UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze

Angelo picks Chikadze as the safe pick, citing his phenomenal striking, kicks, and range management. He notes Kattar is a live underdog with excellent boxing and a wrestling background that could pose problems if he pressures. He mentions possibly sprinkling a bet on Kattar.

Big Brady admits he has been a Giga Chikadze hater but acknowledges Giga's improvements, especially his cardio in the Omar Morales fight. He notes Giga has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in the past, while Calvin Kattar has a steel chin and absorbs strikes. Brady expects Giga to win the first three rounds and take a decision, but is hesitant due to the five-round distance and Kattar's durability. He does not like the moneyline at -233 and would not bet it.

Cody picks Giga Chikadze, emphasizing his clean kickboxing and ability to dictate range with kicks. He notes Kattar struggles against longer opponents and that Giga's cardio looked solid in recent fights. He worries about Giga's takedown defense but doubts Kattar will wrestle. He suggests betting Kattar live after the second or third round if he survives the early onslaught.

Daniel Levi picks Giga Chikadze to win and be the first to finish Calvin Kattar via strikes. He argues that Kattar is a one-dimensional boxer with a negative strike differential, and that Giga's diverse striking—especially body kicks and head kicks—will be too much. He notes Giga has improved his cardio and grappling, citing his anaconda attempt on Barboza and brown belt in jiu-jitsu. Levi acknowledges Kattar's toughness and right hand but believes Giga's precision and power will prevail. He placed 5 units on Giga at -215.

The host believes Giga Chikadze's kick-heavy game plan will be the key to victory, targeting Calvin Kattar's legs which have historically been a weakness. He notes that Kattar is the better technical boxer, but Chikadze's diverse kicking attacks (leg, body, head) and ability to switch targets will slow Kattar down. The host is confident Chikadze can implement this strategy effectively, though he acknowledges the fight could go the distance if Kattar absorbs the kicks and keeps moving forward. He ultimately picks Chikadze by decision, but also considers an inside-the-distance finish possible.

Paul leans toward Giga Chikadze as the better striker, noting that if the fight stays at kicking range, Kattar will get torn up. He acknowledges Kattar's boxing and pressure but believes Giga's kicks and range control are decisive. He mentions the line is close to accurate but doesn't love the -235 price. He suggests Kattar might have a path via wrestling, but considers it unlikely.

The MMA Guru picks Giga Chikadze to win by decision, citing Chikadze's superior kicking game and Kattar's well-known vulnerability to leg kicks, as exposed by Renato Moicano. He notes that Kattar is a slow starter who struggles with kicks, and coming off a year-long layoff after taking massive damage against Max Holloway, he expects Kattar to be even more hesitant early. Chikadze's activity (three fights in the past year) and improved takedown defense are also factors, as Kattar is unlikely to wrestle. However, he acknowledges Kattar is a good underdog and could pull off an upset if he survives the early kicking onslaught.

Angelo picks Sherman in a close fight, citing his better athleticism and pace. He notes both are similar boxers but Sherman has better volume and durability, while Collier may fade. He expects a striking war going to decision and won't bet on it.

Big Brady notes Jake Collier throws high volume but has no power, while Chase Sherman hits hard and has a 93% knockout rate. He thinks Sherman's durability and power will be the difference, predicting a knockout. However, he admits neither fighter is reliable and that Collier could win a decision if he survives. He picks Sherman by knockout but is not confident.

Cody picks Collier, agreeing with Paul's analysis. He notes Sherman's cardio issues and Collier's volume striking. He expects Collier to win by decision or late TKO. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds is heavily juiced, indicating a likely decision.

Daniel Levi picks Jake Collier, citing his higher work rate and slightly better technique. He warns about Chase Sherman's leg kicks and durability but notes Sherman's cardio drops off in later rounds, which has been a consistent issue even before his USADA suspension. Levi believes Collier can capitalize on Sherman's fatigue and land effective strikes. He also mentions that Collier looked good against Valente and that Sherman has shown a tendency to shy away in tough fights.

The host favors Jake Collier due to his high output and movement, similar to Parker Porter who beat Sherman. He notes Sherman's power is a threat early, but Collier's volume and cardio should take over as the fight progresses. He expects Collier to win a decision, as he doesn't see Collier finishing Sherman. The host is confident in Collier's ability to avoid Sherman's power and accumulate strikes.

Paul picks Collier, citing Sherman's pattern of gassing after the first round. He notes Collier's high volume and durability, and expects him to outwork Sherman in rounds 2 and 3. He suggests betting Collier live after round 1 as a hedge. He also mentions Collier by decision at +150 as a prop.

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Jake Collier, despite acknowledging that most people are picking Chase Sherman. He notes that Sherman has poor head movement and was easily beaten by Arlovski and Parker Porter. Collier, though he ballooned up from middleweight, showed some skill against Carlos Felipe and has a reach advantage. He believes Collier's technical advantages from being a former middleweight will carry him to a close split decision win in a back-and-forth fight.

Angelo picks Royval but worries about his wildness leading to a submission loss. He notes Royval is the better striker and more well-rounded, while Bontorin is the better grappler with more power. He placed a prop bet on Bontorin 'wins inside distance or decision no action' at +165, meaning if Bontorin loses a decision he gets a refund.

Big Brady highlights Royval's striking volume and pace as key advantages, noting Bontorin has low output and poor striking defense. He believes Royval's cardio will be decisive, especially since Bontorin struggles with weight cuts and has slowed down in the past. He predicts Royval will finish Bontorin by knockout in the second or third round after Bontorin fades.

Cody picks Royval, emphasizing his furious pace, crafty grappling, and ability to recover from adversity. He notes Bontorin's weight cut issues and tendency to fade. He expects Royval to win by submission or TKO as Bontorin gasses. He calls it a potential fight of the night.

Daniel Levi picks Brandon Royval to outwork Bontorin. He notes that Bontorin cuts massive weight and tends to fatigue, while Royval pushes a relentless pace. Levi acknowledges Bontorin's explosiveness and black belt jiu-jitsu but believes Royval's scrambling and get-ups will neutralize takedowns. He also mentions Royval's chin and durability, though he has defensive flaws. Levi considers the line accurate and sees no value on either side, but picks Royval to win.

The host is high on Brandon Royval's chaotic style and pressure, believing he will overwhelm Bontorin, especially given Bontorin's difficult weight cut to 125 lbs. He expects Royval to drag Bontorin into deep waters, wearing him down with forward pressure and activity. The host sees a finish likely in the second or third round via TKO as Bontorin fades. He notes Bontorin's BJJ is a threat but thinks Royval's chaos and cardio will prevail.

Paul picks Royval, praising his scrambling, submission threats off his back, and superior striking. He notes Bontorin has good BJJ but fades in scrambles and has cardio issues. He expects Royval's pace to overwhelm Bontorin, leading to a finish inside two and a half rounds. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds is juiced but still likely.

The MMA Guru picks Bontorin as one of his bigger underdogs on the card. He highlights Royval's habit of turning his back and giving up rear-naked chokes, as seen against Pantoja and Moreno. Bontorin has strong grappling and submission skills, and he was dominating Kai Kara-France before getting caught. He also notes that Bontorin may come in heavier if he misses weight. He predicts a scrappy first round where Royval may have success, but then Bontorin will jump on a standing rear-naked choke in the second round after Royval gives up his back again.

Angelo picks Cerminara based on her volume and pace, referencing their first fight where she outstruck Maia even while on her back for half a round. He expects Maia to grapple more but believes Cerminara's takedown defense and striking output will win another decision.

Big Brady expects the fight to play out similarly to their first meeting, with Cerminara using her reach and staying on the outside to outpoint Maia. He criticizes Maia's fight IQ, noting she rarely shoots takedowns despite having good grappling. He thinks Maia could win if she wrestles but does not trust her to do so. He picks Cerminara by decision but is not touching the moneyline due to the close nature of the fight.

Cody picks Chookagian, highlighting her volume, speed, and improved grappling since the first fight. He doubts Maia's ability to implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, noting Maia's takedown success is overblown. He expects Chookagian to win by decision, likely 30-27 or 29-28. He recommends the decision prop at -120.

Daniel Levi leans toward Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) but is not confident. He notes that Chookagian's volume and movement at distance will likely edge two rounds, but Maia has a path to victory if she implements her grappling earlier. He mentions Maia's top control and that she won a round against Valentina Shevchenko. Levi thinks the line should be closer and could see Maia winning, but ultimately leans Chookagian.

The host expects a repeat of their first fight, where Cerminara's stick-and-move style frustrated Maia. He believes Cerminara's range and movement will be too much for Maia, who hasn't shown significant improvement since their last bout. He notes Maia's takedown success in the third round of their first fight but thinks Cerminara can escape similar positions. The host is confident in Cerminara winning a decision, citing her consistent performance against similar opponents.

Paul picks Chookagian, expecting a similar fight to their first where Chookagian's volume and reach advantage win rounds. He notes Maia's path is takedowns, but doubts she can secure them early and often. He mentions Chookagian's improved ground game and Maia's inconsistent wrestling. He sees a decision win for Chookagian.

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) to win by decision, citing her superior stand-up and reach advantage (68-inch reach vs Maia's 64-inch). He notes that Maia had a close fight with Jessica Eye, who is on her way out, while Chookagian has beaten Cynthia Calvillo and Antonina Shevchenko. He trusts Chookagian to keep the fight standing and out-strike Maia at range, and he values her activity and recent grappling improvement. He predicts a unanimous decision (30-27).

Angelo picks Borshchev despite acknowledging the odds are too wide. He highlights Borshchev's world-class striking from his kickboxing background and notes that training at Team Alpha Male should improve his wrestling. He worries about Borshchev's untested cardio and takedown defense but believes his striking advantage is decisive.

Big Brady acknowledges Borshchev's striking is elite but worries about his takedown defense, as he has been taken down frequently. He expects Bush to get takedowns but believes Borshchev's get-up game and cardio will allow him to win rounds on the feet. He predicts a decision win for Borshchev, though he notes the line has flipped and Bush could be a live dog.

Cody picks Borshchev, agreeing with Paul. He notes Bush's cardio issues and Borshchev's power. He expects Borshchev to win by TKO as Bush fades. He mentions Borshchev is limited but this is a favorable matchup.

Daniel Levi picks Dakota Bush in the upset. He criticizes Borshchev's speed and athleticism, calling him slow and not a top-notch Russian prospect. Levi notes Bush's agility and that he had a full camp after taking the Hubbard fight on short notice. He believes the line should be closer to a pick'em and that Bush can overwhelm Borshchev with pace. However, he admits neither fighter impressed him much.

The host is impressed with Borshchev's striking combinations and takedown defense, expecting him to stuff Bush's wrestling and keep the fight standing. He notes Bush's takedowns are not strong enough to hold Borshchev down, and Borshchev's relentless pressure and volume will lead to a finish. The host predicts a knockout in the first or second round, as Borshchev's technical striking and heat behind his shots will overwhelm Bush.

Paul picks Borshchev, noting his power striking and ability to get back up from takedowns. He expects Bush to gas after the first round, leaving him vulnerable to Borshchev's power. He mentions Borshchev's training at Team Alpha Male prepares him for wrestlers.

The MMA Guru picks Borshchev to win by TKO in the second round. He likes Borshchev's performance on the Contender Series against Chris Duncan and his overall stand-up. He acknowledges that Dakota Bush is a very good grappler and could have success in the first round, but he believes Borshchev will work his way back up and wear Bush down by defending takedowns. As Bush slows, Borshchev will land body shots and hooks for a late second-round TKO. He notes that Bush is a good underdog and is surprised more people aren't picking him.

Angelo picks Brito, citing Algeo's poor takedown defense (20 takedowns allowed in last 4 fights). He believes Brito's grappling pressure will be too much and that Algeo will struggle to get back up. He also placed a prop bet on Brito by decision at +185 and a small moneyline bet at -130.

Big Brady notes Brito has power and can take down Algeo, but Algeo has an elite get-up game and high volume. He worries about Brito's cardio if he expends energy on takedowns. He picks Brito to win a decision, citing Brito's bigger moments on the feet and ability to mix in takedowns, though he admits it could get sketchy late.

Cody picks Brito, despite Algeo being his 'boy'. He notes Algeo's takedown defense is poor and Brito's power and strength will be too much. He expects Brito to win via takedowns and top control, possibly a decision. He suggests betting Algeo live if he drops early rounds.

Daniel Levi picks Joanderson Brito, calling him a bright prospect with explosive power and physicality. He notes Brito's top control, ground and pound, and one-punch knockout power. Levi acknowledges Algeo's toughness, length, and cardio, but believes Brito's physicality will be too much and that he can neutralize Algeo's takedown defense. He placed 2.5 units on Brito at -125.

The host leans toward Brito, believing his aggressive forward pressure and heavy strikes will outwork Algeo's passive, outside striking. He notes Algeo's BJJ could be a factor if he takes Brito down, but expects Brito to win a kickboxing match. The host is concerned about Brito's takedown defense but thinks his cardio and output will secure a decision. He compares Brito favorably to Spike Carlyle, who gave Algeo trouble.

Paul picks Brito, citing his power, strength, and takedown ability. He notes Algeo's takedown defense was exposed by Ricardo Ramos, and expects Brito to replicate that game plan. He mentions Algeo's cardio and scrambling but doubts he can overcome Brito's physicality. He suggests betting Algeo live if he survives early rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Joanderson Brito to win by decision. He notes that Brito is younger, more active, and has good wins on the regional scene, including over Diego Lopez. He has good stand-up, grappling, and cardio, having gone five rounds before. Algeo is 32, hasn't fought in 6-7 months, and hasn't shown great cardio. He believes Brito's momentum and well-roundedness will carry him to a dominant 30-27 decision, and that Algeo's only path to victory is if Brito gasses, which he doesn't see happening.

Angelo leans toward Pickett due to UFC experience, but worries about Holmes' equal size and grappling threat. He notes Pickett's reach advantage is neutralized and that both can be gun-shy. He calls it a razor-thin pick and says he won't bet on it.

Big Brady thinks the odds are off, as Joseph Holmes is inexperienced and has fought low-level competition, while Jamie Pickett has faced UFC-caliber fighters. He calls it a coin flip and says he would not bet it, but if forced to pick, he takes Pickett as a dog by decision. He notes both fighters have similar skill sets and low volume.

Cody leans toward Holmes, citing his length and reach advantage. He notes Holmes's camp (James Krause) will have a good game plan. He expects Holmes to use his range striking and avoid grappling. However, he admits Holmes looked green and the fight could go either way.

Daniel Levi leans toward Joseph Holmes, citing his physical advantages (6'4", 80-inch reach) and finishing ability (submission and KO). He notes that Pickett has folded under pressure in the past, losing by first-round finishes to Charles Byrd and Jordan Wright. Levi is hesitant because Holmes hasn't been tested at UFC level, but he believes Holmes will outwork Pickett in a close fight. He also mentions Pickett's mental struggles and that he's seeing a therapist.

The host leans toward Joseph Holmes, expecting him to dictate the pace with clinch work and takedowns against the cage. He notes Pickett's durability but thinks Holmes' aggression and control will win rounds. The host is not confident in a finish, predicting a decision. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a possible bet due to both fighters' low finishing rates.

Paul leans toward Pickett as an underdog, citing his experience and durability. He notes Holmes is very green and his striking is telegraphed. He expects Pickett's strength in the clinch to be a factor. However, he acknowledges Holmes's length and potential if he keeps the fight at range.

The MMA Guru picks Joseph Holmes to win by first-round TKO. He highlights Holmes' Muay Thai background, range, power, and accuracy on the feet, and notes that Holmes already beat Pickett on the regional scene by first-round destruction. He doesn't see Pickett's grappling as a threat, as Holmes is rangier and better at controlling distance. He expects Holmes to land a clean shot early and finish the fight quickly, similar to how Jordan Wright did.

Angelo picks Brahimaj, citing his world-class jiu-jitsu and the blueprint from Sean Brady's win over McGee. He notes Brahimaj's tendency to strike instead of grapple but expects him to stick to grappling here. He believes Brahimaj will get takedowns and control McGee to a decision win, as McGee is incredibly tough to finish.

Big Brady highlights that Brahimaj has a 100% submission rate but has never been past the first round, while McGee has never been submitted in 30 fights. He expects Brahimaj to slow down after the first round, allowing McGee's cardio and striking to take over. He picks McGee by decision, noting McGee's takedown defense and ability to get back up.

Cody picks Brahimaj, emphasizing his youth, athleticism, and grappling. He notes McGee's skills are outdated and his takedown defense is poor. He expects Brahimaj to win via decision, possibly with a submission attempt. He mentions McGee's cardio but doubts it will be enough.

Daniel Levi picks Ramiz Brahimaj, citing youth and momentum. He notes that Brahimaj is a beast on the mat when fresh, but has cardio and plan B concerns. Levi believes Brahimaj can finish Court McGee, who is 37 and has shown signs of slowing. He argues that McGee's recent wins are over older opponents and that Brahimaj's talent will shine. Levi expects a statement finish from Brahimaj.

The host favors Court McGee due to his veteran savvy, cardio, and takedown defense. He notes Brahimaj's all-offense style and suspect cardio, expecting McGee to weather an early storm and take over in later rounds. The host highlights McGee's never-submitted record and ability to get back to his feet. He predicts a decision win for McGee, possibly with a late finish if Brahimaj gasses.

Paul leans toward Brahimaj, noting his youth, athleticism, and grappling. He expects Brahimaj to take McGee down and control him. He questions if Brahimaj can maintain pace for three rounds but thinks his submission threat will be enough. He mentions McGee's durability and cardio as potential factors.

The MMA Guru picks Ramiz Brahimaj to win, noting that he is younger, trains at a good gym, and has more finishing ability. He was initially tempted by Court McGee as an underdog but realized Brahimaj is actually the underdog. He trusts Brahimaj's grappling and striking in the early rounds, and believes his desire to return after the ear injury shows dedication. He acknowledges McGee's pressure and toughness could be a factor in later rounds, but thinks Brahimaj will win the early rounds enough to take a decision or finish.

Big Brady notes the significant age and reach advantage for Croom, who is 26 and has a 5-inch reach edge. He praises Croom's wrestling and grappling, and expects him to exploit Kelleher's 59% takedown defense. He predicts Croom will win a decision, though he acknowledges Kelleher is dangerous with submissions off his back.

Cody picks Kakhramonov, highlighting his wrestling, size, and cardio. He notes Kelleher's wrestling won't be effective and Kakhramonov's striking is solid. He expects Kakhramonov to win by decision or TKO. He mentions Kakhramonov's bright future.

Daniel Levi picks Brian Kelleher, noting that Croom took the fight on two weeks' notice and tends to fade as fights progress. He acknowledges Croom's dangerous guillotine early, but believes Kelleher's durability and cardio will allow him to take over in later rounds. Levi also mentions Kelleher's improved grappling, as seen in his last fight against Domingo Pilarte where he used takedowns to control the fight.

The host picks Brian Kelleher, citing his veteran experience and takedown defense against the grappler Kakaromanov. He expects Kelleher to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually knocking out Kakaromanov. The host notes Kakaromanov's striking is still developing and that Kelleher's power and pressure will be too much. He also mentions the under 2.5 rounds as a good bet.

Paul picks Kakhramonov, citing his impressive debut, wrestling base, and size advantage. He notes Kelleher's path is a guillotine, but Kakhramonov's wrestling should nullify that. He expects Kakhramonov to win via decision or late TKO. He calls -155 a fair price.

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Croom (Saidyokub Kakhramonov) to win by third-round submission. He trusts Croom's stand-up and grappling awareness, noting that he handled Trevin Jones well and has good takedown defense. He believes Kelleher will struggle to get takedowns and will slow down as the fight goes on, leading to a desperate shot that Croom will capitalize on with a guillotine or D'Arce choke. He predicts Croom will defend takedowns early, then submit Kelleher in the third round.

Big Brady questions T.J. Brown's fight IQ, recalling his poor game plan against Danny Chavez. However, he notes Brown's striking improvements and training at Glory MMA with Bryce Mitchell. He thinks Brown can win if he mixes in takedowns against Benitez's 56% takedown defense, but he cannot trust Brown enough to bet him. He picks Brown as a dog pick but is not confident.

Cody leans toward Brown, citing the blueprint of taking Rosa down and holding him there. He notes Brown's wrestling should be effective. However, he is wary of Brown's low fight IQ and the short notice change. He calls -280 too risky for parlays.

Daniel Levi picks T.J. Brown, though he is uncomfortable laying -250. He notes that Brown is better than he has shown, but his chin is questionable and he gets dropped often. However, Levi believes Brown will outwork Charles Rosa, who is on short notice and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Brown's physicality and wrestling will be key, and that Rosa's best days are behind him. Levi expects Brown to win, possibly by finish.

The host picks Gabriel Benitez, praising his southpaw striking, body kicks, and leg kicks. He expects Benitez to use his technical striking to outwork T.J. Brown, who is more chaotic and less technical. The host notes Brown's power and BJJ but believes Benitez's cardio and striking accuracy will secure a decision. He compares the matchup to Brown's loss to Danny Chavez, where leg kicks were effective.

Paul leans toward Rosa as a dog, citing his win-loss streak pattern and submission threat. He notes Rosa's takedown defense is poor but Brown's fight IQ is low. He expects Rosa might catch Brown in a submission. He advises waiting for weigh-ins and possibly better odds.

The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa (Gabriel Benitez) to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Benitez has devastating kicks, especially calf kicks, which will slow Brown down early. Brown has shown problems with kicks in the past (e.g., against Danny Chavez). He expects Benitez to chop at the legs and body, then clip Brown with a big shot when Brown tries to make something happen. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Brown getting dropped with no base.