UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira

Angelo picks Holly Holm because she can turn the fight into a kickboxing match and has excellent takedown defense. He notes that Vieira's charging forward plays into Holm's counter-striking. He doesn't factor in the layoff because Holm has never been an active fighter. He expects a decision win for Holm and suggests a prop bet on Holm by decision.

Big Brady picks Holly Holm to win by decision, citing her superior striking, cardio, and competition level. He notes Vieira has a grappling advantage but doubts she can out-grapple Holm for five rounds. His only concern is Holm's age (40) and 19-month layoff, but he believes if she looks like she did against Irene Aldana, she should cruise. He sees no path to victory for Vieira unless Holm is old.

Cody believes Holly Holm's striking volume, improved wrestling, and five-round experience will be too much for Ketlen Vieira. He notes Holm's lateral mobility and speed, and that Vieira has been outstruck in most of her UFC fights. He is confident Holm wins but finds the -240 moneyline a bit steep, preferring to bet Holm by decision or late-round finishes.

The host discusses the main event but does not make a clear pick. He mentions Holly Holm's age and questions whether she can still compete at 40, but does not state a preference. He also notes that the fight could go to decision and includes it in a totals parlay (over 4.5 rounds), but does not pick a winner.

Paul likes Holly Holm to win but is hesitant due to the -240 price and Holm's age (40). He notes Holm's striking and improved wrestling, but says he doesn't love the moneyline. He is interested in sprinkling on Holm round 4 (+2500) and round 5 (+3000) if Vieira shows up like she did against Yana Kunitskaya, as Holm could finish her late.

The MMA Guru picks Holly Holm, citing her superior striking, conditioning, and athleticism. He thinks Ketlen Vieira lacks KO power and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Holm will lose the first round but win the next four via decision.

Angelo picks Michel Pereira because he believes Pereira is better everywhere: more power, versatility, 100% takedown defense, and improved cardio. He notes that Ponzinibbio has good range control but Pereira's power and technique will overcome that. He expects Pereira to win a decision, his fourth in five fights.

Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, favoring his pressure style and superior cardio. He notes Ponzinibbio throws combinations and leg kicks, while Pereira prefers to stick on the outside and may struggle with pressure. He expects Ponzinibbio to break Pereira as the fight goes on and win a close decision.

Cody leans Pereira because he believes Ponzinibbio hasn't looked the same since his eye injury, citing close fights with Miguel Baeza and Geoff Neal where he was outlanded in significant strikes. He notes Pereira has improved his cardio and fight IQ, mixing in takedowns and pacing himself. He thinks Pereira's chin is better and that he can land a big shot or wrestle, making him the fresher fighter.

The host discusses the fight but does not make a clear pick. He notes that Pereira is a bigger welterweight and that Ponzinibbio is a legitimate 170-pounder. He questions whether Pereira's size will be a factor and mentions that Ponzinibbio's takedown defense should be good enough. He does not express a preference for either fighter.

Paul does not give a clear pick for this fight. He says the line is perfectly accurate and both guys can win. He mentions Ponzinibbio's volume and pressure but notes he hasn't looked the same since his injury. He does not express a preference.

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, believing he has the cardio and durability to outlast Michel Pereira. He thinks Pereira's KO power is not enough to finish Ponzinibbio and that Pereira will fade in the later rounds. He predicts a third-round TKO for Ponzinibbio.

Angelo picks Chidi Njokuani because of his power, speed, and distance control. He notes that Todorović has questions about his chin and that Njokuani has solid takedown defense. He suggests a prop bet on Njokuani winning inside the distance, as he expects a finish.

Big Brady picks Chidi Njokuani to win by first-round knockout, citing Todorović's horrendous striking defense and tendency to keep his hands down. He notes Njokuani has power and improved takedown defense. He acknowledges Njokuani has been finished in the past but believes he has improved. He expects the fight to stay standing and Njokuani to land a knockout early.

Cody is impressed with Njokuani's improvements in grappling and cardio, noting his recent knockout of Marc-André Barriault. He highlights Todorović's poor head movement and susceptibility to getting hit, as seen in the Punahele Soriano fight. He believes Njokuani's striking acumen and upgraded ground game will lead to a finish, likely in the first two rounds.

The host predicts Duško Todorović via decision. He expects Todorović to control the fight by keeping Njokuani still and against the cage, leading to a potentially boring fight with a lot of control time. He is not fully confident, as he questions the pick slightly when discussing totals, but his official prediction is Todorović by decision.

Paul agrees with Cody, saying Njokuani's striking and improved cardio should be enough. He notes Todorović's defensive liabilities and that Njokuani likely lands a big strike in the first two rounds. He hates the moneyline at -220 but still picks Chidi.

The MMA Guru is very confident in Chidi Njokuani, citing his reach advantage and experience. He notes Duško Todorović leaves his chin up when exiting exchanges, and Njokuani's reach will allow him to land cleanly. He predicts a first-round KO for Njokuani.

Angelo picks Tabatha Ricci because she is a very good grappler with solid forward pressure and frequent takedowns. He notes that Viana is submission-or-bust and struggles with takedown accuracy. Ricci's last win at 115 pounds showed her takedown ability. Angelo expects Ricci to wrestle heavily and win a decision, and he plans to include her in his DraftKings lineup.

Big Brady picks Tabatha Ricci to win by decision, citing her superior wrestling and BJJ black belt. He notes Viana relies on pulling guard and submissions off her back, but Ricci is a legitimate black belt who should be able to avoid submissions and control the fight on the mat. He expects Ricci to take Viana down with little resistance and win a decision.

Cody picks Ricci, citing her wrestling, BJJ black belt, and better striking. He notes Viana's reliance on armbars from guard but believes Ricci's jiu-jitsu pedigree will prevent her from getting caught. He thinks Ricci can out-strike Viana, take her down, and win a decision, even if she fades in the third.

The host picks Tabatha Ricci to win, expecting her to grind out a victory. He notes that Viana is always live for a submission but does not think she gets it tonight. He believes Ricci's grappling and control time will be the difference, and he does not see the Viana side himself. He does not have a bet on Ricci but is confident in her winning.

Paul picks Ricci, saying she should have the wrestling to keep the fight upright and the grappling to avoid Viana's submissions. He notes Viana's craftiness off her back but believes Ricci is the side.

The MMA Guru picks Polyana Viana, citing her experience, size, and reach advantage. He thinks Tabatha Ricci is a small strawweight and may get overexcited on the ground, leading to a submission. He predicts an armbar win for Viana.

Angelo picks Eryk Anders because he believes Anders's toughness, power, and wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Park is the better overall fighter but lacks danger in his striking or submissions. Park relies on trips and pressure for takedowns, which Angelo doesn't think will work against Anders. He also suggests a plus 3.5 round bet on Anders.

Big Brady picks JunYong Park to win by decision, favoring his higher volume and striking defense over Eryk Anders. He notes Anders is a low-volume, one-shot-at-a-time striker with poor striking defense. He expects Park to outland Anders on the feet and win rounds. He acknowledges Anders could have success with takedowns but doubts he can hold Park down.

Cody picks Park, citing his better pace, ground game, and consistency. He criticizes Anders for low volume, lack of urgency, and getting outstruck in many fights. He believes Park will come forward, outland Anders, and grind out a decision. He is confident in the moneyline.

The host is uncertain about this fight. He notes that it could be volatile and come down to who is stronger, with Anders being the stronger fighter. He finds the Park line too wide but does not have the courage to bet Anders at plus money. He passes on betting the moneyline and instead considers the over 2.5 rounds, which he thinks is around -160.

Paul agrees with Cody, saying Park is the logical pick. He notes Anders' inconsistency and low volume, and that Park should be able to outwork him. He is with Cody on this one.

The MMA Guru picks JunYong Park, citing his superior cardio, leg kicks, and combination striking. He thinks Eryk Anders is a simple fighter and may have less power after trimming down. He believes Park's grappling defense and pace will be too much, predicting a 29-28 decision with Park taking the last two rounds.

Angelo picks Joseph Holmes because of his size, versatility, and ability to mix striking and grappling. He notes that Amedovski has been on a long layoff and has shown holes in his grappling. Holmes's length and takedown threat should open up his hands. Angelo will likely stay away from betting but trusts Holmes to get the win.

Big Brady picks Joseph Holmes to win by first-round submission, but calls it a sketchy fight between two low-level fighters. He notes Holmes has a size advantage and a brown belt in BJJ, while Amedovski has poor takedown defense and ground game. However, Amedovski hits hard and could knock Holmes out early. He says laying -200 on Holmes is not ideal.

Cody picks Holmes, citing his size advantage (6'4", 80-inch reach), youth (26), and multiple paths to victory. He notes Amedovski's poor takedown defense, lack of ground game, and three-year layoff. He believes Holmes' length, clinch knees, and improved cardio after a full camp will be too much for Amedovski.

The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He mentions Holmes in the context of live betting spots, suggesting Holmes after round one if grappling is heavy, but does not make a clear pick or provide analysis.

Paul is hesitant but leans Holmes. He notes Amedovski's terrible UFC performances and long layoff, but also acknowledges Holmes' green stand-up and cardio issues. He thinks Holmes' size and grappling should be enough, but is not fully confident.

The MMA Guru picks Joseph Holmes but is hesitant. He thinks Holmes has a massive advantage on the feet and will land good shots while Amedovski struggles with takedowns. He trusts Holmes more now that he has octagon experience. He predicts a second-round TKO with a fadeaway hook.

Angelo picks Parker Porter despite being biased as a friend. He believes Porter's pace, striking volume, and takedown defense will be key. He notes that Almeida is moving up from light heavyweight and has never gone to the third round, while Porter has cardio and heavy hips that make him hard to take down. He expects Porter to stuff takedowns and win a decision.

Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round TKO, expecting him to take down Parker Porter and finish quickly. He notes Almeida is a beast on the mat with vicious ground-and-pound, but admits there is no footage of his striking. He worries about Almeida's cardio if the fight extends, but believes Almeida will get the job done early. He says it's a sketchy fight and he is not betting it.

Cody likes Almeida's potential but sees red flags: moving up to heavyweight, facing a much larger opponent, and his cardio against a bigger guy. He notes Almeida's impressive finishes but thinks the price is too high. He considers using Almeida in parlays and mentions live betting opportunities if Almeida doesn't finish early.

The host discusses the fight but does not make a clear pick. He notes the size difference (41 pounds) and suggests Almeida should use his speed and athleticism to get a knockout rather than grinding for takedowns. He is not betting on Almeida due to the chalk, but he thinks Almeida will likely win. He also mentions that Porter could potentially get a DQ win or upset.

Paul thinks Almeida is the truth but is priced out. He notes Almeida's size and skills but worries about the weight class change and Porter's volume. He says he'll watch weigh-ins and might consider Porter by decision at +1400 as a small play.

The MMA Guru confidently picks Jailton Almeida, believing he will out-grapple Parker Porter. He notes Almeida's size and reach advantage, and thinks he can throw Porter around and get a submission. He predicts a first-round rear-naked choke win for Almeida.

Angelo picks Omar Morales because he believes Morales's strength and ability to mix in grappling will be the difference. He notes that Uroš Medić is a kill-or-be-killed first-round striker who has shown poor grappling defense. Morales needs to survive the first round and work takedowns to avoid danger. Angelo expects a decision win for Morales.

Big Brady picks Omar Morales to win by second-round submission, but expresses low confidence due to Morales' poor fight IQ. He notes Morales has a BJJ black belt and should take the fight to the mat to exploit Medić's weak ground game and cardio. However, he worries Morales might stand and trade, which would give Medić a knockout chance. He says he cannot trust Morales at -160.

Cody picks Morales, citing his durability, experience, and return to lightweight where he performed best. He notes Medić's tendency to fade after the first round and lack of deep fight experience. He expects Morales to weather an early storm and take over as Medić tires, possibly winning by decision or late finish.

The host does not make a clear pick for this fight. He mentions it as a potential live bet spot (Medic after round one) and includes it in a totals parlay (under 2.5 rounds), but does not state a winner.

Paul agrees with Cody, saying Morales' durability and return to lightweight should be key. He notes Medić's early explosiveness but thinks Morales can survive and take over. He is confident in Morales.

The MMA Guru picks Omar Morales, citing his toughness and durability. He worries about Uroš Medić's cardio and thinks Morales can survive the early storm and take over in later rounds. He notes Morales has a reach advantage and can pressure Medić in the second and third rounds. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision for Morales.

Angelo picks Jonathan Martinez but is hesitant because he thinks Vince Morales's pressure style could cause problems. He notes that Martinez looked terrible in his last fight against Alejandro Perez, only kicking and crumbling under pressure. However, he believes Martinez is the better overall fighter and will squeak out a win. He also mentions a prop bet on Vince Morales winning a round via a plus 3.5 round bet.

Big Brady picks Jonathan Martinez to win by decision, favoring his diverse striking (leg kicks, body kicks, head kicks) over Vince Morales. He notes Morales has a wrestling background but rarely uses it, and the fight should stay standing. He questions Martinez's chin but believes his volume and kicks will be too much. He does not like the -220 price but picks Martinez to win.

Cody leans Martinez but is wary of his tendency to get caught in fights. He notes Martinez's leg kick game should be effective against Morales, who is susceptible to low kicks. However, he acknowledges Morales' durability and underdog success, making this a tough call.

The host picks Jonathan Martinez to win. He believes Martinez's kicking game, including leg kicks, body kicks, and head kicks, will be the difference. He thinks Morales has a puncher's chance but will get stuck on the end of Martinez's strikes and be outworked. He does not expect the fight to be as close as some people think.

Paul does not give a clear pick. He discusses both sides, noting Martinez's leg kicks and Morales' durability and underdog value. He says he is struggling to pull the trigger on either side.

The MMA Guru sides with Jonathan Martinez, citing his technical striking on the outside and experience. He acknowledges Vince Morales has power but notes Morales hasn't lived up to his KO reputation in the UFC. He trusts Martinez not to make a mistake and get KO'd, predicting a unanimous decision with some hairy moments.

Angelo picks Felipe Colares because he believes Colares's determination and forward pressure will overwhelm Chase Hooper. He criticizes Hooper's reliance on BJJ tricks without wrestling to get the fight to the ground, and notes that Colares is a black belt who can handle Hooper's jiu-jitsu. He also points out that Hooper crumbles under pressure, as seen in his last fight against Steve Peterson.

Big Brady picks Chase Hooper for the upset, citing Hooper's youth, size advantage (6 inches reach), and potential improvements after an 11-month layoff. He is not impressed with Felipe Colares as a -180 favorite, noting Colares' poor wrestling and striking. He expects a very close, competitive decision win for Hooper but is not betting this fight.

Cody leans Hooper as a live underdog, citing his size advantage (6'1" vs 5'8"), potential improvements after a year off, and Colares' susceptibility to being taken down. He thinks Hooper could use his length to grapple and control Colares, but acknowledges Hooper's poor striking and wrestling in the past. He is not confident but sees a path.

The host picks Felipe Colares to win. He mentions that Hooper's only path to victory is by submission, and he thinks Colares will be able to avoid that. He does not elaborate further but clearly favors Colares.

Paul does not give a clear pick. He says he can see the argument for Hooper at plus money but is struggling to get there. He notes Colares' grappling and Hooper's flaws.

The MMA Guru cannot pick Chase Hooper to win, citing his lack of strength and poor stand-up. He believes Felipe Colares is tough, durable, and knows how not to get finished. He thinks Hooper needs a finish to win but Colares is too tough to be submitted or knocked out. He predicts a unanimous decision for Colares, 30-27.

Angelo picks Sam Hughes based on her grappling performance in her last fight, where she showcased takedowns and control time. He notes that Elise Reed was taken down four times in two fights, making the takedown the difference. However, he acknowledges it's a close fight and that Elise Reed is better than people think. He is hesitant because both women are coming off career-saving wins.

Big Brady picks Elise Reed because she is the better striker with improved takedown defense. He notes Sam Hughes is a walking punching bag with poor striking defense, and Reed should win on the feet. He predicts a decision win for Reed but says he is not betting on this fight.

Cody picks Reed confidently, citing her superior striking, footwork, and cardio. He notes Hughes' lack of offense and tendency to rely on opponents gassing. He believes Reed will outpoint Hughes from range and avoid takedowns, winning a decision.

The host picks Sam Hughes as his free pick of the night at +145. He believes Hughes's path to victory involves grappling, either takedowns or control time against the cage. He expects Hughes to implement her grappling and grind out a win. He is confident enough to bet one unit on her.

Paul agrees with Cody, saying Reed's kicking game and cardio should be too much for Hughes. He notes Hughes' only win came against a gassed opponent and that Reed won't tire. He is confident in Reed.

The MMA Guru believes Elise Reed is better on the feet and can mitigate damage on the ground, working her way back up. He thinks Sam Hughes will get takedowns but the damage from Reed's striking will be too much. He predicts a razor close 29-28 decision for Reed.