vs
+240 -275
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 Next Fight
Age 31
Height 5' 9"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 30
Height 6' 3"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Yanal Ashmouz
2.88 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
4.78 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
3.24 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Sam Patterson
2.62 SLpM
37.0% Str. Acc.
3.06 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.82 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
33.0% TD Def.
1.6 Sub. Avg
Yanal Ashmouz
Moneyline
Caesars +240
KO/TKO
BetRivers +650
Submission
BetRivers +1200
Decision
FanDuel +600
Sam Patterson
Moneyline
BetWay -275
KO/TKO
FanDuel +320
Submission
BetRivers +230
Decision
FanDuel +300
Yanal Ashmouz - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Quillan Salkilld 0 79 of 124 63% 89 of 135 8 of 23 34% 0 0 7:35
Yanal Ashmouz 0 41 of 78 52% 65 of 106 0 of 6 0% 0 1 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Quillan Salkilld 0 19 of 27 70% 24 of 32 4 of 9 44% 0 0 2:45
Yanal Ashmouz 0 14 of 25 56% 26 of 41 0 of 4 0% 0 1 1:19
2 Quillan Salkilld 0 20 of 37 54% 23 of 41 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:30
Yanal Ashmouz 0 8 of 12 66% 15 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:35
3 Quillan Salkilld 0 40 of 60 66% 42 of 62 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:20
Yanal Ashmouz 0 19 of 41 46% 24 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Quillan Salkilld 79 of 124 63% 54 of 98 18 of 19 7 of 7 51 of 82 15 of 22 13 of 20
Yanal Ashmouz 41 of 78 52% 31 of 64 7 of 11 3 of 3 22 of 54 14 of 17 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Quillan Salkilld 19 of 27 70% 11 of 19 5 of 5 3 of 3 12 of 18 7 of 9 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 14 of 25 56% 11 of 21 3 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 18 4 of 4 2 of 3
2 Quillan Salkilld 20 of 37 54% 16 of 32 2 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 13 2 of 6 12 of 18
Yanal Ashmouz 8 of 12 66% 5 of 8 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 6 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Quillan Salkilld 40 of 60 66% 27 of 47 11 of 11 2 of 2 33 of 51 6 of 7 1 of 2
Yanal Ashmouz 19 of 41 46% 15 of 35 2 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 30 5 of 7 3 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Yanal Ashmouz vs. Quillan Salkilld
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Salkilld (-485), Ashmouz (+370)

Round 1
Lightweight action continues with Gasper Oliver as the referee. Salkilld and his mustache open the fight with a jab. Ashmouz wastes no time getting in close and clinching. Salkilld gets back to his feet after being tossed to the ground, but can't exit the clinch. Not a problem as Salkilld gets a takedown as Ashmouz gives up his back before standing back up. Ashmouz uses a fence grab to prevent another takedown. Salkilld now controlling the grappling exchange, landing knees and short elbows. Ashmouz eats a knee and finally backs off. Salkilld lands a hard low kick. A nice uppercut from Salkilld, who then gets a brief takedown. Ashmouz works his way back to his feet. Salkilld then carries Ashmouz and slams his foe down, showing that he's dominant in all facets of this match. Ashmouz is trying to get back up but is eating punches. Another fence grab from Ashmouz. Nice knee to the body from Salkilld as they're both against the fence. Beautiful throw by Salkilld, who then takes the back of Ashmouz. Salkilld loses position with 20 seconds left and then gets back to his feet. Both men throw wildly, and Ashmouz lands a nice left hook before the round expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Salkilld
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salkilld
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Salkilld

Round 2
Salkilld eats a heavy leg kick to start the second frame. Ashmouz then gives up yet another takedown as Salkilld enters half guard. Ashmouz is able to get back to his feet but is dragged back down. Salkilld sneaking punches under the arm to the face of Ashmouz. Salkilld can't keep his opponent down, but stuffs a takedown attempt from Ashmouz and then drags him down again. This round is all Salkilld, who takes the back of his opponent and lands some punishing punches. Ashmouz is able to get back up but is still in the clinch. The grappling of Salkilld is smothering, and he gets yet another takedown as he throws his opponent to the ground. They're back on their feet, and Ashmouz uses leg kicks to manage distance. Ashmouz grabs the neck of Salkilld during a takedown attempt, and the round expires with the two clinched against the fence.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Salkilld
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salkilld
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Salkilld

Round 3
Ashmouz lands a big left hook. Salkilld answers back with a kick to the body and uses his range to land a standing elbow. Big left hook and a straight right from Ashmouz hurts him! Salkilld composes himself and lands a knee. Ashmouz gets reckless and gives up the takedown. That might've been his best chance in the fight. Ashmouz gets back up, but Salkilld is kneeing his legs and looking to drag him back down. A big right hook lands for Ashmouz. Salkilld is being backed up to the cage and is eating shots as a result. Another left hook for Ashmouz lands before a leg kick. Nice uppercut from Ashmouz, who is looking to finish this fight. Salkilld answers back with a left hook to the body. Ashmouz walks into a right hand, but follows it up with two swinging hooks that find their mark. Salkilld can't get a takedown and then eats a left hand. Ashmouz throws a head kick but slips, costing him precious time. One minute left, and Ashmouz is throwing hands while Salkilld is desperate to grapple. They clinch with Salkilld being able to slow this fight down. Ashmouz rolls to the ground and lands some punches in desperation as the round expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ashmouz (29-28 Salkilld)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ashmouz (29-28 Salkilld)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ashmouz (29-28 Salkilld)

The Official Result
Quillan Salkilld def. Yanal Ashmouz via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28); R3, 5:00.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Angelo picks Quillan Salkilld, citing his striking advantage and ability to defend takedowns. He thinks Yanal will be forced to shoot early due to Quillan's striking. He warns Quillan not to pull guard. He has reservations about the 4-to-1 odds but still picks Quillan.

"Quillin's going to be the pick. I do have some reservations at the 4 to one odds, but I'm going with Salt Kid here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Big Brady picks Quillan Salkilld, liking his striking, volume, cardio, and size. He thinks Salkilld will win handily, likely by 30-27 decision, but notes the line is wide. He believes Ashmouz is a decent fighter but will be undersized and at a grappling disadvantage. He does not expect a finish.

"I like Sill killed. I think Sill is the real deal. I just don't think he's going to go out there and kind of run through him like the the line indicates."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Salkilld has a skill advantage that should be the difference maker. He needs to maintain distance to avoid Ashmouz's physicality and grinding. The pick is for Salkilld to outdamage and outpoint Ashmouz on the way to a decision victory.

"I think when it's all said and done, Skild's skill advantage will be the difference maker. And as long as he can maintain distance long enough, he should be able to outdamage and outpoint Ashmuz on route to a decision …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

The MMA Guru picks Quillan Salkilld to win, but criticizes the odds of -455 as too high, suggesting he should be around -200. He expects Salkilld to get a finish in the later rounds or win a decision, noting that Yanal Ashmouz has power and knocked out Sam Patterson. He acknowledges Salkilld is not invincible and has been hit before, but believes his technical skills will prevail.

Odds comment: -455 is insane, should be around -200. Finish prediction: second or third round TKO or decision.
"I am going to go with Quill and S killed getting this one done and I think he'll get a finish here in the later rounds."
WIN vs Trevor Peek
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yanal Ashmouz 0 55 of 107 51% 63 of 115 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
Trevor Peek 0 42 of 66 63% 85 of 124 9 of 18 50% 0 0 8:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yanal Ashmouz 0 16 of 33 48% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Trevor Peek 0 4 of 11 36% 12 of 23 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:29
2 Yanal Ashmouz 0 22 of 33 66% 23 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Trevor Peek 0 10 of 16 62% 36 of 48 6 of 9 66% 0 0 2:41
3 Yanal Ashmouz 0 17 of 41 41% 22 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Trevor Peek 0 28 of 39 71% 37 of 53 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yanal Ashmouz 55 of 107 51% 29 of 78 18 of 21 8 of 8 48 of 99 7 of 8 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 42 of 66 63% 26 of 48 9 of 11 7 of 7 19 of 41 18 of 20 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yanal Ashmouz 16 of 33 48% 6 of 21 4 of 6 6 of 6 15 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 4 of 11 36% 4 of 9 0 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 8 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Yanal Ashmouz 22 of 33 66% 11 of 21 9 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 28 5 of 5 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 10 of 16 62% 7 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 10 6 of 6 0 of 0
3 Yanal Ashmouz 17 of 41 41% 12 of 36 5 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 28 of 39 71% 15 of 26 7 of 7 6 of 6 12 of 23 11 of 11 5 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Angelo picks Yanal Ashmouz because he is the better fighter skill-for-skill, with technique everywhere, but he is hesitant because Trevor Peek is incredibly durable and has insane pressure. He notes that Yanal is still a dog and he has a bet on him, but he has buyer's remorse after watching Peek's toughness. He hopes Yanal doesn't break.

Angelo mentions he has a bet on Yanal Ashmouz as a dog.
"I am ultimately going to pick the better fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Big Brady picks Yanal Ashmouz as the underdog but says he wants nothing to do with betting on this fight. He describes it as a chaotic, back-and-forth war that likely goes to decision, with both guys having moments. Brady likes Ashmouz's ability to land big shots and mix in takedowns, but admits the fight could go either way.

"I'm actually going to take oshmo to win here just because I don't know you know Peak"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Cody echoes Paul's sentiment, praising Peek's chin, heart, and relentless pressure. He notes Ashmouz's lack of grappling and tendency to get taken down, while Peek's wrestling has improved. He expects Peek to walk through Ashmouz's strikes and land a knockout.

Trevor Peek by KO
"sign me up for Peak baby"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Daniel is a fan of Trevor Peek's fighting style and believes Ashmouz is KO-or-bust. He criticizes Ashmouz's low volume and reliance on one big shot, and thinks Peek can outwork him to a decision or catch him. He notes that Ashmouz struggled when he couldn't get the knockout against Chris Duncan. Daniel sees multiple paths to victory for Peek.

"I really think ashm is KO or bust in this spot and I think that Trevor Peak has multiple pass to Victory... I'm going Trevor Peak to outwork yanal ashm and get this dub."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Peek is durable, aggressive, and has never been finished. Ashmouz hits hard but may struggle to keep the fight at range. In a pocket exchange, Peek's power and chin could prevail. However, the host prefers to watch rather than bet heavily, as this fight reveals ceilings for both.

Trevor Peek by knockout
"I'm going to lean Peak here Peak by knockout but I'd rather sit back and watch this on the sidelines."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Paul is a fan of Peek's style and believes his durability, pressure, and power will overwhelm Ashmouz, who is more technical but lacks grappling and has shown vulnerability to pressure. He notes Ashmouz's poor takedown defense and tendency to fade. He picks Peek by KO.

Trevor Peek by KO
"give me TR Peak by KO and yeah this is actually just like greediness and toughness overcoming a slight speed and Technical Advantage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

The MMA Guru picks Yanal Ashmouz over Trevor Peek. He praises Ashmouz's power and notes he fought Chris Duncan with a broken arm and still went to a decision. He believes Peek is too hittable and that Ashmouz is primed to land big KO blows. He predicts a TKO win for Ashmouz, though he admits he will be rooting for Peek.

TKO prediction
"I'm going to go with Yan Al ASAS getting this one done probably by TKO"
LOSS vs Chris Duncan
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Duncan 0 85 of 206 41% 87 of 209 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:48
Yanal Ashmouz 0 35 of 98 35% 36 of 100 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Duncan 0 19 of 60 31% 19 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Yanal Ashmouz 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Duncan 0 26 of 60 43% 26 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Yanal Ashmouz 0 14 of 36 38% 14 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chris Duncan 0 40 of 86 46% 42 of 89 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:40
Yanal Ashmouz 0 12 of 34 35% 13 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Duncan 85 of 206 41% 54 of 161 23 of 30 8 of 15 82 of 200 3 of 6 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 35 of 98 35% 15 of 68 8 of 14 12 of 16 34 of 96 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Duncan 19 of 60 31% 11 of 46 2 of 5 6 of 9 19 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 9 of 28 32% 4 of 20 2 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Chris Duncan 26 of 60 43% 12 of 41 12 of 14 2 of 5 26 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 14 of 36 38% 6 of 26 3 of 5 5 of 5 14 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Chris Duncan 40 of 86 46% 31 of 74 9 of 11 0 of 1 37 of 80 3 of 6 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 12 of 34 35% 5 of 22 3 of 4 4 of 8 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Angelo likes Chris Duncan's forward pressure and grit, noting that Duncan has been dropped but never out of a fight. He questions Yanal Ashmouz's takedown defense and thinks Duncan's wrestling will be a factor. He has placed a half-unit bet on Duncan at near even money.

half unit bet placed
"I like Chris in this matchup I think that his forward pressure his grit are gonna get it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Big Brady picks Shauna Bannon as a dog, but admits he hates the pick and won't bet it. He thinks Bannon has a path to victory through wrestling, as Brasil has poor takedown defense (45%). He notes Brasil is the more skilled striker but looked awful in her debut. He is not high on either fighter.

"I hate this pick I hate this fight but I'm gonna take another dog here and Sean abandon to get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Cody picks Ashmouz, citing his power and aggression. He notes Duncan was knocked out by Borshchev and has suspect durability. He thinks Ashmouz's wrestling and power are advantages, and likes the plus money.

Ashmouz by KO, Ashmouz round 1 at +550
"him plus 120 don't mind it him like there's some like some of the props seem like extra spicy too"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Daniel leans toward Chris Duncan, citing his improved grappling and cage work shown in his last fight, as well as his physicality. He notes Duncan is training at ATT and getting high-level looks. However, he is not sold on Duncan's durability and thinks he is hittable. He is not interested in betting Duncan at -140 due to the unknowns about Ashmouz. He says he needs to see more from both fighters.

Daniel says he is not interested at the betting window. He mentions the line: Duncan -140, Ashmouz +125.
"I'm going to lean Duncan but I I'm not interested at the betting window"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

James picks Chris Duncan to win. He thinks Duncan is a better striker overall, with size and reach advantages. He believes Ashmouz will struggle to wrestle Duncan, making it a striking fight where Duncan has the edge. James notes that Ashmouz was a +300 underdog in his last fight and is now -110, which he sees as a market overcorrection. He acknowledges that both fighters have knockout power and the fight is volatile, but he favors Duncan.

"for that fight I do favor Duncan for sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

The host picks Yanal Ashmouz, citing his durability, explosiveness, and power to find an early finish. He expects both to grapple initially but thinks it becomes a fistfight where Ashmouz's power prevails. He suggests the fight doesn't go to decision and that unders are safe.

fight doesn't go to decision, unders are safe
"I feel like ash moose has a little bit better durability a little bit more explosiveness and a little bit more power to eventually find that chin of Duncan and put his lights cleaned out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Paul picks Ashmouz, recalling his KO of Sam Patterson. He thinks Duncan is stiff and hittable, and Ashmouz's power is a real threat. He notes Duncan's wrestling looked good against Morales but still favors the dog.

Ashmouz by knockout
"I'm willing to take an underdog flyer here so samyam for you know Ash moons"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

The MMA Guru picks Yanal Ashmouz, calling Chris Duncan's favorite status 'straight up incorrect odds'. He criticizes Duncan's UFC debut as one of the worst, showing no skill on the feet and a slow grappling game against an older Omar Morales. He notes Duncan has been finished before on the Contender Series. The Guru highlights Ashmouz's explosiveness and KO power, predicting a first-round TKO.

TKO in first round
"I'm definitely gonna have to side with you nalashmus he's coming off a wicked KO win over Sam Patterson"
WIN vs Sam Patterson
KO (punches) R1 1:15 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yanal Ashmouz 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 0 15 of 20 75% 15 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yanal Ashmouz 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 0 15 of 20 75% 15 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yanal Ashmouz 2 of 7 28% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 15 of 20 75% 14 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yanal Ashmouz 2 of 7 28% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 15 of 20 75% 14 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 16
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Angelo is on the underdog Ashmouz, having placed a quarter-unit bet at +230. He thinks Patterson is overrated because he is tall but does not use his length well in striking and is very hittable. He notes Ashmouz is well-rounded, comes forward, and has a solid chin. He believes Ashmouz can overwhelm Patterson.

bet at +230
"I like you know I'll ask Moms to win this fight I got a quarter of a unit on him at plus 230."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Big Brady picks Patterson despite many red flags (poor striking defense, poor takedown defense). He is impressed by Patterson's submission game and believes he will find a submission win. He predicts a second-round submission, but notes he will look to fade Patterson in the future. He will not bet this fight at -260.

will not bet this fight
"I think he's Subs ashmost here I'm going to say second round submission for Patterson"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Cody picks Patterson, citing his size (6'3", 78" reach) and well-rounded skills. He notes Patterson has fought good competition on the regional scene and has a nasty guillotine. He thinks Ashmouz will struggle to get inside and take Patterson down, and even if he does, Patterson can get back up. He says minus 270 is a bit steep for a UFC debut but Patterson should win.

"I actually do like Sam Patterson the tricky situation here though is that he's a minus 270 favorite in his UFC debut that's not something I love"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Connor picks Ashmouz, citing his violent grappling and punching power. He notes that Patterson is a tall, gangly fighter with gaps in his game, especially when pressured. Connor expects Ashmouz to close the distance, take Patterson down, and punish him on the ground, despite the significant size disadvantage.

"I am definitely going to pick Ashmouz."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Jacob is also on Ashmouz, criticizing Patterson's striking as resembling a high schooler with no power and a chin up in the air. He thinks Ashmouz's pressure and wrestling will be too much, and Patterson does not like to get hit. He expects Ashmouz to control the fight on the feet and on the ground.

"Sam Patterson sucks."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Patterson uses his long frame to pick opponents apart from distance and has a dangerous guillotine choke when they shoot. Ashmouz is wild and reckless, crashing the pocket with overhands, which could lead to a desperation takedown. Patterson should eventually snatch up a submission. The fight doesn't go to decision is the preferred bet.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I think eventually he's gonna hurt you know and that will force a bad shot of you now which will allow Patterson to lock up that neck and take home and submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Paul picks Patterson, noting Ashmouz didn't impress in his PFL fight. He says Patterson's size and reach are huge advantages, and Ashmouz is giving up tons of size. He says there is some action on Ashmouz but it won't be him. He says Patterson is the pick but minus 270 is not a great price.

"Patterson's the pick but mine is two seven minus 270 new thank you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

The MMA Guru picks Sam Patterson to win by late-round submission, likely a guillotine. He praises Patterson's calmness and ability to latch on finishes, despite early trouble. He notes Patterson has faced tough competition outside the UK, including a draw with Ahmed Amir and a loss to a Dagestani fighter, which gives him valuable experience. He expects Patterson to weather early adversity and find a choke.

Patterson wins by submission (guillotine)
"I'm gonna go Sam Patterson wins this one and I think you'll win it by a late round submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Zane also picks Ashmouz, agreeing that Patterson's defensive flaws and tendency to get hit will be exploited. He notes that Patterson has some interesting tall-man skills but is too uncoordinated and hittable. Zane believes Ashmouz's takedown game and top pressure will be decisive.

"I'll pick Ashmouz as well."
Sam Patterson - Fight History
LOSS vs Michael Page
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Page 0 27 of 55 49% 33 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Sam Patterson 0 12 of 64 18% 25 of 78 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Page 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 0 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Page 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 0 2 of 26 7% 5 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
3 Michael Page 0 12 of 19 63% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Sam Patterson 0 6 of 27 22% 16 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Page 27 of 55 49% 17 of 38 4 of 8 6 of 9 27 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 12 of 64 18% 4 of 50 4 of 6 4 of 8 10 of 60 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Page 5 of 12 41% 3 of 7 1 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Page 10 of 24 41% 6 of 16 3 of 4 1 of 4 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 2 of 26 7% 1 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Page 12 of 19 63% 8 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 4 12 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 6 of 27 22% 1 of 18 3 of 5 2 of 4 4 of 23 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michael Page

Angelo picks Michael Page with extreme confidence, calling it the easiest money. He notes MVP is faster, cleaner, more powerful, and more technical everywhere. He believes Sam Patterson is chinny and that MVP should dominate. He references MVP's public complaints about the matchup.

calls -195 easiest money ever
"This has to be this has to be MVP. Like this ha The pick is MVP. If he loses to Sam Patterson, then cut his gloves off. Leave him in the octagon."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Michael Page

Big Brady confidently picks Michael Page, praising his unique striking and ability to avoid being hit. He notes that Page out-lands opponents at distance and that Sam Patterson has sub-50% striking defense and a suspect chin. He thinks Page will style on Patterson and potentially knock him out, predicting a second-round KO. However, he acknowledges that if Patterson gets the fight to the ground, he could win.

Michael Page by second-round KO
"Give me Michael Page here. Give me Michael Page to get his best performance yet and knock out Sam Patterson in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Page

Cody agrees with Paul, citing Page's experience against bigger opponents and Patterson's durability issues. He sees Page winning by KO or decision.

"I'm with you. I think MVP is the side here as well."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

Connor picks Page, agreeing with Zane that Page is a clear favorite. He emphasizes that Page's style of moving around, mocking opponents, and landing clean shots is a nightmare for Patterson, who wants to step in and crack opponents. Connor notes that Page has shown he can remain calm against good fighters in the UFC, and Patterson's only path is if Page makes a rare mistake. He calls the booking a waste of both fighters' time.

Page opened at -155, dropped to -250, currently -180; Patterson opened at +135, jumped to +195, currently +155.
"If Sam Patterson is feasting out guys getting spooked by his aggression and jumping on opportunities, Michael Page is the king of never, ever, ever for a second, taking his eye off the ball."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Daniel initially thought MVP would style on Patterson, but after analysis, he sees Patterson as a live dog if he can get the fight to the mat. He notes MVP's age, speed decline, and past takedown issues. He thinks Patterson might be able to capitalize on MVP's vulnerabilities.

"I think if Patterson can avoid prolonged exchanges on the feet and somehow get this to the mat, he might be a live dog here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Daniel Vreeland picks Sam Patterson as an underdog. He notes that MVP is older and dropping back down to welterweight, and Patterson has a strong submission game. If Patterson can get the fight to the ground, he can submit MVP.

"I'm going to pick the underdog Sam Patterson to come out here and choke out Michael Venom Paige in London."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Sam Patterson

This is a true 50/50 fight: Page has striking advantage, Patterson has grappling advantage. Patterson is the value bet at underdog odds. If Patterson grapples, he can submit or ground-and-pound Page. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.

Under 2.5 rounds at 1.80 (-125) is a great value bet; fight likely ends inside distance.
"Patterson is still the better bet here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

James picks Sam Patterson as a big underdog, believing Patterson's grappling is a massive threat. He notes that Page is a great striker but can be taken down, and Patterson has submission skills. He also cites Patterson's hunger and age advantage, and thinks the odds are off.

Sam Patterson inside the distance, submission
"I'm going to outright pick Sam Patterson to win this fight. I'm going to pick Sam Patterson to win this fight inside the distance. And I'm going to pick him to win it via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michael Page

The host picks Michael Page by knockout. He believes Page's speed and counter-striking will be too much for Patterson, who may struggle to land cleanly. He expects Patterson to get frustrated and walk into a big shot. However, he notes the lack of reach advantage for Page could be a factor.

"Give me MVP by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Page

Paul thinks Page's speed and striking will be too much for Patterson, who stands upright and is hittable. He expects a KO or clear decision for Page.

"I do got uh I do got Venom Paige to pull off the victory here, likely by KO in my opinion."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

The MMA Guru picks Michael Venom Page to win by TKO, his first UFC finish. He notes Patterson is upright and has been caught with straight punches, while MVP is a crafty striker with underrated submission defense. He acknowledges Patterson's jiu-jitsu threat but believes MVP's range and timing will lead to a knockdown and finish.

first UFC finish by TKO
"I'll go MVP by finish this time. His first UFC finish by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

Zane picks Page confidently, stating that Page is almost certain to beat Patterson. He notes that Page is the king of never getting shook up and always fights to his plan, while Patterson is an opportunistic finisher who relies on aggression and fear. Zane believes Patterson's style of pushing into the pocket and having terrible defense is perfect for Page to pick apart. He acknowledges a small chance Patterson could catch Page if Page times something wrong, but sees Page as a clear favorite.

Page opened at -155, dropped to -250, currently -180; Patterson opened at +135, jumped to +195, currently +155.
"I just think he's almost certainly going to beat Sam Patterson. If he doesn't, it's going to be purely based on him timing something wrong and Patterson catching him because Patterson is a great opportunist."
WIN vs Trey Waters
KO R1 3:01 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Patterson 0 25 of 48 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trey Waters 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Patterson 0 25 of 48 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trey Waters 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Patterson 25 of 48 52% 21 of 43 0 of 1 4 of 4 25 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Waters 18 of 38 47% 9 of 23 3 of 6 6 of 9 18 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Patterson 25 of 48 52% 21 of 43 0 of 1 4 of 4 25 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Waters 18 of 38 47% 9 of 23 3 of 6 6 of 9 18 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Angelo picks Trey Waters, citing his toughness, speed, power, and similar reach advantage. He criticizes Sam Patterson's poor striking defense and chin-up stance. He notes that Patterson's length advantage is neutralized by Waters' even longer reach. The only concern is Waters' year-long layoff and potential weight cut issues. He plans to bet on Waters if he makes weight and looks good at weigh-ins.

will bet if makes weight well
"I'm going to pick Trey Waters here. I think Trey is tougher. I think he's faster. I think he hits harder."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Big Brady leans toward Sam Patterson, citing his grappling advantage and submission threat. He notes Patterson's striking defense is poor but believes his move to welterweight helps his chin. He predicts a second-round submission, as Waters was submitted in his only loss.

Patterson by submission, round 2
"I do lean Patterson here. I'm going to take Patterson to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

The host notes Patterson is in a groove with a three-fight winning streak and is comfortable at 170 lbs. He expects Patterson to counter-strike Waters, shut down his jab, take him to the ground, and use his BJJ black belt to force a submission.

submission
"I think we'll see that continue into this fight as he counter strikes Waters, shuts down the jab of Waters, and eventually takes him to the ground and looks to utilize his BJJ black belt to force the submission."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

The Guru picks Sam Patterson, highlighting his reach advantage and well-rounded game since moving to welterweight. He notes Patterson's finishing potential in multiple areas, including submissions and TKO, and contrasts that with Trey Waters' lack of a plan B. He predicts a submission win, possibly a rear-naked choke, after some striking exchanges.

submission
"I think Sam Patterson is a very good welterweight prospect in the UFC and I expect him to beat Trey Waters and I'm actually going to say he wins it by submission."
WIN vs Danny Barlow
KO R1 3:10 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Danny Barlow 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 1 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Danny Barlow 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 1 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Danny Barlow 15 of 30 50% 10 of 23 2 of 3 3 of 4 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 18 of 34 52% 14 of 28 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 29 0 of 0 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Danny Barlow 15 of 30 50% 10 of 23 2 of 3 3 of 4 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 18 of 34 52% 14 of 28 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 29 0 of 0 3 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Angelo picks Danny Barlow, noting his longer reach and better use of range compared to Sam Patterson, who relies too much on his length. He believes Barlow will control the striking and potentially find a finish, though he has concerns about Barlow's ground game if the fight goes there. He sees Patterson as unlikely to win.

Potential prop bet on Barlow finish
"I think Danny's going to control the Striking because he actually uses his reach well I think he could potentially find a finish my only concern on the Danny side would be a situation where he ends up on the …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Big Brady picks Danny Barlow, citing his powerful left hand and Sam Patterson's poor striking defense. He notes Patterson's chin is exposed and he's been knocked out before. He predicts a first-round knockout, but warns that if the fight goes to the ground, Patterson could be dangerous.

Barlow by KO round 1
"I'm going to take Danny Barlo to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Connor picks Barlow all day, emphasizing that Patterson's defense is still awful and he is unconscionably hittable. He notes that Barlow has size parity and is a good athlete who fights at range, which will force Patterson to reach and expose his chin. Connor recalls his previous criticism of Patterson and sees this as a clear win for Barlow.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"Yep, i'm picking barlow all day."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

The host expects a fun striking battle where Patterson may try to take the fight to the ground, but Barlow's wrestling defense will keep it upright. He believes Barlow's power striking, specifically his left straight, will catch Patterson and knock him out clean.

knockout
"this should be a fun striking battle where Patterson may look to try to get this fight to the ground but the wrestling back R of Barlo will allow him to keep this fight upright and then utilize his power …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Sam Patterson

The Guru picks Sam Patterson as an underdog over Danny Barlow. He believes Patterson's grappling and reach advantage will be key, and that he can avoid Barlow's power. He notes Patterson's submission wins at 170 and his experience at 155. He predicts a submission win, likely a rear-naked choke in the first or second round.

PrizePicks: Danny Barlow under significant strikes (if he loses)
"I'm going to side with Sam Patterson over Danny Bor... I'm going to take Sam Patterson by submission... re naked choke first or second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Zane picks Barlow confidently, noting that Barlow is a long-range outboxer who just fought a similar tall fighter and was comfortable. He points out that Patterson's defense is awful and his chin is exposed, and Barlow has size parity, negating Patterson's usual advantages. Zane sees this as a nightmare matchup for Patterson.

Barlow opened -322, now -294; Patterson opened +230, now +270.
"So I gotta pick barlow here."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 2:50 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Patterson 0 9 of 26 34% 13 of 31 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:56
Kiefer Crosbie 0 9 of 16 56% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Patterson 0 9 of 26 34% 13 of 31 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:56
Kiefer Crosbie 0 9 of 16 56% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Patterson 9 of 26 34% 8 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kiefer Crosbie 9 of 16 56% 4 of 8 0 of 0 5 of 8 9 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Patterson 9 of 26 34% 8 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kiefer Crosbie 9 of 16 56% 4 of 8 0 of 0 5 of 8 9 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Angelo picks Sam Patterson as the better overall fighter, but warns not to bet on him due to his history of getting knocked out. He notes that Patterson should wrestle early to avoid Crosbie's power. Angelo recalls Patterson's previous loss as a big favorite and advises caution.

advises not to bet on Patterson
"Sam Patterson is going to be the pick nobody should be betting on this guy nobody"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Cody picks Sam Patterson, citing his BJJ black belt and submission game. He notes that Kiefer Crosbie is a limited brawler with poor grappling and that Patterson can use his reach and grappling to secure a submission. Cody believes Patterson will navigate the early danger and finish the fight on the ground.

Sam Patterson by submission
"Patterson by submission is how I see this one going down."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Daniel dismisses Kiefer Crosbie as a YouTube boxer and thinks Sam Patterson can win by submission. He warns about Patterson's tall man's defense and knockout risk but believes he can get the fight to the ground and choke Crosbie out.

wins by submission
"I think where he's got his best Avenue the victory is to find a way to get this guy to the map and choke him out shortly after"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Paul also picks Patterson, noting that Crosbie is a short-notice replacement with a poor record. He believes Patterson's grappling and size will be too much, and that he will likely win by submission or TKO. Paul jokes about Patterson's long neck being chokeable but doesn't think Crosbie can capitalize.

"Sam Patterson probably finds a way to get to this to the canvas he's got a huge frame... seems like a cupcake matchup for Sam Patterson."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Sam Patterson, calling it one of his locks of the card. He dismisses Kiefer Crosbie as 'garbage' and not UFC caliber, noting his poor physique and lack of skill. Patterson is described as a legitimate prospect who earned his way to the UFC, with a submission win over Johan Lesto. The Guru believes there is a clear skill difference and expects Patterson to win easily.

"I'm G to go with Sam Patterson here there's just a skill difference between the two of them and I think he's way better than Kea Crosby that's one of my locks of the card as well"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:03 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Patterson 0 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Yohan Lainesse 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Patterson 0 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Yohan Lainesse 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Patterson 1 of 9 11% 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yohan Lainesse 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Patterson 1 of 9 11% 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yohan Lainesse 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Yohan Lainesse

Angelo picks Lainesse due to his power and Patterson's suspect chin, referencing Patterson's recent knockout loss. He notes that both fighters can finish each other, but expects Lainesse to land on Patterson's chin. He also plans to bet the under on the round total if a 2.5 round line becomes available.

Under 2.5 rounds (if line drops)
"the easy answer is Johan has power Sam Patterson gets knocked out so I'm going to go with the easy answer here Johan liones is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Yohan Lainesse

Big Brady picks Lainesse but hates the pick. He notes Lainesse has changed his style to be too conservative and gun-shy, but still has power and takedown defense. He thinks if the old Lainesse shows up, he knocks out Patterson early. He questions Patterson's chin and defense but acknowledges Patterson could win if Lainesse fights timidly.

first round knockout
"I'll take liones to knock out Sam Patterson in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Cody picks Patterson as an underdog, citing Lainesse's poor cardio and chin. He thinks if Patterson survives the first round, he can take over with his grappling and submission game. He notes Lainesse's power but believes Patterson's length and jiu-jitsu will be key.

"I am going to take the slight underdog shot on Sam Patterson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Yohan Lainesse

Daniel Vreeland picks Yohan Lainesse but is not confident. He notes Lainesse has devastating power and looked good in the Gabe Green fight before being stopped. He worries about Lainesse's recent gun-shy performances but hopes a change in training camp reignites his aggression. He expects a knockout if the old Lainesse shows up.

"give me Johan here but you know I'm not laying it"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Patterson vs Lainesse.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

I'm going with Patterson here. He is the better cleaner striker and has a better ground game. I wouldn't be surprised to see him change levels and look for a submission finish. Lainesse is a solid power puncher but in terms of raw skills, Patterson is the better fighter. If the line climbs closer to +150, it becomes even more attractive. I think no matter who wins, it ends by finish, and I'll take Patterson by submission.

submission prop, fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to go with Patterson I think Patterson wins this fight likely by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Yohan Lainesse

Paul leans Lainesse by KO in round 1, citing his power and Patterson's shaky chin. He acknowledges Lainesse's cardio issues but thinks he can get an early knockout. He doesn't love the bet but picks Lainesse.

Lainesse KO round 1
"I'll say Johan KO round one but don't love it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Yohan Lainesse

The MMA Guru picks Yohan Lainesse, emphasizing his power and the home crowd advantage in Canada. He criticizes Sam Patterson's defensive flaws, particularly his chin-up stance and susceptibility to overhands. He notes Patterson's recent KO loss and the risk of moving up in weight to face a heavy hitter. He predicts a KO win for Lainesse.

KO
"I'm going to go Johan leness I think he's going to find the KO he's fighting in front of his home crowd in Canada"
LOSS vs Yanal Ashmouz
KO (punches) R1 1:15 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yanal Ashmouz 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 0 15 of 20 75% 15 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yanal Ashmouz 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 0 15 of 20 75% 15 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yanal Ashmouz 2 of 7 28% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 15 of 20 75% 14 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yanal Ashmouz 2 of 7 28% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 15 of 20 75% 14 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 16
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Angelo is on the underdog Ashmouz, having placed a quarter-unit bet at +230. He thinks Patterson is overrated because he is tall but does not use his length well in striking and is very hittable. He notes Ashmouz is well-rounded, comes forward, and has a solid chin. He believes Ashmouz can overwhelm Patterson.

bet at +230
"I like you know I'll ask Moms to win this fight I got a quarter of a unit on him at plus 230."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Big Brady picks Patterson despite many red flags (poor striking defense, poor takedown defense). He is impressed by Patterson's submission game and believes he will find a submission win. He predicts a second-round submission, but notes he will look to fade Patterson in the future. He will not bet this fight at -260.

will not bet this fight
"I think he's Subs ashmost here I'm going to say second round submission for Patterson"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Cody picks Patterson, citing his size (6'3", 78" reach) and well-rounded skills. He notes Patterson has fought good competition on the regional scene and has a nasty guillotine. He thinks Ashmouz will struggle to get inside and take Patterson down, and even if he does, Patterson can get back up. He says minus 270 is a bit steep for a UFC debut but Patterson should win.

"I actually do like Sam Patterson the tricky situation here though is that he's a minus 270 favorite in his UFC debut that's not something I love"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Connor picks Ashmouz, citing his violent grappling and punching power. He notes that Patterson is a tall, gangly fighter with gaps in his game, especially when pressured. Connor expects Ashmouz to close the distance, take Patterson down, and punish him on the ground, despite the significant size disadvantage.

"I am definitely going to pick Ashmouz."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Jacob is also on Ashmouz, criticizing Patterson's striking as resembling a high schooler with no power and a chin up in the air. He thinks Ashmouz's pressure and wrestling will be too much, and Patterson does not like to get hit. He expects Ashmouz to control the fight on the feet and on the ground.

"Sam Patterson sucks."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Patterson uses his long frame to pick opponents apart from distance and has a dangerous guillotine choke when they shoot. Ashmouz is wild and reckless, crashing the pocket with overhands, which could lead to a desperation takedown. Patterson should eventually snatch up a submission. The fight doesn't go to decision is the preferred bet.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I think eventually he's gonna hurt you know and that will force a bad shot of you now which will allow Patterson to lock up that neck and take home and submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Paul picks Patterson, noting Ashmouz didn't impress in his PFL fight. He says Patterson's size and reach are huge advantages, and Ashmouz is giving up tons of size. He says there is some action on Ashmouz but it won't be him. He says Patterson is the pick but minus 270 is not a great price.

"Patterson's the pick but mine is two seven minus 270 new thank you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

The MMA Guru picks Sam Patterson to win by late-round submission, likely a guillotine. He praises Patterson's calmness and ability to latch on finishes, despite early trouble. He notes Patterson has faced tough competition outside the UK, including a draw with Ahmed Amir and a loss to a Dagestani fighter, which gives him valuable experience. He expects Patterson to weather early adversity and find a choke.

Patterson wins by submission (guillotine)
"I'm gonna go Sam Patterson wins this one and I think you'll win it by a late round submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Zane also picks Ashmouz, agreeing that Patterson's defensive flaws and tendency to get hit will be exploited. He notes that Patterson has some interesting tall-man skills but is too uncoordinated and hittable. Zane believes Ashmouz's takedown game and top pressure will be decisive.

"I'll pick Ashmouz as well."
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Angelo is on the underdog Ashmouz, having placed a quarter-unit bet at +230. He thinks Patterson is overrated because he is tall but does not use his length well in striking and is very hittable. He notes Ashmouz is well-rounded, comes forward, and has a solid chin. He believes Ashmouz can overwhelm Patterson.

bet at +230
"I like you know I'll ask Moms to win this fight I got a quarter of a unit on him at plus 230."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Big Brady picks Patterson despite many red flags (poor striking defense, poor takedown defense). He is impressed by Patterson's submission game and believes he will find a submission win. He predicts a second-round submission, but notes he will look to fade Patterson in the future. He will not bet this fight at -260.

will not bet this fight
"I think he's Subs ashmost here I'm going to say second round submission for Patterson"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Cody picks Patterson, citing his size (6'3", 78" reach) and well-rounded skills. He notes Patterson has fought good competition on the regional scene and has a nasty guillotine. He thinks Ashmouz will struggle to get inside and take Patterson down, and even if he does, Patterson can get back up. He says minus 270 is a bit steep for a UFC debut but Patterson should win.

"I actually do like Sam Patterson the tricky situation here though is that he's a minus 270 favorite in his UFC debut that's not something I love"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Connor picks Ashmouz, citing his violent grappling and punching power. He notes that Patterson is a tall, gangly fighter with gaps in his game, especially when pressured. Connor expects Ashmouz to close the distance, take Patterson down, and punish him on the ground, despite the significant size disadvantage.

"I am definitely going to pick Ashmouz."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Jacob is also on Ashmouz, criticizing Patterson's striking as resembling a high schooler with no power and a chin up in the air. He thinks Ashmouz's pressure and wrestling will be too much, and Patterson does not like to get hit. He expects Ashmouz to control the fight on the feet and on the ground.

"Sam Patterson sucks."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Patterson uses his long frame to pick opponents apart from distance and has a dangerous guillotine choke when they shoot. Ashmouz is wild and reckless, crashing the pocket with overhands, which could lead to a desperation takedown. Patterson should eventually snatch up a submission. The fight doesn't go to decision is the preferred bet.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I think eventually he's gonna hurt you know and that will force a bad shot of you now which will allow Patterson to lock up that neck and take home and submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Paul picks Patterson, noting Ashmouz didn't impress in his PFL fight. He says Patterson's size and reach are huge advantages, and Ashmouz is giving up tons of size. He says there is some action on Ashmouz but it won't be him. He says Patterson is the pick but minus 270 is not a great price.

"Patterson's the pick but mine is two seven minus 270 new thank you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

The MMA Guru picks Sam Patterson to win by late-round submission, likely a guillotine. He praises Patterson's calmness and ability to latch on finishes, despite early trouble. He notes Patterson has faced tough competition outside the UK, including a draw with Ahmed Amir and a loss to a Dagestani fighter, which gives him valuable experience. He expects Patterson to weather early adversity and find a choke.

Patterson wins by submission (guillotine)
"I'm gonna go Sam Patterson wins this one and I think you'll win it by a late round submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Zane also picks Ashmouz, agreeing that Patterson's defensive flaws and tendency to get hit will be exploited. He notes that Patterson has some interesting tall-man skills but is too uncoordinated and hittable. Zane believes Ashmouz's takedown game and top pressure will be decisive.

"I'll pick Ashmouz as well."