.
Jacob is also on Ashmouz, criticizing Patterson's striking as resembling a high schooler with no power and a chin up in the air. He thinks Ashmouz's pressure and wrestling will be too much, and Patterson does not like to get hit. He expects Ashmouz to control the fight on the feet and on the ground.
Patterson uses his long frame to pick opponents apart from distance and has a dangerous guillotine choke when they shoot. Ashmouz is wild and reckless, crashing the pocket with overhands, which could lead to a desperation takedown. Patterson should eventually snatch up a submission. The fight doesn't go to decision is the preferred bet.
Paul picks Patterson, noting Ashmouz didn't impress in his PFL fight. He says Patterson's size and reach are huge advantages, and Ashmouz is giving up tons of size. He says there is some action on Ashmouz but it won't be him. He says Patterson is the pick but minus 270 is not a great price.
The MMA Guru picks Sam Patterson to win by late-round submission, likely a guillotine. He praises Patterson's calmness and ability to latch on finishes, despite early trouble. He notes Patterson has faced tough competition outside the UK, including a draw with Ahmed Amir and a loss to a Dagestani fighter, which gives him valuable experience. He expects Patterson to weather early adversity and find a choke.
Zane also picks Ashmouz, agreeing that Patterson's defensive flaws and tendency to get hit will be exploited. He notes that Patterson has some interesting tall-man skills but is too uncoordinated and hittable. Zane believes Ashmouz's takedown game and top pressure will be decisive.
Sam Patterson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Page | 0 | 27 of 55 | 49% | 33 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 12 of 64 | 18% | 25 of 78 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Page | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Page | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 2 of 26 | 7% | 5 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 3 | Michael Page | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 6 of 27 | 22% | 16 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Page | 27 of 55 | 49% | 17 of 38 | 4 of 8 | 6 of 9 | 27 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 12 of 64 | 18% | 4 of 50 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 8 | 10 of 60 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Page | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 4 of 11 | 36% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Page | 10 of 24 | 41% | 6 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 4 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 2 of 26 | 7% | 1 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Page | 12 of 19 | 63% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 6 of 27 | 22% | 1 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michael Page with extreme confidence, calling it the easiest money. He notes MVP is faster, cleaner, more powerful, and more technical everywhere. He believes Sam Patterson is chinny and that MVP should dominate. He references MVP's public complaints about the matchup.
Big Brady confidently picks Michael Page, praising his unique striking and ability to avoid being hit. He notes that Page out-lands opponents at distance and that Sam Patterson has sub-50% striking defense and a suspect chin. He thinks Page will style on Patterson and potentially knock him out, predicting a second-round KO. However, he acknowledges that if Patterson gets the fight to the ground, he could win.
Cody agrees with Paul, citing Page's experience against bigger opponents and Patterson's durability issues. He sees Page winning by KO or decision.
Connor picks Page, agreeing with Zane that Page is a clear favorite. He emphasizes that Page's style of moving around, mocking opponents, and landing clean shots is a nightmare for Patterson, who wants to step in and crack opponents. Connor notes that Page has shown he can remain calm against good fighters in the UFC, and Patterson's only path is if Page makes a rare mistake. He calls the booking a waste of both fighters' time.
Daniel initially thought MVP would style on Patterson, but after analysis, he sees Patterson as a live dog if he can get the fight to the mat. He notes MVP's age, speed decline, and past takedown issues. He thinks Patterson might be able to capitalize on MVP's vulnerabilities.
Daniel Vreeland picks Sam Patterson as an underdog. He notes that MVP is older and dropping back down to welterweight, and Patterson has a strong submission game. If Patterson can get the fight to the ground, he can submit MVP.
This is a true 50/50 fight: Page has striking advantage, Patterson has grappling advantage. Patterson is the value bet at underdog odds. If Patterson grapples, he can submit or ground-and-pound Page. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.
James picks Sam Patterson as a big underdog, believing Patterson's grappling is a massive threat. He notes that Page is a great striker but can be taken down, and Patterson has submission skills. He also cites Patterson's hunger and age advantage, and thinks the odds are off.
The host picks Michael Page by knockout. He believes Page's speed and counter-striking will be too much for Patterson, who may struggle to land cleanly. He expects Patterson to get frustrated and walk into a big shot. However, he notes the lack of reach advantage for Page could be a factor.
Paul thinks Page's speed and striking will be too much for Patterson, who stands upright and is hittable. He expects a KO or clear decision for Page.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Venom Page to win by TKO, his first UFC finish. He notes Patterson is upright and has been caught with straight punches, while MVP is a crafty striker with underrated submission defense. He acknowledges Patterson's jiu-jitsu threat but believes MVP's range and timing will lead to a knockdown and finish.
Zane picks Page confidently, stating that Page is almost certain to beat Patterson. He notes that Page is the king of never getting shook up and always fights to his plan, while Patterson is an opportunistic finisher who relies on aggression and fear. Zane believes Patterson's style of pushing into the pocket and having terrible defense is perfect for Page to pick apart. He acknowledges a small chance Patterson could catch Page if Page times something wrong, but sees Page as a clear favorite.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 25 of 48 | 52% | 25 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trey Waters | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Patterson | 0 | 25 of 48 | 52% | 25 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trey Waters | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Patterson | 25 of 48 | 52% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trey Waters | 18 of 38 | 47% | 9 of 23 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Patterson | 25 of 48 | 52% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trey Waters | 18 of 38 | 47% | 9 of 23 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Trey Waters, citing his toughness, speed, power, and similar reach advantage. He criticizes Sam Patterson's poor striking defense and chin-up stance. He notes that Patterson's length advantage is neutralized by Waters' even longer reach. The only concern is Waters' year-long layoff and potential weight cut issues. He plans to bet on Waters if he makes weight and looks good at weigh-ins.
Big Brady leans toward Sam Patterson, citing his grappling advantage and submission threat. He notes Patterson's striking defense is poor but believes his move to welterweight helps his chin. He predicts a second-round submission, as Waters was submitted in his only loss.
The host notes Patterson is in a groove with a three-fight winning streak and is comfortable at 170 lbs. He expects Patterson to counter-strike Waters, shut down his jab, take him to the ground, and use his BJJ black belt to force a submission.
The Guru picks Sam Patterson, highlighting his reach advantage and well-rounded game since moving to welterweight. He notes Patterson's finishing potential in multiple areas, including submissions and TKO, and contrasts that with Trey Waters' lack of a plan B. He predicts a submission win, possibly a rear-naked choke, after some striking exchanges.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Barlow | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sam Patterson | 1 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Barlow | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sam Patterson | 1 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Barlow | 15 of 30 | 50% | 10 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 18 of 34 | 52% | 14 of 28 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Barlow | 15 of 30 | 50% | 10 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 18 of 34 | 52% | 14 of 28 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
Angelo picks Danny Barlow, noting his longer reach and better use of range compared to Sam Patterson, who relies too much on his length. He believes Barlow will control the striking and potentially find a finish, though he has concerns about Barlow's ground game if the fight goes there. He sees Patterson as unlikely to win.
Big Brady picks Danny Barlow, citing his powerful left hand and Sam Patterson's poor striking defense. He notes Patterson's chin is exposed and he's been knocked out before. He predicts a first-round knockout, but warns that if the fight goes to the ground, Patterson could be dangerous.
Connor picks Barlow all day, emphasizing that Patterson's defense is still awful and he is unconscionably hittable. He notes that Barlow has size parity and is a good athlete who fights at range, which will force Patterson to reach and expose his chin. Connor recalls his previous criticism of Patterson and sees this as a clear win for Barlow.
The host expects a fun striking battle where Patterson may try to take the fight to the ground, but Barlow's wrestling defense will keep it upright. He believes Barlow's power striking, specifically his left straight, will catch Patterson and knock him out clean.
The Guru picks Sam Patterson as an underdog over Danny Barlow. He believes Patterson's grappling and reach advantage will be key, and that he can avoid Barlow's power. He notes Patterson's submission wins at 170 and his experience at 155. He predicts a submission win, likely a rear-naked choke in the first or second round.
Zane picks Barlow confidently, noting that Barlow is a long-range outboxer who just fought a similar tall fighter and was comfortable. He points out that Patterson's defense is awful and his chin is exposed, and Barlow has size parity, negating Patterson's usual advantages. Zane sees this as a nightmare matchup for Patterson.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 13 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Kiefer Crosbie | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Patterson | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 13 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Kiefer Crosbie | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Patterson | 9 of 26 | 34% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kiefer Crosbie | 9 of 16 | 56% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Patterson | 9 of 26 | 34% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kiefer Crosbie | 9 of 16 | 56% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Sam Patterson as the better overall fighter, but warns not to bet on him due to his history of getting knocked out. He notes that Patterson should wrestle early to avoid Crosbie's power. Angelo recalls Patterson's previous loss as a big favorite and advises caution.
Cody picks Sam Patterson, citing his BJJ black belt and submission game. He notes that Kiefer Crosbie is a limited brawler with poor grappling and that Patterson can use his reach and grappling to secure a submission. Cody believes Patterson will navigate the early danger and finish the fight on the ground.
Daniel dismisses Kiefer Crosbie as a YouTube boxer and thinks Sam Patterson can win by submission. He warns about Patterson's tall man's defense and knockout risk but believes he can get the fight to the ground and choke Crosbie out.
Paul also picks Patterson, noting that Crosbie is a short-notice replacement with a poor record. He believes Patterson's grappling and size will be too much, and that he will likely win by submission or TKO. Paul jokes about Patterson's long neck being chokeable but doesn't think Crosbie can capitalize.
The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Sam Patterson, calling it one of his locks of the card. He dismisses Kiefer Crosbie as 'garbage' and not UFC caliber, noting his poor physique and lack of skill. Patterson is described as a legitimate prospect who earned his way to the UFC, with a submission win over Johan Lesto. The Guru believes there is a clear skill difference and expects Patterson to win easily.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Yohan Lainesse | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Patterson | 0 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Yohan Lainesse | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Patterson | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yohan Lainesse | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Patterson | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yohan Lainesse | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lainesse due to his power and Patterson's suspect chin, referencing Patterson's recent knockout loss. He notes that both fighters can finish each other, but expects Lainesse to land on Patterson's chin. He also plans to bet the under on the round total if a 2.5 round line becomes available.
Big Brady picks Lainesse but hates the pick. He notes Lainesse has changed his style to be too conservative and gun-shy, but still has power and takedown defense. He thinks if the old Lainesse shows up, he knocks out Patterson early. He questions Patterson's chin and defense but acknowledges Patterson could win if Lainesse fights timidly.
Cody picks Patterson as an underdog, citing Lainesse's poor cardio and chin. He thinks if Patterson survives the first round, he can take over with his grappling and submission game. He notes Lainesse's power but believes Patterson's length and jiu-jitsu will be key.
Daniel Vreeland picks Yohan Lainesse but is not confident. He notes Lainesse has devastating power and looked good in the Gabe Green fight before being stopped. He worries about Lainesse's recent gun-shy performances but hopes a change in training camp reignites his aggression. He expects a knockout if the old Lainesse shows up.
This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Patterson vs Lainesse.
I'm going with Patterson here. He is the better cleaner striker and has a better ground game. I wouldn't be surprised to see him change levels and look for a submission finish. Lainesse is a solid power puncher but in terms of raw skills, Patterson is the better fighter. If the line climbs closer to +150, it becomes even more attractive. I think no matter who wins, it ends by finish, and I'll take Patterson by submission.
Paul leans Lainesse by KO in round 1, citing his power and Patterson's shaky chin. He acknowledges Lainesse's cardio issues but thinks he can get an early knockout. He doesn't love the bet but picks Lainesse.
The MMA Guru picks Yohan Lainesse, emphasizing his power and the home crowd advantage in Canada. He criticizes Sam Patterson's defensive flaws, particularly his chin-up stance and susceptibility to overhands. He notes Patterson's recent KO loss and the risk of moving up in weight to face a heavy hitter. He predicts a KO win for Lainesse.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 15 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 15 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yanal Ashmouz | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 15 of 20 | 75% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yanal Ashmouz | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 15 of 20 | 75% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
Angelo is on the underdog Ashmouz, having placed a quarter-unit bet at +230. He thinks Patterson is overrated because he is tall but does not use his length well in striking and is very hittable. He notes Ashmouz is well-rounded, comes forward, and has a solid chin. He believes Ashmouz can overwhelm Patterson.
Big Brady picks Patterson despite many red flags (poor striking defense, poor takedown defense). He is impressed by Patterson's submission game and believes he will find a submission win. He predicts a second-round submission, but notes he will look to fade Patterson in the future. He will not bet this fight at -260.
Cody picks Patterson, citing his size (6'3", 78" reach) and well-rounded skills. He notes Patterson has fought good competition on the regional scene and has a nasty guillotine. He thinks Ashmouz will struggle to get inside and take Patterson down, and even if he does, Patterson can get back up. He says minus 270 is a bit steep for a UFC debut but Patterson should win.
Connor picks Ashmouz, citing his violent grappling and punching power. He notes that Patterson is a tall, gangly fighter with gaps in his game, especially when pressured. Connor expects Ashmouz to close the distance, take Patterson down, and punish him on the ground, despite the significant size disadvantage.
Jacob is also on Ashmouz, criticizing Patterson's striking as resembling a high schooler with no power and a chin up in the air. He thinks Ashmouz's pressure and wrestling will be too much, and Patterson does not like to get hit. He expects Ashmouz to control the fight on the feet and on the ground.
Patterson uses his long frame to pick opponents apart from distance and has a dangerous guillotine choke when they shoot. Ashmouz is wild and reckless, crashing the pocket with overhands, which could lead to a desperation takedown. Patterson should eventually snatch up a submission. The fight doesn't go to decision is the preferred bet.
Paul picks Patterson, noting Ashmouz didn't impress in his PFL fight. He says Patterson's size and reach are huge advantages, and Ashmouz is giving up tons of size. He says there is some action on Ashmouz but it won't be him. He says Patterson is the pick but minus 270 is not a great price.
The MMA Guru picks Sam Patterson to win by late-round submission, likely a guillotine. He praises Patterson's calmness and ability to latch on finishes, despite early trouble. He notes Patterson has faced tough competition outside the UK, including a draw with Ahmed Amir and a loss to a Dagestani fighter, which gives him valuable experience. He expects Patterson to weather early adversity and find a choke.
Zane also picks Ashmouz, agreeing that Patterson's defensive flaws and tendency to get hit will be exploited. He notes that Patterson has some interesting tall-man skills but is too uncoordinated and hittable. Zane believes Ashmouz's takedown game and top pressure will be decisive.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo is on the underdog Ashmouz, having placed a quarter-unit bet at +230. He thinks Patterson is overrated because he is tall but does not use his length well in striking and is very hittable. He notes Ashmouz is well-rounded, comes forward, and has a solid chin. He believes Ashmouz can overwhelm Patterson.
Big Brady picks Patterson despite many red flags (poor striking defense, poor takedown defense). He is impressed by Patterson's submission game and believes he will find a submission win. He predicts a second-round submission, but notes he will look to fade Patterson in the future. He will not bet this fight at -260.
Cody picks Patterson, citing his size (6'3", 78" reach) and well-rounded skills. He notes Patterson has fought good competition on the regional scene and has a nasty guillotine. He thinks Ashmouz will struggle to get inside and take Patterson down, and even if he does, Patterson can get back up. He says minus 270 is a bit steep for a UFC debut but Patterson should win.
Connor picks Ashmouz, citing his violent grappling and punching power. He notes that Patterson is a tall, gangly fighter with gaps in his game, especially when pressured. Connor expects Ashmouz to close the distance, take Patterson down, and punish him on the ground, despite the significant size disadvantage.
Jacob is also on Ashmouz, criticizing Patterson's striking as resembling a high schooler with no power and a chin up in the air. He thinks Ashmouz's pressure and wrestling will be too much, and Patterson does not like to get hit. He expects Ashmouz to control the fight on the feet and on the ground.
Patterson uses his long frame to pick opponents apart from distance and has a dangerous guillotine choke when they shoot. Ashmouz is wild and reckless, crashing the pocket with overhands, which could lead to a desperation takedown. Patterson should eventually snatch up a submission. The fight doesn't go to decision is the preferred bet.
Paul picks Patterson, noting Ashmouz didn't impress in his PFL fight. He says Patterson's size and reach are huge advantages, and Ashmouz is giving up tons of size. He says there is some action on Ashmouz but it won't be him. He says Patterson is the pick but minus 270 is not a great price.
The MMA Guru picks Sam Patterson to win by late-round submission, likely a guillotine. He praises Patterson's calmness and ability to latch on finishes, despite early trouble. He notes Patterson has faced tough competition outside the UK, including a draw with Ahmed Amir and a loss to a Dagestani fighter, which gives him valuable experience. He expects Patterson to weather early adversity and find a choke.
Zane also picks Ashmouz, agreeing that Patterson's defensive flaws and tendency to get hit will be exploited. He notes that Patterson has some interesting tall-man skills but is too uncoordinated and hittable. Zane believes Ashmouz's takedown game and top pressure will be decisive.
Black belt for Quillan. Yanal held the fence a little. Some nice wrestling moves Quillan. Joe rogan, "he looks like a prospect" for so young is a nod to the talent of the newcomers.