Fight card

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2

July 27, 2024 Co-op Live Manchester, England, UK
Belal Muhammad

Belal Muhammad W

24-5
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00
Fight 1 VS Welterweight Completed

Belal Muhammad

Moneyline
BetRivers +225
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1100
Submission
BetRivers +2000
Decision
BetRivers +400

Leon Edwards

Moneyline
Caesars -250
KO/TKO
FanDuel +290
Submission
FanDuel +1500
Decision
FanDuel +120
Fighter Stats

Belal Muhammad

Age37
Height5' 11"
Reach72.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Leon Edwards

Age34
Height6' 2"
Reach74.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Belal Muhammad

4.43SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.82SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
2.14TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
90.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Leon Edwards

2.6SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
2.44SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
1.25TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Angelo picks Leon Edwards to win, citing Edwards' sharper striking and takedown defense. He notes that Belal Muhammad's wrestling pressure could be a factor, but expects Edwards to defend takedowns and frustrate Belal as the fight goes on. Angelo admits he will be rooting for Belal but believes Edwards is the more proven champion. He also mentions that Belal has been training with the Dagestani wrestlers and could maul Edwards, but still leans Edwards.

"I think Leon Edwards is going to be sharper on the feet defend a few takedowns I think balam Muhammad as the fight goes on is going to get more and more frustrated and I think Leon Edwards …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Cody believes Belal Muhammad is a talented generalist who can adapt his game plan to any opponent. He points out that Belal has shown different wrinkles, such as out-striking Gilbert Burns and Shawn Brady, and that his wrestling and pressure will be key. Cody notes that Leon Edwards has a history of dropping later rounds, as seen against Colby Covington and Rafael dos Anjos, and that Belal's volume and pace could overwhelm Leon in the championship rounds. He also mentions that Belal is at his best now, while Leon's previous opponents were past their prime.

Belal Muhammad by decision
"I think he can just crash the pocket and constantly come forward and constantly pressure try to use the volume game... second third fourth and fifth he needs just to make this absolute grind."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Daniel argues that Belal Muhammad has improved significantly since the first fight, citing dominant wins over Shawn Brady and Gilbert Burns. He believes Leon Edwards has not looked better since winning the title, coasting against Colby Covington and a diminished Kamaru Usman. He emphasizes Belal's newfound wrestling focus and improved striking reads, predicting he will overwhelm Edwards. He also advises waiting on Belal's line as it may drift further due to public sentiment against Belal's trash talk.

Wait on Belal Muhammad line; expects line to move further in his favor
"I'm going B Muhammad because since their last fight I don't know that that Leon Edwards has looked better"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Daniel argues that the first fight was not a domination, citing no knockdowns, no 10-8 round, and a close strike count. He believes Belal's relentless pace, high output, and ability to pressure will overwhelm Leon, who has shown fatigue in later rounds. He also notes that Belal is undervalued by the market and has consistently been a profitable underdog. He acknowledges Leon's kicking threat but thinks Belal can close distance and make it a dirty fight.

"I'm going an new balal Muhammad um and I'm riding this uh train till the to till the wheels fall off"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Jeff picks Leon Edwards, noting he looked good in the brief first fight and has been improving since winning the belt. He acknowledges Edwards' recent opponents (Covington, Usman, Diaz) are not elite, but still trusts the champion's development. He believes Edwards' reads and feints were working before the eye poke and expects him to handle Belal's pressure.

"going with the champ he looked good in their first fight even how brief it was he was you know getting his work done getting his reads in getting his faints in"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Paul favors Leon Edwards, citing his speed, slickness, and striking advantage. He argues that Leon was winning the first fight before the eye poke and has improved his takedown defense, as seen against Colby Covington. Paul believes Belal's power doesn't scare him and that Leon will win most exchanges on the feet. He also notes that Belal's path to victory relies on takedowns and control, but Leon has made strides in those areas.

"I think Leon at you know it's minus 230 minus 250 it's kind of moved to in some spots like I think he's a rightful favorite here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

The MMA Guru picks Leon Edwards by TKO in round two. He believes Edwards is a level above Belal Muhammad, as shown in their first fight where Edwards had success before the head kick. The Guru notes Edwards' reach advantage, distance management, and improved takedown defense from training with wrestlers like Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington. He thinks Muhammad will be hesitant and that Edwards will land a punch for the finish. He also mentions Muhammad's PED use as a concern but still favors Edwards.

TKO in round 2
"I'm going to go with Leon Edwards getting this one done he's got a bit of reach advantage to work with here and we know if Edwards has reach over an opponent even if he doesn't against usan …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Tom Aspinall

Tom Aspinall W

15-3
KO (punches) R1 1:00
Fight 2 VS Heavyweight Completed

Tom Aspinall

Moneyline
BetWay -400
KO/TKO
BetRivers -150
Submission
FanDuel +490
Decision
FanDuel +1200

Curtis Blaydes

Moneyline
Caesars +320
KO/TKO
BetRivers +525
Submission
DraftKings +2800
Decision
BetRivers +1500
Fighter Stats

Tom Aspinall

Age33
Height6' 5"
Reach78.0"
Weight256 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Curtis Blaydes

Age35
Height6' 4"
Reach80.0"
Weight265 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Tom Aspinall

7.63SLpM
67.0%Str. Acc.
3.62SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
2.62TD Avg
80.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
1.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Curtis Blaydes

3.56SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
2.0SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
5.38TD Avg
48.0%TD Acc.
31.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Angelo picks Tom Aspinall, noting that Curtis Blaydes has abandoned his wrestling and has not attempted a takedown in three years. He believes Aspinall is the much better striker and may even mix in takedowns after watching Blaydes get taken down by Jailton Almeida. Angelo warns that heavyweights can always land a knockout, but confidently picks Aspinall.

"Tom is the much better Striker honestly Tom might work in some takedowns after watching what gton did to him so Tom's got to be the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Cody picks Tom Aspinall, noting his superior boxing, power, and athleticism. He points out that Curtis Blaydes often fails to commit to takedowns and gets knocked out when standing, as seen against Francis Ngannou and Sergei Pavlovich. Cody believes Aspinall's chin is better and that he can finish Blaydes early, likely by knockout in round one or two. He also mentions that Blaydes' wrestling may not be effective against Aspinall's BJJ.

Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO in round 1 or 2
"I think most likely result in this fight is Aspen in round one or round two by knockout."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Daniel picks Tom Aspinall, citing his superior wrestling, athleticism, and striking power. He notes that Aspinall took down and submitted Volkov, and knocked out Pavlovich, while Blaydes has been exposed by grapplers like Jailton Almeida. He doubts Blaydes can grind out a 25-minute decision and believes Aspinall is far more dangerous on the feet.

"I think between his athleticism, the way that he does wrestle when he needs to and just I mean like look at the power in the boxing and that last fight with Pavlovich"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Daniel dismisses the first fight as a fluke injury TKO and believes Tom Aspinall is the superior athlete with better footwork, striking, and fight IQ. He criticizes Blaydes' decision to stand with Pavlovich and thinks Aspinall will finish him early. He predicts a first-round knockout.

wins in round 1 by KO
"I'm going Tom Aspen all to knock out Curtis blades in the first round"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Jeff also picks Aspinall, agreeing with Daniel's assessment. He notes Aspinall has the complete package and Blaydes has been out-grappled before. He wishes the line were better but accepts it.

"Aspinall is a pick hoping we could get a little better line than we did but sadly we cannot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Paul takes a shot on Curtis Blaydes at plus money, citing the volatility of heavyweights. He acknowledges that Aspinall is the more likely winner but notes that Blaydes has cardio and wrestling that could cause problems if the fight goes into later rounds. Paul mentions that he faded Blaydes before but is willing to take a chance at plus 421, as heavyweights are unpredictable.

"I took the plus 421 cuz I'm like I'm not going to get a better number than that... top of the food chain or bottom of the food chain heavyweights if you give me like plus 400 pretty …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall by TKO in the first round. He believes Aspinall is better in every way—faster, more powerful, and with better grappling. He dismisses the first fight due to Aspinall's injury and notes that Blaydes didn't land a clean punch. The Guru points to Aspinall's quick submission of Sergei Pavlovich and his ability to finish fights. He also mentions that Jon Jones tossed Blaydes around, suggesting Aspinall can do the same. He expects Aspinall to land a one-two and finish on the feet.

TKO in round 1
"I'm going to go with Tom aspel purely because he's the better fighter and he wins this fight 9 times out of 10"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Paddy Pimblett

Paddy Pimblett W

23-4
Technical Submission (triangle choke) R1 3:22
Fight 3 VS Lightweight Completed

Paddy Pimblett

Moneyline
BetWay -110
KO/TKO
FanDuel +550
Submission
BetRivers +460
Decision
BetWay +275

King Green

Moneyline
DraftKings +150
KO/TKO
BetWay +500
Submission
FanDuel +2800
Decision
FanDuel +220
Fighter Stats

Paddy Pimblett

Age31
Height5' 10"
Reach73.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

King Green

Age39
Height5' 10"
Reach71.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Paddy Pimblett

5.49SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
3.89SApM
42.0%Str. Def.
0.69TD Avg
21.0%TD Acc.
44.0%TD Def.
1.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - King Green

6.38SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
3.58SApM
62.0%Str. Def.
1.31TD Avg
42.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo picks King Green (Bobby Green) as the better striker with good takedown defense. He notes that Green's volume and defense are excellent, but he only bets half a unit because Green is fighting in enemy territory, could face a sketchy decision, and if taken down by Pimblett, he may not get back up. Angelo acknowledges Pimblett's grappling control but believes Green's striking will be the difference.

half unit bet on King Green
"I still think Bobby's going to win this fight I think he's going to be the better Striker and I think his takedown defense is going to be good enough"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody is confident in King Green, citing his well-rounded skills and veteran savvy. He notes that Paddy Pimblett has looked unimpressive in his UFC fights, often losing rounds before getting finishes, and that his lifestyle and mindset are not conducive to long-term success. Cody believes Green's boxing and takedown defense will be too much, and that Paddy's path to victory is narrow. He predicts Green by decision.

King Green by decision
"Bobby green by decision that seems fairs to me Patty pimin could take a hell of a punch Patty Pimp's not getting submitted I don't think no so Bobby by decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Daniel picks King Green, impressed by his performance against Jim Miller where he overwhelmed a durable opponent. He believes Green's wrestling defense will hold up against Pimblett, and that Green's volume and power will be too much. He notes Pimblett gets hit often and Green can exploit that.

"I like Bobby green here I I had kind of written him off and I'd faded him a couple of times times too just if we're being honest but like that Jim Miller fight was really impressive"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Daniel notes Paddy's early explosiveness but worries about his cardio, citing him pulling guard against Tony Ferguson. He thinks Bobby Green's age (37) and hands-down style could lead to him getting caught early. He leans Paddy but wants underdog odds to bet, expecting a close decision or early finish.

"I'm gonna go Patty here to to squeak one out or to potentially get an early finish"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Jeff picks King Green, citing Green's volume and power. He thinks Pimblett will eventually get caught and knocked out, though he's not sure if it happens this week. He believes Green's wrestling defense is adequate and that Pimblett won't get him down.

"give me King got to go with King here Bobby green he's going to put it on uh piml piml gets hit"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a horrible matchup for Paddy. He highlights Green's takedown defense (only taken down once in last 10 fights) and his advantage on the feet. Paul expects Green to cruise to a decision, though he acknowledges the risk of a bad split decision in the UK. He also mentions the possibility of betting Green by decision at plus money.

King Green by decision
"I think Bobby green should absolutely Cruise here so I'm 100% with you I love Bobby green um I'm prepared for disappointment but yeah him by decision at plus 160."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett by submission (rear-naked choke), likely in the first or second round. He believes Pimblett can exploit Bobby Green's tendency to give up his back when defending takedowns. The Guru notes that Green was easily controlled on the ground by Islam Makhachev and that Pimblett has a size and strength advantage. He also thinks Pimblett will use kicks at range and wait for grappling opportunities, rather than brawling. The Guru is influenced by a recent interview with Pimblett, which increased his confidence.

submission, rear-naked choke, round 1-2
"I'm going to go with Patty piml I reckon he's got this one the stars are aligning for this one I reckon and also he went on my channel and I think there's a gift of the guru …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Gregory Rodrigues

Gregory Rodrigues W

19-6
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 4 VS Middleweight Completed

Gregory Rodrigues

Moneyline
BetRivers +110
KO/TKO
FanDuel +370
Submission
BetRivers +650
Decision
BetWay +500

Christian Leroy Duncan

Moneyline
BetMGM -120
KO/TKO
FanDuel +165
Submission
FanDuel +1800
Decision
FanDuel +480
Fighter Stats

Gregory Rodrigues

Age34
Height6' 3"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Christian Leroy Duncan

Age30
Height6' 2"
Reach79.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Gregory Rodrigues

5.53SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
4.78SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.9TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Christian Leroy Duncan

4.43SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
2.59SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
0.33TD Avg
16.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Angelo picks Christian Leroy Duncan but with very low confidence, calling it a 51% lean. He cites Duncan's sharp striking and hometown advantage, but acknowledges that Gregory Rodrigues is incredibly durable and dangerous. Angelo warns that Duncan can get too comfortable and showboat, potentially getting caught. He describes this as a very tough fight to pick.

"I'm gonna pick clld because of the sharp striking and the hometown Advantage but he could be a landmine"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Cody picks Christian Leroy Duncan, citing his superior striking, footwork, and precision. He notes that Gregory Rodrigues has a suspect chin and has been knocked out multiple times when standing. Cody believes Duncan can knock him out if Rodrigues chooses to brawl, but acknowledges that Rodrigues could win by grappling. However, he thinks Rodrigues is likely to engage in a striking battle, which favors Duncan.

Christian Leroy Duncan by TKO
"I'm going to go Duncan but you know at the end of the day when you look at like which other these underdogs do you not mind you didn't piay KCK them but it's like I I see …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel picks Gregory Rodrigues (RoboCop), impressed by his knockout of Brad Tavares and his takedown ability. He questions Duncan's competition (exhausted Claudio Ribeiro, Dennis Tiuliulin) and notes that Duncan struggled against Armen Petrosyan. He trusts Rodrigues' power and wrestling, and notes Rodrigues has four knockouts in his last five fights.

"I'm going hobocop here for sure"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel acknowledges Christian Leroy Duncan's athleticism and flashy style but thinks Gregory Rodrigues has more paths to victory: decision, submission, or knockout. He notes Rodrigues' power, durability, and Jiu-Jitsu, while Duncan may be 'kill or bust.' He is hesitant due to Rodrigues' defensive flaws and stiff movement.

"I'm going to pick him in the spot but I'm very you know I acknowledge the fact that Leroy Duncan is special"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Jeff picks Christian Leroy Duncan, believing he will knock out Rodrigues. He notes that Rodrigues gets hurt in every fight and Duncan has shown power. He cites Duncan's four-inch reach advantage and thinks Duncan's striking will be the difference.

Christian Leroy Duncan via knockout +150
"I'm taking CD I think he's going to knock him out as well hobocop gets caught a lot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Paul also picks Duncan, noting that the fight ending inside the distance is likely. He points out that Rodrigues' chin has been checked many times and that Duncan has never been finished. Paul believes Duncan will knock out Rodrigues, but he also considers the possibility of Rodrigues using grappling, which could expose Duncan's wrestling. He plans to bet on the fight ending inside the distance.

Fight ends inside the distance
"I think the most likely bet that I may add to some like long parlays and stuff his fight ends inside the distance here that's like minus two that's minus 220."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his grappling edge and KO power. He notes that Rodrigues has better takedowns and can out-grapple Christian Leroy Duncan, who may struggle with grappling defense. The Guru also believes Rodrigues has more punching power and that Duncan hasn't faced someone with that level of power. He references Duncan's fight against Arman Petrosyan, where he was taken down, and suggests Rodrigues can replicate that success.

"I'm going to go with Gregory Rodriguez man I'm gonna pick Gregory Rodriguez I think he's got if there's anyone going to be out grappling the other here it's going to be Rodriguez getting takedowns on Christian Leroy …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Arnold Allen

Arnold Allen W

20-4
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 5 VS Featherweight Completed

Arnold Allen

Moneyline
BetWay -250
KO/TKO
FanDuel +550
Submission
BetRivers +750
Decision
FanDuel +100

Giga Chikadze

Moneyline
FanDuel +235
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
FanDuel +2800
Decision
FanDuel +490
Fighter Stats

Arnold Allen

Age32
Height5' 8"
Reach70.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Giga Chikadze

Age37
Height6' 0"
Reach74.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Arnold Allen

3.47SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
3.04SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
0.86TD Avg
47.0%TD Acc.
71.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Giga Chikadze

3.75SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
3.47SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
0.18TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
65.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Angelo picks Arnold Allen, noting that despite Allen being on a two-fight skid, those losses were to top competition (Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev). He argues that Allen looked better in those losses than Giga did in his win over Alex Caceres, where Giga was slow and threw few combinations. Angelo expects Allen to control the striking rhythm and predicts a decision win, possibly hitting the over on rounds.

over on round line
"I think Arnold controls the Striking Rhythm here I think this could look like when Qatar remember Calvin Qatar or Kar beat Giga Chad a few years ago this could look like that"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Cody picks Arnold Allen, citing his fast starts and wrestling. He notes that Giga Chikadze has not faced many wrestlers and was taken down by Calvin Kattar, who is not known for wrestling. Cody believes Allen can pressure Giga, mix in takedowns, and win a decision. He also points out that Giga is older, injury-prone, and has had long layoffs, while Allen is a step down in competition after fighting Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev.

"I'm gonna go Arnold Allen like honestly this guy was on a very solid run and earned a lot of respect from people... I do expect him to get the victory whether he shows up and shows out …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Daniel picks Arnold Allen, citing his grappling advantage and youth. He believes Allen can out-grapple Chikadze and should avoid kickboxing with the kickboxer. He notes Allen has more gas in the tank despite two straight losses.

"I will take the almighty one"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Daniel likes Arnold Allen's southpaw calf kicks and blitzing style but dislikes the price (-230). He thinks Giga Chikadze has cardio issues and can be drained by takedowns. He expects a close fight likely going the distance and picks Allen to edge it out.

"I'mma go Arie to to Edge it out"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Jeff picks Arnold Allen, noting he can win on the feet as well as by grappling. He praises Allen's body defense (except against Max Holloway) and his volume. He points out Chikadze sometimes takes long to get going and lacks volume, which Allen can exploit. He expects the line to be closer but still takes Allen.

"I like Arnold Allen in this one too I I think you know like to your point I think he could grapple in this maybe uh but I actually think he could win this fight on the feed …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Paul leans towards Giga Chikadze as a dog, citing the value at plus 205. He believes if the fight stays on the feet, it will be competitive and Giga has the striking advantage. Paul acknowledges the risks of jet lag and the UK crowd but thinks the line is too wide. He expects a competitive fight and is willing to take the dog.

"I think at plus 205 the value will be squarely on Giga... I'll take the dog in that type of situation."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

The MMA Guru picks Arnold Allen, believing he can use his offensive grappling to exploit Giga Chikadze's takedown defense. He notes that Chikadze has been exposed on the ground every time he's been taken down. The Guru also thinks Allen is close to Max Holloway's level, as shown in their fight, and that Chikadze's win over Alex Caceres was unimpressive. He predicts Allen will win by decision, possibly 29-28, using grappling in the later rounds.

decision
"I think Arnold Allen's got this one in the bag I don't see jetti troubling him with punches kicks to the body maybe a problem but I think that's going to open up some potential takedowns for Arnold …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Nathaniel Wood

Nathaniel Wood W

23-6
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 6 VS Featherweight Completed

Nathaniel Wood

Moneyline
FanDuel -400
KO/TKO
BetRivers +210
Submission
BetRivers +325
Decision
FanDuel +260

Daniel Pineda

Moneyline
Caesars +380
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1100
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
BetRivers +1200
Fighter Stats

Nathaniel Wood

Age33
Height5' 6"
Reach69.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Daniel Pineda

Age40
Height5' 7"
Reach69.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Nathaniel Wood

5.64SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
4.25SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
1.35TD Avg
48.0%TD Acc.
73.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Daniel Pineda

2.85SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.26SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
1.42TD Avg
24.0%TD Acc.
54.0%TD Def.
1.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood as the biggest favorite on the card, citing Wood's superior striking, grappling, and durability. He notes that Daniel Pineda is dangerous early but fades quickly, and Wood only needs to survive the first few minutes. Angelo believes Wood is better everywhere and is safe to parlay.

"Nathaniel is the pick and probably safe to Parlay"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his technical striking, cardio, and improving wrestling. He notes that Daniel Pineda is a dangerous first-round fighter but fades quickly, and that Wood can survive the early onslaught and take over in later rounds. Cody believes Wood can win by decision or late finish, and suggests waiting for a better live price after the first round.

"I think Nathaniel would maybe either buy either it's going to be a decision or I do again see him maybe finishing off finishing off pan late in the third round could be by TKO could be by …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel thinks Nathaniel Wood is better everywhere but has a questionable chin. He notes Daniel Pineda is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with all wins by finish, but 0-6 in decisions. He expects Wood to weather an early storm and win a decision if he survives.

"I think Nathaniel wood probably wins the decision here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul agrees with Cody, expecting Wood to win. He notes that Pineda's best chance is early, and he might sprinkle on Pineda by submission in round one at long odds. However, he believes Wood's volume and cardio will be too much as the fight goes on.

Daniel Pineda by submission in round 1 (small sprinkle)
"I'll probably throw a small little sprink because I'm a I'm a sick degenerate Cody I'll probably have like a small little sprinkle on P round one at plus 1,000."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood, calling Daniel Pineda 'trash' and a former PED user. He believes Wood is levels above Pineda in skill, especially on the feet, and will win the low kick battle, which is key to Pineda's game. Wood's recent grappling win over Alex Caceres shows his well-roundedness. The Guru sympathizes with Wood's bad luck in past fights and expects him to win decisively.

"I'm going to go with Nathaniel wood I think Daniel Pan's trash former ped CH well always a ped CH but um got caught on Peds when he came to the UFC"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Bruna Brasil

Bruna Brasil W

11-7-1
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 7 VS Women's Strawweight Completed

Bruna Brasil

Moneyline
Caesars +280
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1600
Submission
DraftKings +1100
Decision
BetMGM +550

Molly McCann

Moneyline
FanDuel -335
KO/TKO
BetRivers +250
Submission
FanDuel +700
Decision
FanDuel +165
Fighter Stats

Bruna Brasil

Age32
Height5' 6"
Reach65.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Molly McCann

Age36
Height5' 4"
Reach62.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Bruna Brasil

2.56SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
3.75SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
1.23TD Avg
52.0%TD Acc.
57.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Molly McCann

5.28SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
4.65SApM
62.0%Str. Def.
1.78TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
38.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Angelo picks Molly McCann despite originally leaning toward Bruna Brasil. He explains that Bruna has the tools but is too low volume and doesn't pull the trigger, while Molly's forward pressure, output, and crowd energy will be decisive. He acknowledges that Bruna has power and could win, but believes Molly's aggression will earn a close decision.

"I think the forward pressure the output the crowd I think all of that is just going to work in Molly's favor"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Cody picks Molly McCann, citing her motivation after dropping to strawweight and her improved performance in her last fight. He notes that Bruna Brasil has shown poor grappling defense and was taken down easily by Denise Gomes and Loma Lookboonmee. Cody believes McCann's size, strength, and pressure will be too much, and she can win by decision or late finish.

"I think Molly wins based on like the style and the skill level it just really depends on her and like where her motivation level is at."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Daniel believes Molly McCann will bully Bruna Brasil with pressure, takedowns, and ground control. He notes Bruna's poor chin and lack of heart, while Molly is the more physical fighter. He predicts a dominant win by submission, TKO, or decision.

"I think Molly mcc's going to win this fight but just being meaner just wanting it a little bit more"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Paul also picks McCann, noting that Bruna Brasil hasn't shown any reason to believe she can compete at this level. He points out that McCann's grappling and pressure will be key, and that the hometown crowd will support her. Paul expects McCann to win, possibly by decision.

"I think Molly wins based on like the style and the skill level it just really depends on her and like where her motivation level is at."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Molly McCann

The MMA Guru picks Molly McCann, citing her physicality advantage at strawweight and her finishing ability. He notes that McCann has KO power and a spinning elbow KO, which is rare for women's MMA. He believes Bruna Brasil is not a grappler and may struggle on the back foot. The Guru expects McCann to pressure and eventually get a TKO later in the fight, though he admits it's a tricky matchup.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Molly mccan over Bruno Brazil am I am I gonna go with Molly mccan over Brun I think I am I think Molly mcan's like a tough [ __ ] to be honest …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

JA

Jake Hadley W

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 8 VS Catchweight (137 lb) Completed

Jake Hadley

Moneyline
Caesars +205
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1600
Submission
FanDuel +700
Decision
FanDuel +430

Caolán Loughran

Moneyline
BetWay -225
KO/TKO
BetRivers +480
Submission
FanDuel +1700
Decision
BetRivers -103
Fighter Stats

Jake Hadley

Age29
Height5' 7"
Reach70.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Caolán Loughran

Age30
Height5' 6"
Reach68"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Jake Hadley

3.8SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
4.16SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
0.33TD Avg
11.0%TD Acc.
54.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Caolán Loughran

4.73SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
5.2SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
3.0TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
87.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Caolán Loughran

Angelo picks Caolán Loughran due to the size advantage, as Jake Hadley is moving up on short notice. He notes that Loughran will use his size to bully Hadley against the cage and slow the pace. Angelo acknowledges that Hadley is the better technical striker but believes the weight difference and Loughran's pressure will be decisive. He also mentions a potential plus 3.5 round bet on Hadley.

considering plus 3.5 round bet on Hadley
"I'm going to pick Callen here because of the size difference and I think he's just going to move forward slow the pace and Bully Jake a little bit"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caolán Loughran

Cody picks Caolán Loughran, citing his physicality, pressure, and durability. He notes that Jake Hadley has looked defeated in recent fights, has poor cardio, and is moving up on short notice. Cody believes Loughran's constant forward pressure and takedowns will overwhelm Hadley, who has shown no ability to overcome adversity.

"My money is going to be on the Irishman."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Caolán Loughran

Daniel picks Caolán Loughran, citing his physical strength and the fact that Hadley is moving up a weight class on short notice. He notes Hadley has been inconsistent and struggled in his last two fights, and doesn't think he'll fare better against a stronger opponent.

"I like Cal Lin here uh both being just like so freaking physically strong a guy in short notice coming up a weight class"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caolán Loughran

Daniel thinks Caolán Loughran is the more physical fighter who can bully Jake Hadley with takedowns and top control. He notes Hadley's takedown defense issues and Loughran's durability, though Loughran is hittable. He picks Loughran to win by grinding out a decision.

"I just kind of see kin being the more physical kind of the bully in there and for that reason I'm gonna pick him to win"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caolán Loughran

Paul also picks Loughran, noting that Hadley's pace is unsustainable and that Loughran's volume (140 significant strikes in his last fight) will be too much. He believes Hadley will get outmuscled and that Loughran's wrestling and pressure will secure the win.

"lockerman for me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Caolán Loughran

The MMA Guru picks Caolán Loughran, calling Jake Hadley's decision to take this fight on short notice 'awful.' He believes Loughran will have a significant size and strength advantage, being a natural bantamweight, while Hadley is a small flyweight. The Guru notes that Hadley has been 'wet blanketed' by larger grapplers before and expects Loughran to dominate with his grappling. He thinks Hadley's submission skills won't be enough to overcome the weight difference.

"I'm going to have to go with Callin locker and I think he's stronger better grappling um maybe not better technical grappling I just think he's going to have like 10 pounds of muscle on Jake Hadley here"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

MU

Muhammad Mokaev W

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 9 VS Flyweight Completed

Muhammad Mokaev

Moneyline
BetRivers -200
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1300
Submission
BetWay +400
Decision
FanDuel +130

Manel Kape

Moneyline
Caesars +180
KO/TKO
DraftKings +500
Submission
BetRivers +1800
Decision
FanDuel +430
Fighter Stats

Muhammad Mokaev

Age25
Height5' 7"
Reach70.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Manel Kape

Age32
Height5' 5"
Reach68.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Muhammad Mokaev

1.61SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
1.35SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
5.29TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
25.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Manel Kape

5.04SLpM
56.0%Str. Acc.
4.08SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
0.4TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
81.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Muhammad Mokaev

Angelo picks Muhammad Mokaev despite his poor striking performance in his last fight, attributing it to a staph infection. He believes Mokaev's relentless wrestling will be the difference, as Manel Kape may be hesitant to let his hands go due to takedown fear. Angelo notes that Kape is a much better striker but expects Mokaev's pace and wrestling to win out.

"I still think Muhammad Mia is going to win this fight he is the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Muhammad Mokaev

Cody picks Muhammad Mokaev, citing his improving wrestling and grappling. He notes that Mokaev has been getting better at controlling opponents on the ground and that Manel Kape has shown poor takedown defense and cardio. Cody believes Mokaev's constant takedown threats will neutralize Kape's striking and lead to a decision win.

Muhammad Mokaev by decision
"I'll take Makai of Makai of by decision but uh it's a flyweight fight Paul like you know expect the unexpected."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Daniel believes Manel Kape is the more well-rounded fighter with superior striking and experience. He thinks Mokaev's takedowns won't be enough to hold Kape down, and Kape will hurt Mokaev on the feet, potentially finishing him. He predicts a knockout.

wins by KO
"I'm gonna go manell cap to hand Muhammad makv his first ever UFC defeat"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Jeff picks Manel Kape as his dog of the week. He admits he may have faded Mokaev too much in the past, but believes Kape is one of the best flyweights. He thinks what Mokaev showed against Alex Perez is not enough to beat Kape.

"I'm gonna go manil k uh I I've maybe been fading Mohamad MV more than I ought to in the past but like I just don't think what we saw out of him in that Alex Perez fight …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Paul leans towards Manel Kape as a dog, citing the value at plus 130. He believes if the fight stays on the feet, Kape has a clear advantage. However, he acknowledges that Mokaev's wrestling is a major threat and that Kape has been taken down before. Paul calls it a 'dogger pass' situation but is tempted by the line.

"I want to bet Manel cop and that line keeps kind of growing and they're just like begging me to bet him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Manel Kape

The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape by TKO in the second round. He believes Kape is levels above Mokaev on the feet and has better takedown defense, having trained with Dagestani wrestlers. The Guru notes that Mokaev has struggled on the feet against Alex Perez and often needs to clutch wins in the third round. He expects Kape to stuff takedowns and land damaging strikes, possibly cutting Mokaev and finishing him in round two. He also mentions Kape's potential for fouling as a factor in his favor.

TKO in round 2
"I'm going to go with Manel cap I think he's way better on the feet and after watching makv on the feet against Perez he has no idea what he's doing on the feet at times"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Oban Elliott

Oban Elliott W

12-4
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 10 VS Welterweight Completed

Oban Elliott

No odds available.

Preston Parsons

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Oban Elliott

Age28
Height6' 0"
Reach72.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Preston Parsons

Age30
Height5' 11"
Reach71.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Oban Elliott

3.62SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.24SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
1.52TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
52.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Preston Parsons

3.54SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
3.25SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
3.46TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
71.0%TD Def.
2.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Angelo picks Preston Parsons, expecting him to dive for takedowns and either submit or decision Oban Elliott. He notes that Oban is well-rounded but not dangerous, and Parsons has 9 submissions in 11 wins. Angelo acknowledges the fight could be boring but believes Parsons will get the grappling going and win.

"I'm going to go with Preston I think he's diving at legs I think he gets it to the ground probably 50/50 if he subs or decisions"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Cody picks Preston Parsons, citing his relentless pressure, grappling, and power. He notes that Oban Elliott was taken down by Val Woodburn, which is a red flag, and that Parsons has better wrestling and cardio. Cody believes Parsons can grind out a win or even knock Elliott out.

"I gotta go with Preston Parsons uh honestly he's got some legitimate skills guy that shows up every time and he's just a go go go go type guy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel picks Modestas Bukauskas inside the distance as his prop. He notes Bukauskas has good takedowns and back-takes from his Cage Warriors days, and expects him to work his grappling. He thinks there's a real chance of a ground-and-pound finish, and the inside distance line at +240 offers value.

Modestas Bukauskas inside the distance +240; also mentions submission line +1800 as tempting but not official
"I'm gonna take his inside the distance because even if he takes him down a bunch I think there's a real chance he gets a ground and pound finish instead"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Daniel thinks Preston Parsons is more battle-tested and has faced better competition. He notes Oban Elliott is unathletic and boring but tough. He picks Parsons but not confidently, citing potential jet lag and judging issues.

"I'm gonna pick Preston Parsons but not confidently"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Elliott's takedown defense is questionable and that Parsons' wrestling will be the difference. He mentions that Parsons has a clear game plan and that Elliott's love from the betting market is unwarranted.

"I don't really understand the OB and Elliott love to be perfectly honest."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

The MMA Guru picks Preston Parsons, believing he is the better fighter with tougher competition. He notes Parsons' well-rounded game, including grappling and submission attempts, and his impressive win over Matthew Semelsberger. The Guru is less impressed with Oban Elliott's striking, calling it slow, and thinks Parsons will mix things up effectively. He acknowledges Elliott's size and potential but trusts Parsons' experience and skill.

"I just think Preston Parsons is better than him to be honest with you and I think Preston Parsons has fought better competition"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Modestas Bukauskas

Modestas Bukauskas W

19-7
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:12
Fight 11 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Modestas Bukauskas

No odds available.

Marcin Prachnio

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Modestas Bukauskas

Age32
Height6' 3"
Reach78.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Marcin Prachnio

Age37
Height6' 3"
Reach74.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Modestas Bukauskas

3.24SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
4.05SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.26TD Avg
66.0%TD Acc.
79.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Marcin Prachnio

5.52SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
3.15SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.14TD Avg
20.0%TD Acc.
53.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, citing his youth and well-roundedness. He notes that Prachnio has power but is chinny and can be knockout or bust. Angelo expects Bukauskas to win and hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line to bet on.

hoping for over 1.5 rounds line
"mcus should win he's going to be the pick here he's much younger he's more well-rounded"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Cody picks Marcin Prachnio, citing his volume striking and improved cardio. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas has low output and has looked unimpressive in his UFC return, with close fights against lower-level competition. Cody believes Prachnio's pressure and output will overwhelm Bukauskas, and that he can win by decision or even knockout.

"I'm just GNA ride up on prne out here can't make you can't have any real type of Faith but at some point you got to bite the bullet and take some people that your gut tells you …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Daniel thinks Marcin Prachnio has a higher work rate and will outwork Modestas Bukauskas. He notes both have poor chins but Prachnio pushes a higher pace. He picks the underdog Prachnio.

"just give me the guy with the higher work rate and that's uh Marine prel so and he's the underdog so I'll pick him"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Paul leans towards Prachnio, noting that Bukauskas has low volume and no real power. He believes Prachnio's volume advantage (5.61 significant strikes per minute vs 3.28) will be key, and that the fight likely goes to a decision where Prachnio edges it. However, he is not fully confident and may pass on betting.

"I guess Marine will be the pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio as an underdog, citing Prachnio's better technical striking and leg-kicking ability. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas lacks finishing potential and a strong grappling game, often letting fights go to split decisions. Prachnio is known for chewing up opponents' legs, and Bukauskas has a history of leg injuries. The Guru also questions Bukauskas's training camp with heavyweights, suggesting it may not be ideal for this matchup.

"I can't help but pick a Marchin prao Underdog you guys know how I feel about Marchin prao being an underdog which he normally is in every one of his fights um I'm going to pick him to …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Sam Patterson

Sam Patterson W

14-3-1
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 2:50
Fight 12 VS Welterweight Completed

Sam Patterson

No odds available.

Kiefer Crosbie

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Sam Patterson

Age30
Height6' 3"
Reach78.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Kiefer Crosbie

Age36
Height5' 11"
Reach70.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Sam Patterson

2.62SLpM
37.0%Str. Acc.
3.06SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.82TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
33.0%TD Def.
1.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Kiefer Crosbie

4.46SLpM
64.0%Str. Acc.
5.8SApM
46.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
40.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Angelo picks Sam Patterson as the better overall fighter, but warns not to bet on him due to his history of getting knocked out. He notes that Patterson should wrestle early to avoid Crosbie's power. Angelo recalls Patterson's previous loss as a big favorite and advises caution.

advises not to bet on Patterson
"Sam Patterson is going to be the pick nobody should be betting on this guy nobody"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Cody picks Sam Patterson, citing his BJJ black belt and submission game. He notes that Kiefer Crosbie is a limited brawler with poor grappling and that Patterson can use his reach and grappling to secure a submission. Cody believes Patterson will navigate the early danger and finish the fight on the ground.

Sam Patterson by submission
"Patterson by submission is how I see this one going down."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Daniel dismisses Kiefer Crosbie as a YouTube boxer and thinks Sam Patterson can win by submission. He warns about Patterson's tall man's defense and knockout risk but believes he can get the fight to the ground and choke Crosbie out.

wins by submission
"I think where he's got his best Avenue the victory is to find a way to get this guy to the map and choke him out shortly after"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Paul also picks Patterson, noting that Crosbie is a short-notice replacement with a poor record. He believes Patterson's grappling and size will be too much, and that he will likely win by submission or TKO. Paul jokes about Patterson's long neck being chokeable but doesn't think Crosbie can capitalize.

"Sam Patterson probably finds a way to get to this to the canvas he's got a huge frame... seems like a cupcake matchup for Sam Patterson."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Sam Patterson, calling it one of his locks of the card. He dismisses Kiefer Crosbie as 'garbage' and not UFC caliber, noting his poor physique and lack of skill. Patterson is described as a legitimate prospect who earned his way to the UFC, with a submission win over Johan Lesto. The Guru believes there is a clear skill difference and expects Patterson to win easily.

"I'm G to go with Sam Patterson here there's just a skill difference between the two of them and I think he's way better than Kea Crosby that's one of my locks of the card as well"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Mick Parkin

Mick Parkin W

10-1
KO (punches) R1 3:23
Fight 13 VS Heavyweight Completed

Mick Parkin

No odds available.

Łukasz Brzeski

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Mick Parkin

Age30
Height6' 4"
Reach79.0"
Weight265 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Łukasz Brzeski

Age34
Height6' 3"
Reach78"
Weight236 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Mick Parkin

4.7SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
4.13SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
1.38TD Avg
46.0%TD Acc.
50.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Łukasz Brzeski

4.9SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
3.65SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.41TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
35.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Angelo picks Mick Parkin as one of the most confident picks on the card, noting that Parkin is better everywhere and will control the pace. He expects Parkin's odds to balloon to -400 by fight night. Angelo admits the fight will be boring but is confident in Parkin's win.

"Mick Parkin one of the most confident picks on the card this fight's going to suck though"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Cody picks Mick Parkin, citing his youth, cardio, and improving wrestling. He notes that Łukasz Brzeski has poor grappling and has been taken down repeatedly. Cody believes Parkin can use his wrestling to control the fight and win by decision, possibly with a late submission.

"Give me Mick parin again probably by decision but who knows man maybe you see a new wrinkle to his game and he submits brusi late in the fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Daniel thinks Mick Parkin is technical and well-rounded, while Łukasz Brzeski has been fed to prospects and lost. He expects Parkin to outwork Brzeski.

"I'm gonna go with Mick Park and that come out here here and uh outwork him like all these other guys have"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Paul also picks Parkin, noting that Brzeski's takedown defense is nonexistent and that Parkin can use his size and wrestling to grind out a win. He mentions that Parkin trains with Tom Aspinall and has a significant weight advantage. Paul expects Parkin to win, possibly by decision.

"Parkin will have like a at least a 30 pound on fighting I probably like a 40 pound advantage over breski... make it ugly."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The MMA Guru picks Mick Parkin, expecting him to chew up Łukasz Brzeski's legs and mix in grappling when needed. He praises Parkin's underrated grappling and notes that Brzeski has had poor performances. The Guru believes Parkin is better than fighters like Karl Williams, who easily beat Brzeski. Training with Tom Aspinall is seen as a plus for Parkin's improvement. He predicts Parkin will win, possibly by decision or TKO.

"Michael Parkin is going to beat up on Lucas berski chew up his legs mix in the grappling when he needs to as well because his grappling is really underrated"
Fight Notes

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Shauna Bannon

Shauna Bannon W

7-2
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 14 VS Women's Strawweight Completed

Shauna Bannon

No odds available.

Alice Ardelean

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Shauna Bannon

Age32
Height5' 5"
Reach65.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Alice Ardelean

Age34
Height5' 3"
Reach62.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Shauna Bannon

4.32SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.75SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
40.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Alice Ardelean

7.35SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
5.2SApM
62.0%Str. Def.
1.0TD Avg
44.0%TD Acc.
85.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alice Ardelean

Angelo picks Alice Ardelean, citing her forward pressure, toughness, and willingness to fight. He notes that Shauna Bannon forces things and doesn't flow smoothly, while Ardelean is a busy striker who chases finishes. Angelo expects a sloppy back-and-forth fight that goes to a decision, and he plans to bet on Ardelean plus 3.5 if she is the underdog.

planning to bet on Ardelean plus 3.5 if she is underdog
"Alice is going to be the pick I think her forward pressure is going to be incredible She's Not Afraid of Anything"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Shauna Bannon

Cody hesitantly picks Shauna Bannon, citing her grappling as the key. He notes that Alice Ardelean is an influencer with limited fighting skills and that Bannon's takedowns and top control should be enough. However, he acknowledges that Bannon looked lost in her UFC debut and that the line is too high. He expects a close, ugly fight.

"I'm goingon to take Shan O banon and at minus 220 it's atrocious notus 220 minus 160."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shauna Bannon

Daniel picks Shauna Bannon as his lock, noting it's a good matchup for her against a questionable opponent making her UFC debut on short notice.

"I'll take the short notice piece as well and take Shan shaa Bannon surprising I'm taking her as a lock"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alice Ardelean

Daniel admits he didn't know Alice Ardelean was a fighter and notes she has more experience against UFC-level competition, though she lost. He thinks Shauna Bannon is green. He picks Ardelean but warns not to tail him because he is unsure.

"I don't know let's go with Elise let's go with Elise here let's see if she's actually a real fighter don't tail me on that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Shauna Bannon

Paul leans towards Bannon, noting that Ardelean is a TikTok star with no real MMA credentials. He believes Bannon's grappling should be enough, but he is not confident due to Bannon's poor performance in her debut. Paul calls it a 'dogger pass' fight and may not bet it.

"I will be honest with you Cody I haven't looked in to Alice ardan she's N9 and five you don't know her for real... Bannon at with a minus next to her name is uh is pretty scary."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Shauna Bannon

The MMA Guru picks Shauna Bannon despite calling her 'garbage' initially. He reasons that her full training camp is a significant advantage over Alice Ardelean, who stepped in on short notice and hasn't fought in a year. He notes Ardelean's only win came against an 0-3 opponent, though it was impressive. The Guru expects Bannon to win by decision, but acknowledges the unpredictability of women's MMA.

decision
"I'm going to go with Shauna Bannon and I think the uh full camp for her is really going to be the Difference Maker between the two of them"
Fight Notes

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