UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song

Angelo leans Sandhagen primarily because of his five-round experience and ability to recover from bad rounds. He notes that Sandhagen is a fluid striker with good combinations and BJJ, but he lacks takedown volume. Angelo is not confident and thinks the odds are wide. He considers a plus points bet on Yadong.

Big Brady picks Cory Sandhagen to win by decision. He argues that Sandhagen is the better striker overall with higher volume (6.42 significant strikes per minute) and has fought much tougher competition (Yan, Dillashaw, Sterling). Brady notes that Sandhagen has never been knocked out and has excellent striking defense. He believes Song Yadong's power is a threat, but Sandhagen's durability and output should carry him to a decision win. Brady also mentions that this is Song's first five-round fight, which could be a factor. He is surprised by the public support for Song as a dog.

Cody agrees Sandhagen is the more refined fighter with better cardio and versatility. He highlights Sandhagen's wrestling improvements since the Sterling loss and his ability to maintain high output. Cody thinks Song's lack of five-round experience and tendency to slow down will be exploited. He calls Sandhagen a good top ticket play but not the most confident pick on the card.

Daniel Levi picks Song Yadong at plus 175 odds, placing one unit on him. He believes Song has enough output to make his harder shots count against Sandhagen's volume, and that the fight could be close enough for Song's power strikes to sway judges. He notes Sandhagen's year off and potential ring rust, and thinks the odds should be closer. He respects Sandhagen but sees value in the underdog.

Jacob picks Yadong, comparing his style to Petr Yan's and noting that Yadong is faster and more powerful now at 24. He believes Yadong's speed and power will close the distance and land big shots, potentially knocking down Sandhagen. Jacob thinks Yadong is peaking at the right time and can win by decision or finish.

Sandhagen is the master of distance and will make Song whiff, tiring him out. Sandhagen's footwork and in-and-out movement will keep him out of the pocket where Song's power is most dangerous. Sandhagen's cardio is superior for five rounds, and he has been training BJJ with Ryan Hall to add submission threats. Song's best path is leg kicks or an early knockout, but Sandhagen's style is a tough puzzle for Song at this stage. I expect Sandhagen to take over as the fight goes on and win a decision.

Paul thinks Sandhagen's five-round experience against TJ Dillashaw and Petr Yan is a huge advantage. He notes Sandhagen's durability and high output will be key, as Song Yadong is a counter puncher who will struggle with Sandhagen's volume. Paul believes Sandhagen will outwork Song over five rounds, though he acknowledges Song's power and youth make it not a lock. He also likes the under 4.5 rounds at plus money.

The MMA Guru picks Cory Sandhagen by decision. He acknowledges Song Yadong is an underrated prospect but notes Yadong has struggled against rangy, mobile strikers who switch stances, like Kyler Phillips and Casey Kenny. He believes Sandhagen is too good, too rangy, and too smart, and will take over as the fight goes on. He expects Sandhagen to lose the first round but win the last three or four rounds, with scorecards like 48-47 or 49-46.

Angelo picks Njokuani, citing his speed, power, and distance control. He notes that Rodrigues is slow and may struggle to close the distance, leaving himself open to big shots. Angelo placed a moneyline bet at -101 and notes the line has moved to -114.

Big Brady picks Chidi Njokuani to win by first-round knockout. He believes this is a violent matchup where someone gets finished early. Brady notes that Njokuani has looked like a completely different fighter recently, with impressive power (knocking out Marc-André Barriault in 16 seconds) and improved grappling. He doubts Gregory Rodrigues will grapple, as he refused to take down Armen Petrosyan despite clear opportunities. Brady thinks both will strike, and he favors Njokuani's power. He also mentions that Rodrigues was knocked out by Jordan Williams in the first round.

Cody thinks Rodrigues is continuously improving, with better striking and a BJJ black belt. He notes Njokuani's recent wins are over lower-level competition and that Rodrigues has paths to victory via wrestling and top control. However, he admits it's a volatile matchup and not a high-confidence play.

Daniel Levi leans Chidi Njokuani in this pick'em fight. He acknowledges Gregory Rodrigues is a banger with power and a black belt, but notes his willingness to stand and trade leaves him open. He thinks Chidi has patched his earlier issues and is more reliable, with a reach advantage and knockout power. However, he calls it a coin flip and does not place a bet due to the juice.

Jacob picks Rodrigues, believing he can get the fight to the ground where he has a grappling advantage. He notes that Njokuani has been taken down before and that Rodrigues has good control. Jacob acknowledges that if Rodrigues stands and bangs, he likely gets knocked out, but he hopes Rodrigues shoots early takedowns.

Chidi has a black belt in BJJ for defensive purposes and has improved his defensive wrestling, making it hard for Rodrigues to keep him down. Chidi's speed and length advantage will allow him to land big shots from the outside. Rodrigues may have a grappling edge but struggles to finish and will expend energy trying to control Chidi, leading to him slowing down. Chidi will find the chin and knock him out as the fight progresses.

Paul leans Rodrigues, citing his power and durability. He notes the line movement toward Rodrigues and thinks he has more paths to victory, including wrestling. However, he acknowledges Njokuani could knock him out early, so he's not fully confident.

The MMA Guru picks Chidi Njokuani by third-round TKO. He thinks Njokuani is talented with a long reach (80 inches) and is too rangy and smart to get into scrappy exchanges. He notes Rodrigues struggles against technical strikers who keep range, but beats brawlers. He believes Njokuani's power and reach advantage will lead to a late stoppage after a technical early fight.

Angelo picks Algeo as an underdog, citing his pressure, pace, and durability. He notes that Fili is talented but coming off a bad knockout and may be gun-shy. Angelo believes Algeo will push the pace and win a decision. He placed a moneyline bet at +115.

Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by decision, taking the dog. He acknowledges that Andre Fili is the better striker and has fought tougher competition, but Brady favors Algeo's high volume and cardio. He notes that Algeo has poor takedown defense but an excellent get-up game, so Fili likely won't hold him down. Brady expects Algeo to overwhelm Fili with output and win a close decision. He also mentions that Fili's output is low (3.82 significant strikes per minute) and his accuracy is 36%.

Cody agrees, noting Fili's wrestling and clinch work will exploit Algeo's takedown defense. He thinks Fili is smoother on the feet and will win a decision. He also mentions the prize picks line for Fili's significant strikes is 50.5, but he might avoid that due to potential wrestling-heavy game plan.

Daniel Levi picks Bill Algeo at plus 115 odds, placing one unit. He sees this as a coin flip fight and prefers the dog odds. He highlights Algeo's durability, volume, and ability to scramble back to his feet after takedowns. He notes Fili's long UFC career and tendency to have close fights, and thinks Algeo can pull away late with volume. He expects a competitive fight that could go either way.

Jacob picks Fili, believing he is the more talented and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Algeo is tough but lacks knockout power, so Fili can implement his game plan of bouncing in and out and mixing in takedowns. Jacob acknowledges that Fili has lost fights he should win but thinks this is a perfect matchup for him.

This is a 50-50 fight but Fili has more tools, mixing striking with takedowns. Algeo has good BJJ defensively but his takedown defense is a weakness. Fili is fighting with his back against the wall and should put together a full MMA game. Algeo's flashy striking can be dangerous but Fili's veteran experience and wrestling should edge him a decision.

Paul thinks Fili's wrestling advantage will be key, as Algeo has poor takedown defense. He notes Fili looked great against Pineda before the no-contest and that the flash KO loss to Brito is overblown. Paul expects Fili to mix in takedowns and win a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili by decision. He notes Bill Algeo is on short notice and has a child due soon, which may affect his cardio. He thinks Algeo struggles against well-rounded, durable fighters who can go the distance, like Ricardo Ramos and Ricardo Lamas. He believes Fili has great cardio and won't have to worry about power since Algeo has no power. He expects Fili to win a decision, and advises betting on Fili if he becomes an underdog.

Angelo picks Pyfer, praising his power, pressure, and wrestling. He notes that Amedovski is a knockout-or-bust fighter who has lost three in a row and looked disinterested. Angelo believes Pyfer can win by knockout or submission and is safe for parlays.

Big Brady is very confident in Joe Pyfer to win by first-round submission. He notes that Pyfer is well-rounded with good wrestling, grappling, and power, while Amedovski has looked horrible in the UFC with a 0% takedown defense. Brady expects Pyfer to take the easiest path: take down Amedovski, beat him up, and submit him. He also mentions that Amedovski's only threat is landing a big shot in the first 60 seconds, but Pyfer should have him covered everywhere.

Cody thinks Pyfer has Amedovski beat everywhere: striking, wrestling, and ground game. He notes Amedovski's poor takedown defense and chin issues. Cody calls Pyfer a top ticket play and a good parlay piece, though he acknowledges the price is steep.

Daniel Levi picks Joe Pyfer to win but refuses to bet at minus 425. He thinks Pyfer is overrated, with low volume and a susceptibility to being taken down, as seen in his contender series fight. He expects Pyfer to win due to Amedovski's poor UFC performances, but views Pyfer as a -400 type and plans to fade him in future fights against better competition.

Jacob is very confident in Pyfer, noting that Amedovski looked like he didn't want to be there in his last fight. He believes Pyfer is hungry and can finish early. Jacob wanted to bet under 1.5 rounds but the odds moved. He thinks Pyfer can win by knockout or submission.

Amedovski has shown terrible fight IQ and durability, getting knocked out quickly by John Phillips and submitted by Joseph Holmes. Pyfer is bigger, faster, and more skilled everywhere. Pyfer should take this to the ground and submit him or knock him out early. The under 1.5 rounds is a strong play. I took a sprinkle on Pyfer by submission at +550 but he may look for the knockout instead.

Paul calls Amedovski the worst fighter on the roster and says Pyfer should roll. He notes Pyfer's well-rounded skills and that Amedovski has been finished by lower-level opponents. Paul says he wouldn't bat an eye at people parlaying Pyfer.

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer by KO in the first round. He views Alen Amedovski as a fighter paid to lose, noting he was easily submitted by Joseph Holmes and KO'd by John Phillips. He thinks Amedovski is small for the division, out of shape, and 34 years old. He believes Pyfer's power, reach advantage, youth, and momentum will lead to a first-round knockout.

Angelo picks Boser, citing his athleticism and striking, but acknowledges Nascimento's size and grappling edge. He notes that Boser has been bullied by bigger wrestlers before, but Nascimento's layoff may help Boser. Angelo is hesitant and does not recommend betting on this fight.

Big Brady leans with Rodrigo Nascimento to win by first-round submission. He views this as a striker vs. grappler matchup: Boser has the clear striking advantage, while Nascimento is a BJJ black belt with slick submissions. Brady notes that Boser has struggled when taken down (e.g., against Ilir Latifi) and may not have a good get-up game. He also mentions that Nascimento is the younger fighter (29) and trains at American Top Team. However, Brady acknowledges that if Nascimento cannot get the takedown, Boser could knock him out. He calls the line 50/50.

Cody thinks Boser is faster, more mobile, and has better cardio. He notes Nascimento's poor performances against Chris Daukaus and Alan Baudot, and that Boser can out-volume him. However, he cautions that heavyweight fights are volatile and Boser has been off for 15 months.

Daniel Levi leans Tanner Boser but is not confident. He notes Boser's volume striking and durability, but worries about Nascimento's jiu-jitsu if the fight goes to the ground. He thinks Boser can piece him up on the feet, but Nascimento has a reach advantage and a questionable chin. He does not bet due to the uncertainty.

Jacob picks Boser, believing his speed and footwork will keep the fight standing, where he has the advantage. He notes that Nascimento needs takedowns but may not be quick enough to close the distance. Jacob warns against betting on heavyweights but thinks Boser wins a striking battle.

Nascimento is the bigger man and has a clear grappling advantage. Boser is a technical striker but struggles to get back to his feet when taken down, as seen in the Latifi fight. Nascimento should drag Boser to the ground and control him for 15 minutes. Boser's recent knockout power is a threat, but Nascimento's size and pressure should be enough to grind out a decision.

Paul agrees, noting Boser's high volume and that Nascimento has looked poor. He likes Boser's prize picks line of 35.5 significant strikes, thinking it's too low. He also mentions Boser's speed and cardio advantages.

The MMA Guru picks Tanner Boser by KO in the first round. He thinks Boser has good hands for heavyweight, is young, and is underrated. He notes Boser held his own against Ciryl Gane and arguably beat Ilir Latifi. He believes Nascimento is slow and sloppy on the feet, as seen against Chris Daukaus, and that Boser's quick hands in the pocket will lead to a multiple-punch combination finish late in the first round.

Angelo picks Hernandez because he is a superior grappler who should get takedowns against Barriault, who has been taken down by lesser grapplers. He notes that Barriault is the better striker, so Hernandez must be careful on the feet. Angelo believes Hernandez's path is clear: takedowns and control.

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by decision. He highlights Hernandez's relentless wrestling (5.39 takedowns per 15 minutes with 70% accuracy) and cardio. Brady notes that Barriault has poor takedown defense but a good get-up game, so Hernandez may not hold him down for long. However, Brady believes Hernandez's pace and pressure will wear down Barriault, and he expects Hernandez to wrestle his way to a decision victory. He also mentions that the striking should be competitive, with a slight edge to Barriault.

Cody thinks Hernandez's relentless wrestling and cardio will overwhelm Barriault. He notes Barriault's recent losses and that he was knocked out by Chidi Njokuani. Cody expects Hernandez to grind out a decision or possibly get a submission.

Daniel Levi picks Marc-André Barriault at plus 155 odds, placing one unit. He likes Barriault's move to Sanford MMA, improved takedown defense, and body attack potential against Hernandez, who has shown vulnerability to body shots. He thinks Barriault's output and cardio can carry him in a close fight, but acknowledges Hernandez's submission threat and grinding style. He sees value in the underdog.

Jacob is all-in on Hernandez, noting that Barriault's takedown defense is poor and that Hernandez is a better wrestler than Jordan Wright, who was about to dominate Barriault before getting caught in a guillotine. Jacob believes Hernandez will not make that mistake and will dominate the wrestling. He thinks the -174 odds are good value.

Hernandez will drown Barriault with his wrestling and pace, similar to a poor man's Cain Velasquez. Barriault is not a big finisher and Hernandez's durability is the only question mark. If Hernandez stays conscious, he will win via takedowns and pressure. Barriault's heavy strikes will be countered with level changes. Hernandez by decision at +200 is a good spot.

Paul leans Hernandez, noting Barriault's takedown defense issues. He thinks Hernandez can wrestle and potentially submit him. He mentions the prize picks line of 3 takedowns for Hernandez and thinks that's achievable.

The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez by decision. He is impressed by Hernandez's pace and grappling, especially after his win over Josh Fremd. He thinks Barriault relies on outpacing opponents but won't be able to outpace Hernandez. He notes Barriault has been KO'd by Chidi Njokuani and struggled against durable fighters. He expects Hernandez to take over in later rounds with heavy grappling and improved striking, winning a close 29-28 decision.

Angelo picks Sabatini, citing his superior wrestling and pure grappling. He notes that Sabatini has technical striking and controls range well, but his main path is through takedowns and top control. Angelo worries about Jackson's pressure but believes Sabatini's grappling will prevail. He is surprised the line has tightened.

Big Brady picks Pat Sabatini to win inside the distance, but acknowledges it's a tough fight to call. He notes that both fighters are similar—BJJ black belts with wrestling backgrounds and mediocre striking. Brady gives the edge to Sabatini due to his youth, power on the feet, and training at Renzo Gracie Philly (which has a 15-0 or 16-0 UFC record). He also points out that Damon Jackson has been finished in all four of his losses (three by KO). Brady predicts Sabatini will hurt Jackson on the feet and then submit him.

Cody thinks Jackson's BJJ black belt and striking advantage will trouble Sabatini, who is one-dimensional. He notes Sabatini struggles when takedowns are stuffed and Jackson can make it ugly on the feet. Cody calls it a potential apple pie (underdog pick).

Daniel Levi picks Pat Sabatini, trusting his wrestling and submission game to win rounds. He views Sabatini as a reliable round-winner despite low output, while Jackson can be slowed down and give up positions. He thinks Sabatini is more likely to seal rounds with late takedowns. He does not bet due to the price.

Jacob is a big fan of Sabatini, calling him 'my dude' and noting his 4-0 lock of the week record. He praises Sabatini's control on the ground and his ability to keep opponents against the cage. Jacob worries about Sabatini's striking improvements but believes his grappling will dominate. He jumped on the -200 line and may double down.

Jackson is the best grappler Sabatini has faced; once it hits the mat, it's a 50-50 fight. Sabatini may be the better wrestler but Jackson has high-level Jiu-Jitsu and experience against tough competition. Jackson's ability to reverse and get back to his feet will be key. The line should be closer to a pick'em, so Jackson at plus money is worth a shot. I see Jackson winning a decision.

Paul leans Jackson, noting Sabatini's lack of striking and that Jackson can stuff takedowns. He admits he hasn't been a Jackson guy historically but sees a path. He's not very confident.

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini by submission in the third round. He notes Damon Jackson often wins by barely doing enough and has trouble with shorter opponents, as seen against Daniel Argueta. He believes Sabatini's jiu-jitsu and shorter stocky frame will cause problems, and that Sabatini is younger and closer to his prime. He expects Sabatini to get a submission win.

Angelo picks Giles but hates the odds, calling them far too wide. He notes that Giles is athletic with a good jab and should be able to get the fight to the ground, where he has a wide advantage. However, he acknowledges that Cosce is the more powerful striker and could finish early. Angelo suggests an inside the distance/decision no action bet on Cosce at +170.

Big Brady picks Trevin Giles to win by late first-round submission, but with hesitation. He acknowledges Giles has poor fight IQ and cardio, but notes that Giles has all the skills—powerful jab, good wrestling, BJJ black belt. Brady expects Louis Cosce to come out aggressively looking for a finish, as he has a 100% finish rate all in the first round. If Giles survives the initial onslaught (2.5-3 minutes), Brady believes Giles will take over and submit Cosce, who gassed in his last fight. Brady also mentions that Giles recently quit his police job to focus on fighting, which could be a positive sign.

Cody thinks Cosce has a wrestling advantage and power, and that Giles has a questionable chin and low volume. He notes Cosce's two-year layoff could have helped him improve. He calls Cosce 'live' but admits it's a low-confidence pick.

Daniel Levi leans Trevin Giles due to his experience and level of competition, but is not interested at the price. He notes Giles has been knocked out in two straight fights and questions his fight IQ, but thinks his jab and takedown mix should be enough to give Cosce a vet lesson. He sees Cosce as unproven with weak competition.

Jacob picks Cosce, believing he will get a first-round finish. He notes that Cosce is a dangerous striker with power and pressure, and that Giles can wilt when pressured. Jacob acknowledges Cosce's cardio issues but thinks he will finish early. He suggests live betting Giles if Cosce fades after the first round.

Cosce is a first-round finisher with all his wins coming in round one, but he fades if the fight goes longer. Giles is vulnerable early but if he survives, he should take over with his jab and aggression. The fight likely ends inside the distance. I lean Giles surviving and finishing Cosce later, but Cosce by round one at +750 is a live sprinkle.

Paul picks Cosce but is not confident, calling it 'gross'. He notes Giles' poor takedown numbers and thinks Cosce could have a wrestling advantage. He says he'll blame Cody if it loses.

The MMA Guru picks Trevin Giles by 29-28 decision. He thinks Louis Cosce is athletic but lacks hype, and Giles is bigger with a reach advantage. He expects Giles to use his jab and wear down Cosce, surviving any early power shots. He notes Giles has good grappling and should win the later rounds, possibly losing the first round but coming back to win a decision.

Angelo picks Lookboonmee, citing her technical Muay Thai striking and improved grappling. He notes that her only losses came when she was outgrappled, but he doesn't see that happening here. He believes she will win the striking exchanges and can mix in takedowns. Angelo mentions the line was wide but is tightening, and he considered a takedown prop bet.

Big Brady picks Loma Lookboonmee to win by decision. He states that Loma is the better technical striker by a mile and has improved with each fight. He notes that Denise Gomes is tough and gritty but very chinny, having been dropped and wobbled often. Brady believes Loma can implement her striking and possibly even get takedowns. However, he warns that Gomes throws high volume and has good recovery, so he would not lay the moneyline. He predicts Loma wins a decision, possibly dropping Gomes along the way.

Cody thinks Lookboonmee is a better striker with good clinch work and takedown defense. He notes Gomes is one-dimensional and coming off a short-notice fight where she took damage. He expects Lookboonmee to win a decision.

Daniel Levi leans Loma Lookboonmee due to her UFC experience and better competition, but is not confident. He notes both fighters are small for the weight class and that Gomes is tough with high volume. He expects a close split decision that could go either way, and does not bet.

Jacob is very high on Lookboonmee, praising her Muay Thai experience and her addition of wrestling and trips. He notes that she tossed Lupita Godinez, a great wrestler, to the ground. Jacob believes she is better everywhere and that the odds should be wider. He included her in a parlay at -270 and may add a moneyline bet if the odds drop further.

Loma has a decorated Muay Thai background and has added takedowns to her game, making her a more complete MMA fighter. Gomes is one-dimensional, relying on striking, and has shown vulnerability to grappling. Loma's cardio is better than Gomes's previous opponents, so she can mix in leg kicks and takedowns to keep Gomes guessing. Loma should win a decision or possibly a late finish.

Paul leans Lookboonmee, noting the line has moved but he still thinks she gets it done. He mentions the Lookboonmee decision prop at -105 as a better value.

The MMA Guru picks Loma Lookboonmee by 29-28 decision. He believes Lookboonmee is a technical striker with Muay Thai foundation, ready on short notice. He notes she has good grappling and has fought tough opponents like Angela Hill and Michelle Waterson. He thinks Denise Gomes is nothing special and that Lookboonmee will win on the feet with superior striking.

Angelo picks Zellhuber, impressed by his dynamic striking, length, and takedown defense. He notes that Ogden is a grappler who sometimes chooses to strike, which would be a mistake against Zellhuber. Angelo placed a moneyline bet at -230 and notes the line has moved to -270, emphasizing the value of early betting for premium members.

Big Brady is confident in Daniel Zellhuber to win by decision. He praises Zellhuber as a well-rounded fighter with a significant reach advantage (5.5-6.5 inches) and superior striking. Brady criticizes Trey Ogden's performance against Jordan Levitt, where Ogden was outlanded 69-41 and failed to secure takedowns. He doubts Ogden can take down or submit the larger Zellhuber, who is a BJJ black belt. Brady predicts Zellhuber will pick Ogden apart on the feet for three rounds and win a 30-27 decision.

Cody agrees, highlighting Zellhuber's altitude training, durability, and well-rounded skills. He thinks Ogden has no path to victory and that Zellhuber could finish inside the distance. He calls it a top-two ticket play.

Daniel Levi is very high on Daniel Zellhuber, calling him one of the best prospects in a long time. He likes Zellhuber's composure, striking arsenal, and physical attributes (6'1", 77-inch reach). He notes Zellhuber's training at Tiger Muay Thai and with Eric Nicksick, and believes he will knock out Trey Ogden. He placed one unit at minus 245.

Jacob picks Zellhuber, calling him the real deal with dynamic striking and Mexican toughness. He notes that Ogden is a wrestler who doesn't always wrestle, which is dangerous against a striker like Zellhuber. Jacob predicts a knockout, as Zellhuber's power and precision will find the mark. He worries slightly about Ogden's grappling but believes Zellhuber can handle it.

Zellhuber is the better striker and grappler, with length and speed advantages. He has been training at Xtreme Couture under Eric Nicksick, who is high on him. Ogden is a jack of all trades but not at UFC level. Zellhuber should win inside the distance; his inside distance prop at +110 is a better play than the moneyline. He is a solid parlay piece.

Paul thinks Zellhuber is a legitimate prospect with good cardio, chin, and grappling. He notes Ogden looked poor against Jordan Leavitt and that Zellhuber has been training with top guys. He expects Zellhuber to steamroll Ogden.

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber by decision. He thinks Zellhuber looks special with crisp striking, while Trey Ogden is underrated but didn't beat Jordan Leavitt, which is a benchmark. He notes Ogden has been submitted before and Zellhuber is young (23) with momentum from the Contender Series. He expects a decision win because Ogden is tough and has a good chin, so a KO is unlikely.

Angelo picks Robertson because he sees a clear path: bully Agapova with takedowns and control, similar to what Marina Moroz did. He notes that Agapova has poor takedown defense and gives up when taken down. Robertson is not a dominant wrestler but can get the fight to the ground and control from top position. Angelo originally had no bets but may add some.

Big Brady confidently picks Gillian Robertson to win by second-round submission. He highlights that Robertson is a BJJ black belt with strong takedowns and grappling, while Agapova struggles with takedown defense (42%) and cardio. Brady notes that Agapova has been controlled and submitted by grapplers like Marina Moroz and Tracy Cortez. He believes Robertson will implement her game plan, get the fight to the mat, and finish Agapova. However, he warns that if Robertson cannot get takedowns, Agapova could knock her out on the feet.

Cody thinks Robertson's grappling advantage will be decisive, especially since her coach Dean Thomas knows Agapova from American Top Team. He notes Agapova's poor takedown defense and tendency to wilt under grappling pressure. He expects Robertson to get takedowns and control the fight.

Daniel Levi leans Gillian Robertson contingent on her getting takedowns. He notes Robertson's game plan is to take down and submit, while Agapova has been finished on the mat before. However, if Agapova stuffs takedowns, she will light Robertson up on the feet. He does not bet due to uncertainty.

Jacob picks Robertson, emphasizing that Agapova showed zero urgency off her back against Moroz and gave up. He believes Robertson can copy that game plan: get in her face, clinch, trip, and dominate on the ground. Jacob notes that Robertson is underrated as a grappler and that Agapova always loses to someone who can out-wrestle and out-tough her. He included Robertson in a female parlay for premium members.

Robertson has a clear path to victory via takedowns and submissions. Agapova is the better striker but her takedown defense is suspect. Robertson's tenacity and pressure should get the fight to the ground, where she is a submission threat. The under 2.5 rounds at -150 is a strong play as both are finish-reliant. Robertson by submission at +150 is also appealing.

Paul leans Agapova, citing her striking advantage and Robertson's poor wrestling. He acknowledges Agapova is inconsistent but thinks she can win if she keeps it standing. He's not confident enough to bet it.

The MMA Guru picks Gillian Robertson by submission. He notes that Mariya Agapova looks lost on the ground when taken down, as seen against Marina Moroz and Shayna Dobson. He believes Robertson's grappling, training under Dean Thomas, and recent submission wins will translate. He mentions Robertson is young (27) and has been training in grappling tournaments, so she knows the game plan to get takedowns and secure a submission.

Angelo picks Basharat because he is more well-rounded, with excellent offensive and defensive wrestling and technical striking. He notes that Gravely is a dominant wrestler but has cardio issues and questionable submission defense. Angelo acknowledges that Gravely's pressure and takedown attempts could be a problem, but believes Basharat's footwork and striking advantage will carry him.

Big Brady picks Javid Basharat to win, but with hesitation. He acknowledges that Tony Gravely has fought much better competition and has a phenomenal wrestling resume, but Brady is concerned about Gravely's cardio, chin, and submission defense. Brady notes that Basharat is dangerous everywhere—striking, wrestling, and submissions—and thinks Basharat can catch Gravely in a submission as the fight goes on. He also mentions that Gravely has been finished six times (five by submission). However, Brady says he would not bet the moneyline due to question marks about Basharat's takedown defense, which hasn't been tested against a wrestler of Gravely's caliber.

Cody agrees, citing Basharat's size, cardio, and durability. He notes Gravely's tendency to get submitted when tired and that Basharat's wrestling and pressure will be key. He thinks Basharat can survive early adversity and win.

Daniel Levi leans Javid Basharat due to his output, length, and well-roundedness, but is not confident. He sees Tony Gravely as a tough prospect tester with power and wrestling, but prone to bonehead mistakes. He thinks Basharat projects higher but this is a tough test. He does not bet, preferring to watch.

Jacob picks Basharat, agreeing with Angelo that Gravely will wrestle nonstop but that Basharat's footwork and technical striking give him a major advantage. He notes that Gravely's takedowns are not always successful and that Basharat can keep it standing. Jacob also mentions that the minus 150 odds are more appetizing than the initial two-to-one line.

Basharat has slick striking and excellent defensive grappling, which should neutralize Gravely's takedowns. Gravely may land takedowns but struggles to keep opponents down, and Basharat will work back to his feet and land bigger shots. Basharat's cardio and finishing ability are factors. I like Basharat by decision at +300 or a late finish. However, this is Basharat's toughest test, so I'm not betting the moneyline.

Paul thinks Basharat's cardio and durability will wear down Gravely, who tends to fade. He notes Gravely's losses come from being broken down over time. He expects Basharat to out-grapple and out-last Gravely.

The MMA Guru picks Javid Basharat by 29-28 decision. He thinks Tony Gravely is talented but perhaps overrated, noting his close fights and losses to Nate Maness and Brett Johns. He believes Basharat is on that level, trains at a great gym, and will out-strike Gravely on the feet, ripping the body and landing head shots. He expects Gravely to win the first round via grappling but Basharat to take over in rounds 2 and 3 based on damage.

Angelo picks Motta because he believes Motta is the better striker, with explosive athleticism and solid takedown defense. He notes that VanCamp is a wild brawler with power but is kill-or-be-killed, and that Motta should be able to pick him apart if he keeps a tight guard. However, he acknowledges the odds are wide and VanCamp is a live underdog, making him hesitant.

Big Brady picks Nikolas Motta to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Motta has dynamite in his hands and hits very hard, while Cameron VanCamp has poor striking defense (29% striking defense) and keeps his hands down with his chin up. Brady believes Motta's power will be too much for VanCamp, who has been knocked out multiple times. He also mentions that VanCamp is cutting down to 155 for the first time in a while, which could affect his performance. Brady predicts a first-round knockout for Motta.

Cody thinks VanCamp's size and reach advantage at 155 will be key. He notes Motta's questionable chin and low volume. He says VanCamp looked good in his last fight despite the KO loss and can out-point Motta from distance.

Daniel Levi leans Nikolas Motta, citing his brawling style and durability compared to VanCamp, who has been knocked out at 170 and is moving down. He thinks Motta is more UFC-ready and has improved by training in the US. He is not crazy about the price and does not bet.

Jacob picks VanCamp despite being biased because he trains with a friend of VanCamp. He highlights VanCamp's tenacity, length, power, and finishing ability, noting that he hurt Fiallo in his debut before getting caught. Jacob also took the under 1.5 rounds, expecting a brawl. He acknowledges Motta is more technical but believes VanCamp's pressure and power will prevail.

Motta is the slicker striker with better technique, while VanCamp is loose and defensively flawed. Both have durability issues, but Motta should capitalize on VanCamp's poor striking defense and counter him. The fight likely ends inside the distance. I prefer the fight doesn't go to decision at -170 to -225 rather than Motta's moneyline at -195.

Paul does not give a clear pick for this fight. He says he has no thoughts and defers to Cody.

The MMA Guru picks Cameron VanCamp as a massive underdog. He believes Nikolas Motta is not special after losing to Jim Miller, and that VanCamp's size, grappling, and full camp will be decisive. He predicts a first-round submission via rear naked choke, noting VanCamp's teeps and calf kicks to wear down opponents. He acknowledges Motta may start fast but thinks VanCamp's youth and experience give him the edge.