UFC Fight Night: Magomedsharipov vs. Kattar · Nov 09, 2019 · Welterweight · Completed
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Age 35
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - David Zawada
3.84 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
4.54 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.97 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
57.0% TD Def.
1.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Abubakar Nurmagomedov
2.78 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
2.61 SApM
65.0% Str. Def.
1.25 TD Avg
22.0% TD Acc.
88.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
David Zawada - Fight History
LOSS vs Alex Morono
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · Sep 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 90 of 213 42% 96 of 219 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:06
David Zawada 0 86 of 205 41% 91 of 210 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 37 of 84 44% 39 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
David Zawada 0 33 of 83 39% 34 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alex Morono 0 29 of 76 38% 29 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
David Zawada 0 31 of 74 41% 31 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alex Morono 0 24 of 53 45% 28 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
David Zawada 0 22 of 48 45% 26 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 90 of 213 42% 81 of 200 8 of 12 1 of 1 84 of 204 6 of 9 0 of 0
David Zawada 86 of 205 41% 39 of 150 41 of 48 6 of 7 77 of 187 9 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 37 of 84 44% 32 of 79 4 of 4 1 of 1 33 of 77 4 of 7 0 of 0
David Zawada 33 of 83 39% 19 of 66 13 of 15 1 of 2 27 of 73 6 of 10 0 of 0
2 Alex Morono 29 of 76 38% 26 of 71 3 of 5 0 of 0 29 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
David Zawada 31 of 74 41% 11 of 51 16 of 19 4 of 4 30 of 69 1 of 5 0 of 0
3 Alex Morono 24 of 53 45% 23 of 50 1 of 3 0 of 0 22 of 51 2 of 2 0 of 0
David Zawada 22 of 48 45% 9 of 33 12 of 14 1 of 1 20 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady picks Alex Morono to win by knockout, favoring Morono's higher volume (5.05 sig strikes/min) and positive strike differential. He notes Zawada is dangerous with power and submissions, but has poor takedown defense and has been controlled on the ground. Brady thinks Morono can take Zawada down if needed and has never been submitted. He expects Morono's volume and striking to be the difference, leading to a knockout win.

Morono by knockout
"i'll take morono to win and i'll take him to win ah i'll go knock out i'll go knockout win for alex moreno"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Cody picks Morono by decision, citing Morono's higher volume and better striking. He notes Zawada's low volume and reliance on takedowns, but thinks Morono's BJJ is good enough to defend and get back up. He expects a close fight going the distance and likes the over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds (-175), Morono by decision
"my official pick is going to be alex moreno alex moreno by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Alex Morono

I think Morono is the better fighter here—he keeps an incredibly high pace, is durable, and has beaten better competition. Zawada is defensively void and easy to hit. However, I have concerns about Morono's wrestling; he got taken down multiple times by Max Griffin. But Zawada's takedowns aren't elite, and Morono has good jiu-jitsu to get back up. I think Morono wins by decision, and the fight goes the distance. I like the over 2.5 rounds and Morono by decision.

Over 2.5 rounds -170, Morono by decision +180, Fight goes to decision -150
"I think Morono is the better fighter here... I think putting a line on it for me I think the line's about right... I like the fight goes to decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul sees it as a close to pick'em fight and is staying away. He notes Morono's durability issues and Zawada's low volume, but thinks if you got Zawada at +155 earlier it's a good shot. He doesn't make a firm pick.

"it's a stay away from me but props to the people who got like plus 155."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono to win by decision. He believes Morono is tough and can grind out a win, despite taking the fight on short notice. He notes Zawada's submission win over a Nurmagomedov but thinks Morono's durability and experience will carry him to a 29-28 unanimous decision.

"i'm going with alex morono here i know he took this one on short notice but i think that's a safe bet"
LOSS vs Ramazan Emeev
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar · Jan 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ramazan Emeev 0 44 of 114 38% 114 of 190 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:06
David Zawada 0 53 of 101 52% 101 of 160 4 of 9 44% 0 1 4:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ramazan Emeev 0 17 of 43 39% 41 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
David Zawada 0 21 of 41 51% 39 of 61 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:33
2 Ramazan Emeev 0 17 of 49 34% 33 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
David Zawada 0 18 of 39 46% 31 of 56 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:30
3 Ramazan Emeev 0 10 of 22 45% 40 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
David Zawada 0 14 of 21 66% 31 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ramazan Emeev 44 of 114 38% 24 of 88 6 of 10 14 of 16 30 of 90 13 of 23 1 of 1
David Zawada 53 of 101 52% 36 of 81 13 of 15 4 of 5 36 of 82 12 of 14 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ramazan Emeev 17 of 43 39% 7 of 30 4 of 7 6 of 6 10 of 31 7 of 12 0 of 0
David Zawada 21 of 41 51% 12 of 31 7 of 8 2 of 2 11 of 30 8 of 9 2 of 2
2 Ramazan Emeev 17 of 49 34% 9 of 39 2 of 3 6 of 7 12 of 40 4 of 8 1 of 1
David Zawada 18 of 39 46% 12 of 32 5 of 6 1 of 1 13 of 33 4 of 5 1 of 1
3 Ramazan Emeev 10 of 22 45% 8 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 3 8 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0
David Zawada 14 of 21 66% 12 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 2 12 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Ramazan Emeev

Big Brady picks Ramazan Emeev to win by grinding decision. He notes that Emeev has better wrestling and cardio, but Zawada is dangerous off his back and on the feet. He thinks Emeev will get takedowns and control the fight, but warns that Zawada is a finisher and Emeev has been knocked out and submitted before. He says he wouldn't bet on it and would leave Emeev out of parlays.

"i'm going to take ramadan and move to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ramazan Emeev

Daniel Levi picks Ramazan Emeev via decision, citing Emeev's patient clinch-heavy style and Zawada's grappling mistakes and poor cardio. He notes Zawada is exciting but makes too many errors, and Emeev has never been bullied. He expects Emeev to avoid big shots and win a decision.

via decision
"i'll go with ramazan and via decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Ramazan Emeev

Emeev is an efficient fighter with a good mix of striking, clinch, and takedowns. He has low output but lands effective shots, especially his right hand. However, his takedowns can leave him vulnerable to submissions, which is a concern against a high-level jiu-jitsu player like Zawada. Zawada has shown he can pull off upsets, but his striking is less technical. Emeev should win a striking battle and has better cardio. The line is too high for a lock, but Emeev is a solid parlay piece.

Emeev by decision is the prediction; he is a possible parlay piece.
"i still think he goes out there and gets his hand raised so i'll go with ramazan and me to win this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Ramazan Emeev

The MMA Guru picks Ramazan Emeev over David Zawada, arguing that Zawada's losses to lower-level competition (like Danny Roberts) indicate he's not ready for Emeev. He uses MMA math comparing their common opponents (Anthony Rocco Martin and Li Jingliang) to suggest Emeev is the better fighter. He also notes Emeev's reach advantage despite being shorter.

"i'm going to go with rama's anime i think he's a little bit more well-rounded and i think he'll get the job done against zawada in this fight"
Submission (triangle choke) R1 2:50 · UFC Fight Night: Magomedsharipov vs. Kattar · Nov 09, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
David Zawada 0 4 of 9 44% 22 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:50
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 2 of 11 18% 25 of 34 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 David Zawada 0 4 of 9 44% 22 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:50
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 2 of 11 18% 25 of 34 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
David Zawada 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 2 of 11 18% 0 of 7 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 David Zawada 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 2 of 11 18% 0 of 7 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Li Jingliang
TKO (body kick and punches) R3 4:07 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · Nov 24, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Li Jingliang 1 89 of 222 40% 97 of 234 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:16
David Zawada 1 73 of 184 39% 74 of 185 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Li Jingliang 0 13 of 41 31% 21 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:15
David Zawada 1 24 of 55 43% 25 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
2 Li Jingliang 0 40 of 97 41% 40 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
David Zawada 0 31 of 83 37% 31 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Li Jingliang 1 36 of 84 42% 36 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
David Zawada 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Li Jingliang 89 of 222 40% 59 of 183 10 of 11 20 of 28 81 of 204 3 of 12 5 of 6
David Zawada 73 of 184 39% 52 of 159 19 of 23 2 of 2 63 of 162 10 of 20 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Li Jingliang 13 of 41 31% 10 of 36 1 of 2 2 of 3 9 of 31 0 of 6 4 of 4
David Zawada 24 of 55 43% 15 of 46 9 of 9 0 of 0 16 of 40 8 of 13 0 of 2
2 Li Jingliang 40 of 97 41% 23 of 77 6 of 6 11 of 14 40 of 95 0 of 2 0 of 0
David Zawada 31 of 83 37% 22 of 72 8 of 10 1 of 1 30 of 80 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Li Jingliang 36 of 84 42% 26 of 70 3 of 3 7 of 11 32 of 78 3 of 4 1 of 2
David Zawada 18 of 46 39% 15 of 41 2 of 4 1 of 1 17 of 42 1 of 4 0 of 0
LOSS vs Danny Roberts
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · Jul 22, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Danny Roberts 0 45 of 87 51% 68 of 117 0 of 2 0% 1 0 8:47
David Zawada 0 33 of 64 51% 63 of 99 2 of 5 40% 5 1 2:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Danny Roberts 0 19 of 40 47% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:29
David Zawada 0 14 of 24 58% 26 of 37 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:03
2 Danny Roberts 0 5 of 12 41% 16 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:31
David Zawada 0 8 of 21 38% 20 of 37 2 of 2 100% 2 1 1:44
3 Danny Roberts 0 21 of 35 60% 31 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:47
David Zawada 0 11 of 19 57% 17 of 25 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Danny Roberts 45 of 87 51% 32 of 73 6 of 6 7 of 8 14 of 45 1 of 1 30 of 41
David Zawada 33 of 64 51% 21 of 51 10 of 11 2 of 2 18 of 48 10 of 11 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Danny Roberts 19 of 40 47% 12 of 33 5 of 5 2 of 2 7 of 22 1 of 1 11 of 17
David Zawada 14 of 24 58% 7 of 17 5 of 5 2 of 2 7 of 17 6 of 6 1 of 1
2 Danny Roberts 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 3
David Zawada 8 of 21 38% 7 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 16 1 of 1 4 of 4
3 Danny Roberts 21 of 35 60% 15 of 28 1 of 1 5 of 6 5 of 14 0 of 0 16 of 21
David Zawada 11 of 19 57% 7 of 15 4 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 15 3 of 4 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov - Fight History
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 29 of 54 53% 48 of 76 1 of 8 12% 0 0 6:16
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 42 of 113 37% 50 of 132 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 12 of 16 75% 15 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:39
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 10 of 34 29% 10 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 5 of 16 31% 20 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:20
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 14 of 32 43% 19 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 12 of 22 54% 13 of 23 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:17
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 18 of 47 38% 21 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 29 of 54 53% 13 of 37 6 of 7 10 of 10 23 of 48 6 of 6 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 42 of 113 37% 16 of 75 13 of 22 13 of 16 27 of 87 15 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 12 of 16 75% 5 of 9 2 of 2 5 of 5 6 of 10 6 of 6 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 10 of 34 29% 3 of 21 5 of 10 2 of 3 5 of 22 5 of 12 0 of 0
2 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 5 of 16 31% 2 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 14 of 32 43% 3 of 17 4 of 6 7 of 9 10 of 26 4 of 6 0 of 0
3 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 12 of 22 54% 6 of 15 2 of 3 4 of 4 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 18 of 47 38% 10 of 37 4 of 6 4 of 4 12 of 39 6 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Nurmagomedov, citing the long layoff for Zaleski (1.5 years) and Nurmagomedov's wrestling pressure. He thinks Zaleski tends to lose to wrestlers and has been taken down by non-wrestlers. Angelo bet Nurmagomedov at +120 for a quarter unit. He acknowledges the line is tightening but still favors the active fighter.

Bet 0.25 units on Nurmagomedov at +120.
"I like him in this matchup I picked him I bet him early I got him at plus 120"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Nurmagomedov, citing Zaleski's poor takedown defense (67%) and history of being taken down by wrestlers. He notes Zaleski has never faced a wrestler like Nurmagomedov, and that his long layoff and past drug test issues are red flags. Cody thinks Nurmagomedov's wrestling will be enough to grind out a win, even if he's not a high-volume takedown artist.

"I'm not under Santa's guy so normally made of definitely the worst of the normagamedovs that's still pretty good right so I will take"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Connor picks Zaleski despite acknowledging Abubakar's wrestling advantage, because he believes Abubakar's poor athleticism and tendency to gas will lead to a fade. He notes that Zaleski is a physical freak who doesn't fall apart easily, and that Abubakar's wrestling often leads to his own cardio issues. Connor expects Zaleski to rally after an initial tough round, possibly winning by KO as Abubakar tires.

Odds shift from Zaleski -142 to -103, Abubakar +128 to -107
"I'm gonna pick zalaski. I think abubakar will fade and zalaski will rally"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Daniel picks Abubakar, citing Zaleski's age (36) and recent PED suspension as reasons he may not look the same. He believes Abubakar is catching him at the perfect time and can outwork him with a grinding decision. He notes that Zaleski has historically been a violence king, but the suspension and age are major concerns.

"I'm actually going abubakar nor magomedov and I'm considering a bet"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Jacob picks Zaleski, believing his leg kicks and striking will neutralize Nurmagomedov's takedowns. He thinks Zaleski's performance against Saint Denis showed improved takedown defense. Jacob notes Nurmagomedov is flat-footed and not overly dominant in wrestling. He expects Zaleski to light up the lead leg and win by finish or decision.

"I'm going zoleski all the way I'm pretty confident in him in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov has shown improved striking and a reliable grappling game. Zaleski is dangerous but coming off a long layoff and suspension. Nurmagomedov will land takedowns, control from top, and grind out a decision. Zaleski could pull off a submission or knockout, but the Dagestani wrestler is the safer pick.

"I'm gonna lean with the more reliable fighter in nuremaga made of gimme him to win by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Paul picks Zaleski dos Santos as a slight underdog. He notes the line movement to Nurmagomedov as favorite is undeserved, and that Zaleski is the more dangerous striker with freakish power. Paul mentions Zaleski's takedown defense is a concern, but he thinks if the fight stays standing, Zaleski has a significant advantage. He also notes Zaleski's long layoff and past drug test issues but still sides with him.

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by KO at +400; Over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I'm interested in Elijah's zoleski dos Santos he could get himself in trouble throwing a bunch of spinning stuff getting taken down in that way but it's like if you're on abubakar I feel like while they're on the feet …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov, comparing the matchup to a knockoff Khabib vs Edson Barboza. He notes that Zaleski dos Santos throws a lot of kicks on the back foot and lacks pace, and hasn't fought since October 2021 (over a year and a half off). He believes Nurmagomedov's grappling, pressure, and pace will be the difference, though he acknowledges Nurmagomedov has had iffy performances. He thinks the grappling of Nurmagomedov gets the win.

"I'm gonna go with Abu Bakr name again of I think it's the logical match up here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov based on his strong positional grappling and wrestling advantage. He notes that Zaleski has poor takedown defense, having been taken down six times by Nicolas Dalby, and that few opponents have tested his wrestling since. Zane believes Abubakar's takedowns and top control will be decisive, though he acknowledges Abubakar's cardio issues could be a factor if he fails to finish early.

"I am going to take namaga made off"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 40 of 67 59% 76 of 104 1 of 4 25% 0 0 7:55
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 0 38 of 99 38% 79 of 142 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 7 of 14 50% 33 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:57
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 0 13 of 25 52% 36 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
2 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 15 33% 13 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:51
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 0 9 of 21 42% 23 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
3 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 28 of 38 73% 30 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:07
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 0 16 of 53 30% 20 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 40 of 67 59% 29 of 55 5 of 6 6 of 6 36 of 61 3 of 4 1 of 2
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 38 of 99 38% 22 of 69 13 of 26 3 of 4 25 of 81 12 of 14 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 7 of 14 50% 5 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 13 of 25 52% 7 of 16 4 of 6 2 of 3 5 of 16 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 5 of 15 33% 4 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 2
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 9 of 21 42% 2 of 11 7 of 10 0 of 0 8 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 4
3 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 28 of 38 73% 20 of 29 3 of 4 5 of 5 27 of 36 1 of 2 0 of 0
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 16 of 53 30% 13 of 42 2 of 10 1 of 1 12 of 48 4 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Big Brady picks the underdog Omargadzhiev, citing Nurmagomedov's inactivity (only two fights in three years) and tendency to drop the ball as a favorite. He notes Omargadzhiev looked impressive outside the UFC but had a poor debut; he expects a better version to show up. He predicts Omargadzhiev catches Nurmagomedov in a submission, possibly a 'club and sub' off his back.

submission
"I'm going to say Omar Gods you have catches DeMarco metal in something I'm going to say he catches them in a submission maybe a club and sub maybe something off his back"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Cody leans Omargadzhiev, noting that Abubakar is the weakest of the Nurmagomedov family. He thinks Omargadzhiev has better stand-up and power, and that Abubakar's takedowns may not be effective. Cody is not confident and says it's a dog-or-pass situation.

"I think I'm leaning towards or magazine like you're saying coming down from 85 to 170 she should have that strength advantage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Daniel Levi picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov to win by decision. He thinks Abubakar's fundamentally sound Russian style will be enough against Gadzhi Omargadzhiev, who he is not sold on. Levi notes that Omargadzhiev's regional fights are suspect and that Abubakar showed a jab-heavy game plan in his last fight. He expects Abubakar to grind out a decision.

"give me abubakar for the win"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Paul is confident in Omargadzhiev, calling Abubakar overrated. He notes Omargadzhiev's submission skills and that Abubakar has been submitted before. Paul likes the plus money and has already bet Omargadzhiev at +150. He also likes Omargadzhiev by submission at +1050.

Omargadzhiev by submission (+1050)
"I had already added gazio magaziev um plus 150 on the money line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

The MMA Guru picks underdog Gadzhi Omargadzhiev over Abubakar Nurmagomedov. He believes Abubakar is past his prime and not as skilled as other Nurmagomedovs, while Omargadzhiev is moving to a more suitable weight class (170 lbs). He predicts a late-round submission win, likely a rear-naked choke, as the fight gets sloppy.

late rounds submission win, rear naked choke
"I'm going to go with like a late rounds submission win for gazio margazia"
WIN vs Jared Gooden
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 · Mar 27, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 43 of 136 31% 111 of 207 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gooden 0 60 of 120 50% 100 of 164 1 of 5 20% 0 0 4:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 14 of 49 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gooden 0 23 of 42 54% 23 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
2 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 17 of 62 27% 17 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gooden 0 30 of 63 47% 30 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 12 of 25 48% 80 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gooden 0 7 of 15 46% 47 of 59 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 43 of 136 31% 30 of 110 12 of 25 1 of 1 35 of 127 3 of 3 5 of 6
Jared Gooden 60 of 120 50% 45 of 105 9 of 9 6 of 6 56 of 115 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 14 of 49 28% 12 of 42 2 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Gooden 23 of 42 54% 12 of 31 7 of 7 4 of 4 22 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 17 of 62 27% 9 of 47 7 of 14 1 of 1 17 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Gooden 30 of 63 47% 28 of 61 1 of 1 1 of 1 27 of 60 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 12 of 25 48% 9 of 21 3 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 17 2 of 2 5 of 6
Jared Gooden 7 of 15 46% 5 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov to win by dominant decision (30-27). He believes Nurmagomedov's wrestling will be the key, as Gooden can be taken down and controlled easily. He notes that Gooden has submissions on his record but thinks Nurmagomedov will avoid playing on the feet. However, he says he probably wouldn't bet the -235 line due to Nurmagomedov's mistakes in his last fight.

Nurmagomedov by decision 30-27
"i'm gonna take nirmangamedev to be good in here ... i'm gonna say your magametto beats goodin 30 27"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

Cody leans towards Gooden as a live underdog, noting that Abubakar's price is inflated by his last name. He thinks Gooden has better striking and a reach advantage, and that Abubakar's chin is questionable. He is considering a play on Gooden but wants to see weigh-ins first.

Gooden by submission +1200 (considered)
"jared gooden at that price plus 205. and it keeps growing that's that's probably what we're doing"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

Daniel Levi picks Jared Gooden to get his first UFC win. He acknowledges Gooden's struggles with wrestlers but believes he has worked tirelessly to patch that hole in his game at ATT. Levi criticizes Abubakar as a lesser version of the Dagestani style with no stand-up and a questionable chin. He thinks Gooden will get back to his feet and knock Abubakar out.

knockout
"i think that saturday night he's finally going to get over that wrestler hump finally you know get back up to his feet and knock this guy out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

The host hesitantly picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov to win by decision. He notes that Abubakar has a 'Nurmagomedov tax' on his line and is not impressed with his grappling or cardio. He thinks Abubakar will struggle to get Gooden down and keep him there, but Gooden's cardio and durability are also question marks. He mentions Gooden's KO power at +650 as a potential sprinkle, but ultimately expects Abubakar to grind out a decision if he can get takedowns.

Jared Gooden KO +650 (sprinkle); under 2.5 (+155) is a possibility
"I'll go with abubakar to win by decision... not the most confident"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Paul leans towards Abubakar but thinks the price is way off. He notes that Abubakar has good wrestling and cardio, and that Gooden is hittable. However, he is not confident because Abubakar's chin is suspect and he has been knocked out before. He calls it a dogger pass situation.

"i think i'm gonna end up taking nurmagomedov but the price is way off at 240"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

The Guru picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision, citing his takedown advantage and better competition. He criticizes Jared Gooden's takedown defense and lack of impressive wins. He expects a sloppy fight with Nurmagomedov dictating the pace with wrestling, taking Gooden down whenever it gets risky on the feet. He notes Nurmagomedov is the worst of the Nurmagomedovs but still good enough to win.

"i'm going to go with abba kabanermedov i think he's going to have a real advantage here in the takedowns"
LOSS vs David Zawada
Submission (triangle choke) R1 2:50 · UFC Fight Night: Magomedsharipov vs. Kattar · Nov 09, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
David Zawada 0 4 of 9 44% 22 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:50
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 2 of 11 18% 25 of 34 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 David Zawada 0 4 of 9 44% 22 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:50
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 2 of 11 18% 25 of 34 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
David Zawada 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 2 of 11 18% 0 of 7 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 David Zawada 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 2 of 11 18% 0 of 7 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0