Fight card

UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis

January 20, 2024 Scotiabank Arena Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Dricus du Plessis

Dricus du Plessis W

23-3
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00
Fight 1 VS Middleweight Completed

Dricus du Plessis

Moneyline
FanDuel -108
KO/TKO
BetWay +250
Submission
BetRivers +525
Decision
BetRivers +800

Sean Strickland

Moneyline
BetRivers -103
KO/TKO
FanDuel +250
Submission
FanDuel +1400
Decision
BetRivers +390
Fighter Stats

Dricus du Plessis

Age32
Height6' 1"
Reach76.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Sean Strickland

Age35
Height6' 1"
Reach76.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Dricus du Plessis

5.18SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
4.33SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
2.22TD Avg
51.0%TD Acc.
34.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Sean Strickland

6.04SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
4.57SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
0.71TD Avg
64.0%TD Acc.
76.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans du Plessis, believing he has more ways to win with power, wrestling, and improved cardio after nose surgery. He admits to underestimating both fighters in the past. He is unsure about betting and will monitor the line movement. He notes Strickland's incredible cardio and takedown defense but thinks du Plessis's explosiveness and variety give him the edge.

Will monitor line movement; may bet on du Plessis
"I am going to lean drus here I think if we're looking at the two of these Fighters we're looking at their skill sets and their body of work"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks du Plessis, expecting a chaotic fight. He notes du Plessis has power and thrives in chaos, while Strickland lacks power and often goes to decision. He believes du Plessis will land a big shot early and finish Strickland in the first or second round, similar to his win over Whittaker. He worries about du Plessis's cardio in later rounds but thinks it won't matter.

first or second round knockout
"I'm going drus by first or second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Cody sees this as a 50-50 fight but leans Strickland due to his proven cardio, takedown defense, and ability to fight down the stretch. He notes du Plessis has a history of gassing in later rounds and getting finished, while Strickland conserves energy well and has a high output. Cody also mentions a live betting opportunity on Strickland if du Plessis starts strong.

Strickland late (round 4 or 5) at +1500 and +2100 respectively
"I think Sean Strickland wins... it's a good fight that Sean Strickland wins down the stretch."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Vreeland picks du Plessis, noting his submission grappling background and the possibility of winning a decision like Jared Cannonier did against Strickland. He mentions that Strickland landed more punches but Cannonier landed the memorable ones. Vreeland also notes that Strickland's grappling is not great, and du Plessis could use his grappling if needed. He sees it as a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by finish.

"I'm picking DDP too and I will say you know for a lot of people they're like oh I still worried about the cardio because he gased out in like one fight early in his UFC span and …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to win the middleweight title. He believes Strickland's jab-and-volume game plan won't be enough against du Plessis's awkward but violent style and power. He notes du Plessis holds the record for most significant strikes in middleweight history and has proven he can go the distance. Vreeland also mentions he bet two units on du Plessis at +125, showing strong conviction.

"I took him in the spot at plus 125 I put two units on it um I think it should be a pick them"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Fox picks du Plessis, calling it a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by knockout. He notes that du Plessis decimated Robert Whittaker and has good grappling. Fox also mentions that Strickland's emotional state (being mad) is a reason not to pick him. He sees du Plessis winning by knockout or possibly decision.

"I'm gonna take a guy who we is he good Gumby is DDP good yet I know he beat Robert Whitaker but is he good Crush crushed Robert Whitaker I'm taking he decimated Robert Whitaker this is I …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

Lucrative James picks Dricus du Plessis to retain his title, citing du Plessis's diverse skill set (spinning kicks, elbows, takedowns, submissions) compared to Strickland's limited pocket boxing. He notes du Plessis's durability and power advantage, the championship mentality, and improved cardio from the first fight. He predicts a clearer win than the split decision last time, possibly by KO or decision.

"my prediction is going to be dricker dupy retains his title and he's going to win the fight via decision or or by KO"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

I'm taking Strickland to win. He has the cardio and output advantage, and he can make du Plessis uncomfortable. If du Plessis doesn't finish him in the first two rounds, his cardio might fade and Strickland can take over. Strickland's awkward pressure style is hard to deal with. I think Strickland weathers the storm, walks him down, batters him, and possibly finishes in the fourth or fifth round. The -145 line is not bad for a fighter with those advantages.

round 4-5 TKO, decision victory
"give me Sean Strickland R for round five TKO and still"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Strickland but emphasizing the prop side. He worries about du Plessis's early power and wrestling but believes Strickland's pace and volume will overwhelm du Plessis in later rounds. He compares it to the Abus Magomedov fight where Strickland survived an early onslaught and took over.

du Plessis round 1 KO at +1000, du Plessis KO at +300, Strickland round 4 at +1500, Strickland round 5 at +2100
"Strickland will be the official pick but I think the prop side is how I'm going to attack this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis, comparing him to Jared Cannonier but with more durability and forward pressure. He notes Strickland's struggles against grapplers and fighters who push forward. He highlights du Plessis's improved cardio, low kicks, and multi-shot combos. He predicts a TKO in round two, possibly after dropping Strickland.

TKO, round 2
"drias dupi in my opinion is going to win this fight by TKO or submission I see this happening at some point in the second round or maybe late in the first"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Raquel Pennington

Raquel Pennington W

16-10
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–45) R5 5:00
Fight 2 VS Women's Bantamweight Completed

Raquel Pennington

Moneyline
Caesars +155
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1800
Submission
BetWay +900
Decision
BetRivers +250

Mayra Bueno Silva

Moneyline
BetWay -160
KO/TKO
BetRivers +850
Submission
BetRivers +215
Decision
FanDuel +300
Fighter Stats

Raquel Pennington

Age37
Height5' 7"
Reach67.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Mayra Bueno Silva

Age34
Height5' 6"
Reach66.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Raquel Pennington

4.1SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.32SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
0.83TD Avg
27.0%TD Acc.
62.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Mayra Bueno Silva

3.71SLpM
56.0%Str. Acc.
4.9SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.51TD Avg
23.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
1.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Pennington, citing her experience, pressure, and control style. He acknowledges Bueno Silva's power and submissions but believes Pennington's grit and high-level experience will prevail. He has a quarter unit on Pennington at plus 135 and will monitor for better value. He notes the potential distraction of Pennington's eight-month-old baby.

Quarter unit bet at +135; may add more if value improves
"I'm going to go rockel Pennington she is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Big Brady picks Silva, noting her submission skills are top-notch. He expects the fight to hit the mat at some point, where Silva will have the advantage. He thinks the striking will be close but Silva's forward pressure and durability will be key. He predicts a submission win for Silva.

submission
"give me Silva to win this fight and I guess she's going to become bantamweight champion"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Cody picks Bueno Silva but is not confident, citing her submission threat and the fact that Pennington fights in the clinch where Silva caught Holly Holm. However, he worries about Silva's cardio and the lack of her ADHD medication (ritalinic acid) in a five-round fight. He sees Pennington as a live underdog but ultimately goes with Silva.

"I got Mayra Bueno Silva but there's a whole lot of red flags... the pick's going to be Bueno Silva."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Vreeland picks Bueno Silva, analyzing her striking success against Holly Holm. He notes that Silva found the range against Holm and landed impactful strikes. He contrasts Pennington's lack of range kicks and long fighting style, which should allow Silva to close distance. Vreeland also mentions Silva's submission threat if Pennington shoots takedowns. He sees Silva overwhelming Pennington on the feet.

"I'm gonna go marro Buena Silva I think if you watch her fight with Holly Holm she was actually having some success in the Striking in finding the range of Holly Holm who's you know notoriously kind of …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Daniel Vreeland picks Mayra Bueno Silva to become the new bantamweight champion. He highlights her heavy power, devastating leg kicks, and finishing instinct, including the ninja choke. He expects her calf kicks to be effective against Pennington's stationary boxing style, and believes she will land the harder shots throughout the fight, possibly finishing or winning a decision.

"I'm picking maira Shara Bueno Silva to become the new UFC bantamweight champion"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Fox picks Bueno Silva as the better fighter, but acknowledges Pennington's tendency to win. He notes Pennington's year-long layoff as a concern. Fox doesn't provide detailed technical analysis but defers to Silva's overall skill advantage.

"I'm taking Myra buo Silva as well just a better Fighter um it's hard though Pennington somehow she wins gumy she always wins so I can that could very easily happen here again but I think I'm going …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host only covers the main event, co-main event (Weili Zhang vs Tatiana Suarez), and other fights, but not Pennington vs Bueno Silva.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

I'm leaning on Bueno Silva to win inside the distance, likely by submission. Pennington could be the busier fighter and win rounds with volume, but Bueno Silva has a finish-heavy style that can break and frustrate Pennington. I think Bueno Silva lands a shot that opens up a clinch and sub opportunity. I'm not taking the moneyline at -155; I prefer the inside distance prop. I'd be very surprised if Pennington finishes Bueno Silva.

inside distance, submission victory
"I'm going to say Bueno Sila inside the distance that will likely end up being a bet too but I think she wins this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Paul picks Pennington, emphasizing her experience in five-round fights, superior cardio, and wrestling. He notes Bueno Silva's submission threat but believes Pennington can avoid submissions and take over in later rounds. He also jokes about Silva missing her ADHD medication affecting her focus.

"I'm going to enact the CF dot model for this one... it's Pennington for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

The MMA Guru picks Mayra Bueno Silva, citing her higher finishing potential and submission ability. He notes her win over Holly Holm (though overturned) and her competitive fight with Manon Fiorot. He believes she will submit Pennington with a knee bar in round two.

submission via knee bar, round 2
"I'm going with Maya Bueno Silva over Raquel Pennington I think her finishing potential is just way higher than Raquel Pennington"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Neil Magny

Neil Magny W

31-15
TKO (punches) R3 4:45
Fight 3 VS Welterweight Completed

Neil Magny

Moneyline
Caesars +320
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1100
Submission
BetRivers +2000
Decision
BetRivers +540

Mike Malott

Moneyline
BetWay -350
KO/TKO
FanDuel +310
Submission
FanDuel +135
Decision
FanDuel +500
Fighter Stats

Neil Magny

Age38
Height6' 3"
Reach80.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Mike Malott

Age34
Height6' 1"
Reach73.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Neil Magny

3.4SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
2.44SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
2.17TD Avg
39.0%TD Acc.
55.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Mike Malott

3.93SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.06SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
1.88TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
14.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Angelo picks Malott, viewing this as a showcase for the Canadian prospect. He acknowledges Magny's experience and toughness but notes Magny has looked declining in recent fights. He warns against overexposure on Malott since this is his toughest opponent, but plans to have some action on him.

Will have some action on Malott; avoid overexposure
"this has to be a Mike mot pick this is the matchup in Canada for a reason"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Big Brady is very confident in Malott, calling it a setup fight. He notes Malott is dangerous everywhere with 100% finish rate, while Magny is 36, has taken damage, and has been submitted six times. He expects Malott to get a takedown and submit Magny in the first round.

first round submission
"give be Mike mot to win this fight by first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Cody is confident Malott wins, citing his size, strength, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Malott's quick finishes but acknowledges Magny's durability and cardio. He suggests Malott by decision as a prop because Magny is tough to finish.

Malott by decision at +400 to +450
"Mot definitely the pick... the prop is a little tricky... maybe mot by decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Vreeland picks Magny as a dog, citing the massive step up in competition for Malott. He notes Magny's size, reach advantage, and ability to impose his game plan. Vreeland questions Malott's path to victory, doubting he can outwrestle Magny or overcome the reach disadvantage on the feet. He sees value in the plus money.

plus 310 dog money
"I am going dog that's going to surprise you probably right Neil Magny I had a feeling you Neil Magny big step up like this is this is a real big step up from lot unless Magny is …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Daniel Vreeland picks Mike Malott to win but is hesitant due to Malott's unproven ceiling and Magny's veteran tactics. He acknowledges Malott's dangerous finishing ability and guillotine series, but worries about Magny's clinch game and length. He notes Magny has been fading but has also been a tough fade historically. He passes on betting the -400 line.

"I'm going to pick Mike mot to continuous streak and show out"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Fox also picks Magny, agreeing with Vreeland on the step up in competition. He notes Magny's reach advantage and good wrestling defense. Fox doesn't see a clear path for Malott, as Magny is a tall fighter who knows how to use his reach. He likes the dog money.

plus 310 dog money
"I don't really like the pass to Victory here from a lot do you think he's like gonna out wrestle Neil Magny like mag's got pretty good wrestling right like he he's at least defensively seems like he's …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Magny vs Malott.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mike Malott

I fully expect Malott to play with Magny on the feet, eventually drag the fight to the ground, and strangle him with a submission. Malott's grappling advantage is huge, and Magny has historically struggled against strong grapplers. The -365 line is a bit wide for a prospect against a veteran, but I think the fight will look like a cakewalk for Malott. I'm looking for a first-round submission.

submission victory, first round finish
"I fully expect Mike mot to play with Magny on the feet a little bit eventually drag this fight to the ground and strangle Neo Magny on route to a submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Paul agrees Malott wins but won't bet the -400 moneyline. He thinks Malott has the power and grappling advantage but Magny is durable and has gone the distance with top guys. He considers Malott by decision as a possible prop.

Malott by decision (mentioned as a possibility)
"I think mot wins... there's no way I touch the minus 400."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mike Malott

The MMA Guru picks Mike Malott, citing Magny's age and recent KO loss to Ian Garry. He trusts Malott's pressure and leg kicks, and predicts a submission via arm triangle in round two. He also mentions Magny's personal issues (custody battle) as a potential distraction.

submission, round 2
"I'm going to go with Mike Mallet I was going I was honestly hedging the idea of picking Neil Magny here"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Chris Curtis

Chris Curtis W

32-13
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 4 VS Middleweight Completed

Chris Curtis

Moneyline
Caesars -170
KO/TKO
FanDuel +270
Submission
FanDuel +2200
Decision
BetRivers +160

Marc-André Barriault

Moneyline
BetWay +160
KO/TKO
FanDuel +440
Submission
BetRivers +1700
Decision
BetRivers +410
Fighter Stats

Chris Curtis

Age38
Height5' 10"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Marc-André Barriault

Age36
Height6' 1"
Reach74"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Chris Curtis

5.52SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
5.75SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Marc-André Barriault

5.65SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
5.94SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
0.34TD Avg
28.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Angelo leans Barriault, citing his forward pressure, toughness, and Canadian home advantage. He worries that Curtis's counter-striking style may not impress judges if he's backing up. He notes Barriault must avoid Curtis's big hook. He has placed a quarter unit on Barriault at plus 150 and may add more if the line moves.

Quarter unit bet at +150; may add more if line moves to +200
"I am G to pick Mark Andre here I'm going to lean Mark Andre here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Big Brady picks Barriault as a dog, saying the odds make no sense. He notes Curtis is a slow starter who gets outlanded in most fights, while Barriault has high volume and is fighting in Canada. He expects a close fight that goes to decision, with Canadian judges potentially favoring Barriault. He doubts either fighter gets a knockout.

split decision
"give me the dog here Mark andario I do not get this line whatsoever"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody picks Curtis due to his higher level of competition and power advantage. He notes Curtis is a slow starter but has nasty power and volume. He expects a third-round TKO or decision win for Curtis.

Curtis by TKO in round 3
"I think it's going to be a third round stoppage for by TKO for Action Man or a decision win."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Vreeland picks Barriault as a home dog, noting his grappling and durability. He sees the fight as even but likes the plus money on Barriault. Vreeland acknowledges Barriault's cardio and durability as strengths, but doesn't elaborate on a specific path to victory beyond the value.

plus 165 dog money on home soil
"I'll go with bario I think it's worth a stab at at the dog money on his on his home soil um good Grappler doesn't doesn't rely on grappling very much better Striker but less power than than …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Daniel Vreeland picks Marc-André Barriault as a live dog. He notes that Curtis often needs a knockout to win, otherwise he loses decisions. Barriault is durable, has nasty uppercuts and elbows in the clinch, and can crack. Vreeland expects Barriault to win by decision if he survives Curtis's early power.

by decision
"I'm actually gonna pick him to win this fight probably by decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Fox picks Curtis, believing he is the right style to beat Barriault. He notes that Barriault's best weapons are cardio and durability, but Curtis doesn't overextend and stays within himself. Fox points to Curtis's defensive grappling against opponents like Brendan Allen and Nassourdine Imavov as evidence he can handle Barriault's grappling. He thinks Barriault gets hit a lot and isn't overly sharp on the feet, so Curtis should win if he doesn't get drawn into prolonged exchanges.

"I think Chris Curtis is the right kind of guy to beat Mark Andre bario uh if if you ask me what Bario's best weapon is I think it's pretty obvious it's disc cardio um it's cardio and …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Curtis vs Barriault.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

I'm going with Barriault as an underdog. He is active, high pressure, high pace, and has great cardio. He can stick at distance, utilize kicks, and mix in the clinch. Curtis is reliant on a knockout to win, but Barriault's style should be tough for Curtis to overcome. I think Barriault puts together a better overall body of work and wins by decision.

decision victory
"as an underdog got to go with the guy bario here to go out there and put together their better overall body of workc to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul picks Curtis by KO, citing his power advantage and Barriault's chinny history. He thinks Curtis will land a big shot after a slow start, possibly in round 2 or 3. He notes Barriault's cardio but believes Curtis's power is the difference.

Curtis by KO at +225
"I think Curtis by KO is how I see this fight playing out."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis, citing his body work and pressure. He notes Barriault's tendency to get overwhelmed by volume and gassing, and believes Curtis's body shots will be key. He mentions Curtis's power advantage and the motivation from training with Sean Strickland. He predicts a TKO via body shots in round two or three.

TKO via body shots, round 2 or 3
"I'm going with Chris Curtis here over Mark Andre barot"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Movsar Evloev

Movsar Evloev W

20-0
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 5 VS Featherweight Completed

Movsar Evloev

Moneyline
BetMGM -185
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1200
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
FanDuel -120

Arnold Allen

Moneyline
Caesars +180
KO/TKO
BetWay +800
Submission
BetRivers +1100
Decision
FanDuel +320
Fighter Stats

Movsar Evloev

Age32
Height5' 7"
Reach72.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Arnold Allen

Age32
Height5' 8"
Reach70.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Movsar Evloev

3.91SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
2.8SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
4.78TD Avg
52.0%TD Acc.
61.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Arnold Allen

3.47SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
3.04SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
0.86TD Avg
47.0%TD Acc.
71.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Angelo picks Evloev, believing his wrestling will be the difference. He notes Allen's excellent takedown defense (not taken down since 2018) but thinks Evloev's chain wrestling and volume will eventually get takedowns. He compares the fight to Fares Ziam vs. Terrance McKinney, expecting a 30-27 decision. He is unsure about including Evloev in the safety parlay.

Over 2.5 rounds (safest play)
"I do think mosar evev wins this fight hopefully we get a well one and a half round line would be a gift but hopefully we get decent odds on over two and a half because that's the …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Big Brady picks Evloev, citing his undefeated record and high takedown volume. He notes Allen's takedown defense is good but not great, and that Allen has been taken down multiple times in the past by wrestlers. He believes Evloev will control the fight with wrestling and win a decision, unless Allen lands a knockout which he doesn't see happening.

decision
"give me evev to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Cody picks Evloev by decision, emphasizing his elite wrestling and ability to control the fight. He notes Allen's struggles against wrestlers like Mads Burnell and believes Evloev will replicate that game plan. He sees Evloev's decision prop as good value.

Evloev by decision at -117
"I think he does the same thing here and by decision... you can Juice It Up way better by taking the decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Vreeland picks Evloev, citing his well-rounded game and solid striking. He believes Evloev is a slightly better all-around fighter than Allen, and that his grappling will be a key factor. Vreeland notes that Allen hasn't faced a grappler of Evloev's caliber recently, and that Evloev's takedowns could decide the fight. He suggests watching the first minute to see if Evloev can get takedowns, which would indicate his path to victory.

"I have decided to go with a Lev here um good good enough Striker I think um to to handle Allen and the and the Very solid Grappler as well basically all round game as does Allan but …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Daniel Vreeland picks Movsar Evloev to win a comfortable decision. He believes Evloev's relentless wrestling and pressure will neutralize Allen over three rounds, especially in the later rounds. He notes Evloev's takedown volume and ability to mix striking with takedowns. He bet two units on Evloev at -175.

"I took uh msar evloev here at minus 175 a few days ago I played it to win two units"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Fox picks Allen, arguing that his striking is sharper than Evloev's. He points to Evloev's close fight with Diego Lopes on short notice and Allen's competitive fight with Max Holloway as evidence. Fox believes the key question is whether Evloev can get takedowns; if not, Allen wins the striking exchanges. He suggests it may be a live bet opportunity after the first minute.

"I'm goingon to go Arnold Allen uh I don't think his striking game is better for the record I I mean I think we just watched him fight Diego Lopes in I mean Diego Lopes on like what …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Evloev vs Allen.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

I love Evloev in this spot. Even if he doesn't land takedowns, his volume and output advantage should be enough to win on the scorecards if it becomes a striking battle. Allen's takedown defense has been good recently, but the level of wrestlers he faced is not as high as Evloev. Evloev is well-rounded enough to mix up his game and combat Allen's low output. I think Evloev wins by decision and possibly puts himself in a number one contender fight.

decision victory
"I love evev in this spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Evloev by decision. He thinks Evloev's wrestling will be the difference and the fight will be ugly. He notes the best price on Evloev by decision is -117.

Evloev by decision at -117
"I think Evloev is going to find the ability to just get the takedowns... Evloev by decision don't mind that."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

The MMA Guru picks Arnold Allen as an underdog, despite acknowledging Evloev's grappling. He cites Evloev's recent ACL injury and poor striking defense, noting openings in his punches. He praises Allen's lateral movement, defensive wrestling, and ability to counter. He predicts a close decision win for Allen, 29-28.

decision 29-28
"I actually think Arnold Allen's going to win I'm not just picking him oh MMA Guru hates dagestani Fighters"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Garrett Armfield

Garrett Armfield W

10-5
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 6 VS Bantamweight Completed

Garrett Armfield

Moneyline
DraftKings +195
KO/TKO
BetRivers +650
Submission
FanDuel +1300
Decision
BetMGM +425

Brad Katona

Moneyline
FanDuel -210
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1200
Submission
FanDuel +350
Decision
BetRivers +128
Fighter Stats

Garrett Armfield

Age29
Height5' 6"
Reach70.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Brad Katona

Age34
Height5' 6"
Reach64.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Garrett Armfield

5.35SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
3.64SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
1.1TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Brad Katona

4.81SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
4.75SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.86TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
61.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Angelo picks Katona, citing his footwork, volume, and cardio as advantages. He expects Katona to take over as Armfield slows down, predicting a 29-28 decision. He initially thought the odds were wide but talked himself into confidence, planning to place a bet.

Will bet on Katona
"Brad Katana should win this fight and I just talked myself to being even more confident in him probably going to throw a bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Big Brady picks Katona, expecting him to fight smart and use wrestling. He notes Armfield has poor takedown defense and has lost by submission twice. He believes Katona's fight IQ and experience against better competition will lead to a decision win. He thinks Katona won't brawl like he did against Cody Gibson.

decision
"I think he gets it done by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Cody picks Katona due to his well-rounded skills, technical boxing, and experience. He thinks Armfield lacks the grappling to stick with Katona and will break under pressure. He predicts a late stoppage or decision win for Katona.

"I think Katona wins... maybe a late stoppage win for Brad Katona."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Brad Katona but hopes he is wrong. He notes Katona's experience and ability to slow down younger fighters, but worries about his recent war with Cody Gibson and potential decline. Armfield has heavy hands and could knock Katona out, but Vreeland expects Katona to grind out a decision or get a submission.

"I'm a lean Katona a little bit but i' I'd love to see Garrett Armfield win"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Armfield vs Katona.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Brad Katona

I'm taking Katona to win by decision. He has a huge experience advantage and higher fight IQ. He can blend his wrestling behind his striking to catch Armfield by surprise. I think Armfield will be surprised by the pace Katona sets. Katona will give Armfield different looks and outpoint him. However, Armfield has potential and could showcase he's ready for this level, but I'm still going with Katona.

decision victory
"I think Kona comes out on the winning end here and gets his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Paul picks Katona, noting his intelligence and well-rounded game. He jokes about Katona's fake Irish accent but respects his skills. He thinks Katona will use takedowns and top control to win a decision.

"It's the Brad Katona style... you're not going to love it watching it typically but it's effective."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Brad Katona

The MMA Guru picks Brad Katona, calling him underrated and noting his wins over undefeated fighters in Brave CF. He criticizes Garrett Armfield's level of competition and questions his consistency. He highlights Katona's toughness, kicks, and takedown ability. He predicts a submission win via rear-naked choke in round two.

submission, round 2
"I'm going to go with Brad katuna the weirdest accented man in the UFC I think he's better than Garrett Armfield"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Sean Woodson

Sean Woodson W

13-2-1
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 7 VS Featherweight Completed

Sean Woodson

Moneyline
DraftKings +180
KO/TKO
BetMGM +750
Submission
BetRivers +2200
Decision
BetRivers +295

Charles Jourdain

Moneyline
FanDuel -200
KO/TKO
BetRivers +285
Submission
FanDuel +600
Decision
FanDuel +200
Fighter Stats

Sean Woodson

Age33
Height6' 2"
Reach78.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Charles Jourdain

Age30
Height5' 9"
Reach69.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Sean Woodson

5.57SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
4.18SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
0.58TD Avg
55.0%TD Acc.
84.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Charles Jourdain

5.48SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
4.25SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.33TD Avg
21.0%TD Acc.
47.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Angelo picks Jourdain despite acknowledging Woodson's reach and takedown defense. He believes Jourdain's pressure, chin, and ability to keep the fight ugly will be key. He notes that Woodson showed grappling in his last fight but Jourdain's takedown defense is poor, yet still favors Jourdain's doggedness.

"the pick is good going to be jordane because he is such a dog and he has a couple different ways to win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Big Brady picks Jourdain, noting that Woodson is a boxer who won't take Jourdain down, and if he does, he risks getting submitted. He compares the fight to Woodson's loss to Julian Erosa, where Erosa pressured and broke Woodson. He believes Jourdain's power, grappling, and third-round mythical status will lead to a late submission.

third round submission
"give me Charles jordaine to win this fight and win this fight by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Cody picks Jourdain, citing his power, cardio, and home-field advantage. He notes Woodson's lack of power and wrestling, and believes Jourdain will overwhelm him with volume and power. He sees Jourdain winning by KO or decision.

"I think Charles Jourdain wins this fight... my boy Air Jordan gets the win."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Charles Jourdain in a fight he sees as a 50-50 banger. He notes both fighters build into fights and have opportunistic submissions. He gives a slight edge to Jourdain's aggressiveness and the Canadian crowd possibly influencing judges. He expects a back-and-forth war with a close decision or finish.

"I'm gonna lean a little bit towards Jordan"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Woodson vs Jourdain.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sean Woodson

I'm picking Woodson to win this fight on the scorecards. He is the better technical striker with a significant height and reach advantage. If he can stick with his jab and stay on the outside, he can outvolume Jourdain from distance. Jourdain's unorthodox striking could allow him to crash the pocket, but Woodson's chin might be suspect. However, I think Woodson does a good enough job rolling with shots and sticking to his game plan. I don't think Jourdain can successfully take a grapple-heavy approach either.

decision victory
"give me Woodson to win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Paul picks Jourdain but is hesitant due to the -220 price. He thinks the fight could be close and Woodson's reach could pose problems. He notes the line movement suggests sharp money on Jourdain but still sees value in the Canadian favorite.

"I think Charles Jourdain wins but the current price of minus 220 I am a little bit nervous."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

The MMA Guru picks Charles Jourdain, despite Woodson's 9-inch reach advantage. He questions Woodson's chin and level of competition, calling his opponents not UFC-level. He praises Jourdain's improved shot selection, patience, and submission skills. He predicts a TKO win for Jourdain in Canada.

TKO
"I'm going with Charles Jordan over Shawn Woodson I think this is a little bit of a no-brainer"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Ramon Taveras

Ramon Taveras W

10-4
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 8 VS Catchweight (139.75 lb) Completed

Ramon Taveras

Moneyline
Caesars +180
KO/TKO
FanDuel +340
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
FanDuel +800

Serhiy Sidey

Moneyline
BetWay -180
KO/TKO
BetWay +240
Submission
FanDuel +600
Decision
BetRivers +380
Fighter Stats

Ramon Taveras

Age32
Height5' 8"
Reach70.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Serhiy Sidey

Age29
Height5' 11"
Reach72.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Ramon Taveras

4.07SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
6.45SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Serhiy Sidey

4.49SLpM
39.0%Str. Acc.
4.26SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
1.58TD Avg
25.0%TD Acc.
20.0%TD Def.
1.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Serhiy Sidey

Angelo picks Sidey based on his previous knockout win over Taveras, but is hesitant to bet due to both fighters being UFC debutants. He notes Sidey's leg exposure but doubts Taveras will exploit it. He advises against laying minus 180 and prefers to watch the fight.

No bet; just watch
"I don't think I'm going to lay out minus 180 on sgei probably just watch the fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Ramon Taveras

Big Brady picks Taveras as a dog, citing his incredible power and hand speed for bantamweight. He notes Taveras has a high knockdown ratio and dropped his last opponent three times. He believes the first fight was stopped too early and that Taveras will flip the script with a first-round knockout. He questions Sidey's takedown game but expects a striking battle.

first round knockout
"give me tares by first round knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Serhiy Sidey

Cody picks Sidey, noting he already finished Taveras in their first fight. He questions Taveras's chin and durability, citing his loss to Edward Massey and fight with Charles Bennett. He believes Sidey's grappling and power will lead to another finish.

Fight doesn't go the distance
"It's going to be a similar outcome... someone's getting finished."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Serhiy Sidey

Daniel Vreeland picks Serhiy Sidey to win again, crediting his beautiful combination that dropped Taveras in their first fight. He notes Sidey's outside kicking game and defense, while Taveras is a violent brawler with power. He expects Sidey to be more confident and potentially finish again, but acknowledges Taveras's knockout power.

"I'm gonna pick cidi to defeat toas for a second time"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Taveras vs Sidey.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Serhiy Sidey

I'm taking Sidey again. He is the superior striker and as long as he can stay safe, he should be able to find Taveras's chin and get the knockout. In their first fight, Sidey landed a perfect counter and followed up with hammer strikes, though it was a quick stoppage. I expect him to run the same script and win by knockout.

knockout victory
"give me City once again I think as long as he can stay safe we saw him eat a couple shots from tar not even Flinch continue to stick with his game plan and eventually pulled off his …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Serhiy Sidey

Paul picks Sidey and has already bet under 1.5 rounds. He notes Taveras's aggressive style and questionable chin, and believes Sidey will finish him again. He sees the under as a pick'em and good value.

Under 1.5 rounds at -106
"I'm going to pick Sidey... I actually have put money already on the under one and a half rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Ramon Taveras

The MMA Guru picks the underdog Ramon Taveras, despite losing to Sidey on the Contender Series. He argues the TKO was premature and off-balance, and that Taveras looked better on the feet. He cites Taveras's move to Team Alpha Male, his superior boxing, and Sidey's potential lack of motivation. He predicts Taveras will win.

"I'm actually going to go with the underdog which is unexpected of Taris cuz I've actually done my research and watched his fights I'm going with him"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Gillian Robertson

Gillian Robertson W

17-8
TKO (punches) R2 3:12
Fight 9 VS Women's Strawweight Completed

Gillian Robertson

Moneyline
DraftKings -298
KO/TKO
BetRivers +950
Submission
FanDuel +145
Decision
BetRivers +235

Polyana Viana

Moneyline
Caesars +250
KO/TKO
BetRivers +850
Submission
FanDuel +850
Decision
BetMGM +750
Fighter Stats

Gillian Robertson

Age31
Height5' 5"
Reach63.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Polyana Viana

Age33
Height5' 5"
Reach67.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Gillian Robertson

2.71SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.86SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
2.76TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
38.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Polyana Viana

2.74SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
2.5SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.75TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
35.0%TD Def.
1.7Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo picks Robertson but with medium confidence, noting her grappling credentials and record submission wins. He criticizes her inability to get fights to the ground despite being a great grappler, and acknowledges Viana's own dangerous ground game. He expects Robertson to win via grappling but is wary of Viana's toughness and cardio.

"she should be good enough to beat paana Viana here I say medium confidence for her to get it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady is confident in Robertson because Viana has poor takedown defense and is content to play off her back, which plays into Robertson's strength. He notes Robertson has good ground and pound and submissions, while Viana's only path is a knockout. He predicts Robertson will get the fight down and submit Viana in the second round.

second round submission
"I'll take her to win this fight fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson, citing her superior wrestling and grappling. He questions Viana's jiu-jitsu and cardio, noting she gets tired and gives up submissions. He believes Robertson will take her down and control the fight.

"Robertson... she's got the superior grappling and the superior pace."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Daniel Vreeland picks Gillian Robertson by submission. He notes Robertson is one-dimensional but dangerous on the mat, while Viana can crack on the feet but is susceptible to submissions. He expects Robertson to chain takedowns and have her way on top, leading to a submission win.

by submission
"I'm gonna go Julian Robertson here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Robertson vs Viana.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

I expect Robertson to drag this fight to the ground and utilize her superior Jiu-Jitsu to control top position and eventually open up a submission opportunity. Viana relies too much on her guard off her back, and Robertson has good enough Jiu-Jitsu to stay out of submission threats. I think it's just a matter of time once the fight hits the mat that Robertson can work to a dominant position and sink in a submission. I like the under 2.5 rounds prop as well.

under 2.5 rounds, submission victory
"gim me Robertson again chalky under 2 and 1 half is another spot that I really like"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Polyana Viana

Paul picks Viana as a chaos pick, noting her volatility and submission threat. He acknowledges Robertson is more likely to win but has a gut feeling Viana could pull off an armbar. He suggests Viana inside the distance as a better bet.

Viana inside the distance at +600
"I'll pick Polyana Viana to pull off the upset in something super stupid."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

The MMA Guru picks Gillian Robertson, calling her a slight step above 'bottom feeder trash.' He criticizes Polyana Viana's lack of commitment and poor competition, noting she hasn't beaten anyone good. He believes Robertson can get top position safely and avoid Viana's submission threat.

"I'm going to go Julian Robertson now are both of them not good yes neither of them are really that good"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Sam Patterson

Sam Patterson W

14-3-1
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:03
Fight 10 VS Welterweight Completed

Sam Patterson

Moneyline
BetRivers +123
KO/TKO
BetRivers +480
Submission
BetRivers +360
Decision
FanDuel +850

Yohan Lainesse

Moneyline
BetMGM -140
KO/TKO
BetWay +130
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
BetRivers +850
Fighter Stats

Sam Patterson

Age30
Height6' 3"
Reach78.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Yohan Lainesse

Age33
Height6' 1"
Reach76.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Sam Patterson

2.62SLpM
37.0%Str. Acc.
3.06SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.82TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
33.0%TD Def.
1.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Yohan Lainesse

2.22SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
3.38SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
0.94TD Avg
28.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Yohan Lainesse

Angelo picks Lainesse due to his power and Patterson's suspect chin, referencing Patterson's recent knockout loss. He notes that both fighters can finish each other, but expects Lainesse to land on Patterson's chin. He also plans to bet the under on the round total if a 2.5 round line becomes available.

Under 2.5 rounds (if line drops)
"the easy answer is Johan has power Sam Patterson gets knocked out so I'm going to go with the easy answer here Johan liones is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Yohan Lainesse

Big Brady picks Lainesse but hates the pick. He notes Lainesse has changed his style to be too conservative and gun-shy, but still has power and takedown defense. He thinks if the old Lainesse shows up, he knocks out Patterson early. He questions Patterson's chin and defense but acknowledges Patterson could win if Lainesse fights timidly.

first round knockout
"I'll take liones to knock out Sam Patterson in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Cody picks Patterson as an underdog, citing Lainesse's poor cardio and chin. He thinks if Patterson survives the first round, he can take over with his grappling and submission game. He notes Lainesse's power but believes Patterson's length and jiu-jitsu will be key.

"I am going to take the slight underdog shot on Sam Patterson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Yohan Lainesse

Daniel Vreeland picks Yohan Lainesse but is not confident. He notes Lainesse has devastating power and looked good in the Gabe Green fight before being stopped. He worries about Lainesse's recent gun-shy performances but hopes a change in training camp reignites his aggression. He expects a knockout if the old Lainesse shows up.

"give me Johan here but you know I'm not laying it"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Patterson vs Lainesse.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

I'm going with Patterson here. He is the better cleaner striker and has a better ground game. I wouldn't be surprised to see him change levels and look for a submission finish. Lainesse is a solid power puncher but in terms of raw skills, Patterson is the better fighter. If the line climbs closer to +150, it becomes even more attractive. I think no matter who wins, it ends by finish, and I'll take Patterson by submission.

submission prop, fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to go with Patterson I think Patterson wins this fight likely by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Yohan Lainesse

Paul leans Lainesse by KO in round 1, citing his power and Patterson's shaky chin. He acknowledges Lainesse's cardio issues but thinks he can get an early knockout. He doesn't love the bet but picks Lainesse.

Lainesse KO round 1
"I'll say Johan KO round one but don't love it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Yohan Lainesse

The MMA Guru picks Yohan Lainesse, emphasizing his power and the home crowd advantage in Canada. He criticizes Sam Patterson's defensive flaws, particularly his chin-up stance and susceptibility to overhands. He notes Patterson's recent KO loss and the risk of moving up in weight to face a heavy hitter. He predicts a KO win for Lainesse.

KO
"I'm going to go Johan leness I think he's going to find the KO he's fighting in front of his home crowd in Canada"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Jasmine Jasudavicius

Jasmine Jasudavicius W

15-4
Submission (anaconda choke) R3 4:21
Fight 11 VS Women's Bantamweight Completed

Jasmine Jasudavicius

Moneyline
BetWay -375
KO/TKO
BetWay +600
Submission
FanDuel +480
Decision
BetRivers +102

Priscila Cachoeira

Moneyline
Caesars +340
KO/TKO
BetRivers +575
Submission
BetRivers +2400
Decision
BetRivers +1050
Fighter Stats

Jasmine Jasudavicius

Age37
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Priscila Cachoeira

Age37
Height5' 7"
Reach65.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Jasmine Jasudavicius

3.7SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
3.71SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
2.59TD Avg
44.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Priscila Cachoeira

4.43SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
7.6SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
0.25TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
69.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Angelo is extremely confident in Jasudavicius, calling her his most confident pick on the card. He highlights her wrestling background, pressure, and ability to take down opponents, noting that Cachoeira is vulnerable to wrestlers. He believes Jasudavicius will dominate via takedowns and control, and considers her at minus 400 to be great value.

Parlay piece; great value at minus 400
"this is my most confident pick on the card just straight up and it's Jasmine"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Big Brady is confident in Jasudavicius due to her wrestling base and physical strength. He notes that Cachoeira struggles against wrestlers and is helpless on her back. He expects Jasudavicius to take her down repeatedly and win a decision. He also mentions Cachoeira's history of cheating but doesn't think it will matter.

decision
"give me Jasmine Jazz The Vicious to win this fight I'll take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Cody picks Jasudavicius, citing her wrestling and pace. He thinks she will mix in takedowns and control the fight, avoiding a brawl. He notes Cachoeira's vulnerability to wrestling and expects a clear decision or late stoppage for Jasudavicius.

"I think she'll utilize both things to beat Jasmine... a clear-cut decision or a late stoppage."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Daniel Vreeland picks Jasmine Jasudavicius but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Jasudavicius is relentless with takedowns and physical, while Cachoeira has power and will cheat. He expects Jasudavicius to dominate on top and win a decision or get a finish, but acknowledges Cachoeira's threat on the feet.

"I'm gonna go Jasmine Jaz deicious here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Jasudavicius vs Cachoeira.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

I fully expect Jasudavicius to have no trouble getting this fight to the mat and then dominate with her wrestling. She has great scrambles and control from top position. However, I'm not 100% sold on her getting a finish, as Cachoeira might show enough resistance to grind out a decision. The moneyline at -370 is chalky but I feel the advantage is so far in Jasudavicius's favor that I might as well throw it into a parlay. I see this as a shoo-in spot for her to be dominant with her wrestling.

parlay, decision victory
"I fully expect Jaz de visus to have no trouble getting this fight to the mat and then it all depends on will the fighter that normally does not get finishes be dominant enough on the mat that …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Priscila Cachoeira

Paul picks Cachoeira as a sentimental underdog, having bet her at +330. He hopes for a brawl and a KO, but acknowledges Jasudavicius is the more likely winner. He admits it's a heart pick.

"I'm not going to let cab fight in my country and not have at least a little ticket for it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

The MMA Guru picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, citing her higher level of competition and technical skill compared to Priscila Cachoeira. He notes Jasudavicius's win over Miranda Maverick and her durability, while acknowledging Cachoeira's power advantage. He also mentions Jasudavicius's reach advantage and the home crowd factor in Canada.

"I am going to go of Jasmine Juda vicious I think she's lost to better opponents than Priscilla kakua"
Fight Notes

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Jimmy Flick

Jimmy Flick W

17-9
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 1:17
Fight 12 VS Catchweight (127.5 lb) Completed

Jimmy Flick

No odds available.

Malcolm Gordon

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Jimmy Flick

Age35
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Malcolm Gordon

Age36
Height5' 7"
Reach71.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Jimmy Flick

1.67SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
4.7SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
2.36TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
3.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Malcolm Gordon

2.5SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
2.0SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
1.72TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
26.0%TD Def.
1.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

Angelo sees both fighters as chinny grapplers with poor takedown defense and mediocre takedown offense. He believes Flick is the more dangerous grappler and that if Flick can get past Gordon's 9% takedown defense, he will have a significant advantage. However, he calls the fight super close and advises not betting on it due to too many variables.

Do not bet on this fight
"I will ever so slightly lean flick here and that is only based off the grappling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

Big Brady picks Jimmy Flick despite acknowledging both fighters have terrible durability. He notes Flick's wrestling looked better than expected in past fights and believes Flick is the better grappler against Malcolm Gordon's 9% takedown defense. However, he expresses major concerns about Flick's mentality after a retirement and two knockout losses. He says he is not betting Flick but predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"give me flick to go out there and sub Malcolm Gordon in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

Cody picks Flick as an underdog, citing his wrestling advantage and Gordon's 9% takedown defense. He believes Flick will take Gordon down and submit him or control the fight. He notes Flick's motivation and improved cardio.

Flick by submission at +345
"I think this is a Jimmy flick pick... flick by submission is live."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel Vreeland refuses to pick a winner, calling both fighters fragile and untrustworthy at the UFC level. He notes both have no chins and are black belts who can submit each other, but he does not trust either. He advises against betting on this fight.

"I don't even want to pick this fight I don't even want to watch this fight"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Flick vs Gordon.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

I'm leaning with the underdog Jimmy Flick here. I don't think Gordon provides enough issues on the feet for Flick, and it's just a matter of time before the fight hits the mat. Even though Gordon might think he has the advantage there, I think Flick is a little too crafty for him and should get the better of him on the mat. I expect a submission finish within the first two rounds.

submission finish, inside first two rounds, plus 110 underdog
"I'm actually going to lean with the underdog ever so slightly here with Jimmy flick"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Malcolm Gordon

Paul picks Gordon but is not confident, noting his chin issues and lack of knockout power. He thinks Gordon's striking and jiu-jitsu should be enough, but he won't bet the -190. He acknowledges Flick's grappling threat.

"Malcolm Gordon will be the pick for me... I ain't betting Gordon as a chalk favorite."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Malcolm Gordon

The MMA Guru leans towards Malcolm Gordon due to physicality and reach advantages at flyweight. He notes Gordon's straight punches and ability to keep the fight standing as key factors. He acknowledges Gordon's chinny nature but believes his competition level is higher than Flick's. He predicts a TKO in the second round via straight punches.

TKO in round 2
"I am leaning towards Malcolm Gordon here over Jimmy flick for multiple reasons one little bit of a physicality Advantage at flyweight over Jimmy flick in my opinion two re Advantage at flyweight he's got three inches of …"
Fight Notes

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