UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira Next Fight
Age 30
Height 6' 4"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 5' 10"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Joseph Holmes
2.88 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
3.08 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.49 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Alen Amedovski
0.99 SLpM
30.0% Str. Acc.
3.85 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Joseph Holmes
Moneyline
Caesars -200
KO/TKO
FanDuel +310
Submission
FanDuel +220
Decision
FanDuel +500
Alen Amedovski
Moneyline
BetWay +175
KO/TKO
FanDuel +380
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
BetRivers +600
Joseph Holmes - Fight History
KO/TKO R2 3:21 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cláudio Ribeiro

Connor picks Ribeiro as well, noting that Holmes has never shown the ability to confidently pressure like Abdul Razak Alhassan did to beat Ribeiro. He sees Ribeiro's athleticism as the difference, though both are one-dimensional.

Holmes opened +177, now +150; Ribeiro opened -200, now -168.
"I'll take Ribeiro too, but I could easily see this going either way."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cláudio Ribeiro

Zane picks Ribeiro because of his athleticism and power, which often win at middleweight. He notes Holmes is awkward and limited, and Ribeiro's speed and strength should be enough. However, he acknowledges Holmes could win if he gets to body locks and tires Ribeiro.

Holmes opened +177, now +150; Ribeiro opened -200, now -168.
"I am going to pick Ribeiro because it's middleweight. Where middleweight is sort of the starting the dividing line where it becomes important to be that guy."
LOSS vs JunYong Park
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:04 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
JunYong Park 0 20 of 40 50% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:39
Joseph Holmes 0 18 of 33 54% 48 of 76 2 of 4 50% 2 0 4:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 JunYong Park 0 18 of 36 50% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:39
Joseph Holmes 0 12 of 24 50% 22 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:55
2 JunYong Park 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joseph Holmes 0 6 of 9 66% 26 of 40 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
JunYong Park 20 of 40 50% 8 of 24 5 of 7 7 of 9 19 of 37 0 of 1 1 of 2
Joseph Holmes 18 of 33 54% 13 of 26 0 of 0 5 of 7 14 of 28 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 JunYong Park 18 of 36 50% 7 of 21 5 of 7 6 of 8 17 of 33 0 of 1 1 of 2
Joseph Holmes 12 of 24 50% 8 of 19 0 of 0 4 of 5 12 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 JunYong Park 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joseph Holmes 6 of 9 66% 5 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 5
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
JunYong Park

Big Brady picks JunYong Park to win by decision. He notes that Park has fought much better competition and has superior cardio and striking volume. He acknowledges Holmes' height and reach advantage but believes Park can mix in takedowns and win minutes against the cage. Brady points out that Holmes has never been finished but expects Park to grind out a decision.

Park wins by decision
"give me a Jen Young Park to win I'll say wins by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
JunYong Park

Cody picks Jun Yong Park, noting his durability and forward pressure. He acknowledges Park's poor ring IQ (getting caught by Gregory Rodrigues) but believes Park will break Holmes down over time. Cody is concerned about Holmes' grappling if Park ends up on his back, but expects Park to win a decision.

"I just think Johnny and park will eventually Break On Through break the guy down take his best shots wear on him Tire him out maybe even get a few takedowns of his own"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
JunYong Park

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Park as a clear favorite. He notes that Holmes is extremely raw and tentative, while Park is a busy, well-rounded fighter who can jab, take down, and grind. Connor mentions the size difference but believes Park's technical edge and pressure will be too much for Holmes.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"Yeah, it's very favorable looking for him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
JunYong Park

Daniel Levi picks JunYong Park, citing his experience and veteran savvy. He acknowledges Holmes' physical advantages (height, reach) and improvement, but trusts Park's experience against tough competition. He notes Park has been rocked before, so an upset is possible, but leans with the experienced fighter.

"I'm gonna go with John Young park with the kind of Veteran Savvy the tactics."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
JunYong Park

Jacob picks Park as the safer pick, expecting him to be the cleaner striker and defend takedowns. However, he is hesitant because Park lacks danger and Holmes has dangerous jiu-jitsu. He calls the -230 odds insane and suggests Holmes is the value underdog.

inside the distance decision no action for Holmes; Holmes value underdog
"my official pick is Park but I think Holmes is the much more dangerous guy and the minus 230 odds are insane"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
JunYong Park

Park has excellent pace, pressure, and grappling. He gassed against Gregory Rodrigues only because he threw everything at him. Holmes relies on physical attributes but lacks the skill to handle Park's pressure. Park should finish Holmes in the second or third round. The fight doesn't go to decision prop at +120 is a good alternative.

Fight doesn't go to decision +120
"I feel very damn good about John Young Park here I think we're getting a very good price tag on him as well and I think he cruises in this matchup until he eventually gets that finish later on probably …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
JunYong Park

Paul leans toward Park but is not betting due to the -220 price. He notes Holmes' reach advantage and decent grappling, but is unimpressed with Holmes' stand-up. Paul says the market price seems about right and he will pick Park to win but stay away from betting.

"I like Park as well but you know the market tells me it's buying this 220 for Park to win this fight which seems about right"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
JunYong Park

The MMA Guru picks JunYong Park over Joseph Holmes, questioning Holmes' gas tank and the quality of his wins. He notes Holmes' win over Alan Amadovsky is not impressive as everyone finishes him early. He praises Park's performances against Eric Anders and Gregory Rodriguez, and believes Park can survive Holmes' early explosiveness and then take over, predicting a third-round TKO.

"I'm gonna go with Park Hyun young here over Joseph Holmes"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
JunYong Park

Zane picks Park confidently, describing him as 'really quite good everywhere' with solid footwork, a good jab, takedowns, and brutal top control. He notes that Holmes is extremely raw, awkward, and uncoordinated, with only a puncher's chance. Zane acknowledges the size advantage Holmes has but believes Park's technical skills and pace will overwhelm him.

Holmes opened +195 now +193, Park opened -230 now -240.
"It should just be a walk for John Park, basically."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:04 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joseph Holmes 1 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:21
Alen Amedovski 0 1 of 8 12% 1 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joseph Holmes 1 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:21
Alen Amedovski 0 1 of 8 12% 1 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joseph Holmes 16 of 23 69% 11 of 17 2 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 8
Alen Amedovski 1 of 8 12% 1 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joseph Holmes 16 of 23 69% 11 of 17 2 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 8
Alen Amedovski 1 of 8 12% 1 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Angelo picks Joseph Holmes because of his size, versatility, and ability to mix striking and grappling. He notes that Amedovski has been on a long layoff and has shown holes in his grappling. Holmes's length and takedown threat should open up his hands. Angelo will likely stay away from betting but trusts Holmes to get the win.

"i like joseph holmes here i love his size i love his versatility he can strike and he can grapple"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Big Brady picks Joseph Holmes to win by first-round submission, but calls it a sketchy fight between two low-level fighters. He notes Holmes has a size advantage and a brown belt in BJJ, while Amedovski has poor takedown defense and ground game. However, Amedovski hits hard and could knock Holmes out early. He says laying -200 on Holmes is not ideal.

first round sub
"give me homes to win but yeah laying minus 200 on joseph holmes just not seemed like the best idea in the world holmes holmes first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Cody picks Holmes, citing his size advantage (6'4", 80-inch reach), youth (26), and multiple paths to victory. He notes Amedovski's poor takedown defense, lack of ground game, and three-year layoff. He believes Holmes' length, clinch knees, and improved cardio after a full camp will be too much for Amedovski.

"multiple paths of victory i think for joseph holmes but we need to put a little faith in them right and again at 26 and i think he's still with james krause i think that those improvements are going to …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He mentions Holmes in the context of live betting spots, suggesting Holmes after round one if grappling is heavy, but does not make a clear pick or provide analysis.

"holmes after round one i'd say"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Paul is hesitant but leans Holmes. He notes Amedovski's terrible UFC performances and long layoff, but also acknowledges Holmes' green stand-up and cardio issues. He thinks Holmes' size and grappling should be enough, but is not fully confident.

"i'm really struggling with this one what's what's your take here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

The MMA Guru picks Joseph Holmes but is hesitant. He thinks Holmes has a massive advantage on the feet and will land good shots while Amedovski struggles with takedowns. He trusts Holmes more now that he has octagon experience. He predicts a second-round TKO with a fadeaway hook.

second round TKO
"i'm gonna go joseph holmes"
LOSS vs Jamie Pickett
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Pickett 0 50 of 122 40% 54 of 126 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:02
Joseph Holmes 0 51 of 93 54% 59 of 101 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Pickett 0 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
Joseph Holmes 0 24 of 35 68% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
2 Jamie Pickett 0 23 of 55 41% 24 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Joseph Holmes 0 13 of 27 48% 18 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:08
3 Jamie Pickett 0 17 of 44 38% 18 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:20
Joseph Holmes 0 14 of 31 45% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Pickett 50 of 122 40% 22 of 86 19 of 24 9 of 12 40 of 108 10 of 14 0 of 0
Joseph Holmes 51 of 93 54% 30 of 65 13 of 19 8 of 9 41 of 82 10 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Pickett 10 of 23 43% 4 of 15 3 of 3 3 of 5 9 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joseph Holmes 24 of 35 68% 13 of 21 7 of 9 4 of 5 17 of 28 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Jamie Pickett 23 of 55 41% 12 of 42 9 of 10 2 of 3 18 of 50 5 of 5 0 of 0
Joseph Holmes 13 of 27 48% 9 of 22 1 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jamie Pickett 17 of 44 38% 6 of 29 7 of 11 4 of 4 13 of 36 4 of 8 0 of 0
Joseph Holmes 14 of 31 45% 8 of 22 5 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Angelo leans toward Pickett due to UFC experience, but worries about Holmes' equal size and grappling threat. He notes Pickett's reach advantage is neutralized and that both can be gun-shy. He calls it a razor-thin pick and says he won't bet on it.

Not throwing any money at this fight; too close to call.
"i am leaning towards pickett because of the experience but i do worry that joseph holmes is a genuine athlete"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Big Brady thinks the odds are off, as Joseph Holmes is inexperienced and has fought low-level competition, while Jamie Pickett has faced UFC-caliber fighters. He calls it a coin flip and says he would not bet it, but if forced to pick, he takes Pickett as a dog by decision. He notes both fighters have similar skill sets and low volume.

"i'm going to pick jamie pickett i'm going to pick him by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Cody leans toward Holmes, citing his length and reach advantage. He notes Holmes's camp (James Krause) will have a good game plan. He expects Holmes to use his range striking and avoid grappling. However, he admits Holmes looked green and the fight could go either way.

"i would say holmes fight probably over one and a half over two and a half figures of distance"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Daniel Levi leans toward Joseph Holmes, citing his physical advantages (6'4", 80-inch reach) and finishing ability (submission and KO). He notes that Pickett has folded under pressure in the past, losing by first-round finishes to Charles Byrd and Jordan Wright. Levi is hesitant because Holmes hasn't been tested at UFC level, but he believes Holmes will outwork Pickett in a close fight. He also mentions Pickett's mental struggles and that he's seeing a therapist.

"i'm going to go with joseph holmes here man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

The host leans toward Joseph Holmes, expecting him to dictate the pace with clinch work and takedowns against the cage. He notes Pickett's durability but thinks Holmes' aggression and control will win rounds. The host is not confident in a finish, predicting a decision. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a possible bet due to both fighters' low finishing rates.

Over 1.5 rounds at -185 mentioned as a possible bet.
"i'm gonna be going joseph holmes and i'm actually gonna take him to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Paul leans toward Pickett as an underdog, citing his experience and durability. He notes Holmes is very green and his striking is telegraphed. He expects Pickett's strength in the clinch to be a factor. However, he acknowledges Holmes's length and potential if he keeps the fight at range.

"i'm leaning towards pickett here as an underdog uh plus 120 is the price to pay just more way more experience"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

The MMA Guru picks Joseph Holmes to win by first-round TKO. He highlights Holmes' Muay Thai background, range, power, and accuracy on the feet, and notes that Holmes already beat Pickett on the regional scene by first-round destruction. He doesn't see Pickett's grappling as a threat, as Holmes is rangier and better at controlling distance. He expects Holmes to land a clean shot early and finish the fight quickly, similar to how Jordan Wright did.

"i'm gonna trust in joseph holmes to beat jamie picker here"
Alen Amedovski - Fight History
LOSS vs Joe Pyfer
TKO (punches) R1 3:55 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joe Pyfer 1 14 of 45 31% 14 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alen Amedovski 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joe Pyfer 1 14 of 45 31% 14 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alen Amedovski 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joe Pyfer 14 of 45 31% 12 of 42 1 of 2 1 of 1 13 of 44 0 of 0 1 of 1
Alen Amedovski 11 of 30 36% 4 of 19 2 of 4 5 of 7 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joe Pyfer 14 of 45 31% 12 of 42 1 of 2 1 of 1 13 of 44 0 of 0 1 of 1
Alen Amedovski 11 of 30 36% 4 of 19 2 of 4 5 of 7 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Angelo picks Pyfer, praising his power, pressure, and wrestling. He notes that Amedovski is a knockout-or-bust fighter who has lost three in a row and looked disinterested. Angelo believes Pyfer can win by knockout or submission and is safe for parlays.

Safe for parlays.
"i love joe in this matchup punch for punch he should be the heavier hitting striker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Big Brady is very confident in Joe Pyfer to win by first-round submission. He notes that Pyfer is well-rounded with good wrestling, grappling, and power, while Amedovski has looked horrible in the UFC with a 0% takedown defense. Brady expects Pyfer to take the easiest path: take down Amedovski, beat him up, and submit him. He also mentions that Amedovski's only threat is landing a big shot in the first 60 seconds, but Pyfer should have him covered everywhere.

first round submission
"it's going to be joseph heifer to win joseph pifer to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Cody thinks Pyfer has Amedovski beat everywhere: striking, wrestling, and ground game. He notes Amedovski's poor takedown defense and chin issues. Cody calls Pyfer a top ticket play and a good parlay piece, though he acknowledges the price is steep.

"i think piper's got him beat all over and piffer's definitely a top ticket or top two ticket play this week"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Daniel Levi picks Joe Pyfer to win but refuses to bet at minus 425. He thinks Pyfer is overrated, with low volume and a susceptibility to being taken down, as seen in his contender series fight. He expects Pyfer to win due to Amedovski's poor UFC performances, but views Pyfer as a -400 type and plans to fade him in future fights against better competition.

"I'm gonna pick joe pie for to win this fight but you ain't gonna catch me dead laying no minus 425 on on a guy like that"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Jacob is very confident in Pyfer, noting that Amedovski looked like he didn't want to be there in his last fight. He believes Pyfer is hungry and can finish early. Jacob wanted to bet under 1.5 rounds but the odds moved. He thinks Pyfer can win by knockout or submission.

Wanted to bet under 1.5 rounds at -115.
"i would be very very surprised if allen wins this matchup"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Amedovski has shown terrible fight IQ and durability, getting knocked out quickly by John Phillips and submitted by Joseph Holmes. Pyfer is bigger, faster, and more skilled everywhere. Pyfer should take this to the ground and submit him or knock him out early. The under 1.5 rounds is a strong play. I took a sprinkle on Pyfer by submission at +550 but he may look for the knockout instead.

Pyfer by submission at +550 (sprinkle), under 1.5 rounds at -200
"I think Piper gets him down early or just knocks him out early there's a reason the under one and a half is currently hanging around minus 200"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Paul calls Amedovski the worst fighter on the roster and says Pyfer should roll. He notes Pyfer's well-rounded skills and that Amedovski has been finished by lower-level opponents. Paul says he wouldn't bat an eye at people parlaying Pyfer.

"don't let friends bet on alan amadovsky like do not the worst guy on the roster"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer by KO in the first round. He views Alen Amedovski as a fighter paid to lose, noting he was easily submitted by Joseph Holmes and KO'd by John Phillips. He thinks Amedovski is small for the division, out of shape, and 34 years old. He believes Pyfer's power, reach advantage, youth, and momentum will lead to a first-round knockout.

first round KO
"i think we're gonna see him sleep allen amidovsky in the first round"
LOSS vs Joseph Holmes
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:04 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joseph Holmes 1 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:21
Alen Amedovski 0 1 of 8 12% 1 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joseph Holmes 1 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:21
Alen Amedovski 0 1 of 8 12% 1 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joseph Holmes 16 of 23 69% 11 of 17 2 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 8
Alen Amedovski 1 of 8 12% 1 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joseph Holmes 16 of 23 69% 11 of 17 2 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 8
Alen Amedovski 1 of 8 12% 1 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Angelo picks Joseph Holmes because of his size, versatility, and ability to mix striking and grappling. He notes that Amedovski has been on a long layoff and has shown holes in his grappling. Holmes's length and takedown threat should open up his hands. Angelo will likely stay away from betting but trusts Holmes to get the win.

"i like joseph holmes here i love his size i love his versatility he can strike and he can grapple"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Big Brady picks Joseph Holmes to win by first-round submission, but calls it a sketchy fight between two low-level fighters. He notes Holmes has a size advantage and a brown belt in BJJ, while Amedovski has poor takedown defense and ground game. However, Amedovski hits hard and could knock Holmes out early. He says laying -200 on Holmes is not ideal.

first round sub
"give me homes to win but yeah laying minus 200 on joseph holmes just not seemed like the best idea in the world holmes holmes first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Cody picks Holmes, citing his size advantage (6'4", 80-inch reach), youth (26), and multiple paths to victory. He notes Amedovski's poor takedown defense, lack of ground game, and three-year layoff. He believes Holmes' length, clinch knees, and improved cardio after a full camp will be too much for Amedovski.

"multiple paths of victory i think for joseph holmes but we need to put a little faith in them right and again at 26 and i think he's still with james krause i think that those improvements are going to …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He mentions Holmes in the context of live betting spots, suggesting Holmes after round one if grappling is heavy, but does not make a clear pick or provide analysis.

"holmes after round one i'd say"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Paul is hesitant but leans Holmes. He notes Amedovski's terrible UFC performances and long layoff, but also acknowledges Holmes' green stand-up and cardio issues. He thinks Holmes' size and grappling should be enough, but is not fully confident.

"i'm really struggling with this one what's what's your take here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

The MMA Guru picks Joseph Holmes but is hesitant. He thinks Holmes has a massive advantage on the feet and will land good shots while Amedovski struggles with takedowns. He trusts Holmes more now that he has octagon experience. He predicts a second-round TKO with a fadeaway hook.

second round TKO
"i'm gonna go joseph holmes"
LOSS vs John Phillips
KO (punches) R1 0:17 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Sep 28, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
John Phillips 0 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alen Amedovski 1 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 John Phillips 0 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alen Amedovski 1 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
John Phillips 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alen Amedovski 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 John Phillips 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alen Amedovski 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2
LOSS vs Krzysztof Jotko
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Apr 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Krzysztof Jotko 0 43 of 69 62% 111 of 149 4 of 4 100% 0 0 9:37
Alen Amedovski 0 6 of 17 35% 6 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Krzysztof Jotko 0 12 of 20 60% 16 of 24 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:25
Alen Amedovski 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
2 Krzysztof Jotko 0 17 of 32 53% 45 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:38
Alen Amedovski 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Krzysztof Jotko 0 14 of 17 82% 50 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:34
Alen Amedovski 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Krzysztof Jotko 43 of 69 62% 37 of 56 4 of 10 2 of 3 8 of 25 0 of 0 35 of 44
Alen Amedovski 6 of 17 35% 6 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Krzysztof Jotko 12 of 20 60% 9 of 13 1 of 5 2 of 2 6 of 14 0 of 0 6 of 6
Alen Amedovski 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 5
2 Krzysztof Jotko 17 of 32 53% 17 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 26
Alen Amedovski 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Krzysztof Jotko 14 of 17 82% 11 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 12
Alen Amedovski 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Angelo picks Joseph Holmes because of his size, versatility, and ability to mix striking and grappling. He notes that Amedovski has been on a long layoff and has shown holes in his grappling. Holmes's length and takedown threat should open up his hands. Angelo will likely stay away from betting but trusts Holmes to get the win.

"i like joseph holmes here i love his size i love his versatility he can strike and he can grapple"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Big Brady picks Joseph Holmes to win by first-round submission, but calls it a sketchy fight between two low-level fighters. He notes Holmes has a size advantage and a brown belt in BJJ, while Amedovski has poor takedown defense and ground game. However, Amedovski hits hard and could knock Holmes out early. He says laying -200 on Holmes is not ideal.

first round sub
"give me homes to win but yeah laying minus 200 on joseph holmes just not seemed like the best idea in the world holmes holmes first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Cody picks Holmes, citing his size advantage (6'4", 80-inch reach), youth (26), and multiple paths to victory. He notes Amedovski's poor takedown defense, lack of ground game, and three-year layoff. He believes Holmes' length, clinch knees, and improved cardio after a full camp will be too much for Amedovski.

"multiple paths of victory i think for joseph holmes but we need to put a little faith in them right and again at 26 and i think he's still with james krause i think that those improvements are going to eventually materialize and alemandovsky is a good opponent to test …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)
No clear pick

The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He mentions Holmes in the context of live betting spots, suggesting Holmes after round one if grappling is heavy, but does not make a clear pick or provide analysis.

"holmes after round one i'd say"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

Paul is hesitant but leans Holmes. He notes Amedovski's terrible UFC performances and long layoff, but also acknowledges Holmes' green stand-up and cardio issues. He thinks Holmes' size and grappling should be enough, but is not fully confident.

"i'm really struggling with this one what's what's your take here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joseph Holmes

The MMA Guru picks Joseph Holmes but is hesitant. He thinks Holmes has a massive advantage on the feet and will land good shots while Amedovski struggles with takedowns. He trusts Holmes more now that he has octagon experience. He predicts a second-round TKO with a fadeaway hook.

second round TKO
"i'm gonna go joseph holmes"